Dear New World Investor:

First up, I am overwhelmed with our move and starting our natural burial cemetery, so without many events for the next two weeks and the Fed done, I am going to schedule another two-week interval for New World Investor. The next issue will be on October 2, with September payrolls due the next day. Of course, I will send a Flash Alert for any hot news – if Micron wiffs, Amgen finally bids for Akebia (don’t sell right away), etc.

Yesterday, the Fed cut the expected 25bps (basis point, or ¼ of one percentage point) and signaled they’ll cut again at the October 29 and December 10 meetings. As long as the labor market is weak and inflation doesn’t accelerate above 3%, they’ll probably keep cutting in 2026. No surprise there, but as Chairman Powell said: “Ordinarily, when the labor market is weak, inflation is low. And when the labor market is really strong, that’s when you should be careful about inflation. We have a situation where we have two-sided risk. There’s no risk-free path.”

So true, including the risk of holding too much cash. Everybody has been waiting for the weak September, but many forgot that the year-end melt up starts in October. This bull market is approaching its third year anniversary in October, and history suggests it could have much further to run. Over my 50+ year investment career, bull markets lasting more than two years have gone on to last eight years, on average, with gains of 288%. Two major supports right now: (1) inflation, which pushes up stock prices, is around 3% a year, yet (2) the Fed is likely to keep lowering interest rates, which increases the discounted value of future corporate earnings.

Click for larger graphic h/t Factset

There are two near-term negatives: (1) we’re about to enter a mild recession if the Fed keeps pussyfooting, and (2) the VIX Fear & Greed Index seasonality is about to kick in, so the upward ride is not likely to be smooth.

Click for larger graphic h/t @EquityClock

Even with stocks at all-time highs, there are a lot more retail bears than bulls out there. Last week’s AAII Sentiment Survey showed only 28.0% bulls and nearly 50% bears, the most in four months. That improved this week, but still less than half – 41.7% – are bullish and there are more bears – 42.4% – than bulls. Markets top when almost everyone is bullish and there’s no one left to buy. We’re a long way from that.

Click for larger graphic h/t AAII Sentiment Survey

The professionals also are wrong-footed. Goldman Sachs says bullish positioning still remains light with equity sentiment still sitting below neutral in negative territory.

Click for larger graphic h/t @GoldmanSachs

One reason is the extremely low consumer confidence figures across all income cohorts. According to last Friday’s survey data from the University of Michigan: “Consumers continue to note multiple vulnerabilities in the economy, with rising risks to business conditions, labor markets, and inflation.” The 61.1 print for upper-income households for September is worse than the end of the Great Financial Crisis and as bad as the mid-2022 Covid dismay (purple line).

Click for larger graphic h/t DiMartinoBooth

The middle-income’s current 54.9 is even worse (orange line). The worst performer was lower income. Those with the least economic means saw sentiment decline from 52.8 to 48.2, the third lowest on record after July 2022 and May 1980 (teal line). Across the economic spectrum, Americans’ views are down in the dumps. A short, shallow recession is coming…or may already be here.

Market Outlook

The S&P 500 added 0.7% since last Thursday to new intraday and closing highs today. The Index is up 12.8% year-to-date, with underperforming hedge fund panic about to set in. The Nasdaq Composite gained 1.9% and, yes, to new intraday and closing highs today. It is up 16.4% for the year. The SPDR S&P Biotech Exchange-Traded Fund (XBI) climbed 1.2% as the stealth biotech bull market rolled on. It is only up 7.4% year-to-date, though. Seems like a good place for those underperforming hedge funds to catch up. The small-cap Russell 2000 booked +1.9% and is up 10.7% in 2025.

The fractal dimension still has a lot of energy to power a wow finish to 2025. I expect it will be out of gas around the end of the year, and maybe – maybe – be ready for a serious downturn. But for now, enjoy the ride.

Click for larger graphic

Top 5

Changes this week: None

Near-Term – chronological order
AKBA Akebia Therapeutics – Vafseo launch
SCYX ScyNexis – Resolution of GSK situation
EQT EQT – natural gas price rebound
USL United States 12 Month Oil Fund, LP – crude should rise quickly
FCX Freeport McMoRan – copper shortage

Long-Term – alphabetical order
ABCL AbCelllera – Will become a huge pharma royalty company
UUUU Energy Focus – Domestic uranium supplier
EQT EQT – largest US natural gas company
IBIT iShares Bitcoin Trust – Bitcoin is headed for $150,000
META Meta – a (the?) leader in the metaverse
PLTR Palantir – a (the?) leader in AI applications software
SCYX ScyNexis –First new antifungal in 20 years

Economy

The Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow model ticked up to +3.4% and then down a tenth to +3.3% on Wednesday’s housing starts release. That’s still a lot stronger than the Blue Chip Economists and the Fed expect. The first estimate comes October 30, a day after the next Fed announcement.

Click for larger graphic

Initial claims for state unemployment benefits decreased 33,000 this week to a seasonally adjusted 231,000, below the 240,000 consensus forecast. Claims last week had jumped to 264,000, a level last seen in October 2021. But as it turns out, that increase in applications was concentrated in Texas, with the state’s Workforce Commission later saying it had since the Labor Day holiday “observed an uptick in identity fraud claim attempts aimed at exploiting the unemployment insurance system.”

The steady trend in claims continues at a rate that is way too low to signal a recession and also undermines calls for more and bigger rate cuts, both at the Fed and in the markets.

Coming Events
All times below are ET, and most presentations and slides are archived on the companies’ websites so you can listen to them.

Saturday, September 20
SCYX – ScyNexis – 11:25am – 12th Congress on Trends in Medical Mycology

Monday, September 22
Fall Equinox – 8:19pm

Tuesday, September 23
DC – Dakota Gold – Through 9/24 – Money Show Virtual Expo – Metals & Mining Summit
MU – Micron – 4:30pm – Earnings conference call
MU – Micron – 6:00pm – Post-earnings analyst call

Wednesday, September 24
TGTX – TG Therapeutics – 8:55am – Oral presentation at European Committee for Treatment and Research in Multiple Sclerosis (ECTRIMS)
Short Interest – After the close

Thursday, September 25
No New World Investor this week!
June quarter GDP – 8:30am – third estimate

Friday, September 26
Personal Consumption Expenditures Index – 8:30am – The Fed’s favorite inflation indicator, and they’d love to see it slow down

Thursday, October 2
Next New World Investor

Friday, October 3
September payrolls – 8:30am

Big Tech: The Biotech & Digital Dominators MegaShift
There are at least four ways to make money in the stocks of these large, growing, dominant companies. You can:
* * Buy a stock and hold it
* * Buy a stock and write a call option against it
* * With a Level IV options account, write an out-of-the-money put option
* * With a Level IV options account, write an out-of-the-money put option and use part of the premium to buy an out-of-the-money call option

Apple (AAPL – $237.88) introduced new Apple Intelligence features, including Live Translation to help users communicate across select languages when messaging or speaking. It is seamlessly integrated into Messages, FaceTime, and Phone. In Messages, Live Translation can automatically translate a user’s response as they type and deliver it in the recipient’s language. During FaceTime calls, users can follow along with live translated captions while still hearing their friend or family member’s voice. During a phone call, the translation is spoken out loud in real time. By the end of 2025, Live Translation for Phone and FaceTime will expand language support to include Italian, Japanese, Korean, and Mandarin.

Another feature, Visual Intelligence, helps users search, take action, and answer questions about the content on their iPhone screen. They can find similar images across Google, as well as apps that integrate this experience, such as eBay, Poshmark, Etsy, and more. If there’s an object a user is interested in learning about, like a pair of shoes, they can simply press the same buttons used to take a screenshot and highlight it to search for that specific item or similar objects online. And with ChatGPT, users can ask questions about anything they’re viewing onscreen.

Apple is is steadily rolling out AI features at a pace that should keep their huge installed base happy and upgrading.

In the Primetime Emmy Awards, Apple had 22 wins including 13 for The Studio, which swept as the most-winning freshman comedy in Emmy history, and 8 for Severance as the most-winning drama. AAPL is a Buy under $205.

Meta Platforms (META – $780.25) went all-in on AI glasses this week at the Connect conference. CEO Mark Zuckerberg introduced Meta Ray-Ban Display glasses and the accompanying Meta Neural Band. The glasses put microphones, speakers, cameras, and a full-color, high-resolution display backed with compute and AI in a single device that’s stylish and comfortable. The display is placed off to the side, so it doesn’t obstruct your view – it’s there when you want it, and gone when you don’t. In a not-so-subtle slam art Apple, Zuck said: “ This isn’t about strapping a phone to your face.”

Each pair comes with a Meta Neural Band that translates the signals created by your muscle activity into commands for your glasses. You can control your experience intuitively using just subtle hand movements, without having to touch your glasses or take out your phone. It replaces the touchscreens, buttons, and dials of today’s technology with a sensor on your wrist, so you can silently scroll, click, and, in the near future, even write out messages using finger movements.

Zuck also introduced Oakley Meta Vanguard, a brand-new line of Performance AI glasses built for high-intensity sports – “Athletic Intelligence.” They include an action-ready camera, integrations with fitness apps like Garmin and Strava, immersive audio to elevate your workouts, and more. They are optimized to wear with cycling helmets and hats, and have an IP67 dust and water resistance rating. You can ask Meta AI how your pace is tracking or get updates on specific statistics in real time, all hands-free and screen-free so you can remain present while you train. The glasses can capture video to create a personal highlights reel.

Finally,Ray-Ban Meta glasses have become the #1 selling AI glasses in the world, with millions of units sold since launch. They introduced Ray-Ban Meta glasses (Gen 2) with extended battery life, 3K Ultra HD video capture, and new Meta AI features. META is a Buy under $705 for a long-term hold.

Micron (MU – $168.89) got a target price increase at Deutsche Bank from $166 to $175. Deutsche Bank said demand for Micron’s high bandwidth memory chips that power AI data centers remains red-hot, which is keeping supply tight and prices strong. Profit margins are expected to push above 50%. MU is a Buy under $125 for a $200 target.

Nvidia (NVDA – $176.24) dipped after the Financial Times reported that China’s internet regulator, the Cyberspace Administration of China, has banned the country’s biggest technology companies from buying Nvidia’s artificial intelligence chips, as Beijing steps up efforts to boost its domestic industry and compete with the US. ByteDance, Alibaba, and others were told to end their testing and orders of the RTX Pro 6000D, Nvidia’s tailor-made product for the country. Several companies had indicated they would order tens of thousands of the RTX Pro 6000D, and had started testing and verification work with Nvidia’s server suppliers. An anonymous executive at one of the big companies said: “The message is now loud and clear. Earlier, people had hopes of renewed Nvidia supply if the geopolitical situation improves. Now it’s all hands on deck to build the domestic system.”

CEO Jensen Huang, who knows how this game is played, told reporters that he expected to discuss Nvidia’s ability to do business in China with President Trump during the state visit to the UK. He diplomatically said: “We can only be in service of a market if the country wants us to be. I’m disappointed with what I see. But they have larger agendas to work out, between China and the US, and I’m understanding of that. We are patient about it.”

I have known and followed Jensen since Nvidia’s IPO. I assume the domestic GPU suppliers have copied enough of Nvidia’s current technology to make barely acceptable products. The mistake the Chinese are making is that Nvidia’s technology in two or three years will be different and better, letting the rest of the world surpass China’s AI ecosystem.

And that’s a good thing. I think President Trump is more likely to find a way to reward Nvidia for not selling to China than broker a deal. And speaking of the rest of the world surpassing China, Nvidia said The U.K.’s AI Action Opportunities Plan is driving investments in sovereign AI, using the technology to advance industries like manufacturing, life sciences, and more.

Click for larger graphic h/t U.K. AI Action Opportunities Plan

Nvidia is working with a broad ecosystem of AI makers across the UK on applications in physical and agentic AI, robotics, and healthcare. Isambard-AI, the U.K.’s most powerful AI supercomputer funded by U.K. Research and Innovation and built on Grace Hopper Superchips, is accelerating national projects including:

* * UK-LLM, a large language model that uses Nvidia Nemotron reasoning models to support national languages like Welsh, as well as English, to improve public service delivery in sectors like healthcare and education.
* * Nightingale AI, a sovereign, multimodal health foundation model trained on UK and US health data, which is designed to be used for numerous health applications including earlier diagnoses and personalized care.
* * PolluGen, a new high-resolution pollution dispersion model that can use regional health and other data to help inform citizens and policymakers of air-quality impacts.
* * The Ultrasound Foundation Model focused on rheumatoid arthritis patient analysis to create a reproducible, publicly accessible AI model for medical imaging.
* * Gen Model in Ego-Sensed World is analyzing visual data from more than 900 participants to train an AI model to better understand everyday tasks. The model could help predict future real-world interactions and support memory to aid independent living for dementia patients.
* * Electrostatics-aware foundation models, developed by researchers at the University of Cambridge in collaboration with Nvidia. These are being trained as the first foundation models for atomic interactions that understand electrostatics in chemistry at the atomic level. To do this, the researchers are using more than 200 million molecular and material structures from the OMOL and OMAT databases with Nvidia’s cuEquivariance library. The model will allow scientists to simulate materials and molecules that were previously too large or complex to handle.

Jensen says the UK will be an AI superpower.

Of course, the implication is that other countries that partner with Nvidia can do the same. Good luck, Xi Jinping (not really). NVDA is a Hold for a $180 first target.

Palantir (PLTR – $176.97) announced it has achieved Cybersecurity Maturity Model Certification (CMMC) Level 2. This certification validates Palantir’s robust cybersecurity posture and its ability to handle Controlled Unclassified Information (CUI) for US Department of War contracts and other federal government programs. It confirms the company’s ability to protect sensitive government data while supporting critical national security missions.

And for your viewing pleasure, CEO Alex Karp on America’s real advantage:

PLTR is a Buy under $160 for a $200 first target.

PayPal Holdings (PYPL – $68.52) and Google signed a multiyear strategic partnership designed to revolutionize commerce with innovative solutions that transform how businesses and consumers transact across platforms and devices. Combining their expertise and scale, the companies aim to deliver frictionless digital commerce experiences and set a new standard for commerce ecosystem innovation.

Sundar Pichai, CEO of Google and Alphabet, said: “Through this partnership, PayPal will use our industry-leading AI to enhance services and security, and we will more deeply integrate PayPal’s innovative payment capabilities for a better experience across Google products and platforms.”

Well, maybe. I have a pretty negative view of Google’s future and Pichai’s leadership, but they are huge and will take a long time to become irrelevant. I think PayPal CEO Alex Chriss is smart enough to take advantage of the potential positives without getting sucked into the whirlpool as Google slowly sinks. He said: “We are bringing PayPal’s products and services to billions of Google users and redefining what’s possible at global scale.”

PayPal also introduced PayPal links, a new peer-to-peer (P2P) experience to send and receive money through a personalized, one-time link that can be shared in any conversation. Crypto will soon be directly integrated into the app. This will make it more convenient for PayPal users to send bitcoin, ethereum, PYUSD, and more, to PayPal, Venmo, and a rapidly growing number of digital wallets across the world that support crypto and stablecoins.

How PayPal links work:

1. Create a personalized link – Open the PayPal app, enter the details of your payment or request, and generate a unique, one-time link to share.
2. Always the right person – Each link is private, one-time use, and created for a specific transaction.
3. Drop it anywhere – Send your link in a text, DM, email, or chat. Add a note, emoji, or payment note.
4. Manage payment activity – Unclaimed links expire after 10 days. Users can send a reminder or even cancel the payment or request before the link is claimed with the PayPal app.
5. Tap and done – The recipient taps the link and either completes or accepts the payment within the PayPal App with their PayPal account.
6. Funds are instant – the recipient will get immediate access to their funds with a PayPal Balance account once accepted.

As always, friends-and-family transfers through Venmo and PayPal are exempt from 1099-K reporting. Users won’t receive tax forms for gifts, reimbursements, or splitting expenses, helping ensure that personal payments stay personal. PYPL is a Buy under $75 for a double in three years.

SoftBank (SFTBY – $62.10) again gave Moody’s Japan a hard time about their unsolicited rating. They wrote: “On September 17, 2025, Moody’s Japan K.K. (“Moody’s”) issued a release regarding SoftBank Group Corp. (“SBG”) titled “Moody’s Ratings upgrades SoftBank Group’s corporate family rating to Ba2 from Ba3; revises outlook to stable from positive,” authored by Mariko Semetko and Ryohei Nishio. We reaffirm that SBG has not obtained any credit ratings from Moody’s.

“Since withdrawing our request for ratings on March 25, 2020, we have neither provided any information to Moody’s regarding their ratings, nor received any requests for information or inquiries from them for over five years. Moody’s opinions are therefore based solely on their subjective assumptions and hypotheses, with no reasonable factual basis. Since March 2020, we have repeatedly requested that Moody’s remove the unsolicited ratings and change their publication method to avoid any misinterpretation by investors as granted credit ratings.

“We have strongly protested this in the past and, once again, reiterate our request that Moody’s immediately cease the publication of unsolicited credit ratings about SBG that fail to reflect our true state.

“Moody’s justifies the issuance of unsolicited credit ratings by citing the ‘benefit of providing information for market participants’ and claiming that ‘sufficient information has been and continues to be available for the assignment and maintenance of its ratings of SBG.’ However, discussions with market participants reveal that Moody’s unsolicited credit ratings are not perceived as beneficial information. Moreover, factual inaccuracies in Moody’s analysis further demonstrate that neither of their criteria has been met.

“The continued publication of unsolicited ratings by Moody’s over the past five years risks misleading investors in their decision-making processes. SBG is exploring all available options, including the possibility of legal action and consultation with regulatory authority, to address this issue.”

I don’t remember what Moody’s did to get on Masa’s wrong side, but if I were them I’d give up. SFTBY is a Buy under $35 for a first target of $50 and then higher as the discount to hard book value disappears.

Small Tech

Enovix (ENVX – $9.96) Korea won one of the 100 Best Workplaces of Korea for Job Creation award by the Ministry of Employment and Labor. It was selected for its outstanding employee-focused policies, including performance-based profit-sharing compensation, an employee stock purchase plan, and transparent open communications through all-hands meetings, round tables, and company memos. Enovix Korea was also recognized for innovative reward and recognition programs, continued employment opportunities for top-performing employees, and incentive compensation practices that encourage day-to-day business innovation.

I saw in the comments that subscribers don’t like the non-disclosure agreements that Enovix has to sign with their largest customers. I don’t like them either, and I’ll tell you who really doesn’t like them: Enovix management, because their stock would be twice this price if they could name them. But if they don’t sign, they don’t get the contract.

Once a product ships, the tear-down experts will race to be first with the news that there’s an Enovix battery in it. From the new corporate presentation (SLIDES HERE), there are several of those coming:

Click for larger graphic

ENVX is a Buy up to $20 for a 4-year hold to $100+ as their BrakeFlow lithium-ion battery takes market share.
Primary Risk: A new competitor invents a better battery.

Biotech MegaShift

If you can afford it – and it would not be too big a position in your portfolio – putting $2,000 into each of these speculative biotechs might be a good way to start. Buying these out-of-favor, fallen, or forgotten companies that can get important products through the FDA at very low market capitalizations seems like a good strategy to me.

Risks

Development-stage biotechs are subject to investor sentiment swings from wildly optimistic to excessively pessimistic – mostly the latter recently. After the Primary Risk for each company, I’ve added the clinical stage of their lead product, the probable time of their first FDA approval, and the probable time of their next financing.

As always, you need to think about an appropriate position size. You could buy a full position upfront and then just hold on, or buy some upfront and leave room to add more on the inevitable financings, transient clinical trial setbacks, and the like.

Akebia Therapeutics (AKBA- $2.96) is expected to report September quarter revenues of $52.06 million and December quarter revenues of $54.1 million. Obviously, Vafseo revenues are growing faster than that, especially with large shipments to the DaVita pilot this quarter and then to the whole DaVita system in the December quarter. The modest expected growth is a function of how fast Auryxia sales decline, which have been a pleasant surprise so far.

I think the next surprise will be that regardless of Auryxia sales, Vafseo’s rapid revenue growth will drive the stock. Buy AKBA up to $4 for the Vafseo launches in the EU, UK, and US. I think GSK and/or Amgen will make a bid for the company.
Primary Risk: Vafseo doesn’t sell in the US.
   Clinical stage of lead product: Approved
   Probable time of next approval: 2026
   Probable time of next financing: Never

Compass Pathways (CMPS – $5.08) completed their hat trick. After their September 4 presentation at the Cantor Global Healthcare Conference and September 9 at the Morgan Stanley Global Healthcare Conference, this week much of the team (CEO Kabir Nath, CMO Dr. Guy Goodwin, CCO Lori Englebert, and SVP: Investor Relations Stephen Schultz did a fireside chat at TD Cowen’s Novel Mechanisms in Neuropsychiatry & Epilepsy Summit (AUDIO HERE). The company explained for the nth time that their strategy of using a one milligram dose of COMP360 as the comparator instead of a placebo and offering psychological support as needed but not a required part of the treatment should meet the FDA’s requirements. CMPS is a Buy under $10 for a very long-term hold to $200.
Primary Risk: Their drugs fail in the clinic.
   Clinical stage of lead product: Phase 3
   Probable time of first FDA approval: 2028
   Probable time of next financing: Late 2025

Inflation MegaShift

Gold ($3,677.60) hit an intraday high over $3,700 today and booked a closing high at $3,688.90 on Tuesday. Since the early 2000s, it has consistently rallied both into and following the onset of Fed cuts, returning double-digit cumulative returns over the nine months following the start of recent Fed cutting cycles. I expect that to happen again. Even though technicians tell me gold is “overbought” short-term, developed market exchange-traded fund holdings are still 17 million troy ounces below the 2020 peak. That means more retail buying ahead.

Click for larger graphic h/t @themarketear

And while silver is closing in on its nominal all-time high near $50 due to the Hunt brothers short squeeze, it remains well below its high when adjusted for inflation. As the chart below shows, when accounting for consumer price index inflation, silver would need to trade above $200 per ounce to reach its peak set in 1980.

Click for larger graphic h/t Porter and Co.

The gold fractal dimension, like the S&P, still has a lot of energy to power a wow finish to 2025. Even though it makes me nervous when things look this good, it makes sense that both stocks and precious metals go up when the Fed is cutting, the dollar is weak, and inflation is an issue.

Click for larger graphic

Miners & Related

Coeur Mining (CDE – $16.28) presented at Mining Forum Americas and, as usual, violated SEC Rule FD by refusing to post the audio of their presentation, although they did post the presentation (SLIDES HERE). To be fair, because it was the usual general backgrounder, I don’t much care.

Click for larger graphic

They said that with the addition of Las Chispas, the expansion of Rochester, and the power of a well-balanced portfolio, coupled with higher metals prices, Coeur is undergoing a step-change in its production, cash flow, and margin profile. Yes, that is why we own your stock. Duh.

After many years of heavy investment, Coeur is on track to deliver peer-leading return on invested capital in 2025 driven by strong production growth from Rochester, the addition of Las Chispas, consistent performance from their other mines, and – most important – high metals prices. CDE is a Buy under $10 for a $20 target as gold goes higher.
Primary Risk: Prices of precious metals fall due to US dollar strength.

Dakota Gold (DC – $4.57) also presented at Mining Forum Americas, and CEO Robert Quartermain did post the AUDIO HERE and SLIDES HERE.

Richmond Hill is about two miles north of Coeur’s Wharf Mine, and Quartermain does a great job of coat-tailing on that mine’s success. He expects to be in production in 2029.

Click for larger graphic

He showed this great slide comparing the relative positioning of US heap-leach developer peer projects based on after-tax Net Present Value ($ millions) versus after-tax Internal Rate of Return (%) versus heap-leachable gold resource (bubble size).

Click for larger graphic

DC is a Hold for a $6 target as gold goes higher.
Primary Risk: Robert Quartermain doesn’t find enough gold. Secondary risk: Prices of precious metals fall due to US dollar strength.

Sandstorm Gold (SAND – $11.72) will hold the shareholders meeting on October 9 to vote on the Royal Gold acquisition. You should get your proxy materials soon, Vote YES. SAND is a Hold for the Royal Gold acquisition.
Primary Risk: Prices of precious metals fall due to US dollar strength.

Cryptocurrencies

Cryptocurrencies are a diversifying asset that offer a unique opportunity to make (or lose!) a lot of money quickly.

Bitcoin (BTC-USD on Yahoo – $117,631.49) is moving steadily higher. The irrepressible Winklevoss twins were on CNBC talking their book again, saying we are at the “bottom of the first inning” and they see bitcoin reaching $1,000,000 a coin in 10 years. That could happen, but I guarantee you it will not be a straight shot up.

Click for larger graphic

BTC-USD, ETH-USD, IBIT, and ETHA are Strong Buys.
Primary Risk: Bitcoin falls due to over-regulation or is surpassed by another cryptocurrency.

iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT- $66.75) remains the cheapest and easiest way to buy bitcoin. IBIT is a Buy for the 2028, 2032, and 2036 halvings.
Primary Risk:Bitcoin falls due to over-regulation or is surpassed by another cryptocurrency.

iShares Ethereum Trust (ETHA- $34.73) remains the cheapest and easiest way to buy ethereum. ETHA is a Buy for the coming explosion in token-funded start-ups.
Primary Risk: Ethereum falls due to over-regulation or is surpassed by another cryptocurrency.

Commodities

Oil – $63.64

Oil has been stuck in the low $60s while the market tries to figure out if OPEC+ exports are about to increase sharply (they’re not) or a big recession is about to kill demand (it’s not). The Energy (Dis)Information Administration reported a huge crude oil drawdown this week of 9.3 million barrels, but I don’t believe it. It’s probably just one of their periodic adjustments of their crappy guesstimates to something approaching reality. US crude production isn’t growing, but it’s holding up better than I expected near 14 million barrels a day. I still expect it to decline as existing shale wells decline and aren’t replaced due to low prices.

The July 2026 Crude Oil Futures (CLN26.NYM – $62.05) are a Buy under $70 for a $200+ target. Only buy futures for all cash; do not use margin.

The United States 12 Month Oil Fund, LP (USL – $36.00) is a Buy under $40 for a $100+ target.

Vermilion Energy (VET – $7.81) is a Buy under $11 for a target price of $24 or more.
Primary Risk: Oil prices fall.

EQT (EQT – $49.39) is well-positioned as the biggest and best fully integrated natural gas producer to power the next decade or two in the US and Europe, until nuclear gets here for real.

Even the UK is catching on, sort of. William Clouston, leader of their tiny Social Democratic Party, wrote the foreword to Abundant Energy, a 60-page document that Doomberg said “might be the sanest thing we’ve read from a British political outfit in years.”

Clouston wrote: “That this Green Paper exists is a tragedy. For decades, Britain has sleepwalked into an abyss which has made us poorer, weaker, and gutted our industrial base. The heart of this is a self-induced energy crisis which has been catastrophic for our welfare and security. Britons now suffer the highest energy prices in the developed world, with our collective wealth continually drained to fund vast energy imports.

“How did Britain—an energy rich nation—sink into an energy crisis? We argue below that the causes were part indifference, part profiteering, and part lunacy. And it happened because of pretense: an ill-fated attempt to ignore the material world. But as we are finding out, the material world matters, production matters, and tangible needs matter.”

If the UK figures it out, can Germany be far behind? And then the rest of Europe? EQT is a buy under $70 for a long-term hold for much higher prices.
Primary Risk:Natural gas prices fall.

Freeport McMoRan (FCX – $44.93) said on September 8 that a large flow of mud from a production drawpoint occurred at one of five production blocks in the Grasberg Block Cave underground mine in Central Papua, Indonesia. The incident blocked access to certain areas within the mine, restricting evacuation routes for seven team members. They thought they knew the location of the workers, and they were believed to be safe.

But as of today, 11 days later, the seven are still trapped. In parallel with ongoing efforts to clear the blocked access routes, Freeport has successfully drilled into a number of locations in the service level, including near a refuge chamber close to the work area. But they have not been able to locate the workers, who most likely are dead.

FCX is a buy under $50 for a $70 target within two years.
Primary Risk: Copper prices fall.

* * * * *

RIP Robert Redford

* * * * *

Your learning about the Earth’s inner core Editor,

Michael Murphy CFA
Founding Editor
New World Investor

All Recommendations

Priced 09/18/25. Check out the complete Portfolio page HERE.

Buys
These are the stocks everyone needs to own because transformative events are happening over the next year or two, and I expect to hold them long-term.

Tech Dominators
  Apple Computer (AAPL – $237.88) – Buy under $205
  Gilead Sciences (GILD – $113.62) – Buy under $115, first target price $150
  Meta (META – $780.25) – Buy under $705 for a long-term hold
  Micron Technology (MU – $168.89) – Buy under $125, target price $200
  Onsemi (ON – $51.83) – Buy under $60, first target price $100
  Palantir (PLTR – $176.97) – Buy under $160 for $200 first target price
  PayPal (PYPL – $68.52) – Buy under $75, target price $150
  Snap (SNAP – $8.44) – Buy under $11, target price $17+
  SoftBank (SFTBY – $62.10) – Buy under $35, target price $50+

Small Tech
  Enovix (ENVX – $9.96) – Buy under $20; 4-year hold to $100+
  First Trust NASDAQ Cybersecurity ETF (CIBR – $76.96) – Buy under $75; 3- to 5-year hold
  Fastly (FSLY – $8.95) – Buy under $10 for a 3- to 5-year hold to $50+
  PagerDuty (PD – $16.43) – Buy under $30; 2- to 5-year hold
  QuickLogic (QUIK – $6.05) – Buy under $10, target price $40
  ARK Venture Fund (ARKVX – $39.74) – Buy for SpaceX

$20-for-$1 Biotech
  AbCellera Biologics (ABCL – $4.72) – Buy under $6, target $30+
  Akebia Biotherapeutics (AKBA – $2.96) – Buy under $4, target $20
  Compass Pathways (CMPS – $5.08) – Buy under $10, hold a long time for a 20x return
  Editas Medicines (EDIT – $3.00) – Buy under $6 for a double in 12 months and a long-term hold to much higher prices
  Inovio (INO – $2.31) – Buy under $5, hold a long time
  Medicenna (MDNAF – $0.72) – Buy under $3, first target $20, then maybe $40
  ScyNexis (SCYX – $1.09) – Buy under $2.50, target price $20, then $50
  TG Therapeutics (TGTX – $32.61) – Buy under $30 for buyout at $40+

Inflation
  A Short-Sale or REO House – ($415,400) – Hold
  Bag of Junk Silver – ($42.11) – hold through silver bull market
  Sprott Gold Miners ETF (SGDM – $56.39) – Buy under $50, target price $75
  Sprott Junior Gold Miners ETF (SGDJ – $64.00) – Buy under $60, target price $100
  Sprott Physical Gold and Silver Trust (CEF – $34.06) – Buy under $35, target price $60
  Global X Silver Miners ETF (SIL – $64.10) – Buy under $60, target price $100
  Coeur Mining (CDE – $16.28) – Buy under $10, target price $20
  First Majestic Mining (AG – $9.94) – Buy under $11, next target price $23
  Paramount Gold Nevada (PZG – $1.11) – Buy under $1, first target price $10

Cryptocurrencies
  Bitcoin (BTC-USD – $117,631.49) – Buy
  iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT – $66.75) – Buy
  Ethereum (ETH-USD – $4,573.54)– Buy
  iShares Ethereum Trust (ETHA- $34.73) – Buy

Commodities
  Crude Oil Futures – July 2026 (CLN26.NYM – $62.05) – Buy under $70; $200+ target
  United States 12 Month Oil Fund, LP (USL – $36.00) – Buy under $40; $100+ target
  Vermilion Energy (VET – $7.81) – Buy under $11; $24+ target
  Energy Fuels (UUUU – $14.10) – Buy under $8; $30 target
  EQT (EQT – $49.39) – Buy under $70; hold for much higher prices ($100+)
  Freeport McMoRan (FCX – $44.93) – Buy under $50; $70 target within two years

Holds
These are holds but not sells – yet. They could get moved back to one of the buy categories if their prices drop or outlook improves, or they could become sell recommendations in the future.
  Corning (GLW – $79.62) – Hold for $70
  Nvidia (NVDA – $176.24) – Hold for $180 first target price
  Dakota Gold (DC – $4.57) – Hold for $6 target price
  Sandstorm Gold (SAND – $11.72) – Hold for Royal Gold acquisition

Publisher: GwynRose LLC, 5348 Vegas Drive, Suite 868, Las Vegas, NV 89108

New World Investor does not act as a personal investment adviser or advocate the purchase or sale of any security or investment for any specific individual. The recommendations and analysis presented to members are for the exclusive use of members. Members should be aware that investment markets have inherent risks and there can be no guarantee of future profits. Likewise, past performance does not assure future results. Recommendations are subject to change at any time. Nothing in this presentation should be considered personalized investment advice. No communication to you by Michael Murphy or any of our employees or contractors should be deemed as personalized investment advice.

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