Author Archives: Michael Murphy

New World Investor – 9.11.25

11
Sep 25
Dear New World Investor: Once a year, the Bureau of Labor Statistics benchmarks the March payrolls level to a more accurate but less timely data source called the Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages, which is based on state unemployment insurance tax records and covers nearly all US jobs....

Read More »

New World Investor – 9.4.25

04
Sep 25
Dear New World Investor: Last Friday’s Personal Consumption Expenditures Index was pretty much a nothingburger. Prices rose 2.5% year-over-year, the same as June despite President Trump’s broad-based tariffs. The month-over-month increase was 0.2%, down from 0.3% in June. The year-over-year core PCE ticked up from +2.8% in June to...

Read More »

New World Investor – 8.28.25

28
Aug 25
Dear New World Investor: Change is in the air. At Fed Chairman Powell’s final Jackson Hole Economic Symposium speech, he said: “Overall, while the labor market appears to be in balance, it is a curious kind of balance that results from a marked slowing in both the supply of...

Read More »

New World Investor – 8.14.25

14
Aug 25
Dear New World Investor: NO ISSUE NEXT WEEK! You can call it summer vacation, but we call it finally moving to our Cathedral Trees Sanctuary natural burial ground. July’s Consumer Price Index had either something for everyone or nothing for anyone, depending on your bias. The headline year-over-year number...

Read More »

New World Investor – 8.7.25

07
Aug 25
Dear New World Investor: Last Friday’s July payrolls report showed only 73,000 new nonfarm jobs added, much less than the 104,000 expected. That was the lowest number in 10 months and much less than June’s originally reported 147,000 jobs. Click for larger graphic h/t Yahoo Finance As you know,...

Read More »

New World Investor – 7.31.25

31
Jul 25
Dear New World Investor: June quarter real GDP was reported Wednesday morning up +3.0%, above the +2.6% consensus. Click for larger graphic h/t Yahoo Finance I’ve been talking about this “surprising” strength for weeks, so I hope you weren’t surprised by that – Fed Chairman Powell certainly wasn’t. The...

Read More »

New World Investor – 7.24.25

24
Jul 25
Dear New World Investor: At the top of each Friday’s Boomberg on Substack I repeat an important note: “Stocks peak about every 36 years, most recently in 1929, 1965, and 2000. This 36-year cycle can be traced all the way back to the earliest eras in recorded human history,...

Read More »

New World Investor – 7.17.25

17
Jul 25
Dear New World Investor: Tuesday’s headline Consumer Price Index for June was 2.7% year-over-year, an uptick from May’s 2.4% and a tenth above the consensus expectation for 2.6%. The month-over-month increase was 0.3%, also an uptick from May’s 0.1%. The acceleration was widely attributed to President Trump’s tariffs, but...

Read More »

New World Investor – 7.10.25

10
Jul 25
Dear New World Investor: It’s the dog days of summer. There are a couple of biotech conferences coming up next week, but not much else happening until Corning and PayPal report June quarter earnings on July 29. Then the floodgates open with earnings reports through August – not to...

Read More »

New World Investor – 7.3.25

03
Jul 25
Dear New World Investor: Last Friday’s May Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index increased 2.3% year-over-year, a slight uptick from April’s 2.2%. The month-over-month increase from April was 0.1%. The Fed’s favorite inflation indicator, the core PCE that excludes changes in food and energy prices, was up 2.7% year-over-year. Both...

Read More »