Author Archives: Michael Murphy

New World Investor – 10.1.26

01
Oct 26
Dear New World Investor: The third estimate of June quarter real GDP growth was raised an unusually large amount from +1.5% to +2.2%, and the March quarter was revised up from +2.1% to +2.5%. The 30-year Treasury yield hit its highest level since 2004, the 19-year hit its highest...

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New World Investor – 9.17.26

17
Sep 26
Dear New World Investor: Well, I was wrong. The Fed raised interest rates by 25 basis points (1/4 of 1%) to a target range of 3.75%-4.00%, and hinted at another rate hike in 2026. The Fed raised interest rates to fight an inflation it cannot fix with interest rates,...

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New World Investor – 9.9.26

09
Sep 26
Dear New World Investor: You deserve to know what’s going on. First, the Microsoft Windows update that crashed and bricked my new Lenovo desktop computer had some interesting twists. Every time I restarted it would randomly seize control. Then it disappeared my Google Chrome browser with all my passwords...

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New World Investor – 8.20.26

20
Aug 26
Dear New World Investor: The US Treasury began buying back long-term bonds in 2024. They capped each buyback at $2 billion – much too small to affect long-term yields in a $30 trillion Treasury market. So why did they do it? Because their goal wasn’t to lift bond prices,...

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New World Investor- 8.6.26

06
Aug 26
Dear New World Investor: The Fed held rates unchanged at 3.50%-3.75% for the fifth straight meeting, with three dissents wanting a quarter-point increase. Under new Chairman Warsh’s regime, the number of dissents is the best indicator of potential Fed policy changes. According to the CME Fed Watch tool, the...

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New World Investor – 7.23.26

23
Jul 26
Dear New World Investor: As I expected, the June Consumer Price Index fell 0.4% from May, thanks to falling gasoline prices (in turn, thanks to falling oil prices). That was the largest single-month decline since April 2020. The CPI was up 3.5% year-over-year, the lowest yearly reading since March....

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New World Investor – 5.28.26

28
May 26
Dear New World Investor: (Sung to the tune of My Boyfriend’s Back by the Angels, 1963) Inflation’s back, and there’s gonna be trouble (Hey-la, hey-la, inflation’s back) Better buy it quick, ’cause the price is gonna double (Hey-la, hey-la, inflation’s back) Today’s Personal Consumption Expenditures Index (PCE) was both...

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New World Investor – 4.2.26

02
Apr 26
Dear New World Investor: The S&P 500 fell 4.6% in the March quarter, its weakest first quarter performance since 2022. In addition to the negative of high oil and gasoline prices today outweighing the positive – at least in the market’s mind – of not having Iran blow us...

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New World Investor – 3.5.26

06
Mar 26
Dear New World Investor: Well, that got weird in a hurry. Iran striking its regional neighbors was not on my dance card, and obviously is a massively escalation. It puts a lot of oil infrastructure at risk and makes private insurance on ships going through the Strait of Hormuz...

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New World Investor – 12.24.25

24
Dec 25
Dear New World Investor: Right now, it’s jobs, jobs, jobs and inflation, inflation, inflation. Jobs: US nonfarm payrolls rose by 64,000 in November. That wasn’t much, but it was higher than the 45,000 jobs Wall Street expected, and up from October’s sharp decline of 105,000 jobs, It was probably...

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