Author Archives: Michael Murphy

New World Investor – 8.7.25

07
Aug 25
Dear New World Investor: Last Friday’s July payrolls report showed only 73,000 new nonfarm jobs added, much less than the 104,000 expected. That was the lowest number in 10 months and much less than June’s originally reported 147,000 jobs. Click for larger graphic h/t Yahoo Finance As you know,...

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New World Investor – 7.31.25

31
Jul 25
Dear New World Investor: June quarter real GDP was reported Wednesday morning up +3.0%, above the +2.6% consensus. Click for larger graphic h/t Yahoo Finance I’ve been talking about this “surprising” strength for weeks, so I hope you weren’t surprised by that – Fed Chairman Powell certainly wasn’t. The...

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New World Investor – 7.24.25

24
Jul 25
Dear New World Investor: At the top of each Friday’s Boomberg on Substack I repeat an important note: “Stocks peak about every 36 years, most recently in 1929, 1965, and 2000. This 36-year cycle can be traced all the way back to the earliest eras in recorded human history,...

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New World Investor – 7.17.25

17
Jul 25
Dear New World Investor: Tuesday’s headline Consumer Price Index for June was 2.7% year-over-year, an uptick from May’s 2.4% and a tenth above the consensus expectation for 2.6%. The month-over-month increase was 0.3%, also an uptick from May’s 0.1%. The acceleration was widely attributed to President Trump’s tariffs, but...

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New World Investor – 7.10.25

10
Jul 25
Dear New World Investor: It’s the dog days of summer. There are a couple of biotech conferences coming up next week, but not much else happening until Corning and PayPal report June quarter earnings on July 29. Then the floodgates open with earnings reports through August – not to...

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New World Investor – 7.3.25

03
Jul 25
Dear New World Investor: Last Friday’s May Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index increased 2.3% year-over-year, a slight uptick from April’s 2.2%. The month-over-month increase from April was 0.1%. The Fed’s favorite inflation indicator, the core PCE that excludes changes in food and energy prices, was up 2.7% year-over-year. Both...

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New World Investor – 6.26.25

26
Jun 25
Dear New World Investor: Last September 16, CareerBuilder and Monster merged. The CEO said: “The combination of CareerBuilder and Monster brings together two strong, trusted, complementary brands to create a job board with greater scale and reach.” On Tuesday, a short nine months later, the merged company filed for...

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New World Investor – 6.19.25

19
Jun 25
Dear New World Investor: Well, you all just set a personal best – consecutive Fed days without panicking – as Chairman Powell et. al. held interest rates steady Wednesday at 4.25%-4.50% for the fourth meeting in a row since last cutting in December. They kept their projection for two...

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New World Investor – 6.12.25

12
Jun 25
Dear New World Investor: May’s nonfarm payrolls jobs report showed the US economy added 139,000 jobs, more than the consensus expectation for 126,000. The unemployment rate held steady at 4.2%. The April number was revised down from 177,000 to 147,000. So in spite of President Trump’s tariff volatility, the...

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New World Investor – 6.5.25

05
Jun 25
Dear New World Investor: As you know, the core Personal Consumption Expenditures Index (PCE) strips out the volatile food and energy components from the headline PCE price index to provide a clearer picture of underlying inflation trends. I refer to the core PCE as the Fed’s favorite inflation indicator,...

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