The march towards a double top near 1850 on the S&P 500 continues, and may have achieved its objective on Friday at 1838: (Thursday’s chart) I expect the advance to stall out now, and retreat to the 38.2% level that is now at 1801. There is a small chance the market topped on Friday, and we’ll know that if 1801 is broken decisively. It’s far more likely that the test of 1801 will be successful, and then we’ll get the final move up towards 1850 around the end of February. The gold train has left the station, with the current...

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The S&P 500 continues to churn near its highs in the 1690-1700 range. Although the chracter of the market changed dramatically after the July 19 top date, marking an end to the 2013 upturn, the big downturn has not yet shown itself. We bonked against the highs for almost a month after July 19, and the dowturn to the 1630 area was quickly reversed. I know this is furstrating behavior, but the big drop usually comes out of nowhere after a period of churning. There are plenty of news events coming that could spark the drop – the Fed, Syria,...

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Well, I certainly didn’t expect that from the gold market. Tuesday looked like the clear beginning of a push up to $1,440, but almost all of that advance was given back on Wednesday. The price of gold is being whipped around by the U.S. potential action in Syria. Unless gold pretty quickly whipsaws again to the upside, it is possible we’ll first test the lower boundary of the expected trading range at $1,344. I still think $1,444 is in the cards, but I doubt we can get there by September 10. It could take to the end of September to...

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The S&P 500 has held up well since the July 19 energy peak, and really just consolidated into the lesser peak on August 8. But the next peak is not until early November, and in the meantime there is a very negative trough coming up on September 8 to 10. The period leading into this trough starts on Monday, and a break in the S&P below 1680 and then 1670 will be the sign that a big drop has started. We saw the expected pause in the precious metals rally on Friday. If Thursday’s big move up was a fake,...

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