Dear New World Investor:
Today the S&P 500 broke out of its month-long consolidation, broke above 1420 and closed at a four-year high. Try as it might, the bull was not able to throw us off, while the “sell in May and go away” crowd is praying for a chance to buy back in. Powerful as it may be, prayer is not an investment strategy.
Going into this morning’s European Central Bank decision on interest rates and ECB President Mario Draghi’s news conference, markets were expecting a 25-basis point cut in rates to 0.50%, and a plan to purchase about €200 billion of bonds with maturities of three years or less from countries that formally asked the ECB for help and had a credible austerity plan. The ECB was expected to waive its senior creditor status on bonds it purchased, and be treated equally with private creditors in case of default. (Otherwise, private investors would not step up to the plate.) The ECB again would broaden the kinds of securities banks could pledge as collateral, presumably to include junkier paper.
These purchases would be “sterilized” by sales of other bonds. In the U.S., in Bernanke-speak, “sterilized” means selling short-term Treasury notes from the Fed’s portfolio to buy long-term Treasury notes and bonds. But in Draghi-speak, “sterilized” means selling German notes to buy Spanish and Italian notes. Big difference, although on the surface it addresses German concerns that the ECB is printing money.
There was a lot of noise before this morning about size limits on the program, a formal cap on yields for Spanish and Italian paper, a formal target for yield spreads versus German notes, whether Spain would ask for help (as if they had a choice), and what the Bundesbank would do – they don’t have a veto, though. As it turned out, Draghi surprised the market by not cutting rates (yet), and then making the bond-buying program unlimited.
Every country voted for the program except Germany, and Angela Merkel said it is important that the Outright Monetary Tranactions program not impede the need for closer political and economic integration. Draghi upstaged her by saying the same thing in his press conference. (You can read his statement HERE. The technical features of the OMT program are HERE. The changes to the collateral rules are HERE.)
Before the announcement, yields on Spain’s two-year notes dropped to 2.99% from 7.15% on July 25. Italy’s two-year yields dropped almost three percentage points over the same period. This morning, Spain was able to sell $4.4 billion of 2016 bonds, the maximum amount it was trying to raise. The average yield fell from 5.971% on August 2nd to 4.603% today.
In the U.S., the big number is tomorrow morning’s August jobs report, with expectations for 125,000 additional non-farm jobs created, down from July’s 163,000. Any shortfall almost certainly means Bernanke will announce something in his press conference next Thursday, after the Federal Reserve Open Market Committee meeting. He expressed “grave concern” over the stagnation in the jobs market in his Jackson Hole speech last Friday.
The preliminary numbers so far have been mixed. The ADP private payroll report this morning showed 201,000 jobs added in August, the biggest gain in five month, but that’s the private sector only. Government, especially at the state level, is shrinking jobs at a remarkable rate and dragging down the overall jobs number. Last Tuesday, the Institute for Supply Management said the manufacturing sector is contracting at its fastest rate in more than three years, with a 49.6 reading in August. But this morning they said the services sector grew in August to 53.7, up from July’s 52.6 instead of down to the consensus expectation of 52.5. It’s a very mixed picture.
So tomorrow’s number is a big deal, but any number under 150,000 will still be read as weak, by both the markets and Bernanke. Our situation is not as bad as Europe, where unemployment in the 17-nation Eurozone was 11.3% in July, and undoubtedly worsened in August.
Market Outlook
Coming into today, the daily Bollinger Bands, calculated as two standard deviations around the trailing 20-day average on the S&P 500, were the narrowest they’ve been all year. This sort of quiet consolidation usually precedes a big move. The fractal dimension on the daily chart was up to 60.15, which was very fully consolidated. Most consolidations end with a resumption of the trend in the direction it was going when the consolidation started. But some consolidations end with a change in direction. So it very welcome to see the S&P close at 1432, up 29 points.
After a bit more of a run, we can expect a retracement that may even test 1420 from above. What Bernanke does or doesn’t say next Thursday should determine the timing of a retracement, but the good news is that we have a strong line in the sand at 1420 with an even stronger one at 1400.
Coming Events
All times below are ET, and most of the presentations and slides are archived on the companies’ websites so you can listen to them. What’s up with Wednesday?
Friday, September 7
ARNA – Arena Pharmaceuticals – 10:30am – Newsmakers in the Biotech Industry
Monday, September 10
ARNA – Arena Pharmaceuticals – Unspec. Panel presentation – Rodman and Renshaw Global Investment Conference
Tuesday, September 11
DNDN – Dendreon – 12:05pm – Rodman & Renshaw Global Investment Conference
Wednesday, September 12
ARNA – Arena Pharmaceuticals – 3:55am – Merrill Lynch Global Healthcare Conference, London
German Constitutional Court rules on Euro bailout plans – 6:00am
SQNM – Sequenom – 9:10am – Morgan Stanley Global Healthcare Conference
TWER – Towerstream – 9:45am – ThinkEquity Growth Conference
AAPL – Apple Computer – 1:00pm – Apple introduces iPhone 5 (see Sprint, below)
DNDN – Dendreon – 1:35pm – Morgan Stanley Global Healthcare Conference
DNDN – Dendreon – 2:00pm – ThinkEquity Growth Conference
S – Sprint – 3:00pm – Merrill Lynch Media, Communications & Entertainment Conference
HLIT – Harmonic – 4:30pm – ThinkEquity Growth Conference
Thursday, September 13
Fed Meeting Ends – 12:30pm – Fed statement
Fed Meeting Ends – 2:15pm – Bernanke press conference
The Recovery Trade Sequence: Gold & Silver
Paramount Gold & Silver (PZG) announced their updated 43-101 resource estimate for San Miguel, five days after their previous August deadline. The new estimate reports 639,000 ounces of gold and 53.6 million ounces of silver in the indicated category. Using a gold-to-silver price ratio of 60:1, San Miguel holds 1.53 million indicated gold equivalent ounces. This is the key metric to value the property.
Most acquirers pay less for inferred metal – as long as it is there, it will take more drilling and economic work to evaluate what it is worth. San Miguel had another 830,000 ounces of inferred gold and 46.2 million ounces of silver. That equates to 1.60 million inferred gold equivalent ounces.
The total of indicated and inferred gold-equivalent ounces is 3.13 million ounces. In my original writeup on PZG, I said I thought Mexico held five million ounces of gold. The company then had 2.65 million ounces, all inferred. At the then-current price of gold of $945 an ounce and using the multiple Cour d’Alene paid for the adjacent Palmarejo property, PZG was worth $8.87 a share. But the company’s goal was to prove up five to ten million ounces, which would make the property worth $15 to $30 a share on the 108 million shares then outstanding.
What’s changed since then? Gold is at $1700, and probably will never trade below $1500 again. Companies don’t pay half the value of the gold in the ground anymore, mostly because extraction costs have increased. But they do pay 33% of the value. Finally, PZG now has 147 million shares outstanding, and they also own Sleeper.
So the math is pretty simple. 3.13 million ounces x $1500 x 0.33 = $1.55 billion / 147 million shares = $10.54 share. So PZG could sell San Miguel any day for $10+, give the cash to shareholders and still have Sleeper to develop. Or they could sell the whole company today for $15. Until the buyout, they’ll keep proving up more gold and silver. And the Preliminary Economic Assessment for San Miguel is still due at the end of the year, if Scott Wilson can hit his deadline for once.
When will Wall Street catch on? Probably never – the company will just sell out to the first $15 offer. I am looking for a strong run in the miners over the next several months, as they overcome a pretty brutal beating since February. PZG could catch on if just one analyst would write it up, but I’m not holding my breath. PZG is a Core Holding and a Trading Buy under $4 for my $15 target when the company is acquired, possibly in 2012. There is a lot of good news coming.
Major News Coming to Drive Our Stocks
This list has its own page. I’ll comment on any changes here, and you can always click the link under Member Resources. This week I removed the San Miguel Resource Report because it is completed, and added the San Miguel PEA by the end of the year.
Biotech MegaShift
Dendreon (DNDN) fell when Medivation got early approval for Xtandi, its prostate cancer drug to be used after Taxotere. Johnson & Johnson’s Zytiga also is approved to be used after Taxotere, and will fade quickly because it requires co-administraiton with steroids. Xtandi does not.
Dendreon’s Provenge is approved to be used before Taxotere. The FDA may approve Zytiga to be used before Taxotere later this year, but that is not a sure thing. Even if they do, the best practice is to use Provenge first, followed by Zytiga. If Xtandi is ever approved for the pre-Taxotere patient, it can be given with Provenge.
While Zytiga and Xtandi have the same mechanism of action, lowering testosterone, Provenge has a completely different method of action, boosting the immune system. Dendreon’s competitive challenge is not technical, it is marketing. I think the company is addressing that.
There have been a suspicious number of SeekingAlpha articles recently on the theme of “Dendreon is Dead.” For example:
August 2 – Doomed Dendreon? Some Speculators Shocked By Sales Again
August 20 – Dendreon Provenge Sales Wobbling
September 4 – The Prostate Pipeline Revisited
September 5 – The Final Blow For Dendreon?
September 6 – Dark Horizons For Dendreon
Remarkably, the short interest increased from 40.9 million shares at the beginning of August to 43.4 million shares at the middle of August. After that, the stock went over $5 for a few days – perhaps that explains the recent articles. It will be interesting to see the end of August numbers.
At this point, what Dendreon needs to do is clear. Execute on the restructuring plan to get the breakeven point below $100 million a quarter. Execute on the marketing plan top grow revenues 20% to $100 million a quarter. Then build on a positive cash-flow to turn profitable. Find a partner to launch in Europe in mid-2013. Outlicense other areas, especially Asia and South America. It’s all very doable.
DNDN is a Core Holding and a Trading Buy that I would buy up to $7 short-term, with a $12 target after a European partner is announced. Longer term, I would buy all the way up to $28, with a $50 target as Provenge revenues accelerate and they file for approval in Europe.
Sequenom (SQNM) has another potnetial competitor that I missed in my recommendation write-up: Natera. They talk a good game, but after reviewing the clinical trials I don’t see them as a competitor anytime soon. My old friends at Sequoia Capital led the most recent round of venture financing, though, so I take them seriously. SQNM is a Trading Buy under $4 for my $8 target in 2013 and $12 in 2014.
Zalicus (ZLCS) started the first of the two planned Phase IIa studies of Z160 to treat chronic neuropathic pain associated with lumbosacral radiculopathy, caused by compression or irritation of the nerve roots exiting the lumbar region of the spine. There are no specific drug treatments approved to treat this common condition that affects 3% to 5% of the global population. The second study to treat pain from shingles will start in the fourth quarter.
This six-week trial will go a long way to answering the question of whether Zalicus has been able to overcome the efficacy issues that caused Merck to drop development of the drug. We should see data in the March quarter from the first trial, and the June quarter from the second. Based on the animal and Phase I data, I expect it to be a big success. ZLCS is a Long-Term Buy under $2 for my $7 target in mid-2013.
Content on Demand MegaShift
Infinera (INFN) won a major contract with Australian telecom carrier PIPE Networks for a submarine and terrestrial deployment of the new DTN-X 500 gigabits per second optical switches. This is the first 500 gigabit deployment in Asia Pacific, and INFN beat out several competitors to win the business. This will be an excellent reference for future sales in the region. INFN is a Hold.
Sprint (S) will benefit from the Apple iPhone introduction on September 12. Here’s the cover of the invitation:
Note the shadow. I expect Sprint to do very well with the iPhone 5 due to their unilimited data plan. Anything that causes someone to change to a new phone is an opportunity for Sprint to take a customer away from AT&T or Verizon. S is a Value Buy under $4 for my $8 target in 2012 – which I expect to raise.
Hyperinflation MegaShift
Primero Mining (PPP; P.TO in Canada) updated its resources and reserves estimate for San Dimas. Their probable mineral reserves increased to 584,000 ounces, up 79,000 ounces from December 31, even though they mined 47,000 ounces in the first half of 2012. They had 34.7 million ounces of silver in the probable category. The indicated and inferred reserves also increased.
These results are from only 18 veins of the more than 120 known veins on the property, and do not extend more than 100 meters below the current mining level. There’s a lot more gold there. The stock reacted strongly to this news, closing at $5.06 today. PPP is a Value Buy under $3 for a $10 target by the end of 2012.
New Energy Technology MegaShift
Ocean Power Technologies (OPTT) won a new Cooperative Research and Development Agreement award from the Department of Homeland Security to redeploy the Autonomous PowerBuoy off the coast of New Jersey. Last year’s work with the Navy showed strong results, as the buoy produced higher-than-predicted power while surviving 50-foot waves during Hurricane Irene.
There was a good story on the Oregon project in The New York Times. OPTT is a Hold.
The Geothermal Basket – Top Buy Long Term
I recommend putting 50% of your basket into ORA, with 25% each in the two smaller companies: AXY.TO and HTM.
US Geothermal (HTM) changed its fiscal yearend to December, and will report a nine-month stub year for 2012. In the annual letter to shareholders, management pointed out that all three domestic power plants operating in 2013 will produce 354,000 megawatt hours. By my calculations, this should produce about $22.6 million in revenues for HTM.
In addition, they own 100% of the El Ciebello project on 25,000 acres adjacent to Guatemala City. They’ll build a 25 megawatt steam power plat that will produce 208,000 megawatt hours a year starting around 2015. I am keeping the same target prices, but sliding them out a year. HTM is a Long-Term Buy under $1 for a $3 target in 2013 and $4 in 2014.
* * * * *
Action Items This Week
* * Buy SQNM
* * Buy QUIK
* * * * *
Bernanke may have to print money to set off a world-wide inflation that will save China, so they can keep buying our Treasury bonds.
The Macroeconomics of Chinese Kleptocracy
* * * * *
Your wondering who will buy my old farm next Editor,
Michael Murphy, CFA
Founding Editor, New World Investor
The Core Holdings
Arena Pharmaceuticals (ARNA)
Antares Pharma (ATRS)
BioCryst Pharmaceuticals (BCRX)
Dendreon (DNDN)
Rochester Medical (ROCM)
DragonWave (DRWI)
QuickLogic (QUIK)
Towerstream (TWER)
A Short-Sale or REO House
A Bag of Junk Silver
Market Vectors Gold Miners Exchange-Traded Fund (GDX)
Market Vectors Junior Gold Miners Exchange-Traded Fund (GDXJ)
Paramount Gold & Silver (PZG)
Sprott Resource Lending (SILU)
Axion Power (AXPW.OB)
The Long-Term Buys
Aastrom Biosciences (ASTM)
Energold (EGD.V; EGDFF.PK on the pink sheets)
Golden Predator (GPD.TO; GPRXF.PK on the pink sheets)
Otis Gold (OOO.V; OGLDF.PK on the pink sheets)
Infinity Energy Resources (IFNY.PK)
Alterra Power (AXY.TO; MGMXF.PK on the pink sheets)
Ormat Technologies (ORA)
US Geothermal (HTM)
The Value Buys
Sprint (S)
Primero Mining (PPP; P.TO in Canada)
Exide (XIDE)
The Trading Buys
Arena Pharmaceuticals (ARNA) – for the European and ROW partnerships, and launch of Belviq
BioCryst Pharmaceuticals (BCRX) – for the BCX4208 gout drug parthership announcement
Dendreon (DNDN) – Continued roll-out of Provenge; possible takeover bid from Roche
Sequenom (SQNMN) – Continued roll-out of MaterniT21 PLUS Down’s Syndrome test
Zalicus (ZLCS) – Synavive trial results in September or October
DragonWave (DRWI) – IP microwave backhaul taking off; big contract wins coming; Nokia Siemens microwave business acquisition
QuickLogic – Consumer demand for tablets and smartphones with VEE & DPO chips
Towerstream (TWER) – Leading supplier of wireless business telecom services hits cash flow breakeven next; more WiFi offload announcements coming shortly
Market Vectors Gold Miners Exchange-Traded Fund (GDX) – the big miners
Market Vectors Junior Gold Miners Exchange-Traded Fund (GDXJ) – the smaller miners
Paramount Gold & Silver (PZG) – Sleeper preliminary economic report coming, and a 43-101 on San Miguel
Infinity Energy Resources (IFNY) – partner news and 3D seismic program
Rentech (RTK) – high corn prices and low natural gas prices for another year
Holds
Connacher Oil & Gas (CLL.TO; CLLZF.PK on the pink sheets)
Harmonic (HLIT)
Harris & Harris (TINY)
Infinera (INFN)
Ocean Power Technologies (OPTT)
© Copyright - Next Paradigm Press – 2012. New World Investor does not act as a personal investment adviser or advocate the purchase or sale of any security or investment for any specific individual. The recommendations and analysis presented to members is for the exclusive use of members. Members should be aware that investment markets have inherent risks and there can be no guarantee of future profits. Likewise, past performance does not assure future results. Recommendations are subject to change at any time. Nothing in this presentation should be considered personalized investment advice. No communication to you by Michael Murphy or any of our employees or contractors should be deemed as personalized investment advice.
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Too much convention
User ID: 0 @ September 6th, 2012 at 21:23 Comment # 141841
@FRANK V, what are the implications of this post for our investments?
Thanks Michael, great report as always!
next..
MM you deserve a compliment re market timing.
Back in APril May most I read called for a downturn in the market. You were one of few I noted that called for a bullish run……
I was tempted to sell in May and go away. Your prediction and expertise kept me in.
Congratulations….
Fractals do seem to work…..smiles
User ID: 0 @ September 6th, 2012 at 20:07 Comment # 141829
@Ezepace, it’s not fractals … it’s funny money printing.
thank MM
@MM, why INFN is a hold?
And you are still thinking $15 for PZG in 2012. What is your target price for gold by the end of this year? TIA.
User ID: 5189 @ September 6th, 2012 at 20:09 Comment # 141830
@Wendy L., I am worried that INFN’s customers will cut back capital spending in a recession. INFN should get a big share of whatever is spent, but it is a capital equipment company.
PZG could sell for $15 this year. It does not matter where the stock is, it only matters how much metal a company can show Wall Street it is buying.
I think gold ends the year around $1900, then hits $2200 early next year.
User ID: 0 @ September 6th, 2012 at 20:46 Comment # 141836
@Wendy L., I sold my INFN last week to buy more QUIK and a bit more JJA and JJG….
User ID: 0 @ September 7th, 2012 at 00:21 Comment # 141857
@Jonathan, I am not in INFN yet. MM just has a good explanation why it is still a hold. I also like JJA and JJG as long term investments. QUIK is good as well but it already has run up a lot lately. Maybe it is not the right time to add or take an initial position now. I hope MM is right though.
7th ? Good move today but what happened at the end?
Doc.
MM, why don’t you publish a SA analysis of PZG?
User ID: 0 @ September 6th, 2012 at 20:58 Comment # 141838
@Carl Flygt, Carl, why don’t you get a hobby, and stop annoying us?
User ID: 0 @ September 6th, 2012 at 21:10 Comment # 141840
Hi Mike. Because language, politics and economics IS my hobby. I really get off on the combination.
+
This is not to say I want to annoy. I do not. I will adjust as called for.
User ID: 0 @ September 7th, 2012 at 09:23 Comment # 141896
@Mike, Uncalled for. It’s a legit question. This is exactly what I mean when I say CF has become the whipping boy. The standard for him is not the same as for everyone else.
User ID: 0 @ September 6th, 2012 at 23:44 Comment # 141851
@Carl Flygt, MM just posted a very nice summary on PZG. For the short time I have been here, there are enough reports from members and MM for most members to make a decision on whether PZG is an investment they want to pursue. What specific information are you still lacking that requires more effort on the part of MM?
User ID: 0 @ September 7th, 2012 at 00:10 Comment # 141855
@Keith Fox, if MM publishes a compelling argument for the value of PZG, other people outside this board will be stimulated to buy in at these prices, and the PZG pps will rise. This is NWI market power.
User ID: 5189 @ September 7th, 2012 at 08:21 Comment # 141874
@Carl Flygt, true. I was going to wait for the PEA for Mexico, but maybe need to do it now.
User ID: 0 @ September 7th, 2012 at 09:14 Comment # 141891
@Carl Flygt, I second the motion to do it now …..It can only help and not cause harm IMO
First time in a long time….nothing on ARNA….what about downgrades etc….MM if you please…tia
MM:
ARNA or PZG
So now what am adding to my portfolio, more ARNA or PZG, if you may be so bold!
Thank you,
B
MM. Why do you feature:
Buy QUIK?
User ID: 0 @ September 6th, 2012 at 22:59 Comment # 141847
@Bulldog, My thoughts as well, MM no mention of QUIK in RR, but listed as an action item?? Please explain. TIA
Here follows a POLITICAL POST. I hope everyone can see that it is. Dr. John?
+
Nice article by Stephen L. Carter. “If we can’t agree about the small things, we’ll never agree about the big ones.”
+
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-09-06/it-is-to-be-hoped-that-proper-grammar-can-endure.html?cmpid=BVrelated
+
Implications for investments: the better this board runs, the better our portfolios will be.
User ID: 0 @ September 6th, 2012 at 23:24 Comment # 141849
@Carl Flygt, CF you were doing so well with most of your other posts today, what happened?
…..
I agree with others that OT here is enjoyable. It makes the board more fun and builds community. So share some more mining property photos, a picture of your pets or a great joke without an imbedded lecture.
…..
SMTM apply your troll spray here as needed!!!
…..
CF that article is completely irrelevant to investing. There are many of us that do not agree with you on the small or big things. There is nothing wrong with disagreeing with you, especially when it comes to you posting things that are completely OT no matter how far you try to stretch the boundaries. Notice that I am not responding to the actual subject matter of the article you posted, but to the fact that it is not relevant here. It is yet another attempt you are making to draw others into a distracting debate. Please stop. If you insist on continuing, then at least be more clever and find an article more directly related to investing to draw readers into your web. An ignore button for all your posts is still a simpler solution than skipping over your post’s because you warned us that it is a POLITICAL POST. The article is not even political. It is yet another lecture from you on the sly.
…..
I live by the ocean but spend a lot of my weekends exploring the southwest, especially mines. I get to see rugged but beautiful landscapes, interesting history, and the remnants of amazing and sometimes bizarre accomplishments left by men attempting to extract minerals from the earth. CF you are more than a man who spends his days conjuring phrases in an attempt to stimulate others. Find some self control and limit that part of you and share your reality with all of us instead of the unbridled thoughts that run through your mind.
…..
To anyone that is offended, be offended. I am not attacking CF. I am just asking that his participation on this board become what is reasonably acceptable, and if he cannot do that, then at the very least adhere to the rules. I could have remained silent and not taken all the flame posts that will likely follow. But from what I’ve observed there are very few outspoken individuals willing to tolerate Cfs behavior, but more silent individuals who have had enough. So flame on.
…..
SMTM I’m waiting for your picture of a skewered fox roasting over a fire.
User ID: 0 @ September 7th, 2012 at 00:10 Comment # 141856
@Keith Fox, please email me at fifthclmn@hotmail.com regarding your desert explorations. I may share a similar interest.
User ID: 0 @ September 7th, 2012 at 09:37 Comment # 141899
@Keith Fox, Very well worded and constructive criticism. It’s this kind of restraint that promotes civil behavior. Just sayin’.
Re Action Items,
SQNM: I suspect SQNM may retest lower 3s, so please be cautious with buys, perhaps just an initial small position.
QUIK: Does anyone now doubt that the ~7 million share day June 22 at ~2.45 was an elephant track? It moved faster than I thought, and only have half what I wanted….
User ID: 0 @ September 6th, 2012 at 23:46 Comment # 141852
@Fuller,
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=QUIK&p=D&b=2&g=0&id=p21138607803&a=275761121
—– Quite overbought & would not be surprised to see a ‘tag” of the 200dma & prior “resistance line” on this chart, on pullback…. (possibly worse…)
User ID: 0 @ September 7th, 2012 at 11:55 Comment # 141944
@
Very good analysis, Michael Murphy. Re: the employment number, I plan to be attentive to Obama’s speech tonight to see if he gives any clues on the data (like obviously setting up for a low number when he knows it will be high or some other clue) I think the PZG situation you describe is right on. I hope we get out of this “bear raid” rut with ARNA soon.
MM, So no update on ARNA????
Whats up with al thos bs???
MM,
re: ARNA
What do you make of the Credit Suisse downgrade to underperform?
Is this little more than manipulation so large institutions like CS can accumulate at a good price point?
User ID: 5189 @ September 7th, 2012 at 08:31 Comment # 141876
@SEMPRE2, probably. Who knows? If Credit Suisse would whisper in my ear before every recomendation they made, it would not change my portfolio one bit.
User ID: 0 @ September 7th, 2012 at 09:03 Comment # 141889
@Michael Murphy,
Thanks Mike; I just saw the downgrade; I did not know how it was arrived at or whether there was any FUD or other analysis that CS had the temerity to put out in the public domain that you would give you a full and fair opportunity to debunk in your inimitable way. I know that in the end the ratings by the large institutions are averaged but as you previously reported there has been a major shift in large institution accumulation so I would be surprised if we do not end up with more buy recommendations than hold or under-perform.
I thought you were spot on when you responded to another subscriber regarding your forecast for movement on ARNA last month which I will paraphrase here:
______________________________________________________
The problem is that ARNA is still a news-driven, development-stage stock. On the day the European partner is announced, or DEA scheduling, or European approval, or receipt of the launch milestone, or launch, or any brokerage firm upgrade related to any of these, the stock will jump. Then it will consolidate until the next event. Even as institutional holdings increase, they buy carefully over many weeks and try not to move the market.
The “true breakout” happens when revenues start flowing and growing, and that won’t be announced until May at the earliest.
_________________________________________________
I saw Dr. Peterson had a similar inquiry to mine further down the current post for the RR.
Best
MM…any news on this little baby?
User ID: 0 @ September 7th, 2012 at 00:59 Comment # 141860
@MM, I am interested too. TIA.
User ID: 0 @ September 7th, 2012 at 10:13 Comment # 141909
@Wendy L., I posted this right before the RR was published Thursday night:
AXPW — Anyone else get an email about this?
http://www.cepro.com/article/rosewaters_residential_energy_storage_hub_a_ups_on_steroids/K297
User ID: 0 @ September 7th, 2012 at 16:16 Comment # 142013
@Chris, I see. Thanks.
User ID: 0 @ September 8th, 2012 at 11:50 Comment # 142113
@eversong, Will they ship and install in a Bunker complex !
No names mentioned here, just a whack at some anonymous chicken. Nothing to see, nobody got hurt, please keep moving…
User ID: 0 @ September 6th, 2012 at 23:10 Comment # 141848
@MR. ANDERSON,
User ID: 0 @ September 11th, 2012 at 09:38 Comment # 142216
@MR. ANDERSON, Does it count if a teleprompter was used?
PZG…
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=PZG&p=D&b=2&g=0&id=p90938698377&a=272887675
—– Very nice move on “increasing volume”, so far……(may be able to run to $3.2 ish —- “Measured Move” of the rectangle, I figure —– before a correction of some significance)……. My best guesses, IMO
Michael Murphy writes that he believes gold will probably never drop below 1500 dollars again. I find that statement to be remarkable and somewhat insoucient. If gold will probably never go below 1500 dollars what kind of option plays, leaps or otherwise, could we set up with that knowledge. Why bother with PZG?
I find it hard to believe that the miners and their financiers believe 1500 is the downside limit.
When and if gold breaks downside barriers, miners will be caught with their pants down, because they are mostly unhedged (read it in WSJ article about an Aussi miner that is hedging, the exception). I think they are scarred, because they are unhedged. And PZG’s position is difficult because to buy it and hedge the holdings would be very expensive.
The real money in PZG may be in hyperinflation, which maybe cures all miner ills, but which is otherwise very bad.
Still holding my position, but seeing the risks, and questioning the upside limits. It depends.
What PZG was really good for, I believe, was surprise discoveries of gold and silver, beyond expectations. I don’t believe this ever happened, and now we are holding something that may grow in value over time or with surprise inflation events; but the surprise won’t come from inside the ground, where it would have most pleased us to have a surprise unfold.
User ID: 0 @ September 7th, 2012 at 01:08 Comment # 141861
@Curious1, @Curious1, MMs prediction about the price of gold is no different than any of his other investment advice. If you agree with his value on gold then you should take the time to understand why PZG is a better investment than directly investing in gold. If you disagree, then you shouldn’t invest in gold or PZG. Miners have to consider the worst case scenario which includes not just the price of gold but the cost of mining which includes at a minimum labor, equipment, environment (tree huger expenses), excavation of ore and mineral extraction. If you listen to infomercials gold will be $5,000 next year. If a total world collapse happens you will be trading a chicken for a loaf of bread and your gold will be worth $0. I’m not an expert on gold or mining, but supply, demand, inflation and peoples gravitation towards gold as a safety net I’m sure have a lot to do with MMs predictions. Given the current state of the world economy how do you imagine gold dropping below $1,500? If you have an answer to that question and believe it is likely to happen then stay away from gold. If you simply want to understand how MM came to his conclusion about the minimum $1,500 price of gold, I’m sure he will answer your question if you ask. The value in PZG is a much simpler discussion once you can determine a minimum future price of gold on which you are willing to take a risk.
User ID: 0 @ September 7th, 2012 at 01:48 Comment # 141868
@Keith Fox, Well, I did ask, and you answered, and If Michael Murphy wants to answer as well, he can.
The slow down in China and India could damp gold demand, for example. China and India are big questions. The price of anything is volatile, wasn’t long ago gold was 250, 400, 600 dollars.
Things change and not always up. Gold is just a play on inflation, I’m glad I am not overweighted in it. Glad to see PZG rise, hopefully on fundamentals. PZG does not glitter like it once did, 2 years ago.
User ID: 0 @ September 7th, 2012 at 02:02 Comment # 141873
@Curious1, So let’s both ask the question then. MM what is your rational for gold not dropping below $1,500? I pose the same question to Wendy L., if you would indulge us for balance.
User ID: 5189 @ September 7th, 2012 at 08:38 Comment # 141878
@Curious1 & @Keith Fox, printing money is happening in the US, China, Japan, the UK and, shortly, Europe. Gold isn’t going up so much as fiat is going down in value, and it will be hard to push gold below the $1523 bottom of the last D-wave. We’re into a new cycle, with the A-wave and B-wave done, and the C-wave just kicking in. The bottom of the next D-wave is probably in 2014, and very unlikely to retrace enough to go under $1523. Then we’ll be off on the next A-B-C-D cycle into 2018.
User ID: 0 @ September 7th, 2012 at 21:02 Comment # 142049
@Keith Fox, Agree with your points on gold. For Sleeper alone, NPV $700 million at $1384 gold, or almost $5 pps. So the current pps below 3 reflects the risks and costs of mining and a lower gold price, maybe 1100 for just Sleeper. If MM is right about gold above 1500, PZG is a good bet at today’s price. It will be informative to see if PZG hangs in there when/if gold declines. That would be a positive divergence for PZG. Right?
OT: To whoever knows how to read, please follow MM’s rules. A little bit of it Nobody would care but it is getting out of control again. If you don’t think it will be a good discussion, please just take the real action to IGNORE it. It is a much simpler solution to keep this board clean and informative. I think most of people should have figured it out by now. When you reply, you are also breaking the rules, right? Please don’t reply and take those discussions offline. TIA.
Don’t reply to this one either.
User ID: 0 @ September 7th, 2012 at 00:30 Comment # 141858
@Wendy L.,
User ID: 0 @ September 7th, 2012 at 01:28 Comment # 141862
@Wendy L.,
Hi,
Just what the heck are you really talking about??
Gold and Mining Stock TA
————————————
Near-Term Targets for Gold, Silver and Mining Shares
“Gold has a bit of resistance at $1700 but strong resistance at $1800. Silver has initial resistance at $32.50 followed by stronger resistance at $35.00 and $37.50. The numbers reflect public opinion readings (source: sentimentrader.com).”
“Meanwhile, on the equity side, GDX last closed at a key pivot point. A break past $48 would take the market to at least $52-$53, where the 50% retracement and 80-week moving average lie. The W bottom pattern is nine points deep so there is a potential measured target of $57, which marks the 2012 highs and strong resistance from the first quarter.”
http://www.kitco.com/ind/Trendsman/20120906.html
PS: they may also pull back if failing to break their resistances. A good opportunity to add imo.
User ID: 5189 @ September 7th, 2012 at 08:40 Comment # 141879
@Wendy L., I think GDX could get to $58 on this move, but that would be the outlier. Certainly going to be a firefight at $53.
User ID: 0 @ September 7th, 2012 at 11:26 Comment # 141937
@Michael Murphy or others, How many days or weeks will this move last?
User ID: 0 @ September 7th, 2012 at 14:19 Comment # 141984
@Chris, Maybe 2-3 weeks.
This should tie in with what Wendy just posted……Here is a bullish stock reading tonght from Trade Station analysis ….
GDX
Market Vectors Gold Miners ETF
Long-Term Bullish
Double Bottom
$49.13 current
$57.50 – $59.25 possible target
User ID: 0 @ September 7th, 2012 at 01:47 Comment # 141867
@Ezepace, Further discussion to understand doulble bottom better and how analysis was obtained…
“Market Vectors Gold Miners ETF forms bullish “Double Bottom” chart pattern
Sep 06, 2012
Recognia has detected a “Double Bottom” chart pattern formed on Market Vectors Gold Miners ETF (GDX:NYSE). This bullish signal indicates that the stock price may rise from the close of $49.13 to the range of $57.50 – $59.25. The pattern formed over 112 days which is roughly the period of time in which the target price range may be achieved, according to standard principles of technical analysis.
Tells Me: The price seems to have reached a bottom after failing to break through a support level and ultimately rising higher in a sign of reversal to a new uptrend. The Double Bottom pattern forms during a downtrend as the price reaches two distinct lows at roughly the same price level. Volume reflects a weakening of the downward pressure, tending to diminish as the pattern forms, with some pickup at each low, less on the second low. Finally the price breaks upward above the highest high to confirm the bullish signal.
This bullish pattern can be seen on the following chart and was detected by Recognia proprietary pattern recognition technology.
“
Here is one more …out of interest..
LSI
LSI Corp
Short-Term Bullish
Flag (Bullish)
$8.06 current
$9.10 – $9.40 possilbe target
User ID: 5189 @ September 7th, 2012 at 08:41 Comment # 141880
@Ezepace, like QUIK, a semiconductor company.
Here is MSFT also bullish pattern
MSFT
Microsoft Corp
Intermediate-Term Bullish
Diamond Bottom
$31.34 current
$33.40 – $34.00 possible target….
All three were just sent to me from Trade Station.. I wont post these daily in future … Rather today and last night are a couple examples of what Trade Station does…… The charts look goood to me….I liked Ford last night and I like the gdx tonght…
Here is MSFT chart…
User ID: 0 @ September 7th, 2012 at 01:52 Comment # 141870
@Ezepace, there is a reason (or one of the reasons) behind this run – MSFT may increase dividends. Once it is confirmed, it may hit the target.
User ID: 0 @ September 7th, 2012 at 21:16 Comment # 142053
@Wendy L., I don’t understand why the sophisticated analysts don’t realize that payment of dividends has no effect on the NPV of a secure company like MSFT. When the dividend is paid, the pps goes down by that amount. Worse for investors, the dividend is taxed at the higher ordinary rate. A less secure company may feel like increasing the dividend to give investors more confidence of their cash position, but no such reason for MSFT to do it. Why are these elementary facts not understood by the public? Probably a con job by analysts to keep the dividend myth alive and get the public to do more buying.
User ID: 0 @ September 8th, 2012 at 18:44 Comment # 142138
@MR. RUSSELL LAUDON, it depends on how the amount of dividends is paid. I believe MSFT’s case will be based on more optimistic future earnings. If this is the case, pps should go up.
Markets….
IMO, a good correction cometh…….
User ID: 0 @ September 7th, 2012 at 01:53 Comment # 141871
@oldster3, Any reason? I see USD bounces back to pressure the market and gold but I think this is temporary. This is a short term view. Long term trend is down but it depends on FED’s and ECB’s actions imo.
User ID: 0 @ September 7th, 2012 at 02:00 Comment # 141872
@Wendy L.,
Lots of reasons, too numerous to mention this early… suffice it to say shorts caused the markets to shoot upwards in this spike…… now, no powder for “UP” is available until reload (kinda like sport shooting old black powder stuff)
—– let’s see how it unfolds in the am…..(and next week)
User ID: 5189 @ September 7th, 2012 at 08:44 Comment # 141881
@oldster3, the fractals are loaded with energy on the daily and monthly charts. The 150-day will be out of gas by the close on Friday, so Monday/Tuesday should be flat to back down to 1420.
After the awful jobs number this morning, Bernanke has to do something dramatic, as he telegraphed he would at Jackson Hole.
User ID: 0 @ September 7th, 2012 at 10:27 Comment # 141913
@oldster3, Amen……………..and Ben will disappoint……………
I also receieved three bearish patterns but I wont post them.
I really enjoy the increased focus on technical analysis and the path we are taking to teach and learn more re TA.
Micheal, Is this the right time to buy puts on the market or do we wait?
Also, some experts were trying to play puts on OREX – could you please mention what strike and expiration. TIA.
User ID: 5189 @ September 7th, 2012 at 08:52 Comment # 141885
@Sunny PK, we wait at least until the fractals play out, as long as the S&P can stay over 1380-1395. I would not buy puts on OREX until much closer to their clinical trial results. Then you could buy a lottery ticket way out of the money put, recognizing that it will probably wind up like most lottery tickets.
Streetinsider.com@Street_Insider
August Nonfarm Payrolls 96,000, versus the consensus of 130,000. Unemployment rate at 8.1% $$
OUCH QE on its way
User ID: 0 @ September 7th, 2012 at 08:58 Comment # 141887
@davedtire, and 5 or 6 dollar gas. Food prices will jump as well. This doesn’t bode well for Obama this fall.
User ID: 0 @ September 7th, 2012 at 11:11 Comment # 141931
@Michael,
You’re wrong & you’ll see why in November…….
User ID: 0 @ September 7th, 2012 at 12:14 Comment # 141949
Oldster3, I think you were a day or two early on your precious metals call!! doh!
User ID: 0 @ September 7th, 2012 at 21:28 Comment # 142054
@oldster3, Why do you think MM is wrong about the poor economy predicting a BO defeat? I have trouble predicting irrationality. What makes you so sure?
User ID: 0 @ September 7th, 2012 at 23:45 Comment # 142066
@oldster3,
MR. RUSSELL LAUDON,
The extreme right-wing posture of the repubs almost guarantees their defeat! Their narrow-minded dictatorial attitude towards women is an insult to all………
—– they’re bound to lose, IMO….
User ID: 0 @ September 7th, 2012 at 09:07 Comment # 141890
@davedtire, I noticed that PZG jumped a bit in the pre-market right around 8:40. I think that this is due to the effect that the labor data is expected to have on gold prices, as it pretty much guarantees more QE.
@Keith Fox, either way. The hedge funds and institutions are underperforming year to date, and need a trend to make their bonuses. I think the bell rang on Thursday. Once we get past The Bearded One next Thursday. we have a shot at new all-time S&P highs by yeaend. Or a crash. Thin ice, indeed.
@DR. JOHN PETERSON, the worst kind of FUD, because they may actually believe what they wrote. (Not likely, I know.)
@DR. JOHN PETERSON, it is so incredibly out of touch with reality – so ridiculous – that it had to have been issued solely to manipulate the pps of OREX and ARNA. I think they want to short OREX and buy ARNA.
User ID: 0 @ September 7th, 2012 at 10:02 Comment # 141905
@William Klawonn,
re; ARNA Manipulation by CS
I think that it is very plausible scenario
I
I haven’t parsed the numbers yet, but the unemployment rate drop probably is due to more discourged workers. Bernanke has to do something big, as he hinted at Jackson Hole, or he’s going to end his term with a deep recession. And he knows it.
User ID: 0 @ September 7th, 2012 at 13:05 Comment # 141959
@Michael Murphy, In your analysis, please take a look at the enormous increases in disability rolls. This story has not been told well by the media, but the relaxation impact of rules for disability eligibility determination has been widespread. Might be more significant than “discouraged” worker phenomenon. (and potential for scandal) Some of my paranoia here comes from two separate conversations this week with families of folks directly involved in recent “parting of the clouds” on disability determination.
User ID: 0 @ September 7th, 2012 at 13:13 Comment # 141963
@Donald Galamaga, Hope and Change.
User ID: 0 @ September 7th, 2012 at 13:29 Comment # 141967
@Curious1 and @Michael Murphy and all. The most recent objective source of data on the topic that I could find is as follows:
http://knowledgebase.findlaw.com/kb/2012/Jul/708964.html
User ID: 0 @ September 7th, 2012 at 13:39 Comment # 141970
@Donald Galamaga, Geez at that rate Soc Sec will be broke sooner than they thought. Neither side even mentions that powderkeg anymore
User ID: 0 @ September 7th, 2012 at 14:24 Comment # 141988
@Donald Galamaga, When the unemployment payments went to 96 weeks, I know a lady that quit her job and went on unemployment. She has a college degree, but decided she didn’t want to work and would draw unemployment as long as the government would pay. That was her hope and change. Now she is trying to get on disability. She is paying her fair share!
User ID: 0 @ September 7th, 2012 at 21:31 Comment # 142055
@Gary, Love your satire!!
zerohedge@zerohedge
The Reason Why The Unemployment Rate Dropped: The Labor Participation Rate Is At Fresh 31 Year Lows http://tinyurl.com/d3s7rud
July revised down 163k to 141k
Downtown Josh Brown@ReformedBroker
US economy adds 12k Chair Whisperers in August, not enough say economists.
@Fuller,
I’m not “this positive” now……
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=QUIK&p=D&b=2&g=0&id=p21138607803&a=275761121
—- I anticipate a good pullback beginning now……. (we’ll see)
User ID: 0 @ September 7th, 2012 at 09:32 Comment # 141897
@oldster3, But your chart shows “Bullish, Bullish, Positive divergencies,” and a strong gap above resistance. Granted the 3′s trendlines do offer resistance and a high probability of consolidation to overcome, but what is not to love in terms of TA? As I asked before, do you have reservations on the fundamentals?
User ID: 0 @ September 7th, 2012 at 09:41 Comment # 141901
@Fuller,
Reservations on the fundies? Definitely!
User ID: 0 @ September 7th, 2012 at 09:50 Comment # 141903
@Fuller, I would also add in regard to QUIK that investorsbusinessdaily shows:
Acc/Dist. Rating A- Rank within Group: 10th
Relative strength score: 80
Supply And Demand:
Market Capitalization 130.00 M
Acc/Dis Rating A-
Up/Down Volume 1.5
% Change In Funds Owning Stock 133%
Qtrs Of Increasing Fund Ownership 2
User ID: 0 @ September 7th, 2012 at 09:50 Comment # 141902
@oldster3, Care to expound on that?
Commodities and stocks will rise with QE3 but this whole thing feels like a game of musical chairs. When the music stops, how many will be left without a chair? Trillions of QE haven’t helped the job market at all, why would another trillion? Hopefully MM can ring a bell to let us know when to grab a chair
User ID: 0 @ September 7th, 2012 at 11:09 Comment # 141930
@Michael,
IMO, trillions of QE have greatly helped the job market…… it all would be a ‘bloody disaster” of monsterous proportions (30% or worse) were it NOT for QE’s helping $$$$
——-Many are oblivious to this, but of course, those are the same that caused it & deny it now…..
User ID: 0 @ September 7th, 2012 at 11:50 Comment # 141942
@oldster3, well we can guess what would have been but the “official” number hasn’t changed much at all. Of course the unofficial number is much higher anyway.
User ID: 0 @ September 7th, 2012 at 12:01 Comment # 141945
@Michael,
What QE’s did was provide Liquidity…… liquidity moves everything….. “no liquidity” is what occurred after Lehman’s BK, & that is what collapsed 95% of all stocks in the markets! (that also stopped almost all transactions & stopped almost all lending)
+
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$NYA200R&p=D&yr=10&mn=0&dy=0&id=p53668239931&a=241583551
——- Just look at what happened in 2008 after Lehman hit!! I swear, everyone should study this chart……
Wow. What insightful and meaty board discussions today. Lots to learn from all you folks. Wonderful to see. Thanks.
zerohedge@zerohedge
Chart Of The Day: 25,792,000 Unemployed And Underemployed http://tinyurl.com/9vwnqbl
new post in the forum, cartoons
The macines are all over PZG. I think this will be another big volume day and suspect the plan is, as usual, to cap it and reverse it. We’ll see.
User ID: 0 @ September 7th, 2012 at 10:07 Comment # 141907
@avocadodrummer, huge volume, that’s for sure.
pzg: 500K shares in the first 30 minutes.
User ID: 0 @ September 7th, 2012 at 10:21 Comment # 141911
@William Klawonn, i’d love to see some shorts capitulate. a floor above 2.8 should do it IMO. glta
Ezpace…what does your Trade Station chart say about the ARNA stock. Has Mr. Joseph heard anything new?
User ID: 0 @ September 7th, 2012 at 10:22 Comment # 141912
@bobglyc, Price is touching middle of bollinger band…., macd is also converging….price is back under 50 dma….
It might go lower but at this price it is a buy ……IMO
Oldster your REE is moving this am….maybe in concert with gold that is up 26 bucks..
I bought a few canadian maple leafs monday. You know it feels nice to own them than say a paper certificate of PZG…hmmmmm..Its all relative but just the same….( Gold is pretty..and so heavy…..)
User ID: 0 @ September 7th, 2012 at 10:38 Comment # 141918
@Ezepace,
IMO, should be jouned in by QRM, TAS….. multibaggers, I think…..
User ID: 0 @ September 7th, 2012 at 10:42 Comment # 141920
@oldster3, tell me more aout these two..interesting charts….
User ID: 0 @ September 7th, 2012 at 10:45 Comment # 141921
@oldster3, Did you buy either? ANd if you were to buy only one of the two which one and why?
User ID: 0 @ September 7th, 2012 at 10:56 Comment # 141925
@Ezepace,
Got ‘em both, & others in that space….. My fav is QRM…..
http://www.finviz.com/quote.ashx?t=qrm
User ID: 0 @ September 7th, 2012 at 11:19 Comment # 141933
@oldster…Wow last night while scouting around I saw web site FInViz and how you have it…nice site to keep on favorite places and utilize.
What about this site do you like oldster?
User ID: 0 @ September 7th, 2012 at 11:47 Comment # 141940
@Ezepace,
Take the TOUR that’s offered on the site……. incredible advanced features exist for……. FREE…… perfect for chartsters……. sucks for plebians…..
——- Enjoy…
User ID: 0 @ September 7th, 2012 at 21:46 Comment # 142056
@Ezepace, Gold coins are pretty, but your option strategies which you are passionate about depend on timing and leverage, so I am surprised that you would buy more than a few coins rather than PZG stock. I view PZG as a very long term call option way in the money. A real value, not a piece of paper. Reminds me of my 175 watt Nuforce amps which only weigh 8 lbs each and sound faster and clearer than most big-bucks amps out there.
User ID: 0 @ September 8th, 2012 at 11:41 Comment # 142112
@MR. RUSSELL LAUDON, It was just a few that my brother had….PZG is my 3rd largest position …so its all about balance…
User ID: 0 @ September 8th, 2012 at 23:10 Comment # 142153
@Ezepace,
1. ARNA
2. QUIK
3. PZG
4. BMPI…..
any HTM …want some real cheap
User ID: 0 @ September 9th, 2012 at 19:56 Comment # 142196
@Ezepace, And fun also. Gold is pretty and sexy.
@Michael Murphy, Thank you…
VICL
I recommend to take a look on the chart. Seems to be a cup and handle ready to break out. VICL will present Top line results from a phase 3 trial of Allovectin for metastatic melanoma later this year, which I expect to be very good. There are additional other catalysts.
SWHC…
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=SWHC&p=W&b=3&g=0&id=p41149359138&a=275837553
+
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.pnf?c=SWHC,P&listNum=1
User ID: 0 @ September 7th, 2012 at 10:48 Comment # 141922
@oldster3,
The weekly chart of SWHC is showing negative divergencies in : RSI, MACD, MFI, CCI.
Maybe it´s time to sell SWHC and wait for a retracement.
User ID: 0 @ September 7th, 2012 at 10:54 Comment # 141923
@Emil,
Nope….. not me…..this rocket is going vertical to about $12.5, I believe…. then some consolidation…
—- My best guesses
User ID: 0 @ September 7th, 2012 at 11:04 Comment # 141929
@oldster3,
Good luck. Chart is impressing. Unfortunately I missed this opportunity.
User ID: 0 @ September 9th, 2012 at 23:02 Comment # 142204
@oldster3, In my opinion wrt SWHC, it all depends on what you believe will happen come November. No Change in administration, all gun/ammo companies will go up and continue to go up. Course, there wont be any product left in the pipe come 11/8 cause it will all be bought up on 11/7 however, if there is a change in administration, the industry will come to a complete halt and take a breather before taking a few months to regain some stability with laggish sales over the next couple of years. There wont be the urgency to continue to purchase like there will be with no change! KH
Downtown Josh Brown@ReformedBroker
I can hear the rotors! RT @PIMCO: Gross:Sikorsky helicopter set 4 QE liftoff. Billions of Fed checks ahead.
ARNA
Consolidation is going on, as for now it seems the support at $8,50 is holding.
Next support is the SMA 100 in the 2hour chart at 8.24
Attention MM…I copied this from last page.. I totally missed this comment….
@jcs, Wow I totally missed this before. I Came back searching for something and spotted this accidentally. We need a better way to find added posts to prior days…..MM maybe we need Jaime O’s help..Id also love a better way to search multiple days.
Im copying and pasting this to new date…..This is a reply to ? I asked about putting in a formula into Trade Station. Answered late by jcs…
zerohedge@zerohedge
Real Unemployment Rate Hits 11.7% As Spread Between Reported And Propaganda Data Hits Record http://tinyurl.com/c9p43co
zerohedge@zerohedge
Central Planning Sends Gold To Seven Month High As EURUSD Hits 1.28 On Massive Short Squeeze http://tinyurl.com/bsnddbm
Here is a story about WS analyst and company manipulations. In my opinion the CS piece is just that.
In 2001, I was working for a Telecom Co. building a national and international fiber-optic network, like Level 3. This company was headed by the ex-CFO of MSFT, Greg Maffei, and they obviously had done a lot of acquisitions with the support of Investment Bankers. Well, the dot-com fiasco was full force en 2001 and this company stock was crashing (I think from $30s to $1) and it was in trouble. Our executive meetings were all about how great the market was going to be. Totally clueless.
Well, Greg called his buddies at the banks to help hype the stock,so they immediately publish stock reports undermining the stock movement and why it wasn’t priced right and so. They recommended the stock as a big buy. Anyway, the stock went up temporarily to later crash under $1 on its way to $0.30 and finally, 5 mos. later, the company went under.
We cannot believe WS analysts, period. Study the charts, this is where the action is proof. Study the fundamentals of the company and its industry and don’t invest anything you can lose. I have broken all these rules many times
))
Good luck.
It is clear that shorts specifically target MM’s recommendations. BCRX, ARNA, PZG are examples. What are the benefits of using the stock recommendations of an investment newsletter for shorting?
Markets…
IMO, S&P 500 should lower its left wing & “peel over” to lower altitude, me thinks…..
User ID: 0 @ September 7th, 2012 at 12:14 Comment # 141950
@oldster3, hey I thought the precious metals were oversold too?? day or two early huh…hehe
User ID: 0 @ September 7th, 2012 at 12:29 Comment # 141953
@actionjack,
I’m amazed at how stretched gold is becoming…… silver too!
User ID: 0 @ September 7th, 2012 at 12:31 Comment # 141954
@oldster3, I sold half yesterday and the rest today. I kinda of mad at myself, because I felt pretty confident the jobs number would be bad.
@Michael Murphy, INTC reducied guidance below estimates this morning. I own no INTC, what do you think of taking advantage of the weakness by selling INTC Puts (strike and expiry?)?
User ID: 5189 @ September 9th, 2012 at 12:51 Comment # 142186
@Chris, I thnk it’s risky until after Bernanke speaks. Then, it the markets like what he says, INTC should underform for at least a few hours, giving one a chance to wrtie puts. The premiums don’t look that great to me, though.
@oldster…between you and Fuller I have rekindled my desire to brush up on TA and review and study…..and use my Trade Station more. I even dug out some old tc 2000 and AIQ stuff…
SO thanks….and meant to say thanks to jcs re advice on formula writing in Trade Station. I did find tthe formula in archives of TS . I need to learn how to use easy language and incorporate that formula in TS. Interesting they used 100 days not 25 but that can be adjusted…
…………..
Here is formula if anyone wants…
…..
Here is it characteristics..as copied from site at trade station:
…..
[LegacyColorValue = true];
input:
Length(10),
StrongTrend(70);
var:
aroonUp(0),
aroonDn(0),
WeakTrend(100-StrongTrend);
//aroonUp = (Length – HighestBar(H,length)) / Length * 100; {eKam’s formula}
//aroonDn = (Length – LowestBar (L,length)) / Length * 100;
aroonUp = 100 * ((Length – HighestBar(High, Length+1)) / Length); {FullyArticulate’s formula}
aroonDn = 100 * ((Length – LowestBar(Low, Length+1)) / Length);
plot1(aroonUp,”Arron Up”);
plot2(aroonDn,”Arron Dn”);
plot3(StrongTrend, “Strong Trend”);
plot4(100-StrongTrend,”Weak Trend”);
if aroonUp = 100 then alert(“Strong up trend”);
if aroonDn = 100 then alert(“Strong down trend”);
if aroonUp crosses over StrongTrend then alert(“Strong up trend”);
if aroonDn crosses over StrongTrend then alert(“Strong down trend”);
if aroonUp crosses below WeakTrend then alert(“Up trend decay”);
if aroonDn crosses below WeakTrend then alert(“Down trend decay”);
User ID: 0 @ September 7th, 2012 at 13:16 Comment # 141964
@Ezepace, Learning EASY wasn’t or (isn’t)! It’s better now – and there are some other products that are more difficult to use than TS.
But you hit the jackpot with a prewritten solution that’s just a cut and paste away from running.
Whenever you need something you should google (or whatever) with the words Tradestation (or TS). and AROON (or whatever you are looking for). TS has been around for ages with little real change.
What’s a good start to learning is to take the above are read it to understand just what’s going on. Watch the punctuation (esp : which ends some lines and the brackets used to tell the program it’s a comment, not code). Do that on some other TS code.
There is a lot of help on using the language so at least read up a little.
What I always did is to look at some of the other languages and compare their syntax and actual code implementation with TS. Once you get familiar with what’s going in you can often lift the code from the other TA product and modify it into a usable TS form.
At one time, Technical Analysis of Stocks and Commodities would take the lead article and send it to the various “competitors”. Since TS was widely used by the guru’s the article code would often be in TS. The other firms would then respond to it with their own code version which would be printed in the same issue.
Now, the code is not printed, but posted on their web site. This might mean that access is limited to subscribers (but perhaps not for the current issue). That was how I learned to code various TA products – having a number of examples together.
There is a old saying “An engineer is intelligently lazy.” Meaning – don’t reinvent the wheel when you can copy it.
User ID: 0 @ September 7th, 2012 at 13:46 Comment # 141972
@jcs, Excellent and thanks….
Early signs that the consolidation phase following Sprint’s rapid rise may be ending are showing in today’s price action. I expected a deeper retracement to around 4.60 or so, but it may not happen. Big volume increase within the last few minutes.
Maybe we’ll hear some good news announced like a buyout!!
September 7, 2012
Paramount Gold and Silver Corp.
WINNEMUCCA, NEVADA–(Marketwire – Sept. 7, 2012) – Paramount Gold and Silver Corp will be attending next week’s Denver Gold Forum from Sunday September 9th to Wednesday September 12th, 2012. Shareholders and investors in attendance are welcome to meet with Paramount’s management team at the Forum. Management will also be exhibiting on Tuesday September 11th at 5:30 pm in the Centennial Ballroom of the Hyatt Regency Denver.
Paramount CEO Christopher Crupi’s presentation will be available by webcast on the Paramount website on Wednesday September 12, 2012 http://www.paramountgold.com .
Please contact Chris Theo for meeting requests.
User ID: 0 @ September 7th, 2012 at 12:09 Comment # 141948
@Doyle, no one just announces news at a conference. A written PR – or a halt – has to come first.
User ID: 0 @ September 7th, 2012 at 12:45 Comment # 141955
@Doyle, You’ll be able to spot Crupi, he’ll be holding the BUY ME sign
User ID: 0 @ September 7th, 2012 at 14:19 Comment # 141983
@davedtire, Don’t forget. It is not up to Crupi.
ARNA’s ascending channel is broken on the log scale chart, but not on the linear scale chart. Chart patterns had fit better on the linear scale up until the time we bottomed (hopefully) in early August, at which point channel support began following log scale. Now we revert back to linear scale, or at least watch it closely to see if it will be followed.
User ID: 0 @ September 10th, 2012 at 18:53 Comment # 142215
@avocadodrummer, re: ARNA, have we (presumably) broken through the linear scale channel too, after today’s continued damage?
haven’r read the board this a.m. BUT oldster your REE is moving…
User ID: 0 @ September 7th, 2012 at 12:06 Comment # 141947
@saxophones2, Smiles see above….
User ID: 0 @ September 7th, 2012 at 13:06 Comment # 141960
@saxophones2, Oldster also mentioned QRM as his favorite of a small group which includes REE. QRM also appears to be starting a move. Here is an excerpt from a recent article on QRM in SA:
“Market players should now look for long-biased trades in QRM if this stock can manage to break out above some near-term overhead resistance at $1.41 to $1.45 a share with high volume. Look for a sustained move or close above those levels with volume that registers near or above its three-month average action of 121,405 shares. If that breakout triggers soon, then QRM will have a great chance of re-testing and possibly taking out its next significant overhead resistance levels at $1.81 to $2.20 a share. Keep in mind that any move above $1.41 will mean that QRM has recaptured its 50-day moving average, which would be bullish technical price action.
Traders can look to buy QRM off any weakness and simply use a stop that sits just below $1.15 to $1.14 a share. One could also buy off strength once it clears its 50-day at $1.41 with decent volume flows, and then simply use a stop near Wednesday’s low of $1.22 a share.”
labor force participation rate at 30+ yr lows. why aren’t non-participants included in ‘headline’ number? http://www.zerohedge.com/news/reason-why-unemployment-rate-dropped-labor-participation-rate-fresh-31-year-lows
User ID: 0 @ September 7th, 2012 at 13:09 Comment # 141961
@davedtire, see my note to Michael Murphy’s comment on the unemployment topic above regarding potential impact of relaxation of disability eligibility determination rules.
User ID: 0 @ September 7th, 2012 at 21:49 Comment # 142057
@davedtire, There are several ways the estimate the unemployment levels. There is the household survey which asks how many are working or looking. They don’t ask how many have given up looking – sort of embarassing and likely unreliable. The others are from the job market and unemployment claims. Some later analysis might be based on things like employment taxes and other statistics. Further analysis looks for the missing cohort – projecting how big the discouraged class is. But who is to know if the discourged ones have found something – retired, in school or working off the books
User ID: 0 @ September 7th, 2012 at 22:05 Comment # 142060
@jcs, There is no way to spin these job numbers as good. 300,000 drop of the rolls when Canada creates @300,000 jobs in the same period. It probably has to do with utilizing their resources, just what we should be doing.
User ID: 0 @ September 9th, 2012 at 20:02 Comment # 142197
@Ray Henson, Agree, but I am not sure about whether the Canadian economy is doing better because it is more natural resource/commodity based, or whether they have learned from their socialist mistakes and are moving toward free markets.
I think Quik benefits from the Apple v. Samsung litigation because f there’s a lesson to be taken out of the recent $1.05 billion verdict, it’s that how a product looks and feels is as important as what it does. Apple convinced a jury that Samsung stole not just aspects of the iPhone’s functions for some of the Korean manufacturer’s smartphones, but the look and feel of it too – Quik can help with design patent issues like function and how the screen looks, size, feels etc.
User ID: 0 @ September 8th, 2012 at 00:14 Comment # 142069
@MR. JOSEPH, I disagree. The Apple-Samsung battle was decided on a number of patent claims including a number that are questionable. Take the rounded corners on icons, for one. Surely this is not a novel invention of Apples – it’s hardly a novel idea. In fact, a patent can be voided if someone else previous sold a product with the feature without bothering to patent it. In fact, the Patent Office seems to follow a policy “when in doubt – allow the patent and let the courts decide”. This became clear early in the biotech/genome frontier, as the examiners had no knowledge, no precedent and even no idea what the application said.
The fundamental idea of patenting (as opposed to non-regulated trade secrets) was to have public disclosure of advances in science, but with protection for the patent holder from infringement. The idea was to trade protection for motivation to others in the early development of America.
Let’s look at some of the stages of patents application and enforcement over time:
* Traditionally patents created industries from the Cotton Gin (Whitney), the Telephone (Bell), Radio(RCA) and more. Competitors would either license patents or invent alternatives – the race was on. The government encouraged firms to license key patents when the alternative would be a monopoly position by the patent holder. Just ask the old ATT.
* Strange bedfellows happened. I once worked for Burroughs (Unisys). We had agreements with IBM (and others) covering particular segments of technology where it was agreed that neither party would sue the other for infringement on patents in ONLY those particular fields. A waste of legal time – or was it each side got something they wanted. BTW, we could sue others or license our patents to them, as could IBM with theirs.
* Let the games begin. Early on Japan adapted an interesting technique. In an area where a US company had one significant technology patent, Japanese firms would file multiple “improvement” patents covering a hoard of very minor details, hundreds of them. Their goal? You let us license your big patent or we will hem you in so that you can not use or even improve your one patent.
* I’m not going to use the patent. a few firms started buying up patents in bulk, but not to use them. Often the firm made it’s living by licensing patents only, not by making anything. This patent tolling has been going on for years.
An interesting sidebar. Burroughs belatedly found that they owned the patent for the JPG graphics file format. So they decided to put a minor toll on each distribution of a JPG file. Could make millions you know. The industry responded with attempts to break or bypass the patent. I think PNG was an outcome. In any case, the impractability of how to collect apparently induced Burroughs to drop the idea.
…..and more recently…..
* Teaming up. Microsoft, Intel, Apple and other biggies have recently teamed to buy up packages of patents. Often this was from failing firms. Northern Telecom (CA) was one of the first targets. Again the team members could use the patents, although they likely already had their own solutions in the areas of coverage. More importantly, these patent packages could freeze or delay out the competition.
* Defending the Fort. Today, a product like the iPhone is based on thousands of patents – from areas such as communications technology, software, production and more. So Steve Jobs defense of the fort returned, in a way, to the Japanese technique. It involved patenting everything possible, no matter how small. And enforcing it, not to raise licensing revenue. In the recent case, the curved icon corners.
Now the vendor of hardware circuits to Apple or Samsung (might be their own part) may have an inherent capability to duplicate curved corners, or not. But Apples patent does little to restrict the circuit marker – it’s the use of the end result that gets Samsung in hot water. It this really “commercial dress” (look and feel)?
Remember Jobs pledge to “get” Google for “stealing” Apples ideas. Remember where Steve got his whole visual interface motif for the Mac – Yup, a visit to the Xerox Palo Alto Research Labs. (They even invented the Mouse there, but Xerox didn’t see an application for all of this nifty technology. After all, they were a just copy machine maker.)
Yup, the patent wars have gone nuclear.
So it will be interesting to see you Apple fairs on appeal. How “patents as a blunt weapon” progresses or morphs. And whether this works to benefit mankind as the founding fathers planned.
User ID: 0 @ September 8th, 2012 at 16:00 Comment # 142131
@jcs, Great and very educational post. Thank you
Could a charting guru help with a re-entry point for ESRX? I punted yesterday with the jump and looking for a new entry level….
User ID: 0 @ September 7th, 2012 at 13:12 Comment # 141962
@APT, (No guru!) but it is “TETT” aka Too Early To Tell!
No channels broken, no signs to follow yet, ‘least not to me.
MM – nice 6 Car Garage ! You must have a great collection of autos, trucks etc…..
User ID: 0 @ September 7th, 2012 at 12:55 Comment # 141957
@Show Me the Money, WHAT??? You bought the CORD!!!!
User ID: 0 @ September 7th, 2012 at 13:00 Comment # 141958
@Fuller, dreaming – Looks good – right !
Just parking it in MM’s old driveway until ARNA hits $65. then will purchase with Wilsons…
Looking good ! so let’s get this ARNA puppy moving ….
“Fired Up and Ready to Go”
-
Now this may be the way to sell a house ( or garage fast ) or at least get attention! . You park a very cool car in the FOR SALE Real Estate Home Picture driveway and just wait for Offers.
User ID: 0 @ September 7th, 2012 at 14:25 Comment # 141989
@Show Me the Money, Offers on the house or the car?
User ID: 0 @ September 8th, 2012 at 23:12 Comment # 142154
@DR. JOHN PETERSON, The house but maybe a package deal ….
User ID: 0 @ September 7th, 2012 at 20:43 Comment # 142045
@Show Me the Money, is this Half Moon Bay ?
User ID: 0 @ September 8th, 2012 at 10:41 Comment # 142102
@Ezepace,
Yes this is MM’s HMB “old farm” ( with 6 car garage!) he refers to in current RR editor note
“olde farm” Click Here >>>> http://goo.gl/n5uLU
with a 1/4 mile long mountain top driveway- very cool ! RE-Taxes must have been brutal….
Moving to a bunker in Boulder must have been a real life style change
Fuller-please note the Xide batteries (fully charged) – how is upside investment going?
Yes! – the XIDE mention ties in my OT with an investment scenario for the weekend OT Board Patrol Chief and BP Officers
User ID: 0 @ September 8th, 2012 at 12:46 Comment # 142116
@Show Me the Money, What would we do without bookmarks?!
shorted OREX yesterday 2K shares @ $5.73 ( ….now down 5%) …..now planning dinner at Mortons – Goal out at 5 bucks ….
In this market shorts are needed for Lunch Money
-
Anyone got some shorts for Lunch Money ! I think as oldster3 has clearly advised upside is quite limited – watch out below…
User ID: 0 @ September 7th, 2012 at 13:59 Comment # 141977
@Show Me the Money, here are two .. I havent checked todays prices…
ELGX
Endologix Inc
Intermediate-Term Bearish
Symmetrical Continuation Triangle (Bearish)
$11.90
$9.20 – $9.70
……..
next
MKTX
Marketaxess Holdings Inc
Intermediate-Term Bearish
Continuation Wedge (Bearish)
$30.40
$25.50 – $26.75
User ID: 0 @ September 7th, 2012 at 14:02 Comment # 141978
@Ezepace, opps elgx is up 76 cents haha
While mktx is down 1.46
User ID: 0 @ September 7th, 2012 at 14:16 Comment # 141982
@Show Me the Money, I did the same when you recco’d the short, thx
zerohedge@zerohedge
The Scary Math Behind The Mechanics Of QE3, And Why Bernanke’s Hands May Be Tied http://tinyurl.com/d2f3wpv
User ID: 0 @ September 7th, 2012 at 14:04 Comment # 141979
@davedtire, Good info Thanks. But as MM says if he does nothing we will be going into recession again, With Congress at a stalemate does he have any choice?
User ID: 0 @ September 7th, 2012 at 14:28 Comment # 141990
@Don, He’s between a rock and a hard place, doubt he’s going to sleep well
User ID: 0 @ September 7th, 2012 at 22:01 Comment # 142059
@davedtire, Nah, he’s just another high-ranking fed bureaucrat who sticks to his narrow job description of managing money supply, instead of speaking the truth that the economy will recover only when business-hostile regulations are abolished, which of course is not his dept. Take no responsibility, sleep well at night. No conscience.
PPHM didn’t someone mention this one recently? wow
PPHM —- WOW ! Anyone in this puppy …..
User ID: 0 @ September 7th, 2012 at 13:54 Comment # 141975
@Show Me the Money, I have 1000 shares …smiles
User ID: 0 @ September 7th, 2012 at 13:58 Comment # 141976
@Ezepace, congrats that’s some nice lunch money!
User ID: 0 @ September 7th, 2012 at 14:15 Comment # 141981
@Ezepace,
Congrats !
are you holding….. or tempted to sell ? what did you get in at —– Who initially mentioned PPHM here on NWI — WOW
User ID: 0 @ September 7th, 2012 at 15:17 Comment # 142002
@Show Me the Money, I got in at .95 cents.. one ive followed over time….Im going to hold till they announce a partner. Then ill sell until phase 3 nears review…
User ID: 0 @ September 10th, 2012 at 02:57 Comment # 142210
@Show Me the Money, PPHM was first mentioned on this board by Paul, who called it “The Holy Grail.” Paul may have intended to have PPHM as his Clout-Contest submission.
For a time, I waited for a drop before buying. But the stock price kept rising, and I bought some. 8/28 it rose 20.41%. 8/31 it rose 11.06%. 9/4 it rose 13.44%.
Last week, PPHM closed at $3.05 on 9/5. On 9/7, it closed at $4.50 (a jump of 47.54%).
oldster3 – your Clout Stock PRKR is flying !! VRNG and GORO flying also !!
We may have to size a few members for a CLOUT HAT Soon….
-
http://goo.gl/9wsey
User ID: 0 @ September 7th, 2012 at 14:23 Comment # 141987
@Show Me the Money, I got lucky. Bought Goro three wks ago; ditto agq. Up about 20% on each. Not bragging though. Had Petaquilla on my watch list, and didn’t pull the trigger. Baaaaad timing.
User ID: 0 @ September 7th, 2012 at 14:43 Comment # 141996
@Mike, GORO winning the Clout contest as of today up 19% from Aug 15 —– WOW *** Nick entry ***
User ID: 0 @ September 8th, 2012 at 01:45 Comment # 142084
@Mike, Good to see someone else is making money on GORO
The contest just happened to coincide with the bad news. The positive movement in metals and the steady rise after the fall set up perfectly here.
User ID: 0 @ September 7th, 2012 at 14:40 Comment # 141992
@Show Me the Money, No love for CLSN or ALXA??
User ID: 0 @ September 7th, 2012 at 15:21 Comment # 142005
@actionjack, CLSN Up Big $4.73 (+7.3%) – WOW
-
PPHM now up 50% bought some and already SOLD – ThanksEZ -Beer Money
AVO — FRIDAY BEER MARKER -TGIF
User ID: 0 @ September 7th, 2012 at 15:36 Comment # 142006
@Show Me the Money, ahh nice
User ID: 0 @ September 7th, 2012 at 15:59 Comment # 142010
@Show Me the Money, You add them together and make a “black n tan”
That will go great with the steak..Hmmmmm are we invited ? Did you make enough? lol
User ID: 0 @ September 8th, 2012 at 23:56 Comment # 142155
@Ezepace,
Black n tan — very potent
-
Maybe holding to much ARNA ….. 2014 options look good ! What % of your ARNA holdings are in options
With the stock I sell Out of the money calls on 30% – for Lunch Money – Like the Free Money , but would not be good if stock took off a few days before expiration – Ouch ! Dr Pete how do you handle this possibility ?
User ID: 0 @ September 7th, 2012 at 15:17 Comment # 142003
@Show Me the Money, GORO is one of John Goody’s 10 gold stocks….I have the NGD
User ID: 0 @ September 8th, 2012 at 01:12 Comment # 142080
@Show Me the Money,
Actually, I’m disappointed in PRKR stock, but, at least, it holds the ‘channel” so far……..
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=PRKR&p=D&b=5&g=0&id=p39044298304&a=276800587
+
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=PRKR&p=D&b=1&g=0&id=p00470442356&a=274369472
—— I’m using “charts” for my lonesome pick, & hoping for followthru to that top at $4.75 ish, where I will sell & walk away…..(smiling)
+
http://www.finviz.com/quote.ashx?t=prkr
MM,Wendy, William, Carl What do you think of Magellan Petroleum MPET Price is 1.14 There are several Cos. with buyout offers for MPET at the moment . One is for 2.30 twice the current price. Don
User ID: 0 @ September 7th, 2012 at 14:47 Comment # 141997
@Don, haven’t been following MPET so far.
dummy trade of the month. Bought 500 AGQ at about 39 a few weeks ago. Got real smart and sold it at 43 a few days later.
Head slap
User ID: 0 @ September 7th, 2012 at 16:19 Comment # 142015
@Michael, silver is a no brainier to me. I keep adding it on dips. It is like my saving account. Can’t be nervous when buying silver and gold.
TO: davedtire user 6021 Ref: comment 116309 made at 9:15 AM
Just got to the comments for this morning. You posted about the jobs report. Then you made a second post that read:
Downtown Josh Brown@ReformedBroker
US economy adds 12k Chair Whisperers in August, not enough say economists.
Would you mind telling me what is(was) meant by 12K chair whisperers? Thanks in advance.
User ID: 0 @ September 7th, 2012 at 14:32 Comment # 141991
@Kids Pastor, just humor, a reference to the empty chair Clint was speaking to at the Republican convention
SHow me & all..check out QRM that oldster likes. I got it earlier at 1.24 and its already up 3 cents.
User ID: 0 @ September 7th, 2012 at 16:19 Comment # 142014
@Ezepace, I got some on his suggestion too. Looks very solid with LOTS of potential.
I just got a fill on ARNA 2014 Jan 10 calls at 2.75…..Ive had order in for almost 2 weeks..
User ID: 0 @ September 7th, 2012 at 14:41 Comment # 141993
@Ezepace, great trade
User ID: 0 @ September 7th, 2012 at 14:59 Comment # 141999
@Ezepace, re PPHM just saw this Adam Feuerstein@adamfeuerstein
$PPHM – a 5-week difference in PFS translated into a 6 mos. difference in OS. How is that possible?
User ID: 0 @ September 7th, 2012 at 15:21 Comment # 142004
@Ezepace, and this Adam Feuerstein@adamfeuerstein
$PPHM – Still want to see a breakdown of response/OS based on geographies. Not disclosed in today’s data.
He’s targeting NWI member picks now (:
User ID: 0 @ September 7th, 2012 at 15:59 Comment # 142008
@Ezepace, I followed you adding some contracts at $2.77
User ID: 0 @ September 7th, 2012 at 16:00 Comment # 142011
@actionjack, We want to hold these till we hit 40-50 yes…..?
User ID: 0 @ September 7th, 2012 at 16:08 Comment # 142012
@Ezepace, I followed you also. 40-50 would be sweet. dare to dream.
User ID: 0 @ September 7th, 2012 at 16:24 Comment # 142016
@actionjack, me too…
User ID: 0 @ September 7th, 2012 at 18:12 Comment # 142025
@saxophones2, I kept going back and forth between the $7 or the $10, bought I bought the 10′s… may add some $7 if we go any lower.
zerohedge@zerohedge
Patents Wars 2: The Asian Empire Strikes Back – Are The Tables About To Turn On Apple? http://tinyurl.com/9xv96u4
User ID: 0 @ September 7th, 2012 at 16:32 Comment # 142017
@davedtire, HTC’s market share is shrinking dramatically. I doubt it has a serious threat to appl. Banning appl’s products will not benefit their sales. Maybe good for Samsung instead.
User ID: 0 @ September 10th, 2012 at 01:08 Comment # 142206
@davedtire, One thing to remember, times have changed in technology. It’s very hard to get and keep a significant technology advantage. The technology changes fast – and there are alternate technologies to consider.
Even Intel with billion dollar IC foundries can’t relax. The cloud and handheld devices show a demand that they didn’t anticipate
Look at how Apple built their mote *(protective defense. Style second to none. Being willing to kill your childern (make products to obsolete your own products obsolete before the competition did). Having created a cult following didn’t hurt. Yet look how fast Tom, Dick, and Chang closed in with me-t00+ offerings. So Apple created the Apps store – more defenses on the mote.
So with Steve gone, how many pages are left in the playbook he left. Will something unexpected come in?. Will his team misjudge?
What once was a decades long advantage (the Mote) has shrunk until it’s months now.
Interesting but very unpredictable times – especially for the investor who must watch the competitive wars from the sidelines but react almost as fast as the prime players.
Anyone buy the dip in DDD this morning…I did!
User ID: 0 @ September 7th, 2012 at 15:59 Comment # 142009
@actionjack, not yet. I think it has more room to correct. But if you plan to hold it long term, getting it now is not a bad idea either.
User ID: 0 @ September 7th, 2012 at 18:12 Comment # 142026
@Wendy L., I already sold on the bounce will buy back again if it retests the 50ma
User ID: 0 @ September 10th, 2012 at 01:20 Comment # 142207
@Wendy L., The first guy into the pool often finds out they haven’t filled the pool yet. In short it’s likely too soon for other than a swing trading approach.
A few areas, like medical, where low vstress parts can not be made wigth
When useful things with predictable, stable performance and realistic costs seem possible it will be a different market. Meanwhile rapid prototyping and such low stress, cost be damned applications will keep the players going.
Tobin Smith based is theory on the lazy S curve. Start with the few early adapters, Follow them, as general recognition and usage bloom and don’t hang around for market competitive saturation.
It looks like the software advantage of any competitor won’t be sustainable for long
For Option players:I have been taking advantage of the down draft in ARNA to write Oct 9 Puts for $1.00. If below 9 in 6 weeks I will gladly buy at $8.00 net. I am now trying to sell some more for $1.30. We shall see.
ARNA http://seekingalpha.com/article/853841-arena-pharmaceuticals-price-target-sets-low-bar?source=yahoo
Great video on why not to trade the macd crossovers….
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jJbZZIjKKCY&feature=related
zerohedge@zerohedge
Americans Take Day Off From Looking For Work http://onion.com/QgRk3H
PZG:
Dear Mr. Crupi. 2.5 million shares traded today and your share price ticked up a mere 2 cents. The shorts are piling on trying to suppress the share price. The huge open interest in the September $2.50 calls is the likely reason. They are probably at a near panic right now.
You could create a mammoth short squeeze if you were to announce anything that generates significant interest on the buy side.
Do it.
User ID: 0 @ September 7th, 2012 at 17:08 Comment # 142021
@William Klawonn, I will try to work in a good seekingalpha article this weekend. I think you are correct in your assessment.
User ID: 0 @ September 7th, 2012 at 19:44 Comment # 142030
@MR. JOSEPH, I encourage you to do so !!! Your writing is superb……and it will be a benefit and bonus IMO…
I was more than impressed with your work on ARNA , and also very impressed with your QUIK article.
When does it get published, I hadn’t seen it there yet…?
Thanks in advance.
User ID: 0 @ September 7th, 2012 at 20:13 Comment # 142036
@MR. JOSEPH, If you would like another set of eyes to take a look before you publish, I am certain JO will oblige
.
Better yet: We could form our own investment analytics company and publish articles on under followed stocks. with our own price targets.
I am certain we can write better articles than a lot of folks that are making a living at it.
User ID: 0 @ September 7th, 2012 at 20:36 Comment # 142042
@William Klawonn, Great suggestion…our work especially that of Josephs on ARNA definately helped….
User ID: 0 @ September 7th, 2012 at 23:49 Comment # 142067
WK, Mr J, EZ, I like it. Another concerted effort by NWI to affect an outcome for one of our investments. I’ll participate if needed.
User ID: 0 @ September 8th, 2012 at 10:51 Comment # 142103
@William Klawonn, I’m in. Let’s do it.
Gold and Bonds
————————-
BOND KING BILL GROSS DECLARES GOLD A BETTER INVESTMENT THAN BONDS!!
http://www.silverdoctors.com/bond-king-bill-gross-declares-gold-a-better-investment-than-bonds/
+
Lots of GLD, SLV, GDX, etc buying in the last few minutes of trading today.
JJC is doing well today as well.
User ID: 0 @ September 7th, 2012 at 18:17 Comment # 142028
@Wendy L., I think GLD, SLV and GDX will correct soon, which means it will go higher LOL! Seriously if helicopter bob pushes QE3 off until later in the year, that would do it.
User ID: 0 @ September 7th, 2012 at 20:09 Comment # 142034
@actionjack, ditto. And other commodities.
MM is this anywhere near where you live? Anyone here able to attend? WINNEMUCCA, NEVADA–(Marketwire – Sept. 7, 2012) – Paramount Gold and Silver Corp will be attending next week’s Denver Gold Forum from Sunday September 9th to Wednesday September 12th, 2012. Shareholders and investors in attendance are welcome to meet with Paramount’s management team at the Forum. Management will also be exhibiting on Tuesday September 11th at 5:30 pm in the Centennial Ballroom of the Hyatt Regency Denver.
Paramount CEO Christopher Crupi’s presentation will be available by webcast on the Paramount website on Wednesday September 12, 2012 http://www.paramountgold.com .
User ID: 0 @ September 7th, 2012 at 18:15 Comment # 142027
@Don, I live about 2.5 hours away, but Winnemucca is in Nevada not Denver?
User ID: 0 @ September 7th, 2012 at 20:21 Comment # 142038
@actionjack, the PR came from Winnemucca, Nevada. The event is in Denver.
Are you feel lucky today?
“I imagine these are the reasons that all analysts covering the company currently maintain buy ratings with a combined price target of $4. If the stock were to reach this consensus price target, an investment today would pocket investors almost 200% in profit.”
http://seekingalpha.com/article/854201-zalicus-pain-free-investing?source=yahoo
“Where Borrowing $105 Million Will Cost $1 Billion: Poway Schools”
(Here is a way to get money by floating a bond and not pay a dime for twenty years, move, and let the future residents pay:)
“Without increasing taxes, the district couldn’t afford to borrow money in the conventional way. So, instead of borrowing from investors over 20 or 30 years and paying the debt down each year, like a mortgage, the district got creative.
With advice from an Orange County financial consultant, the district borrowed the money over 40 years in a controversial loan called a capital appreciation bond. The key point for the district: It won’t make any payments on the debt for 20 years.”
http://www.voiceofsandiego.org/education/article_c83343e8-ddd5-11e1-bfca-001a4bcf887a.html
User ID: 0 @ September 7th, 2012 at 20:12 Comment # 142035
@Curious1, The district heads should be fired! The debt they will be leaving to future generations…I can’t believe it is legal.
Well, I’ve managed to put together my first video. Eventually there will be hundreds, if not thousands of these, I suspect, all posted to my website and made available both to the public and to subscribers. For now, I plan to use YouTube, in order to gauge the acceptability of what I’m talking about.
+
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=e5Tda1_xUvQ
+
Since it’s the weekend, I see no particular harm in responding here. There are, after all, very clear investment implications in what I’m talking about. For example, if robots start to maintain solar farms, a good battery design should come in handy.
+
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-08-27/ski-lifts-help-open-25-billion-market-for-storing-power-energy.html
User ID: 0 @ September 7th, 2012 at 21:54 Comment # 142058
@Carl Flygt, Wow…you look EXACTLY as I pictured YOU!!! An outdated Berkeley professor….and your ideas are the same….please dont tell me that you once taught at Berkeley?
User ID: 0 @ September 7th, 2012 at 23:22 Comment # 142062
@Gregory, outdated? Man, I’m with it.
+
I’ve taken courses at Berkeley, mostly in the Philosophy department. I think John Searle’s work on speech acts, intentionality and social ontology are all very important.
+
How do you like the video?
User ID: 0 @ September 7th, 2012 at 23:42 Comment # 142065
@Carl Flygt,
I am a very tolerant, albeit, an ignorant individual. I subscribe to MM for investment ideas and direction, as do many of us. I have watched you deliver what amounts to your personal (and I won’t use some phrases) agenda of whatever the frick it it is…call me stupid…but your bs is over the top. I am sorry MM has allowed you to use this forem to express your agenda..right or wrong…you have overstepped your privileges…It is time for you to move on. You have become a cit on this incredible board…go away..(I’ll pay you subscription losses)..
User ID: 0 @ September 7th, 2012 at 23:50 Comment # 142068
@Jake, ignorance and intolerance go hand in hand.
User ID: 0 @ September 8th, 2012 at 00:17 Comment # 142070
Jake, I think I am following MM’s guidelines now. If I’m not, someone will point it out.
+
As long as I’m following the guidelines, I don’t see how you can complain, or why you would want to.
+
If what I say tends to make you uncomfortable, pass over it.
User ID: 0 @ September 8th, 2012 at 00:21 Comment # 142071
@Carl Flygt,
Repeat after me…This is an Investment Forum..an Investment Forum..an Investment Forum…not a Forum for someone to inject their personal views on whatever subject, accepted or not..You have attempted to hijack this board, for whatever your personal reasons…many have asked you to obstain from your diatribes…I just ask…Can I pay your subscription to go away?
User ID: 0 @ September 8th, 2012 at 00:25 Comment # 142072
Of course not. I’m having too much fun.
+
I am posting material relevant to investments. I am posting nothing not relevant to investments.
User ID: 0 @ September 8th, 2012 at 00:30 Comment # 142073
@Carl Flygt,
Carl..on second thought…and certainly while I am not qualified (note)…I think you should seek personal guidance from a few of the professionals who visit these boards..you seem to be on a personal destructive path (my opinion)….you think to much of yourself…I am done with this dialogue..I see what I see..To many are unwilling to call what they see..You need help!
User ID: 0 @ September 8th, 2012 at 00:40 Comment # 142074
OK, let’s ask the Other Carl. He’s a pro.
+
OC, who needs help here?
User ID: 0 @ September 8th, 2012 at 00:48 Comment # 142075
@Carl Flygt,
Funny…but telling…isn’t it..You and OC need help.?
Any Doc’s willing to give an opinion…Nevermind… That falls in to CF or OC’s (?) game structure..
User ID: 0 @ September 8th, 2012 at 00:52 Comment # 142076
No! There really is another Carl on this board, and he’s an expert on psychology. This isn’t me hallucinating.
+
… LOL
User ID: 0 @ September 8th, 2012 at 09:19 Comment # 142095
@Jake, Please don’t bite at CF’s bait. Ignor him!
User ID: 0 @ September 9th, 2012 at 02:01 Comment # 142158
@LRB, agreed, this is painful to read
Re: Quik. I published the final version of the article at the close:
http://m.seekingalpha.com/article/853981-quicklogic-the-next-high-tech-growth-stock?source=email_rt_article_readmore&ifp=0
User ID: 0 @ September 7th, 2012 at 19:46 Comment # 142031
@MR. JOSEPH, AHhh i didnt read far enough…Terrific !!!
User ID: 0 @ September 7th, 2012 at 20:04 Comment # 142032
@MR. JOSEPH, Excellent work. Thanks for preparing a comprehensive article.
User ID: 0 @ September 7th, 2012 at 20:37 Comment # 142043
@GLENN YARBROUGH, Are you the Glenn Yarbrough?
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=H09g3gZ7XAs
(skip the opening ad).
User ID: 0 @ September 7th, 2012 at 20:43 Comment # 142046
@William Klawonn, nope, he is a bit older than me (just a bit), and I do not know the words to “Baby The Rain Must Fall”. If I were him, I would not be trying so hard to find more powder to use for QUIK, ARNA and PZG
User ID: 0 @ September 7th, 2012 at 20:52 Comment # 142048
@MR. JOSEPH, Great article. Glad you are with us.
User ID: 0 @ September 7th, 2012 at 21:14 Comment # 142052
@MR. JOSEPH, whoa! That’s one heck of an article. You’re writing like you really understand the business. I guess you do.
+
User ID: 0 @ September 7th, 2012 at 23:32 Comment # 142063
@MR. JOSEPH, Thanks for posting your article to SA, it should raise some heads and start the kettle boiling….. Rode it all the way down since 2007, long term holder may add at these levels.
User ID: 0 @ September 8th, 2012 at 00:54 Comment # 142077
@MR. JOSEPH,
Congrat’s on a detailed thorough write-up about a company I knew nothing about……. I’ll watch the stock, for now……
User ID: 0 @ September 8th, 2012 at 10:55 Comment # 142105
@oldster3, My article uses common knowledge based upon research of the stock using info in the public domain. My article is based on common knowledge facts, press releases, conference calls, investorsbussinessdaily, and wall street journal. I try to give different ideas, perspectives and links to research. I hope I cited all my sources! It got 2500 views since it was posted.
User ID: 0 @ September 8th, 2012 at 08:41 Comment # 142093
@MR. JOSEPH, terrific analysis … and masterful presentation targeting retail investors. “Google and Apple potential” should excite lots of interest and comments. Great work.
User ID: 0 @ September 8th, 2012 at 09:54 Comment # 142098
@MR. JOSEPH, A really outstanding analysis of a complex subject. I loved the editing! Thanks.
3D Printing
—————
“Keep an eye on DDD and be patient to enter long when some of the hype dust settles or when the company has shown enough growth results to warrant its stock price, or more correctly, its valuation. As discussed earlier, with its stock price being 70 times that of its earnings the past twelve months, the stock price has built in a ‘hype premium’. Instead of paying for this premium, it would be wise to keep DDD on your watch list until a pullback indicates that the technology is catching up to the surrounding publicity or valuation can be better substantiated.”
http://seekingalpha.com/article/854181-are-you-buying-the-3d-printing-hype?source=email_rt_article_title&ifp=0
Manipulation of Silver Mkt.
http://tipggita32.wordpress.com/2012/09/05/jpmorgan-silver-scandal-may-break-this-month-silver-to-break-50-in-near-future/
User ID: 0 @ September 7th, 2012 at 20:23 Comment # 142039
@Bomber, nice info but they can still keep manipulating it. When gold breaks last high, I will not be surprised to see silver also breaks out to a new high. They will be still very volatile. Investors need to have the stomach and the patience for it.
Mr Murphy, can you give us an update on GOLD, SILVER and GDX since we had the big move today. GOLD is clearly above the 1700 area. Best to wait for a retest of the 1690-1700 area for a runup to 1800+?
User ID: 0 @ September 7th, 2012 at 20:31 Comment # 142041
@actionjack, MM replied last night already unless he has something new to add. In case you missed it –
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Michael Murphy Reply:
User ID: 7191 @ September 7th, 2012 at 08:40 Comment # 116296
@Wendy L., I think GDX could get to $58 on this move, but that would be the outlier. Certainly going to be a firefight at $53.
+ also
Michael Murphy Reply:
User ID: 7191 @ September 6th, 2012 at 20:09 Comment # 116225
@Wendy L.,
.
.
I think gold ends the year around $1900, then hits $2200 early next year.
I just took the tour at FIN VIZ..
Great site to check out and as oldster says “It is FREE”
http://www.finviz.com/help/guided-tour.ashx
As I expected we still need that IGNORE button. Too bad
But apparently not responding directly does make it obvious that is the correct approach, and eliminate the detrimental back and forth. It will become more obvious when the only one responding is himself… However I believe he will continue anyway.
I would suggest that MM change rule #4:
“Don’t post here about politics or religion – your aren’t going to change anyone’s mind”
to
“Don’t post here about politics, religion, or your philosophical opinions – you aren’t going to change anyone’s mind.”
I would also suggest that he add one more:
“6. The same rules apply to weekends as well.”
Sure we are more relaxed and lenient on the weekends, but no one wants anymore political arguments, pseudo-lessons on conversational dynamics, or weird theories about robots controlling business and the world.
Today was a better than usual board I am sure because of our new rules.. Have a great weekend all.
User ID: 0 @ September 7th, 2012 at 21:10 Comment # 142051
@Fuller, I’m sure you can see that this is a political post. Now tell us, what investing implications does it have? Or do you want to suspend Rule 5 for some reason?
User ID: 0 @ September 7th, 2012 at 23:35 Comment # 142064
On second thought, maybe you don’t see that your post is political. Keith Fox in 116253 doesn’t seem to understand what a political post is.
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A political post is any post directing an agenda. An agenda is a system of rules (a system of concepts) aimed at group behavior.
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MM’s point is that anyone pushing an agenda here needs to be able to show that there’s an investing implication in doing that. Otherwise, people’s speech tends toward the sort of thing one finds in dumb, non-professional circles.
User ID: 0 @ September 8th, 2012 at 02:10 Comment # 142085
Jake, re: 116509, now you’re just repeating yourself and hoping for a different outcome. That’s the definition of insanity. Give it a rest.
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Nobody here needs an Ignore button. When faced with something out of one’s league, unless that something is pure tyranny, what is needed is humility and openmindedness. Twitchy fingered arrogance is just an expression of the mob.
User ID: 0 @ September 8th, 2012 at 00:55 Comment # 142078
@Carl Flygt,
Ok…I give up…CF…please explain to us why you believe you have a right (and obligation) to post your (non investment related) diatribes…this is an investment forum…Do you know what you signed up for…or are you just that uninformed…repeat: Investment Forum..Investment Forum…not personal forum for me (CF)…
User ID: 0 @ September 8th, 2012 at 01:01 Comment # 142079
@Jake,
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1. I am not posting diatribes;
2. I am not posting non-investment related material.
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If either 1 or 2 is false, please provide an example.
User ID: 0 @ September 9th, 2012 at 21:22 Comment # 142198
@Jake, CF states in his YouTube video that he is using our “capital investment” forum to test his ideas. I am just stating the facts from the horse’s mouth.
User ID: 0 @ September 8th, 2012 at 01:26 Comment # 142081
With reference to 116504.
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Come on, Jake. We are using rules here for a reason. Only if we pay close and faithful attention to the rules of conversation, with the hard thinking that requires, do we lift ourselves above the animal level.
+
MM has now given the rules of conversation here, and everybody thinks they’re reasonable. For you to except yourself from these rules is to threaten to keep this little community in the Dark Ages.
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Contrary to what you say above, there is a desperate need for you and people like you (I don’t mean this in a mean-spirited way) to give examples, when asked, of the truth claims they make. If they (if you) don’t we get the subhuman politics of places like Washington DC.
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If they (if you) start to play by superior rules, they (you, we) become superior beings, adapted to truth. Like angels.
User ID: 0 @ September 8th, 2012 at 01:30 Comment # 142083
Now I ask you, Jake, does it or does it not require courage to insist on truth in this world?
User ID: 0 @ September 8th, 2012 at 02:25 Comment # 142086
@Carl Flygt,
“Nobody here needs an Ignore button. ”
Would that be because you have a complex from being ignored…Woops…insisting on the truth..
Repeat after me…this is an Investment Forum…an Investment Forum..not a CF forum..
(go pay for your own and see if “they will come”)…
User ID: 0 @ September 8th, 2012 at 03:08 Comment # 142087
Hi Jake,
OK, I’ll give you that my position against the Ignore button is self-serving. You are right: I don’t want anyone here to be able to wall themselves off from me.
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But who would? We are a small community, probably fewer than 1000. Suppose we were actually living together, say in a kibbutz. Now suppose there was a movement in the kibbutz to create cocoons around certain places in the dining hall, so that certain people wouldn’t be forced to look at other people. Do you think that would fly?
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My response here is not pathological, as you want to make it out to be. At least I don’t think it is. It’s totally natural. What kind of a normal human being would belong to a Church where some people were allowed to attend the Sacrament and socialize with the flock while wearing sunglasses?
This is pretty COOL..
Use Trade Station or other programs on your ipad…
Video tells how…
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yUiJ5BPd6Lk
PPHM- Bavitux. is an add on at least to almost every chemother. program for all cancers. It also works by itself to stimulate the immune system. The latest results on lung cancer are just the beginning! The Holy Grail? Just research this-I’ve been studying this co. for years and the process has been slow but there has been no bad news. The shorts will manufacture some bad stuff to knock it down but we are used to this. What do you think? PB-MD
@ Everyone
I think PZG issued another 10mm shares after their last quarterly report which was for the period ending 4/27/2012, on 5/15 there was a prospectus and offering showing on edgar for 10,417,776 Shares
I’m not sure how to tell if they actually issued them or not though without an updated report.
If so, that would bring be the 147,387,288 previously outstanding plus the 10,417,776 up to 157,805,064 which would drop MM’s estimate from the RR to $9.82?
Can anyone catch me up? I have a sizeable position that is about even now. With all the excitement, I decided to go through the numbers myself. Anyone have updated confirmed numbers? I’m not saying MM’s numbers are wrong. Just trying to follow. Thanks to whomever points me in the correct direction.
I wish they would put out a recent report showing their cash situation and current outstanding shares.
User ID: 0 @ September 8th, 2012 at 04:10 Comment # 142088
@Nick, see Paramount website http://paramountgold.com/Investors/ShareStructure.asp
I would say the fully diluted nr of shares matter. So indeed > 158mm shares. So $15 per share, the current high end of MM’s estimate range, requires a $2.4bn bid.
User ID: 0 @ September 8th, 2012 at 14:27 Comment # 142127
@LOUIS HENDRIKS, Thanks… So I will base it off the 158mm shares and not the 147mm that MM noted. I wonder how much money the company has left. $16 M is what is posted at Edgar and yahoo but I wonder what sort of cash on hand they have to keep going. I get this feeling that if PZG doesn’t catch a hard bid this year, they will need to do another round of financing… More dilution. What do we think?
User ID: 0 @ September 8th, 2012 at 19:04 Comment # 142143
@Nick, the stock price will be determined by gold and silver prices, stock market and the deposits PZG holds. More shares will pressure pps but higher gold and silver prices, and also new discovery from more capital spending should eliminate the dilution effect to the minimum at least unless it goes down with the stock market.
Jake, see what happens when you reply? So let’s not. I finally see that is the correct approach. My post triggered three straight responses before he gave up. Your two continuations caused another four.
Look at his 116512. It makes very plain that his hidden agenda is to disrupt the board. This will become obvious when his posts are answered only by himself.
This will probably trigger another three or four! Sorry ’bout that but this way we get it out of the way early.
User ID: 0 @ September 8th, 2012 at 07:43 Comment # 142090
@Fullerino, do you actually think I produced that video to disrupt this board??
User ID: 0 @ September 8th, 2012 at 09:30 Comment # 142097
@Fuller, Shoot! Now what am I going to do with all the chips, popcorn and beer that I bought if THE SHOW is no longer to take place? I should have believed my own post in which I stated you were an intelligent person.
User ID: 0 @ September 8th, 2012 at 10:29 Comment # 142099
Hey, Fuller. I don’t want to let you off the hook here. After all, people are expecting some weekend entertainment. Plus, there’s a principle involved.
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This post of yours is completely political, but you have posted no investment implications for it. Are we to assume that you believe Rule 5 doesn’t apply to you?
+
If yes, how can we expect the board to function smoothly?
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It should go without saying that if some people except themselves arbitrarily from what is expected of everyone, nothing can really be expected of anyone. And that’s the classic recipe for civil war.
User ID: 0 @ September 8th, 2012 at 11:35 Comment # 142110
@Rich E,
User ID: 0 @ September 8th, 2012 at 17:07 Comment # 142134
@Fuller, bingo.
Ahead now with PZG, but do not like the doji formed Friday. Will sell half at the open Monday.
User ID: 0 @ September 8th, 2012 at 10:37 Comment # 142100
@Fuller,
(( 
((
Sadly, I now have to agree with you in the need to “blank out” nuisance posters…….. Didn’t want to “cave in” to this, but…… oh well (what will be will be…)
User ID: 0 @ September 8th, 2012 at 10:41 Comment # 142101
@oldster3, the rules here, plus people’s inner moral guidance, should be sufficient to control nuisance. Artificial intelligence should not be introduced.
User ID: 0 @ September 8th, 2012 at 10:55 Comment # 142104
@Carl Flygt,
You are the “symbolic” pig….
http://carboncoach.typepad.com/the_carbon_coach/2010/05/how-to-mudwrestle-with-a-pig-if-you-want-to.html
User ID: 0 @ September 8th, 2012 at 10:57 Comment # 142106
If we introduce and begin to rely on artificial intelligence, instead of on a living moral intuition, we become half-human.
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Nobody should face death in a half-human condition. That’s very unlikely to go well.
User ID: 0 @ September 8th, 2012 at 11:03 Comment # 142107
Oldster, I’ll give you 116530. It’s true. But getting down in the mud is the only way to clean up the general situation. That’s what Christianity showed. And Christianity worked.
+
The general situation today really needs cleaning.
User ID: 0 @ September 8th, 2012 at 18:53 Comment # 142139
@Fuller, it is because investors are waiting for FED’s decision. If printing is confirmed, it should go higher. If not, then it will pull back again. The expectation is that FED will need to print sooner or later. Same story for ECB..
User ID: 0 @ September 8th, 2012 at 22:13 Comment # 142149
@Wendy L., bet on it. The FED has an obligation to act. I’m writing a seekingalpha article for PZG. I will file it by Friday. It’s looking really good. Looking at the behavior of Silver during QE2 it went up so I expect parabolic move. Also, I see volume indicating that investors sold gold, miners and explorers earlier in the year are now scrambling to get back in.
Modern wheat a “perfect, chronic poison,” doctor says
Watch Davis’ full interview in the video.
http://www.cbsnews.com/8301-505269_162-57505149/modern-wheat-a-perfect-chronic-poison-doctor-says/?tag=stack
User ID: 0 @ September 8th, 2012 at 11:39 Comment # 142111
@Ron Perlman, Excellent…There are a lot of us in medicine that know of this problem….My patients that give up gluten products generally feel a lot better and lose weight as welll. They comment their digestion is better too.
User ID: 0 @ September 8th, 2012 at 12:49 Comment # 142117
@Ezepace, I agree with you. I gave up bread, pasta, and rice. I try to limit these items to 1-2 per month. I found after a certain age my body metabolizes them slower and builds fat.
User ID: 0 @ September 8th, 2012 at 17:34 Comment # 142136
@MR. JOSEPH, Me too. About 3 months or so now. I have lost some weight and have more energy. Less afternoon crashes. Not easy as I was raised on bread and pasta but I am glad I did it. Should see later this month if any improvement in my numbers ( thyroid and cholesterol)
@Fuller,
I guess that I find it easy to “skip-over” his non-stock discussions……….so don’t really have a problem……. Heck, I don’t have a problem with anyone posting here……(adds color to this board)
Sprint appears to be ready for another move up, as I posted earlier. Buy Ford (preferably if it moves back under 10) for a long term increase based on economic recovery if you believe we will have such.
MM pointed out that the market doesn’t like uncertainty about the election results and as the likely states accrue to either one, the uncertainty would decrease. Given all the polls, if we add the Strong and Likely State electoral votes together for Obama and for Romney, the totals over the last few days have gone from Obama 225, Romney 191, to Obama 241, Romney 191. The change was due to Mighigan, which no one believed Romney was going to take anyway.
http://www.electoral-vote.com/evp2012/Pres/Maps/Sep03.html
http://www.electoral-vote.com/evp2012/Pres/Maps/Sep08.html
With only 29 votes needed for Obama to reach 270, there are many combinations that would do it for him.
See the NYT today for the probabilities involved.
http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/09/07/sept-7-polls-find-hints-of-obama-convention-bounce/
Looks like Sprint may be late to the iPhone party.
http://isource.com/2012/09/05/iphone-5-launch-on-october-15th-confirmed-by-leaked-sprint-training-doc/
User ID: 0 @ September 8th, 2012 at 11:58 Comment # 142114
@DAVE K, How late will it be? Do you know the official launch date? Is it really Sep 12?
User ID: 0 @ September 8th, 2012 at 19:36 Comment # 142145
@Fuller, Both AT&T and Verizon have vacation black outs for employees for the last 2 weeks of September which is consistent with past launch dates.
http://gizmodo.com/5826068/unconfirmed-iphone-5-may-appear-at-the-end-of-september
No real proof, but this has been a very reliable indicator. I also read elsewhere that Sprint may still be sitting on a lot of iPhone 4 inventory which Apple will not buy back. Sorry, don’t have a link for that one.
Does anyone have a feel or how this market may top out? Will we get a blow-off top or rounding over or sudden crash without warning? Thoughts?
User ID: 0 @ September 8th, 2012 at 12:59 Comment # 142118
@Fuller,
I believe it depends on:
#1, Bull Mkt ending & into Bear Mkt = rounded topping, generally
+
#2, Bull Mkt interrupted for a Bear fall = sudden, swift….(as in an not-factored-in election result, new crisis, war, terrorism event of noteworthy significance, FED actions, going-over-the-cliff)
User ID: 0 @ September 8th, 2012 at 13:16 Comment # 142119
@oldster3, I guess I am thinking that this one will end with the #2 sudden crash for whatever reason. Just hoping we have some signs of the impending event, but guess that is not very likely. But the smart money just might give us a few clues if it is not a terrorism type event.
I am up roughly 20 % now from this time last year, so believe I will start edging out a bit.
User ID: 0 @ September 8th, 2012 at 13:19 Comment # 142120
@Fuller,
I agree….. I believe it will be the fiscal cliff we go over…..(at least I hope so, & am looking forward to it with “relish”…)
User ID: 0 @ September 8th, 2012 at 13:23 Comment # 142121
@oldster3, How are you going to prepare? Sell or hedge? Or hold and buy more after the “event” I have a few long term cores that I will not touch, but some (make that MOST) of this spec stuff will have to go. I never have had much success with trying to hedge.
User ID: 0 @ September 8th, 2012 at 13:44 Comment # 142123
@Fuller,
I’ll “pare back” 95% fo my MM holdings…. I’ll buy HDGE…(these boys know their “bear business”, IMO, and are simple to time & follow)… I’ll pare back other “small cap” holdings as well……. small caps classically get killed in bear mkts…………….
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=IWM&p=W&b=2&g=0&id=p80610974910&a=276847434
—- How deep a drop in the bear??
User ID: 0 @ September 8th, 2012 at 13:59 Comment # 142125
@Oldster: Based on your R2000 chart I would guess initial drop to ~75, a bounce (me be gittin out) then a fairly rapid drop to your 60 target. If things are REALLY bad, then the 40s before trying to build a base.
XIDE: Going thru the list and lookit: a double bottom, and other positive indicators (Weekly). Looks like accumulation to me, and not much negativity out there YET.
User ID: 0 @ September 8th, 2012 at 13:46 Comment # 142124
The Daily chart confirms, or the other way around, and I particularly like the good volume up candles on June 8 and Aug 3; the cross of the 50 over the 200; and the “hammer” candle taking it back over the 200. Then there is Oldster’s positive Aroon cross.
XIDE…
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=XIDE&p=D&b=2&g=0&id=p84533374313&a=276849575
—— I’d await the breakout, if there is one….(and even then, there’s so much overhead resistance as to cause “rough going”…)
Mr Joseph, I tried to submit a comment on Seeking alpha but it didnt post as of yet.
My comment was that with all these good things QUIK may do, that it seems to me that they could move to 6-10 bucks and then be a buyout candidate probably at twice that.
Do you agree? Do you know what companies thinking is in regard to being bought out……Do they have a poison pill or would they be glad to sell at a certain price?
Also if you want assistance on PZG article email me….Im just not so knowledgeable on mining as compared to medicine …smiles
User ID: 0 @ September 8th, 2012 at 17:01 Comment # 142133
@Ezepace, Jim Stevens was an ex-hewlett packard executive. I was at HP also back in the 1980s but we did not know each other because I was in the finance end of the business and Jim was in the sales. He told me the following:
“I go back a long way with Andy to his days at AMD and then Broadcom. He is solid and a very good sales and Marketing person.
In addition, I can see them being acquired by an Atmel that has several wins in the mobile space with their touch display controllers. Interesting in that Atmel’s CEO has worked with Andy in the past.”
If Quik is not acquired I would not be surprised to see $20/share by this time next year. I definitely see $6-$10 by the end of the year. Either way if you are a value investor I think you will have great gains with this stock. I think many here got in early enough to be patient. The stock is thinly traded and only trades some 36 million shares. I’ll bet NWI subscribers own about 10-20% of those shares.
User ID: 0 @ September 8th, 2012 at 18:56 Comment # 142141
@MR. JOSEPH, Thanks for this input.. Ive also gotten to know James Stevens through our work on ARNA…Wish he was still here contributing.
OT
I still like Clint ! – just a great very smart grumpy old man !
User ID: 0 @ September 8th, 2012 at 15:03 Comment # 142130
@Show Me the Money,
Clint`s one of two people Ive ever felt the desire to have their autograph and is way up in my book.
I read yesterday that he responded to questions about his chair rambling and he said that it was a completely off the cuff last minute decision that he felt the need to do because certain “truths” have been lost. Notably, that this country belongs to the citizens and not the politicians and that if their unable or unwilling to do their rightful job their should step down or be fired. Considering the platform he used to deliver it think that took brass balls.
User ID: 0 @ September 8th, 2012 at 16:18 Comment # 142132
@Cal,
….also liked Clint as a kid years ago in Raw Hide ( 1960-1968 ) ! I was very young
-
Have had dinner at Clint’s Mission Ranch in Carmel — a good place to spend Lunch or Dinner Money.
Clint used to hang out here at least a few evenings a month…
http://www.missionranchcarmel.com/restaurant.html
User ID: 0 @ September 8th, 2012 at 18:55 Comment # 142140
@Show Me the Money, I agree… I like Clint…just saw his movie Unforgiven…on netflix..typical CE….
He has a terrific Yacht. On alaskan cruise last summer( At Ketchekan) he was moored with buddy Hackets boat as well. Clint has a helicopter. on his.
User ID: 0 @ September 8th, 2012 at 19:16 Comment # 142144
@Ezepace, Here are the two boats with a close up of Clint’s
AHh Camera date is wrong ..but thats ok….Ive only been to Alaska once and it was 2011.
Show me..I even resized it to 900 by 675….lol
User ID: 0 @ September 8th, 2012 at 22:29 Comment # 142150
@Ezepace,
by 3 of the richest men in the world – surprise
Clint has a cool boat – did you see him onboard ?
-
It appears when men have Billions++ the ego competition starts with having the biggest with boasts like “My Boat is Bigger than Your Boat”
3 of the largest Boats in the world are owned in coincidence
-
1. Paul Allen boat >> http://www.etsell.com/images/Octopuspp.pdf – 416 ft long
2. Larry Ellison http://i.pbase.com/o4/29/17729/1/54199814.risingsun_vg3.jpg – 452 ft long
(Sold to David Geffen… Larry got bored when his wife left him…)
3. Tom Perkins ( Maltese Falcon just sold in 2010 for 97 Million ) – 305 ft long
http://twistedsifter.com/2010/01/maltese-falcon-worlds-largest-sailing-yacht/
(Now owned by a Elena Ambrosiadou / Ikos Partners hedge fund owner ! )
———————————————————
hard to believe the size of Allen’s boat but to catch up Ellison designed his Rising Sun to be a few feet longer and wider than Allen’s Octopus
They believe Bigger is better !
Has anyone seen or boarded any of these 3 world- class boats ? MM, Mr Joseph … or ?
-
My favorite of the 3 The Maltese Falcon…
http://www.symaltesefalcon.com/photos.php
User ID: 0 @ September 9th, 2012 at 00:14 Comment # 142156
@Ezepace,
What a phony egomaniac…….. he could have used much of that “loot” for those in need & those suffering….
User ID: 0 @ September 9th, 2012 at 05:17 Comment # 142163
@SMTM, the nr1 would be the Maltese Falcon. By far the most impressive yaught amongst these three. Beauty and elegance outweight size. (or can we use the word obese for Allen’s and Ellison’s ugly ducklings….)
User ID: 0 @ September 9th, 2012 at 09:47 Comment # 142173
@Ezepace, Clint obviously needs a tax cut.
User ID: 0 @ September 10th, 2012 at 03:10 Comment # 142211
@Ezepace, Buddy Hacket — RIP 2003
Tornado warning issued for NYC. Is that unusual or does it happen occasionally?
User ID: 0 @ September 9th, 2012 at 03:40 Comment # 142162
@William Klawonn, My wife and I were in NYC in August 2008 when a tornado hit Central Park a few blocks away.
BELVIQ Scheduling Comments by Doctor Vig
Belviq (lorcaserin) received FDA approval for weight loss on 6 /27 /2012. The FDA recommended to the DEA that Belviq be considered a schedule IV controlled substance. The DEA will decide if Belviq should be a schedule IV controlled substance, a schedule V controlled substance, or not a controlled substance at all. The DEA will soon list their recommendation in the Federal Register, and then people can comment during the next 30 days. Some time after the 30 day comment period, the DEA will make the final decision regarding scheduling of Belviq.
To review, a schedule II drug has a high potential for abuse, such as oxycodone (for pain ) and Adderall (for attention deficit disorder). Prescriptions must be written or printed and must be signed by the doctor and refills can not be given. A schedule III drug has some potential for abuse, such as Vicodin (hydrocodone with acetaminophen). Prescriptions can be oral (called in), faxed , or written , and may be refilled up to 6 months. A schedule IV drug has low potential for abuse, such as the sleeping pill temazepam. Prescriptions can be oral (called in) or written, including faxed prescriptions, and may be refilled up to 6 months. Schedule V drugs also have low potential potential for abuse, and are subject to state and local regulation. Examples of Schedule V drugs includes Lyrica, the diarrhea pill Lomotil, and the cough medicine promethazine with codeine. (Eventually, doctors will be able to send controlled substances through the electronic health records, when both the electronic health records vendors and the pharmacies are ready to do this from a security standpoint.)
Lorcaserin is a selective 5HT2c serotonin receptor agonist, with minimal effect on the 2b (valvulopathy) receptor and minimal effect on the 2a (hallucinations) receptor. Lorcaserin potency at the 2c, 2b, and 2a receptors, (EC50, nM), is 39, 2380, and 553 respectively. Lorcaserin binding affinity at the 2c, 2b, and 2a receptors, (Ki, nM), is 13, 147, and 92 respectively), again demonstrating 2c receptor specificity.
From section 7.11 of the April 2012 lorcaserin briefing documents, stopping lorcaserin suddenly did not result in withdrawal effects in two phase two studies, APD356-003 and APD356-004. Psychological dependence was not assessed directly, but reinforcing effects were not seen in the human abuse potential study APD356-013. A formal abuse potential study was conducted on recreational drug users. Overall, lorcaserin at 20mg was not distinguishable from placebo. The 40 and 60mg doses were generally liked less than zolpidem or ketamine, and disliked more than any of the comparators. Subjects rated the overall lorcaserin experiences as negative, and indicated they would not take the drug again for recreational purposes. The potential for abuse based on these study results was considered to be very low.
Lorcaserin is a 5HT2c receptor agonist and causes decreased dopamine levels in the brain. Studies from Duke University Medical Center from June 2011 in the Journal of Pharmacology and Experimental Therapeutics demonstrated decreased nicotine use in rats who received lorcaserin. Other studies in rats show decreased tendency to use cocaine when 5HT2C agonists are given. Decrease in dopamine levels can also be associated with decreased tendency for excessive gambling, or for sexual addictions. (See the books “5HT2c RECEPTORS IN THE PATHOPHYSIOLOGY OF CNS DISEASE” by Di Giovanni, 2010 , and “THE COMPASS OF PLEASURE” by David Linden, 2011.)
Lorcaserin causes decreased appetite, and also likely causes decreased tendency to use nicotine, to use cocaine, to be an excessive gambler, or to be a sexual addict. I do believe that lorcaserin has a low potential for abuse, and in fact may in the future be used to treat multiple addictions. I do not believe that lorcaserin should be a controlled substance.
Steven Vig md internal medicine Tucson, Arizona 9 /8/2012
User ID: 0 @ September 8th, 2012 at 19:04 Comment # 142142
@steven vig, this compound is starting to look like a real medical breakthrough.
I’m not a ‘mastermind’, but definitely the nuguy on the NWI block and also generally in the investment arena. At this time I probably have more than a prudent percentage of my net worth in stocks, mostly NWI picks.
Yesterday morning, MM [@ Comment # 116299] said, “The hedge funds and institutions are underperforming year to date, and need a trend to make their bonuses. I think the bell rang on Thursday. Once we get past The Bearded One next Thursday. we have a shot at new all-time S&P highs by year end. Or a crash. Thin ice, indeed.”
My question is this – how do experienced investors such as yourselves mentally react to this statement suggesting all time S&P highs, OR A CRASH? I did see, just before I started this post that Oldster3 and Fuller touched on this above in #116541 and 116544 but I’m still a bit queasy.
What ‘bad weather’ preparations do you make at this time to cover your behind from getting slammed if the, “or a crash” is the scenario we’re looking at? Is it a combination of staying glued to the computer 24/7 to catch the first hints of doom, or paring back equal percentage of all holdings, or get more heavy into options, or …….?
User ID: 0 @ September 8th, 2012 at 21:02 Comment # 142147
@player2bnamedlater, MMs picks for the most part can run independent of the overall market. A few RR’s back he mentioned which picks he thought were going to be ok in the coming recession, which stocks we might have to watch/ avoid etc… Just go back through the RR archives and you will have your answer.
This weekend Ive spent time reviewing candlesticks and a few indicators.
Here is a start to review candlesticks.
The why as to why we should focus on candles…..well they not only show PRICE of the day the key is they show the FORCE….And when seen in patterns and combined with western technical indicators ie meld EAST and WEST… they can be very predictive..
So here is my weekend gift two sites to start research…
1 http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=k9AlAvYa6MA&feature=related from here u can look at at least 7 videos..
2nd Terrific site .. take value of the message and skip the advertising part. This one is 1 hour long so skip if not interested….this video can also lead to a dozen more.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Dphb1O5qK14
User ID: 0 @ September 8th, 2012 at 22:46 Comment # 142151
@Ezepace, Been stydying Candlesticks for about 10 years. The definitive Candle book: “Japanese Candlestick Charting Techniques” by Steve Nison. Highly recommend. Excellent reference. Amazon and Alibris has it .. Use Google. Good used 1st Edition for <$40 which is what I have. There is a 2nd edition out now for around $60. don't know how much difference, but 1st ed is great.
eBay has ‘em also.
Fuller
User ID: 0 @ September 9th, 2012 at 00:22 Comment # 142157
@Fuller, YES Ive read it and met him……
User ID: 0 @ September 9th, 2012 at 06:52 Comment # 142165
@Ezepace,
Thanks for the video references.
My comment is directed to those who may not realize that his book is readily available.
User ID: 0 @ September 9th, 2012 at 10:35 Comment # 142174
@Fuller, very interesting in that Steve Nison has a program that works with Ninja Trader and Trade Station that scans all the data for candle stick patterns. That seems very powerful….
Take this and combine with some favorite western technicals, and one would have a pretty useful product..
That is partly what 1 hour video is about that I posted..
The cost advertised is 1095 lifetime…..
Im checking this out…
User ID: 0 @ September 10th, 2012 at 01:38 Comment # 142208
@Ezepace, In general Candlesticks work best over a few periods, not the long term, as in a reversal.
Alone they enhance visualization effects.
One problem is that can give a false sense as the binternals of the trading day can be masked. The Volume at price (the horizontal bars seen on many of the charts posted here) help you look inside the candle to see the real profile of the candle.
Its helpfile to understand pattern sequence, sticking points (S/R fore example an sequence of volume. Consider a candle. Was today open-up-down-close or the opposite – same candle but perhasps a wildly different story. Try ARNA day vs Minute charts for example.
User ID: 0 @ September 10th, 2012 at 11:02 Comment # 142214
@jcs…wise advice as usual from you…thanks
Mark Cuban quoted in Bloomberg on his FaceBook trade:
““I bought and sold FB shares as a TRADE, not an investment. I lost money. When the stock didn’t bounce as I thought/hoped it would, I realized I was wrong and got out. It wasn’t the fault of the FB CFO that I lost money. It was my fault. I know that no one sells me shares of stock because they expect the price of the stock to go up. So someone saw me coming and they sold me the stock. That is the way the stock market works. When you sit at the trading terminal you look for the sucker. When you don’t see one, it’s you. In this case it was me.”
There has been so much CF nonsense today that a response is necessary. I agree with oldster3 and I am reposting his previous link here.
http://carboncoach.typepad.com/the_carbon_coach/2010/05/how-to-mudwrestle-with-a-pig-if-you-want-to.html
Even though I agree, I gladly join the pig wrestlers here until the CF issue is resolved permanently.
……
@Carl Flygt,
CF, I’ll start this out on one simple positive note. I commend you on the theory you have chosen to pursue. However, I as well as most other’s here do not want to be involved with it to any degree.
…..
CF, I agree with many others that all of us should stop replying to you, but then you just fill up the board replying to yourself. Given the current rules of this board you are like a graffiti artist painting the town wherever and whenever you choose. There is no one to stop you, no one to clean up the mess and the consequences are not sufficient enough to persuade you to stop. It is irrelevant if your message is wrong or right. The truth is you have created your own revolution on an investing site where one is not needed.
…..
MM’s rule number 4:
Don’t post here about politics or religion – your aren’t going to change anyone’s mind.
…..
Everyone else here has not directly responded to your silliness about political posts, probably out of confusion. CF you continually try to include yourself in MM’s inferred definition of political posts. Others’ posts here to you or about you do not fall under that definition. To my knowledge discussing or addressing you is not relevant to the outcome of any current local, national or world politics as inferred by the definition. If you are currently pursuing a position in government in the upcoming elections, that could be relevant. But, so far no posts where you claim others are posting political comments addressed to you or about you is relevant to the inferred definition. It is necessary to point out your continued attempts to side step the rules with your word play based on your ignorance of the definition. You are well educated enough to understand what is inferred, but your kindergarten report card still has an F next to “Plays well with others”. The truth is nobody wants MM to waste his resources on an ignore button. But since we cannot walk away from you at recess, and the teacher won’t expel you from class, we need an ignore button. CF you could have made a great attorney with your ability to debate, but even a bad attorney knows to stop talking before they offend both the jury and judge.
…..
I won’t even address or critique your video because it is so far OT you should be ashamed at your rationalization to post it here. I would hope you don’t waste your time replying with your rationalization of how it falls into the category of inferred relevant investment discussions.
…..
You have forced the issue to the point where being civil with you is no longer desired or relevant. The only reason many here are maintaining civil responses to you is because they are respecting the wishes of others. Understand that discussion, debate, word play, etc. with your OT discussions are not desired and a complete waste of everyone’s time, except your’s apparently. While a reasonable degree of civility still remains in regard to you, please refrain from persuing your OT discussions here in any form.
…..
Nobody here is sitting on the other end of the seesaw, nobody here is pushing your swing, nobody here is spinning the marry-go-round for you here. It is possible that your ego is fed entirely on your perception of winning a debate, your perceived intellectual superiority and that you are completely detatched from all of us in a relevant social context. Most of us would choose to play with you at recess (legitimate inferred investing discussions). So you should either learn to adapt socially or accept being on an adult playground where you have intentionally chosen to be socially rejected based on your behavior.
User ID: 0 @ September 9th, 2012 at 06:57 Comment # 142167
@Keith Fox, ok, this is good.
+
A couple of boards back (#115764) I tried to make a distinction between First Order posts here, which initiate threads and in which the poster is obligated (by MM Rule 5) to explain the investing relevance of any political content, and Second Order posts, which are responses to a post. Requiring a Second Order post to show investing relevance would be going too far, I think. A Second Order response to a political post, which will be political by definition, only needs to be logically valid.
+
I think once we get this First Order/Second Order distinction clear to everybody, this board will settle down nicely. The distinction will confine political posts to threads where an attempt has been made to show investment relevance. It will also help make it clear to everyone what a political post actually is.
+
So far, the real, raw political postings here have been by Fuller, WK, et al, who seem to want to settle differences of opinion by shooting the people they don’t like, or by setting up a reversed sort of concentration camp, with people of differing views and priorities isolated from one another by means of high tech barbed wire.
User ID: 0 @ September 9th, 2012 at 14:48 Comment # 142187
@Carl Flygt,
IGNORE
User ID: 0 @ September 9th, 2012 at 16:45 Comment # 142190
@fubar, agree. MM, give us that ignoe button.
Great video interview with Frank Giustra regarding inflation vs deflation. Video is long (44 minutes) but well worth it and way more interesting than Carl F video.
http://www.kitco.com/ind/Tommy/20120905.html
To clarify……lumbar radiculopathy by definition means pathology to the nerve root where it comes out of the spine……a small hole called a neuroforamen that has a disk in front and bone behind. The gold standard treatment of choice is an epidural steroid injection. If that fails, then surgery. I should know cuz it’s what I do. I’m not sold on zalicus selling a medication for this indication. They should be marketing it for neuropathic pain.
How’d you like to invest in a gold mine in Afghanistan?
http://www.nytimes.com/2012/09/09/world/asia/afghans-wary-as-efforts-pick-up-to-tap-mineral-riches.html?_r=1&nl=todaysheadlines&emc=tha2_20120909
User ID: 0 @ September 9th, 2012 at 06:56 Comment # 142166
@Carl, Might need some sort of radiation shield for protection in order to get the gold out sometime in the future!
(Pretty close to Iran)
Re CF, would be nice to say to Scotty: “Up Shields!”
User ID: 0 @ September 9th, 2012 at 12:31 Comment # 142183
@Fuller, If this continues I’m going to ask them to beam me up.
User ID: 0 @ September 9th, 2012 at 23:55 Comment # 142205
@MR. JOSEPH, uh oh. Better be careful now.
@”player…” (post # 116573″ ) You said: “… definitely the nuguy on the NWI block and also generally in the investment arena. At this time I probably have more than a prudent percentage of my net worth in stocks, mostly NWI picks.”
NWI stocks are “SPECULATIVE” in spite of all comments and verbiage on this board that may seem otherwise.
They are in the main “unproven.” That is the premise of MM’s NWI picks. They are the “future winners” “MAYBE.” If lucky, you can participate in some of these winners, but in all likelihood, not very many.
You should NOT ” have more than a prudent percentage of my net worth in [NWI] stocks, ” You need to prune, and probably soon. I highly recommend that you get some of that net worth in some other type of investment. There are (or were) folks here that “lost it all” in some of these picks.
This is not meant in any way as a derogatory comment, just advice from one who has “been there- done that!” Try to find yourself some un-exciting, dividend payers that have stood the test of time and set up up your “other end of the BarBell” (which link I wish MM would fix as he said he would.)
Fuller
User ID: 0 @ September 9th, 2012 at 12:05 Comment # 142181
@Fuller, Many thanks. Your advice/suggestions are well taken.
As for the pruning, it ‘seems to me” that crashes move much faster than quick rises in the stock. IFF that is actually the case, then although pruning now ‘might’ result in a loss if there is a stock run up, the cost/loss to get quickly back in seems like it would be much less than the cost/loss if a crash occurs.
Sorry about the convoluted rambling but the prudence of pruning is (s)prouting! [sorry about that also, but it is Sunday pm].
Thanks again.
User ID: 0 @ September 9th, 2012 at 12:24 Comment # 142182
@player2bnamedlater,
Stock swoons are MUCH more rapid than stock rises, inevitably, when the markets turn negative…… stocks struggle to rise-over-time, where-as they collapse to support almost immediately on big negative BEAR turns
—— The psychology for this is quite inetersting……. it take time to convince someone to “risk capital & buy a stock” (the “do the D.D.” part…), it takes NO time to jump off & take any gains / minimize losses in a stock……
User ID: 0 @ September 9th, 2012 at 17:08 Comment # 142191
@oldster3, Thanks.
Until this weekend I hadn’t really thought about that concept of the pace difference between the swoon or the rise of a stock, nor as you pointed out, how quickly the sell decision can be made vs the time we really have to decide whether or not to return or buy back.
I’m glad I’m here.
User ID: 0 @ September 9th, 2012 at 18:53 Comment # 142195
@oldster3, Rise Like ROCKETS …..Fall Like STONES !!!!!!
User ID: 0 @ September 9th, 2012 at 12:31 Comment # 142184
@player2bnamedlater, My father-in-law was a farmer and once I asked him”When is the best time to prune?” His immediate answer: “When your knife is sharp!” The application to stocks he would not have understood, but there it is.
With spec stocks, you need to decide a percent that you are willing to lose or a price level, and dump immediately when that level of loss is at hand. As you say, you can always rebuy . When you become proficient and believe you are a “player” and if you are an active trader you can proceed to try to pick the highs and lows. It “AIN’T” easy.
I learned that it is best to try to get into a trend if at all possible. The old saying, “Cut the losses and let the profits run” has a lot going for it. On the other hand, another thing I have learned is that if you gain a profit, say 20%, especially in a short time, it is wise to take some of that profit. Now I am sounding like I am some sort of expert, and I am not. Every day teaches me another lesson and I have been doing this for a lot of years. Sorry about this rambling.
User ID: 0 @ September 9th, 2012 at 12:51 Comment # 142185
@Fuller, Agree with your theory Fuller. A loss of 15% should be the maximum.
User ID: 0 @ September 9th, 2012 at 17:10 Comment # 142192
@Fuller, Thanks again.
To MM: As I indicated in the post above, it would be a great service to your newer subscribers (and a refresher to your older ones) to have a good DESCRIPTIOIN of the “Bar Bell” strategy on your Bar Bell Strategy link, not just another link to your old presentation. I really feel that is is a good strategy to pursue along with the use of the NWI picks. As such it bears explanation as you did back when you first discussed it. A few potential candidates would be good as well. Just to illustrate: I am now over 45% up in KCAP and up almost 60% in WAC. Remember them? there are certainly a few good dividend payers in the energy sector that fill the bill as well.
Fuller
User ID: 0 @ September 9th, 2012 at 15:14 Comment # 142188
@Fuller, player2benamed – Bar bell: MMurphy ran a series of topical discussions called Coffee with Michael that were the precursor to his book or to articles published in other forums. The bar bell stategy Coffee came out here in NWI about 2 years ago and was of great value to me. Here’s a version of the BB strategy coffee that’s on the web…
http://articles.marketwatch.com/2010-08-02/commentary/30687622_1_junk-bond-funds-absolute-risk-barbell
User ID: 0 @ September 9th, 2012 at 18:08 Comment # 142193
@Sheesh, Thanks very much. I’d tried to get into that section of the Board but it’s not operational right now.
MM along with what Fuller is suggesting, could you refresh our thoughts on what we should do defensively regarding NWI stocks. Many pundits are indicating a market top in the next few weeks/months?
User ID: 0 @ September 9th, 2012 at 08:49 Comment # 142171
@Artbill, MM has stated he will provide a “SELL” advisory. My suggestion is to set up some “trailing stops” mentally and watch your NWI stocks individually.
User ID: 0 @ September 9th, 2012 at 09:46 Comment # 142172
@Fuller,
In my humble opinion, many here might benefit by watching & listening to the video here……. (and I should, again, as well ……. & will…)
http://advisorshares.com/fund/hdge
User ID: 0 @ September 9th, 2012 at 10:35 Comment # 142175
@oldster3, Thanks, it looks quite recent .
User ID: 0 @ September 9th, 2012 at 11:10 Comment # 142177
@oldster3,
Ezepace, I’m NOT suggesting to buy HDGE now…… It’s NOT time, IMHO…… while’st we’re now “likely” into a consolidation (few days??) period in the S&P500, I strongly believe it will come out to the upside & into a new continuing rise, roughly up until the election……
——- That’s my take on the markets
User ID: 0 @ September 9th, 2012 at 11:11 Comment # 142178
@oldster3, Thank you very much. I was going to research this and you certainly helped! I like the fact that it is “transparent” i.e. their list is available. I found it here: http://www.marketgrader.com/MGMainWeb/etfgrader/components.jsp?id=HDGE
Of course there are a few well known entities that I would have to disagree with (technically) shorting at this point (JCI being one) but they are the “forensic accountants” and no doubt know why. “Twas me i would not be shorting anything with a dividend over 2% unless the company was in extreme likelihood of skipping. But he did say they “actively manage” that problem, so —-
Again, thanks. I will certainly utilize this in the future. I will add an initial bit under $20, and it looks like that will be soon..
User ID: 0 @ September 9th, 2012 at 21:53 Comment # 142200
@oldster3, I understood not just yet…smiles
Tell me is this an ETF like AGQ in that it moves as a double….
Re: PZG. I finished a preliminary draft of the seekingalpha article and forwarded to William K. for editing. William when you are done with it. Please send it to JO. We should publish the article by Friday. I think its a great article!! I can post it here a couple day before we submit it for publication.
User ID: 0 @ September 9th, 2012 at 21:35 Comment # 142199
@MR. JOSEPH, Send me a copy if you want me to review it as well….Do you have my email J ?
A sincere THANK YOU to Mr J, Eze, Fuller, Oldster, JO, WK, Wendy, and all the rest who continue to share their knowledge on a daily basis, and go the extra mile to publish on SA. MM’s guidance is tremendous, but the discussion and information that each of you share with the rest of the board is invaluable. THANK YOU.
User ID: 0 @ September 9th, 2012 at 11:42 Comment # 142180
@Eric, I second that! This novice investor has gained so much insight thanks to all of you!
Judge Says 10 Rare Gold Coins Worth $80 Million Belong to Uncle Sam
A judge has ruled that ten rare gold coins worth roughly $80 million belong to the U.S. government, not the family that possessed them, according to ABC News.
In 2003 Joan Langbord and two other family members opened a safety deposit box that belonged to Langbord’s father, Philadelphia coin dealer Israel Switt, and found the valuable collection. When they asked the Philadelphia Mint to authenticate the find, the coins were apparently seized without compensation and taken to Fort Knox.
Full story below:
http://abcnews.go.com/US/ten-rare-gold-coins-property-us-treasury-jury/story?id=14124595#.UEzzp1EU-Sq
William K. Did you get the PZG preliminary seekingalpha draft I emailed you?
@Michael Murphy, Thank you.
As a follow up to a prior question. I was asked about a website re chronic fatigue syndrome…..Check out Dr JacobTeitlebaums site end fatigue. He is a wonderful man..and one Ive learned a lot from….I didnt add our own site as I didnt think that was right….
http://www.endfatigue.com/
SHow me….I want to hear how good the steak and ( bear haha_) beer was ….typo left in for a little chuckle. We cant always be serious.
BUt no that is not an OK, to talk of the two TABOO subjects…
To Oldster3, Ezepace, Fuller, Wendy L., MM and any others that want to, please chime in. I understand that it is not yet time to change gears, but being slightly less ignorant this time around I am interested in doing my homework early. I would like to take advantage of short funds as well as precious metals before the next major downturn. Many of the short funds are new and untested in a major crash and many precious metals related stocks got beat up bad during the initial phase of the last major crash. There have been a few specific recommendations made recently related to this topic, but I’m a believer in diversification and planning. This is where topic tracking would come in nice on this site. None of us can predict when, but general assumptions can be made on timing. I am hoping the experts here can suggest diversification in multiple short funds/plays and precious metal plays leading up to the downturn and a transition shortly afterwords. Entering the short funds slightly early is not scary, trying to understand the play on miners and direct precious metals funds is a bit more complicated based on the unexpected swings that I experienced and based on the charts from the last crash. It would be a great thing for all of us to be more knowledgeable and better prepared to profit based on personal risk tolerance in the months ahead with a broader playbook. This would probably make a better forum discussion that we can all easily locate, follow and reference, but not many of us use the forums.
User ID: 0 @ September 10th, 2012 at 04:35 Comment # 142212
@Keith Fox, You seem to intend having bear-market funds in place PRIOR to a downturn. Yet you might end up losing money on those funds for months.
For sure, the bull-market will end SOME day. When? That, we cannot know.
You stated, “Entering the short funds slightly early is not scary….” But in just one day, a X3 bear ETF can lose half its value. And I don’t want those ETF’s in my portfolio during a rising market!
Looks like a disaster in ZLCS this morning. Synavive trials discontinued. MM should we abandon this now or is there something we should wait to see?