Dear New World Investor:
Stocks broke their downtrend yesterday after the Fed’s Beige Book cited softening demand and moderating price growth. Economic activity was downgraded to “stagnating” or “unchanged” after July’s “modest expansion,” with five Districts reporting slight to modest growth in activity and five others reporting slight to modest softening, as “residential real estate conditions weakened noticeably as home sales fell in all twelve Districts,” “residential loan demand was weak amid elevated mortgage interest rates,” and “residential construction remained constrained.”
While the slowdown in the economy was good, the outright “moderation in price levels” in nine of 12 districts while the “outlook for future economic growth remained generally weak, with contacts noting expectations for further softening of demand over the next six to twelve months” was positively great, and stocks jumped.
But today, Fed Chairman Powell said the Fed is “strongly committed” to fighting inflation and hopes it can be done without the “very high social costs” of the Volker era. He said: “We need to act now, forthrightly, strongly as we have been doing, and we need to keep at it until the job is done. The Fed has and accepts responsibility for price stability. My colleagues and I are strongly committed to this project and we will keep at it until the job is done.”
Vice Chair Lael Brainard said of the July drop in overall inflation and the softer core inflation reading: “While the moderation in monthly inflation is welcome, it will be necessary to see several months of low monthly inflation readings to be confident that inflation is moving back down to 2%.”
Yesterday, Nick Timiraos of The Wall Street Journal, the designated leak channel for all things Fed, wrote that “Fed Chair Jay Powell’s public pledge to reduce inflation even if it increases unemployment appears to have put the central bank on a path to raise interest rates by 0.75 percentage point rather than 0.50 point this month.”
Tightening at a record pace into a global growth collapse. What could go wrong?
Of course, the stock market has discounted a 75 basis point increase on September 21, more interest rate increases, a recession, and lower earnings. Analysts made the largest cuts to third-quarter earnings estimates for S&P 500 companies through the first two months of a quarter in more than two years.
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Yet the Index still is up 10.2% from its June 17 intraday low. The S&P has never set a lower low in any of the 13 post-World War II bear markets after recovering 50% of its peak-to-trough decline.
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And this rally is still hated. Jason Goepfert of SentimenTrader wrote: “Sometimes, there’s a chart that just blows your hair back. In 22 years of doing this, none stand out like this one. Last week, institutional traders bought $8.1 billion worth of put options. They bought less than $1 billion in calls. This is 3x more extreme than 2008.”
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The S&P 500 added 1.0% since last Thursday to regain the 4000 level today. The Index has been below its 200-day moving average for more than 100 trading days, the longest streak since the Great Financial Crisis. It is down 15.9% year-to-date. The Nasdaq Composite gained 0.7% but is down 24.2% for the year. The small-cap Russell 2000 moved up 1.1% and is down 17.9% in 2022.
The fractal dimension will be fully consolidated by the time the Consumer Price Index is reported next Tuesday morning. That means there will be enough fractal energy to support a meaningful trend either up or down. Hmm, time to buy both puts and calls on the S&P?
Top 5
Changes this week: Changed the reason for AAPL
Near-Term – chronological order
AAPL Apple – New iPhone preorders
OIL iPath Pure Beta Crude Oil Exchange-Traded Note – crude should rise quickly
GBTC Grayscale Bitcoin Trust – Bitcoin is coming out of one of its periodic sharp drops
META Meta – Bounce from overdone selloff
VLD Velo3D – Rapid revenue growth; low market cap
Long-Term – alphabetical order
GRPH Graphite Bio – second-generation genetic editing
NVTA Invitae – the winner-take-most of genetic testing
META Meta – a leader in the metaverse
RKLB Rocket Lab – #2 to SpaceX in space
VLD Velo3D – Return manufacturing to the US
Economy
The Atlanta Fed GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth in the September quarter fell sharply from +2.6% on September 1 to +1.4% due to weakness in personal consumption expenditures growth, private domestic investment growth, and government spending growth. It now is in line with the Blue Chip economist consensus.
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We probably won’t have a negative September quarter final print, but we’re still in a recession. 2001 was an official recession, and the real GDP growth by quarters that year were: Q1: -1.3%, Q2: +2.5%, Q3: -1.6%, Q4: +1.1%. Even if there aren’t back-to-back negative quarters, the National Bureau for Economic Research can still label this a recession.
Virus Update
I wanted to take a quick look at how we are doing. Worldometers now shows 612,254,930 worldwide confirmed infections, of which 596,585,393 have run their course. Of those, 590,075,080 recovered and 6,510,313 died – a case fatality rate of 1.1%.
In the US, there have been 96,870,378 confirmed infections, of which 93,885,977 have run their course. Of those, 92.811,806 recovered and 1,074,171 died, also a case fatality rate of 1.1%.
The recent uptick in daily cases peaked on July 22 at 132,652 and they are down to 58,590:
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Hospitalizations peaked on July 30 at 37,685 and are down to 29,359.
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Daily deaths peaked on August 7 at 585 and are down to 245 just one month later.
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Coming Events
All times below are ET, and most presentations and slides are archived on the companies’ websites so you can listen to them.
Saturday, September 9
SCYX – ScyNexis – 5:30pm – Mycoses Study Group Education and Research Consortium biennial meeting
Sunday, September 10
SCYX – ScyNexis – 4:00am – International Immunocompromised Host Society (ICHS)
ACRDF – Acreage Holdings – 10:30am – New Jersey Cannabis Convention
Monday, September 11
Tuesday, September 12
INO – Inovio -7:00am – H.C. Wainwright Global Investment Conference
MDNA – Medicenna -7:00am – H.C. Wainwright Global Investment Conference
AKBA – Akebia -7:00am – H.C. Wainwright Global Investment Conference
QUIK – QuickLogic -7:00am – H.C. Wainwright Global Investment Conference
AG – First Majestic -7:00am – H.C. Wainwright Global Investment Conference
Short Interest – After the close
Wednesday, September 13
RKLB – Rocket Lab – Unspec. – RBC Global Industrials Conference
NVTA – Invitae – 8:00am – Morgan Stanley Global Healthcare Conference
Consumer Price Index – 8:30am
GILD – Gilead – 10:35am – Morgan Stanley Global Healthcare Conference
APTO – Aptose – 11:30am – H.C. Wainwright Global Investment Conference
GRPH – Graphite Bio – 12:55pm – Morgan Stanley Global Healthcare Conference
GLW – Corning – 2:30pm – Goldman Sachs Communacopia + Technology Conference
ACRDF – Acreage Holdings – 4:30pm – Benzinga Cannabis Capital Conference
Thursday, September 14
RKLB – Rocket Lab – Unspec. – Morgan Stanley Laguna Conference
CMPS – Compass Pathways – 11:45am – Morgan Stanley Global Healthcare Conference
GILD – Gilead – 9:40am – Baird Global Healthcare Conference
Friday, September 15
RKLB – Rocket Lab – Unspec. – Aerospace & Middle Market Conference
The $20-For-$1 Stocks
Say you put $2,000 into a stock that goes from 50¢ a share to $10. The $2,000 turns into $40,000. Then you put the $40,000 into another stock that goes from 50¢ to $10. That turns the $40,000 into $800,000. You did it with two stocks, and never risked going negative more than $2,000. (Not that you won’t be mad at me if the first one works and then the second one doesn’t, taking your $40,000 to Money Heaven.)
If you can afford it – and it would not be too big a position in your portfolio – putting $2,000 into each of these 12 speculative biotechs might be a good way to start.
The market capitalizations of these recommendations are typically very low. At the same time, Initial Public Offering valuations had moved very high. We were seeing $750 million to $900 million valuations for a good preclinical/Phase 1 IPO, and even $300 million to $500 million for mediocre Phase 1s. I don’t see how investors make 5x to 10x in a reasonable, three- to four-year period if they buy at those valuations. How many biotechs have moved north of $10 billion within 5 years after pricing an IPO in the $700 million to $900 million range? Hardly any. Buying these out-of-favor, fallen, or forgotten companies that can get important products through the FDA at very low market capitalizations seems like a much better strategy to me.
Risks
Development-stage biotechs are subject to investor sentiment swings from wildly optimistic to excessively pessimistic – mostly the latter recently. After the Primary Risk for each company, I’ve added the clinical stage of their lead product, the probable time of their first FDA approval, and the probable time of their next financing.
As always, you need to think about an appropriate position size. You could buy a full position upfront and then just hold on, or buy some upfront and leave room to add more on the inevitable financings, transient clinical trial setbacks, and the like.
Algernon Pharmaceuticals (AGNPF – $4.75) will be the headline sponsor for the Wonderland Psychedelic Conference in Miami in early November. They said they have completed the intravenous formulation that will be used in the Phase 1 DMT study for stroke recovery. They applied for ethics and clinical trial approval and expect to have a response shortly. AGNPF is a Hold for the Phase 2b IPF/chronic cough results.
Primary Risk: Ifenprodil fails in clinical trials.
Clinical stage of lead product: Phase 2/3
Probable time of first FDA approval: 2023
Probable time of next financing: 2022
Arch Therapeutics (ARTH – $0.02) launched a multi-site clinical study designed to accelerate payer adoption and differentiate the key benefits of AC5 in treating challenging wounds. The study is expected to enroll and treat up to 60 patients at six sites with a primary endpoint of wound closure. The goal is to increase reimbursement and therefore sales of AC5. ARTH is a Hold for a buyout.
Primary Risk: AC5 fails to sell or the internal trial fails.
Clinical stage of lead product: External approved. Internal trial 2022
Probable time of first FDA approval: External done. Internal 2023
Probable time of next financing: June 2022 quarter
Compass Pathways (CMPS – $16.17) new Chief Medical Officer presented at the Citi BioPharma Conference panel on mental health. (45-MINUTE AUDIO HERE). He mostly made the case for drugs plus therapy as opposed to drugs alone – a position I strongly agree with.
ARK Invest wrote a good article on How “Far Out” Are Psychedelic Therapeutics?. CMPS is a Buy under $20 for a very long-term hold to a 10x.
Primary Risk: Their drugs fail in the clinic.
Clinical stage of lead product: Phase 2
Probable time of first FDA approval: 2024
Probable time of next financing: Mid-2023
ScyNexis (SCYX – $2.50) presented positive interim data of Ibrexafungerp for refractory candida infections from their ongoing Phase 3 FURI trial to the Mycoses Study Group Education and Research Consortium (MSGERC) biennial meeting. Approximately 83% of the 64 FURI patients with refractory Candida infections had positive clinical outcomes, defined as a complete/partial response (56%) or no disease progression (27%).
They also presented data from the ongoing Phase 3 CARES trial demonstrating positive outcomes of ibrexafungerp in 89% of the 18 patients with the deadly Candida auris, defined as a complete/partial response (78%) or no disease progression (11%). Buy SCYX under $2 for a first target price of $20 now that Brexafemme is approved and a buyout at $50.
Primary Risk: Ibrexafungerp fails to sell.
Clinical stage of lead product: Approved
Probable time of next FDA approval: mid-2022
Probable time of next financing: second half of 2023 or never
Biotech & Digital Dominators MegaShift
There are at least four ways to make money in the stocks of these large, growing, dominant companies. You can:
* * Buy a stock and hold it
* * Buy a stock and write a call option against it
* * With a Level IV options account, write an out-of-the-money put option
* * With a Level IV options account, write an out-of-the-money put option and use part of the premium to buy an out-of-the-money call option
Apple (AAPL – $154.46) introduced the iPhone 14 and 14 Plus, the next generation of AirPods Pro, the Apple Watch 8, a new Watch SE, and the ruggedized Watch Ultra. The event had this starry logo:
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Every iPhone will be able to connect to a satellite – the beginning of the end for cellular companies. Apple is partnering with Globalstar and starting with only emergency SOS texts in the US and Canada. They need a lot more satellites to replace AT&T and Verizon, and to take this worldwide. But it will happen. AAPL is a Buy under $150 for new iPhone rollouts and augmented/virtual reality products.
Corning (GLW – $33.11) is opening yet another optical fiber manufacturing plant, this time in Poland. It is one of the largest optical fiber plants in the European Union. GLW is a Buy under $33 for the 5G cellular buildout, followed by the smartphone upgrade to use 5G services. My first target is $60 in 2023 .
Gilead Sciences (GILD – $65.10) continues to build out their very undervalued oncology business as the European Commission approved Tecartus, Kite’s CAR T-cell therapy, for the treatment of relapsed or refractory acute lymphoblastic leukemia. This was Kite’s fourth indication in Europe for its two cell therapies and its first in leukemia. The Phase 3 trial showed 71% overall complete remission and a median overall survival of almost four years for responders.
The Chief Financial Officer did a fireside chat at the Wells Fargo Healthcare Conference (TRANSCRIPT HERE). He pointed out that Trodelvy has been effective against triple-negative breast cancer, hormone receptor-positive breast cancer, and bladder cancer. It’s about to get a data readout against non-small cell lung cancer.
They think it has significant potential in colorectal cancer, endometrial cancer, head and neck cancer, and other solid tumors where chemotherapies have been shown to work. He said: “So when you think about it broadly, Trodelvy has the real potential, not only in the indications we’ve already shown data but much more broadly to replace old line chemotherapy agents.” This is huge! GILD is a Long-Term Buy under $70 for a first target of $100.
Meta Platforms (META – $162.06) laid the foundation for financing its metaverse buildout with its first-ever bond sale. In August, Meta tapped the credit markets by selling $10 billion to investors. And Meta locked in cheap funding:
* * $2.75 billion due 2027 at 3.5%
* * $3.00 billion due 2032 at 3.85%
* * $2.75 billion due 2052 at 4.45%
* * $1.50 billion due 2062 at 4.65%.
Those are great rates, even more favorable than Intel’s recent $6 billion raise. Prior to this issuance, Meta was one of only 18 companies in the S&P that had no debt. And investors wanted these bonds – over $30 billion in orders came in. The company will have no problem financing its expansion efforts. META is a Buy under $250 for a $400 target in 2023 or 2024.
Other Tech
PagerDuty (PD – $23.89) reported last Thursday afternoon the excellent July quarter I covered last week. Revenues grew 33.6% from last year to $90.25 million, beating the consensus estimate for $88.22 million. They had a pro forma loss of four cents a share, half of the eight-cent loss estimate. For the October third quarter, they guided revenues of $92.0 million to $94.0 million, above the consensus for $92.53 million.
On the conference call (SLIDES HERE and TRANSCRIPT HERE), CEO Jennifer Tejada said PagerDuty customers get a two-month payback on their investment. It’s an easy sale.
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They have a large market opportunity:
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They are up to a record 15,174 paid customers with a record 689 spending over $100,000 per year. Their average customer spent 24% more this year than last year. PD is a Buy up to $30 for a 2- to 5-year hold as their digital operations management Software-As-A-Service gains market share.
Primary Risk:Digital operations management is a competitive area.
Probable time of next financing: None needed
QuickLogic (QUIK – $7.26) won a $6.9 million Department of Defense contract to lead development of Strategic Radiation Hardened (SRH), high reliability Field Programmable Gate Array (FPGA) technology. The contract can expand to $72 million over the next several years. QUIK is a Buy up to $10 for my $40 target as their sensor hub is widely adopted in smartphones, tablets, and wearables.
Primary Risk: New sensor hub competitor emerges.
Probable time of next financing: None needed
Rocket Lab USA (RKLB – $5.56) contracted with the United States Transportation Command to explore the possibility of using the Neutron and Electron launch vehicles to transport cargo around the world. The agreement will also see Rocket Lab explore using Photon spacecraft to establish on-orbit cargo depots and deliver re-entry capability. The Rocket Cargo program is led by the Air Force Research Laboratory and the US Space Force. RKLB is a Buy up to $13 for my $30+ target as low earth orbit satellites and space exploration grow.
Primary Risk: A new competitor emerges.
Probable time of next financing: None needed
Velo3D (VLD – $4.26) said M300 tool steel, an ultra-low carbon alloy that delivers very high strength and hardness, is now qualified for use in Sapphire printers. It can improve the lifetime of tooling inserts and enhance manufacturing throughput for automotive manufacturers, who always are looking for ways to cut costs. Velo3D already has seen extensive interest in the alloy from auto companies for use in high-pressure die cast inserts, injection molding, and other types of tooling. This is a big near-term market opportunity. VLD is a Buy up to $6 for my $50 target as Velo3D’s high-tolerance metal parts printing business grows.
Primary Risk:A new 3D metal printing competitor emerges.
Probable time of next financing: None needed
Inflation MegaShift
Gold ($1,718.50) is again approaching ridiculously consolidated levels.
Gold mining stocks are under 15% bullish. We’ve been here before, but besides the pandemic I don’t remember seeing this go from 85% to 15% in only four months.
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Meanwhile, the smart money is buying silver. For only the third time in history, commercial hedgers are holding a net long position in silver futures. The other two preceded 20% rallies.
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Three good ways to get exposure:
A Bag of Junk Silver ($18.56) is a Buy for a hold until 2024-2025.
Primary Risk: Prices of precious metals fall due to US dollar strength.
Global X Silver Miners Exchange-Traded Fund (SIL – $23.92) is up 7.2% from its September 1 52-week low. Cheap, hated, and in an uptrend – that’s the time to buy. Coupled with the Commitment Of Traders short interest in silver, when this turns, it will be explosive. Buy SIL up to $30 for a first target of $50 when silver gets back over $40. The silver miners should outperform both the large and junior gold miners in the next upleg for precious metals that will run until 2020-2022.
Primary Risk: Prices of precious metals fall due to US dollar strength.
First Majestic (AG – $7.79) is the premier silver miner. AG is a Buy under $11 for a $23 next target price as production increases and the price of silver rises.
Primary Risk: Prices of precious metals fall due to US dollar strength.
Cryptocurrencies
Cryptocurrencies are a diversifying asset that offer a unique opportunity to quickly make (or lose!) a lot of money. You can easily buy Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies at Coinbase, Block, or Robinhood.
Bitcoin (BTC-USD on Yahoo – $19,286.05) broke under $20,000 due to Powell’s comments. It is trading like a volatile risk asset – no surprise there. I expect it to snap back hard on any perceived pressure on the Fed to slow or stop their interest rate increases.
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Bitcoin, which accounts for about 40% of the estimated market value of all cryptocurrencies, traded last week within a range of about 5.4%, the narrowest since October 2020, according to Bloomberg. The lull two years ago was followed by a months-long surge in prices that eventually pushed bitcoin to a then-record high in April 2021.
BTC-USD, ETH-USD, and especially GBTC and ETHE are Strong Buys.
Primary Risk: Bitcoin falls due to over-regulation or is surpassed by another cryptocurrency.
Oil – $82.84
Oil slid to a fresh seven-month intraday low today, the lowest level since January 12. This is bizarre – the paper oil market is no longer connected to the physical market. At their September 5 meeting, OPEC+ agreed to a 100,000 barrel per day production cut rather than the increase Western governments asked for.
As I’ve been saying, there is no deal on the Iran sanctions. The West is insisting Iran stop blocking the International Atomic Energy Agency inspections while Tehran wants that part of the deal terminated. Iranian oil is being sold in spite of the sanctions, but Tehran could sell a lot more and at higher prices if the sanctions were lifted. That’s been overhanging the paper oil market…and it’s gone.
Meanwhile, the geniuses in charge of freezing starving energy policy in Europe are proposing “Radical Intervention” including price-setting, suspending derivatives markets, and Europe-wide margin call bailouts. All three policies will make the situation worse, of course. They do have a problem of $1.5 trillion in margin calls for European energy traders, with Euro area clearing banks the counterparties. It looks like Lehman 2.0 or big bailouts. According to this excellent podcast, the future of Europe looks bleak. Got OIL?
The July 2026 Crude Oil Futures (CLN26.NYM – $53.16) are a Buy under $55 for a $200+ target.
The iPath Pure Beta Crude Oil Exchange-Traded Note (OIL – $29.54) is a Buy under $36 for an $80+ target.
Energy Fuels (UUUU – $7.67) will benefit from the Biden Administration’s emergency request to Congress for an additional $1.5 billion for the Department of Energy to reduce reliance on Russian uranium. The context here is that when Japan shut down their reactors in 2011, they had fuel to sell. That swing from buyers to sellers killed the market. Now the reverse will happen. What was supply flips to demand for uranium. Since Fukushima, most of the above-ground uranium inventory has been from Japan. Suddenly that supply had been turned into demand as they restart reactors. UUUU is a buy under $8 for a $30 target.
Primary Risk: Uranium prices fall.
* * * * *
* * * * *
Your considering The Weakness of Xi Jinping Editor,
Michael Murphy CFA
Founding Editor
New World Investor
All Recommendations
Check out the complete Portfolio page HERE.
Buys
These are the stocks everyone needs to own because transformative events are happening over the next year or two, and I expect to hold them long-term.
$20-for-$1
Aptose Biosciences (APTO – $0.72) – Buy under $2.50, ultimate target $30
Bellerophon Therapeutics (BLPH – $1.22) – Buy under $5, first target $30, then $100
Compass Pathways (CMPS – $16.17) – Buy under $20, hold a long time for a 10x return
Graphite Bio (GRPH – $3.44) – Buy under $9, hold a long time
Inovio (INO – $2.16) – Buy under $7, hold a long time
Invitae (NVTA – $3.20) – Buy under $10, first target $50, then $100+
Medicenna (MDNA – $0.9/) – Buy under $3, first target $20, then maybe $40
ScyNexis (SCYX – $2.50) – Buy under $2, target price $20, then $50
Other Biotech
TG Therapeutics (TGTX – $6.95) – Buy under $7, target price $25+
Tech Dominators
Apple Computer (AAPL – $154.46) – Buy under $150 for new iPhones
Corning (GLW – $33.11) – Buy under $33, target price $60
Gilead Sciences (GILD – $65.10) – Buy under $70, target price $100
Meta (META – $162.06) – Buy under $250, target price $400
SoftBank (SFTBY – $18.97) – Buy under $25, target price $50
Other Tech
First Trust NASDAQ Cybersecurity ETF (CIBR – $42.04) – Buy under $40; 3- to 5-year hold
Fastly (FSLY – $9.10) – Buy under $20; 2- to 5-year hold to $80+
PagerDuty (PD – $23.89) – Buy under $30; 2- to 5-year hold
QuickLogic (QUIK – $7.26) – Buy under $10, target price $40
Liberty Media Acquisition Corporation (LMACA – $9.87) – Buy under $10, target price $20 to $30
Rocket Lab (RKLB – $5.56) – Buy under $13, target price $30+
Velo3D (VLD – $4.26) – Buy under $6, target price $50
Inflation
A Short-Sale or REO House – ($447,000) – Buy while fixed mortgage rates are low
Bag of Junk Silver – ($18.57) – hold through silver bull market
Sprott Gold Miners ETF (SGDM – $21.39) – Buy under $28, target price $50
Sprott Junior Gold Miners ETF (SGDJ – $25.05) – Buy under $39, target price $100
Sprott Physical Gold and Silver Trust (CEF – $15.74) – Buy under $18, target price $30
Global X Silver Miners ETF (SIL – $23.92) – Buy under $30, target price $50
Coeur Mining (CDE – $2.90) – Buy under $5, target price $20
First Majestic Mining (AG – $7.79) – Buy under $11, next target price $23
Paramount Gold Nevada (PZG – $0.40) – Buy under $1, first target price $10
Sandstorm Gold (SAND – $5.94) – Buy under $10, target price $25
Sprott Inc. (SII – $37.86) – Buy under $40, target price $70
Cryptocurrencies
Bitcoin (BTC-USD – $ 19,286.05) – Buy
Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC – $12.11) – Buy
Ethereum (ETH-USD – $1,642.74) – Buy
Grayscale Ethereum Trust (ETHE – $12.25) – Buy
International & Other Recommendations
EMQQ Emerging Markets Internet & Ecommerce ETF (EMQQ – $29.87) – Buy under $38 for a $66 target in 12 to 18 months
KraneShares Bosera MSCI China A Share Fund (KBA – $32.91) – Buy under $40 for a three- to five-year hold
Morgan Stanley China A-Shares Fund (CAF – $14.62) – Buy under $18 for a three- to five-year hold
KraneShares CSI China Internet ETF (KWEB – $27.70) – Buy under $40 for a double over the next three years
Acreage Holdings (ACRDF – $1.05) – Buy under $2 for the Canopy Growth merger
Mongolia Growth Group (MNGGF – $1.35) – Buy under $1.30; long-term hold
Energy
Crude Oil Futures – July 2026 (CLN26.NYM – $53.16) – Buy under $55; $200+ target
iPath Pure Beta Crude Oil Exchange-Traded Note (OIL – $29.54) – Buy under $36; $80+ target
Energy Fuels (UUUU – $7.67) – Buy under $8; $30 target
Holds
These are holds but not sells – yet. They could get moved back to one of the buy categories if their prices drop or outlook improves, or they could become sell recommendations in the future.
Algernon Pharmaceuticals (AGNPF – $4.75) – Hold for IPF/chronic cough trial
Akebia Biotherapeutics (AKBA – $0.43) – Hold for FDA meeting
Arch Therapeutics (ARTH – $0.02) – Hold for buyout
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First
Another excellent and insightful Radar Report Michael Murphy. Put and call for the S&P 500 is pretty good short term temptation, it seems. Sad about the queen. I got to thinking she was eteranl. She was a model of being positive about her country. Our current President is nowhere near that for sure and folks are getting really upaset about safety in the streets, especially for the elderly and women. then inflation and wrong direction. Nice to se the up side today and will hope that energy you see in t fractals merits an up bump in spetember and after the November elections. GLTA
My sentiments exactly Don. The queen was a class act. The UK will not be the same with her passing. Now the UK and Europe has a major crisis on their hands . Russian oil and gas have been cut off by Putin. Natural gas in Europe is costing residents over $800 a month. And winter hasn’t even started. With gas in the US running up over $5.00 a gallon recently oil companies have NO reason to increase production and shoot themselves in the foot. Not to mention the increase risk taking of investing in drilling and additional production with the uncertainty of the future of fossil fuels . The current rig count is 596. In March of 2020 it was 1,059. And it decreased as the Biden campaign promised to end fossil fuels . On November 6, 2020 the rig count fell to 300. The takeaway is don’t expect gas to return to “cheap” levels anytime soon .Global energy consulting firm Wood Mackenzie projects US exports of LNG will double from 2020- 2040. International Energy Agency estimates that gas will account for 46 percent of global energy portfolio in 2040. Got oil?
So you are ok with price gouging by big oil? Would you feel that way if a GOP president was in charge? Doubt it.
BTW .. rig counts. https://ycharts.com/indicators/us_oil_rotary_rigs
You might remember a certain event in March 2020 that collapsed oil demand. Rig counts bottomed in the summer of 2020 and are straight up from there. Absolutely nothing do do with Biden and everything due to demand. If big oil wasn’t price gouging under the cover of the “Biden inflation” counts would be well in the mid 1000s by now.
I’m glad you are still posting on this site! You bring fearless responses, backed by facts that many here miss.
Princess Diana was the class act among all the Royalty
Inflation is plummeting by almost all measures. Time for a new talking point. I heard an interview with an Indian reporter with your boy Trump absolutely trashing the US.
That is unification? That is positivity?
Come on man.
On the contrary Biden’s last speech indicated a lot of positive sentiment about our future as a country.
It must be Biden’s fault they’re experiencing inflation in the UK and Europe. Nah!
MM I see that our favorite stock ARTH is now at $.02. What a loser. You’ve got it at hold?????? What a waste of money for me.
All the worlds dictators work of the page that says”I am never wrong.”. Deads are the measure of a person.
jcs. “Deads are the measure of a person.”
Then Hitler, Stalin and Putin lead your hit parade.
They were all pikers compared to Mao Tse Deng.
I thought Vlad the Impaler was the one that put most heads on pikes… or was that Game of Thrones?
Opinion is often unrelated to fact, especially in D.C.
3
4th and I read it first before posting
MM —
Correction: under coming events every date next week is off by one; today is Sept 9; 9/11 comes on Sun this year, and Mon is Sept 12, etc.
MM do you think the big pharma would ever let anything Gilead comes up with to replace their cash cow Chemotherapy ??
MM what are your thoughts on SAVA? Their results on Alzheimer’s treatments looks to be promising.
Scrips continue to increase weekly for Brexa (SCYX). 530 at last reporting, up from 501 the previous week.
Overall, the trend line for growth in scripts is too small to justify a stock price rise. Break-even is far into the future.
SCYX rose today in a bad general market. Possibly a good sign for SCYX.
Inflation Hotter than expected. Annualized 8.3% down from 8.5%
Other interesting info. The Lead WSJ editorial “China’s Coal Power Boom” Last paragraph says “While the Biden Administration does all it can to restrict U.S. fossil fuels, no matter the economic harm, Beijing is
charging ahead with coal imports, coal mining and coal power to become the world’s leading economy. They must marvel at their good fortune in having rivals who are so self-destructive”
MM, What are your thoughts on this? I was hoping for a Collaboration with MDNA55 which we have been waiting forever for. Thanks!!Medicenna Announces Clinical Collaboration with Merck to evaluate MDNA11 in combination with KEYTRUDA® (pembrolizumab) in ABILITY TrialSEPTEMBER 13, 2022 AT 7:00 AM EDT
ABILITY Study will evaluate MDNA11, a highly selective long-acting IL-2 Superkine, in combination with Merck’s KEYTRUDA® (pembrolizumab) for treatment of patients with advanced solid tumors
TORONTO and HOUSTON, Sept. 13, 2022 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) — Medicenna Therapeutics Corp. (“Medicenna” or “the Company”) (NASDAQ: MDNA TSX: MDNA), a clinical stage immuno-oncology company, today announced that it has entered into a clinical trial collaboration and supply agreement with Merck (known as MSD outside the United States and Canada) to evaluate MDNA11, Medicenna’s “beta-only” long-acting IL-2 super-agonist in combination with KEYTRUDA® (pembrolizumab), Merck’s anti-PD-1 (programmed death receptor-1) therapy, in the ongoing Phase 1/2 ABILITY Study.
The ABILITY Study is a Phase 1/2 trial designed to assess the safety, pharmacokinetics (PK), pharmacodynamics (PD) and preliminary efficacy of MDNA11 as a monotherapy and in combination with KEYTRUDA® in patients with advanced/metastatic solid tumors. Under the terms of the clinical trial supply and collaboration agreement, Medicenna will sponsor the study and Merck will supply KEYTRUDA®. The two companies will establish a Joint Development Committee to optimally advance the study’s combination arm.
“Entering into this agreement with Merck provides us with an opportunity to work with the world’s leading immuno-oncology company,” said Fahar Merchant, PhD, President and CEO of Medicenna. “Although we believe that MDNA11 has great potential as a single agent, combining it with KEYTRUDA® may significantly enhance therapeutic benefit in different types of cancer, potentially maximizing the value of MDNA11. We are fortunate to have the opportunity to explore MDNA11 in combination with KEYTRUDA®.”
“MDNA11 is designed to selectively expand CD8 T and NK cells, as well as increase PD-1 expression on immune cells. With strong preclinical data demonstrating promising activity with anti-PD-1, we look forward to the opportunity to evaluate the efficacy of MDNA11 in combination with KEYTRUDA® in various solid tumors,” added Dr. Merchant.
KEYTRUDA® is a registered trademark of Merck Sharp & Dohme LLC, a subsidiary of Merck & Co., Inc., Rahway, NJ, USA.
I hate to say I told you so but inflation is obviously not close to being tamed, despite Michaels insistence it is over. Food prices, my business and a large contributor to the number will continue to rise thru EOY. Remember, it’s the economy stupid, that’s why there will be a red wave in November, this administration is clueless about the economy
How hysterical is it the White House is holding a party today to celebrate the passing of the inflation reduction act, almost as hypocritical as the name of the act!
I saw report thar reported the annual percentage paid by
American citizens in taxes to all levels governments as related to their income:
Historical (some time in the early 2200s) about 9%
Current (recent year) about 39%
After I picked myself off of the floor, I forgot to record where I found this. Does any one fell me where that was!
Agree again.
Agree totally. Extreme money printing from this administration is the cause of all this inflation. This must be unwound. Until then, high inflation will persist, notwithstanding MM’s picking and choosing which segments of the economy have deflated and inflated. Although gas prices are below $4, down from $5, they are still way above the $2 region during the Trump era.
Yes, imagine that, inflation is higher than they expected. And it’s coming down but NOT fast enough. The FED needs to hit 100 basis points next time and peel the cover off the ball or we will be in another dragged out game like the 70’s IMO. Yes, there is going to be some pain and the big R word will be floating around in the main stream media like it’s the next gloom and doom event to hit the streets but like the flu, it’s best if you hit it early and very hard. Also the oil reserves we have in the ground are now at historic low levels (low as 1984) and Biden says he will be buying below $80 . That’s going to put pressure on the already stressed oil supply side and push oil prices back up. (Equals more inflation) . It’s a catch 22 or SNAFU. Situations Normal All F——- Up!! On another note , Warren Buffet added to his stake in Apple. He is now holding 141 Billion of Apple stock.
Fact check … gas prices were briefly around 2 bucks WHEN WE HAD A MASSIVE LOCKDOWN!
Come on man.
Your FACTS are wrong. You twist facts to rationalize your dumb liberal beliefs. Before Biden, gas prices averaged $2-3. Stupid typical Dem tax and spend policies have always caused inflation. Money printing is required to fund govt spending, because even 99% tax rates can’t raise enough money to fund the govt, and the remaining 1% of money in the private sector would crash the economy.
You are an excellent investor and know the hazard of money printing causing inflation. Don’t look for the slender silver lining and look for exceptions to the inevitable evil outcomes of Dem economic policies.
More doom and gloom from the media on the inflation front. 12 Labor Unions could go on strike at the railroads . First time in 30 years. If so , it will cost $2 Billion a day . They want 24 percent wage increases retroactive to 2020. (About $11,000. per employee) If a strike begins economists warn widespread disruptions to shipping logistics could push prices higher amid HISTORIC inflation. And if a strike is averted, a 24 percent wage increase plus a $11,000. payout to each and every member of 12 Unions /railroad employees is nothing but inflationary . Mortgage rates are now at 6 percent, so good luck young house buyers trying to buy an overpriced $400,000.00 plus home. Rents in Oregon can now be increased by 14 percent. (7 percent plus another 7 percent for inflation) . The European Union is playing Robin Hood by taxing oil companies for $140? Billion with the intention of giving it back to business and individuals . What do you bet once that money hits the government cash register it will disappear into some other political pet social projects? YEA HAW. Are we having fun yet?
Right. At least the union workers do their jobs and produce goods, but college kids can get a free ride at the expense of all taxpayers, not from the “generosity and compassion” (what a LIE) of the govt. The kids can change their major to the latest politically correct subject, and keep partying. The college administration can keep raising tuition because the govt (really the taxpayers) will pay the bills. More inflation by printing even more dollar toilet paper to pay for all this stupid spending. College profs are in on this corrupt game, and keep spewing their commie crap.
More doom and gloom from the media on the inflation front. 12 Labor Unions could go on strike at the railroads . First time in 30 years. If so , it will cost $2 Billion a day . They want 24 percent wage increases retroactive to 2020. (About $11,000. per employee) If a strike begins economists warn widespread disruptions to shipping logistics could push prices higher amid HISTORIC inflation. And if a strike is averted, a 24 percent wage increase plus a $11,000. payout to each and every member of 12 Unions /railroad employees is nothing but inflationary . Mortgage rates are now at 6 percent, so good luck young house buyers trying to buy an overpriced $400,000.00 plus home. Rents in Oregon can now be increased by 14 percent. (7 percent plus another 7 percent for inflation) . The European Union is playing Robin Hood by taxing oil companies for $140? Billion with the intention of giving it back to business and individuals . Do you want to
bet once that money hits the government cash register it will disappear into some other political pet social projects? YEA HAW. Are we having fun yet?
Notice how many giant firms are spinning off segments of their firm to separate free smaller businesses. This is happening in market segments ranging from Wall Street itself to firms in all of the segments we look for investments.
More recently In my part of the country there haved been a different trend sawing more we now see a different was massuve General Electric into three independent entities.
United Technologies disassembled a bunch of unrelated massive entities back into their original unique entitie forms.
Today is quite different as firms from Wall Street to all sorts of essentially unified firms which are peeling off segments of a once single focus entity.
The Radar Report for 9.15.22 is posted.