Dear New World Investor:
As I expected, the Fed voted unanimously to hold interest rates steady yesterday, its first pause following three consecutive cuts at the end of 2024. They removed language noting that inflation had made progress toward their 2% goal, retaining only that “inflation remains somewhat elevated.” They also said that the unemployment rate has “stabilized at a low level in recent months,” getting rid of “eased.” They said job market conditions remain “solid,” which means they feel no pressure to cut further.
We get the next core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index – the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge – tomorrow morning. Economists expect the core PCE to be +2.8% year-over-year in December, the same as November. They think the month-over-month core PCE rose 0.2%, a tenth faster than November’s 0.1%. No big deal.
Today’s first estimate of December quarter real GDP growth was +2.3%, right on the latest estimate from the Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow model. Bloomberg said the consensus expected +2.6%. Both numbers are below the 3.1% growth in the September quarter. Again, no big deal.
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The late, great Charlie Munger – the real brains behind Berkshire Hathaway – said: “Really good investment opportunities aren’t going to come along too often and won’t last too long, so you’ve got to be ready to act and have a prepared mind.”
Nvidia (NVDA) made history Monday with DeepSeek’s AI release: It erased almost $600 billion in market cap with a 17% decline. That is the biggest single day market cap loss any stock has EVER had. So I sent a Flash Alert to Buy NVDA. Here’s why.
The real importance of DeepSeek is that they trained a model 90% as powerful as the leading Artificial Intelligence models for only about 4% of the cost. They used clever software engineering to do that, and because it is open source, all the big guys can copy it. I am surprised to see no one talking about how painfully slow it is.
Click for larger graphic h/t @alexdanilo99
While the clueless ran around with “the sky is falling!” virus, selling Nvidia stock, I saw opportunity to get in at a discount.
Cheaper AI models mean AI will spread faster than expected, and Nvidia will have MORE demand for its GPUs, not less. Nvidia is not threatened by lower cost to build and infer. In fact, it’s becoming clear that one reason DeepSeek works so well is that it was trained on a lot of data China has preserved from 4000 years of history while US models have been trained on only a couple of hundred years of history. That’s about to change dramatically, which means more demand for Nvidia processors.
I first visited CEO Jensen Huang in 2000, when Nvidia was relatively small. He told me it would be bigger than Intel someday. He was right and he’s one of the smartest people I’ve ever met. As I said in the Flash Alert, Nvidia’s chips are at the center of a whole ecosystem including their CUDA development software and applications software for numerous industries from biotech to manufacturing to full self-driving cars to humanoid robotics. It’s a wide, deep moat.
I have no doubt Nvidia’s price per chip will steadily fall – that’s been the semiconductor business model for decades. Cheaper chips mean more possible applications. More possible applications mean cheaper, more powerful products. Cheaper, more powerful products mean higher volumes of chip sales. It’s the Jevons Paradox.
Nvidia reports January fourth quarter earnings on February 26. The consensus of 43 analysts expects revenues up 72.5% from last year to $38.13 billion with earnings up 63.5% to 85¢. Guidance for the April quarter is expected to be $42.0 billion, up 61.3% from the 2024 period, and 91¢ versus 61¢.
Click for larger graphic h/t @zerohedge
I am well aware of two things. First, Nvidia can only maintain its 75% gross profit margins while it is backordered. When supply catches up to demand – which it will in 2026 or maybe late 2025 – their pricing power goes away.
Click for larger graphic h/t Macrotrends
We’ll either step aside and reenter lower or just hold through the inevitable dip and add to our positions. I expect that dip to come from much higher levels.
Second, you’ll hear a lot of people saying Nvidia in 2025 is like Cisco in 2000 – the leading supplier of key infrastructure to a massive technology advance, but it’s never gotten back to its 2000 price because it was overvalued. No doubt NVDA is very highly valued at 48.9x earnings and 28.3x sales. The difference is, as I write at the top of every Boomberg:
Stocks peak about every 36 years, most recently in 1929, 1965, and 2000. This 36-year cycle can be traced all the way back to the earliest eras in recorded human history, back to Pythagoras and Plato and the Axial Age around 600BC. After each peak comes a period of decline (punctuated by bear market rallies) that typically lasts 16 years or so. Then, with the excesses of the prior bull period wrung out and investors most depressed, the next 20-year run to the next market top can begin. We’re in that Golden Age now – take advantage of it!
Buying Nvidia with 11 years left to the next big bull market top is very different from buying Cisco right at a bull market top. Buy NVDA under $125 for a first target of $180.
Click for larger graphic h/t stockchart.com
Market Outlook
The S&P 500 lost 0.8% since last Thursday, dragged down by the Big Tech reaction to DeepSeek. The Index is up 3.2% year-to-date. The Nasdaq Composite lost 1.9% and is only up 1.9% for the year. The SPDR S&P Biotech Exchange-Traded Fund (XBI) inched up 0.6%. It is leading the pack year-to-date, up 3.9%. The small-cap Russell 2000 dropped 0.3% and is still up 3.5% in 2025.
The fractal dimension is full of energy and very tentatively signaling a new trend has started. Monday’s wipeout muddied the waters, but the most likely expectation is that the next move up has started.
Top 5
Changes this week: None
Near-Term – chronological order
AKBA Akebia Therapeutics – Vafseo launch in January
SCYX – ScyNexis – Announce resolution of the manufacturing problem, lifting of clinical hold, restart of MARIO trial, maybe GSK files for hospital use approval
EQT EQT –natural gas price rebound
USL United States 12 Month Oil Fund, LP – crude should rise quickly
FCX Freeport McMoRan – copper shortage
Long-Term – alphabetical order
ABCL AbCelllera – Will become a huge pharma royalty company
UUUU Energy Focus – Domestic uranium supplier
EQT EQT – largest US natural gas company
IBIT iShares Bitcoin Trust – Bitcoin is headed for $150,000
META Meta – a (the?) leader in the metaverse
PLTR Palantir – a (the?) leader in AI applications software
RKLB Rocket Lab – #2 to SpaceX in space
SCYX ScyNexis –First new antifungal in 20 years
Economy
There have been three soft landings since 1966 in 1967, 1985, and 1995. Each one saw the economy re-accelerate 1½ years after the last rate hike. We’re at that mark now.
Click for larger graphic h/t @bravosresearch
Coming Events
All times below are ET, and most presentations and slides are archived on the companies’ websites so you can listen to them.
Friday, January 31
Personal Consumption Expenditures Index – 8:30am – The core PCE is the Fed’s favorite inflation indicator.
Monday, February 3
PLTR – Palantir – 5:00pm – Earnings conference call
Tuesday, February 4
PYPLPayPal – 8:00am – Earnings conference call
SNAP – Snap – 5:00pm – Earnings conference call
Thursday, February 6
CDE – Coeur Mining – 1:00pm – Special meeting of shareholders to approve SilverCrest acquisition. Vote YES.
Friday, February 7
January Payrolls – 8:30am
Big Tech: The Biotech & Digital Dominators MegaShift
There are at least four ways to make money in the stocks of these large, growing, dominant companies. You can:
* * Buy a stock and hold it
* * Buy a stock and write a call option against it
* * With a Level IV options account, write an out-of-the-money put option
* * With a Level IV options account, write an out-of-the-money put option and use part of the premium to buy an out-of-the-money call option
Apple (AAPL – $237.59) reported December first quarter results after the close today. Revenues rose 3.9% from last year to an all-time record $124.3 billion, a skootch ahead of the $124.1 billion estimate. They earned a record $2.40 per share, just ahead of the $2.35 estimate. iPhone brought in $69.1 billion versus expectations of $71.0 billion, down slightly from the $69.7 billion the company reported last year. Services generated $26.3 billion in revenue, in line with Wall Street’s expectations.
Click for larger graphic h/t Seeking Alpha
On the conference call (AUDIO HERE and TRANSCRIPT HERE), management said Greater China sales were $18.5 billion. That was down 11.1% from last year and below expectations for $21.5 billion.
Click for larger graphic h/t Seeking Alpha
AAPL rose 3.3% on DeepSeek Monday because the company is a consumer of others’ AI models, so cheaper is better. They moved Kim Vorrath, a 36-year company veteran and vice president in charge of program management known for fixing troubled products and bringing major projects to market to a new job: whipping artificial intelligence and Siri into shape.
Apple will overhaul Siri as part of the AI rollout with a new version of the digital assistant as part of iOS 18.4 in April. The new version is designed to better respond to queries by tapping into the customer’s data. It also can identify what’s currently on a user’s screen and more precisely control the device’s applications through a system called App Intents. Apple is working on an even more advanced version of Siri that includes a more conversational interface — something more in line with ChatGPT and other AI offerings. It will be previewed this year for developers and introduced in 2026. AAPL is a HOLD – I expect to move back to Buy under $175 for new iPhones.
Corning (GLW – $49.99) reported December first quarter results. Revenues rose 18.3% from last year to $3.87 billion, just above the $3.77 billion estimate. They earned 57¢ per share, again just ahead of the 56¢ estimate. On the conference call (AUDIO HERE and SLIDES HERE and TRANSCRIPT HERE), management said the first year of their three-year Springboard plan to grow revenues without growing operating expenses is off to a strong start:
Both Optical Communications and Display Technologies have turned up. They guided the March quarter to $3.6 billion in revenues, up 10% from last year, with earnings per share up about 30% to a range from 48¢ to 52¢, both right on consensus estimates. They will raise their Springboard targets at their March 18 Investor Day. GLW is a Buy under $33 for a $60 target in 2025.
Meta Platforms (META – $687.00) also rose 1.9% on DeepSeek Monday, in part because DeepSeek’s model is open source, which was seen as validating Meta’s open sourcing their Llama AI models. After the close on Wednesday, Meta reported December quarter revenues up 21% from last year to $48.39 billion, nicely above the $46.95 billion consensus estimate. Earnings per share hit $8.02, clobbering the $6.76 consensus. But on the conference call (AUDIO HERE and SLIDES HERE and PREPARED REMARKS HERE and TRANSCRIPT HERE), they guided the March quarter to a revenue range from $39.5 billion to $41.8 billion, with the midpoint well below the $41.62 billion consensus. If there is going to be any weakness in business-to-consumer advertising, I suspect it will be in the first half of 2025.
They said: “This reflects 8% to 15% year-over-year growth, or 11% to 18% growth on a constant currency basis as our guidance assumes foreign currency is an approximately 3% headwind to year-over-year total revenue growth, based on current exchange rates.”
They wouldn’t give guidance for full-year revenues, but said “we expect the investments we are making in our core business this year will give us an opportunity to continue delivering strong revenue growth throughout 2025.”
Full-year capital expenditures are forecast at $60 billion to $65 billion to support “both our generative AI efforts and core business. The majority of our capital expenditures in 2025 will continue to be directed to our core business.”
Meta’s underlying statistics for the quarter were fine. Family daily active people averaged 3.35 billion in December, up 5% from 2023 to more than 40% of the global population. Family average revenue per person rose to $14.25 from a year-ago $12.33 and from the September quarter’s $12.29.
Click for larger graphic h/t Seeking Alpha
Ad impressions rose 6% in the fourth quarter, and average price per ad rose 14%. On a full-year basis, ad impressions rose 11% and price per ad rose 10%.
CEO Mark Zuckerberg said: “I expect this is going to be the year when a highly intelligent and personalized AI assistant reaches more than 1 billion people, and I expect Meta AI to be that leading AI assistant. Meta AI is already used by more people than any other assistant, and once a service reaches that kind of scale it usually develops a durable long-term advantage.
“We have a really exciting roadmap for this year with a unique vision focused on personalization. We believe that people don’t all want to use the same AI — people want their AI to be personalized to their context, their interests, their personality, their culture, and how they think about the world. I don’t think that there’s just going to be one big AI that everyone uses that does the same thing. People are going to get to choose how their AI works and what it looks like for them.
“I continue to think that this is going to be one of the most transformative products that we’ve made. We have some fun surprises that I think people are going to like this year.”
META is a Hold – Buy or add whenever it hits its lower Bollinger Band, now under $571.
Palantir (PLTR – $81.22) reports earnings on Monday after the close. The consensus expects revenues to be up 27.7% from last year to $776.84 million with earnings of 11¢ per share. March quarter guidance should be for $799.36 billion and a sequentially flat 11¢ – that seems low.
The stock fell 4.4% on DeepSeek Monday because…well, let’s see. Cheaper LLM models are bad for the leading AI software company? No, investors can’t be that dumb. LLMs are a commodity for Palantir AIP. It is model-agnostic and easy to swap them out or use them together. They know that, don’t they?
The Times of London wrote AI there, you’re nicked! Tech is reshaping how we fight crime subtitled “From facial recognition to sifting data and targeting suspects, AI is beginning to save police hours and transform our forces — but could be doing so much more.” They wrote: “Crimes are already being averted and solved. In the first eight days of the tool being deployed for child protection, the force identified an additional 123 young people who were potentially at risk of abuse or exploitation. There was a 67 per cent cut in the time taken to complete each safeguarding referral and the processing of telephone call data fell from 48 hours to three. The system, developed by the American data analytics firm Palantir, simultaneously extracts information from dozens of sources and creates an operational dashboard with Top Trumps-style profiles of suspects.
“Previously, investigators would have to search over 80 different databases looking for clues. Now, at the click of a mouse, they can see a summary of data from thousands of WhatsApp messages, documents and 999 calls. The AI compares phone records, locations, number plates and identities to draw links and build a chart of criminal associates — the modern-day equivalent of the white board with mug shots and pieces of string. In a fast-moving investigation, specialist officers can be automatically allocated tasks, ensuring that relevant people are in the right place at the right time. Detectives receive phone alerts when there is a development in the case.”
Dan Ives of Wedbush raised his target price from $75 to $90 and wrote:“We are raising our price target on Palantir from $75 to $90 as our recent checks and growing confidence in the company’s AI strategy is key to the bull thesis on Palantir for 2025. We believe Palantir has a path to become the next Oracle or Salesforce over the coming years, and while the valuation is expensive today, we see the ‘Messi of AI’ as a core winner in the trillions of AI spend over the next few years.”
The company wrote a blog post on The Cybernetic Enterprise: “The AI revolution is emerging at a crucial time for the Western world. The geopolitical chessboard is more complex than at any time since the fall of the Berlin Wall; institutions across the public and private sectors face a deepening legitimacy crisis; and as every enterprise fights to execute its essential mission, the pervasive feeling is that the last generation of technology investments have failed to meet their moment.
“Whether protecting the nation, producing food, or delivering medical care, the diagnosis is similar: daily operations have exploded in complexity, and technology has not kept pace. Core business systems have ossified into straitjackets that constrain frontline workers…
“The role of the operational user evolves as well, as the breadth and depth of AI expand. As agents manage steadily more end-to-end processes, human users gain increasing operational leverage. Their roles shift from being purely execution-centric to instead managing fleets of agents — and overseeing the integration of the feedback-based learning that is now being processed at machine speed.”
PLTR is a Buy under $22 for a $100+ target.
PayPal Holdings (PYPL – $89.57) was another winner on DeepSeek Monday, adding 1.3%. They will report earnings Tuesday morning. Wall Street wants to see revenues up 3.1% from 2024 to $8.28 billion and earnings of $1.12 per share. If they give March quarter guidance, it’s expected to be for $8.0 billion in revenues and $1.13 per share. PYPL is a Buy under $68 for a double in three years.
Snap (SNAP – $11.35) reports December quarter results on Tuesday after the close. Analysts expect $1.55 billion in revenues, up 13.8% from last year, and earnings of 14¢ per share. They expect March quarter guidance of $1.33 billion in revenues and only 4¢ earnings per share. SNAP is a Buy under $11 for a $17+ target.
Biotech MegaShift
If you can afford it – and it would not be too big a position in your portfolio – putting $2,000 into each of these speculative biotechs might be a good way to start. Buying these out-of-favor, fallen, or forgotten companies that can get important products through the FDA at very low market capitalizations seems like a good strategy to me.
Risks
Development-stage biotechs are subject to investor sentiment swings from wildly optimistic to excessively pessimistic – mostly the latter recently. After the Primary Risk for each company, I’ve added the clinical stage of their lead product, the probable time of their first FDA approval, and the probable time of their next financing.
As always, you need to think about an appropriate position size. You could buy a full position upfront and then just hold on, or buy some upfront and leave room to add more on the inevitable financings, transient clinical trial setbacks, and the like.
TG Therapeutics (TGTX – $33.36) 2025 revenues will smash expectations, according to this Seeking Alpha author. He points out that TG beat their 2024 revenue guidance by 24%. Their guidance for 2025 is $540 million, which implies slower growth, but CEO Mike Weiss’ comments at the J.P. Morgan conference and their fourth-quarter performance indicates sustained 15% to 20% new patient growth. That gives them the potential for significantly higher 2025 revenue, possibly over $600 million. Hold TGTX for a target price in a buyout of $40 or more.
Primary Risk:Briumvi, the MS drug, fails to sell.
Clinical stage of lead product: Approved
Probable time of next FDA approval: NM
Probable time of next financing: Never
Inflation MegaShift
Gold ($2,849.40) just hit a new all-time high as US users increase imports to beat any potential tariffs. The fractal dimension reversed course to indicate a new trend probably is starting. From an all-time high. With a full load of energy. Yum.
Miners & Related
Coeur Mining (CDE – $6.85) holds the special shareholders meeting next Thursday to approve the SilverCrest acquisition. Vote YES. CDE is a Buy under $5 for a $20 target as gold goes higher.
Primary Risk: Prices of precious metals fall due to US dollar strength.
First Majestic (AG – $5.99) announced positive drilling results from their 2024 exploration program at the San Dimas Silver and Gold Mine in Durango, Mexico. They intersected significant silver and gold mineralization in multiple veins across the San Dimas property. The drilling results successfully expanded Mineral Resources and will convert Inferred Mineral Resources to Indicated Mineral Resources, and ultimately to Mineral Reserves.
A Seeking Alpha contributor thinks the company scored A Major Plus In Acquiring Gatos Silver. It increases their annual production to 30 million to 32 million silver equivalent ounces while adding a positive free cash flow asset. AG is a Buy under $11 for a $23 next target price as production increases and the price of silver rises.
Primary Risk: Prices of precious metals fall due to US dollar strength.
Cryptocurrencies
Cryptocurrencies are a diversifying asset that offer a unique opportunity to make (or lose!) a lot of money quickly.
Bitcoin (BTC-USD on Yahoo – $105,114.56) made another new high last week and gold hit a new high today. Other than the crypto-friendly vibes of the new administration and hopes for a strategic bitcoin reserve (wishful thinking, in my view), there are fundamental reasons for the strength. The global money supply is ticking up again, and monetary inflation has tended to be a powerful driver for both gold and bitcoin.
Since his inauguration, President Trump has taken significant steps to position the US as a leader in the cryptocurrency industry. One of his first actions was signing an executive order titled “Strengthening American Leadership in Digital Financial Technology,” aimed at fostering innovation while ensuring regulatory clarity in the crypto space. The order outlines protections for public blockchain networks, encourages the development of US dollar-backed stablecoins, and explicitly prohibits the creation of a central bank digital currency. A Presidential Task Force on Digital Asset Markets, led by venture capitalist David Sacks, has been established to draft regulatory proposals.
Following on with the Fed funds/PMI chart I posted above in the Economy section, bitcoin tends to do best when the PMI is expanding:
Click for larger graphic h/t @bravosresearch
BTC-USD, ETH-USD, IBIT, and ETHA are Strong Buys.
Primary Risk: Bitcoin falls due to over-regulation or is surpassed by another cryptocurrency.
iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT- $59.72) remains the cheapest and easiest way to buy bitcoin. IBIT is a Buy for the 2028, 2032, and 2036 halvings.
Primary Risk:Bitcoin falls due to over-regulation or is surpassed by another cryptocurrency.
iShares Ethereum Trust (ETHA- $24.50) remains the cheapest and easiest way to buy ethereum. ETHA is a Buy.
Primary Risk:Ethereum falls due to over-regulation or is surpassed by another cryptocurrency.
Commodities
Oil – $72.99
Everyone had written off energy investing in 2025 due to the International Energy Agency’s erroneous forecast of abundant supplies this year, just as US shale oil production starts to roll over. Market participants are confident that March quarter balances will show a surplus, so once oil balances show little to no build, the consensus will look pretty dumb, especially given the low absolute storage environment backdrop.
US oil inventories are starting the year with total liquids declining by about 16 million barrels in January. Global oil inventories are at their lowest levels in recorded history.
Click for larger graphic h/t @ericnuttall
January 2025 is going to be the coldest January since 1988, which has resulted in higher than normal heating demand. In addition, the colder-than-normal weather has materially dampened US oil production to start the year. On top of that, seasonal strength is coming.
Click for larger graphic h/t @trend_bullish
The July 2026 Crude Oil Futures (CLN26.NYM – $65.94) are a Buy under $70 for a $200+ target. Only buy futures for all cash; do not use margin.
The United States 12 Month Oil Fund, LP (USL – $38.40) is a Buy under $40 for a $100+ target.
Vermilion Energy (VET – $9.50) sold $400 million of eight-year senior unsecured notes with a 7.25% coupon. They’ll use the money to repay the outstanding amount of their existing 5.625% senior notes due 2025, and fund a portion of the purchase price of the acquisition of Westbrick Energy. VET is a buy under $11 for a target price of $24 or more.
Primary Risk: Oil prices fall.
Energy Fuels (UUUU – $5.54) dropped after the DeepSeek announcement on the theory AI won’t need as much electricity, so less nuclear plants will come online. That’s wrong.
The company signed an agreement with the the Navajo Nation governing the transport of uranium ore along federal and state highways crossing the Navajo Nation. Ore transport from Energy Fuels’ Pinyon Plain Mine in northern Arizona to the company’s White Mesa Mill in southern Utah is now expected to resume in February. UUUU is a buy under $8 for a $30 target.
Primary Risk: Uranium prices fall.
EQT (EQT – $51.65) will be a major beneficiary of liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports.
EQT is a buy under $35 for a first target of $70 and a long-term hold for much higher prices.
Primary Risk:Natural gas prices fall.
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RIP Marianne Faithfull
(Written by Mick Jagger and Keith Richards)
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Click for larger graphic h/t @gave_vincent
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Your rethinking China Editor,
Michael Murphy CFA
Founding Editor
New World Investor
All Recommendations
Priced 1/30/25. Check out the complete Portfolio page HERE.
Buys
These are the stocks everyone needs to own because transformative events are happening over the next year or two, and I expect to hold them long-term.
Tech Dominators
Corning (GLW – $49.99) – Buy under $33, target price $60
Gilead Sciences (GILD – $96.95) – Buy under $90, first target price $120
Micron Technology (MU – $92.50) – Buy under $102, first target price $140
Nvidia (NVDA – $124.65) – Buy under $125, first target price $180
Onsemi (ON – $53.27) – Buy under $60, first target price $100
Palantir (PLTR – $81.22) – Buy under $22, target price $100+
PayPal (PYPL – $89.73) – Buy under $68, target price $136
Snap (SNAP – $11.35) – Buy under $11, target price $17+
SoftBank (SFTBY – $30.60) – Buy under $25, target price $50
Small Tech
Enovix (ENVX – $12.38) – Buy under $20; 4-year hold to $100+
First Trust NASDAQ Cybersecurity ETF (CIBR – $67.64) – Buy under $60; 3- to 5-year hold
Fastly (FSLY – $10.73) – Buy under $14; 3- to 5-year hold to $80+
PagerDuty (PD – $18.45) – Buy under $30; 2- to 5-year hold
QuickLogic (QUIK – $8.22) – Buy under $10, target price $40
Rocket Lab (RKLB – $28.53) – Buy under $13, target price $30+
$20-for-$1 Biotech
AbCellera Biologics (ABCL – $3.23) – Buy under $6, target $30+
Akebia Biotherapeutics (AKBA – $2.30) – Buy under $2, target $20
Compass Pathways (CMPS – $4.17) – Buy under $20, hold a long time for a 10x return
Editas Medicines (EDIT – $1.37) – Buy under $6 for a double in 12 months and a long-term hold to much higher prices
Inovio (INO – $2.09) – Buy under $14, hold a long time
Medicenna (MDNAF – $0.92) – Buy under $3, first target $20, then maybe $40
ScyNexis (SCYX – $1.10) – Buy under $3, target price $20, then $50
Inflation
A Short-Sale or REO House – ($415,400) – Hold
Bag of Junk Silver – ($32.77) – hold through silver bull market
Sprott Gold Miners ETF (SGDM – $31.62) – Buy under $28, target price $50
Sprott Junior Gold Miners ETF (SGDJ – $37.60) – Buy under $39, target price $100
Sprott Physical Gold and Silver Trust (CEF – $25.85) – Buy under $18, target price $30
Global X Silver Miners ETF (SIL – $35.27) – Buy under $30, target price $50
Coeur Mining (CDE – $6.85) – Buy under $5, target price $20
Dakota Gold (DC – $2.25) – Buy under $2.50, target price $6
First Majestic Mining (AG – $5.99) – Buy under $11, next target price $23
Paramount Gold Nevada (PZG – $0.38) – Buy under $1, first target price $10
Sandstorm Gold (SAND – $5.94) – Buy under $10, target price $25
Sprott Inc. (SII – $43.50) – Buy under $40, target price $70
Cryptocurrencies
Bitcoin (BTC-USD – $105,114.56 ) – Buy
iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT – $59.72) – Buy
Ethereum (ETH-USD – $3,268.19)– Buy
iShares Ethereum Trust (ETHA- $24.50) – Buy
Commodities
Crude Oil Futures – July 2026 (CLN26.NYM – $65.94 ) – Buy under $70; $200+ target
United States 12 Month Oil Fund, LP (USL – $35.40) – Buy under $40; $100+ target
Vermilion Energy (VET – $9.50) – Buy under $11; $24 target
Energy Fuels (UUUU – $5.54) – Buy under $8; $30 target
EQT (EQT – $51.65) – Buy under $35; $70 first target
Freeport McMoRan (FCX – $36.64) – Buy under $44; $65 target within two years
Holds
These are holds but not sells – yet. They could get moved back to one of the buy categories if their prices drop or outlook improves, or they could become sell recommendations in the future.
Apple Computer (AAPL – $237.59) – Expect to move back to Buy under $175 for new iPhones
Meta (META – $687.00) – Expect to move back to Buy
TG Therapeutics (TGTX – $33.36) – Hold for buyout at $40+
Publisher: GwynRose LLC, 5348 Vegas Drive, Suite 868, Las Vegas, NV 89108
New World Investor does not act as a personal investment adviser or advocate the purchase or sale of any security or investment for any specific individual. The recommendations and analysis presented to members are for the exclusive use of members. Members should be aware that investment markets have inherent risks and there can be no guarantee of future profits. Likewise, past performance does not assure future results. Recommendations are subject to change at any time. Nothing in this presentation should be considered personalized investment advice. No communication to you by Michael Murphy or any of our employees or contractors should be deemed as personalized investment advice.
Copyright ©GwynRoseLLC 2025
First
So….. on 3/2/2020 MM said “someone could buy SFTBY,CWBR, NVTA, SAND, KWEB and ACRGF and not look at them for 5 years and retire”.
SFTBY +46.06% CWBR -99.44%, NVTA bankrupt, SAND -13.91%,
KWEB -34.71%, ACRGF -50% ish hard to measure.
zman,
I wrote a reply on the flash alert page. You can guess who deleted it when I used foul language about what I thought about SCYX. Basically, GSK is in charge of everything pending about SCYX. The FDA story of the clinical hold is pure hogwash–who needs 1.5 years to get a new manufacturing plant for Brexa? GSK prudently withdrew Daprodustat from the US because of the high rate of hospitalization from the drug. GSK has more productive business than managing the problems with Dapro, and the same goes for the MARIO trial for a mediocre drug like Brexa. Except for its depleting cash value, SCYX is dead in the water. Maybe SCY 247 will save it in a few years.
Nearly all biotech stock is garbage. AKBA is different, but only because of TDAPA. TGTX has one of the rare drugs that is a leader. New money should go into AKBA. TGTX is already a 6 bagger. Maybe it is good for another double or triple at most.
Most of your comments are on point but @$1/share they seem to be fully incorporated in the stock price. SCYX does not seem to have some of the ingredients needed for a sudden corporate death like the CEO/Founder treating the stock like an ATM (ARTH), or an over the top debt load (NVTA). They apparently are not going to need new funding for 2 years and may receive milestone payments from GSK in the meantime. Your assumption on GSK’s lack of interest should be corroborated by an internal corporate memo detailing such things, but of course that would not be available if it existed. As tax loss selling ended with the new year the stock popped 50%; it quickly retraced that on low volume and it is now sitting near the bottom waiting for news, ANY news really. Given the non-existent expectations/bullishness anything that could be construed as even remotely positive would explode the stock 100%+, possibly much more than that to around the $3 level, making it the best MM’s idea on a short-term trading basis. So, the long term $20 or $50 targets may be of MM’s pie in the sky vintage, but $3? Definitely worth some betting cash.
MM – not liking what Im reading on this board or seeing in lack of news, price action on SCYX. Other than being below BV can you offer a good reason to keep my current SCYX bag and not take the loss and put it into AKBA? Youve been slow to bail on hopeless investments, we/I need less hope and more strategic advice. Is SCYX worth holding longer or time to move out?
You know what MM will say. Every mother is devoted to her problem child until the end. If I had no spare cash, I would take the loss on SCYX and put it into AKBA. IMO it is more likely that AKBA triples in the next year than SCYX. Yahoo Finance average analyst target is now $7.17, and that’s with low expectations for Vafseo sales in 2025. While Brexa is on hold, SCYX is depleting cash from no income. If it goes below $1, it will reverse split, which will kill it. As for me, I am holding my now tiny stake in SCYX. I put way too much money in it from many years ago when I had more hair on my head and less brains inside. Anything can happen, such as a black swan event like Trump dodging a bullet. SCYX may get MARIO going, but it is a stretch to believe that Brexa will make much money for invasive fungal infections. SCY 247 has more hope, although that is years away. I expect AKBA to reverse all my lifetime losses mostly from NWI faith. We may have to wait until mid June to get Q1 sales data. If sales are excellent as I expect, AKBA will triple then. Even TGTX is a better bet than SCYX.
My SCYX comments are above. Mostly agree with what you are saying. However, I would like to add that we are NOT in a good environment for Medical stocks, particularly Biotech. The bull market in Biotech ended in 2021 and we are in the doldrums at best, just look at the performance of XBI in 2024 and since January 1st., it is going absolutely nowhere.
Periods of high inflation like the present wreak havoc with VC type investments and Tech and Biotech type public companies with grandiose ideas but no sales or cash flows. So, you can indeed maintain small positions in these sectors but one’s attention and cash should be devoted to asset/cash flow rich companies and long term investments in Gold, commodities, resources and Real Estate.
Respectfully, I disagree. Gold is up 62% in the last two years and an historic deposit was recently discovered in China. Commodities and resources will do well and there are Real Estate steals to be had in Gaza, but at home, Florida and California are looking less and less desirable as climate change makes insurance costs unbearable.
I thought 2024 would be a good year for biotech and for those in the GLP-1 space it was, but many companies with fantastic potential had catalyzing events moved from 2024 into 2025. This year I would rather have a basket of tomorrows’ leaders like PLTR, NVDA, NGENF, MDNAF, CAPR and ACHV which will grow in value faster than those “safe” investments nominated by El Capitan.
I love that song by Marianne Faithful. RIP.
I’m with the others. What is going on with SCYX??
the production costs of 60s music videos must have been astronomical…
That Marianne Faithful video has got to be one of the most boring videos I have seen; worse than Yes’s “Leave It”. Why would anyone put much money into producing a video in the 60s when the demand for videos wasn’t created until the 80s?
Here’s one that never made it past the MTV censors:
https://youtu.be/FWQRDI7mTyw?t=1
It looks like we bot NVDA too soon. Shall we just hang on or will Trumps tarrifs kill us ?
I’ve been in NVDA since 12/19/18 on research based on postings by Dr. Helen Ong @Biopub (I only belonged for a year until they raised their price beyond it’s worth to me). Every share I have left has split 40 for 1 and cost me $3.59, but I’ve sold a few several times on the way up (including the last few at $151.63 as it slid off its latest high). At the height I had taken a little more money off the position than I had left in it but it was still my largest position, so I took this opportunity to trade some AUPH and a little CDE (the gold stock that has gone nowhere since just after it bought PZG while gold-the-metal has finally flourished after all that languish) for some NVDL, doubling the risk and potential profit of those shares I mean to hold short term (relatively — I’m willing to wait beyond next earnings report 2/26). It’s not a big bet (about a tenth of what I have left in the stock after crash) but my long term commitment to it has paid off well and revived my portfolio and personal finances after my biotech disaster here at NWI.
I asked MM about NVDA years ago (in an off board email about another matter) and he never responded directly but he subsequently recommended it at Boomberg. And now here. I’d stick with it without him, but I welcome his coverage and the added attention of his commentariat (youse guys).
I snagged NVDL at 47.93 @ 3:53 when NVDA was playing with 118; if it goes much lower than that I might be persuaded to trade some wonderfully inflated PLTR for a bit more, especially if that spikes up after earnings on Mon, but in the long run, as with NVDA, I want to own more, not less. Hope this helps.
StephKam, thanks for the NVDL reco. NVDA earnings are released 2/26, would you buy NVDL now before earnings? Which of the stocks you are following would you buy right now? Appreciate your insights.
I’m not sure. NVDA (and thus NVDL) did not go low enough for me to add, but if it were not my largest position I might’ve done so. I fully expect a “sell the news” response to good earnings but in those three weeks it could recover enough that the sell off wouldn’t even bring it back to where it is now. I’d like to add to PLTR and RKLB, but only at lower prices. Same with GLW, ENVX and IONQ (the last being a real gamble, as per MM’s comments, but especially after DeepSeek I think the public appetite for anything quantum will outweigh Jensen Huang’s warning and IONQ has Keith Fitzgerald’s recommendation as one of his “buy the best; ignore the rest” strategy). Since I don’t keep a cash reserve in my account I have to sell something when I buy and there’s not much of value I’d care to part with right now (NWI bio busts not with(any)standing), so I’m waiting for the next hairy-scary moment and inspiration to strike.
NVDA! Finally a stock whose combined NWI investment can’t be offset by a coupla wealthy shorts who hope to (have been?) profit by betting against MM.
president Trump’s order to release water from California reservoirs will result in a lack of water this summer for California growers. How can we invest now on a below-average harvest in California this year? btw, my picks for a Trump victory (NAK and GEO) were spot on. And while Senator Cassidy is voting for RFK to proceed as a nominee, Sen Klobucar is deep-frying Kash Patel.
nice move on call pltr
to those that think its to late to tgtx buy look at onyx a mm rec that got bought out buy amgen for $125 cash in 2013 as i recall mm had a lower pt. same for pcyc went for mutch higher target. so maybe tgtx is up 4 or 5 times at sp of 33 if it gets bought at 65 thats %100 from hear why would i buy akba hoping for 5x when i alreddy hold a winner that is wating on a buyout. read what the guy posted about nvta what if he heald insted of selling on the way up.? jest saying
dyodd
Sam so which would you buy today, TGTX or AKBA?
Short term picks. FVRR and FROG. FROG was up 10 percent today. DYODD. One to double by summer.
For those interedted, Cathy Woods just put out her annual BIG IDEAS annual research deck, heres a slide on her BTC projections
System wont let me attach slide photo, google her BIG IDEAS” as she covers several growth categories, her BTC projected 2030 price bear case is $300k (assuming only 1% corporate ownership) all the way to $1.5 mil assuming 6.5% corporate ownership
Any idea of what percentage of BTC is corporately owned currently. You’d think it’s already in excess of 1%.
Very few own yet
New World Investor for 2.6.25 is posted.