Dear New World Investor:

Today is the 80^th anniversary of VE Day – Victory in Europe at the end of World War II. The day celebrates the formal acceptance by the Allies of Germany’s unconditional surrender of its armed forces and military operations on Tuesday, 8 May 1945. About four months later, Japan signed its surrender documents and my dad came home from 3 ½ years in the Navy. After he’d been home a couple of weeks, I impatiently asked my mom: “When is he going to leave?”

President Trump and many investors seem to be asking: “When is he going to cut?” Fed Chairman Powell is trying to walk (and not fall off) a tightrope with stubborn and maybe increasing inflation on one side and a weakening economy and maybe increasing unemployment on the other. Last week’s negative GDP print was kinda balanced by Friday’s payrolls report with a headline gain of 177,000 jobs and a flat 4.2% unemployment rate, so to no one’s surprise on Wednesday the Fed held the funds rate flat.

The March quarter earnings season has seen a surge in buyback announcements to a record high.

Click for larger graphic h/t @WinfieldSmart

Market Outlook

The S&P 500 added 1.1% since last Thursday as the Index came off of its best (and unloved) winning streak in 20 years, which erased all of its Liberation Day losses. The 500 still is down 3.7% year-to-date. The Nasdaq Composite gained 1.2% as the AI trade continued to recover (see META, NVDA, PLTR, etc.). It is down 7.2% for the year. The SPDR S&P Biotech Exchange-Traded Fund (XBI) fell 5.4% on unfounded fears that the FDA is about to screw things up. It is deep in the hole year-to-date, down 13.3%. The small-cap Russell 2000 jumped 2.6% and is down 9.1% in 2025.

The fractal dimension reads a nearly unchanged week with volatile daily moves up and down as more consolidation. It is moving steadily towards full consolidation of the Tariff Tantrum decline. Another two or three positive weeks would set us up for another trend.

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Top 5

Changes this week: None

Near-Term – chronological order
AKBA Akebia Therapeutics – Vafseo launch
SCYX – ScyNexis – Announce resolution of the manufacturing problem, lifting of clinical hold, restart of MARIO trial, maybe GSK files for hospital use approval
EQT EQT –natural gas price rebound
USL United States 12 Month Oil Fund, LP – crude should rise quickly
FCX Freeport McMoRan – copper shortage

Long-Term – alphabetical order
ABCL AbCelllera – Will become a huge pharma royalty company
UUUU Energy Focus – Domestic uranium supplier
EQT EQT – largest US natural gas company
IBIT iShares Bitcoin Trust – Bitcoin is headed for $150,000
META Meta – a (the?) leader in the metaverse
PLTR Palantir – a (the?) leader in AI applications software
RKLB Rocket Lab – #2 to SpaceX in space
SCYX ScyNexis –First new antifungal in 20 years

Economy

The Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow model early estimate for June quarter real Gross Domestic Product growth is +2.3% as wholesalers build inventories in advance of tariffs. That’s above the Blue Chip economists at +0.9%. They were estimating too high for the March quarter, and now they’re too low. That provides support for future stock prices.

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Coming Events
All times below are ET, and most presentations and slides are archived on the companies’ websites so you can listen to them.

Friday, May 9
Short Interest – After the close

Monday, May 12
EDIT – Editas – Unspec. – Earnings release, no call
RDW – Redwire – 9:00am – Earnings conference call
RKLB – Rocket Lab – 9:00am – Needham Technology, Media, & Consumer Conference

Tuesday, May 13
EDIT – Editas – Through 5/17 – One oral and four poster presentations at the American Society of Gene and Cell Therapy (ASGCT) annual meeting
INO – Inovio – Unspec. – Poster on INO-3107 at American Society of Gene and Cell Therapy
SFTBY – Softbank – 3:30am – Earnings conference call
Consumer Price Index – 8:30am
CDE – Coeur Mining – 9:00am – Annual meeting
GILD – Gilead Sciences -2:20pm – BofA Healthcare Conference
INO – Inovio – 4:30pm – Earnings conference call
QUIK – QuickLogic – 5:30pm – Earnings conference call
EDIT – Editas – 8:15pm – Bank of America Global Healthcare Conference

Wednesday, May 14
MU – Micron – 8:40am – JPMorgan Global Technology, Media, and Communications Conference
PYPL – PayPal – also 8:40am – JPMorgan Global Technology, Media, and Communications Conference
GLW – Corning – 9:20am – JPMorgan Global Technology, Media, and Communications Conference

Thursday, May 15
INO – Inovio – Unspec. – Oral presentation on INO-3107 at the
American Broncho-Esophagological Association Combined Otolaryngology Spring Meetings

Big Tech: The Biotech & Digital Dominators MegaShift
There are at least four ways to make money in the stocks of these large, growing, dominant companies. You can:
* * Buy a stock and hold it
* * Buy a stock and write a call option against it
* * With a Level IV options account, write an out-of-the-money put option
* * With a Level IV options account, write an out-of-the-money put option and use part of the premium to buy an out-of-the-money call option

Gilead Sciences (GILD – $98.16) held their annual meeting and announced $11 billion in capital and operational investments in the US to supplement their already planned spending of $21 billion in domestic manufacturing and R&D through 2030.

They made multiple presentations at the European Association for the Study of the Liver (EASL) Congress. New data from multiple analyses reinforced that Livdelzi (seladelpar) is effective and generally well-tolerated for the treatment of primary biliary cholangitis (PBC). It also provides sustained biochemical response in adults with PBC regardless of prior treatment history. Another analysis showed that Livdelzi delivered clinically and statistically significant improvements in pruritus.

Final results from their pivotal Phase 3 trial of bulevirtide for chronic hepatitis delta virus (HDV) showed that 36% (23 of 64) of adults maintained virologic suppression for almost two years after stopping treatment, Treatment was stopped after a patient achieved undetectable HDV RNA. In participants who sustained undetectability for one year after the end of their therapy, no relapses occurred in the second year of follow-up.

In addition, sustained post-treatment undetectable HDV RNA was more frequent in participants with longer on-treatment HDV RNA undetectability at the end of their treatment: 90% (9/10) of those who had HDV RNA undetectability for ≥ 96 weeks at end of treatment remained HDV undetectable off-treatment. That will encourage doctors to continue bulevirtide treatment even after the patient is “cured.”

Gilead has scheduled a major brokerage firm presentation each of the next five weeks, starting with Tuesday’s BofA Healthcare Conference. GILD is a Long-Term Buy under $90 for a first target of $120.

Nvidia (NVDA – $117.37) is a must-own stock. Venture capitalist David Sacks explained his prediction that AI will inprove 1,000,000x in four years. He said: “ I would say the rate of progress is exponential right now on at least three key dimensions.”

1) The models: “So number one is the algorithms themselves. The models are improving at a rate of, I don’t know, 3x-4x a year. They’re not just getting faster and better, but qualitatively they’re different. Remember, we started with pure LLM chatbots. Then we went to reasoning models. We didn’t even get to the agents part of it yet, but that’s the next big leap after reasoning models. We’re just starting to scratch the surface there.”

2) The semiconductors: “Then you’ve got the chips. Depending on how you measure it, each generation of chips is probably 3x-4x better than the last. It’s not just the individual chips that are getting better, they’re figuring out how to network them together. Like with NVL72, it’s like a rack system to create much better performance at the datacenter level.”

3) The computing power: “And that would be the third area where you’re seeing basically exponential progress. Just look at the number of GPUs that are being deployed in datacenters. So when Elon first started training Grok, I think they had maybe 100,000 GPUs. Now they’re up to 300,000. They’re on their way to a million. Same thing with OpenAI’s data center, Stargate. And within a couple years they’ll be at, I don’t know, 5 million GPUs, 10 million GPUs?” [Mostly made by Nvidia]

How Sacks gets to 1,000,000x: “The algorithms, the chips, and the datacenters are all improving or scaling at a rate of 3x-4x a year. That’s 10x every two years. Where people don’t understand exponential progress is that if you’re getting better at 10x every two years, that doesn’t mean you’ll be at 20x in four years. It means you’ll be at a 100x. So you multiply those things together: the algorithms, the chips, and the raw compute that’s available. 100x models x 100x chips x 100x compute = 1,000,000x AI You’re talking about 1,000,000x increase. Some of which will be captured in price reductions, some of it will be in the performance ceiling, and then some of it will just be in the overall amount of AI compute that’s available to the economy. But the impact of this thing is gonna be absolutely massive. And I think people still don’t even appreciate that fact because they don’t understand exponential progress.”

CEO Jensen Huang did an interview at the Milken Institute Global Conference:

and another at the Hill & Valley Forum on how AI factories will rebuild our industrial power by returning manufacturing to the US:

NVDA is a Buy under $125 for a $180 first target.

Onsemi (ON – $39.77) reported a double beat for the March quarter before the open on Monday, raised guidance, and saw the stock decline 8.35%. Revenues fell 22.0% from last year to $1.45 billion, but that was just above the consensus estimate for $1.40 billion. They earned 55¢ a share pro forma, above the 50¢ consensus. Cash from operations hit $602 million and free cash flow was up 72% year-over-year to $455 million or a healthy 31% of revenues. About 2/3 of the free cash flow was returned to shareholders through stock buybacks.

On the conference call (AUDIO HERE and TRANSCRIPT HERE), CEO Hassane El-Khoury guided the June quarter sequentially flat to $1.40 to $1.50 billion in revenue with pro forma earnings of 48¢ to 58¢. Both were above the consensus for $1.40 billion and 51¢.

Hassane said: “Our results in the first quarter reflect the disciplined approach we have maintained through this downturn – managing our cost structure, right-sizing our manufacturing footprint, and rationalizing our portfolio – enabling us to generate increased free cash flow. We are committed to long-term value creation and we are accelerating our capital return to shareholders while investing in our future growth. We continue to see strong design win momentum, driven by the industry-leading performance of our products and have secured key wins with major global customers across all end-markets.”

The year-over-year revenue decline caused the computer bots to sell, even though it was expected. Onsemi will snap back rapidly as the global economy improves, so take advantage of this transient dip to Buy ON under $60 for a $100 first target.

Palantir (PLTR – $119.15) reported March quarter revenues up 39% from last year to $884 million, including 55% year-over-year US revenue growth to $628 million, and above Wall Street’s estimate for $863 million.

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As CEO Alex Karp wrote: “This is a level of surging and ferocious growth that would be spectacular for a company a tenth of our size. At this scale, however, our ascent is, we believe, unparalleled…The rush towards large language models, as well as the foundational software architecture that is capable of making them valuable to large organizations, has turned into a stampede.”

They earned 13¢ a share pro forma, in line with the consensus.

On the conference call (AUDIO HERE and SLIDES HERE and PRESIDENT’S LETTER HERE and TRANSCRIPT HERE), Alex raised their fiscal year 2025 revenue guidance from $3.74-$3.76 billion to to $3.890-$3.902 billion, 36% year-over-year growth and above Wall Street’s consensus for $3.75 billion. That included a raise in US commercial revenue growth from “more than $1.08 billion” to “in excess of $1.178 billion,” a growth rate of at least 68%. That crushed consensus expectations. They raised their adjusted free cash flow guidance to between $1.6-$1.8 billion. They continue to expect positive GAAP operating income and net income in each quarter of this year.

Alex said: “We are in the middle of a tectonic shift in the adoption of our software, particularly in the US where our revenue soared 55% year-over-year, while our US commercial revenue expanded 71% year-over-year in the first quarter [to $255 million vs. the Street’s estimate of $239 million] to surpass a one-billion-dollar annual run rate. We are delivering the operating system for the modern enterprise in the era of AI.”

During the quarter, they closed 139 deals of at least $1 million, including 51 deals of at least $5 million, which included 31 deals of at least $10 million. They booked their highest quarter of US commercial total contract value ever of $810 million, up 183% year-over-year.

After big US government contractors like Accenture and IBM warned of a possible hit to their businesses from cost-cutting efforts by the Department of Government Efficiency, I had to love what CFO David Glazer told Reuters: “Focus on efficiency is excellent for Palantir. We very much support a push by the US government to push on efficiency across the government.”

Alex and TWG Global co-chairman Thomas Tull talked about their new collaboration with xAI to redefine financial services through enterprise AI:

In the quarter, Palantir had cash from operations of $310 million and adjusted free cash flow of $370 million, representing a 42% margin. The company finished the quarter with $5.4 billion in cash. PLTR is a Buy under $100 for a $150 target. Unless, of course, you buy BTIG Chief Market Technician Jonathan Krinsky’s comment that Palantir’s stock price chart is showing a “classic double top.” In that case, you can just miss it.

Alex did an interview at the Hill & Valley Forum that was interrupted by a protester at 4 minutes and 30 seconds. Don’t miss his 6 minute response on free speech and discourse.

PayPal Holdings (PYPL – $70.48) held their Dev Days conference for developers. Agentic commerce is the use of AI to transact on behalf of a customer or business. Developers worldwide are moving quickly to create new, powerful AI experiences. PayPal is a leader in this revolution by providing developers and merchants with innovative tools to create next-generation shopping experiences. Developers can now enable agentic AI experiences that allow customers to pay, track shipments, manage invoices, and more, all powered by PayPal and within an AI agent.

PYPL was the subject of an excellent Substack article by High Growth Investing: Profitability Beats Growth: The Quiet Comeback Of PayPal Stock. PYPL is a Buy under $68 for a double in three years.

SoftBank (SFTBY – $25.54) will report March quarter results next Tuesday before the open. The consensus expectation is for revenues up 9.2% to ¥1.9 trillion or $13.2 billion. SFTBY is a Buy under $25 for a first target of $50 in the next two years.

Small Tech

Fastly (FSLY – $7.62) reported March quarter revenues up 8.2% from last year to a record $144.5 million, nicely above the $138.39 million consensus estimate. They lost 5¢ a share pro forma, better than Wall Street’s expectation for a 6¢ loss, and had $8.2 million in positive free cash flow.

On the conference call (AUDIO HERE and INVESTOR SUPPLEMENT HERE and TRANSCRIPT HERE), CEO Todd Nightingale said: “We made great progress in our go-to-market transformation, product release velocity, and growing traffic share with our large enterprise customers which all drove upside in our results. We are raising our financial guidance for 2025 and plan to enrich our current revenue mix with the platform enhancements we’ve recently shipped in security and compute. We believe this will improve our financial performance and allow Fastly to deliver strong, lasting shareholder returns.”

They had 595 enterprise customers in the quarter, up 18 from the first quarter of 2024. Their top ten customers accounted for 33% of revenue compared to 38% in last year’s period. Revenue from the top ten customers declined 6% year-over-year compared to revenue growth of 17% year-over-year from customers outside the top ten. The price pressures from the now-bankrupt Edgio persist. A key metric I watch, their last 12-month net retention rate, decreased to 100% in the first quarter from 102% in the December quarter. I expect this to be the bottom.

Todd gave June quarter guidance for $143.0-$147.0 million in revenues with a pro forma loss of 4¢ to 8¢. He raised their full year guidance to $585.0-$595.0 million in sales with a pro forma loss of 7¢ to 13¢.

After their very disappointing December quarter, I’ve been saying you should Hold Fastly for these March quarter results. Bad quarters usually are like cockroaches – if you see one, there are a lot more lurking. But Todd righted this ship pretty quickly, and I still think Fastly’s Compute@Edge is the right way to do content delivery, so I am moving FSLY back to a Buy with a tighter limit under $10 and a reduced target for a 3- to 5-year hold to $50+.
Primary Risk:Content and applications delivery networks are a competitive area.

QuickLogic (QUIK – $5.96) will report March quarter results after the close on Tuesday. The consensus expectation is for revenues down 32.86% from last year to $4.03 million with an 8¢ loss per share. Guidance should be for 51.04% year-over-year revenue growth to $6.23 million and a positive 5¢. QUIK is a Buy up to $10 for my $40 target as their earnings repeatedly surprise Wall Street.
Primary Risk: Customers’ product introductions and associated royalties are unpredictable.

Redwire (RDW – $11.47) will report March quarter results before the open on Monday. The consensus expects revenues down 15.09% from last year to $74.54 million. Expectations for June quarter revenue guidance are +9.15% year-over-year to $85.26 million. RDW is a Buy under $18 for a $36 first target as space exploration grows.
Primary Risk: A new competitor emerges.

Rocket Lab USA (RKLB – $23.10) reported March quarter revenues up 32.1% from last year to $122.57 million, above the consensus expectation for $121.37 million. They launched 5 Electrons, booked 8 more launches, and lost 12¢ a share as expected.

On the conference call (AUDIO HERE and SLIDES HERE), CEO Sir Peter Best guided for another strong quarter in the June period, with revenues of $130-$140 million bracketing the $137.5 million Wall Street estimate. They ended the quarter with a $1.067 billion backlog, about 40% launch and 60% Space Systems.

Neutron’s Stage 2 (middle rocket engine) qualification is complete and Stage 1 qualification is underway.

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Wall Street does not believe Rocket Lab can develop Neutron on schedule, because new rocket development has never been done that fast before.

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They will launch their 6^th mission of 2025 and 64^th Electron launch overall for their multi-launch customer, Institute for Q-shu Pioneers of Space, Inc. (iQPS), during a launch window that opens on May 17. It will bring the total number of satellites delivered to space by Rocket Lab to 225. RKLB is a Buy up to $13 for my $30+ target as low earth orbit satellites and space exploration grow.
Primary Risk: A new competitor emerges.

Biotech MegaShift

If you can afford it – and it would not be too big a position in your portfolio – putting $2,000 into each of these speculative biotechs might be a good way to start. Buying these out-of-favor, fallen, or forgotten companies that can get important products through the FDA at very low market capitalizations seems like a good strategy to me.

Risks

Development-stage biotechs are subject to investor sentiment swings from wildly optimistic to excessively pessimistic – mostly the latter recently. After the Primary Risk for each company, I’ve added the clinical stage of their lead product, the probable time of their first FDA approval, and the probable time of their next financing.

As always, you need to think about an appropriate position size. You could buy a full position upfront and then just hold on, or buy some upfront and leave room to add more on the inevitable financings, transient clinical trial setbacks, and the like.

AbCellera Biologics (ABCL- $2.01) reported March quarter revenues down 57.8% from last year to $4.2 million, well below the $7.31 billion consensus estimate. They lost 15¢ a share, a penny worse than the -14¢ consensus. None of which matters.

What matters is that on the conference call (AUDIO HERE and SLIDES HERE), CEO Carl Hansen finally disclosed the target for ABCL635 – it’s a potential first-in-class antibody for the non-hormonal treatment of vasomotor symptoms (hot flashes) associated with menopause. Carl said: “ABCL635 is positioned as a next-generation neurokinin 3 receptor (NK3R) antagonist with an improved safety prole and convenient dosing regimen. If successful, we believe it has the potential to be a highly differentiated product in a large and established market.”

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AbCellera started discovery on an additional partner-initiated program with downstreams to reach a cumulative total of 97 partner-initiated program starts with downstreams at the end of the quarter, up from 90 on March 31, 2024. AbCellera’s partners have advanced a cumulative total of 16 molecules into the clinic, up from 13 on March 31, 2024.

Earlier in the week, CFO Andrew Booth presented at the Bloom Burton Healthcare Conference (AUDIO HERE). It was a basic background presentation. Their 2025 priorities are:

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Carl Hansen gave an impressive talk at the University of Texas Austin:

AbCellera finished the quarter with $633 million in cash compared to a $600 million market cap. In addition, they have $178 million in available non-dilutive government funding, bringing their total available liquidity to approximately $810 million. There is no way this company should sell for less than cash per share. Buy ABCL up to $6 for a long-term hold to $30 or more.
Primary Risk: Partnered and owned drugs fail in the clinic.
   Clinical stage of lead product: Partnered: Various Owned: Preclinical
   Probable time of next FDA approval: 2027-2028
   Probable time of next financing: 2026-2027 or never

Akebia Therapeutics (AKBA- $2.62) reported March quarter results this morning. Revenues were up 75.9% from last year to $57.34 million, clobbering the $44.53 million consensus estimate. They earned 3¢ a share; Wall Street thought they would lose 4¢ a share. Vafseo sales of $12 million soundly beat their $10-$11 million forecast during the recent 2024 results conference call, showing CEO John Butler knows how to play the Wall Street game.

On the conference call (AUDIO HERE and TRANSCRIPT HERE), John said that “nephrologists desire for a new treatment option” is driving demand. He expects the rollout to double patient access by the December quarter, mainly through dialysis providers getting Medicare Advantage plans to cover it.

John said that the Vafseo introduction is one of the strongest drug launches into the dialysis market in many years, certainly since the adoption of TDAPA (transitional drug add-on payment adjustment) reimbursement. His goal is to make Vafseo the new standard of care for the treatment of anemia due to chronic kidney disease, replacing Amgen’s Procrit. He said initial usage is in the small and mid-sized dialysis providers, as expected, although they had some orders from all of the top 5 providers.

More than 640 prescribers wrote a prescription for Vafseo in the quarter, and each prescriber wrote nearly 12 prescriptions, on average. About one-third of all prescriptions written were refills, and the refill data shows an increase in the average dose per patient.

The company ended the quarter with $113.4 million in cash, enough to get them to profitability even as they pursue the non-dialysis label expansion for Vafseo, which will require another clinical trial, and advance other existing programs. Buy AKBA up to $2 for the Vafseo launches in the EU, UK, and US.
Primary Risk: Vafseo doesn’t sell in the US.
   Clinical stage of lead product: Approved
   Probable time of next approval: 2026
   Probable time of next financing: Never

Compass Pathways (CMPS – $3.76) reported a March quarter loss of $17.9 million ofr 24¢ a share, almost half of the 44¢ loss Wall Street expected and better than the best Street estimate for a 33¢ loss. But the primary driver was a $19.5 million non-cash gain on the fair value adjustment of their warrant liabilities. That can flip back and forth depending on the stock price and accounted for 26¢ a share, so really they had a 50¢ per-share loss.

On the conference call (AUDIO HERE and TRANSCRIPT HERE), CEO Kabir Nath said the 6-week top-line data from Part A of the COMP005 Phase 3 trial in treatment resistant depression (TRD) is on track for a late June conference call. The Phase 3 COMP006 in TRD is on track for 26-week data in the second half of 2026. Recent 52-week data from an observational follow-up study published on COMP360 demonstrated a durable treatment response and a median time to depressive event of 92 days (n=252) on a single 25 milligram administration and a longer 189 days (n=58) for the 25 milligram subgroup that continued into the COMP004 long-term extension.

Compass is designing a late-stage clinical program for PTSD (Post-Traumatic Stress Disorder) that I don’t expect them to start until we have solid data on TRD.

They finished the quarter with $260.1 million in cash, enough to carry them through the 26-week data read-out from the COMP006 study in the second half of 2026. CMPS is a Buy under $20 for a very long-term hold to a 10x.
Primary Risk: Their drugs fail in the clinic.
   Clinical stage of lead product: Phase 3
   Probable time of first FDA approval: 2027
   Probable time of next financing: Late 2025

Editas Medicine (EDIT – $1.39) gets royalties on the sale of genetic medicines. Vertex, their licensee, just released earnings and included this Casgevy slide. It is now approved in the US, UK, EU, Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, Canada, Switzerland, and UAE. Over 65 centers have been activated and about 90 patients have had first cell collections. Eight patients were dosed in the March quarter.

Click for larger graphic h/t @GeneInvesting

EDIT is a Buy under $6 for a double in 12 months and a long-term hold to much higher prices.
Primary Risk: Other companies’ gene-sequencing drugs fail in the clinic.
   Clinical stage of lead product: Partnered approved. Owned: Going into the clinic mid-2025.
   Probable time of next FDA approval: 2028
   Probable time of next financing: Late 2026 or never

Inovio (INO – $1.82) will report their March quarter after the close on Tuesday. The consensus expectation is for a loss of 74¢ per share.

CEO Jacqueline Shea and CMO Michael Summer presented today at the Citizens JMP Life Sciences Conference (AUDIO HERE). She said DNA medicines can be much more powerful than messenger RNA (mRNA) medicines. INO is a Buy under $14 for a very long-term hold.
Primary Risk: Their drugs fail in the clinic.
   Clinical stage of lead product: Phase 3
   Probable time of first FDA approval: Early 2026
   Probable time of next financing:After FDA approval in 2026

Medicenna (MDNAF – $0.70) also presented at the Bloom Burton Healthcare Conference (AUDIO AND SLIDES HERE). CEO Faher Merchant said that because Superkines magnify the immune system, they can be used to develop drugs like MDNA11 for cancer, autoimmune disease, inflammation, and more.

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Faher emphasized their balanced pipeline:

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MDNA11 has an initial tumor type target of cutaneous melanoma. Its next two tumor type targets are MSI-High and TMB-High, which can be in any kind of cancer – lung, bladder, pancreas, etc. As long as a patient has the MSI-High or TMB-High biomarker, it doesn’t matter where the cancer is or what caused it – that patient is eligible for MDNA11.

The fourth tumor type is virally-associated tumors. In combination with MDNA11, Keytruda will address gynecological cancers. Keytruda is a $30 billion drug but only 30% to 40% of the patients respond to it or other checkpoint inhibitors. When combined with MDNA11, many do respond. Medicenna may be able to get approval for the combination based on one single-arm Phase 2 trial. This is genius. They will be able to generate revenues much earlier than running two Phase 3s to get monotherapy approval.

The patents on the five existing checkpoint inhibitors now generating a combined $50 billion in revenues are expiring. Merck, for example, could introduce a Keytruda/MDNA11 combination drug to protect their $30 billion in revenues after Keytruda loses exclusivity in 2028.

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MDNA113 is in development to make checkpoint inhibitors work against the many cancers they can’t treat now by using two protease sensitive linkers that turn on the Keytruda/MDNA11 drug only when it gets to the tumor.

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No one else has a drug like this.

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The company has C$30 million in cash, no debt, and closed today with only a $54.75 million market cap. MDNAF is a Screaming Buy under $3 for a first target of $20.
Primary Risk: Their drugs fail in the clinic.
   Clinical stage of lead product: Entering Phase 3
   Probable time of first FDA approval: 2025
   Probable time of next financing: 2025

TG Therapeutics (TGTX – $33.86) reported March quarter results Monday morning. Revenues were up 90.4% from last year to $120.86 million, beating the consensus estimate for $117.8 million. But they only earned 3¢ a share, far below the 14¢ consensus, and that hit the stock on Monday for $5.76 or 13.3%.

On the conference call (AUDIO HERE and TRANSCRIPT HERE), CEO Mike Weiss said Briumvi revenues grew 16% from the December period due to increasing adoption by healthcare providers. He guided for $135 million of Briumvi revenues in the June quarter – lowballing, as usual – and raised their 2025 target for Briumvi US revenues from $525 million to $560 million, with total TG revenues of $575 million, up from $540 million.

This year, he expects to begin a pivotal program of subcutaneous Briumvi as well as a pivotal program based on the improved dosing regimens evaluated in the ENHANCE trial, with the goal of enhancing the patient experience on intravenous Briumvi. They will continue enrollment into the ongoing Phase 1 trial evaluating Briumvi in autoimmune diseases outside of MS, beginning with myasthenia gravis. They’ll also continue enrollment into the Phase 1 trial evaluating azer-cel for the treatment of autoimmune diseases, beginning with progressive forms of multiple sclerosis.

The company ended the quarter with $276.2 million in cash and does not need to raise money. Hold TGTX for a target price in a buyout of $40 or more.
Primary Risk: Briumvi, the MS drug, fails to sell.
   Clinical stage of lead product: Approved
   Probable time of next FDA approval: NM
   Probable time of next financing: Never

Inflation MegaShift

Gold ($3,325.10) purchases by central banks have increased roughly five-fold since 2022 after the freeze on Russian reserves, according to Goldman Sachs. China expanded its gold reserves for a 6^th straight month in April. Bullion held by the People’s Bank of China (PBOC) rose by about 70,000 troy ounces last month. In the latest six-month span, volumes have climbed by close to one million ounces, or about 30 tons. In addition to the PBOC, Chinese investors are piling into gold with volumes on the Shanghai Futures Exchange surging to a record in recent weeks. The voracious onshore appetite has also seen the PBOC issuing fresh quotas for commercial banks to import bullion.

The PBOC holds around 8% of its reserves in gold, below the global average of about 20%, and far lower than the elevated share seen in some developed economies. If Beijing targets an allocation of 20% and maintained it’s average pace of about 40 tons a month, it will take about three years to reach the 20% level.

The fractal dimension measured this week’s increase after the last two weeks’ decline as a little more consolidation.

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Miners & Related

Coeur Mining (CDE – $6.97) jumped 21.64% today after reporting March quarter results yesterday with a conference call this morning. Revenues were up a whopping 69.0% from last year to $360.0 million, well above the $313.13 million consensus estimate. They earned 11¢ a share pro forma, clobbering Wall Street’s expectation for a 1¢ loss.

On the conference call (AUDIO HERE and SLIDES HERE and TRANSCRIPT HERE), CEO Mitchell Krebs said quarterly silver production of 3.7 million ounces was 17% higher quarter-over-quarter and 44% higher year-over-year, driven by the expanded Rochester operation and a partial quarter of contribution from the recently acquired Las Chispas mine. Quarterly gold production of 86,766 ounces was flat quarter-over-quarter and 7% higher year-over-year. They are on track to hit their 2025 production guidance of 380,000-440,000 ounces of gold and 16.7-20.3 million ounces of silver. That includes 60,000-75,000 ounces of gold and 7.0-8.3 million ounces of silver from Rochester.

Mitch said: “The Company’s quarterly adjusted EBITDA [Earnings Before Interest, Taxes, Depreciation & Amortization] jumped sharply to $149 million, bringing our last twelve-month total to $444 million and keeping us on-track to generate over $700 million of adjusted EBITDA at much higher overall margins this year. It was less than twenty-four months ago that our last-twelve-month adjusted EBITDA was just $102 million, which highlights the magnitude of the Company’s transformation after several years of heavy investment, the impact of the recent SilverCrest acquisition, and the added benefit of higher gold and silver prices.”

Coeur paid off $85 million of their revolving credit facility to get it down to $110 million. They had $18 million of free cash flow even after approximately $130 million of one-time and first-quarter specific outflows. They expect to generate average quarterly free cash flow of $75-$100 million during the remainder of 2025, allowing them to rapidly pay down the remaining debt.

Inflationary cost pressures are subsiding:

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CDE is a Buy under $5 for a $20 target as gold goes higher.
Primary Risk: Prices of precious metals fall due to US dollar strength.

First Majestic (AG – $5.51) reported March quarter financial results this morning, having previously reported precious metals production. Revenues increased 130.1% to a record $243.9 million. Pro forma earnings per share of 5¢ badly missed the 9¢ estimate. As usual, there was no conference call.

CEO Keith Neumeyer wrote: “Our robust production for Q1 has yielded strong financial performance for the quarter. We have hit multiple record financial metrics including a record $110 million in cash flow from operations and the highest treasury balance in the Company’s 21+ year history, our balance sheet has never been stronger, and we are on track to have a stellar year.”

They held 620,043 silver ounces in coins and bullion finished goods inventory at the end of March. The fair value of this inventory was $21.1 million, which was not included in revenue during the first quarter.

They bought back 262,500 shares during the quarter and an additional 331,000 shares in April.

They had $43.5 million in free cash flow and ended the quarter with $351.3 million in cash and $111.3 million in restricted cash, their highest in history. AG is a Buy under $11 for a $23 next target price as production increases and the price of silver rises.
Primary Risk: Prices of precious metals fall due to US dollar strength.

Paramount Gold Nevada (PZG – $0.47) said their Grassy Mountain gold project has been selected for inclusion in the Federal government’s FAST-41 program. FAST-41 covered projects are entitled to comprehensive permitting timetables and transparent, collaborative management of those timetables on the Federal Permitting Dashboard.

Unfortunately, Glen Van Treek, President & Chief Operating Officer, decided to retire effective immediately. Glen was the main driver of Paramount’s exploration programs and he will be missed. But CEO Rachel Goldman can oversee bringing Grassy Mountain through final permitting at the state and federal levels. PZG is a Buy under $1 for a $10 target as gold moves higher.
Primary Risk: Prices of precious metals fall due to US dollar strength.
   Probable time of next financing: 2026

Sandstorm Gold (SAND – $8.53) reported March quarter results Tuesday. Revenues were up 17.1% from last year to a record $50.1 million, below the $51.97 million consensus estimate. They sold 18,492 gold equivalent ounces, right on the preliminary estimate of ~18,500 ounces and down from last year’s 20.516 ounces. Cash operating margin hit a record $2,509 per attributable gold ounce. They earned 4¢ a share, a penny below the 5¢ consensus.

On the conference call (AUDIO HERE and SLIDES HERE and TRANSCRIPT HERE), CEO Nolan Watson forecast 2025 attributable gold equivalent ounces between 65,000 and 80,000 ounces. Their guidance is sensitive to changes in relative commodity prices, with a ±10% change in both the copper and silver prices relative to the gold price expected to impact attributable gold equivalent ounces by approximately ±1,500 ounces. Long-term, he still forecasts production to double to 150,000 attributable gold equivalent ounces in 2030 based on existing streams and royalties, plus the exercise of their exclusive gold stream option on the MARA project in Argentina. At $3,200 gold, that would produce $300 million in annual cash flow.

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They bought back and canceled 3.1 million shares for $19.1 million dollars in the quarter. SAND is a Buy under $10 for a $25 target.
Primary Risk: Prices of precious metals fall due to US dollar strength.

Sprott Inc. (SII – $53.84) reported March quarter revenues up an excellent 22.9% from last year to $43.36 million. GAAAP earnings hit 46¢ per share, below the 53¢ estimate. They finished the quarter with $35.1 billion in assets under management, up 11% from $31.5 billion at the start of the year. $407 million came from net inflows and the rest from asset appreciation.

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On the conference call (AUDIO HERE and SLIDES HERE and TRANSCRIPT HERE), CEO Whitney George said as of May 2, assets under management increased another 4% to $36.5 billion with an additional $816 million of net inflows, primarily to their physical gold trust, and $629 million of market value appreciation.

In the critical materials segment, he thinks uranium prices have bottomed and said copper prices have strengthened. Whitney said: “While financial markets have been volatile in 2025, at Sprott we are fortunate to be extremely well positioned with an asset base divided between precious metals and critical materials. We have a balanced product suite that offers both safe havens and growth opportunities – all of which offer some inflation protection. We are in a strong position to create value for our clients and shareholders in any environment.”

They announced a 30¢ quarterly dividend. Buy SII under $40 for a $70 target price.
Primary Risk: Prices of precious metals fall due to US dollar strength.

Cryptocurrencies

Cryptocurrencies are a diversifying asset that offer a unique opportunity to make (or lose!) a lot of money quickly.

Bitcoin (BTC-USD on Yahoo – $102,814.73) broke out over $100,000 and now seems to have some people buying it as a risk-on asset and others buying it as a safe haven asset. Interesting!

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BTC-USD, ETH-USD, IBIT, and ETHA are Strong Buys.
Primary Risk: Bitcoin falls due to over-regulation or is surpassed by another cryptocurrency.

iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT- $57.82) remains the cheapest and easiest way to buy bitcoin. IBIT is a Buy for the 2028, 2032, and 2036 halvings.
Primary Risk:Bitcoin falls due to over-regulation or is surpassed by another cryptocurrency.

iShares Ethereum Trust (ETHA- $16.06) remains the cheapest and easiest way to buy ethereum. ETHA is a Buy for the coming explosion in token-funded start-ups.
Primary Risk: Ethereum falls due to over-regulation or is surpassed by another cryptocurrency.

Commodities

Oil – $60.16

Oil crept back over $60 for the first time in seven trading days. There’s the headlines and there’s the reality. The headline:

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The reality: April was the first month of the OPEC+ production increase after the pause. So OPEC+ crude exports soared…right? Not so much.

Click for larger graphic h/t HFI Research

Exports were down. How did that happen? Because the production unwind is voluntary in nature, just as the production cut was voluntary. Saudi Arabia can publicly announce a production increase that President Trump likes, but keep crude exports low.

Since the start of the OPEC+ production cut agreement, Saudis are the only ones cutting production. Here’s the math. OPEC+ crude exports in April 2023 were 30.03 million barrels a day (b/d). In April 2025 that fell to 28.325 million b/d. The change was minus 1.705 million b/d.

Saudi Arabia’s crude exports in April 2023 were 7.5 million b/d. In April 2025 they fell to 5.839 million b/d. The change was minus 1.661 million b/d or 97.4% of the total OPEC+ cutback. The cheaters have been cheating this entire time. Without a meaningful production increase from the Saudis, the truncated production increase is more sentiment than fundamental.

What is the industry saying? From the Diamondback Energy letter to stockholders: “On an inflation-adjusted basis, there have only been two quarters since 2004 where front month oil prices have been as cheap as they are today…we are at a tipping point for U.S. oil production at current commodity prices.”

At $50 a barrel, I expect US crude oil production to fall below 12 million b/d by yearend. This is 1.9 million b/d lower than the current consensus. Later this year, the disconnect between reality and perception will grow so wide that even the paper oil traders will see it:

* * There will be no meaningful increase in OPEC+ crude exports despite truncated production increase timeline, thanks to Saudis being the delta
* * US crude oil production already is showing meaningful weakness
* * Global oil inventories will remain tight, not only failing to build but drawing down
* * Oil demand may be weak if the global economy is weak, but it won’t fall apart.

The July 2026 Crude Oil Futures (CLN26.NYM – no trades) are a Buy under $70 for a $200+ target. Only buy futures for all cash; do not use margin.

The United States 12 Month Oil Fund, LP (USL – $33.14) is a Buy under $40 for a $100+ target.

Vermilion Energy (VET – $6.29) reported March quarter results Wednesday morning. Revenues were up 12.0% from last year to C$568.8 million, above the consensus estimate for C$554.6 million. They earned C10¢ a share compared to C1¢ last year and a C12¢ loss in the December quarter.

Only two analysts are publishing earnings estimates for the full year. One expects a C8¢ loss and the other expects a C$1.38 profit. The meaningless average is C65¢.

On the conference call (AUDIO HERE and SLIDES HERE and TRANSCRIPT HERE), CEO Dion Hatcher said production increased 23%, primarily due to the close of the Westbrick acquisition in February. The integration of Westbrick’s assets and personnel is progressing ahead of plan. After the closing, they identified an additional $100 million of cost savings from operational and development synergies.

In the quarter, they generated C$256 million of funds from operations and C$74 million of free cash flow. They had an increase in net debt to C$2.06 billion due to funding Westbrick, and a deleveraging plan is underway, including beginning non-core asset sales in the March quarter.

I recommended Vermilion because Canadian oil and European gas is a great combination for the next decade. Their North American production averaged 73,760 barrels of oil equivalent a day (boe/d) in the quarter. That was a significant increase over the December quarter driven by the close of the Westbrick acquisition in late February. In Canada, they drilled eleven new wells. They completed and brought on production sixteen wells. In the US, they drilled and completed two new wells, and two non-operated wells were brought on production.

International production averaged 29,355 boe/d. They drilled two wells in Germany, including one oil well and the completion of drilling operations on the Weissenmoor South deep gas exploration well. They also brought the Osterheide well into production at the end of the quarter. It has produced at 1,200 boe/d since startup, exceeding their original expectations.

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Dion guided June quarter production to 134,000-136,000 boe/d including a full quarter from Westbrick production, of which 62% will be natural gas. For the full year they will average 125,000-130,000 boe/d.

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VET is a buy under $11 for a target price of $24 or more.
Primary Risk: Oil prices fall.

Energy Fuels (UUUU – $4.76) reported March quarter results Wednesday. Revenues were down 33.5% from last year to $16.9 million, still more than double the $8.18 million consensus estimate. But they lost 13¢ a share, much worse than the consensus for a 5¢ loss.

On the conference call (AUDIO HERE), CEO Mark Chalmers raised their 2025 uranium production guidance by 22% because their uranium grades at the Pinyon Plain mine are significantly exceeding expectations. In April, the combined ore production from the Pinyon Plain, La Sal, and Pandora mines reached over 160,000 pounds of contained U₃O₈ in the single month, the highest monthly mining rates they’ve had since restarting the mines.

He also raised their finished goods inventory guidance by 193% because they would rather stockpile uranium than sell any of their 595,000 pounds of finished inventory at current prices. He said: “Energy Fuels elected not to make any uranium sales during the first quarter, due to no scheduled contract deliveries, relatively weak uranium prices, and our strong belief that spot and long-term prices will be higher in the future.”

Spot prices are now around $70 a pound and contract prices are around $80 a pound. They expect to sell 220,000 pounds of uranium during 2025 under existing long-term contracts with utilities. As a result of these sales, plus planned 2025 mine production, at the end of 2025, they expect to hold a total of 1,985,000 to 2,585,000 pounds of U₃O₈ in ore inventories plus finished product. That includes approximately 925,000 to 1,225,000 pounds of finished U₃O₈ inventory that would be sufficient to satisfy their 2025, 2026, and a large portion of 2027 delivery requirements – at higher margins compared to spot sales at this time.

They ended the quarter with $162.54 million in cash, $67.68 million of inventory, and no debt. UUUU is a buy under $8 for a $30 target.
Primary Risk: Uranium prices fall.

* * * * *

Click for larger graphic h/t Postcards From Barsoom

* * * * *

Your investigating sudden oak death Editor,

Michael Murphy CFA
Founding Editor
New World Investor

All Recommendations

Priced 5/8/25. Check out the complete Portfolio page HERE.

Buys
These are the stocks everyone needs to own because transformative events are happening over the next year or two, and I expect to hold them long-term.

Tech Dominators
  Apple Computer (AAPL – $197.49) – Buy under $205
  Corning (GLW – $45.05) – Buy under $33, target price $60
  Gilead Sciences (GILD – $98.16) – Buy under $90, first target price $120
  Meta (META – $598.01) – Buy under $655 for a long-term hold
  Micron Technology (MU – $85.15) – Buy under $102, first target price $140
  Nvidia (NVDA – $117.37) – Buy under $125, first target price $180
  Onsemi (ON – $39.77) – Buy under $60, first target price $100
  Palantir (PLTR – $119.15) – Buy under $100, target price $150
  PayPal (PYPL – $70.48) – Buy under $68, target price $136
  Snap (SNAP – $8.22) – Buy under $11, target price $17+
  SoftBank (SFTBY – $25.54) – Buy under $25, target price $50

Small Tech
  Enovix (ENVX – $6.48) – Buy under $20; 4-year hold to $100+
  First Trust NASDAQ Cybersecurity ETF (CIBR – $68.51) – Buy under $70; 3- to 5-year hold
  Fastly (FSLY – $7.62) – Buy under $10 for a 3- to 5-year hold to $50+
  PagerDuty (PD – $15.67) – Buy under $30; 2- to 5-year hold
  QuickLogic (QUIK – $5.96) – Buy under $10, target price $40
  Redwire (RDW – $11.47) – Buy under $18, first target price $36
  Rocket Lab (RKLB – $23.10) – Buy under $13, target price $30+
  ARK Venture Fund (ARKVX – $30.08) – Buy for SpaceX

$20-for-$1 Biotech
  AbCellera Biologics (ABCL – $2.01) – Buy under $6, target $30+
  Akebia Biotherapeutics (AKBA – $2.62) – Buy under $2, target $20
  Compass Pathways (CMPS – $3.76) – Buy under $20, hold a long time for a 10x return
  Editas Medicines (EDIT – $1.39) – Buy under $6 for a double in 12 months and a long-term hold to much higher prices
  Inovio (INO – $1.82) – Buy under $14, hold a long time
  Medicenna (MDNAF – $0.70) – Buy under $3, first target $20, then maybe $40
  ScyNexis (SCYX – $0.96) – Buy under $3, target price $20, then $50

Inflation
  A Short-Sale or REO House – ($415,400) – Hold
  Bag of Junk Silver – ($32.60) – hold through silver bull market
  Sprott Gold Miners ETF (SGDM – $41.61) – Buy under $28, target price $50
  Sprott Junior Gold Miners ETF (SGDJ – $46.83) – Buy under $39, target price $100
  Sprott Physical Gold and Silver Trust (CEF – $28.97) – Buy under $18, target price $30
  Global X Silver Miners ETF (SIL – $40.69) – Buy under $30, target price $50
  Coeur Mining (CDE – $6.97) – Buy under $5, target price $20
  Dakota Gold (DC – $2.75) – Buy under $2.50, target price $6
  First Majestic Mining (AG – $5.51) – Buy under $11, next target price $23
  Paramount Gold Nevada (PZG – $0.47) – Buy under $1, first target price $10
  Sandstorm Gold (SAND – $8.53) – Buy under $10, target price $25
  Sprott Inc. (SII – $53.84) – Buy under $40, target price $70

Cryptocurrencies
  Bitcoin (BTC-USD – $102,814.73) – Buy
  iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT – $57.82) – Buy
  Ethereum (ETH-USD – $2,184.80)– Buy
  iShares Ethereum Trust (ETHA- $16.06) – Buy

Commodities
  Crude Oil Futures – July 2026 (CLN26.NYM – no trades) – Buy under $70; $200+ target
  United States 12 Month Oil Fund, LP (USL – $33.14) – Buy under $40; $100+ target
  Vermilion Energy (VET – $6.29) – Buy under $11; $24 target
  Energy Fuels (UUUU – $4.76) – Buy under $8; $30 target
  EQT (EQT – $53.40) – Buy under $35; $70 first target
  Freeport McMoRan (FCX – $37.48) – Buy under $44; $65 target within two years

Holds
These are holds but not sells – yet. They could get moved back to one of the buy categories if their prices drop or outlook improves, or they could become sell recommendations in the future.
  TG Therapeutics (TGTX – $33.86) – Hold for buyout at $40+

Publisher: GwynRose LLC, 5348 Vegas Drive, Suite 868, Las Vegas, NV 89108

New World Investor does not act as a personal investment adviser or advocate the purchase or sale of any security or investment for any specific individual. The recommendations and analysis presented to members are for the exclusive use of members. Members should be aware that investment markets have inherent risks and there can be no guarantee of future profits. Likewise, past performance does not assure future results. Recommendations are subject to change at any time. Nothing in this presentation should be considered personalized investment advice. No communication to you by Michael Murphy or any of our employees or contractors should be deemed as personalized investment advice.

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