Author Archives: Michael Murphy

Dear New World Investor: Today is the 80th anniversary of VE Day – Victory in Europe at the end of World War II. The day celebrates the formal acceptance by the Allies of Germany’s unconditional surrender of its armed forces and military operations on Tuesday, 8 May 1945....

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Dear New World Investor: “Stagflation!” cry the clickbait artists. Well…no. At least not yet. The first estimate of March quarter real GDP growth excluding gold imports was -0.3% compared to the consensus estimate for -0.2% and the Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow model estimate of -0.4%. The New York Fed’s Nowcast...

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Dear New World Investor: The downturn is over. During the past two weeks we’ve seen historic breadth, including six days with more than 70% of stocks advancing on the New York Stock Exchange. This is NOT what you see in a bear market rally or a short covering rally....

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Dear New World Investor: It’s been a week of Tariff Tantrums and Inflation Fears. This morning’s Consumer Price Index report for March showed less inflationary pressures. The headline index was up 2.4% year-over-year (YoY), its lowest increase in four years, a tenth under the 2.5% consensus and better than...

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Dear New World Investor: Inflation is collapsing. @DiMartinoBooth wrote: “Per Truflation, on a time continuum, their metric tells you with near-perfect accuracy where the CPI will be 45 days hence. There was thus no irony in TJM Institutional Services’ Mark Gomez sharing first thing this morning that Truflation had...

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Dear New World Investor: To no one’s surprise, for the second meeting in a row the Fed made no change to interest rates on Wednesday. They also didn’t change their prediction for two rate cuts later year. But they did raise their estimate of the core Personal Consumption Expenditures...

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Dear New World Investor: Last Friday’s February payrolls report showed 151,000 new jobs, just under the 160,000 expected by economists. It was more than the 143,000 originally reported for January, which was revised down to 125,000. Although the DOGE personnel cuts are starting to bite, the unemployment rate only...

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Dear New World Investor: Last Friday’s Personal Consumption Expenditures Index report for January showed the headline number increasing 2.5% year-over-year, a tenth slower than December’s 2.6%. The month-over-month increase was 0.3%, the same as December and right on the consensus. Stripping out the volatile food and energy components, the...

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