Author Archives: Michael Murphy

New World Investor – 12.11.25

11
Dec 25
Dear New World Investor: Surprise! – not. The Fed cut the funds rate another 25 basis points (bps, or ¼ of 1%), bringing it down to 3.50%–3.75% after a relatively calm inflation report and relatively weak employment reports. It was their third cut this year and 1.75% in...

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New World Investor – 11.26.25

26
Nov 25
Dear New World Investor: The headline September payrolls report claimed the US added 119,000 jobs in September. That’s (A) more than double the consensus estimate for +50,000; (B) more than 5x August’s originally reported +22,000; (C) a positive number following August’s -26,000 revision to minus 4,000; and (D) probably...

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New World Investor – 11.13.25

13
Nov 25
Dear New World Investor: According to Bloomberg, the Fed is stopping their Quantitative Tightening in December and beginning Quantitative Easing, apparently because they are worried about the labor market. They described it as a technical maneuver and Chairman Powell cautioned that “…at a certain point, you’ll want reserves to...

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New World Investor – 10.30.25

31
Oct 25
Dear New World Investor: The shutdown-delayed September Consumer Price Index rose 3% year over year, up a tenth from 2.9% in August but slightly below consensus expectations for a 3.1% increase. It was the highest reading since May, but much of the gain was in food, gasoline, and energy....

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Flash Alert – Akebia (AKBA) – 10.29.25

29
Oct 25
Akebia Therapeutics (AKBA) announced this morning that in their Type C meeting with the FDA, they learned that the Agency would require “a significantly larger number of patients than proposed, and accordingly would require meaningfully more time and cost to complete.” Therefore, they are not going to pursue a...

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New World Investor – 10.16.25

16
Oct 25
Dear New World Investor: We’ve made a lot of money by being early to the AI boom, and there may be many months or even years to go. But I have two big problems with the current speculation. First, you have to realize that the current Large Language Models...

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New World Investor – 10.2.25

02
Oct 25
Dear New World Investor: Richard Russell wrote his Dow Theory Forecasts until he died at 91 years old. I’ve always planned to write New World Investor longer, but I realized last week it may be as an every-other-week or even monthly letter instead of the grueling weekly schedule I’ve...

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New World Investor – 9.18.25

18
Sep 25
Dear New World Investor: First up, I am overwhelmed with our move and starting our natural burial cemetery, so without many events for the next two weeks and the Fed done, I am going to schedule another two-week interval for New World Investor. The next issue will be...

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New World Investor – 9.11.25

11
Sep 25
Dear New World Investor: Once a year, the Bureau of Labor Statistics benchmarks the March payrolls level to a more accurate but less timely data source called the Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages, which is based on state unemployment insurance tax records and covers nearly all US jobs....

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New World Investor – 9.4.25

04
Sep 25
Dear New World Investor: Last Friday’s Personal Consumption Expenditures Index was pretty much a nothingburger. Prices rose 2.5% year-over-year, the same as June despite President Trump’s broad-based tariffs. The month-over-month increase was 0.2%, down from 0.3% in June. The year-over-year core PCE ticked up from +2.8% in June to...

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