Monthly Archives: November 2007

The Annual Guide to a Killer Digital Holiday Season

Nov 07

Wow… what a week for the market. In last week’s Radar Report I said: “I did not re-recommend buying puts because there is a very good chance that this decline will stop at the major target at 1410 (the August 16 close) on the S&P 500, perhaps as soon as tomorrow. The day after Thanksgiving used to be a favorite to turn the market around, but the practice of holding half-day sessions has made it irrelevant. There is a possibility that the market will bottom out on Friday or Monday and start a move back up. “If this happens at...

Burst.com Settles With Apple

Nov 07

In one of the strangest press releases of all time — it was put out well after the close on Wednesday, when they knew everyone had left their desks for Thanksgiving — Burst.com (BRST) announced that they had settled their lawsuit with Apple for $10 million, that they would net $4.6 million after legal fees and expenses, and that they would make no further comment. On the face of it, it was a devastating conclusion to what should have been a $100+ million settlement, and Wall Street cut the stock in half during the holiday-shortened Friday session. But over the...

Thankful for Great Earnings

Nov 07

Your Radar Report is here early this week due to the holiday — Happy Thanksgiving! I’m going to wrap up the September quarter earnings reports this week, where we can be thankful that most of our stocks hit or beat their numbers and reported that business looks good through the end of the year. I’ll also talk about the critical condition of the stock market, which has not been able to rally up decisively. We can be thankful for the bull market year to date, and while it isn’t clear yet that the usual holiday present of a nice yearend...

A Decisive Point for the Market

Nov 07

After I sent the Flash Alert on Tuesday morning telling you to sell the S&P puts right away, the market used 1440 as a slingshot level to head back up to the top of the current range at 1490. While many market commentators called that a remarkable turnaround and hoped it marked the beginning of the next leg up, I saw it as simply a quick consolidation of the prior down move. And I think yesterday and today’s action confirms that view. Until the S&P 500 decisively breaks over 1490 or breaks under 1440, we simply don’t know which way...

Sell Your Puts; Bounce Coming

Nov 07

The S&P 500 made it all the way down to the 1440 level by Monday’s close, including another end-of-day 20-point waterfall downturn, just like Friday. As you probably recall, 1440 was a very important level on the way up, and it is especially important on the monthly chart. If the S&P breaks 1440, the next stop down on the monthly chart is 1326. But when I recommended the put protection using S&P Depository Receipts (SPY) in last week’s Flash Alert, my real worry was that we would see 1326 in a matter of days. Although we’ve had quite a decline,...

The Market’s Complicated Situation

Nov 07

I don’t believe in making broad market predictions. I just watch what the market is trying to tell me on an hourly, daily, weekly and monthly basis, and then I identify the critical energy levels that should provide support and resistance. When the market fails to hold at a support level, the next lowest down level becomes the new one to watch. When it breaks above a resistance level, the next highest one becomes the next target. So, it was very unusual for me to send you Tuesday’s Flash Alert advising the purchase of insurance puts, because the S&P 500...

Buy Protective Puts

Nov 07

For the short-term, I do not like what I am seeing in the market’s action. And that’s why I’m sending you this Flash Alert today. It is possible that the S&P 500 is about to go all the way down to test the weekly breakout level at 1326, about a 175-point drop from current levels. It could happen over just a few trading days, in which case the media would call it a Crash. Certainly, a 10% to 12% drop in a couple of days would get everyone’s attention. If this happens, I expect the test to be successful, the...

The Fed & The Economy

Nov 07

On Tuesday, the Fed futures market was giving a 98% probability of a quarter-point rate cut, and a 2% chance of a half-point cut. Since I said in last Thursday’s Radar Report that I was pretty sure that the Fed would cut 50 basis points, I was wondering how the market could square Bernanke’s life-long advocacy of quick, decisive action with an outlook for only a 25-basis-point cut. It was especially intriguing because the housing news continues to be so awful. A large number of middle- and lower-middle class Americans are losing their homes to foreclosure. The Fed can accept...

Monthly Archives: November 2007

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