Nov
16
Nov
12
Wednesday was a good Day #1 of the new 86-day cycle for the S&P, and a close at a new high tomorrow will lock it in. The S&P moved up to set a new intraday and closing high, but the short-term 150-minute chart was overstretched, as I mentioned yesterday, so we did not get the big launch into a new up cycle. But unless this market is going to fool us all and pull the rug out at the last minute, I think we are seeing a bear trap (or an underinvested trap) playing out.
Even though we have had a 70 point rally from the last low, the daily fractal dimension is still high, meaning there are lots of points left in this trend.
I still think we will hit 1160 pretty quickly, probably by Wednesday, November 25, right before the Thanksgiving holiday. On Friday the 27th, trading ends at 1:00pm ET. These low-volume days give the bad guys an opportunity to start a countertrend, but in this case it will only be the next consolidation before the big run to 1250 – maybe by the end of the year, almost certainly before Day #86 on March 22, 2010.
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