Monthly Archives: January 2006

Security in a Down Market

26
Jan 06
In spite of last Friday’s market drop, right now it looks like we’re in a bounce that we should let play out before selling any stocks. I’ll tell you more about our sell strategy below, but first, this week I want to add a couple of stocks to our Security MegaShift — a sector where spending will be heavy in 2006 no matter what the economy or the terrorists do. Of course, if Bin Laden actually carried out any of his latest threats, these stocks would go through the roof even as the rest of the market crashed. They have...

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100%+ Gain in Biocryst; What’s on Tap for the Rest of Our MegaShift Stocks

19
Jan 06
The disappointing results and guidance from Intel and Yahoo after the close on Tuesday, followed by Apple and eBay’s conservative guidance yesterday, tell us two things. First, my forecast that 2006 is going to be a disappointing year is off to a faster start than even I expected. I thought the December quarter would be OK — and it may well turn out that way — with decent guidance for the March period. It’s the “decent guidance” part of that outlook that is threatened, because if companies are seeing weakness already in spite of the positive benefits of Chinese New...

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Update: Bird Flu MegaShift

17
Jan 06
Today, the FDA granted BioCryst (BCRX) Fast Track status for Peramivir to treat the flu, particularly bird flu. This news drove the stock up $3.16 (16.6%) in morning trading, sending it over my $22 target. That’s a 114% gain in only three months! At this point, I would not blame anyone for taking at least their cost off the table. However, I don’t want to put a sell on the stock just yet, but I do want to protect your profits. The right way to do that is by putting on an intraday stop loss at $21.25 and then seeing...

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Macworld Brings Some Important Changes to Our Video iPod MegaShift

12
Jan 06
Macworld opened in San Francisco this week, with some good news and some bad news for our Video iPod MegaShift portfolio holdings. First, the bad news: Steve Jobs did not introduce the next-generation video iPod. He bumped that announcement in favor of a dramatic acceleration in the introduction of Intel-powered Macs. Intel was able to promise enough dual-processor Centrino chips to let Jobs announce an Intel-powered desktop iMac and an all-new MacBook Pro laptop. I now expect that we won’t see the next version of the video iPod until Apple’s trade show in France this summer. The good news is...

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Six Oil-Replacing Technologies for the Hydrogen Economy

05
Jan 06
The year is off to a strong start, and I’m sure some of you are wondering why we are getting ready to sell stocks rather than jump in to ride this rally. After all, surveys show that business spending is good and getting better, just in time to take the baton from the consumer and housing to keep the economy expanding. I recently did a live radio interview, following a bullish Wall Street guru who pointed to the business surveys as evidence for his position. When it was my turn, I wondered aloud why people never ask the question: “In...

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