Dear New World Investor:

Front Matters: In 2005, InvestorPlace asked me to expand Technology Investing to the more general New World Investor, so over the years I added coverage of precious metals, energy, commodities, foreign stocks, cannabis, and more. After last year’s +52.9% overall returns, I realized two things: (1) The life of New World Investor is coming to a natural end at a good time; and, (2) I’d like to restart a more focused California Technology Stock Letter for the AI/nuclear age, covering only tech and a little biotech.

I started CTSL in 1982 to bring the institutional-quality technology stock research I was doing for mutual fund management companies to as many individual investors as possible. I want to continue the CTSL legacy, but I have never been a good marketer of newsletters. So I have a question for you: Do you know anyone experienced who could market CTSL and would like to partner with me? You, a friend, a family member, or a colleague? If so, please ask them to email newworldinvestor@gmail.com with the subject line “Marketing.”

We have a couple of new inflation numbers that really don’t change anything. Both the headline and core Personal Consumption Expenditures Indices (PCE) for November were up 2.8% year-over-year a tenth faster than October’s 2.7%. On a month-over-month basis, both were up 0.2%, a compounded annual rate of 2.43%. That’s above the Fed’s 2.0% target, but not by much.

The core December Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose at the slowest annual rate since March 2021 – 2.6% year-over-year and 0.2% month-over-month. Headline consumer prices rose 0.3% from November and 2.7% from last year. Because the December jobs report showed the unemployment rate falling from a four-year high, the CME FedWatch shows 95% do not expect a quarter-point cut at next week’s Fed meeting. While that’s probably directionally right – they won’t cut – I’d put the odds more at 55-45 than 95-5.

Market Outlook

The S&P 500 lost 0.1% over the last two weeks, although it did set new all-time highs on January 12 at 6,986.33 intraday and 6,977.27 closing. The Nasdaq Composite lost 0.2%, also after setting new highs. The SPDR S&P Biotech Exchange-Traded Fund (XBI) climbed 6.4% as the big JPMorgan Healthcare Conference kept the biotech bull market rolling. The small-cap Russell 2000 gained 4.4% and is up 9.5% in 2026.

IMPORTANT NOTE: The MoneyShow Top Picks report is out and it’s FREE – CLICK HERE. My large company pick is Onsemi and my small company pick is QuickLogic.

Top 5

Changes this week: None

Near-Term – chronological order
AKBA Akebia Therapeutics – Vafseo launch
EQT EQT – natural gas price rebound
USL United States 12 Month Oil Fund, LP – crude should rise quickly

Long-Term – alphabetical order
ABCL AbCelllera – Will become a huge pharma royalty company
UUUU Energy Focus – Domestic uranium supplier
EQT EQT – largest US natural gas company
IBIT iShares Bitcoin Trust – Bitcoin is headed for $150,000
META Meta – a (the?) leader in the metaverse
PLTR Palantir – a (the?) leader in AI applications software
SCYX ScyNexis –First new antifungal in 20 years

Economy

The Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow model estimate of December quarter real GDP has soared to +5.4% based on stronger personal consumption expenditures growth and private domestic investment growth. With the economy doing this well even after absorbing the impact of tariffs, the Fed is in no hurry to cut further.

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Coming Events
All times below are ET, and most presentations and slides are archived on the companies’ websites so you can listen to them.

Sunday, January 25
DC – Dakota Gold – 5:20pm – Vancouver Resource Investment Conference

Tuesday, January 27
CDE – Coeur Mining – 11:00am – Special Meeting of Shareholders (Virtual) to approve New Gold acquisition. Vote YES. https://www.virtualshareholdermeeting.com/CDE2026SM
Short Interest – After the close

Wednesday, January 28
RGLD – Royal Gold – 8:30am – TD Cowen Global Mining Conference
Fed Meeting – 2:00pm press release; 2:30pm press conference
META – Meta Platforms – 4:30pm – Earnings conference call

Thursday, January 29
CDE – Coeur Mining – 2:20pm – TD Cowen Global Mining Conference
AAPL – Apple – 5:00pm – Earnings conference call

Monday, February 2
ON – Onsemi – 5:00pm – Earnings conference call

Tuesday, February 3
The Day The Music Died

PYPL – PayPal – 8:00am – Earnings conference call

Wednesday, February 4
RGLD – Royal Gold – 2:00pm – Renmark Financial Communications Virtual Non-Deal Roadshow Series
SNAP – Snap – 5:00pm – Earnings conference call

Thursday, February 5
Next New World Investor

Big Tech: The Biotech & Digital Dominators MegaShift
There are at least four ways to make money in the stocks of these large, growing, dominant companies. You can:
* * Buy a stock and hold it
* * Buy a stock and write a call option against it
* * With a Level IV options account, write an out-of-the-money put option
* * With a Level IV options account, write an out-of-the-money put option and use part of the premium to buy an out-of-the-money call option

Apple (AAPL – $248.35) Services had a great 2025. The App Store had over 850 million average weekly users. Apple Pay generated more than $100 billion in incremental merchant sales globally, and purchases made through Apple Pay significantly outpaced the overall growth in consumer spending levels during the peak holiday shopping period in November and December. Apple TV eclipsed all prior viewership records in December 2025, while Apple Music reached all-time highs in both listenership and new subscribers.

2026 should bring the foldable iPhone introduction in September, priced around $2,000. Wall Street is excited about it, but I’m not. They expect a fast ramp of the foldable iPhone with around eight million units in 2026, growing to 20 million units in 2027. I don’t think even Apple fanboys are ready for a $2,000 phone. For now, AAPL is still a Buy under $205.

Gilead Sciences (GILD – $131.12) presented at the big JPMorgan Healthcare Conference, but JPM is blocking us from seeing the presentations – putting Gilead in violation of SEC Rule FD. Gilead did post the slides HERE. They focused on three key factors:

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Since 2020, the company has returned 56% of free cash flow to shareholders and will continue to target over 50%. GILD is a Long-Term Buy under $115 for a first target of $150.

Meta Platforms (META – $647.63) and EssilorLuxottica are considering doubling the production capacity of their Ray-Ban artificial intelligence-powered smart glasses to 20 million units annually by the end of this year, according to Bloomberg ‌News. The potential increase is driven by strong demand, and could even go up to 30 million units if market conditions warrant. Meta wants to upend the smartphone era by letting wearers take photos and videos through tiny cameras in the lenses, stream content to Meta apps, and talk to an AI assistant. META is a Buy under $705 for a long-term hold.

Nvidia (NVDA – $185.84) also presented at JPMorgan, and that presentation also is blocked. Their slides are HERE. They pointed out that the $4.9 trillion healthcare industry is deploying AI three times as fast as the rest of the US economy. Nvidia is providing software and models for both research and administration.

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In just seven months, annualized revenue at 32 AI-native companies selling AI models or apps has doubled, from $15 billion to more than $30 billion.

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NVDA is a Hold for a $180 first target.

Palantir (PLTR – $165.90) and HD Hyundai expanded their strategic alliance group-wide. Foundry and AIP are now being rolled out across the entire HD Hyundai ecosystem – from shipbuilding and heavy equipment to energy, robotics, electric systems, and marine services. Institutional ownership has increased to over 51%.

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PLTR is a Buy under $160 for a $200 first target.

PayPal Holdings (PYPL – $57.18) had a busy two weeks. They partnered with Microsoft to support the launch of Copilot Checkout in Copilot, enabling shoppers to discover, decide, and pay—without ever leaving the Copilot experience. PayPal will power surfacing merchant inventory, branded checkout, guest checkout, and credit card payments, starting with Copilot.com.

They also announced support of Google’s Universal Commerce Protocol (UCP), a new open standard designed to enable secure, interoperable commerce experiences across AI-powered shopping environments. As part of this support, PayPal will soon be available as a payment option within a new checkout experience on Google powered by UCP.

As a timely benefit, the company announced a new partnership with april that allows US PayPal Debit MasterCard customers to file their 2025 federal and state tax returns for free, using april’s DIY tax filing service. It saves approximately $1,603 in typical filing service costs.

Finally, they acquired Cymbio, a multi-channel orchestration platform that helps brands sell across agentic surfaces, including Microsoft Copilot, Perplexity, and other e-commerce channels. PayPal previously partnered with Cymbio as part of its agentic commerce services, a suite of solutions that allows merchants to attract customers and drive sales in the new era of AI-powered commerce. PYPL is a Buy under $75 for a double in three years.

Snap (SNAP – $7.66) launched Smart Campaign Solutions in 2025. It is a suite of solutions that deliver AI-powered performance and ease-of-use enhancements. It includes Smart Budgets, saving time and increasing performance for advertisers of all sizes. They’ve also added Smart Targeting, using machine learning to identify and target additional high-value users based on targeting inputs. In the September quarter, this delivered an average 8.8% increase in conversions for adopted ad sets.

Next up is Smart Ads, a powerful creative optimization feature that’s in early testing, which will find the right combination of image, video, and text to drive performance. The company plans to invest heavily in this area in 2026, moving in the direction of a fully automated campaign creation suite. Internally, they are using the advancements in AI to make fast progress in this area. SNAP is a Buy under $11 for a $17+ target.

Small Tech

Enovix (ENVX – $7.70) announced a leadership transition in its operations organization, including the planned retirement of Chief Operating Officer Ajay Marathe, as the company prepares to commence mass production for smartphone, smart eyewear, and defense applications. Global manufacturing operations will be led by Senior Vice President Kihong Park, who has overseen Enovix’s Korea manufacturing operations since 2023. He has more than two decades of global battery manufacturing, quality, and operations leadership, with deep experience scaling lithium-ion battery production across Asia, Europe, and North America.

Polaris Battery Labs, a globally recognized independent battery testing firm, conducted a rigorous side-by-side evaluation of the Enovix AI-1 smartphone battery alongside a leading commercially available smartphone battery. The Enovix AI-1 achieved 935 watt-hours per liter (Wh/L), outperforming the leading smartphone battery they tested by 12%. Wh/L is a measure of energy density in smartphones that indicates how much energy a battery can store in a given volume. Traditional lithium-ion batteries typically have around 600 Wh/L. CEO Raj Talluri said: “That level of advancement is unprecedented in the smartphone category, and AI-1 is just the beginning. We expect additional significant gains with AI-2 and AI-3 over the course of this decade, well beyond the industry’s historical rate of advancement.”

ENVX is a Buy up to $20 for a 4-year hold to $100+ as their BrakeFlow lithium-ion battery takes market share.
Primary Risk: A new competitor invents a better battery.

PagerDuty (PD – $11.21) presented at the Needham Growth Conference (VIDEO HERE and SLIDES HERE). CFO Harold Wilson gave the usual corporate pitch, emphasizing how they are integrating AI into their existing products.

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They have only 1% penetration of a $50 billion market opportunity:

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Forrester has calculated a 249% return on investment over three years in PagerDuty’s software with a payback period of less than 12 months. PD is a Buy up to $30 for a 2- to 5-year hold as their digital operations management Software-As-A-Service gains market share.
Primary Risk: Digital operations management is a competitive area.

QuickLogic (QUIK – $8.83) has received early orders for its Strategic Radiation Hardened FPGA Development Kit, enabling defense and space teams to begin development with SRH FPGA test silicon built on GlobalFoundries’ proven 12 nanometer process. This milestone supports mission-critical programs requiring reliability, longevity, and design assurance.

Epson engineers achieved a 50% power efficiency improvement by replacing software with QuickLogic eFPGA Hard IP while preserving flexibility for evolving workloads and tight schedules. Hardware-accelerated logic enables longer battery life and higher performance in portable and embedded designs. QUIK is a Buy up to $10 for my $40 target as their earnings repeatedly surprise Wall Street.
Primary Risk: Customers’ product introductions and associated royalties are unpredictable.

ARK Venture Fund (ARKVX – $47.21) will jump when SpaceX goes public. This morning, the Financial Times reported that SpaceX is lining up investment bankers at four Wall Street firms – Bank of America, Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan Chase, and Morgan Stanley – for a potential initial public offering. ARKVX is a Buy for the SpaceX IPO.
Primary Risk: Cathie sells the stock before the IPO.

Rocket Lab USA (RKLB – $87.98) said qualification testing of Neutron’s Stage 1 tank resulted in a rupture during a hydrostatic pressure trial. They are reviewing the Stage 1 test data, which will determine the extent of the impact to Neutron’s launch schedule. Rocket Lab will provide an update on the Neutron schedule during its December quarter earnings call in February.

This is exactly why I thought we should take our substantial gains on the stock in case there was a Neutron delay. If there is a significant change to the launch schedule, the stock will tank and we will buy it back. RKLB is a Wait to Buy.
Primary Risk: A new competitor emerges.

Biotech MegaShift

If you can afford it – and it would not be too big a position in your portfolio – putting $2,000 into each of these speculative biotechs might be a good way to start. Buying these out-of-favor, fallen, or forgotten companies that can get important products through the FDA at very low market capitalizations seems like a good strategy to me.

Risks

Development-stage biotechs are subject to investor sentiment swings from wildly optimistic to excessively pessimistic – mostly the latter recently. After the Primary Risk for each company, I’ve added the clinical stage of their lead product, the probable time of their first FDA approval, and the probable time of their next financing.

As always, you need to think about an appropriate position size. You could buy a full position upfront and then just hold on, or buy some upfront and leave room to add more on the inevitable financings, transient clinical trial setbacks, and the like.

AbCellera Biologics (ABCL- $4.64) dosed the first patients in the Phase 2 portion of its ongoing Phase 1/2 clinical trial of ABCL635, a potential first-in-class non-hormonal treatment for moderate-to-severe vasomotor symptoms (VMS) associated with menopause.

The transition to Phase 2 follows an interim review of safety, tolerability, and pharmacodynamic data from healthy volunteers from the Phase 1 dose escalation portion of the study. It showed encouraging safety and pharmacodynamic data, along with evidence of high target engagement and a strong mechanistic foundation. The Phase 2 portion is a multicenter, randomized, double-blind, placebo-controlled study designed to evaluate the efficacy of ABCL635 in reducing the frequency and severity of VMS in 80 postmenopausal women. We will see top-line results in the September quarter.

The company’s presentation at the JPMorgan Healthcare Conference is unavailable to non-clients. That puts AbCellera in violation of SEC Role FD. Buy ABCL up to $6 for a long-term hold to $30 or more.
Primary Risk: Partnered and owned drugs fail in the clinic.
   Clinical stage of lead product: Partnered: Various Owned: Preclinical
   Probable time of next FDA approval: 2027-2028
   Probable time of next financing: 2026-2027 or never

Akebia Therapeutics (AKBA- $1.44) announced even weaker Vafseo sales in the December quarter than I expected. John Butler had said the change in dosing schedule at US Renal Care was likely to cause a weak quarter. I thought the new sales at DaVita would temper the weakness. Although 25% of new patients in the December quarter came from dialysis organizations other than US Renal, an increase from less than 10% in the September quarter, it wasn’t enough. The 785 prescribers in the December quarter was an increase of 8% over September, but Vafseo end user sales fell to $10.5-$11.5 million. On top of that, the new dosing schedule cut channel inventory by $4.5-$5.0 million. As a result, December quarter Vafseo net product revenue, reduced by the inventory adjustment, will be in the range of $5.0-$6.0 million.

Needless to say, even though the stock had dropped when Butler warned this could happen, it dropped further due to the size of the decline. I expect rapid revenue growth to resume in the March quarter from increased patient access and improvement in adherence and compliance. But now we’re in the second and last year of TDAPA, and Akebia is going to have to go all-out to make Vafseo the standard of care by the end of 2026. It can be done.

There’s been a worldwide surge in chronic kidney disease. It now affects 788 million adults worldwide, a double since 1990. It is now the ninth leading cause of death globally, responsible for roughly 1.48 million deaths in 2023 alone. This is a huge market for Akebia’s technology. Buy AKBA up to $4 for the Vafseo launches in the EU, UK, and US. I think GSK and/or Amgen will make a bid for the company.
Primary Risk: Vafseo doesn’t sell in the US.
   Clinical stage of lead product: Approved
   Probable time of next approval: 2026
   Probable time of next financing: Never

Medicenna (MDNAF – $0.71) provided some key program updates and their 2026 outlook. In the MDNA11 monotherapy expansion cohorts (n=21), the tumor objective response rate (ORR) was 50% in patients treated in a second-line or third-line setting (2L/3L) and 42% when MDNA11 was the next treatment after an immune checkpoint inhibitor (ICI) failure, showing best-in-class potential for advanced cancer patients with no treatment options.

Among all efficacy-evaluable monotherapy patients comprising 18 different cancers (n=55), ORR was 19% with MDNA11 as a 2L/3L treatment and 24% when MDNA11 was the next treatment post-ICI failure. Based on these data, Medicenna plans to complete the ABILITY-1 Phase 1/2 enrollment and plan a registrational trial for 2L/3L melanoma and select other tumor types post-ICI failure.

The NEO-CYT study, sponsored by Fondazione Melanoma Onlus, will be evaluating MDNA11 plus nivolumab, with or without ipilimumab, in front-line therapy for resectable advanced cutaneous melanoma. Patient enrollment will begin in the first half of 2026, with interim data expected in the second half.

Also in the second half of the year, they will file an Investigational New Drug application for a Phase 1 trial of MDNA113. But they said their cash runway is only into the September quarter, so I would expect any rally in the stock to be met with an equity offering. They plan to strengthen the balance sheet through a partnership and/or financing by mid-2026 in preparation for the registrational trial of MDNA11 and beginning the Phase 1 trial of MDNA113. Buy MDNAF under $3 for a first target of $20.
Primary Risk: Their drugs fail in the clinic.
   Clinical stage of lead product: Entering Phase 3
   Probable time of first FDA approval: 2026
   Probable time of next financing: 2025

ScyNexis (SCYX – $0.76) got Qualified Infectious Disease Product (QIDP) and Fast Track Designations from the FDA for SCY-247. The QIDP designation will ensure at least 10 years of market exclusivity for SCY-247 following approval.

A drug that receives Fast Track designation is eligible for some or all of the following:
* * More frequent meetings with FDA to discuss the drug’s development plan and ensure collection of appropriate data needed to support drug approval
* * More frequent written communication from FDA about such things as the design of the proposed clinical trials and use of biomarkers
* * Eligibility for Accelerated Approval and Priority Review, if relevant criteria are met
* * Rolling Review, which means that a drug company can submit completed sections of its Biologic License Application (BLA) or New Drug Application (NDA) for review by FDA, rather than waiting until every section of the NDA is completed before the entire application can be reviewed. BLA or NDA review usually does not begin until the drug company has submitted the entire application to the FDA.

In 2026, ScyNexis will start a Phase 1 trial of SCY-247 with the IV formulation as well as a Phase 2 trial with the oral formulation in invasive candidiasis (IC). They will release proof-of-concept data for the oral formulation of SCY-247 in IC in 2026.

The Independent published an article this month highlighting the growing public health threat in the United States from a rapidly spreading “superbug” strain of Candida auris. The article notes how individuals with compromised immune systems are particularly vulnerable to this strain of fungal infection, which does not respond to currently approved antifungal therapies. Buy SCYX under $2.50 for a target price of $20.
Primary Risk: Ibrexafungerp fails to sell.
   Clinical stage of lead product: Approved
   Probable time of next FDA approval: 2028
   Probable time of next financing: Never

TG Therapeutics (TGTX – $31.63) presented at the JPMorgan Healthcare Conference. We’re blocked from the presentation, but the SLIDES ARE HERE and CEO Mike Weiss issued a press release. He said December quarter Briumvi revenue of $182 million was above guidance. Briumvi hit $594 million for the year, with total revenues of $616 million.

Mike gave in-line 2026 revenue guidance of $875-$900 million, which includes $825-$850 million from Briumvi. He loves to guide to the consensus number and then beat it. He said: “Briumvi continued to deliver strong commercial performance in 2025, reinforcing our confidence in the multi-billion dollar opportunity for Briumvi. With significant market share capture since launch, we believe TG Therapeutics is well positioned to drive long-term revenue growth and cash flow. Additionally, our development programs for consolidated IV Briumvi dosing and self-administered subcutaneous form of Briumvi are expected to drive revenue acceleration over the short and mid-term if approved. In parallel, we plan to initiate multiple exploratory studies that could expand Briumvi beyond MS, providing an additional lever for growth and underscoring its potential as a pipeline-in-a-product.”

His pipeline milestones are:

* * Announce pivotal topline data for the ENHANCE trial combining Day 1 and Day 15 doses of IV Briumvi mid-year 2026 for an expected launch in 2027
* * Present preliminary Phase 1 azer-cel data in Progressive MS in the second half of 2026
* * Announce pivotal topline data for subcutaneous Briumvi year-end 2026/1Q 2027 for an expected launch in 2028
* * Begin a registration-directed trial for Briumvi in an indication outside of MS
* * Begin additional exploratory studies for Briumvi and azer-cel in an autoimmune disease outside MS

Buy TGTX under $30 for a target price in a buyout of $40 or more.
Primary Risk: Briumvi, the MS drug, fails to sell.
   Clinical stage of lead product: Approved
   Probable time of next FDA approval: NM
   Probable time of next financing: Never

Inflation MegaShift

Metals extended their dramatic start to the year — gold, silver, copper, and tin all hit record highs — with investors piling into the commodities as a red-hot alternative to more traditional assets. Frenzied buying in China across multiple metals has stoked the recent moves while investors have been seeking safe havens amid geopolitical flashpoints and the Trump administration’s attacks on the Fed. Tin was the standout among base metals, at one point gaining almost 11%, while nickel also surged, and copper hit an all-time-high.

Gold ($4,937.40) and silver jumped to fresh records today as President Trump doubled down on his pursuit of Greenland. Gold futures climbed above $4,900 per ounce while silver surged over $96 per ounce, extending a string of record highs that has been building for months. The debasement trade is on fire and precious metals are the outlet. This morning, Goldman Sachs raised their year-end target price for gold to $5,400.

Central banks are probably buying more than they are saying:

Click for larger graphic h/t @GoldForecast

Silver miners are supposed to be a leveraged play on the price of silver, but their one-year return is the same as the metal. If silver holds anywhere near $100 an ounce or continues to rise, silver miners will likely catch up soon by rocketing higher.

Miners & Related

Coeur Mining (CDE – $25.77) will hold a special meeting of shareholders on January 27 at noon EST to vote on the New Gold merger. Vote YES. CDE is a Buy under $10 for a $20 target as gold goes higher.
Primary Risk: Prices of precious metals fall due to US dollar strength.

Dakota Gold (DC – $7.00) said the 2026 Richmond Hill drill campaign includes a total of 50,790 feet of drilling in 109 holes. Infill drilling will convert inferred to measured and indicated resources for the initial 10 year mine plan area, expansion drilling will focus on the north Project area, and condemnation drilling will test areas for infrastructure suitability to ensure optimal site design for the Feasibility Study. All drilling required for the purpose of the Feasibility Study is expected to be completed by the September quarter.

They will complete a Pre-Feasibility Study (PFS) for Richmond Hill in the second half of 2026. With the resource expansion drilling in the north intersecting significantly higher grades than resource cut-off, complimented with an extensive metallurgical test program, they will publish a PFS in the second half of 2026 with a focus on the first ten years of mining. This will allow them to report reserves in 2026 and will inform the Feasibility Study to be completed in the first half of 2027.

They’ll also launch a 2026 Maitland drill campaign of 18,300 feet in 44 holes of infill drilling to define a maiden resource for the Tertiary-aged Unionville gold Zone.

I recommended Dakota Gold at $2.39 on October 24 with a $6 target, and here we are at $7. But it’s not quite time to get off the gold bull, so DC is a Hold as gold goes higher.
Primary Risk: Robert Quartermain doesn’t find enough gold. Secondary risk: Prices of precious metals fall due to US dollar strength.

First Majestic (AG – $24.22) announced December fourth quarter production up 37% year-over-year to 7.8 million attributable silver equivalent (AgEq) ounces (or 8.9 million AgEq ounces using updated 2025 guidance assumptions for metal prices), consisting of 4.2 million silver ounces; 41,417 gold ounces; 14.2 million pounds of zinc; 8.1 million pounds of lead; and 235,886 pounds of copper.

The 4.2 million silver ounces were a 77% year-over-year increase. Total silver production in the quarter included 1.5 million ounces of attributable silver production from the Los Gatos mine they acquired.

In 2026, they expect to produce between 13.0-14.4 million ounces of silver, 116,000-129,000 ounces of gold, 52.4-58.2 million pounds of zinc, 34.2-38.1 million pounds of lead, and 1.1-1.3 million pounds of copper. AG is a Buy under $11 for a $23 next target price as production increases and the price of silver rises.
Primary Risk: Prices of precious metals fall due to US dollar strength.

Royal Gold (RGLD – $287.83) sold approximately 64,000 gold equivalent ounces (GEOs) in the December fourth quarter. Total sales for 2025 were approximately 195,400 GEOs. During the fourth quarter they repaid $325 million of debt, which resulted in an outstanding balance of $900 million as of December 31. They repaid a further $75 million on January 12, which resulted in an outstanding balance on the revolving credit facility of $825 million, leaving $575 million undrawn and available.

CEO Bill Heissenbuttel was on a royalty panel at the CIBC Western Institutional Investor Conference (WEBCAST HERE and TRANSCRIPT HERE), but there was nothing new. RGLD is a Buy under $180.
Primary Risk: Prices of precious metals fall due to US dollar strength.

Cryptocurrencies

Cryptocurrencies are a diversifying asset that offer a unique opportunity to make (or lose!) a lot of money quickly.

Bitcoin (BTC-USD on Yahoo – $89,532.00) has been flat. Despite short-term volatility, total crypto market cap has remained above about $3 trillion, underlining persistent investor interest amid broader macro and regulatory uncertainty. Billionaire Michael Saylor’s bitcoin-focused firm Strategy said on Tuesday it bought about $2.13 billion worth of bitcoin over the past eight days, stepping up ‌purchases even as its stock has been pressured by cryptocurrency volatility. The company acquired ‌roughly 22,305 bitcoin between the period of January 12 and January 19, according to a regulatory filing.

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BTC-USD, ETH-USD, IBIT, and ETHA are Strong Buys.
Primary Risk: Bitcoin falls due to over-regulation or is surpassed by another cryptocurrency.

iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT- $50.67) remains the cheapest and easiest way to buy bitcoin. IBIT is a Buy for the 2028, 2032, and 2036 halvings.
Primary Risk:Bitcoin falls due to over-regulation or is surpassed by another cryptocurrency.

Ethereum (ETH-USD on Yahoo – $2,950.93) will hit $40,000 by 2030, beating bitcoin, according to Standard Chartered. The bank sees ether benefiting from sector-specific tailwinds even as broader crypto momentum remains uneven. They are bullish on stablecoins, real-world assets, and DeFi [decentralized finance], areas where Ethereum remains the dominant platform. They said: “Passage of the US CLARITY Act — which creates a regulatory framework for digital assets — would boost digital assets, particularly ETH, if it unlocks the next steps for DeFi.”

ETH-USD is a Buy.
Primary Risk: Bitcoin extensions outperform Ethereum.

iShares Ethereum Trust (ETHA- $22.17) remains the cheapest and easiest way to buy ethereum. ETHA is a Buy for the coming explosion in token-funded start-ups.
Primary Risk: Ethereum falls due to over-regulation or is surpassed by another cryptocurrency.

Commodities

Oil – $59.59

The Energy Information Administration finally is transitioning from fantasy to reality. They just forecast US crude oil production will average 13.5 million barrels per day in 2026, about 100,000 barrels per day less than in 2025. Is the EIA quietly turning bullish? Here’s a global oil production forecast, from Energy Aspects.

Click for larger graphic h/t @ericnuttall via @JoshYoung

Just as global oil production is rolling over, global oil demand is booming. The Joint Organisations Data Initiative says global oil demand rose by 2.4 million barrels per day in October, year-over-year.

Click for larger graphic h/t @OilHeadlineNews via @JoshYoung

This is a notable change in historic behavior that validates my view that many US shale companies are in their twilight, having drilled their best acreage during the worst part of the commodity cycle. Peak US shale = peak non-OPEC production in 2026 = birth of the next oil bull market.

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The July 2026 Crude Oil Futures (CLN26.NYM – $59.17) are a Buy under $70 for a $200+ target. Only buy futures for all cash; do not use margin.

The United States 12 Month Oil Fund, LP (USL – $34.49) is a Buy under $40 for a $100+ target.

Vermilion Energy (VET – $9.04) is a Buy under $11 for a target price of $24 or more.
Primary Risk: Oil and natural gas prices fall.

Energy Fuels (UUUU – $24.42) is acquiring Australian Strategic Materials, a leading producer of rare earth metals and alloys, for $299 million in stock. The combined company will be the largest, fully integrated rare earth elements (REE) “mine-to-metal & alloy” producer outside of China. That fills a critical strategic gap in global supply chains for magnet applications, including automotive, robotic, energy, and defense technologies.

On the conference call (AUDIO HERE and TRANSCRIPT HERE), management said that upon completion, the transaction will combine ASM’s operating Korean Metals Plant (KMP) and its planned American Metals Plant (AMP) with Energy Fuels’ existing REE oxide production at its White Mesa Mill in Utah. The White Mesa Mill is the only US facility capable of separating monazite concentrates into both light and heavy REE oxides that are planned to be utilized in ASM’s metallization and alloying facilities in South Korea and the US.

ASM’s KMP is one of the few facilities outside of China currently producing REE metals and alloys, including neodymium-praseodymium (NdPr), dysprosium (Dy), and terbium (Tb) metals and neodymium-iron-boron (NdFeB) and dysprosium-iron (DyFe) alloys. By integrating low-cost and scalable REE separation with downstream REE metal and alloy conversion, Energy Fuels expects to enhance vertical integration, margin capture, and market share across the REE value chain, providing the company with the flexibility to sell REE products to end-users at multiple stages.

The transaction addresses a lack of downstream REE refining and conversion capability, which is one the most persistent vulnerabilities in ex-China REE supply chains. ASM’s Dubbo REE Project in NSW, Australia will strengthen Energy Fuels’ pipeline of REE development projects, which currently includes the Donald project in Victoria, Australia, the Vara Mada project in Madagascar, and Bahia project in Brazil, which are all intended to supply feed materials for the planned expansion of the company’s White Mesa Mill to produce 6,000 tonnes per annum (tpa) neodymium-praseodymium (NdPr), 240 tpa dysprosium (Dy), and 66 tpa terbium (Tb) oxides.

Additionally, the planned American Metals Plant provides Energy Fuels with a de-risked plan to construct an REE metals and alloys facility in the United States capable of producing 2,000 tonnes per annum of alloy by leveraging the technology and intellectual property used at ASM’s operating KMP to better serve the company’s customers. UUUU is a buy under $8 for a $30 target.
Primary Risk: Uranium prices fall.

EQT (EQT – $54.73) jumped as natural gas futures surged by more than 75% over the past five days to mark the largest five-day jump since at least 1990. Forecasts call for a deep freeze to grip the eastern two-thirds of North America later this week and into much of next week, causing sustained heating demand and possible production losses. The wrong-footed hedge funds raised their bearish positions on gas last week, leaving the market primed for a short-covering rally.

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Average temperatures will be at least 8^oF below normal across much of the Midwest, Mid-Atlantic and parts of southern New England through Saturday, according to Commodity Weather Group. An arctic blast will push into Texas over the weekend, dropping temperatures below freezing across much of the state. On top of the cold temperatures, large parts of north central Texas may also be hit with an ice storm. Heavy snow will likely fall across Oklahoma. The band of freezing temperatures and ice will spread eastward across the South through Louisiana, Mississippi and Alabama. The consulting firm Energy Aspects increased its forecast for gas supply lost to freeze-offs this winter to 80 billion cubic feet, much of which may happen over the coming two weeks from the winter storm.

Gas flows were also diverted from several US liquefied natural gas facilities to meet soaring heating demand around the country rather than being exported to pricier European and Asian markets. LNG feedgas deliveries hit new highs in 2025, and that trend is expected to continue in 2026 as new LNG export capacity comes online, most recently from train 4 of Corpus Christi Stage III at the end of December. Between the remaining three trains of Corpus Christi Stage III and the long-awaited Golden Pass facility, 2.7 billion cubic feet a day of new LNG export capacity is slated to come online in 2026.

At the same time, the US natural gas power burn is expected to rebound in Summer 2026 from its 2025 slump as more load comes online, with data-center demand growth being the largest contributor to the increase.

In the rest of the world, with coal use decreasing across Asia before 2030, natural gas takes on a transitional role in the scenario for Asia until around 2045.

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EQT CEO Toby Rice said the alarm bells are ringing on AI power demand.

UBS reiterated its Buy recommendation and $76 target price ahead of the December quarter earnings report. EQT is a buy under $70 for a long-term hold for much higher prices.
Primary Risk:Natural gas prices fall.

Freeport McMoRan (FCX – $58.85) reported December quarter revenues down only 1.6% from last year to $5.63 billion. That beat the consensus for $5.35 billion as the rising price of copper offset the production loss from the Grasberg Mine disaster. Pro forma earnings of 47¢ a share clobbered the 32¢ estimate.

Click for larger graphic h/t Seeking Alpha

Consolidated sales totaled 709 million pounds of copper, 80,000 ounces of gold, and 22 million pounds of molybdenum in the fourth quarter. Average realized prices were $5.33 per pound for copper, $4,078 per ounce for gold, and $23.77 per pound for molybdenum.

For the full year, they sold 3.6 billion pounds of copper, 1.1 million ounces of gold, and 83 million pounds of molybdenum. Average realized prices were $4.75 per pound for copper, $3,423 per ounce for goldm and $22.63 per pound for molybdenum.

For 2026, consolidated sales are expected to approximate 3.4 billion pounds of copper, 0.8 million ounces of gold, and 90 million pounds of molybdenum. That includes March quarter sales of 640 million pounds of copper, 60,000 ounces of gold, and 22 million pounds of molybdenum.

On the conference call (AUDIO HERE and SLIDES HERE and TRANSCRIPT HERE), CEO Kathleen Quirk said they will begin a phased restart of the Grasberg Mine in the June quarter, as planned. They expect to be producing at 85% of capacity in the second half of 2026.

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Copper is heading into a structural deficit beginning in 2026 as demand from electrification accelerates faster than new supply, according to BloombergNEF. In its December report, Transition Metals Outlook 2025, BloombergNEF says copper faces the most acute pressure among transition metals, driven by rapid growth in data centers, grid expansion, and electric-vehicle adoption. Energy-transition demand for copper is set to triple by 2045, pushing the market into persistent deficit unless investment and recycling ramp up.

Freeport has bounced back further than I expected, and I think we can keep holding it as copper heads for $7+ a pound. FCX is a Hold.
Primary Risk: Copper prices fall.

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RIP Scott Adams

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Your reading 2026 market outlooks Editor,

Michael Murphy CFA
Founding Editor
New World Investor

All Recommendations

Priced 1/22/26. Check out the complete Portfolio page HERE.

Buys
These are the stocks everyone needs to own because transformative events are happening over the next year or two, and I expect to hold them long-term.

Tech Dominators
  Apple Computer (AAPL – $248.35) – Buy under $205
  Gilead Sciences (GILD – $131.14) – Buy under $115, first target price $150
  Meta (META – $647.63) – Buy under $705 for a long-term hold
  Onsemi (ON – $63.07) – Buy under $60, first target price $130
  Palantir (PLTR – $165.90) – Buy under $160 for $200 first target price
  PayPal (PYPL – $57.18) – Buy under $75, target price $150
  Snap (SNAP – $7.66) – Buy under $11, target price $17+

Small Tech
  Enovix (ENVX – $7.70) – Buy under $20; 4-year hold to $100+
  First Trust NASDAQ Cybersecurity ETF (CIBR – $70.65) – Buy under $75; 3- to 5-year hold
  Fastly (FSLY – $9.38) – Buy under $10 for a 3- to 5-year hold to $50+
  PagerDuty (PD – $11.21) – Buy under $30; 2- to 5-year hold
  QuickLogic (QUIK – $8.83) – Buy under $10, target price $40
  ARK Venture Fund (ARKVX – $47.21) – Buy for SpaceX

$20-for-$1 Biotech
  AbCellera Biologics (ABCL – $4.64) – Buy under $6, target $30+
  Akebia Therapeutics (AKBA – $1.44) – Buy under $4, target $20
  Compass Pathways (CMPS – $7.13) – Buy under $10, hold a long time for a 20x return
  Editas Medicines (EDIT – $2.38) – Buy under $6 for a double in 12 months and a long-term hold to much higher prices
  Inovio (INO – $1.56) – Buy under $5, hold a long time
  Medicenna (MDNAF – $0.71) – Buy under $3, first target $20, then maybe $40
  ScyNexis (SCYX – $0.76) – Buy under $2.50, target price $20, then $50
  TG Therapeutics (TGTX – $31.63) – Buy under $30 for buyout at $40+

Inflation
  A Short-Sale or REO House – ($415,400) – Hold
  Bag of Junk Silver – ($96.88) – hold through silver bull market
  Sprott Gold Miners ETF (SGDM – $85.04) – Buy under $50, target price $75
  Sprott Junior Gold Miners ETF (SGDJ – $104.44) – Buy under $60, target price $100
  Sprott Physical Gold and Silver Trust (CEF – $55.01) – Buy under $35, target price $60
  Global X Silver Miners ETF (SIL – $108.66) – Buy under $60, target price $100
  Coeur Mining (CDE – $25.77) – Buy under $10, target price $20
  First Majestic Mining (AG – $24.22) – Buy under $11, next target price $23
  Paramount Gold Nevada (PZG – $1.60) – Buy under $1, first target price $10
  Royal Gold (RGLD – $287.83) – Buy under $180

Cryptocurrencies
  Bitcoin (BTC-USD – $89,532.00) – Buy
  iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT – $50.67) – Buy
  Ethereum (ETH-USD – $2,950.93)– Buy
  iShares Ethereum Trust (ETHA- $22.17) – Buy

Commodities
  Crude Oil Futures – July 2026 (CLN26.NYM – $59.17) – Buy under $70; $200+ target
  United States 12 Month Oil Fund, LP (USL – $34.49) – Buy under $40; $100+ target
  Vermilion Energy (VET – $9.04) – Buy under $11; $24+ target
  Energy Fuels (UUUU – $24.42) – Buy under $18; $30 target
  EQT (EQT – $54.73) – Buy under $70; hold for much higher prices ($100+)

Holds
These are holds but not sells – yet. They could get moved back to one of the buy categories if their prices drop or outlook improves, or they could become sell recommendations in the future.
  Nvidia (NVDA – $185.84) – Hold
  SoftBank (SFTBY – $13.73) – Hold
  Dakota Gold (DC – $7.00) – Hold for $6 target price
  Freeport McMoRan (FCX – $58.85) – Hold for an exit in the mid- to high-$40s

Publisher: GwynRose LLC, 5348 Vegas Drive, Suite 868, Las Vegas, NV 89108

New World Investor does not act as a personal investment adviser or advocate the purchase or sale of any security or investment for any specific individual. The recommendations and analysis presented to members are for the exclusive use of members. Members should be aware that investment markets have inherent risks and there can be no guarantee of future profits. Likewise, past performance does not assure future results. Recommendations are subject to change at any time. Nothing in this presentation should be considered personalized investment advice. No communication to you by Michael Murphy or any of our employees or contractors should be deemed as personalized investment advice.

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