Author Archives: Michael Murphy

Dear New World Investor: To no one’s surprise, for the second meeting in a row the Fed made no change to interest rates on Wednesday. They also didn’t change their prediction for two rate cuts later year. But they did raise their estimate of the core Personal Consumption Expenditures...

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Dear New World Investor: Last Friday’s February payrolls report showed 151,000 new jobs, just under the 160,000 expected by economists. It was more than the 143,000 originally reported for January, which was revised down to 125,000. Although the DOGE personnel cuts are starting to bite, the unemployment rate only...

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Dear New World Investor: Last Friday’s Personal Consumption Expenditures Index report for January showed the headline number increasing 2.5% year-over-year, a tenth slower than December’s 2.6%. The month-over-month increase was 0.3%, the same as December and right on the consensus. Stripping out the volatile food and energy components, the...

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Dear New World Investor: The recent catch-up rallies in German stocks, financial sector stocks, China technology, and even the ARK Innovation Exchange-Traded Fund (ARKK) mean we are in a “broadening bull.” This is when we suddenly and very quickly have an aggressive broadening of the rally. It could be...

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Dear New World Investor: The headline Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased 3.0% year-over-year in January, a tick above December’s 2.9%. The index for eggs increased 15.2% from December, the largest increase since June 2015. It accounted for about 2/3 of the total monthly food at home increase. Year-over-year egg...

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Dear New World Investor: It’s wild how quickly people forget Trump’s negotiation tactics. Step 1: Say something completely ridiculous that overshoots his desired outcome. Step 2: Retreat from that stance to something more “reasonable” that was the intended goal all along. Step 3: Get what you really wanted. Step...

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Dear New World Investor: As I expected, the Fed voted unanimously to hold interest rates steady yesterday, its first pause following three consecutive cuts at the end of 2024. They removed language noting that inflation had made progress toward their 2% goal, retaining only that “inflation remains somewhat elevated.”...

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Dear New World Investor: Earnings season is upon us. The market is transitioning from rising earnings with easier financial conditions to rising earnings with tighter financial conditions. That’s not bad per sé, but it’s not as good as what we had in 2024 when two-thirds of the gains came...

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