Author Archives: Michael Murphy

Dear New World Investor: May’s nonfarm payrolls jobs report showed the US economy added 139,000 jobs, more than the consensus expectation for 126,000. The unemployment rate held steady at 4.2%. The April number was revised down from 177,000 to 147,000. So in spite of President Trump’s tariff volatility, the...

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Dear New World Investor: As you know, the core Personal Consumption Expenditures Index (PCE) strips out the volatile food and energy components from the headline PCE price index to provide a clearer picture of underlying inflation trends. I refer to the core PCE as the Fed’s favorite inflation indicator,...

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Dear New World Investor: The second estimate of March quarter real GDP growth this morning was little changed on the surface, down 0.2% instead of the initial estimate of down 0.3%. But under the hood, the positive difference seemed to be inventory investments to beat President Trump’s tariffs. Personal...

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Dear New World Investor: Who are the bears with sideline cash to take the stock market to all-time highs? Well, hedge funds have added $25 Billion of short equity futures exposure over the last three Commitment Of Traders reports, the largest increase in the last ten years. Click for...

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Dear New World Investor: The headline April Consumer Price Index was +2.3%, the slowest increase since February 2021 and a tenth below both market expectations and the March number even though many of President Trump’s tariffs were in effect. Month-over-month, prices increased 0.2%. That was better than the 0.3%...

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Dear New World Investor: Today is the 80th anniversary of VE Day – Victory in Europe at the end of World War II. The day celebrates the formal acceptance by the Allies of Germany’s unconditional surrender of its armed forces and military operations on Tuesday, 8 May 1945....

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Dear New World Investor: “Stagflation!” cry the clickbait artists. Well…no. At least not yet. The first estimate of March quarter real GDP growth excluding gold imports was -0.3% compared to the consensus estimate for -0.2% and the Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow model estimate of -0.4%. The New York Fed’s Nowcast...

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Dear New World Investor: The downturn is over. During the past two weeks we’ve seen historic breadth, including six days with more than 70% of stocks advancing on the New York Stock Exchange. This is NOT what you see in a bear market rally or a short covering rally....

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Dear New World Investor: It’s been a week of Tariff Tantrums and Inflation Fears. This morning’s Consumer Price Index report for March showed less inflationary pressures. The headline index was up 2.4% year-over-year (YoY), its lowest increase in four years, a tenth under the 2.5% consensus and better than...

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