Monthly Archives: February 2009

Radar Report – 2/26/09

26
Feb 09
Dear New World Investor: In last week’s issue, I wrote: “Now, the most likely course is an intraday low sometime between today and next Tuesday, followed by a powerful, multi-week rally ending in April or May.” Last Friday saw another test down that stopped at 754 on the S&P, and then Monday finally saw the undercut of 750, as the S&P closed at 743, virtually on its intraday low. But it was straight up from there on Tuesday, with a test back down yesterday to 753. If we’d seen another big up day yesterday after President Obama’s speech, it would...

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Flash Alert – 2.24.09

24
Feb 09
The S&P 500 Index (SPX) has reached a pivotal moment, and what happens over the next few weeks could reverberate for months — and even years — to come. As the chart below shows, the S&P has formed a double bottom at the mid-November...

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Radar Report – 2.19.09

19
Feb 09
Dear New World Investor: The last few days have been quite remarkable, and what happens over the next three or four days probably will make or break the year. On Tuesday, the Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 31 cents above its November 20 closing low of 7552.29, thus technically missing a Dow Theory bear market primary trend reconfirmation. Technicians all over the country breathed a sigh of relief, but I had to laugh. At the current level of the DJIA divisor, an additional downtick of less than nine cents in each of the 30 stocks would have produced a closing...

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Radar Report – 2.12.09

12
Feb 09
Dear New World Investor: What do the big stock market drops in 1907, 1929, 1974 and 1987 have in common? They all started in September or October, bottomed and then recovered with a strong rally into the following March. Most of the gains came in the last four or five weeks of the rally. These all were big rallies of at least 20%, and usually a lot more. I think we are about to add 2008 to that list of stock market drops. We have bottomed and bounced off the 820 level on the S&P 500 11 times since the...

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Dendreon Presentation Today

10
Feb 09
Some of you were worried about articles on the web that allege an April 2009 termination of Provenge IMPACT Phase III test. They said that at 304 deaths (just triggered), the FDA automatically ends the test. The implication these articles tried to make was that the 22% target for reductions in deaths was not met. That implication is false. We knew the trial of 512 men would end when 304 of them died. That was agreed to with the FDA. The surprise was that this happened in time for an April analysis instead of a second half analysis. But this...

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ViroPharma: Maribavir Fails Phase III

10
Feb 09
Maribavir, which VPHM in-licensed from GlaxoSmithKline six years ago, flat-out failed its Phase III trial in CMV infections in stem-cell transplant patients. But Vancocin still is more than a year away from generic competition, maybe two years, and Cinryze is a certain hit, with the sales acceleration starting right now. The near-term value drivers in VPHM always have...

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Here’s a simple explanation of what the Fed has done

09
Feb 09
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Rally – Finally?

07
Feb 09
Friday’s strong push up through the S&P 500 resistance range at 850 to 860 was impressive. It could be another fake-out,...

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