Monthly Archives: April 2009

Radar Report – 4.30.09

30
Apr 09
Dear New World Investor: With Dendreon (DNDN) back to what passes for normal at that company, namely lots of noise and heat on the message boards with very little light, we can sit back and watch the analyst upgrades and target price increases work their way through the institutional money managers into the stock price. DNDN could be the poster child for the ancient Chinese curse: “May you live in interesting times.” In the rest of the world, the advance GDP report for the March quarter, announced yesterday before the open, was so bad that later in the day Chairman...

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Flash Alert – 4.29.09 – Dendreon Conference Call

29
Apr 09
There was not a lot of additional information on the conference call that was not in the press release. Management mentioned that the survival data was consistent in all three Phase III trials. Median survival was 4.5 months in the D9901 study, 3.2 months in D9902A and 4.1 months in this study. Anything over 4 months is very good. The existing therapy, Taxotere, was approved based on a median survival of 2.8 months and, of course, Provenge is safer with almost no meaningful side effects. Taxotere is administered over six months, with each course of therapy flattening the patient for...

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Flash Alert – 4.28.09 – Dendreon Results, Stock

28
Apr 09
Dendreon (DNDN) suddenly plunged at 1:27 PM EDT and was closed for trading ahead of the press release on the presentation today at the American Urological Association. At the time of the halt, the stock was down $9.74 at $11.81, after touching $25.00. Although Nasdaq has decided to not break the trades, it was obvious that one or a few sellers “ran the stops” to sell all their shares. I’m sure the SEC will examine the trading, including the poster on the Yahoo Message Boards who said there would be a bear raid and got it right almost to the...

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Flash Alert – 4.27.09 – Trading Opportunity In BCRX

27
Apr 09
Flash Alert Flu Stocks Up Sharply – Trading Opportunity Market Rally Appears Imminent The mistakenly-named swine flu outbreak in Mexico that has spread to the U.S., Canada, Australia and other countries has the stock market down this morning, while shares of companies involved in flu treatments or potential vaccines are soaring. Crucell (CRXL) is up almost 9% to over $20 at this writing, while BioCryst (BCRX) is up 90%. I still think CRXL is worth $35 a share in a buyout, and this news makes it a little more likely that we will see a bid this...

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Radar Report – 4.23.09

23
Apr 09
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Dendreon: A $360 Stock? Or Is That Too Low?

22
Apr 09
Since Dendreon’s (DNDN) conference call on April 13 to announce that the Provenge Phase III IMPACT clinical trial easily met its primary endpoint of a 22% reduction in deaths versus the placebo group, there have been numerous posts, articles and message board flames on both sides about what happens next. Not one of the seven analysts who published a rating on Dendreon’s stock recommended buying it ahead of the release of the positive results, and not one has raised their rating to buy since the conference call. That’s remarkable, not just because this is the first cancer vaccine that will...

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Radar Report – 4.16.09

16
Apr 09
Dear New World Investor: Last week I wrote that: “One fundamental that could kickstart a big rally is March quarter earnings that are no worse than the dismal expectations already baked in to stock prices. Although Alcoa and a few others have already reported March quarter results, the crucial tech sector kicks off next week with Intel (INTC). Their management has done a responsible job of keeping expectations low, and Wall Street is looking for only $6.96 billion in sales and two cents a share, with some looking for breakeven or a penny loss. For the June quarter, the consensus...

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Flash Alert – 4.15.09 – Dendreon Wins!

15
Apr 09
Don’t Sell Dendreon Yet! Dendreon (DNDN) yesterday held a conference call to report that Provenge met the goal of reducing mortality in men with advanced prostate cancer by 22%. This was a big win for the company, and I am going to quote several statement that show how wrong the bears were on this drug. But the company did not report the actual top-line data for Provenge, and here is why you should NOT sell Dendreon...

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Radar Report – 4.9.09

09
Apr 09
Dear New World Investor: It will come as no surprise to you that all the action of the last week until 2:30 PM EDT today was meaningless in itself – just more consolidation in the 800 to 850 range. But the longer a consolidation continues, the more energy builds up for the next move, up or down. At this point, the daily and shorter-term charts are fully consolidated and ready to move, and that move probably started today at 2:30 PM when the S&P 500 broke out over 850. Unless we see a quick retracement that indicates a failure at...

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Flash Alert – 4.6.09 – What’s Up With Dendreon?

06
Apr 09
What’s Up With Dendreon? Dendreon (DNDN) jumped Friday and this morning after the American Urological Association granted a last-minute request by the company for a time slot to make a presentation on Provenge on Tuesday, April 28 ,at the Association’s annual meeting in Chicago. I confirmed this morning that Doctor Paul Schellhammer, Program Director of the Virginia Prostate Center and Professor of Urology at Eastern Virginia Medical School, will speak during the Late-Breaking Science Forum, along with eight other presentations from1:00 PM to2:30 PM. His presentation title is “Results of the Provenge Trial.” Squeezing a presentation in at the last...

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