Dear New World Investor:

There are bull markets, bear markets, and now an Energizer Bunny market. The S&P 500 just kept pressing higher bit-by-bit, but I really though we needed at least a little breather. After yesterday’s Fed decision, there was a brief spike up to 1080, a new recovery high, that used up all the short-term energy. The S&P fell back to 1060 at the close, and I was glad to see it dip down to 1045 intraday today , which was

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What Katrina Was to FEMA, Swine Flu Deaths Are to FDA – Buy BioCryst

In contrast to their good job shepherding swine flu vaccines through the approval process, the FDA has failed for months to provide Intensive Care Unit doctors with an an effective intravenous antiviral to treat the sickest victims of H1N1. FDA began a Pre-Emergency Use Authorization process for BioCryst’s peramivir almost six months ago. The development of peramivir has been sponsored by HHS, and it has completed Phase I and II trials in the U.S. and Phase I, II and III trials in Japan. It is known to be safe and effective, yet Americans are dying daily in the ICU without timely access to the drug.

Why is an intravenous antiviral the FDA knows to be safe and effective languishing in their bureaucratic process while Intensive Care Unit doctors plead for it to be released before more victims die? The FDA approached BioCryst Pharmaceuticals of Birmingham, AL almost six months ago to begin the Pre-Emergency Authorization Use process for peramivir. The Phase I and II U.S. trials were sponsored by the Department of Health & Human Services under a $102.4 million contract. FDA had already reviewed Phase I safety data and approved the drug for Phase II studies. They then reviewed the Phase II safety and efficacy data and approved the drug for Phase III studies that may not be completed until 2011. In June, they gave the drug Emergency IND status, so a single doctor with an identified patient can fill out forms and ask the FDA to permit BioCryst to ship a dose of the drug. This shows again that the FDA knows the drug is safe and effective.

The Emergency Use Authorization (EUA) process is designed to allow drugs in development to be sold or stockpiled to treat an imminent health threat, especially when no other effective treatment is available. There is no intravenous antiviral for the H1N1 flu approved anywhere in the world, including the U.S. Peramivir is the closest to achieving approval, in both Japan and Korea. I expected the FDA’s EUA approval process to take no more than 60 days. It has now taken six months, with no end in sight, and many critically ill U.S. swine flu victims have died unnecessarily as a direct result of the delay.

Most people who contract the swine flu simply suffer through the typical symptoms of flu. But 10% to 20% of the victims, who are often otherwise-healthy children, young adults or pregnant women become sick enough to be hospitalized. Most of those can be treated with Tamiflu or Relenza, which are already in national stockpiles around the world. But a significant portion – as high as 15 per cent, according to the World Health Organization – end up in ICUs for many days or even weeks, hovering between life and death.

Dr. Paul Hebert, editor of the Canadian Medical Association Journal and an intensive care physician in Ottawa who has treated many of these sickest patients, said: “I’ve never seen this. As an ICU doctor, it’s very, very, very rare I can’t deliver enough oxygen to someone to keep him alive. They die of other things, right? They die because their organs fail. In this case, we can barely oxygenate them.”

Peramivir is a very effective intravenous antiviral that can deliver a large load of drug very quickly, as opposed to the five-day treatment regimen with Tamiflu. Because the H1N1 virus often goes deep into the lungs and replicates much faster than the seasonal flu, many critically ill patients cannot use inhaled Relenza.

If an ICU patient does not respond to or cannot take Tamiflu or Relenza, the ICU doctors have nowhere else to turn. Although peramivir is available on a case-by-case basis under the awkward, slow Emergency IND process, in most cases the drug cannot be transported to doctors in time to save a patient’s life.

In one recent case, desperate ICU doctors in Great Britain broke open a Relenza inhaler and mixed the contents into an IV bag, saving the life of a 22-year old woman. ICU doctors need an intravenous antiviral immediately, and peramivir is the only one that has completed Phase III clinical trials. Shionogi announced the positive results of their Phase III trials this summer, again showing that intravenous peramivir is a safe and effective drug.

As a result of the FDA’s intolerable delay in issuing the EUA and an order to stockpile the drug, hundreds of Americans have died unnecessarily, including 144 children in the flu season so far. Yet the logic for approval is simple:

1. Is the drug safe and effective? Yes, as shown by the FDA’s review of Phase I and Phase II results, the Japanese Ministry of Health review of Phase I and Phase II results, Shionogi’s Phase III results reported recently at the ICAAC Conference in San Francisco, and the FDA’s own granting of the Emergency IND status.

2. Is there a need for the drug? Yes, there is no other intravenous antiviral available for ICU doctors to use when Tamiflu and/or Relenza have failed or cannot be given to the patient.

3. Is the Emergency IND process sufficient to fill the need in ICUs? No, the cumbersome, slow process has resulted in less than 10 patients having access to peramivir since June, while hundreds have died.

I am waiting for a crusading journalist, columnist or politician to hold the FDA’s feet to the fire on this issue, and demand the Emergency Use Authorization and a substantial stockpiling order immediately. BioCryst has already signed sales reps in Mexico, Brazil, Israel and China, and I expect India and Europe to be next. These countries can place orders for peramivir with less bureaucracy than the FDA, and the drug might be saving lives overseas while Americans are still dying without it. To quote one well-known biotech columnist: “Murphy…seems to be the only person I hear slamming the FDA about its response to the flu, blaming regulators for dying kids. As if Margaret Hamburg has blood on her hands.”

My sentiments exactly.

I expect BCRX to book a large order for the U.S. stockpile, equally large orders from the BRIC countries, Mexico, Israel, Europe and the World Health Organization, and ongoing orders for many years to replenish the peramivir that is used in ICUs or emergency rooms. Thus, my disclosure.

Disclosure: Long BCRX, obviously

You can go to http://seekingalpha.com/instablog/128006-michael-murphy/28294-what-katrina-was-to-fema-swine-flu-deaths-are-to-fda-buy-biocryst to see the comments on this article.  I expect the full complement of BioCryst bashers.

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BLOSSOM Trial Results Hit All Targets For Arena

Lorcaserin Will Be Approved By October 2010

Arena Pharmaceuticals (ARNA) issued their press release on the BLOSSOM Phase III clinical trial results early this morning, and the results were good. Basically BLOSSOM essentially matched BLOOM in every respect, including the all-important heart valve safety data. We’ll get more info from the company’s presentation at the Obesity Society meeting in Washington, DC from October 24 to 28. Arena plans to file their New Drug application in December, so the PDUFA date for an FDA decision should be in October 2010, ten months after the filing.. There probably will be

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This mornings, BioCryst (BCRX) announced that it has signed binding letters of intent with three partners to represent peramivir for flu stockpiling programs in Mexico, Brazil, China and Israel.  Mexico is where it all started, and the company says Mexico and Brazil together represent 75% of the Latin American market.  China is

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BioCryst (BCRX) wowed the crowd at the ICAAC conference this weekend, and may be on the verge of finally getting the Emergency Use Authorization this week.  My plan was to take $2,000 of your Dendreon (DNDN) profits and buy BioCryst, wait for the EUA and then sell around $22 and roll the profits into Arena Pharmaceuticals (ARNA).  But with the Arena BLOSSOM Phase III study results due in the next two weeks, it is getting risky to wait.

Here is what to do.  For every $2,000 you put into BCRX, buy $2,000 of ARNA.  Then, whichever one goes up first, roll the profits into the other one.  When you are dealing with sequential trades, your profits are multiplying and it doesn’t matter in what order they come, you still get to the same end result.

ARNA is back under my $5 buy limit today, so this is a timely entry point.  Although there have been a lot of put buyers, the naked short sellers are nowhere in sight.  There have been a couple of mildly negative articles on Arena lately, but nothing like the attacks after the BLOOM Phase III results in the spring.

These Phase III trial results are highly likely to be good, but just in case Arena goes first and the results are not statistically significant, you’ll only lose your  $2,000.

Most likely, the FDA will come through this week, BCRX will rally sharply on short covering, momentum buying and some new institutional holders, and we will have time to sell BCRX and buy ARNA before they announce.  But, just in case, if you buy ARNA today, you’ll be covered and you can withdraw the second $2,000 after one or the other gets their good news.

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The bear raid on BioCryst (BCRX) ran

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Dear New World Investor:

Fractal analysis showed

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BioCryst (BCRX) has filed for two Phase III clinical trials for peramivir,

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