Market Outlook – 10.2.17

Michael Murphy
2017-10-02
02
Oct 17

Dear New World Investor:

The S&P 500 ended the week and the quarter with its fourth positive day in a row and at a new record high. The Nasdaq and Russell 2000 also finished at records. The Dow Jones Industrial Average looks like it will join them on Monday.

The fractal dimension is fully recharged, so it is possible that another upleg is beginning. But I really, really doubt it.The VIX Fear & Greed Index closed Friday at 9.51, matching its mid-July low. As I’ve marked on the graphic, it is very hard for the S&P to go up when investors are that complacent:

Gold could not hold $1,292, so $1,256 is the next line in the sand. If the S&P 500 can keep defying gravity, we may see a retracement all the way down to our old friend $1,225. But I think it is far more likely that we get a snap-back rally that rips through $1,292, $1,306 and even $1,356. That will ring the bell for the new gold bull market.

Our re-entry into Bitcoin looks like it was well-timed. The steady upward pressure we saw in July and August is reemerging.

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Carl FlygtRICHARDMR. JOHN DEGNANMR WILLIAM C GARDNERMR. RUSSELL LAUDON Recent comment authors
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StephKam
StephKam

I’ll second that.

StephKam
StephKam

O.J. released from prison — more than 50 dead, 200 wounded.

StephKam
StephKam

Coincidence? I think. Not?

oldster3
oldster3

StephKam,
*****Coincidence? I think. Not?*****
—— and your thinking….?? .. why..??

StephKam
StephKam

Because O.J. — however culpable for very much else — had nothing to do with this Murder in Las Vegas. Not even Steve Allen could concoct that plot. I’m just sick and tired of really fake news being believed for fact by so many Fox followers and beyond to the far and alt-right, promulgated to gin up the base for the next massive distraction, who still think Hillary responsible for all sorts of dastardly deeds because the seed once planted is a weed that’s hard to reverse, and so I was being a bit sardonic. Plus I’m preparing to hear… Read more »

oldster3
oldster3

Oh….!! Wow…!! I don’t EVER watch Fauxe News as it has always been fake news backed by MR. FAKE NEWS, himself…….Trumpster, and his mean spirited utterly phony asertions about Obama….and about Hillary, as well…..
+
plus I have all the evidence I need against Trumpster ( corroborated by his ex- personal Butler racist whacko…)

StephKam
StephKam

Ah. That’s better! I just listened to a Chamber Music Society of Lincoln Center broadcast of the Mendelssohn Piano Trio 1. I tell my friends that chamber music is an antidote to Trumpiness. Wasn’t it Show Me who doctored a picture of Dos Equis’ Most Interesting Man to say “I don’t always watch Fox News — but when I do it’s on Comedy Central.” Might’ve been his best work. I do want to know all the evil machinations behind the scene, but I’d almost rather that the coup-de-gras that sinks him arises from something made up, real fake news. And… Read more »

StephKam
StephKam

And if you’re quick (or go to yourclassical.org) you can catch Beethoven’s Ode to Joy after this piece of Haydn string quartet on Performance Today.

zman
zman

ATRS
Up nicely
Good volume
lots of opportunities
MM you got this one pegged bang on
Looks like a great take out candidate imho
breakout …a new year high

keni
keni

when did MM recomend this stock and what price.tia

zman
zman

ATRS
Not sure the exact date but it was before 2016. Performance for that year was 38.7% and 150.5% since recommended. Price at close of 2016 was 2.33. Low was I believe .74. I was lucky enough to load up at .85 because it was in my mind “stupid cheap”.

zman
zman

Thanks MM fortuitous (sounds better than lucky)

oldster3
oldster3

VHC….
May…..just “may” Rock ‘n Roll….!!
https://elite.finviz.com/quote.ashx?t=vhc
—- Chart’s “message-to-me” she’s likely to go a lot HIGHER

Gary
Gary

VHC won trial 3 with Apple. Final judgement Oct. 13. The jury verdict was $300million for VHC, which has 60 million shares. Apple was using VHC software for secure FaceTime. By Friday both parties report to the judge if they have reached an agreement on rate for each device. If no agreement then judge will make his final judgement. Apple can appeal but chance of success is growing smaller after losing three times.

Gary
Gary

Oldster3 what is the message from your chart for VHC. Up 92% the last 3 days.

saxophones2
saxophones2
StephKam
StephKam

If only I’d been in IMGN for months instead of years, in the low teens, before the rise and fall. But while more than a taste it’s less than a major position, so I hold and hope for eventual recovery… or that ARTH hits so big I just won’t care.

Donald Galamaga
Donald Galamaga

@Michael Murphy and All. Goldman Sachs considers trading bitcoin, despite the Jamie Dimon rant.
https://www.fnlondon.com/articles/goldman-sachs-to-experiment-with-trading-bitcoin-20171002

jcs
jcs

My problem is this is a ghost that might vanish. It has no defined traceability, is a favorite for moving drug money (and who knows how much N. Korean), does not provide a taxable base for governments, So what happens if you wake up one day and find your account flushed, Who do you go too? Try deducting the loss. See if the auto dealer you used Bitcoins to pay for the new limo – will he not sue you for fraud and will not a host of interesting legal problems land at your door. Sure, you might win the… Read more »

Zachary Haney
Zachary Haney

IPI looking nice. go potash!

jcs
jcs

So what’s with APTO afterhours. I did not kick it off by posting a cheap 1.48 order below 1.49 quoted during the last couple of hours.

Chris
Chris

deleted by request

eversong
eversong

Seriously, some of these comments are genuinely heartless…what the hell is wrong with this “investment” group and when did a couple of NWI long timers I used to look forward to reading become so numb to the pain of others…I’m all for biting humor but I draw the comedic line at genocide and mass murder…

oldster3
oldster3

Hi, ( my 2 cents…)
This Vegas’ massacre by a TRUE MADMAN was so freakin’ horrendous that it WILL have to change our GUN LAWS…..( These specially converted weapons into ultra-rapid fire machine guns have to get confiscated and outlawed — they are meant for MURDER, that’s all they are good for….)

Chris
Chris

eversong, you are right. I have been regretting my post all day. Just now got time to check in. Wish I could delete it.

Carl Flygt
Carl Flygt

what is happening here

Carl Flygt
Carl Flygt

ANYONE MAKIN ANY MONEY HERE ?

John Quinn
John Quinn

Actually thinking of selling all my Apple. Hate to do it because I have over 2,000 shares now that I have had since it was under $100 pre 7 to 1 split, and my brother has a few hundred and mom & dad have mid hundreds, but I am doing too well to leave that much money sitting in Apple to make maybe 10 % at next earnings. I am using options , that I buy 2-3 months from expiration and making hundreds of percent every few months.; MY PGNX and BZUN turned positive today and they both still have… Read more »

jcs
jcs

Sounds likel you may have a big tax hit. Youo might want to sell part You can also use options to ease out of some if you think AAPL might move a bit.
Then there is the news – Apple having trouble getting units out. Reception byAppleManiacs may be less than wonderful .And other market factors to consider.
Should you split any sell between the two years – and what effects will any tax bill have on capital gates,
Would taking a look at historic Xmax boom in Apple stock suggest anything?

John Quinn
John Quinn

@jus, almost all in Roths and IRAs. Did sell almost 100 shares AAPL in 1 brokerage account, but I’ll be able to make up the tax hit of that in the next month I’m sure. Had AAPL in 6 different accounts, almost 21,000 shares. One I had only 4 shares, my largest in a single account was over 700 shares. Now I’ll plan for a week what options and what shares I want to buy like I did 6 weeks ago when I bought all those options contracts that average 200% return, and a few have Dec a few 2018… Read more »

Chris
Chris

sell covered calls

John Quinn
John Quinn

@Chris, I sold all my AAPL. Too many great opps right now. Had 2 tech & 2 bio I wanted to buy, but had no cash available. Sold them all every time it went over 154.80 in a different account each time, at market, so did ok.

StephKam
StephKam

With every EMT and first responder, you mean, to stop the blood loss ASAP. Then transport to hospital.

jean marc chaillan
jean marc chaillan

MNKD is skyrocketing!!
Any thoughts? time to buy?
Oldster, any idea?

oldster3
oldster3

jean marc chaillan,
Hi,
You got me ‘flat-footed’ on MNKD…. I’ll be…..
+

TWTR…
http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/gallery.html?TWTR
—- Long some shares….kinda looks interesting….( could become a high-flyer, again….I think….)

Donald Galamaga
Donald Galamaga

For those watching BIOLINE, news: BioLine Rx ( BLRX ResearchTrade ) Jerusalem, Israel headquartered BioLine Rx Ltd’s ( BLRX Loading… Loading… ) stock finished Tuesday’s session 4.35% higher at $1.20 with a total trading volume of 398,063 shares. The Company’s shares have advanced 11.11% in the last month, 44.40% over the previous three months, and 30.43% since the start of this year. The stock is trading above its 50-day and 200-day moving averages by 11.20% and 21.56%, respectively. Additionally, shares of BioLine Rx ( BLRX Loading… Loading… ), which engages in identifying, in-licensing, and developing therapeutic candidates that address unmet… Read more »

Donald Galamaga
Donald Galamaga

Good Morning all. I apologize for my last post. Copied it from my Fidelity news on Bioline and it came out lousy..
Here is a new lottery ticket in which I bought a few shares. Pleease do your own DD. Pink sheet symbol NSRPF
https://beta.theglobeandmail.com/globe-investor/investment-ideas/a-wild-theory-and-a-bit-of-gold-spur-novo-resources-surge/article36047443/?ref=http://www.theglobeandmail.com&

oldster3
oldster3

TWTR….
Breakout ( symmetrical triangle ) now being backtested, I believe…..
https://elite.finviz.com/quote.ashx?t=twtr
+
https://elite.finviz.com/quote.ashx?t=TWTR&ty=c&ta=0&p=i15
— She’s on a nice ramp…

Chris
Chris

In the past week both GM and Ford announced they would be producing a lot more electric cars. If that’s where the future is headed, maybe the place to be is in lithium miners or other necessary parts of electric care construction. Anyone have any ideas for a potential investment in lithium miners or other ways to play the coming ubiquity of electric transport?

Donald Galamaga
Donald Galamaga

Hi Chris. It reminds me of another major decision Ford made quite some time ago,,,the Edsel. I attended a Harvard Bus school case study on it and it was a case of both “yes men” in the company wanting to look good with the boss and the equivalent of a “social network” at the time in the 1950’s among upper echelon car industry Veeps, the 3 martini lunch. That said, there is a demand increase projection for lithium for the never ending search for better batteries. You might want to look at an interesting start up NMKEF, that has gotten… Read more »

fubar
fubar

Chris
Yes, Ford and GM and China recently announced a big push to all electric automobiles in the next few years.
You might consider LIT, a global lithium and battery tech ETF.

dstl
dstl

Chris – First of all, thanks for owning up to your comment above. You’ve earned the benefit of the doubt in my book so thank you. Enough about that. Here is an article that discusses investing in the Big 3 lithium miners. I read an article several months ago that said investing in lithium stocks was different than other commodities companies because of fixed price supply contracts, or something like that.. I cannot recall the details and I searched again and cannot find the article. Anyway, just know you might want to do more DD than normal to understand what… Read more »

Artbill
Artbill

MLNLF was recommended through another means. I have had it for a couple of months. Small loss so far. Please do your own DD.

Chris
Chris

Thanks for your good ideas on electric cars above. Now how about $SNDX ?? Does it finally appear to be breaking out?

oldster3
oldster3

VHC…
http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/pnf.php?c=VHC,PWTADANRBO%5BPA%5D%5BD%5D%5BF1!3!!!2!20][J,Y]&listNum=1
+
Good to go to the mid teens, at least, and probably all the way into the $30’s……I would guess…. ( don’t have a clue how long it will take…)

MR. JOHN DEGNAN

PZG: MM, How and when will PZG stock bounce back up? I bought some in March of 2017 as of today my loss is over 20%. Patience is running low.

RICHARD
RICHARD

I am looking to free up some money to trade in and out of ATRS and ARTH ; getting in tomorrow and exiting after their presumed FDA approvals this month.

Should I temporarily sell BIOCEPT, BLPH, SCYX, APTO, KERX, or BIOS?

Chris
Chris

I don’t know BIOS, but I would hang onto BLPH, SCYX and APTO and trade out of BIOC and/or KERX into ARTH. What’s your calculation for ARTH decision date?

RICHARD
RICHARD

Before the end of the month

Chris
Chris

If you’ve ever thought of buying a waterfront home in Miami, this might be a good time to make an offer on one.
http://www.miamiherald.com/news/weather/article177184956.html?#emlnl=Afternoon_Newsletter&id=Y2hyaXNsZW1vczFAeWFob28uY29t

John Quinn
John Quinn

Today I bought 3 EXAS Jan 2020 $23 strike Leaps, 1,000 shares of LIFE and 1,500 shares of VSTM. The LIFE buy, I put a limit order out 20 cents below the price at the time; the share price dropped down to execute my buy and then rebounded right back up.