Dear New World Investor:
The headline March Consumer Price Index hit a 40-year high of +8.5%, yet yields fell on Treasury paper because the core CPI excluding food and energy was up “only” 0.3% from February, compared to the 0.5% expected. The core numbers will slow quickly and the Fed’s preferred measure, the cost of Personal Consumer Expenditures, will follow. That will slow the pace of Fed rate hikes.
Click for larger graphic
The headline year-over-year number should start falling as the base effect (lowish numbers last year) disappears. However, natural gas, oil, gasoline, and food prices are going to be higher than I expected due to President Biden’s perceived antipathy to the fossil fuel industry and the Ukraine war and related sanctions.
SocGen’s quantitative analyst, who nailed the peak of the last Fed tightening in May 2018 by predicting the peak in Fed funds would be a lower-than-consensus 2½%, says his latest analysis for this cycle puts the peak of the Fed funds at just below 1.0%, or less than three more rate hikes before the Fed is forced to reverse. He thinks rapidly shrinking the Fed’s balance sheet – Quantitative Tightening – has a rapid, major effect on economic activity.
Campbell Harvey, the Duke University finance professor who pioneered the use of bond-market yield curves as a predictive tool, says that it’s too soon to say whether a recession is on the way because the recent brief inversion of the 2-year/10-year Treasury spread needs to persist for three months to provide a meaningful signal. Yet the most recent BofA survey showed global fund managers have never been more pessimistic about the outlook for economic growth.
Click for larger graphic
Recession now is their biggest fear.
Click for larger graphic
Maybe they’re right, and Professor Harvey is wrong. But it looks to me like a recession is more of a 2023 worry, and the bull market can continue for quite some time.
The S&P 500 lost 2.4% since last Thursday and is down 7.8% year-to-date. The Nasdaq Composite lost 3.9% as tech stocks continued to get hit. It is down 14.7% for the year. The small-cap Russell 2000 dropped only 0.2% but is still in correction territory, down 10.7% in 2022.
The fractal dimension is showing this two-week dip as a consolidation move of the prior three up weeks, not a new trend.
Top 5
Changes this week: Added TGTX to Near-Term
Near-Term – chronological order
TGTX TG Therapeutics – Oncologic Drugs Advisory Committee meeting April 22
OIL iPath Pure Beta Crude Oil Exchange-Traded Note – crude should rise quickly
GBTC Grayscale Bitcoin Trust – Bitcoin is coming out of one of its periodic sharp drops
FB Meta – Bounce from overdone selloff
Long-Term – alphabetical order
ARTH Arch Therapeutics – High-value wound care and hemostat for surgery
CWBR CohBar – mitochondria drugs and life extension
GRPH Graphic Bio – second-generation genetic editing
NVTA Invitae – the winner-take-most of genetic testing
FB Meta – a leader in the metaverse
Economy
The Blue Chip Economists sharply cut their March real GDP forecast to +1.0%, in line with this morning’s Atlanta Fed GDPNow model forecast of 1.1%. The first estimate comes in two weeks on April 28. The predictable clickbait headlines will be Stagflation!!! Recession Imminent!! Don’t believe it – the June quarter should see another round of inventory accumulation to drive higher GDP growth.
Click for larger graphic
Virus Update
Worldometers now shows 502,498,972 worldwide confirmed infections, of which 459,019,322 have run their course. Of those, 452,803,357 recovered and 6,215,965 died – matching the last two week’s new low case fatality rate of 1.4%
In the US, there have been 82,192,880 confirmed infections, of which 81,066,175 have run their course. Of those, 80,052,061 recovered and 1,014,114 died, a new low case fatality rate of 1.3%.
But the new BA.2 omicron sub-variant is causing a small uptick in cases in New York City and some other Northeastern states:
Click for larger graphic
President Biden made mask-wearing mandatory shortly after he took office. As a result of this little uptick, the CDC is extending its mask mandate for airplanes and public transit until at least May 3. It was initially set to expire on April 18. The agency said it will assess the impact that the rise in cases will have on hospitalizations and deaths before making a determination on the future of the mandate.
Total US daily cases bottomed on April 1 at 28,549 and are up 15% to 32,860 yesterday.
Click for larger graphic
Hospitalizations have fallen below 10,000 from 146,542 at the January 19 peak.
Click for larger graphic
Daily deaths continue to fall to 388 yesterday.
Click for larger graphic
Coming Events
All times below are ET, and most of the presentations and slides are archived on the companies’ websites so you can listen to them.
Friday, April 15
Stock Market Closed
Thursday, April 21
ACRDF – Acreage Holdings – 9:30am – Benzinga Cannabis Capital Conference
Friday, April 22
TGTX – Oncologic Drugs Advisory Committee meeting – 9:00am
The $20-For-$1 Stocks
Say you put $2,000 into a stock that goes from 50¢ a share to $10. The $2,000 turns into $40,000. Then you put the $40,000 into another stock that goes from 50¢ to $10. That turns the $40,000 into $800,000. You did it with two stocks, and never risked going negative more than $2,000. (Not that you won’t be mad at me if the first one works and then the second one doesn’t, taking your $40,000 to Money Heaven.)
If you can afford it – and it would not be too big a position in your portfolio – putting $2,000 into each of these 12 speculative biotechs might be a good way to start.
The market capitalizations of these recommendations typically are very low. At the same time, Initial Public Offering valuations have moved very high. We are seeing $750 million to $900 million valuations for a good preclinical/Phase 1 IPO, and even $300 million to $500 million for mediocre Phase 1s. I don’t see how investors make 5x to 10x in a reasonable, three- to four-year period. How many biotechs have moved north of $10 billion within 5 years after pricing an IPO in the $700 million to $900 million range? Hardly any. Buying these out of favor, fallen, or forgotten companies that can get important products through the FDA at very low market capitalizations seems like a much better strategy to me.
Risks
Development-stage biotechs are subject to investor sentiment swings from wildly optimistic to excessively pessimistic – mostly the latter recently. After the Primary Risk for each company, I’ve added the clinical stage of their lead product, the probable time of their first FDA approval, and the probable time of their next financing.
As always, you need to think about an appropriate position size. You could buy a full position upfront and then just hold on, or buy some upfront and leave room to add more on the inevitable financings, transient clinical trial setbacks, and the like.
Antares Pharma (ATRS – $5.56) got a low-ball takeover offer from Halozyme (HALO) and I sent out the following Flash Alert:
“Halozyme (HALO) has made an all-cash $5.60 a share offer for our Antares Pharma (ATRS). I recommended ATRS in September 2009 at 93¢ a share, so we made 500% in 12 1/2 years. Better than the proverbial sharp stick in the eye, but this offer WAY undervalues Antares.
“It will take Halozyme two or three weeks to do their due diligence, so we don’t have to worry about the deal falling apart in the next week. Because it’s an all-cash offer, we don’t have to worry about the HALO stock price. There’s no downside to waiting a week to see if there’s a higher offer.
“Pfizer is an Antares partner. They just hired David Denton from Lowe’s as their new Chief Financial Officer to help them spend their vaccine windfall. He negotiated the Caremark acquisition for CVS Health when he was the CFO there. Antares may be too small potatoes for him, but let’s wait a week and see. Don’t Sell ATRS Yet!”
Hold ATRS.
Primary Risk: Xyosted prescriptions stop growing or other products don’t sell well.
Clinical stage of lead product: Approved
Probable time of first FDA approval: Approved
Probable time of next financing: Not needed
Aptose Biosciences (APTO – $1.25) canceled today’s presentation at the Canaccord Genuity Horizons in Oncology Conference. Probably nothing, except I’ve seen this happen when a company is in merger discussions. APTO is a Buy under $4 for a $45 target in a buyout.
Primary Risk: Either drug fails in clinical trials.
Clinical stage of lead product: Phase 1a
Probable time of first FDA approval: 2025
Probable time of next financing: late 2022 or early 2023
Biotech MegaShift
TG Therapeutics (TGTX – $8.85) has their Oncologic Drugs Advisory Committee meeting on April 22. I expect good news so I added it to the near-term Top 5, but this is an FDA committee and therefore a risky position – not to mention that ODAC could vote in favor of the drug and the FDA could turn them down anyway. Buy TGTX under $40 for a target price in a buyout of $80 or more.
Primary Risk: Ukoniq fails to sell or FDA turns down U2.
Clinical stage of lead product: Approved
Probable time of next FDA approval: mid-2022
Probable time of next financing: Not needed
Biotech & Digital Dominators MegaShift
There are at least four ways to make money in the stocks of these large, growing, dominant companies. You can:
* * Buy a stock and hold it
* * Buy a stock and write a call option against it
* * With a Level IV options account, write an out-of-the-money put option
* * With a Level IV options account, write an out-of-the-money put option and use part of the premium to buy an out-of-the-money call option
Apple (AAPL – $165.29) may sharply increase its stock buyback program when they announce earnings on April 28, according to whispers on the Street. AAPL is a Hold for new iPhone rollouts and augmented/virtual reality products.
Gilead Sciences (GILD – $61.82) said the FDA lifted the partial clinical hold on trials of magrolimab in combination with azacitidinefor myelodysplastic syndrome and acute myeloid leukemia.
The company presented an Oncology Deep Dive today (ZOOM HERE and 148 SLIDES HERE). They said in 2021 they had over $1 billion in oncology revenue from six approvals. They have 20 pipeline assets in over 30 clinical trials. By 2030 they intend to get over 20 new oncology drug approvals and generate at least one-third of revenues from oncology.
They are focused on novel drugs with first-in-class or best-in-class potential, especially those that can be a “pipeline in a product” that work against many cancers or work well in combinations. The have added about 2,000 full-time employees in oncology in every area, including R&D, legal, manufacturing, operations, and field sales.
They have bought or invested in several companies that have made substantial progress:
Click for larger graphic
This has led to a very large pipeline:
Click for larger graphic
So there will be a steady stream of news to drive the stock:
Click for larger graphic
The takeaway:
Click for larger graphic
My takeaway is simple. Gilead is the most undervalued Big Pharma and an excellent choice for the conservative end of your barbell portfolio. GILD is a Long-Term Buy under $105 for a first target of $130.
Other Tech
Rocket Lab USA (RKLB – $8.42) started construction of its state-of-the-art rocket production complex where the Neutron launch vehicle will be manufactured. The 250,000 ft2 Neutron Production Complex is being constructed on a 28-acre site adjacent to the NASA Wallops Flight Facility and Mid-Atlantic Regional Spaceport on Virginia’s Eastern Shore. The complex will support Neutron production, assembly, and integration. Construction will also soon begin on a Neutron launch pad at the southern end of Wallops Island, near Rocket Lab’s existing launch pad for the Electron rocket. RKLB is a Buy up to $13 for my $30+ target as low earth orbit satellites and space exploration grow.
Primary Risk:A new competitor emerges.
Probable time of next financing: None needed
Velo3D (VLD – $5.19) started a biweekly podcast to interview innovators in various industries and roles related to 3D printing and mechanical engineering, including aviation, space, automotive, and manufacturing. The first season of 12 episodes is on all major streaming apps. VLD is a Buy up to $11 for my $50 target as Velo3D’s high-tolerance metal parts printing business grows.
Primary Risk:A new 3D metal printing competitor emerges.
Probable time of next financing: None needed
Inflation MegaShift
Gold ($1,975.20) had another good week and the fractal dimension is heading quickly towards signaling a new uptrend. Another couple of up weeks, or at least flattish weeks, could get gold near the all-time highs and signal the start of a major new uptrend. There is enough stored-up energy to take gold well over $2,000. Mother’s Day is coming – get that jewelry before the price goes up.
Cryptocurrencies
Cryptocurrencies are a diversifying asset that offer a unique opportunity to make (or lose!) a lot of money quickly. You can easily buy Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies at Coinbase, Block, or Robinhood.
Bitcoin (BTC-USD on Yahoo – $39,966.50) fell after various Fed members talked tougher about raising interest rates. So far, these sell-off lows have been progressively higher, which is a good sign.
Click for larger graphic
Peter Thiel, a billionaire co-founder of PayPal, gave the keynote speech at Bitcoin 2022 in Miami…
…and raised a fuss by calling Warren Buffet,
Click for larger graphic
Jamie Dimon,
Click for larger graphic
and Larry Fink,
Click for larger graphic
the “finance gerontocracy” opposed to a “revolutionary youth movement” that embraces bitcoin. Thiel blamed the “gerontocrats” for Bitcoin’s failure to reach $100,000, pinning blame on Warren Buffett, whom he called a “sociopathic grandpa,” as well as Dimon, the 66-year-old chief executive officer of JPMorgan who called bitcoin a “fraud” on multiple occasions, and BlackRock’s Larry Fink, 69, of using investing ESG practices as a “hate factory” to undermine bitcoin and other businesses, adding that ESG has been harnessed and weaponized against Bitcoin right now.
At a 2000 panel in Silicon Valley, I said a lot of tech stocks, including Intel, were overvalued, and a young brokerage firm analyst literally yelled at me: “You don’t get it! You just don’t get it!” I’m doubtful that calling Warren Buffet a sociopathic grandpa is going to advance bitcoin’s cause, but I still think it has a long way to run. It sure would help to get a spot bitcoin exchange-traded fund approved. BTC-USD, ETH-USD, GBTC and ETHE are Strong Buys.
Primary Risk: Bitcoin falls due to over-regulation or is surpassed by another cryptocurrency.
Oil – $106.41
Oil briefly went under $100 on fears that China’s new round of COVID lockdowns could hurt demand – they won’t – or the Strategic Petroleum Reserves releases will have an impact – they won’t – or worries that Saudi Arabia will stop making videos that mock President Biden and meet his requests for more oil – they won’t.
The July 2026 Crude Oil Futures (CLN26.NYM – $53.16) are a Buy under $55 for a $200+ target.
The iPath Pure Beta Crude Oil Exchange-Traded Note (OIL – $34.15) is a Buy under $24 for an $80+ target.
Energy Fuels (UUUU – $10.70) said that during the week of April 4, their White Mesa Mill near Blanding, Utah made three commercial shipments of three critical mineral products.
* * Natural uranium concentrates (“U3O8”) to the Metropolis Works uranium conversion facility in Metropolis, Illinois for conversion into uranium hexafluoride, which will be enriched and used as fuel for the production of nuclear energy
* * Vanadium pentoxide (“V2O5”) to the Bear Metallurgical Company in Butler, Pennsylvania for conversion to ferrovanadium which will be sold into the steel and specialty alloys industries;
* * High-purity mixed rare earth element (REE) carbonate to Neo Performance Materials’ Silmet facility in Estonia for separation into advanced REE products. The REE Carbonate had undergone partial separation at the mill prior to its delivery to Silmet, which is the first commercial-scale REE separation to occur in the US since at least the early-2000s.
UUUU is a buy under $11 for a $30 target.
Primary Risk: Uranium prices fall.
* * * * *
The Original Income Tax
This is the rate schedule from the original 1913 income tax form. It was sold as a low-rate income tax and only applied to extraordinarily high incomes. The 1% tax kicked in at $20,000 – the equivalent of $573,000 a year today.
* * * * *
DALL-E AI is a program that generates images – art? – in response to prompts.
Prompt: A wise cat meditating in the Himalayas searching for enlightenment
Click for larger graphic
* * * * *
The stock market is closed tomorrow. Have a wonderful Easter or Passover if you are celebrating and a great weekend if not.
Your reading the new Russian Dissent substack Editor,
Michael Murphy CFA
Founding Editor
New World Investor
All Recommendations
Check out the complete Portfolio page HERE.
Buys
These are the stocks everyone needs to own because transformative events are happening over the next year or two, and I expect to hold them long-term.
$20-for-$1
Aptose Biosciences (APTO – $1.25) – Buy under $4, ultimate target $45
Arch Therapeutics (ARTH – $0.09) – Buy under $0.70, first target $2, then $7
Bellerophon Therapeutics (BLPH – $2.13) – Buy under $11, first target $30, then $300
Compass Pathways (CMPS – $12.60) – Buy under $36, hold a long time for a 10x return
Graphite Bio (GRPH – $4.29) – Buy under $26, hold a long time
Inovio (INO – $3.20) – Buy under $21, hold a long time
Invitae (NVTA – $6.50) – Buy under $50, first target $100, then $200+
Medicenna (MDNA – $1.24) – Buy under $4, first target $40, then maybe $80
ScyNexis (SCYX – $3.35) – Buy under $24, target price $54, then $170
Other Biotech
TG Therapeutics (TGTX – $8.85) – Buy under $40, target price $80+
Tech Dominators
Corning (GLW – $33.69) – Buy under $33, target price $60
Meta (FB – $210.18) – Buy under $320, target price $400
Gilead Sciences (GILD – $61.82) – Buy under $105, target price $130
SoftBank (SFTBY – $22.43) – Buy under $30, target price $60
Other Tech
First Trust NASDAQ Cybersecurity ETF (CIBR – $52.12) – Buy under $32; 3- to 5-year hold
Fastly (FSLY – $18.88) – Buy under $45; 2- to 5-year hold to $150+
PagerDuty (PD – $32.62) – Buy under $40; 2- to 5-year hold
QuickLogic (QUIK – $5.10) – Buy under $10, target price $60
Liberty Media Acquisition Corporation (LMACA – $9.96) – Buy under $10.50, target price $20 to $30
Rocket Lab (RKLB – $8.42) – Buy under $13, target price $30+
Velo3D (VLD – $5.19) – Buy under $11, target price $50
Inflation
A Short-Sale or REO House – Buy while fixed mortgage rates are low
Bag of Junk Silver – $25.85 – hold through silver bull market
Sprott Gold Miners ETF (SGDM – $34.70) – Buy under $25, target price $50
Sprott Junior Gold Miners ETF (SGDJ – $45.98) – Buy under $39, target price $100
Sprott Physical Gold and Silver Trust (CEF – $19.88) – Buy under $15, target price $30
Global X Silver Miners ETF (SIL – $39.44) – Buy under $30, target price $50
Coeur Mining (CDE – $5.27) – Buy under $10, target price $20
First Majestic Mining (AG – $14.24) – Buy under $15, next target price $23
Paramount Gold Nevada (PZG – $0.63) – Buy under $5, first target price $10
Sandstorm Gold (SAND – $8.91) – Buy under $10, target price $25
Sprott Inc. (SII – $53.50) – Buy under $30, target price $70
Cryptocurrencies
Bitcoin (BTC-USD – $39,966.50) – Buy
Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC – $28.50) – Buy
Ethereum (ETH-USD – $3,020.96) – Buy
Grayscale Ethereum Trust (ETHE – $22.21) – Buy
International & Other Recommendations
EMQQ Emerging Markets Internet & Ecommerce ETF (EMQQ – $31.32) – Buy under $38 for a $66 target in 12 to 18 months
KraneShares Bosera MSCI China A Share Fund (KBA – $36.84) – Buy under $34 for a three- to five-year hold
Morgan Stanley China A-Shares Fund (CAF – $16.07) – Buy under $24 for a three- to five-year hold
KraneShares CSI China Internet ETF (KWEB – $27.86) – Buy under $50 for a double over the next three years
Acreage Holdings (ACRDF – $1.39) – Buy under $4.49 for the Canopy Growth merger
Mongolia Growth Group (MNGGF – $1.47) – Buy under $1.25; long-term hold
Energy
Crude Oil Futures – July 2026 (CLN26.NYM – $53.16) – Buy under $55, $200+ target
iPath Pure Beta Crude Oil Exchange-Traded Note (OIL – $34.15) – Buy under $24, $80+ target
Energy Fuels (UUUU – $10.70) – Buy under $11, $30 target
Holds
These are holds but not sells – yet. They could get moved back to one of the buy categories if their prices drop or outlook improves, or they could become sell recommendations in the future.
Algernon Pharmaceuticals (AGNPF – $4.65) – Hold for chronic cough results
Antares Pharma (ATRS – $5.56) – Hold for possible higher bid
CohBar (CWBR – $0.27) – Hold for human trials of CB5138-3
Akebia Biotherapeutics (AKBA – $0.54) – Hold for FDA meeting
Apple Computer (AAPL – $165.29) – Hold for 5G iPhones
Publisher: GwynRose LLC, 5348 Vegas Drive, Suite 868, Las Vegas, NV 89108
New World Investor does not act as a personal investment adviser or advocate the purchase or sale of any security or investment for any specific individual. The recommendations and analysis presented to members are for the exclusive use of members. Members should be aware that investment markets have inherent risks and there can be no guarantee of future profits. Likewise, past performance does not assure future results. Recommendations are subject to change at any time. Nothing in this presentation should be considered personalized investment advice. No communication to you by Michael Murphy or any of our employees or contractors should be deemed as personalized investment advice.
Copyright ©GwynRoseLLC 2022
New World Investor Mastermind Group
1. Post unto others as you would have them post unto you.
2. Keep it clean, like a 1950s family television show. Your alter ego can run free on Twitter.
3. NO PERSONAL ATTACKS! If you don’t like the stock, don’t trash the person. Everyone is responsible for their own due diligence and investments.
4. Don’t post here about politics or religion – you aren’t going to change anyone’s mind. Again, NO PERSONAL ATTACKS!
5. The investment implications of something going on in politics or religion is OK.
6. Of course, there’s never a reason to slur someone based on race, religion, gender, sexual orientation, or country of national origin.
7. Please, no snark!
Print This Post
Bingo!!
What’s driving BLPH today?
The Moskva was the flagship of the Black Sea Russian fleet but it was in no way directly contributing to the war except with S300 Antiair systems over southern Ukraine. At 40 years of age it was an old ship ready for retirement. Too early to tell what happened. Certainly not a Ukie antiship missile, that is propaganda bullshit.
Unless there was internal sabotage one hypothesis is a frogmen attack, or Underwater Diversionary Activity, as the ship was 20miles offshore and these kind of operations are usually carried out in the 20 to 50 miles offshore environment. That would explain better the kind of damage as any Ukie Neptune missile would have been detected by the onboard radars and would have hit very low near the waterline not in the cannon ammo magazine.
But it is too early to tell. Besides NATO sigint, IF actual Western operators were involved, it would get us closer to a complete conflagration. Buy your Iodine pills supply.
On a separate issue regarding the Ukraine, the worst Geopolitical/Economic crisis in my lifetime, I had noticed the absence from the limelight of William Burns, head of the CIA and former ambassador to Moscow. I was hoping that was due to a desire to maintain a low profile while working on a back channel to talk to the Russians. Unfortunately, yesterday he showed up to give a speech replete of references to his experiences in Chechnya and the fact that the Russians are committing Genocide. So, no, I was wrong, evidently no back channel. In addition, apparently, when the top brass at the Pentagon tries to call their counterpart at the Ministry of Defense in Moscow, the Russians are NOT picking up the phone. Not good. Buy your Iodine pills today.
The big question now is what will Joe do now. Russia is pushing the envelope with promises of grave responses to the US if we don’t stop supplying Ukraine with war supplies and weapons. It’s a fools game in a war environment to sit on the fence like Joe has done since Russia has began slaughtering civilians(a throw back from WW2 when Hitler, Stalin and the evil axis did the same thing) and then behind the scene supplying Ukraine with weapons. You are either in or out from the beginning. Putin has NO respect for Biden and in fact called him “Fragile “in a public statement not so long ago. Now he has backed himself in a corner again with his latest statement. He either has to back up his threats with some kind of hostility against the US or lose face with the Kremlin and the international community. So, what is Joe going to do now???
Ok from 2016 to 2020 the message was get out of Afghanistan and Iraq, dismantle NATO and be friendly with N. Korea and Russia. In fact, the former guy said Putin was a genius for moving into Ukraine.
Now, all of a sudden we should be not only beefing up NATO, we should be going to war with Russia?
What has changed? Is it the color of the president’s tie?
The attempted occupation of Ukraine will go as well as Russia’s attempted occupation of Afghanistan ( and the US occupation of Iraq and Afghanistan).
Invasions are easy. Occupations are impossible.
Actually, it was about getting countries who pledged to support NATO at a fixed 2% of their respective GDP’s to actually live up to that. As for occupations, dead on…not so much with the orange man bad NATO stuff…might want to check NK and their latest missile launches compared to what took place under Trump…as well as the destruction of the common resort area between SK and NK that NK just decided to blow up without warning…
“Occupations are impossible” True. As France and the US learned in Vietnam, and Russia and the US learned in Afghanistan, the bigger, better-equipped army doesn’t always win. And if you don’t win, you lose and go home. I think Russia learned that lesson, which is why I think Putin will take Donbas and call it a win.
For the sake of the US and world economies, I hope you are a visionary.
MM or anyone have thoughts on the TGTX news today on the voluntary withdrawal of the BLA/sNDA on U2 to treat patients with CLL and SLL? Looks like the 9/28/22 PDUFA date for ublituximab to treat MS patients will determine the fate of the company.
Well, that should stand as the worst-timed addition to the near-term Top 5. I originally recommended TGTX for their MS drug. As the cancer drugs seemed to progress, I raised the target price. So I’m going to cut the target after Monday’s conference call, probably back to the original $25. The stock probably will get cut in half Monday to $4 or so, and will remain a buy for the lower target. I’m glad the market is closed today so no one could buy my ill-timed Top 5 recommendation.
It does beat RSX for speed, if not for brutality. (And yes, I know RSX wasn’t even exactly a recommendation, much less a Top 5, but in a way I found it more jarring.)
TGTX was my ONLY profitable position in NWI bios, except for DNDN and ARNA long ago, but only by trading. TGTX will go to zero if MS is sabotaged by the FDA and Big Pharma schemers.
NO MORE BIOS FROM YOU, please.
The risk for MS is whether U2 or the one U has been tainted by the bad results for CLL/SLL. Even if phase 3 for MS was good, the FDA may now have second thoughts and want more data for MS. Listen to the conference call and read transcript.
Well, how was today’s TGTX conference call? In the MS trials, efficacy was better than the comparator drug, but serious adverse events were higher. How is the FDA going to balance the good and the bad on 9/28/22? Another binary call, with either Zero or the teens on 9/29. Bad proposition. I find the comments by the TGTX shill neurologist, Dr. Lawrence Steinman glib and superficial. The main attraction of Ubli is the shorter infusion time of 1 hour vs the established alternative of 5 hours, every 6 months. He said the teacher with MS won’t want to take a day off every 6 months and would opt for the 1 hour drug. Come on, not if there is a greater risk of serious adverse events.
Since most people that read this newsletter want investment ideas, here’s my WW3 portfolio:
GDX, GDXJ, SA, SLV, AG, WEAT, IPI, URA, UUUU, ABBV, Cash, SDOW, TZA
It is doing well, but who cares if we are gonna get a Nuke Winter, right?
Nuke winter will crash everything in the market but I’m not that skeptical.
The other day the US Treasury Secretary, Janet Yellen, threatened China with sanctions. Not to be outdone, Sen. Marco Rubio has his own ideas on how to finish off once and for all the Global Economy. (Martin Armstrong spent 10 years in jail BUT he is not an ex-con as he was there for “Contempt of Court”).
Buy your Iodine Pills supply today.
Marco Rubio Preparing to Join Biden in Destroying the World Economy | Armstrong Economics
MM, Is there any catalyst that BLPH could announce between now and May 17th that will move the share price significantly? The reason I’m asking this is because there are several warrants that will expire worthless that many execs of the company bought during the last few offerings around $10-$14.
I don’t know of anything coming near-term.
MM, What’s the deal with MDNA? We hit another 52 week low of $1.13. The news about MDNA11 has been all positive lately. Also, why are they having such a hard time partnering MDNA55 if the results are so good?
Wall Street is wondering “…why are they having such a hard time partnering MDNA55 if the results are so good?” So am I.
There are so many competing therapies for cancer, autoimmune disease, that any one claiming to be best will get egg on its face. Big pharma is cautious about everything. Even AC5 of ARTH really IS the best for wound care, but no potential partner has surfaced.
What is absolutely mind boggling is the aggressive response of the Chinese to Yellen’s threats by several political and, notably, military Chinese officials concurrent with massive aero-naval exercises in Taiwan’s proximity. It is not so much the gravity of the current Geopolitical shitstorm, it is the incredible speed at which it is happening.
Biden Administration dealing with a 2nd Front soon??
Buy lots of Iodine pills.
Buy Gold and Silver coins and MREs. Stock on water etc.
If your predictions come true your Iodine pills and gold won’t do you much good. Buy a pistol.
Turn off the news.
That too.
Agree on the news.
Though one last observation. Everybody cheers the sinking of the Moskva. I am neutral but the problem with this one is that I hope it was sabotage or a floating mine that destroyed it.
While it is good for the Ukrainian morale if their barely tested Neptune home grown missiles sank it is also VERY CLEAR that they hit their target thanks to NATO/CIA sigint. If true that would represent a US/NATO direct involvement in the conflict beyond the mere shipping of weapons.
El Capitan Nemo. Interesting take but my experience with NATO ops per se, is not much to be admired. As such, an individual op like the Brits or Turkey, maybe not including our deep spook state, would not trigger anything, Sunken ship is a sunken ship and that’s good for Z’s folks and morale. JMHO
TGTX
Yes, the efficacy is better with ublituximab, but the serious adverse event rate was over 8% vs the other drug’s 6%. Since the FDA messed up with side effects in the dialysis arm for SCYX’s vadustat, they may be overzealous with the side effects of ubli as well, request more studies for side effects or just outright reject the MS application.
Don Galamaga’s hem/onc contacts are impressed with the efficacy of ubli, but I will tell you that onco people have to be optimists in a field of terrible prognoses for cancer (and terminal diseases like MS as well), and tend to downplay side effects when there aren’t many effective drugs. But the FDA is lawsuit conscious, and could easily reject this based on higher rates of serious side effects.
How do you balance the good and bad of efficacy and serious adverse events, respectively? This is not a scientific question–it is a political guess about the capricious FDA.
TG Therapeutics: I May Double Down Again
Ditto’s Michael Murphy. My Hematology oncology friends are very impressed with their technology and that area is really tough with trial increments. Hence with continued efficacy in MS progress and the pipeline plus revenues, from one major, this is a real bargain, IMHO
Don, ask your hem/onco friends about what I wrote just above. What is their experience with the FDA for the many drugs they have seen approved or rejected? Thanks.
Fda update warns about genetic testing from company’s like nvta and few others dealing with prenatal testing being wrong we just can’t catch a break on these biotechs,any input would be appreciated MM,was posted on td amer from benzinga
They do everything they can to drive the share price in ground,unbelievable
Most startups that continue to lose money will continue their death spiral. Management could care less as they continue to collect their bloated salaries. I don’t care about the jolly stories, which in reality are designed to suck in investors. Management knows the dismal odds of success, so it is safer for THEM to collect salaries and scam the retail investors. Don’t invest in these companies. I am learning this lesson, but better late than never.
Thanks. My question centers on how the FDA balances benefits and risks in the decision to approve a drug. For TGTX’s ublituximab, there is much enthusiasm for the better efficacy than the competition, but the risk of serious adverse reactions is greater. In a rare happening, MM’s projection of $4 on Mon was more pessimistic than the actual trading, and today the stock did very well, probably based on the good efficacy and the high expectation of approval for MS on 9/28/22.
MM–please address the history of FDA behavior from your experience, regarding benefits and risks.
The old FDA used a two level staging – advisors then the FDA panels themselves. There was a lot of personal bias and games on how a firm with a product stood and the barriers stalling them from a fair deal. I even remember when one of the FDA voters at a meeting asked “What am I doing here” Remember, the FDA has a lot of employees that came from industry and will go back there.
There were a lot of cases where pulling the rug under an offering was common.
A lot of their meetings were available on line
I wonder if things have changed today……
@Michael Murphy, will The Tesla results give him and us a new momentum for the public square of more balanced exchange and investment analysis in many fields, rather than the agenda driven ESG distortions of Adam Smith? Cathie Wood must be pleased
MM. What did I tell you about Cathie Wood? She is a stock wrecker!! She added to both NVTA and VLD recently. Look how those two have been CLUBBED! NVTA and VLD will not go up until she is out. She may be the worst money manager of ALL TIME! Proof look at PLTR. She sold that stock at the dead ass low near 9. It is currently near 13. Just saying…
SCYNEXIS Highlights Launch Of Common Stock Offering, No Size Disclosed.
I thought these guys had enough money to get well into 2023. Now trading below $3 after hours
They know that script numbers are basically flat. They will continue to mount staggering losses, mainly due to management bloated salaries for doing little. Another ARTH–plunging stock price in a death spiral. If they wait another 6 months, the offering price will be below $2 instead of below $3 today. I predicted all this.
The new Radar Report for 4.21.22 is posted.