Market Outlook – 7.18.16

Michael Murphy
2016-07-18
18
Jul 16

Although the S&P 500 futures are up five points in overnight trading as I write, I’m expecting a consolidation week to build up the energy for the next leg up. That could mean sideways action just under the highs, but it is more likely to mean a drop back to the 2116 breakout level to flush out some of the hot money and keep the bears from realizing they’ve made a mistake. The subsequent rally is likely to last into September.

Gold has calmed down with the news that the coup in Turkey failed. I still think it has a date with the retracement level at $1,302. The fractal energy will then support a recovery to a second “bonk” against $1,400. The usual pattern is three bonks and then a breakout.

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TC401K
TC401K

First -thanks Michael!

zman
zman

troisieme

Donald Galamaga
Donald Galamaga

4th Good morning all. Media day today is a shambles of Turkey,, Baton Rouge,, Republican Convention and market trying to figure out whether BOA did OK or not., Best wishes for some clarity.

Chris
Chris

Always nice to see someone paying down debt:

On July 15, 2016, Coeur Mining, Inc. (“Coeur” or the “Company”) terminated its Credit Agreement, dated June 23, 2015, by and among the Company, certain subsidiaries of the Company, the lenders party thereto and Barclays Bank Plc as administrative agent (the “Term Loan Credit Agreement”). In connection with the termination, Coeur repaid the $99.0 million remaining principal balance of the term loan plus a $4.4 million prepayment penalty, for a total of $103.4 million.

Donald Galamaga
Donald Galamaga

@Michael Murphy and all. Question: With Brexit and the UK having notified the EU and ARTH doing its trial in Ireland, do you foresee a problem with getting a CME Mark by ARTH?

shawn
shawn

Donald Galamaga, What does Brexit have to do with The Republic of Ireland and ARTH? Hope you are not assuming that Ireland remains under the boot of the interloper.

StephKam
StephKam

@JIM007–
I still have a small piece of OPTT, but since the reverse split (making it an even smaller piece) I have not considered averaging down to ameliorate my losses. I just let it accumulate (or languish) at the bottom of my portfolio, more as another reminder to be more careful than in hopes of recovery. It amuses me when OPTT or QUIK or DRWI or TWER have a sizable move, but it doesn’t affect me much in dollars.

oldster3
oldster3

TASR…
http://elite.finviz.com/quote.ashx?t=tasr
—- Taking profits, she’ll not likely keep that GAP, and her CEO see’s to it that she won’t make much money…..

oldster3
oldster3

StephKam,
—- How about IFNY, SQNM, and assorted other losers….??

oldster3
oldster3

shawn,
IMO, real problems for what used to be called Great Britain….. How could Cameron, the politician, have gotten it all so wrong…???

Donald Galamaga
Donald Galamaga

@shawn. Good question. Up until Brexit, I would assume that ARTH would be filing by having done its research with a member nation of the EU. I don’t know this for sure, but the rules and length of time for review might be different for non EU member research. Hence my query.

StephKam
StephKam

@oldster3 —
Yes, those too, even smaller.

shawn
shawn

Hi Donald, still confused a touch which is commonplace for me, sadly. Ireland is and continues to be a member of The EU. CURAM is based in Galway. Sure, it may take longer to obtain regulatory approval in Britain once they leave The EU but ARTH’s device, hopefully, will be waist deep into the market by then. Slainte

jcs
jcs

ARTH Medical approvals for the common market is a combine between Britain, France and Germany who make the evaluations. After they do make recommendations, the rest of the common market reportedly tend to go along with it. I would assume this triad will continue to work on evaluation for some time as Britain has not even submitted the paperwork. Unwinding that will take some time…………….. Oncr they get the CE Mark they should have relationships for this and perhaps some of the other 200 patentable applications/variations the reported have. And the US application mess should be lessened by their market… Read more »

shawn
shawn

Thanks JCS, that certainly helps clear things up.

Donald Galamaga
Donald Galamaga

@Shawn and @jcs. Slainte. I think you are both right. Forgive my thoughts of a problem on this but it seems I wasn’t the only person wrong. http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/uk/2016/07/brexit-minister-david-davis-thinks-republic-ireland-part-uk But then this topic of a unified Ireland has come up, which brings the topic of “out of the EU” up again. http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-what-it-means-for-northern-ireland-united-eu-referendum-result-irish-passport-a7117166.html My wife, who is Irish and her relatives tell me how privileged I am to be associated with the Irish. Couldn’t agree more. Roommate in College-all 4 years…Patrick Francis Foley.(good man) Wedding Party Navy colleague; Dan O’Leary (fine officer) Thanks for helping me see this thru…though Irelands might become… Read more »

Chris
Chris
oldster3
oldster3
StephKam
StephKam

Let me draw your attention to The Arch Flash Crash Analysis from iHub as it explains what happened on 7/14/16 to ARTH:
http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=123954419
Interesting insight into the timing of exercise of warrants.

lawrence naresh
lawrence naresh

oldster , any news on your pick VRX ?

joey
joey

Hi Mike: What is the buy/target price on PZG; also, the same for ARTH?
Thanks, for your usual fine advice.
Joey

GUILLERMO BERCHELMANN
GUILLERMO BERCHELMANN

Michael, Same request as Joey above for PZG & ARTH
Thanks in Advance!

Chris
Chris

OPTT up like a rocket today. Looking at the earnings transcript, I wish I could buy some Puts on it. Woof-woof!!!

Chris
Chris

Also looked in on AXPW. The new president seems like Michael Scott from The Office.

Donald Galamaga
Donald Galamaga

@Chris and All Remember Aethlon (AEMD) and the hemopurifier? Rather interesting transcript of their recent progress and trials both with the device and in the use of exosome measurements to locate and attack multiple viruses and cancers.
http://seekingalpha.com/article/3985370-aethlon-medicals-aemd-ceo-jim-joyce-q4-2016-results-earnings-call-transcript
Re: TWER, the volume almost equals the entire new outstanding today. Either a leak on results or a pursuer to scoff up the company.

Donald Galamaga
Donald Galamaga

One more thing. If I can read the ARTH buy/ask numbers now, it looks like some machine or person wants to unload about 9,5 million shares @.62 cents but there is only an ask of about 100,000 shares @62.5 cents. Hmmm. Just chipped off about 100k at 62.4 cents. Now down to .62 cents with an ask of .62.4 with a fiv million sell at .62 and 200,000 ask at .62.4.. Just really interested at these last minute machinations.

Chris
Chris

@GALAMAGA, What a coincidence. I just read that AEMD transcript today also. Looks like they are moving along in good shape.

oldster3
oldster3

lawrence naresh,
*****oldster , any news on your pick VRX ? *****
http://elite.finviz.com/quote.ashx?t=VRX&ty=c&ta=0&p=i15
—- Not presently “in it” and haven’t been for a while now…….reasons are numerous…. Took profits a while back.
+
GILD….
http://elite.finviz.com/quote.ashx?t=GILD&ty=c&ta=0&p=w
—- Market’s treating GILD like a piece of CRAP……it is nonsensical …..so, won’t dabble into biotechs right now…..
+
+
Both national party candidates have pledged ( as if that is even meaningful…) to bring down the costs of a great many drugs — so the “FEARS” of the market will be focused in the direction of “profit losses”

oldster3
oldster3

http://acacia-inc.com/
+
http://elite.finviz.com/quote.ashx?t=acia&ty=c&ta=0&p=w
—- Quite the ipo response…… anyone know anything about this gobbledigook…??

jcs
jcs

oldster3: acacia (as in the tropical tree) seems to have made a splash as undercutting a lot of existing playersl. Note their change of hands, membership of board and management. And the splash of the IPO – considering that IPOs have been a dead market………….See f
irms web based anual report = lots of info.
This mighy be a case of distruptive product (not quite disruptive technology.

Michael
Michael

@oldster, thanks for the JDST tip .. bought some to hedge some miner plays the other day. Working great but not gonna hold too long.

Opie
Opie

E*TRADE lists TWER short interest as a percent of float as 113%! Never noticed a short interest number that high.
Gross margin 79%.
Share volume and on balance volume rapidly increasing. The saying goes that increasing volume precedes increasing share price.
IF TWER does increase business per building, we could see a wicked increase in share price.
Or if they can’t deliver many new customers per building, could be “hopium”, as oldster likes to say.

StephKam
StephKam

OPTTimal

saxophones2
saxophones2
oldster3
oldster3

saxophones2,
Hi guy…..
KERX…
——Murph’s original purchase price was, how to say.., not OPTTimal
heh, heh,,,,

Zachary Haney
Zachary Haney

@sax yes it is!!! O3 nailed this move to 8 in febrarury I believe. My Jan 5s have doubled

JIM007
JIM007

OPTT !!! Are you kidding me? WOW !! Anyone gonna short this thing?

SATYDAVE4
SATYDAVE4

GDX 27.99 -1.15 (5.66%)and CDE 12.46 -1.15 (8.45%) dropping today.
Is gold on the downturn?

MR. DAVE GLISSMEYER
MR. DAVE GLISSMEYER

Bearish engulfing (weekly candle) triggered on GC at 5:48 MDT this AM…… I was THERE and got stopped out by 2 ticks of GC_F because I took my stop to break even plus one tick 67 freaking seconds before the bottom fell out.
Argh….
Momentum is in the basement and the next stop is 1308 followed by MM’s 1302 number. If those don’t hold say hello to 1250-60.
Cripes……

MR. DAVE GLISSMEYER
MR. DAVE GLISSMEYER

BTW trigger on GC_F was 1320.4 (plus I always give it two or three ticks, unless trading bonds) and it blew through it on one two minute candle to 1317 ish.
30 year note US_F. or ZB on TOS is sitting right on support…..long way down the elevator shaft on that one as well.
FWIW, Bonds down, gold down usually means indices up, unless it doesn’t, like today at times.
Frustrating day, call me a whambulance, please.

MR. DAVE GLISSMEYER
MR. DAVE GLISSMEYER

170’31 is support for US or ZB, 30 year note, left is out of previous post, sorry. Bonds also triggered a daily bear flag today…….open to interpretation because flags are difined differently depending on who you talk to. Either way, bearish bonds until Mr. Market says otherwise.

I need to get a life :/).

oldster3
oldster3

Marshall Law….
—- I guess no-one wants to talk about the “lone wolves” shooting cops…….if this continues and picks up in pace, it could affect a great many stocks – and make “some places” undesirable to visit. Seems to me the beneficiaries ( stocks wise ) will be TASR and DGLY.
+
https://everybodylovestrump.wordpress.com/2016/07/20/secret-service-investigating-trump-adviser-who-said-hillary-clinton-should-be-executed/
—- Trumpster brings out the ugly and worst sides of people….( I’d sooner vote for a dried-up dog turd than that fascist…)

oldster3
oldster3

MR. DAVE GLISSMEYER,
—- fwiw, I’m of the opinion that GOLD would be much better off “if / when” she breaks below $1300………
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24GOLD&p=D&b=1&g=0&id=p61446685607&a=286625497
+
http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/gallery.html?%24GOLD
—- Bearish P & F target is now $1260 ish

Curious1
Curious1

Galenica to acquire Relypsa for 32$ a share, can we cash this out during today’s session? If it is a done deal, and it appears to be, I want my money and bye bye to Relypsa. It’s over, for more than a double, and bye bye. Money to invest – elsewhere.

Curious1
Curious1

Arch makes the no news news (7/20/16): http://www.wbjournal.com/ARTICLE/20160720/NEWS01/160729991 excerpt: The Framingham-based company has enrolled 46 patients in its randomized controlled single-blind study to test its AC5 Surgical Hemostatic Device, which can be used to control bleeding and loss of other fluids, in order to provide quicker and safer surgical and interventional care. The study is taking place in Ireland, and results should be available at some point this summer, after 30-day follow up assessments and subsequent statistical analysis are completed. Dr. Terrence W. Norchi, president and CEO of Arch Therapeutics, said this is another step on towards regulatory approval of… Read more »

Curious1
Curious1

@Michael Murphy Comment 228383, thanks, put in a limit order for my shares at 31.00. Will check it later in the day to see what happened. Good night.

lawrence naresh
lawrence naresh

MM, did you say sell RLYP ? premarket as you said its howering around $ 32; should we wait for more than $ 32 to sell ? Cause $ 32 is the buy back price as per the deal and as you have pointed out Shorts could be desperate .

Chris
Chris

Relapse (RLYP)
Original Recommendation: March 3, 2016 @ $13.83

Sold July 21, 2016 @ $32.

Well done, Murphino! 2016 looks like your year!

Carl Flygt
Carl Flygt

Trump’s theory in letting Cruz speak last night (he knew the text in advance) is that the entertainment value of the ongoing charade will overmatch the moral value of the office and will translate into votes.

http://www.bloomberg.com/view/articles/2016-07-21/cruz-and-trump-both-lost-in-convention-face-off

This kind of thinking (and its contemporary validation) sets the stage for a social and political system run by artificial intelligence, where human intelligence and human actions function as mere window dressing for a dispassionate and failsafe underlying decision system.

oldster3
oldster3

RLYP…
Congrats to all holders of this “lucky dog”…. Congrats to Murphy on his pick…!!

Carl Flygt
Carl Flygt

Donald Trump may enter history as one of its greatest political geniuses.

http://www.bloomberg.com/view/articles/2016-07-21/trump-s-never-managed-to-be-a-manager

If he wins the Presidency he will decline to serve, handing the distasteful management of government to Mike Pence.

If he loses he will continue to voice his point of view to a substantial constituency.

Either way, he will remain above everything and very powerful.

saxophones2
saxophones2

KERX steadily moving up:
http://www.finviz.com/quote.ashx?t=KERX

lawrence naresh
lawrence naresh

MM thanks; nothing succeeds like success…now bought some SCYX with the profit from RLYP….KERX had bought long back in the upper 7’s

Donald Galamaga
Donald Galamaga

@Michael Murphy. Congratulations on RLYP. Solid pick. Well researched. Could you please give a scan to my most recent center of interest, Chromadex, CDXC. Besides the fact that Phil Frost took a flyer on this supplement ingredient maker, it also has hit on one, Niagen, that seems to have a real beneficial health effect. FDA trials underway.
Here is a decent Seeking Alpha overview of it.
http://seekingalpha.com/article/3984591-potential-niagen-health-benefits-drive-revenue-chromadex-stock
FYI the Bleeker Street article referenced tendered a full apology for their poorly researched and inaccurate analysis. CDXC seems a very good buy at this time.

oldster3
oldster3

AAPL…
— From Briefing. com…..
**
13:55 AAPL Apple: Japan AAPL suppliers seeing decline in orders for 3rd quarter in a row, according to Nikkei Asian Review (99.50 -0.46)

Nikkei Asian Review Article
Suppliers: CRUS, INVN, SWKS, QRVO, QCOM, NXPI, AVGO, TXN,
KYO, SHCAY, CAJ
AAPL reports earnings Tuesday, July 26th after the close.
**
+
Now, maybe this “STUPID Pokemon craze” can save her, you tell me

jcs
jcs

RLYP weill not a ten bagger, but more than helps paying for a small battery company in Pa.*AXION” who just did a 1:400 reverse split today and promptly dived back down and a larger one in California (EXIDE) that chocked on lead dust.
Hold your winners and cut your losses ,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,