Dear New World Investor:

“Stagflation!” cry the clickbait artists. Well…no. At least not yet. The first estimate of March quarter real GDP growth excluding gold imports was -0.3% compared to the consensus estimate for -0.2% and the Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow model estimate of -0.4%. The New York Fed’s Nowcast predicted +2.6% and the St. Louis Fed’s Nowcast was at +3.1%, which tells you why we follow the Atlanta Fed.

This was the first negative number in three years and way lower than the December quarter’s +2.4%. But it was caused by a huge 41.3% surge in imports, which caused a 5% subtraction in the calculation of March quarter GDP. Imports surged as companies front-loaded orders ahead of President Trump’s anticipated tariffs.

Final sales of goods to domestic purchasers, which is real demand in the economy, grew at a 3% annualized rate in the quarter, about the same as the 2.9% in the December quarter. Companies obviously built inventories, which will soften the GDP number for the June quarter. But stagflation? Nope.

The headline Personal Consumption Expenditures Index increased 2.3% year-over-year and fell month-over-month by less than 0.1%,

The core Personal Consumption Expenditures Index – the Fed’s favorite inflation indicator – increased 2.6% year-over-year in March, a bit lower than the +2.8% in February and right on consensus expectations. The month-over-month increase was less than 0.1%.

So, yeah, this is a “challenging scenario” as Fed Chairman Powell said, but not because it’s stagflation. It’s challenging because no one knows what the real tariff situation will be after all the deals are made and no one knows how businesses and the consumer will react to that situation.

What we do know is AI, machine learning, and biotechnology are investable trends that are going to make huge changes in our lives in the next twenty years.

Market Outlook

The S&P 500 added 2.2% since last Thursday as the Tariff Tantrum faded…for now. The Index is down 4.7% year-to-date. The Nasdaq Composite gained 3.2% as investors realized AI is not just another fad. It’s still down 8.3% for the year, though. Lots of ground to make up by yearend. The SPDR S&P Biotech Exchange-Traded Fund (XBI) climbed 2.0% but is down 8.4% year-to-date. The small-cap Russell 2000 edged up 0.9% but is still down the most in 2025, -11.4%.

The fractal dimension is in an interesting position. It’s consolidating the recent downturn, yet that downturn never turned into a clear down trend to consolidate the post-election rally. I think that means we’ll see a resumed downtrend in the future that will push the fractal dimension under 55 and down to 30, but we’ll have to see.

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Top 5

Changes this week: None

Near-Term – chronological order
AKBA Akebia Therapeutics – Vafseo launch update May 8
SCYX – ScyNexis – Announce resolution of the manufacturing problem, lifting of clinical hold, restart of MARIO trial, maybe GSK files for hospital use approval
EQT EQT –natural gas price rebound
USL United States 12 Month Oil Fund, LP – crude should rise quickly
FCX Freeport McMoRan – copper shortage

Long-Term – alphabetical order
ABCL AbCelllera – Will become a huge pharma royalty company
UUUU Energy Focus – Domestic uranium supplier
EQT EQT – largest US natural gas company
IBIT iShares Bitcoin Trust – Bitcoin is headed for $150,000
META Meta – a (the?) leader in the metaverse
PLTR Palantir – a (the?) leader in AI applications software
RKLB Rocket Lab – #2 to SpaceX in space
SCYX ScyNexis –First new antifungal in 20 years

Coming Events
All times below are ET, and most presentations and slides are archived on the companies’ websites so you can listen to them.

Friday, May 2
April payrolls – 8:30am – +130,000 expected; March was +228,000

Monday, May 5
TGTX- TG Therapeutics -8:30am – Earnings conference call
ON – Onsemi -9:00am – Earnings conference call
ABCL – AbCellera – 9:30am – Bloom Burton Healthcare Investor Conference
MDNAF – Medicenna – 2:30pm – Bloom Burton Healthcare Investor Conference
PLTR – Palantir – 5:00pm – Earnings conference call

Tuesday, May 6
NVDA – Nvidia – 1:00pm – CEO Jensen Huang keynote at Knowledge 2025
SAND – Sandstorm Gold – After the close – Earnings release; call tomorrow

Wednesday, May 7
GILD – Gilead Sciences – Through 5/10 – Multiple presentations at the European Association for the Study of the Liver (EASL) Congress
Business Employment Dynamics – 10:00am – Expect sharp reduction in previously reported payrolls
SAND – Sandstorm Gold – 11:30am – Earnings conference call
GILD – Gilead Sciences – 1:00pm – Annual meeting
CDE – Coeur Mining – After the close – Earnings release; call tomorrow
VET – Vermilion Energy – After the close – Earnings release; call later today
Fed Meeting – 2:00pm press release; 2:30pm press conference
FSLY – Fastly – 4:30pm – Earnings conference call
VET – Vermilion Energy – 5:00pm – Annual meeting & earnings conference call

Thursday, May 8
AKBA – Akebia Therapeutics – 8:00am – Earnings conference call
CMPS – Compass Pathways – 8:00am – Earnings conference call
CDE – Coeur Mining – 11:00am – Earnings conference call
UUUU – Energy Fuels – 11:00am – Earnings conference call
INO – Inovio – 11:30am – Citizens JMP Life Sciences Conference
QUIK – QuickLogic – 1:00pm – Annual meeting
RKLB – Rocket Lab – 5:00pm – Earnings conference call
ABCL – AbCellera – 5:00pm – Earnings conference call

Friday, May 9
AG – First Majestic – Through 5/10 – Invest Stuttgart
Short Interest – After the close

Big Tech: The Biotech & Digital Dominators MegaShift
There are at least four ways to make money in the stocks of these large, growing, dominant companies. You can:
* * Buy a stock and hold it
* * Buy a stock and write a call option against it
* * With a Level IV options account, write an out-of-the-money put option
* * With a Level IV options account, write an out-of-the-money put option and use part of the premium to buy an out-of-the-money call option

Apple (AAPL – $213.32) reported March quarter revenues up 6.0% from last year to $95.4 billion, above the $94.56 billion consensus estimate. iPhone sales rose 1.9% year-over-year while services rose 11.6% to a new all-time record of $26.645 billion, but that was slightly below the $26.72 billion consensus estimate.

Click for larger graphic h/t Seeking Alpha

Sales in the US were strong, but much weaker in Europe and actually down in China.

Click for larger graphic h/t Seeking Alpha
Click for larger graphic h/t Seeking Alpha

Pro forma earnings of $1.65 a share, a record for the March quarter, were up 7.8% from last year and beat the $1.62 estimate.

On the conference call (AUDIO HERE and TRANSCRIPT HERE), CEO Tim Cook said he expects revenue growth in the low- to mid-single digits for the June quarter, with a gross margin between 45.5% and 46.5%. He said expects the “majority” of iPhones sold in the US during the June quarter to be made in India, marking a shift away from its main hub in China due to the tariffs. They anticipate a $900 million impact in the June quarter from tariffs, Tim said the company remains focused on expanding their AI capabilities while maintaining a strong emphasis on privacy, but they need “more time” to perfect Siri.

They returned $29 billion to shareholders in the March quarter, raised the dividend by 4% to 26¢ and announced another huge $100 billion buyback. AAPL is a Buy under $205.

Corning (GLW – $44.78) reported March quarter revenues up 12.9% from last year to $3.68 billion, right on the $3.63 billion consensus estimate. Enterprise sales grew 106% on continued strong demand for new products for generative AI. Their operating margin was up 250 basis points to 18%. Pro forma earnings of 54¢ a share were up 44% from last year and beat the 51¢ estimate.

On the conference call (AUDIO HERE and SLIDES HERE and TRANSCRIPT HERE), CEO Wendell Weeks guided for another strong quarter in June, with core sales of $3.85 billion (consensus $3.82 billion) and 55¢ to 59¢ earnings per share (consensus 56¢). Their earnings forecast includes 1¢ to 2¢ for currently enacted tariffs, along with 3¢ of temporarily higher costs associated with production ramps to meet increased demand for Gen AI and US-made solar products. Less than 5% of their sales in China are imported from the US and subject to China’s retaliatory tariffs. Only 1% of Corning’s products sold in the US come from China, but many of their customers’ products (e.g., flat screen TVs) are produced in China and sold in the US.

He said: “We remain confident in our ability to deliver our Springboard plan. We’re well positioned to maintain momentum despite a dynamic external environment because our growth is underpinned by powerful secular trends that are underway today. For example, we’re seeing remarkable customer response to both our innovations for Gen AI data centers and our US-made solar products, and we are accelerating our production ramps for both.”

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GLW is a Buy under $33 for a $60 target in 2025.

Gilead Sciences (GILD – $103.25) will make multiple presentations next week at the European Association for the Study of the Liver (EASL) Congress. New data to be presented will reinforce the effectiveness of seladelpar in reducing pruritus (chronic itch), a debilitating common symptom of primary biliary cholangitis (PBC). The results will highlight seladelpar’s ability to deliver a sustained biochemical response regardless of prior treatment history, and as an option for a broad range of people with PBC. GILD is a Long-Term Buy under $90 for a first target of $120.

Meta Platforms (META – $572.21) reported another very strong quarter that ignited the Mag7/S&P rally. March quarter revenues rose 16.0% from last year to $42.31 billion, solidly beating the $41.36 billion estimate. GAAP earnings per share hit $6.42, trouncing the $5.22 estimate. Wall Street has been behind the curve on Meta all the way up and I don’t see it stopping anytime soon.

Family daily active people hit 3.43 billion in March, up 6% from last year. Over 40% of the Earth’s population logs into Facebook, Instagram, or WhatsApp every day.

Click for larger graphic h/t Seeking Alpha

Although the March quarter always is lower than the December period, Meta showed strong year-over-year growth in all geographies:

Click for larger graphic h/t Seeking Alpha
Click for larger graphic h/t Seeking Alpha

On the conference call (AUDIO HERE and SLIDES HERE and PREPARED REMARKS HERE and ANALYST Q&A HERE), CEO Mark Zuckerberg said Meta has five major opportunities driven by their AI investments:

* * Improved advertising, where advertisers are seeing a 5% increase in conversions from a new recommendation model. Mark’s goal is to make it so that any business can basically tell Meta what objective they’re trying to achieve, like selling something or getting a new customer, and how much they’re willing to pay for each result, and then Meta just does all the rest – creating the ad, targeting, testing results, and so on.
* * Engaging experiences for users, driving the daily active usage growth highlighted above. This will come in two forms: better recommendations for existing content types, and better, new types of content.
* * Business messaging. In the next few years, just like every business has an email address, social media account, and website, they’ll also have an AI business agent for customer support and sales. And they should be able to set that up very easily on Meta given all the context they’ve already put into their business platforms.
* * Meta AI and advancements in personalization, voice conversations, and entertainment. They own more Nvidia processors than anyone, by far. Across their apps, there are now almost a billion monthly actives using Meta AI. Mark thinks that we’re all going to have an AI that we talk to throughout the day – while we’re browsing content on our phones, and eventually as we’re going through our days with AR glasses – and this will be one of the most important and valuable services that has ever been created.
* * AI devices – from Ray-Ban augmented reality glasses and much more to come. Glasses are the ideal form factor for both AI and the metaverse.

They guided June quarter revenue to a range from $42.5 billion to $45.5 billion, essentially right on the consensus expectation for $43.81 billion. Mark lowered their 2025 total expenses guidance by $1 billion, from a range of $114- $110 billion to $113-118 billion. META is a Buy under $655 for a long-term hold.

Nvidia (NVDA – $111.61) CEO Jensen Huang did a brief Bloomberg Television interview on tariffs and China competition in AI semiconductors.

Both Microsoft and Meta indicated there is no slowdown in their capital spending plans for AI development, which means more revenues for Nvidia. Meta raised its 2025 capital spending estimate from $60-$65 billion to $64-$72 billion and said the new guidance “reflects additional data center investments to support our artificial intelligence efforts as well as an increase in the expected cost of infrastructure hardware.”

Seaport Global Securities made the Street’s only Sell rating with a $100 target, saying that the benefit of artificial intelligence has been (1) “priced in for now.” They added that Nvidia’s largest customers (2) “are all looking to design their own chips,” and (3) “it’s likely that AI budgets slow in ’26,”

To which I say (1) not likely, (2) doesn’t matter, and (3) no way. Nvidia will announce April quarter earnings on May 28. NVDA is a Buy under $125 for a $180 first target.

Onsemi (ON – $39.60) announces March quarter earnings next Monday. Wall Street expects revenues to be down 24.75% to $1.4 billion with 50¢ earnings per share, less than half of last year’s $1.08. Those are low bars to beat and I’ll be watching both the results and the market reaction for clues that ON is a sold-out, low-risk stock. ON is a Buy under $60 for a $100 first target.

Palantir (PLTR – $116.20) also announces March quarter earnings next Monday. The consensus estimate is for revenues up 35.91% to $862.13 million with 13¢ earnings per share versus 8¢ last year. PLTR is a Buy under $100 for a $150 target.

PayPal Holdings (PYPL – $65.41) reported March quarter revenues up 1.0% from last year to $7.8 billion, essentially right on the $7.84 billion consensus. But operating expenses continued to fall and they clobbered the pro forma earning estimate of $1.16 with $1.33 per share. Total payment volume was up 3.3% from last year in spite of the usual sequential decline from the holiday-rich December quarter. Total active accounts grew again. The crucial transaction margin excluding interest on customer balances grew 7% from last year, faster than in the December quarter.

Click for larger graphic h/t Seeking Alpha

US revenues have flattened while year-over-year international continues to grow.

Click for larger graphic h/t Seeking Alpha

On the conference call (AUDIO HERE and SLIDES HERE and TRANSCRIPT HERE), CEO Alex Chriss said PayPal is transforming from a payments company to a commerce platform with AI-assisted personalized customer experiences and a dynamic smart wallet.

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Their 2025 growth strategy is focused on branded checkout experiences, Venmo expansion, and AI integration. The new checkout experience is on 45% of US transactions.

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Alex maintained 2025 guidance for pro forma earning of $4.95 to $5.10 with $6 billion to $8 billion in free cash flow in spite of the global uncertainty over tariffs. PYPL is a Buy under $68 for a double in three years.

Snap (SNAP – $7.83) reported a double beat for the March quarter. Revenues were up 14.3% from last year to $1.36 billion, just above the $1.34 billion estimate. They had a GAAP loss of 8¢ a share, much better than the 13¢ loss Wall Street expected. Monthly average users reached over 900 million with a goal of one billion. Daily active users increased a solid 9% or 38 million from last year to 460 million. They continue to grow rapidly outside North America and Europe.

Click for larger graphic h/t Seeking Alpha

Average revenue per user fell from the December period, as it always does seasonally.

Click for larger graphic h/t Seeking Alpha

Although on a quarterly basis their average revenue per user fell the most in the US and Europe, the year-over-year numbers were strong and higher than the rest of the world, Snap has a real opportunity to get the Europe average up closer to the US average.

Click for larger graphic h/t Seeking Alpha

On the conference call (AUDIO HERE and SLIDES HERE and INVESTOR LETTER HERE and Q&A HERE and TRANSCRIPT HERE), CEO Evan Spiegel said: “Given the uncertainty with respect to how macro economic conditions may evolve in the months ahead, and how this may impact advertising demand more broadly, we do not intend to share formal financial guidance for Q2. While our topline revenue has continued to grow, we have experienced headwinds to start the current quarter, and we believe it is prudent to continue to balance our level of investment with realized revenue growth.”

That dropped the stock 12.4% on Wednesday. But total active advertisers in the March quarter grew 60% year-over-year. Evan said: “Our large, hard-to-reach audience, brand-safe environment, and performant advertising platform have made us a valuable partner for businesses that want to grow and reach the next generation of Snapchatters. Given the progress we have made with our advertising platform, and the pace of execution against our 2025 strategic priorities, we believe we are well positioned to deliver improved business performance and meaningful positive Free Cash Flow as we make further progress towards GAAP profitability.”

Snap is focusing on direct response ads that are designed to prompt specific actions like app downloads or website visits, amid weakness in brand awareness ads. Direct response ad revenue reached 75% of their total ad revenue for the first time in the March quarter ended.

While there is uncertainty regarding the macro operating environment in the near term, Snap has made substantial progress to improve performance for advertisers while diversifying and growing the advertiser base. They are good at controlling their cost structure to balance investment with topline growth over time. They’ve maintained a strong balance sheet with $3.2 billion in cash. I expect them to steadily grow both the number of users and their average revenue per user, and to be one of the leaders in augmented reality.

I agree with the Seeking Alpha contributor who wrote Snap: Buy The Dip – There Is Considerable Upside Potential. SNAP is an asymmetric investment opportunity with little downside risk at only 17x forward earnings and a Price/Earnings/Growth ratio under 0.4. They ended the quarter with $3.2 billion in cash compared to today’s $13.2 billion market capitalization. The company is growing and it’s an obvious takeover target for any of the numerous European and UK companies that have missed the tech revolution. SNAP is a Buy under $11 for a $17+ target.

Small Tech

Enovix (ENVX – $6.14) reported March quarter revenue down 3.2% from last year to $5.1 million, above the $4.64 million estimate. They had a pro forma loss of 15¢ a share, better than the 17¢ loss estimate.

On the conference call (AUDIO HERE and SLIDES HERE and PRESIDENT’S LETTER HERE and TRANSCRIPT HERE), CEO Raj Talluri said: “We are focused on the smartphone industry not only because we believe it offers the largest and fastest profitability outlook, but also because the technical requirements are so demanding that addressing this market opens opportunities in others. Smart eyewear emerged as an example in Q1 when we delivered our first customer samples. This quarter, we are accelerating our expansion in the handheld computer and scanner segment, where we’ve been engaged with a market leader in retail and logistics for several quarters, and our samples have passed initial testing.”

For their lead smartphone customer, they finalized the chemistry, obtained the precise smartphone cell dimensions, and started development of the final samples to be used in the qualification process this summer. One of their two smart glasses customers received their unique battery samples this quarter, aligned with their product development schedules.

For the June quarter, Raj guided for revenues of $4.5 million to $6.5 million with a pro forma loss of 15¢ to 21¢. The second half of the year will show sequential revenue growth as South Korean defense orders arrive and the smartphone customer launches their product.

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Enovix ended the quarter with $248 million in cash. ENVX is a Buy up to $20 for a 4-year hold to $100+ as their BrakeFlow lithium-ion battery takes market share.
Primary Risk: A new competitor invents a better battery.

First Trust NASDAQ Cybersecurity Exchange-Traded Fund (CIBR – $66.62) is an easy way to get exposure to rapidly-increasing cybersecurity risks now that the bad guys have access to strong AI models. According to GetAstra, cybercrime will be a $24 Trillion problem by 2027. IBM says corporate data breaches now cost an average of $4.5 million. Needless to say, government and corporate cybersecurity budgets are surging, creating rapid revenue growth for the companies in CIBR. Nvidia just wrote a blog post on How Agentic AI Enables the Next Leap in Cybersecurity. I’m raising the buy limit on CIBR to $70, still for a 3- to 5-year hold as the need for cybersecurity gets stronger and stronger at every level of society.
Primary Risk: A technology emerges to stop hackers.

Fastly (FSLY – $5.78) announces March quarter earnings next Monday. The consensus is looking for revenues up just 3.65% to $138.39 million with a loss of 6¢ per share. FSLY is a Hold for these March quarter results.
Primary Risk:Content and applications delivery networks are a competitive area.

PagerDuty (PD – $15.55) entered into a “cooperation agreement” with activists Scalar Gauge Fund to appoint a representative to the Board of Directors and put him on the Audit Committee. Scalar wants them to move faster. PD is a Buy up to $30 for a 2- to 5-year hold as their digital operations management Software-As-A-Service gains market share.
Primary Risk: Digital operations management is a competitive area.

QuickLogic (QUIK – $5.61) delivered eFPGA Hard IP optimized for Intel’s 18A technology to a customer that selected QuickLogic’s IP for its test chip. This is the first time eFPGA Hard IP has been delivered for a sub-5 nanometer process node. It is expected to set new standards for low power consumption, high performance, and optimal silicon area utilization. QUIK is a Buy up to $10 for my $40 target as their earnings repeatedly surprise Wall Street.
Primary Risk: Customers’ product introductions and associated royalties are unpredictable.

ARK Venture Fund (ARKVX – $30.04) can be bought with a minimum investment of $500 through the SoFi app. It can be bought with a standard brokerage account, or through a traditional or Roth IRA. ARKVX is a Buy for the SpaceX IPO.
Primary Risk: Cathie sells the stock before the IPO.

Rocket Lab USA (RKLB – $22.12) announces March quarter earnings next Thursday. Wall Street wants to see revenues up 30.84% to $121.37 million with a loss of 9¢ per share.RKLB is a Buy up to $13 for my $30+ target as low earth orbit satellites and space exploration grow.
Primary Risk: A new competitor emerges.

Biotech MegaShift

If you can afford it – and it would not be too big a position in your portfolio – putting $2,000 into each of these speculative biotechs might be a good way to start. Buying these out-of-favor, fallen, or forgotten companies that can get important products through the FDA at very low market capitalizations seems like a good strategy to me.

Risks

Development-stage biotechs are subject to investor sentiment swings from wildly optimistic to excessively pessimistic – mostly the latter recently. After the Primary Risk for each company, I’ve added the clinical stage of their lead product, the probable time of their first FDA approval, and the probable time of their next financing.

As always, you need to think about an appropriate position size. You could buy a full position upfront and then just hold on, or buy some upfront and leave room to add more on the inevitable financings, transient clinical trial setbacks, and the like.

AbCellera Biologics (ABCL- $2.49) announces March quarter earnings next Thursday after the close. The consensus expects revenues down 26.56% to $7.31 million with a 14¢ per share loss. As always, what will move the stock is news on their partners and their internal drug development.

They presented new data on their PSMA x CD3 T-cell engagers (TCEs) as a poster at the American Association for Cancer Research (AACR) annual meeting. They believe that targeting prostate-specific membrane antigen (PSMA) with a CD3 TCE could provide an effective treatment option for metastatic castration-resistant prostate cancer (mCRPC). The presentation showed promising preclinical activity, including:

* * Potent in vitro tumor-cell killing
* * Sustained in vitro activity across four rounds of serial T-cell killing
* * Preclinical in vivo efficacy, with significant tumor growth inhibition in a xenograft mouse model

Buy ABCL up to $6 for a long-term hold to $30 or more.
Primary Risk: Partnered and owned drugs fail in the clinic.
   Clinical stage of lead product: Partnered: Various Owned: Preclinical
   Probable time of next FDA approval: 2027-2028
   Probable time of next financing: 2026-2027 or never

Akebia Therapeutics (AKBA- $2.39) also announces March quarter earnings next Thursday, but before the open. The consensus estimate is for revenues up 36.55% to $44.53 million, which should include at least $10-$11 million of Vafseo sales, with a loss of 4¢ per share, half of last year’s 8¢. Buy AKBA up to $2 for the Vafseo launches in the EU, UK, and US.
Primary Risk: Vafseo doesn’t sell in the US.
   Clinical stage of lead product: Approved
   Probable time of next approval: 2026
   Probable time of next financing: Never

Compass Pathways (CMPS – $4.10) is our third biotech announcing March quarter earnings, also next Thursday before the open. The consensus estimate is for a loss of 49¢ per share in a wide range from 41¢ to 67¢. The company can’t say much about the blinded Phase 3 trials, but may set a June date for the first data release.

They signed another deal to get ready for the COMP360 launch, this one with HealthPort. HealthPort is a 45-year-old multi-site comprehensive community health organization focused on underserved communities, where there can be a high level of treatment-resistant depression. CMPS is a Buy under $20 for a very long-term hold to a 10x.
Primary Risk: Their drugs fail in the clinic.
   Clinical stage of lead product: Phase 3
   Probable time of first FDA approval: 2027
   Probable time of next financing: Late 2025

Medicenna (MDNAF – $0.86) presented updated clinical trial results at the American Association for Cancer Research (AACR) annual meeting this week. Ten patients, including three new ones, have achieved an objective response (5 confirmed) when treated with MDNA11 alone or in combination with Merck’s Keytruda. All responders had advanced and/or metastatic cancers with resistance to immune checkpoint inhibitors (ICI) or with historically low responses to ICI.

The combination of MDNA11 with Keytruda in the dose escalation arm achieved an objective response rate (ORR) of 36% (5 of 14) in all tumor types enrolling in the Phase 2 expansion cohorts and an ORR of 31% (4 of 13) in cancers planned for the Phase 2 combination expansion cohort.

Patients from MDNA11 monotherapy dose expansion and dose escalation arms treated at 60 or more micrograms per kilogram of body weight achieved an ORR of 29.4% (5 of 17) in all tumor types enrolling in the Phase 2 expansion cohorts and an ORR of 40% (4 of 10) in cancers enrolling in the Phase 2 monotherapy expansion cohort.

The highest ORR of 50% achieved amongst MSI-H (a type of mismatch repair deficiency that causes cancer cells to have many mutations) patients receiving MDNA11 monotherapy (2 of 4) and endometrial cancer patients receiving a combination of MDNA11 and KEYTRUDA (2 of 4).

The monotherapy arm continues to demonstrate encouraging durability with a melanoma patient and a pancreatic cancer patient remaining tumor-free and off-treatment after entering the study 2 and 3 years ago, respectively. Enrollment in the Phase 2 combination dose expansion arm is underway. Buy MDNAF under $3 for a first target of $20.
Primary Risk: Their drugs fail in the clinic.
   Clinical stage of lead product: Entering Phase 3
   Probable time of first FDA approval: 2025
   Probable time of next financing: 2025

ScyNexis (SCYX – $0.98) will hold their annual meeting on June 25, and is very likely to announce the new manufacturer of ibrexafungerp and the resumption of the MARIO trial before then. Buy SCYX under $2.50 for a first target price of $20 after ibrexafungerp is approved for hospital use and a buyout at $50.
Primary Risk: Ibrexafungerp fails to sell.
   Clinical stage of lead product: Approved
   Probable time of next FDA approval: 2025
   Probable time of next financing: Never

TG Therapeutics (TGTX – $45.37) is our fourth biotech announcing March quarter earnings next week, in this case on Monday before the open. The average analysts’ forecast is for revenues up 85.69% to $117.86 million with 17¢ earnings per share. Hold TGTX for a target price in a buyout of $40 or more.
Primary Risk: Briumvi, the MS drug, fails to sell.
   Clinical stage of lead product: Approved
   Probable time of next FDA approval: NM
   Probable time of next financing: Never

Inflation MegaShift

Gold ($3,222.80) is starting a necessary pullback from its $3,485 high to consolidate its long recent upleg. I think we’ll see a multi-imonth consolidation around these levels instead of a shorter, sharper price drop. Following the Western confiscation of Russia’s foreign reserve holdings after Moscow’s invasion of Ukraine, institutions, sovereign wealth funds, and central banks are shifting billions of dollars into gold. China’s central bank has already bought more gold this year than in all of 2024 – 60 tons, or about $6.5 billion worth at today’s prices. That puts a floor under the price. Billionaire investor John Paulson sees gold near $5,000 by 2028.

Due to last Friday’s drop, the fractal dimension flipped to a red candle with another one this week. It looks like the much-needed consolidation has started.

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Miners & Related

Coeur Mining (CDE – $5.40) announces March quarter earnings next Wednesday with a conference call on Thursday. The consensus thinks revenues will be up 46.97% to $313.13 million with a 1¢ loss per share. They could be profitable. CDE is a Buy under $5 for a $20 target as gold goes higher.
Primary Risk: Prices of precious metals fall due to US dollar strength.

Sandstorm Gold (SAND – $8.41) announces March quarter earnings next Tuesday with a conference call on Wednesday. The consensus estimate is for revenues up 23.03% to $72.18 billion with 5¢ earnings per share. We’ve already seen their ounces sold and costs, so there should be no surprises. I expect CEO Nolan Watson to focus on the future growth built in to their current royalty portfolio. SAND is a Buy under $10 for a $25 target.
Primary Risk: Prices of precious metals fall due to US dollar strength.

Cryptocurrencies

Cryptocurrencies are a diversifying asset that offer a unique opportunity to make (or lose!) a lot of money quickly.

Bitcoin (BTC-USD on Yahoo – $96,486.95) continues its rally. Like gold, it seems to be uncorrelated with the stock market and therefore a good holding in any portfolio for diversification.

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BTC-USD, ETH-USD, IBIT, and ETHA are Strong Buys.
Primary Risk: Bitcoin falls due to over-regulation or is surpassed by another cryptocurrency.

iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT- $54.95) remains the cheapest and easiest way to buy bitcoin. IBIT is a Buy for the 2028, 2032, and 2036 halvings.
Primary Risk:Bitcoin falls due to over-regulation or is surpassed by another cryptocurrency.

iShares Ethereum Trust (ETHA- $13.96) remains the cheapest and easiest way to buy ethereum. ETHA is a Buy for the coming explosion in token-funded start-ups.
Primary Risk: Ethereum falls due to over-regulation or is surpassed by another cryptocurrency.

Commodities

Oil – $58.45

Oil under $60 is a pretty blunt message to OPEC+ that they need to delay their production increases. President Trump is using this weakness to refill the Strategic Petroleum Reserve, but even that can’t convince the paper oil traders that demand isn’t about to weaken. It just hasn’t weakened yet and – Spoiler Alert! – it’s not going to,

The July 2026 Crude Oil Futures (CLN26.NYM – $58.21) are a Buy under $70 for a $200+ target. Only buy futures for all cash; do not use margin.

The United States 12 Month Oil Fund, LP (USL – $32.42) is a Buy under $40 for a $100+ target.

Vermilion Energy (VET – $6.17) announces March quarter earnings next Monday. The consensus estimate is for revenues up 9.17% to $554.6 million. As a Canadian producer with extensive European natural gas assets, Vermilion is especially well-positioned for the next several years. VET is a buy under $11 for a target price of $24 or more.
Primary Risk: Oil prices fall.

Energy Fuels (UUUU – $4.5) will announce March quarter earnings next Thursday. The one analyst publishing on the stock expects revenues to be down 36.96% to $21.93 million.

They mined 4,604 tons of uranium ore in April at their Pinyon Plain Mine in Arizona, the highest-grade US uranium mine. That produces a record 151,400 pounds of U3O8. Their drill program identified large areas of uranium mineralization with average grades believed to be unprecedented in the modern era of US uranium mining. The drill cores are currently being sampled and will be sent for analytical testing. UUUU is a buy under $8 for a $30 target.
Primary Risk: Uranium prices fall.

EQT (EQT – $50.36) will benefit from higher US natural gas prices as shipments to Mexico and LNG exports become a higher and higher percentage of total US demand.

Click for larger graphic h/t @HFI_Research

Although lower 48 gas production is about 0.51 billion cubic feet per day higher year-over-year, the net gas supply is down year-over-year due to Mexico and LNG exports. EQT is a buy under $35 for a first target of $70 and a long-term hold for much higher prices.
Primary Risk:Natural gas prices fall.

* * * * *

Martha Argerich plays Beethoven

* * * * *

Your trying to understand the Canadian election Editor,

Michael Murphy CFA
Founding Editor
New World Investor

All Recommendations

Priced 5/1/25. Check out the complete Portfolio page HERE.

Buys
These are the stocks everyone needs to own because transformative events are happening over the next year or two, and I expect to hold them long-term.

Tech Dominators
  Apple Computer (AAPL – $213.32) – Buy under $205
  Corning (GLW – $44.78) – Buy under $33, target price $60
  Gilead Sciences (GILD – $103.25) – Buy under $90, first target price $120
  Meta (META – $572.21) – Buy under $655 for a long-term hold
  Micron Technology (MU – $77.77) – Buy under $102, first target price $140
  Nvidia (NVDA – $111.61) – Buy under $125, first target price $180
  Onsemi (ON – $39.60) – Buy under $60, first target price $100
  Palantir (PLTR – $107.78) – Buy under $100, target price $150
  PayPal (PYPL – $65.41) – Buy under $68, target price $136
  Snap (SNAP – $7.83) – Buy under $11, target price $17+
  SoftBank (SFTBY – $25.44) – Buy under $25, target price $50

Small Tech
  Enovix (ENVX – $6.14) – Buy under $20; 4-year hold to $100+
  First Trust NASDAQ Cybersecurity ETF (CIBR – $66.62) – Buy under $70; 3- to 5-year hold
  PagerDuty (PD – $15.55) – Buy under $30; 2- to 5-year hold
  QuickLogic (QUIK – $5.61) – Buy under $10, target price $40
  Redwire (RDW – $10.95) – Buy under $18, first target price $36
  Rocket Lab (RKLB – $22.12) – Buy under $13, target price $30+
  ARK Venture Fund (ARKVX – $30.04) – Buy for SpaceX

$20-for-$1 Biotech
  AbCellera Biologics (ABCL – $2.49) – Buy under $6, target $30+
  Akebia Biotherapeutics (AKBA – $2.39) – Buy under $2, target $20
  Compass Pathways (CMPS – $4.10) – Buy under $20, hold a long time for a 10x return
  Editas Medicines (EDIT – $1.62) – Buy under $6 for a double in 12 months and a long-term hold to much higher prices
  Inovio (INO – $1.89) – Buy under $14, hold a long time
  Medicenna (MDNAF – $0.86) – Buy under $3, first target $20, then maybe $40
  ScyNexis (SCYX – $0.98) – Buy under $3, target price $20, then $50

Inflation
  A Short-Sale or REO House – ($415,400) – Hold
  Bag of Junk Silver – ($32.38) – hold through silver bull market
  Sprott Gold Miners ETF (SGDM – $39.89) – Buy under $28, target price $50
  Sprott Junior Gold Miners ETF (SGDJ – $43.91) – Buy under $39, target price $100
  Sprott Physical Gold and Silver Trust (CEF – $28.46) – Buy under $18, target price $30
  Global X Silver Miners ETF (SIL – $39.35) – Buy under $30, target price $50
  Coeur Mining (CDE – $5.40) – Buy under $5, target price $20
  Dakota Gold (DC – $2.66) – Buy under $2.50, target price $6
  First Majestic Mining (AG – $5.88) – Buy under $11, next target price $23
  Paramount Gold Nevada (PZG – $0.46) – Buy under $1, first target price $10
  Sandstorm Gold (SAND – $8.41) – Buy under $10, target price $25
  Sprott Inc. (SII – $51.77) – Buy under $40, target price $70

Cryptocurrencies
  Bitcoin (BTC-USD – $96,486.95) – Buy
  iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT – $54.95) – Buy
  Ethereum (ETH-USD – $1,849.73)– Buy
  iShares Ethereum Trust (ETHA- $13.96) – Buy

Commodities
  Crude Oil Futures – July 2026 (CLN26.NYM – $58.21) – Buy under $70; $200+ target
  United States 12 Month Oil Fund, LP (USL – $32.42) – Buy under $40; $100+ target
  Vermilion Energy (VET – $6.17) – Buy under $11; $24 target
  Energy Fuels (UUUU – $4.55) – Buy under $8; $30 target
  EQT (EQT – $50.36) – Buy under $35; $70 first target
  Freeport McMoRan (FCX – $36.41) – Buy under $44; $65 target within two years

Holds
These are holds but not sells – yet. They could get moved back to one of the buy categories if their prices drop or outlook improves, or they could become sell recommendations in the future.
  Fastly (FSLY – $5.78) – Hold for March quarter results
  TG Therapeutics (TGTX – $45.37) – Hold for buyout at $40+

Publisher: GwynRose LLC, 5348 Vegas Drive, Suite 868, Las Vegas, NV 89108

New World Investor does not act as a personal investment adviser or advocate the purchase or sale of any security or investment for any specific individual. The recommendations and analysis presented to members are for the exclusive use of members. Members should be aware that investment markets have inherent risks and there can be no guarantee of future profits. Likewise, past performance does not assure future results. Recommendations are subject to change at any time. Nothing in this presentation should be considered personalized investment advice. No communication to you by Michael Murphy or any of our employees or contractors should be deemed as personalized investment advice.

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