Dear New World Investor:
Earnings season is upon us. The market is transitioning from rising earnings with easier financial conditions to rising earnings with tighter financial conditions. That’s not bad per sé, but it’s not as good as what we had in 2024 when two-thirds of the gains came from price/earnings multiple expansion. I do expect more mergers and acquisitions activity under President Trump, which means fewer public companies for money managers to invest in. That should underpin a steady rally in the S&P 500.
Market Outlook
The S&P 500 added 3.1% since last Thursday to new all-time highs today. The Index is up 4.0% year-to-date. The Nasdaq Composite gained 3.7% and is up 3.8% for the year. The SPDR S&P Biotech Exchange-Traded Fund (XBI) climbed 5.8% after last week’s JPMorgan conference. That turned it positive for the year and it is up 3.2% year-to-date. The small-cap Russell 2000 lagged, adding 2.2%, and is up 3.8% in 2025.
It’s always interesting to see how quickly the tide turns from optimism to pessimism after even the smallest drawdowns. After a period of post-election ebullience, sentiment turned sour last week. The American Association of Individual Investors (AAII) investor survey showed bulls dropped to 25.4% last week, the lowest since November 2023 and one standard deviation below the long-term mean. Bears rose to 40.8%, the highest since November 2023, and one standard deviation above the long-term mean. This is what you want to see if you are bullish.
Click for larger graphic h/t @TimmerFidelity
And just like that, the fickle public is back to bullish this week with 43.4% bulls and 29.4% bears.
Click for larger graphic h/t AAII
The fractal dimension may have started a new trend up. Another week will confirm it. If that happens, we’re going to need a bigger boat graphic for the run toward (to?) 7000.
Top 5
Changes this week: None
Near-Term – chronological order
AKBA Akebia Therapeutics – Vafseo launch in January
SCYX – ScyNexis – Announce resolution of the manufacturing problem, lifting of clinical hold, restart of MARIO trial, maybe GSK files for hospital use approval
EQT EQT –natural gas price rebound
USL United States 12 Month Oil Fund, LP – crude should rise quickly
FCX Freeport McMoRan – copper shortage
Long-Term – alphabetical order
ABCL AbCelllera – Will become a huge pharma royalty company
UUUU Energy Focus – Domestic uranium supplier
EQT EQT – largest US natural gas company
IBIT iShares Bitcoin Trust – Bitcoin is headed for $150,000
META Meta – a (the?) leader in the metaverse
PLTR Palantir – a (the?) leader in AI applications software
RKLB Rocket Lab – #2 to SpaceX in space
SCYX ScyNexis –First new antifungal in 20 years
Economy
The Fed meets next Tuesday and Wednesday. I expect them to neither cut nor raise the Fed funds rate. Then, on Friday, we get their favorite inflation indicator, the core Personal Consumption Expenditures Index. In January 2024, the core PCE jumped 0.5% month-over-month. With that data point finally falling out, the year-over-year core CPI increase will be “surprisingly” low and closer to the Fed’s 2.0% target. Traders are going to speculate on a quarter-point (25bps) cut on March 19.
Dollar Death Watch
Speculators now hold $34.6 billion in bullish dollar bets, the most since 2019. Crowded trades rarely work out. According to Reuters, the Bank of Japan is about to raise interest rates to the highest level in 17 years. Yen strength should place downside pressure on the US dollar. A weaker dollar would be good for stocks and gold.
Click for larger graphic h/t @WinfieldSmart
Coming Events
All times below are ET, and most presentations and slides are archived on the companies’ websites so you can listen to them.
Monday, January 27
Short Interest – After the close
Wednesday, January 29
GLW – Corning – 8:30am – Earnings conference call
Business Employment Dynamics – 10:00am
Fed Meeting – 2:00pm press release; 2:30pm press conference
META – Meta Platforms – 5:00pm – Earnings conference call
Thursday, January 30
December quarter GDP – 8:30am – First estimate
AAPL – Apple – 5:00pm – Earnings conference call
Friday, January 31
Personal Consumption Expenditures Index – 8:30am – The Fed’s favorite inflation indicator
Big Tech: The Biotech & Digital Dominators MegaShift
There are at least four ways to make money in the stocks of these large, growing, dominant companies. You can:
* * Buy a stock and hold it
* * Buy a stock and write a call option against it
* * With a Level IV options account, write an out-of-the-money put option
* * With a Level IV options account, write an out-of-the-money put option and use part of the premium to buy an out-of-the-money call option
Apple (AAPL – $223.66) reports December second=quarter earnings next Thursday after the close. Analysts are expecting revenues to be up just 3.8% from last year to $124.12 billion with earnings of $2.35 per share.
Apple lagged in this rally due to downgrades at Jefferies and Loop Capital, and a Bloomberg report suggesting its iPhone sales dropped 18% in China during the December quarter. Jefferies downgraded from Hold to Underperform and cut their target price to $200.75. Not $200.00, $200.75 – because they are accurate within 25¢. They expect Apple to report lower-than-expected results for the December quarter and a miss on guidance for the March quarter due to weak iPhone sales and “a lack of interest in AI among consumers.”
Loop Capital downgraded from Buy to Hold with a $230 target, down from $275.
The rumor is that Apple will debut a new iPhone SE in the coming months to increase sales in the mid-range smartphone market. They also will roll out new entry-level iPads and new MacBook Airs. AAPL is a HOLD – I expect to move back to Buy under $175 for new iPhones.
Corning (GLW – $53.68) reports earnings next Wednesday morning. The consensus is for revenues be up 15% from last year to $3.76 billion with earnings of 56¢ per share versus 39¢ last year.
Samsung said that the Galaxy S25 Ultra will feature Corning Gorilla Armor 2 front displays, the industry’s first scratch-resistant, anti-reflective glass ceramic cover material for smartphones. Gorilla Armor 2 combines superior toughness with excellent clarity on a smartphone display. GLW is a Buy under $33 for the 5G cellular buildout, followed by the smartphone upgrade to use 5G services. My target is $60 in 2025 .
Gilead Sciences (GILD – $92.92) ended a five-year court battle with the US government in which Gilead scored several victories only to have the government appeal. A settlement with the Department of Health and Human Services and the Department of Justice resolves government claims that the company infringed its patents covering the pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) use of two Gilead HIV drugs. GILD is a Long-Term Buy under $90 for a first target of $120.
Meta Platforms (META – $636.45) also reports next week on Wednesday after the close, deliberately upstaging Apple by going a day earlier. Wall Street wants to see revenues up 17.1% from last year to $46.97 billion with earnings of $6.75 per share. Guidance for the seasonally lower March quarter should be for $41.75 billion and $5.40.
There was a major product leak from Meta that might have been deliberate to test the market’s reaction. They are working on upgrades to their smart glasses and exploring new wearable devices like smartwatches and camera-equipped earbuds. The goal is to take advantage of their lead in AI and augmented reality (AR) by putting those features into more products.
As you know, Meta already makes Ray-Ban glasses starting at $299 that are embedded with cameras, microphones, and other technologies. Although they aren’t true AR devices that can superimpose data and images on real-world views, they can take pictures, analyze the surrounding environment, play music, and handle calls.
That product line, internally code-named “Supernova,” will be expanded in two ways. First, they will broaden their smart glasses technology to other fashion brands owned by their partner, Luxottica Group SA. A new version – “Supernova 2” – is based on Oakley’s Sphaera glasses. It shifts the camera to the center of the glasses frame for cyclists and other athletes.
Second, they will release new high-end glasses code-named “Hypernova” with a display on the bottom portion of the right lens that projects information into a user’s field of view. People would be able to run simple software apps, view notifications, and see photos taken by the device — capabilities that get closer to the long-promised AR experience. Hypernova glasses will cost around $1,000.
Other products underway would compete with Apple’s smartwatch and AirPods. Meta’s prototypes of an AirPods rival, “Camera Buds,” have built-in cameras that can see the outside world and take action using AI. Users can look at an object and ask the earbuds to analyze it. Both Apple and Samsung are working on earbuds with cameras.
All of this repositions Meta as an AI innovator far ahead of Apple. Zuckerberg clearly does not like Tim Cook. He wants to focus on hardware that can usher in the next era of computing, so he has spent billions of dollars on augmented and virtual reality development and launched multiple versions of headsets and glasses. Wall Street hates the Reality Labs spending, but I like it – this is how to build a great company. META is a Hold – Buy or add whenever it hits its lower Bollinger Band, now under $585.
Onsemi (ON – $56.26) is still under my buy limit. ON is a Buy under $60 for a $100 first target.
Palantir (PLTR – $78.98) CEO Alex Karp and Head of Commercial Ted Mabrey discussed Palantir’s unique culture and why the West must adopt it.
Palantir signed a multi-year deal with Boundless Discovery, which uses AI to understand complex events, to build its v0 flagship offering on AIP. The company started with AIP’s free Developer Tier because it was “the perfect tool to build robust solutions at speed.” Now they can build a billion-dollar company starting from free!
Raymond James kept its Market Perform rating and wrote: “We anticipate reported GAAP metrics for PLTR will have cost headwinds that are not modeled by the Street, however the primary focus will be on the topline, AEPS and AEBITDA.”
Jefferies reiterated its “SELL” rating due to its “retail premium,” saying: “Active institutional ownership increased 5pts to 32% post the Nasdaq 100 inclusion, which may reduce the retail premium going forward.”
Why they would care about the “retail premium” when institutions are buying is beyond me.
Click for larger graphic h/t @arny_trezzi
PLTR is a Buy under $22 for a $100+ target.
SoftBank (SFTBY – $33.39) CEO Masayoshi Son will chair President Trump’s new Stargate AI infrastructure initiative, starting with $100 billion from SoftBank, OpenAI, Oracle, and Abu Dhabi’s state investor MGX. The first data center will be built in Texas, with SoftBank in charge of financing and OpenAI running operations. The plan is to scale up to $500 billion over the next four years. SFTBY is a Buy under $25 for a first target of $50 in the next two years.
Small Tech
PagerDuty (PD – $18.65) published the fourth edition of their State of Digital Operations Report, based on survey responses from more than 1,100 global operations leaders.
64% of respondents expect IT operations budgets to increase in 2025 to support continued investments in operational efficiency, resilience, and excellence. Enthusiasm for agentic AI is highest among CIOs and CTOs, with a majority (53%) viewing it as core to future IT operations. PD is a Buy up to $30 for a 2- to 5-year hold as their digital operations management Software-As-A-Service gains market share.
Primary Risk: Digital operations management is a competitive area.
Rocket Lab USA (RKLB – $31.57) scheduled the next Electron launch for Kinéis, the global Internet-of-Things (IoT) connectivity provider, for a launch window opening on February 4. This is the fourth of five launches for Kinéis.
They signed an interesting contract for a responsive launch on Electron with Orora Technologies, a German company developing a satellite constellation to monitor wildfires and alert first responders to danger. The dedicated mission on Electron will deploy eight satellites to orbit, and here’s the interesting part: The launch is within just four months from signing the contract. That enables OroraTech to meet the season-sensitive requirements of its wildfire detection mission. The rapid turnaround is just the latest demonstration of Rocket Lab’s responsive launch capabilities for satellite operators needing urgent access to space – something its competitors can’t do.
Speaking of competitors, this morning Firefly Aerospace’s Blue Ghost Mission 1 blasted off for a 45-day journey to the Moon as part of NASA’s Commercial Lunar Payload Services (CLPS) program. Their mission uses Rocket Lab’s MAX Flight and MAX Ground Data Software suites. Rocket Lab also provided three high-efficiency photovoltaic assemblies using their interconnected space-grade solar cells, mounted on the lander’s sides and top deck, providing 400 watts of power over 1,470 operational hours to support the lander during its journey to the lunar surface. During the Blue Ghost mission, the Rocket Lab team will also support Firefly’s execution of multiple burns and management of orbit determination and attitude control throughout the cruise and landing phases of the mission.
The stock jumped 30.3% on Tuesday as space stocks rallied after President Trump pledged to send US astronauts to Mars. RKLB is a Buy up to $13 for my $30+ target as low earth orbit satellites and space exploration grow.
Primary Risk: A new competitor emerges.
Biotech MegaShift
If you can afford it – and it would not be too big a position in your portfolio – putting $2,000 into each of these speculative biotechs might be a good way to start. Buying these out-of-favor, fallen, or forgotten companies that can get important products through the FDA at very low market capitalizations seems like a good strategy to me.
Risks
Development-stage biotechs are subject to investor sentiment swings from wildly optimistic to excessively pessimistic – mostly the latter recently. After the Primary Risk for each company, I’ve added the clinical stage of their lead product, the probable time of their first FDA approval, and the probable time of their next financing.
As always, you need to think about an appropriate position size. You could buy a full position upfront and then just hold on, or buy some upfront and leave room to add more on the inevitable financings, transient clinical trial setbacks, and the like.
I expect a biotech buyout surge in 2025. Most big pharma companies have $60 billion or more in debt incurred for huge acquisitions to replace drugs with near-term patent expirations. But the fix for replacing lost revenues by grossly overpaying for new drugs is not working for them. I think big pharma is going to looking for small cap biotech deals that are cheap and offer strong potential upside, like all of my current biotech recommendations.
AbCellera Biologics (ABCL- $3.51) did present to the JPMorgan Healthcare Conference after all (AUDIO AND SLIDES HERE and SLIDES HERE) – they were just incredibly slow to post the links.
Their theme was that they are transitioning from a research organization to a biotech with two drugs in clinical trials this year, and then using their deep pipeline to grow into a global pharma company. Their partnerships have built a large portfolio of royalties in future antibody medicines.
ABCL575 for atopic dermatitis will enter the clinic in the June quarter, with a data readout in 2026. They still are not disclosing the target for ABCL635, which will enter the clinic this year with safety and early efficacy data in 2026.
In 2025, they’ll also choose two additional development candidates from their 20+ pipeline programs. They are targeting one to three new drugs going into the clinic every year for the next five years. Buy ABCL up to $6 for a long-term hold to $30 or more.
Primary Risk: Partnered and owned drugs fail in the clinic.
Clinical stage of lead product: Partnered: Various Owned: Preclinical
Probable time of next FDA approval: 2027-2028
Probable time of next financing: 2026-2027 or never
Inflation MegaShift
Gold ($2,760.60) broke out above its early December 4 high at $2,658.30 and may be about to break above its October 30 all-time high at $2,789.00.
The fractal dimension is almost fully consolidated and could signal a new uptrend anytime, but my experience is full consolidation is needed before a major trend. I continue to counsel patience.
Cryptocurrencies
Cryptocurrencies are a diversifying asset that offer a unique opportunity to make (or lose!) a lot of money quickly.
Bitcoin (BTC-USD on Yahoo – $102,748.90) broke out above resistance at $100,000 and that level has held as support. It is above its key moving averages – 50-day, 100-day, and 200-day – that are sloping up, indicating upward momentum.
BTC-USD, ETH-USD, IBIT, and ETHA are Strong Buys.
Primary Risk: Bitcoin falls due to over-regulation or is surpassed by another cryptocurrency.
iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT- $58.79) remains the cheapest and easiest way to buy bitcoin. IBIT is a Buy for the 2028, 2032, and 2036 halvings.
Primary Risk:Bitcoin falls due to over-regulation or is surpassed by another cryptocurrency.
iShares Ethereum Trust (ETHA- $24.59) remains the cheapest and easiest way to buy ethereum. ETHA is a Buy.
Primary Risk:Ethereum falls due to over-regulation or is surpassed by another cryptocurrency.
Commodities
Oil – $74.26
Crude oil inventories fell 1.017 million barrels last week – that’s 10 weeks in a row. Cushing inventories were down 0.148 million barrels and they can see the bottoms of the tanks. But oil dropped after President Trump declared a national energy emergency that will allow for increased oil and gas production. Some folks think that a “drill, baby, drill” approach might create too much supply, but the truth is the shale revolution has peaked and US production is not going to grow.
Traders also are trying to balance the impact of potential tariffs on lowering demand in China and the EU against the Russian sanctions lowering supply. Not to mention the historic winter storm that has caused bitter cold from Texas to North Carolina, and will cause next week’s inventory number to be meaningless. And they all are forgetting that Trump wants to refill the Strategic Petroleum Reserve, probably in some sort of fixed-price deal with OPEC+.
The chronically bearish International Energy Agency (IEA) still estimates that the global crude oil market will be oversupplied (i.e., inventory builds) by over one million barrels a day in the current quarter. But so far this year, inventories have fallen by 33 million barrels or about 1.5 million barrels a day. I predict we are going to have a $70 to $80 trading range for oil for the next few months, followed by increasing prices, which means another year of record free cash flow, debt reduction, increased dividends, and stock buybacks for oil companies.
The July 2026 Crude Oil Futures (CLN26.NYM – no trades – June was $67.88) are a Buy under $70 for a $200+ target. Only buy futures for all cash; do not use margin.
The United States 12 Month Oil Fund, LP (USL – $39.22) is a Buy under $40 for a $100+ target.
Vermilion Energy (VET – $9.95) is a Buy under $11 for a target price of $24 or more.
Primary Risk: Oil prices fall.
Freeport McMoRan (FCX – $38.52) reported December quarter revenues down 3.2% from last year to $5.72 billion, $270 million below the $5.99 billion consensus. Pro forma earnings of 31¢ a share were well above the 22¢ estimate, but they included 12¢ of one-time credits. Without those, Freeport earned 19¢ a share, below the 22¢ estimate.
They produced about 40 million pounds less copper than I expected:
Click for larger graphic h/t Seeking Alpha
And sold much less than I expected:
Click for larger graphic h/t Seeking Alpha
And sold it at a lower price than I expected by this time:
Click for larger graphic h/t Seeking Alpha
On the conference call (AUDIO HERE and SLIDES HERE and TRANSCRIPT HERE), management said that the total 2024 results were in line with guidance.
They guided the March quarter to sales of 850 million pounds of copper and 225 million ounces of gold. For the full year, they expect sales of 4.0 billion pounds of copper and 1.6 million ounces of gold. Their average net cost per pound of copper will drop from $1.66 in the December quarter to $1.60 this year. Sales in terms of pounds will be flattish through 2027.
That means the price of copper will determine the success of this investment. Although copper inventories surprised me by climbing in 2024, they are now getting liquidated. I expect better demand in China and the US to get us over $5 copper this year, with higher prices after that.
Their precision leaching technology recovered 50 million pounds of copper in 2022, 144 million pounds in 2023, and 214 million pounds in 2024. They will scale it this year to recover 300 million to 400 million pounds, targeting 800 million pounds a year by 2030. This is low-cost copper. FCX is a buy under $44 for a $65 target within two years.
Primary Risk: Copper prices fall.
* * * * *
The US Debt Clock now has the D.O.G.E. Clock real-time estimated savings (in gold below)
Click for larger graphic h/t @BrianRoemmele
* * * * *
RIP Garth Hudson, the last living member of The Band
* * * * *
Your reading about government waste Editor,
(The Department of the Interior spent $12 Million on a Las Vegas Pickleball Complex?)
Michael Murphy CFA
Founding Editor
New World Investor
All Recommendations
Priced 1/23/25. Check out the complete Portfolio page HERE.
Buys
These are the stocks everyone needs to own because transformative events are happening over the next year or two, and I expect to hold them long-term.
Tech Dominators
Corning (GLW – $53.98) – Buy under $33, target price $60
Gilead Sciences (GILD – $92.92) – Buy under $90, first target price $120
Micron Technology (MU – $104.84) – Buy under $102, first target price $140
Onsemi (ON – $56.26) – Buy under $60, first target price $100
Palantir (PLTR – $78.98) – Buy under $22, target price $100+
PayPal (PYPL – $89.73) – Buy under $68, target price $136
Snap (SNAP – $10.59) – Buy under $11, target price $17+
SoftBank (SFTBY – $33.39) – Buy under $25, target price $50
Small Tech
Enovix (ENVX – $12.11) – Buy under $20; 4-year hold to $100+
First Trust NASDAQ Cybersecurity ETF (CIBR – $66.71) – Buy under $60; 3- to 5-year hold
Fastly (FSLY – $10.44) – Buy under $14; 3- to 5-year hold to $80+
PagerDuty (PD – $18.65) – Buy under $30; 2- to 5-year hold
QuickLogic (QUIK – $9.42) – Buy under $10, target price $40
Rocket Lab (RKLB – $31.57) – Buy under $13, target price $30+
$20-for-$1 Biotech
AbCellera Biologics (ABCL – $3.51) – Buy under $6, target $30+
Akebia Biotherapeutics (AKBA – $2.39) – Buy under $2, target $20
Compass Pathways (CMPS – $3.87) – Buy under $20, hold a long time for a 10x return
Editas Medicines (EDIT – $1.41) – Buy under $6 for a double in 12 months and a long-term hold to much higher prices
Inovio (INO – $2.29) – Buy under $14, hold a long time
Medicenna (MDNAF – $0.97) – Buy under $3, first target $20, then maybe $40
ScyNexis (SCYX – $1.08) – Buy under $3, target price $20, then $50
Inflation
A Short-Sale or REO House – ($415,400) – Hold
Bag of Junk Silver – ($30.84) – hold through silver bull market
Sprott Gold Miners ETF (SGDM – $30.07) – Buy under $28, target price $50
Sprott Junior Gold Miners ETF (SGDJ – $36.81) – Buy under $39, target price $100
Sprott Physical Gold and Silver Trust (CEF – $25.25) – Buy under $18, target price $30
Global X Silver Miners ETF (SIL – $33.09) – Buy under $30, target price $50
Coeur Mining (CDE – $6.26) – Buy under $5, target price $20
Dakota Gold (DC – $2.32) – Buy under $2.50, target price $6
First Majestic Mining (AG – $5.61) – Buy under $11, next target price $23
Paramount Gold Nevada (PZG – $0.38) – Buy under $1, first target price $10
Sandstorm Gold (SAND – $5.74) – Buy under $10, target price $25
Sprott Inc. (SII – $43.34) – Buy under $40, target price $70
Cryptocurrencies
Bitcoin (BTC-USD – $102,748.90) – Buy
iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT – $59.79) – Buy
Ethereum (ETH-USD – $3,243.37)– Buy
iShares Ethereum Trust (ETHA- $24.59) – Buy
Commodities
Crude Oil Futures – July 2026 (CLN26.NYM – no trades – June was $67.88 ) – Buy under $70; $200+ target
United States 12 Month Oil Fund, LP (USL – $39.22) – Buy under $40; $100+ target
Vermilion Energy (VET – $9.95) – Buy under $11; $24 target
Energy Fuels (UUUU – $5.88) – Buy under $8; $30 target
EQT (EQT – $53.57) – Buy under $35; $70 first target
Freeport McMoRan (FCX – $38.52) – Buy under $44; $65 target within two years
Holds
These are holds but not sells – yet. They could get moved back to one of the buy categories if their prices drop or outlook improves, or they could become sell recommendations in the future.
Apple Computer (AAPL – $223.66) – Expect to move back to Buy under $175 for new iPhones
Meta (META – $636.45) – Expect to move back to Buy
TG Therapeutics (TGTX – $29.04) – Hold for buyout at $40+
Publisher: GwynRose LLC, 5348 Vegas Drive, Suite 868, Las Vegas, NV 89108
New World Investor does not act as a personal investment adviser or advocate the purchase or sale of any security or investment for any specific individual. The recommendations and analysis presented to members are for the exclusive use of members. Members should be aware that investment markets have inherent risks and there can be no guarantee of future profits. Likewise, past performance does not assure future results. Recommendations are subject to change at any time. Nothing in this presentation should be considered personalized investment advice. No communication to you by Michael Murphy or any of our employees or contractors should be deemed as personalized investment advice.
Copyright ©GwynRoseLLC 2025
There can only be one
Is it just me? I have asked MM to identify the source of the fractal dimension charts without result. Where does he get them? How are they generated? Why does the source remain opaque? Notice there has never been any attribution. They are just lines without substantiation of what machine and mechanics generate them IMO.
Also I have requested regular publication of silver md its fractals to no avail.
Anybody in agreement?
MM has explained fractal analysis periodically, but I still don’t have an intuitive understanding of it. I would also appreciate some written discussion, charts, etc. One mysterious thing MM said is that fractals are under the radar of most technical analysts. When they discover it, it will no longer be a useful tool. How can all this be, with all the PhD mathematicians that MM says have advantages over us. Maybe AI is dumbing down everyone. Who needs grad school when AI can provide answers that a child can submit for a research paper?
Today I read about Triverity, a new diagnostic tool to be used in emergency rooms and hospitals to assess infections and more serious sepsis. A cassette with the patient’s blood is inserted into a machine to analyze 29 genes associated with immune response to various infections. SORRY, MY INSTINCT IS DISTRUST. Doctors used to be educated in clinical judgment–take a good history, do a thorough exam, order basic lab tests. I was taught in the 1970’s that if you can’t make the diagnosis from history alone 80% of the time, you are a lousy doctor. Nowadays, when the patient with abdominal pain comes to the ER, they get a CT or MRI, and the radiologist makes the diagnosis. The doctor is becoming lazy and is losing his clinical skills.
I agree w/both requests.
So, in 2008 MM was recommending Quik at about the current pricing…..HMMMMMMM?
QUIK did a 14:1 reverse split in 2019-12. The split adjusted original buy was $39.06 so QUIK has lost 76% of it’s value since it’s recommendation in 2007. The S&P 500 is up over 300% over the same time period.
For going on 18 years now it seems to always be a quarter or two away from turning the corner…
I am still holding after 16 years. I added more at $4 to get my average down to $12-13. The theme with QUIK has been when a new technology comes along, their legacy products go to the trash. Cashflow breakeven has been tenuous. Each time, the promise of the next thing will get them permanently profitable. At least QUIK is better than many NWI stocks that never get off the ground and get diluted to death. I recommend that all subscribers get a hefty position in AKBA at current prices. Over the next 5 years, I think that AKBA will be the savior for NWI losses and provide life changing results.
JGMD do yiu really think AKBA will take 5 years to give great returns??
We are awaiting sales data. Sales of all HIF drugs outside US have been modest, leading bears to think that Vafseo sales in US will also be modest. Debt and royalty payments will cause dilution, they say. But they are ignoring TDAPA. The company has had 9 months to get nephrologists and dialysis organizations excited about prescribing and offering Vafseo, resp. There was a rumor that week 1 sales were for 13,500 patients, much higher than the market expects. This is plausible since nephrology surveys showed that 7% want to prescribe V immediately, 75% within 6 months, nearly 100% within a year. AKBA could rise to the average analyst target of $7.17 or higher in a year, from $2.30 currently. On Stocktwits, hsainu believes $30 is possible by end 2025. Trial for anemia in non dialysis (earlier stage CKD) will likely succeed. Outside US, NDD was approved. The previous NDD trial failed because of heterogeneous comparisons. If NDD is successful by 2027, the stock could be $100 in 2028. Add the pipeline of 9090 for acute kidney injury and acute respiratory distress, and the stock could be $200 or more in less than 10 years.
hi JG I like you, left SCYX in the dust heap and banked on Vafseo and the TDAPA. Is there any way to follow up and confirm sales numbers. And, would you expect them to report monthly? (BTW may take a small position oSCYX. Just maybe GSK has plans. It is awfully quiet. Could it be thatGSK has taken control of the MARIO study and intend to use brexa in recovery . They don’t have to announce anything
AKBA–see Stocktwits. On ST, Magic_Money and PharmaExpert posted a chart of estimates monthly to end 2025. The chart looks like it is from AKBA. Numbers of patients for Jan are 13,700, February much higher, etc. Nobody has access to IQVIA script numbers, except for Wall Street firms willing to pay $100K for a subscription. The earliest clue might be the conference Feb 11, but we might have to wait until early May for the Q1 report. The stock could decay to $2 or less, which would be the last buying opportunity before hard numbers are released. If the chart estimates are correct, the stock will be $10 by the summer.
SCYX–what a piece of shit. GSK is procrastinating on getting the MARIO trial done and getting Brexa production back. No, the FDA story of the hold is pure horseshit. It’s been 1.5 years since the “hold” and the log of toilet shit is 10 feet long and a foot wide. GSK withdrew daprodustat, another HIF drug like Vafseo because it had a high risk of hospitalization for heart failure. GSK has big business in other areas, so they withdrew dapro in the US and are putting Brexa on the back burner. SCYX is a slave collecting small royalties, whereas GSK runs the show, and they have better things to do than restart Brexa production and pay attention to MARIO.
MM, Thoughts on why ETH, is lagging so?? tia
RKLB is a Buy up to $13 for my $30+ target
MM – are you going to raise the target price since we’re over $30?
I asked someone on Stocktwits this question regarding SCYX and this was their answer:
Q: What caused the big spike from .98 to 1.45 from the end of last year to the beginning of this year?
A: The market makers had several hundred thousand shares from Federated they had acquired. Sold them on the engineered run up for a profit.
Currently we sit at $1.10. We need that FDA hold lifted like yesterday!!
Sellas Life Sciences is developing a treatment for acute myeloid leukemia.
https://www.foxnews.com/video/6367560268112
There is a Flash Alert to buy Nvidia (NVDA)
bot NVDA