Monthly Archives: November 2005

The technology I’ve been following for the last 20 years is Broadband over Power Lines, or BPL. This simply means sending data over the electrical lines already coming into your house, office or hotel. I spent some time analyzing a private company in 1985 working on this technology, and I can tell you it is very difficult. The electrical system was not designed to send data smoothly, and it is a hodgepodge of old switches, splices, transformers and exposed power lines, all with the background electrical noise of a 60 cycle current that may have spikes, surges and brownouts. But...

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With the rally I’ve predicted now clearly underway, the underinvested hedge funds (many still net short) need to put lots of money to work if they intend to earn their “carry” — 20% of the profits — this year. I expect the S&P 500 to fall to 1227 with only a minimum struggle, but reaching 1280 will probably be tougher. Still, I see nothing yet to change my forecast for 1313 on the S&P by the December 12 Fed meeting. The NASDAQ Composite should have a bigger percentage move up to 2424, as it is not weighed down by a...

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Another month, another quarter-point Fed funds increase. Tuesday’s increase was the 12th consecutive move, and Chairman Al gets two more shots at us, on December 13 and January 31. At 5:00 p.m. EST on January 31, Chairman Al gets off the hiking path, the Greenspan Era comes to an end, and the Bernanke Era begins. Bernanke’s first turn at the wheel doesn’t come until March 28, and by then I expect the economy to be slowing into a recession. Yet he’ll probably feel obligated to show continuity with the Great Greenspan, and push through another quarter-point increase to 4.75%. There’s...

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