Dear New World Investor:

The S&P 500 bottomed on October 12 at 3491.58. It’s a Wall Street shibboleth that the market leads the economy by six months, so let’s see – November 12, December 12, January 12, February 12, March 12, April 12 – yep, here we are. All the forces behind the Fed’s tightening regime should be peaking. Let’s dive in…

Employment: Last Friday’s March payrolls report showed a sharp drop from February’s +326,000 to +236,000. Today’s new unemployment claims hit 239,000, above the consensus estimate and the highest since January 2022. With job openings at new lows, job cuts at multi-decade highs, payrolls easing to multi-year lows, and now jobless claims rising, these are “just right” numbers from the Fed’s point of view. They want a soft landing or at least a mild recession, so the “data-dependent” thing to do is pause.

Click for larger graphic h/t @DiMartinoBooth

Inflation: Yesterday’s March Consumer Price Index increased 5.0% year-over-year and only 0.1% month-over-month. That was down from February’s 6.0% and 0.4%, and below the consensus for 5.1% and 0.2%. It was the slowest pace since May 2021.

Core inflation, which strips out the more volatile costs of food and gas, climbed 5.6% year-over-year and 0.4% month-over-month. Core inflation remained sticky due to surging rents reflecting last year’s increases. The index for rent and the index for owners’ equivalent rent both rose 0.5% The shelter index increased 8.2% over the last year, accounting for over 60% of the total increase in core inflation.

Today’s Producer Price Index report showed prices rose just 2.7% year-over-year and fell 0.5% in March to its lowest level since April 2020. Two-thirds of the drop in producer prices was attributable to a 1% decline in prices for goods, largely driven by gas prices falling last month. Core producer prices rose 0.1% last month. Producer prices tend to lead consumer prices:

Click for larger graphic h/t Capital Market Laboratories

There’s no doubt that nominal activity has decelerated, with real growth contracting and inflation decelerating. The Fed now has to make sure these “just right” numbers don’t turn into “Oh-Oh” numbers and a deep recession. But wage growth is still too high for the Fed’s comfort, giving them room to hike another 25 basis points on May 2 to a target range of 5.00% to 5.25%.

Click for larger graphic h/t @Mayhem4Markets

After that, I expect them to pause – one more and done. Fed Chairman Powell probably will say as much in the press conference that afternoon. The Fed typically ends rate hike cycles after the real Fed-funds rate (the CPI minus Fed funds) goes positive. Core inflation will be trending at 3.5% annualized soon and with a 5% Fed funds you are looking at a +1.5% real Fed funds rate. Historically, that has proven to be restrictive enough to kill inflation. Typically, once the Fed stops tightening, it starts easing soon thereafter. Indeed, expectations are that the Fed starts easing this summer.

Click for larger graphic h/t @TimmerFidelity

The markets are betting on a Fed pivot and earnings rebound. But more often than not, earnings tend to fall while the Fed is easing.

Click for larger graphic h/t @TimmerFidelity

Earnings season gets rolling in earnest tomorrow as the big banks report. Analysts are expecting a 6.8% drop in year-over-year S&P 500 earnings. For 2023, the consensus earnings-per-share estimate for the S&P is $216, down $2 from 2022. The recovery for 2024 is expected to be swift, gaining $25 to $243. If the Fed causes a deeper recession later this year, those estimates are likely too optimistic.

Meanwhile, both retail and professional sentiment remains very bearish. Hedge funds currently have the largest net short position in S&P 500 futures since late 2011.

Click for larger graphic

Marty Zweig’s Breadth Thrust Indicator just triggered. It is calculated by taking a 10-day moving average of the number of advancing stocks divided by the number of advancing stocks plus the number of declining stocks. The calculation derives a percentage, and when it falls below 40% and then surges above 60% in 10 days or less, the indicator is triggered. It means many stocks went from oversold to overbought in a short time frame, which is what you see at the beginning of new bull markets.

The last time the indicator was triggered was in early 2019. Before then, it flashed in October 2015, October 2013, October 2011, and March 2009, just two weeks after the S&P 500 hit its generational low during the Great Financial Crisis. It has only happened 14 other time since 1950 and the S&P 500 was higher a year later every single time, with both an average and median forward one-year return of 23%. The six-month forward average return after the Zweig Thrust Indicator was triggered is 17%.

Only twice since 2000 has the Zweig Thrust Indicator flashed and the S&P 500 went on to fall to a new low – late 2015 and early 2004. However, while the S&P 500 did move lower in the short term, it still moved significantly higher one year after the signal was triggered.

Click for larger graphic h/t @RyanDetrick

Market Outlook

The S&P 500 added 1.0% since last Thursday thanks to today’s rally. The Index is up 8.0% year-to-date. The Nasdaq Composite gained 0.6% and is up 16.2% for the year. The small-cap Russell 2000 won the week, up 2.4%, enough to return it to positive territory for 2023, up 2.0%.

The fractal dimension is still headed towards the 55 level that will signal a real new trend is underway. If the market continues to rise, even just a little, it should begin accelerating towards 55 in a couple of weeks.

Top 5

Changes this week:

Near-Term – chronological order
EQT EQT –natural gas price rebound
OIL iPath Pure Beta Crude Oil Exchange-Traded Note – crude should rise quickly
GBTC Grayscale Bitcoin Trust – Bitcoin is coming out of one of its periodic sharp drops
BLPH Phase 3 results mid-2023
VLD Velo3D – Rapid revenue growth; low market cap

Long-Term – alphabetical order
EQT EQT – largest US natural gas company
NVTA Invitae – the winner-take-most of genetic testing
META Meta – a (the?) leader in the metaverse
RKLB Rocket Lab – #2 to SpaceX in space
VLD Velo3D – Return manufacturing to the US

Economy

The Atlanta Fed raised it’s March quarter GDP forecast to 2.2% from 1.5% due to strength in real personal consumption expenditures and real gross private domestic investment growth.

Click for larger graphic

The first estimate from the Bureau of Economic Analysis comes at 8:30am, April 27.

Coming Events
All times below are ET, and most presentations and slides are archived on the companies’ websites so you can listen to them.

Sunday, April 16
SCYX – ScyNexis – 6:00am – European Congress of Clinical Microbiology & Infectious Diseases (E¢MID) 6 poster presentations
INO – Inovio – 6:00am – European Congress of Clinical Microbiology & Infectious Diseases (E¢MID) Poster presentation
MDNA – Medicenna – 1:30pm – American Association for Cancer Research (AACR) annual meeting poster presentation

Wednesday, April 19
CMPS – Compass Pathways – 9:30am – Needham Virtual Healthcare Conference

Thursday, April 20
APTO – Aptose Therapeutics – 2:00pm – Canaccord Genuity Horizons in Oncology Conference panel

Friday, April 21
FCX – Freeport McMoRan – 10:00am – Earnings conference call

The $20-For-$1 Stocks

Say you put $2,000 into a stock that goes from 50¢ a share to $10. The $2,000 turns into $40,000. Then you put the $40,000 into another stock that goes from 50¢ to $10. That turns the $40,000 into $800,000. You did it with two stocks and never risked going negative more than $2,000. (Not that you won’t be mad at me if the first one works and then the second one doesn’t, taking your $40,000 to Money Heaven.)

If you can afford it – and it would not be too big a position in your portfolio – putting $2,000 into each of these speculative biotechs might be a good way to start. Buying these out-of-favor, fallen, or forgotten companies that can get important products through the FDA at very low market capitalizations seems like a good strategy to me.

Risks

Development-stage biotechs are subject to investor sentiment swings from wildly optimistic to excessively pessimistic – mostly the latter recently. After the Primary Risk for each company, I’ve added the clinical stage of their lead product, the probable time of their first FDA approval, and the probable time of their next financing.

As always, you need to think about an appropriate position size. You could buy a full position upfront and then just hold on, or buy some upfront and leave room to add more on the inevitable financings, transient clinical trial setbacks, and the like.

Compass Pathways (CMPS – $9.95) must have had disastrous results since its Initial Public Offering on September 18, 2020, at $17, right?

Click for larger graphic

Wrong. The stock closed at $29 the first day, went on to hit $60.87 on December 23, 2020, and then spiraled down to the sub-$10 level today. But they are the psychedelics market leader and have made significant advances over the last few years, including starting the first-ever Phase 3 trial using psilocybin combined with psychological support for treatment-resistant depression. The FDA granted their COMP360 Breakthrough Therapy designation.

Compass ended 2022 with $143.1 million in cash. Management said they will burn $85 million to $110 million this year, depending on how fast the Phase 3 trial accrues patients. They are doing another small trial in 20 PTSD patients that should readout in midyear, so I expect them to raise money before yearend – at a higher price. CMPS is a Buy under $20 for a very long-term hold to a 10x.
Primary Risk: Their drugs fail in the clinic.
   Clinical stage of lead product: Phase 2
   Probable time of first FDA approval: 2025
   Probable time of next financing: Late 2023

Inovio (INO – $0.94) said an abstract has been accepted for presentation for INO-4201 as an Ebola booster for rVSV-ZEBOV (Ervebo) at the 33^rd European Congress of Clinical Microbiology and Infectious Diseases (ECCMID). INO is a Buy under $7 for a very long-term hold.
Primary Risk: Their drugs fail in the clinic.
   Clinical stage of lead product: Phase 3
   Probable time of first FDA approval: 2023
   Probable time of next financing: Mid-2024

Invitae (NVTA – $1.44) announced new research published in Nature describing the first use of their personalized cancer monitoring (PCM) platform to demonstrate the utility of ctDNA as a highly sensitive and specific biomarker for cancer recurrence in a large cohort of patients with stage I-III non-small-cell lung cancer (NSCLC) followed for up to five years.

The study also validated the need for Minimal Residual Disease assays. Invitae will continue to leverage its differentiated PCM technology to pursuing opportunities across multiple indications in the clinical oncology market. Buy NVTA under $10 for a first target of $50 and eventually $100+ when they become the Amazon of genetic testing.
Primary Risk: A competitor starts taking significant market share.
   Clinical stage of lead product: NM
   Probable time of first FDA approval: NM
   Probable time of next financing: Not needed

Biotech MegaShift

Akebia Therapeutics (AKBA- $0.64) postponed the April 11 shareholders meeting to May 4 at 10:00am because they didn’t have enough votes to approve the proposed reverse split. Right on! If you already voted – NO, I hope – you don’t have to vote again. AKBA is a Hold for the results of the FDA appeal on vadadustat.
Primary Risk: Vadadustat not approved.
   Clinical stage of lead product: Vadadustat NDA filed; CRL
   Probable time of next FDA approval: Unknown
   Probable time of next financing: Unknown

TG Therapeutics (TGTX – $20.15) moved up after Cantor Fitzgerald said their new multiple sclerosis drug, Briumvi, experienced a “solid jump” in March sales to $3.3 million from $0.5 million in February. That means total first-quarter sales were about $4 million, above forecasts for $2.5 million to $3.8 million.

Briumvi won’t have a permanent code for insurance billing purposes until July. Cantor said: “”Investor focus during the initial period seems to be more on the feedback from neurologists regarding Briumvi use which, based on our recent physician checks, is very positive and bodes well for the rest of the year.” They have an Overweight rating but only a $24 target price.

B. Riley Securities chimed in Tuesday, saying after a survey of high-prescribing MS physicians, there is growing interest in the anti-CD20 class and increasing market share gains for Briumvi compared to rival therapies Kesimpta from Novartis and Ocrevus from Roche. Key takeaways from the survey include expectations for anti-CD20 treated patients to rise from around 33% to 60% within the next five years. 16% of currently-treated and 32% of treatment-naive patients are expected to switch to or start on an anti-CD20 this year. They raised their target price from $23 to $39.

I’m changing TGTX to a Hold for a target price in a buyout of $25 or more now that the MS drug is approved.
Primary Risk:Briumvi, the MS drug, fails to sell.
   Clinical stage of lead product: Approved
   Probable time of next FDA approval: NM
   Probable time of next financing: Second half of 2023

Biotech & Digital Dominators MegaShift
There are at least four ways to make money in the stocks of these large, growing, dominant companies. You can:
* * Buy a stock and hold it
* * Buy a stock and write a call option against it
* * With a Level IV options account, write an out-of-the-money put option
* * With a Level IV options account, write an out-of-the-money put option and use part of the premium to buy an out-of-the-money call option

Apple (AAPL – $165.56) Mac March quarter sales fell 40.5% from last year’s March quarter, according to market research firm IDC. They think total global shipments of traditional PCs declined 29% year-on-year to 56.9 million in the first quarter of 2023 due to weak demand, excess inventory, and a worsening macroeconomic climate. They said PC makers can expect elevated inventory to persist into the middle of the year and potentially into the third quarter despite heavy discounting.

Click for larger graphic

Remember that Macs are much more expensive than Windows PCs, so Apple’s share of industry revenues is higher than its unit market share.

Click for larger graphic

Not to worry. First, in the December quarter, Mac sales accounted for a bit less than 7% of overall sales. Weakness just won’t move the needle.

Click for larger graphic

Second, a 40.5% drop from last year’s March quarter Mac sales of $10.4 billion would mean $6.2 billion in sales, not much below the December quarter. Apple already guided for a “strong decline” in Mac revenue this quarter.

Third, as Bernstein said, data from research firms IDC and Gartner have not historically been accurate when it comes to predicting Mac-related revenue. They said the first-quarter data from IDC may have shown some “incremental sequential channel inventory drawdown,” suggesting that underlying demand was better than normal on a seasonal basis.

Apple is building a huge, very valuable subscription business. They have an installed base of two billion active devices, which has doubled in seven years. With App Store, AppleCare, Apple Pay, Apple Music, Apple TV, cloud, gaming, podcasts, and fitness, Apple has 935 million paid subscribers, the highest number in the world. AAPL is a Buy under $150 for new iPhone rollouts and augmented/virtual reality products.

Meta Platforms (META – $220.35) is moving towards the “everything app” that keeps users engaged. In November, they updated WhatsApp to allow users in Brazil, Indonesia, Mexico, Colombia, and the UK to browse businesses by category, and send messages to them, with plans to allow users to make secure payments directly in chat following a launch in India. In December, MercadoLibre said it was testing WhatsApp payments in Brazil.

CEO Mark Zuckerberg said chat payments now are live in Brazil. Small businesses using WhatsApp Business can link a supported payment partner and build an order within the app to securely accept payments using MasterCard and Visa debit, credit, and prepaid cards. Zuck said: “We’ll be rolling this feature out to more businesses in the coming months.”

This is a big deal. WeChat, the platform that is owned by Chinese tech giant Tencent, is described as Facebook, Twitter, Snapchat, and PayPal all rolled into one. More than a billion users, primarily in mainland China, rely on the social network to do virtually everything, from ordering groceries to booking a yoga class to paying bills, without leaving the app.

Argus Research upgraded Meta to a Buy with a $270 target price. They said Zuckerberg’s cost-cutting measures are working and should have a very positive effect on the company’s bottom line. They added: “When you look at Microsoft and Alphabet, you’re talking 5% or 6% cuts. This is a 24% cut – a big cost-cutting measure to save about $8 billion on their 2023 expense projections. That’s a serious measure in a very uncertain revenue growth environment, and gives the market what it wants – increased profitability and cash flow.”

META is a Buy under $150 for a $400 target in 2024.

SoftBank (SFTBY – $19.63) sold SoftBank Ventures Asia, its early-stage venture capital arm, to The Edgeof, a newly established entity led by Singapore-based VC firm Mistletoe founder Taizo Son – Masa’s younger brother. Keep it in the family, I guess.

SoftBank reportedly signed an agreement with Nasdaq for a potential IPO for its Arm chip design unit, a key step towards what could be the largest initial public offering of the year. The IPO could be held as soon as this fall, with Arm valued between $30 billion and $70 billion. Goldman Sachs, JP Morgan and Mizuho are the lead bankers.

They filed with the SEC to sell most of the rest of their Alibaba stake, cutting their 14.6% position to 3.8%. Last year they booked a gain of $34 billion by cutting from 23.7% to 14.6%. CEO Masayoshi Son probably will buy back lots more SFTBY stock at this huge discount to net asset value. SFTBY is a Buy under $25 for a first target of $50 in the next two years.

Other Tech

PagerDuty (PD – $33.40) announced the general availability of PagerDuty AIOps, a solution that delivers end-to-end automation, from event ingestion through auto-remediation, to reliably process high volumes of data and events and resolve incidents quickly. PagerDuty AIOps leverages machine learning (ML) and proprietary artificial intelligence (AI) to optimize PagerDuty’s foundational data model, reducing complexity, automating more of the incident response process, and preventing costly incidents. PD is a Buy up to $30 for a 2- to 5-year hold as their digital operations management Software-As-A-Service gains market share.
Primary Risk: Digital operations management is a competitive area.

Rocket Lab USA (RKLB – $4.11) and all the public space stocks took a hit after the Virgin Orbit bankruptcy filing but fairly quickly recovered. I always thought a business plan based on space tourism for rich people willing to risk being blown up was a dumb idea.

Rocket Lab will launch NASA’s four TROPICS cyclone- and hurricane-tracking satellites from Launch Complex 1 in New Zealand across two dedicated Electron missions in May. That will ensure the constellation is in orbit for the 2023 storm season. RKLB is a Buy up to $13 for my $30+ target as low earth orbit satellites and space exploration grow.
Primary Risk: A new competitor emerges.

Inflation MegaShift

Gold ($2,054.70) is on the edge of a new all-time high. Jefferies wrote: “We heard one interesting rumor when in China recently that Saudi was using the renminbi it was receiving for oil to buy gold on the Shanghai Exchange. We have no idea if there is any truth to this but it is certainly interesting.” Somebody is buying a lot of it.

Bing! Bing! Bing! The fractal dimension dove through the 55 level, finally signaling a new trend is underway. As I expected, this comes with prices close to new all-time highs, with lots of stored energy to keep the uptrend going. This is going to be fun.

Miners & Related

Coeur Mining (CDE – $4.44) presented at Gold Forum Europe. There wasn’t anything new, but their message is getting sharper:

Click for larger graphic

CDE is a Buy under $5 for a $20 target as gold goes higher.
Primary Risk: Prices of precious metals fall due to US dollar strength.

Sandstorm Gold (SAND – $6.28) got a balanced, favorable article in SeekingAlpha. The conclusion: “…sentiment is likely to change dramatically for the better by 2024/2025 whether metals prices cooperate or not given that multiple assets will come online to fuel per share growth and give Sandstorm Gold Ltd. scale to finally start growing with debt/cash flow vs. shares.”

SAND is a Buy under $10 for a $25 target.
Primary Risk: Prices of precious metals fall due to US dollar strength.

Cryptocurrencies

Cryptocurrencies are a diversifying asset that offer a unique opportunity to make (or lose!) a lot of money quickly. You can easily buy b1itcoin and other cryptocurrencies at Coinbase, Block, or Robinhood.

Bitcoin (BTC-USD on Yahoo – $30,290.80) jumped Monday to lead cryptocurrency prices higher after trading sideways over the holiday weekend. It surged more than 4% during the day to mark a new 10-month high and is holding over $30,000.

Click for larger graphic

This is a timeline of important events since the FTXplosion versus the bitcoin price over that time period. One thing’s for sure: Bitcoin loves good bad news.

Click for larger graphic h/t @Cryptadamist

Bitcoin has a four-year cycle consisting of a:

End of Bull Market year (Candle 1) – 2013, 2017, 2021, 2025
Bear Market year (Candle 2) – 2014, 2018, 2022
Bottoming Out year (Candle 3) – 2015, 2019, 2023
Confirmed Bull Market year (Candle 4) – 2016, 2020, 2024

The worst is behind us already. The best lies ahead.

Click for larger graphic h/t @rektcapital

BTC-USD, ETH-USD, GBTC, and ETHE are Strong Buys.
Primary Risk: Bitcoin falls due to over-regulation or is surpassed by another cryptocurrency.

Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC- $17.71) is at a 35% discount to net asset value. That’s less than the 47% discount of a few months ago, but it’s still juicy, easy money. GBTC is a Buy under net asset value.
Primary Risk: Bitcoin falls due to over-regulation or is surpassed by another cryptocurrency.

Commodities

Oil – $82.30 is holding strong over $80 after the surprise OPEC+ voluntary production cuts. For oil to decisively break its recent range we need to see US inventories begin to draw consistently. That should happens in the next few weeks as Gulf Coast exports accelerate. The ingredients are present for a sharp move higher.

There were 71 consecutive weekly declines in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve. After a pause over the last three months, the SPR is being tapped again. It was down 1.6 million barrels over the last week to the lowest levels since 1983. That will slow oil’s upward climb, but not stop it.

Implied oil demand for gasoline/distillate/jet fuel is now firmly above 2022/2021.

Click for larger graphic h/t @HFI_Research

The July 2026 Crude Oil Futures (CLN26.NYM – $65.77) are a Buy under $65 for a $200+ target. Only buy futures for all cash; do not use margin.

The iPath Pure Beta Crude Oil Exchange-Traded Note (OIL – $31.11) is a Buy under $36 for an $80+ target.

Freeport McMoRan (FCX – $42.94) reports a week from tomorrow. Analysts are expecting revenues to fall 24.0% to $5.02 billion with earnings per share down 58% to 45¢. That’s a very low bar and should be easy to beat. FCX is a buy under $44 for a $65 target within two years.
Primary Risk: Copper prices fall.

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RIP Craig Breedlove

Craig Breedlove, the World Land Speed Record legend, died at 86. Craig was the first person to drive over 400 mph, 500 mph, and 600 mph. When I was planning my Bonneville campaign, I went to one of his fundraising dinners to give him a shot at going supersonic. His advice to everyone was Go For It.

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Your ready to upload consciousness Editor,

Michael Murphy CFA
Founding Editor
New World Investor

All Recommendations

Check out the complete Portfolio page HERE.

Buys
These are the stocks everyone needs to own because transformative events are happening over the next year or two, and I expect to hold them long-term.

$20-for-$1
  Aptose Biosciences (APTO – $0.51) – Buy under $2.50, ultimate target $30
  Bellerophon Therapeutics (BLPH – $10.98) – Buy under $5, first target $30, then $100
  Compass Pathways (CMPS – $9.95) – Buy under $20, hold a long time for a 10x return
  Inovio (INO – $0.94) – Buy under $7, hold a long time
  Invitae (NVTA – $1.44) – Buy under $10, first target $50, then $100+
  Medicenna (MDNA – $0.60) – Buy under $3, first target $20, then maybe $40
  ScyNexis (SCYX – $3.03) – Buy under $2.50, target price $20, then $50

Tech Dominators
  Apple Computer (AAPL – $165.56 ) – Buy under $150 for new iPhones
  Corning (GLW – $34.93) – Buy under $33, target price $60
  Gilead Sciences (GILD – $83.27) – Buy under $80, target price $120
  Meta (META – $220.35) – Buy under $250, target price $400
  SoftBank (SFTBY – $19.63) – Buy under $25, target price $50

Other Tech
  First Trust NASDAQ Cybersecurity ETF (CIBR – $42.39) – Buy under $40; 3- to 5-year hold
  Fastly (FSLY – $16.42) – Buy under $20; 2- to 5-year hold to $80+
  PagerDuty (PD – $33.40) – Buy under $30; 2- to 5-year hold
  QuickLogic (QUIK – $5.80) – Buy under $10, target price $40
  Rocket Lab (RKLB – $4.11) – Buy under $13, target price $30+
  Velo3D (VLD – $2.29) – Buy under $6, target price $50

Inflation
  A Short-Sale or REO House – ($447,000) – Hold
  Bag of Junk Silver – ($25.97) – hold through silver bull market
  Sprott Gold Miners ETF (SGDM – $31.10) – Buy under $28, target price $50
  Sprott Junior Gold Miners ETF (SGDJ – $36.96) – Buy under $39, target price $100
  Sprott Physical Gold and Silver Trust (CEF – $19.91) – Buy under $18, target price $30
  Global X Silver Miners ETF (SIL – $32.97) – Buy under $30, target price $50
  Coeur Mining (CDE – $4.44) – Buy under $5, target price $20
  First Majestic Mining (AG – $7.80) – Buy under $11, next target price $23
  Paramount Gold Nevada (PZG – $0.39) – Buy under $1, first target price $10
  Sandstorm Gold (SAND – $6.28) – Buy under $10, target price $25
  Sprott Inc. (SII – $37.45) – Buy under $40, target price $70

Cryptocurrencies
  Bitcoin (BTC-USD – $30,290.80) – Buy
  Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC – $17.71) – Buy
  Ethereum (ETH-USD – $2,027.90) – Buy
  Grayscale Ethereum Trust (ETHE – $10.48) – Buy

International & Other Recommendations
  EMQQ Emerging Markets Internet & Ecommerce ETF (EMQQ – $30.69) – Buy under $38 for a $66 target in 12 to 18 months
  KraneShares Bosera MSCI China A Share Fund (KBA – $26.03) – Buy under $40 for a three- to five-year hold
  Morgan Stanley China A-Shares Fund (CAF – $14.04) – Buy under $18 for a three- to five-year hold
  KraneShares CSI China Internet ETF (KWEB – $29.42) – Buy under $40 for a double over the next three years
  Acreage Holdings (ACRDF – $0.71) – Buy under $2 for the Canopy Growth merger
  Mongolia Growth Group (MNGGF – $1.10) – Buy under $1.30; long-term hold

Commodities
  Crude Oil Futures – July 2026 (CLN26.NYM – $65.77) – Buy under $65; $200+ target
  iPath Pure Beta Crude Oil Exchange-Traded Note (OIL – $31.11) – Buy under $36; $80+ target
  EQT (EQT – $32.85) – Buy under $35; $70 first target
  Energy Fuels (UUUU – $5.48) – Buy under $8; $30 target
  Freeport McMoRan (FCX – $42.94) – Buy under $44; $65 target within two years

Holds
These are holds but not sells – yet. They could get moved back to one of the buy categories if their prices drop or outlook improves, or they could become sell recommendations in the future.
  Akebia Biotherapeutics (AKBA – $0.64) – Hold for FDA decision
  Arch Therapeutics (ARTH – $3.30) – Hold for buyout
  Graphite Bio (GRPH – $2.52) – Hold until they update their strategy
  TG Therapeutics (TGTX – $20.15) – Hold for buyout at $25+

Publisher: GwynRose LLC, 5348 Vegas Drive, Suite 868, Las Vegas, NV 89108

New World Investor does not act as a personal investment adviser or advocate the purchase or sale of any security or investment for any specific individual. The recommendations and analysis presented to members are for the exclusive use of members. Members should be aware that investment markets have inherent risks and there can be no guarantee of future profits. Likewise, past performance does not assure future results. Recommendations are subject to change at any time. Nothing in this presentation should be considered personalized investment advice. No communication to you by Michael Murphy or any of our employees or contractors should be deemed as personalized investment advice.

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