Author Archives: Michael Murphy

New World Investor- 8.6.26

06
Aug 26
Dear New World Investor: The Fed held rates unchanged at 3.50%-3.75% for the fifth straight meeting, with three dissents wanting a quarter-point increase. Under new Chairman Warsh’s regime, the number of dissents is the best indicator of potential Fed policy changes. According to the CME Fed Watch tool, the...

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New World Investor – 7.23.26

23
Jul 26
Dear New World Investor: As I expected, the June Consumer Price Index fell 0.4% from May, thanks to falling gasoline prices (in turn, thanks to falling oil prices). That was the largest single-month decline since April 2020. The CPI was up 3.5% year-over-year, the lowest yearly reading since March....

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New World Investor – 5.28.26

28
May 26
Dear New World Investor: (Sung to the tune of My Boyfriend’s Back by the Angels, 1963) Inflation’s back, and there’s gonna be trouble (Hey-la, hey-la, inflation’s back) Better buy it quick, ’cause the price is gonna double (Hey-la, hey-la, inflation’s back) Today’s Personal Consumption Expenditures Index (PCE) was both...

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New World Investor – 4.2.26

02
Apr 26
Dear New World Investor: The S&P 500 fell 4.6% in the March quarter, its weakest first quarter performance since 2022. In addition to the negative of high oil and gasoline prices today outweighing the positive – at least in the market’s mind – of not having Iran blow us...

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New World Investor – 3.5.26

06
Mar 26
Dear New World Investor: Well, that got weird in a hurry. Iran striking its regional neighbors was not on my dance card, and obviously is a massively escalation. It puts a lot of oil infrastructure at risk and makes private insurance on ships going through the Strait of Hormuz...

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New World Investor – 12.24.25

24
Dec 25
Dear New World Investor: Right now, it’s jobs, jobs, jobs and inflation, inflation, inflation. Jobs: US nonfarm payrolls rose by 64,000 in November. That wasn’t much, but it was higher than the 45,000 jobs Wall Street expected, and up from October’s sharp decline of 105,000 jobs, It was probably...

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New World Investor – 12.11.25

11
Dec 25
Dear New World Investor: Surprise! – not. The Fed cut the funds rate another 25 basis points (bps, or ¼ of 1%), bringing it down to 3.50%–3.75% after a relatively calm inflation report and relatively weak employment reports. It was their third cut this year and 1.75% in...

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New World Investor – 11.26.25

26
Nov 25
Dear New World Investor: The headline September payrolls report claimed the US added 119,000 jobs in September. That’s (A) more than double the consensus estimate for +50,000; (B) more than 5x August’s originally reported +22,000; (C) a positive number following August’s -26,000 revision to minus 4,000; and (D) probably...

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New World Investor – 11.13.25

13
Nov 25
Dear New World Investor: According to Bloomberg, the Fed is stopping their Quantitative Tightening in December and beginning Quantitative Easing, apparently because they are worried about the labor market. They described it as a technical maneuver and Chairman Powell cautioned that “…at a certain point, you’ll want reserves to...

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New World Investor – 10.30.25

31
Oct 25
Dear New World Investor: The shutdown-delayed September Consumer Price Index rose 3% year over year, up a tenth from 2.9% in August but slightly below consensus expectations for a 3.1% increase. It was the highest reading since May, but much of the gain was in food, gasoline, and energy....

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