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Monthly Archives: July 2009
Radar Report – 7.30.09
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Jul 09
Dear New World Investor: This has been the strongest upswing in equity markets since 1938. On a fractal basis, this is one of the most overstretched markets I have ever seen – and one of the most confusing. I thought the upmove was done last Friday, and we would go into an 11-trading-day consolidation until August 10. We may even be in that, because a “running consolidation” can simply go sideways right around a new high. But since the prior run up was so fast and furious, I thought it more likely that we would see a quick drop back...
Jul 09
Letters to SEC and Congress on Dendreon
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Jul 09
July 14, 2009 Mary Schapiro, Chairman Securities & Exchange Commission Dear Chairman Schapiro: Today you said you are taking steps that will reinforce your focus on investor protection and market integrity. If you do not investigate, prosecute and imprison the conspirators behind the April 28th bear raid on Dendreon, no one is going to believe you. I sent the letter below to your Enforcement Division many weeks ago. A complete description of how the bear raid was pulled off has appeared on the Internet. One of the original perpetrators posted in advance that the raid was coming. This is a...
Jul 09
Radar Report – 7.23.09
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Jul 09
Dear New World Investor: The Nasdaq was up today for the twelfth day in a row, the best consecutive days run since 1996. In the July 9 Radar Report I said: “…starting around midday on Friday or by Monday a heck of a two-month rally should begin.” The rally began Monday morning, July 13. The fractal analysis techniques I use work because they are based on sound statistics. Stock prices do not follow a normal bell-shaped distribution, they have “fat tails” – an excess of unusually positive and unusually negative events. Normal statistical methods like least-squares regression do not work...
Jul 09
Radar Report – 7.16.09
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Jul 09
Dear New World Investor: Associated Press – Tuesday, July 14, 2009 – The stock market has been struggling to find direction over the past month, having largely given up on a massive spring rally as troubling signs began to emerge on the economy including rising unemployment and waning consumer confidence, undermining a sense of optimism that drove stocks sharply higher since March. What does “largely given up” mean? It means the S&P 500 from its closing low of 676.53 on March 9 was up 39.9% at its 946.21 close on June 12, but as of last Tuesday morning when this...
Jul 09
Radar Report – 7.9.09
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Jul 09
Dear New World Investor: The Flash Alert I sent on Tuesday still seems to be on target. Markets fell more than 2% Tuesday on light volume, several indices fell below their 200-day moving averages and lots of stops on technology stocks were triggered. After a feint below 880 on Wednesday to a two-month low, the S&P 500 came back to that powerful attractor/repeller area. Alcoa’s not-as-bad-as-expected June quarter report after the close yesterday kicked off a little rally today, that could as easily as not be given back tomorrow. But if the recent cycles continue to play out, this consolidation...
Jul 09
