Author Archives: Michael Murphy

New World Investor – 3.5.26

06
Mar 26
Dear New World Investor: Well, that got weird in a hurry. Iran striking its regional neighbors was not on my dance card, and obviously is a massively escalation. It puts a lot of oil infrastructure at risk and makes private insurance on ships going through the Strait of Hormuz...

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New World Investor – 12.24.25

24
Dec 25
Dear New World Investor: Right now, it’s jobs, jobs, jobs and inflation, inflation, inflation. Jobs: US nonfarm payrolls rose by 64,000 in November. That wasn’t much, but it was higher than the 45,000 jobs Wall Street expected, and up from October’s sharp decline of 105,000 jobs, It was probably...

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New World Investor – 12.11.25

11
Dec 25
Dear New World Investor: Surprise! – not. The Fed cut the funds rate another 25 basis points (bps, or ¼ of 1%), bringing it down to 3.50%–3.75% after a relatively calm inflation report and relatively weak employment reports. It was their third cut this year and 1.75% in...

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New World Investor – 11.26.25

26
Nov 25
Dear New World Investor: The headline September payrolls report claimed the US added 119,000 jobs in September. That’s (A) more than double the consensus estimate for +50,000; (B) more than 5x August’s originally reported +22,000; (C) a positive number following August’s -26,000 revision to minus 4,000; and (D) probably...

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New World Investor – 11.13.25

13
Nov 25
Dear New World Investor: According to Bloomberg, the Fed is stopping their Quantitative Tightening in December and beginning Quantitative Easing, apparently because they are worried about the labor market. They described it as a technical maneuver and Chairman Powell cautioned that “…at a certain point, you’ll want reserves to...

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New World Investor – 10.30.25

31
Oct 25
Dear New World Investor: The shutdown-delayed September Consumer Price Index rose 3% year over year, up a tenth from 2.9% in August but slightly below consensus expectations for a 3.1% increase. It was the highest reading since May, but much of the gain was in food, gasoline, and energy....

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Flash Alert – Akebia (AKBA) – 10.29.25

29
Oct 25
Akebia Therapeutics (AKBA) announced this morning that in their Type C meeting with the FDA, they learned that the Agency would require “a significantly larger number of patients than proposed, and accordingly would require meaningfully more time and cost to complete.” Therefore, they are not going to pursue a...

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New World Investor – 10.16.25

16
Oct 25
Dear New World Investor: We’ve made a lot of money by being early to the AI boom, and there may be many months or even years to go. But I have two big problems with the current speculation. First, you have to realize that the current Large Language Models...

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New World Investor – 10.2.25

02
Oct 25
Dear New World Investor: Richard Russell wrote his Dow Theory Forecasts until he died at 91 years old. I’ve always planned to write New World Investor longer, but I realized last week it may be as an every-other-week or even monthly letter instead of the grueling weekly schedule I’ve...

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New World Investor – 9.18.25

18
Sep 25
Dear New World Investor: First up, I am overwhelmed with our move and starting our natural burial cemetery, so without many events for the next two weeks and the Fed done, I am going to schedule another two-week interval for New World Investor. The next issue will be...

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