Monthly Archives: September 2006

Today, the Dow Jones Industrial Average closed less than five points below its January 14, 2000 record of 11,722.98. This marked the fourth straight day that the Dow closed up. As I said last week, there have been very few negative earnings preannouncements, although we won’t hear from the software companies until next week. Worries about the hurricane season are fading, and even housing seems stronger than expected. The 10-year bond market has rallied enough to bring mortgage rates down recently. And the 10-year yield is well below the short-term yield, signaling a recession ahead. So all this is pretty...

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This market has been showing remarkable resiliency during what is typically a seasonally weak period. The last half of September and the first half of October are normally especially bad. But maybe this year everyone knows it and has discounted it for the time being. I find that hard to believe, though, because the Fear & Greed Index — the VIX — is still bumping along at multiyear lows. This shows that investors are complacent and not worried about volatility. What has investors in such a contented state? It could be the drop in oil prices, the benign hurricane season,...

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After the Internet stock bubble burst in 2000, a lot of fuddy-duddies gleefully announced that the New Economy was an illusion, a goofy idea promulgated by Michael Murphy, George Gilder, Esther Dyson and a few others that they thought would never be heard from again. But within a few months, companies were starting up again to build what has become known as the Web 2.0 economy. A few years later, Google, Skype, MySpace and YouTube put the fuddy-duddy case in shambles. Through this whole period, Internet usage skyrocketed, on-line commerce soared, consumers went digital, the VVD revolution (voice, video and...

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On Tuesday, Apple Computer sent out invitations to an event next Tuesday, September 12, in San Francisco. The headline on the invitation said: “It’s Showtime!” I think this will be the long-awaited introduction of the second-generation video iPod. I expect two models — one with a bigger LCD screen and a second, high-end version with a retinal display. Steve Jobs and Apple need a “wow” factor to revitalize interest in the iPod line in advance of Microsoft’s introduction of their Zume MP-3 player. The retinal display — projecting wide-screen, high-definition feature films right into your eyes — would be a...

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