Radar Report – 7.6.23

Michael Murphy
Uncategorized
2023-07-06
06
Jul 23

Dear New World Investor:

Yesterday’s Fed minutes showed some of them were reluctant to back the pause that was finally decided. Almost all backed more increases in 2023 unless inflation comes down – no surprise there to us, although apparently Wall Street was shocked, shocked. Even after today’s new unemployment filings rose by 12,000 to 248,000, a bit higher than expected, the CME FedWatch tool showed markets are now pricing in a 92.4% chance of a hike at the Fed’s July 26 meeting.

The Institute for Supply Management’s manufacturing gauge fell for the eighth straight month to 46.0 in June, the weakest since May 2020, from 46.9 in May. The current stretch of readings below 50, which indicates shrinking activity, is the longest since 2008-2009. The index of new orders contracted for a 10th straight month, order backlogs shrank, and manufacturing employment fell to 48.1, a three-month low.

It’s obvious that the manufacturing economy is in a recession while consumers are still spending on services. Tomorrow we get the June payrolls report, which is likely to be stronger than expected, and next Wednesday we get the Consumer Price Index report, which at the headline level is likely to be weaker than expected. The Fed has a tough call to make at the July meeting.

Especially since a new economic indicator from the Fed shows financial conditions remain the most restrictive since the 2008 financial crisis. According to the indicator, financial conditions are expected to weigh on economic growth, or gross domestic product, by roughly 0.75 percentage point over the next year. That could convince them that their rate-hiking campaign to slow the economy is taking hold.

Click for larger graphic

Market Outlook

The S&P 500 added 0.3% in this holiday-shortened week since last Thursday. The Index is up 14.9% year-to-date. The Nasdaq Composite gained 0.6% and is up 30.7% for the year. The small-cap Russell 2000 was weakest again, dropping 2.1%, and is up only 4.6% in 2023.

The fractal dimension didn’t move much in this nothing burger week, so we still are in rally mode. Let’s see what tomorrow’s payrolls and next week’s CPI do.

Top 5

Changes this week: None

Near-Term – chronological order
EQT EQT –natural gas price rebound
USL United States 12 Month Oil Fund, LP – crude should rise quickly
SFTBY SoftBank – for ARM IPO this fall
AKBA Akebia – Vadadustat NDA filing 2023; approval 2024
VLD Velo3D – Rapid revenue growth; low market cap

Long-Term – alphabetical order
EQT EQT – largest US natural gas company
NVTA Invitae – the winner-take-most of genetic testing
META Meta – a (the?) leader in the metaverse
RKLB Rocket Lab – #2 to SpaceX in space
VLD Velo3D – Return manufacturing to the US
GBTC Grayscale Bitcoin Trust – Bitcoin is headed for $100,000

Economy

The Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow model increased its forecast for June quarter real GDP from +1.9% to +2.1% after the Institute for Supply Management Services Index ticked up from 50.3 in May to 53.9 in June, well ahead of the consensus expectation for an increase to 51.2.


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As Neil Dutta, head of economics at Renaissance Macro Research, wrote: Wall Street’s fearmongers were totally wrong about a recession.

Coming Events
All times below are ET, and most presentations and slides are archived on the companies’ websites so you can listen to them.

Friday, July 7
June payrolls – 8:30am – +225,000 expected; was 339,000 in May

Tuesday, July 11
CMPS – Compass Pathways – 8:00am – Webinar on new AMA code

Wednesday, July 12
Consumer Price Index – 8:30am
Short Interest – After the close

Big Tech: The Biotech & Digital Dominators MegaShift
There are at least four ways to make money in the stocks of these large, growing, dominant companies. You can:
* * Buy a stock and hold it
* * Buy a stock and write a call option against it
* * With a Level IV options account, write an out-of-the-money put option
* * With a Level IV options account, write an out-of-the-money put option and use part of the premium to buy an out-of-the-money call option

Apple (AAPL – $191.81) “is a great company, there’s not a ton of fundamentals driving this right now,” said Cleo Capital managing director Sarah Kunst. “Will people be getting out once they cross that $3 trillion threshold? Before the Vision Pro is introduced? Before they have to grapple with whether anyone actually wants this VR? I don’t think we have an answer to that yet.”

And where will the stock be when we do have an answer, Sarah? According to Citigroup, Apple has room to rally another 30%. They started coverage of the stock – perhaps a tad late? – with a Buy rating and a $240 target price, the highest on Wall Street.

All this is pure silliness, of course. I know at least three people who cannot tell you where Apple stock will be on June 30, 2024 – Sarah Kunst, the Citi analyst, and me. The Wall Street guessing game’s only purpose is to write trade tickets and get commissions. The real question is whether you want to associate some of your capital with this management of this company for the next few years. For me, that’s a hard “Yes.”

AAPL is a Buy under $150 for new iPhone rollouts and augmented/virtual reality products.

Meta Platforms (META – $291.99) launched Threads, a Twitter competitor, and got 30 million users in a day. Threads is a new app, built by the Instagram team, for sharing text updates and joining public conversations. Users log in using their Instagram account. Posts can be up to 500 characters long and include links, photos, and videos up to five minutes long.

Zuck has two problems to overcome. The first is attracting the thought leaders, celebrities, politicians, journalists, and academics who make Twitter worth using. The second is that he is not a Free Speech First kind of guy. But Elon Musk is. The good news is the downside is limited because even a modest success will produce incremental revenue and profits. META is a Buy under $150 for a $400 target in 2024.

Small Tech

Enovix (ENVX – $18.63) appointed Farhan Ahmad as Chief Financial Officer. From 1999 to 2011 he worked for Applied Materials in engineering, product management, and strategic marketing. He got three patents in semiconductor processing technology, He then went to Wall Street from 2011-2018 as an analyst at Credit Suisse covering semiconductors, and semiconductor equipment stocks. Since 2019 he’s been Vice President, Investor Relations and Finance Strategy at Micron. ENVX is a Buy up to $13 for a 4-year hold to $100+ as their BrakeFlow lithium-ion battery takes market share.
Primary Risk: A new competitor invents a better battery.

Biotech MegaShift: The $20-For-$1 Stocks

Say you put $2,000 into a stock that goes from 50¢ a share to $10. The $2,000 turns into $40,000. Then you put the $40,000 into another stock that goes from 50¢ to $10. That turns the $40,000 into $800,000. You did it with two stocks and never risked going negative more than $2,000. (Not that you won’t be mad at me if the first one works and then the second one doesn’t, taking your $40,000 to Money Heaven.)

If you can afford it – and it would not be too big a position in your portfolio – putting $2,000 into each of these speculative biotechs might be a good way to start. Buying these out-of-favor, fallen, or forgotten companies that can get important products through the FDA at very low market capitalizations seems like a good strategy to me.

Risks

Development-stage biotechs are subject to investor sentiment swings from wildly optimistic to excessively pessimistic – mostly the latter recently. After the Primary Risk for each company, I’ve added the clinical stage of their lead product, the probable time of their first FDA approval, and the probable time of their next financing.

As always, you need to think about an appropriate position size. You could buy a full position upfront and then just hold on, or buy some upfront and leave room to add more on the inevitable financings, transient clinical trial setbacks, and the like.

Compass Pathways (CMPS – $9.34) got a term loan agreement with Hercules Capital for up to $50 million in non-dilutive financing to support their COMP360 Phase 3 trial in treatment-resistant depression.

The American Medical Association has released the language of its new Current Procedural Terminology (CPT) III code for Continuous In-Person Monitoring and Intervention During Psychedelic Medication Therapy. The code will go into effect on January 1. Compass is holding a webinar on the code next Tuesday morning. CMPS is a Buy under $20 for a very long-term hold to a 10x.
Primary Risk: Their drugs fail in the clinic.
   Clinical stage of lead product: Phase 2
   Probable time of first FDA approval: 2025
   Probable time of next financing: Late 2023

Medicenna (MDNA – $0.47) extended the expiration date of 1,549,052 outstanding warrants originally issued as part of a public offering of units on October 17, 2019. The $1.75 warrants were going to expire on July 17, 2023. They extended the expiration date to October 17, 2024 with no change to the exercise price. Buy MDNA under $3 for a first target of $20, then maybe $40.
Primary Risk: Their drugs fail in the clinic.
   Clinical stage of lead product: Entering Phase 3
   Probable time of first FDA approval: 2024
   Probable time of next financing: March 2024

Inflation MegaShift

Gold ($1,916.90) is stuck in a tight $1,900 to $1,935 trading range, causing the fractal dimension to barely stay in trend mode. Another down week would abort the trend and send gold back into consolidation.

Cryptocurrencies

Cryptocurrencies are a diversifying asset that offer a unique opportunity to make (or lose!) a lot of money quickly. You can easily buy bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies at Coinbase, Block, or Robinhood.

Bitcoin (BTC-USD on Yahoo – $30,299.71) briefly fell below $30,000. The Wall Street Journal reported that US securities regulator said recent applications for spot bitcoin exchange-traded funds are inadequate. But Fidelity, one of the largest asset managers in the US, refiled for a Bitcoin spot ETF and said that it would enter into a surveillance-sharing agreement with an unnamed “operator of a United States-based spot trading platform for bitcoin.” (Coinbase.) That mirrors BlackRock’s mid-June application in, which it said that Nasdaq would list their exchange-traded fund and surveil the bitcoin market to ensure that there was no market manipulation

The Fidelity listing application was filed by the CBOE, which also refiled listing applications for bitcoin ETFs by WisdomTree, VanEck, and a joint effort from Invesco and Galaxy. It said in all of the filings it plans to enter into a surveillance-sharing agreement with Coinbase. And we’re waiting for a decision any day in the Grayscale Bitcoin case against the SEC.

Click for larger graphic

BTC-USD, ETH-USD, GBTC, and ETHE are Strong Buys.
Primary Risk: Bitcoin falls due to over-regulation or is surpassed by another cryptocurrency.

Commodities

Oil – $71.91

Oil is starting to inch up as reality bites. The Energy Information Administration’s oil storage report today was bullish. The crude draw was slightly less than expected due to lower-than-expected refinery throughput, but the implied US oil demand figures were far better than expected – 21.235 million barrels a day, up 771,000 barrels a day from last year.


Click for larger graphic h/t @HFI_Research

According to GasBuddy data, weekly US gasoline demand rose 4.3% from last week and was 4.5% above the four-week average. Implied demand from the big three – gasoline, distillates, and jet fuel, is in a strong uptrend.


Click for larger graphic h/t @HFI_Research

While storage is very low.


Click for larger graphic h/t @HFI_Research

Money managers are more positioned for lower oil prices than they’ve been in 10 years. They are about to get hosed.

Click for larger graphic h/t @KempEnergy

To summarize, US oil demand is growing steadily, US shale oil production is peaking, speculator positioning is close to record bearish, and the Strategic Petroleum Reserve releases are ending. Next stop: $80, then $100. Got oil?

The July 2026 Crude Oil Futures (CLN26.NYM – $63.46) are a Buy under $65 for a $200+ target. Only buy futures for all cash; do not use margin.

The United States 12 Month Oil Fund, LP (USL – $32.98) is a Buy under $35 for a $100+ target.

Energy Fuels (UUUU – $5.65) will go up with – probably faster than – the price of uranium. Stephen McBride did a good Twitter thread on the investment case for uranium in five charts:

1. The most important factor for the uranium price, and for choosing the right time to invest is the contracting cycle. Every contracting cycle in history has coincided with a huge spike in uranium prices. Volumes are on track for their best year in a decade.

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2.. The Fukushima disaster in Japan plunged the entire uranium industry into a depression. In 2011, there were almost 600 operating uranium companies. There are less than 50 today. Most uranium stocks went to zero. Now uranium prices at at their highest level in over a decade.


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3. Inventories measure how much uranium power plants hold in reserve. Nuclear plants typically keep two to three years worth of uranium on hand for security reasons. It costs hundreds of millions of dollars to shut down and restart a nuclear plant. Energy Information Administration data shows inventory levels for US nuclear utilities at just 16 months today. That’s the lowest level since 2012 and as low as they can go. Utilities have no choice but to start signing long term contracts.

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4. After raw uranium is mined, it is sent to enrichment facilities and converted into nuclear fuel. As uranium demand fell off a cliff, so did enrichment orders. Any normal business could idle its factories during a slowdown, but enrichment machines can’t be shut down. They must keep spinning at full throttle.

Enrichers came up with a clever plan. Say it usually takes 5 lbs. of uranium to make a pound of nuclear fuel. By “spinning” only 4 lbs. of uranium for much longer, they could make the same amount of nuclear fuel. This is known as “underfeeding.” Enrichers then dump the leftover uranium onto the market.

Over the past decade underfeeding made up 10% of annual supply, but this trend is reversing. Russia controls 40% of the uranium enrichment market and accounted for the vast majority of underfeeding. But due to the Ukraine war, western utilities are pivoting away from Russian enrichment.

Underfeeding dumped 20 million lbs. of uranium into the market each year over the past decade. The swing to overfeeding could take 20 million lbs. out of the market per year for the next two or three years. That’s a 40-million-pound swing in favor of higher prices.


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5. The world is quickly waking up to the reality that we need nuclear for a clean energy future. Nuclear is coming off its most pivotal quarter in half a century. Every major government did a U-turn in favor of nuclear in the past few months.

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UUUU is a buy under $8 for a $30 target.
Primary Risk: Uranium prices fall.

Freeport McMoRan (FCX – $37.91) declared a 15¢ quarterly dividend, which included a 7.5¢ “base “ dividend and a 7.5¢ “variable” dividend. The variable portion will follow copper prices up. FCX is a buy under $44 for a $65 target within two years.
Primary Risk: Copper prices fall.

* * * * *

Remembering Jim Morison 12/8/43-7/3/71

* * * * *

Your Editor,

Michael Murphy CFA
Founding Editor
New World Investor

All Recommendations

Check out the complete Portfolio page HERE.

Buys
These are the stocks everyone needs to own because transformative events are happening over the next year or two, and I expect to hold them long-term.

Tech Dominators
  Apple Computer (AAPL – $191.81) – Buy under $150 for new iPhones
  Corning (GLW – $34.65) – Buy under $33, target price $60
  Gilead Sciences (GILD – $76.24) – Buy under $80, target price $120
  Meta (META – $291.99) – Buy under $250, target price $400
  SoftBank (SFTBY – $23.31) – Buy under $25, target price $50

Small Tech
  Enovix (ENVX – $18.63) – Buy under $13; 4-year hold to $100+
  First Trust NASDAQ Cybersecurity ETF (CIBR – $44.60) – Buy under $40; 3- to 5-year hold
  Fastly (FSLY – $15.29) – Buy under $20; 2- to 5-year hold to $80+
  PagerDuty (PD – $21.93) – Buy under $30; 2- to 5-year hold
  QuickLogic (QUIK – $8.92) – Buy under $10, target price $40
  Rocket Lab (RKLB – $5.60) – Buy under $13, target price $30+
  Velo3D (VLD – $2.07) – Buy under $6, target price $50

$20-for-$1
  Akebia Biotherapeutics (AKBA – $0.87) – Buy under $2, target $20
  Aptose Biosciences (APTO – $4.56) – Buy under $10, ultimate target $300
  Compass Pathways (CMPS – $9.34) – Buy under $20, hold a long time for a 10x return
  Inovio (INO – $0.50) – Buy under $7, hold a long time
  Invitae (NVTA – $1.05) – Buy under $10, first target $50, then $100+
  Medicenna (MDNA – $0.47) – Buy under $3, first target $20, then maybe $40
  ScyNexis (SCYX – $2.87) – Buy under $2.50, target price $20, then $50

Inflation
  A Short-Sale or REO House – ($447,000) – Hold
  Bag of Junk Silver – ($22.92) – hold through silver bull market
  Sprott Gold Miners ETF (SGDM – $24.89) – Buy under $28, target price $50
  Sprott Junior Gold Miners ETF (SGDJ – $27.75) – Buy under $39, target price $100
  Sprott Physical Gold and Silver Trust (CEF – $17.88) – Buy under $18, target price $30
  Global X Silver Miners ETF (SIL – $25.05) – Buy under $30, target price $50
  Coeur Mining (CDE – $2.66) – Buy under $5, target price $20
  First Majestic Mining (AG – $5.50) – Buy under $11, next target price $23
  Paramount Gold Nevada (PZG – $0.31) – Buy under $1, first target price $10
  Sandstorm Gold (SAND – $4.96) – Buy under $10, target price $25
  Sprott Inc. (SII – $31.93) – Buy under $40, target price $70

Cryptocurrencies
  Bitcoin (BTC-USD – $30,299.71) – Buy
  Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC – $20.08) – Buy
  Ethereum (ETH-USD – $1,842.03) – Buy
  Grayscale Ethereum Trust (ETHE – $9.91) – Buy

Commodities
  Crude Oil Futures – July 2026 (CLN26.NYM – $63.46) – Buy under $65; $200+ target
  United States 12 Month Oil Fund, LP (USL – $32.98) – Buy under $35; $100+ target
  EQT (EQT – $39.28) – Buy under $35; $70 first target
  Energy Fuels (UUUU – $5.65) – Buy under $8; $30 target
  Freeport McMoRan (FCX – $37.91) – Buy under $44; $65 target within two years

International & Other Recommendations
  EMQQ Emerging Markets Internet & Ecommerce ETF (EMQQ – $28.91) – Buy under $38 for a $66 target in 12 to 18 months
  KraneShares Bosera MSCI China A Share Fund (KBA – $22.93) – Buy under $40 for a three- to five-year hold
  Morgan Stanley China A-Shares Fund (CAF – $12.51) – Buy under $18 for a three- to five-year hold
  KraneShares CSI China Internet ETF (KWEB – $26.49) – Buy under $40 for a double over the next three years
  Acreage Holdings (ACRDF – $0.18) – Buy under $2 for the Canopy Growth merger
  Mongolia Growth Group (MNGGF – $0.87) – Buy under $1.30; long-term hold

Holds
These are holds but not sells – yet. They could get moved back to one of the buy categories if their prices drop or outlook improves, or they could become sell recommendations in the future.
  Arch Therapeutics (ARTH – $2.85) – Hold for buyout
  Graphite Bio (GRPH – $2.68) – Hold until they update their strategy
  TG Therapeutics (TGTX – $23.04) – Hold for buyout at $25+

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uuuu looks like a good buy, as does grayscale,thanks Michael.

I totally agree. Just look at the number of nuke plants that are planned into the future. Even Japan ,which shut them down after that accident is now reopening all of their plants. As well as bitcoin. The government is now going crypto with FED NOW. So don’t worry, be happy. And now they are floating the idea of giving everyone on the lower income landscape $1000 a month in payments. Soon we will all be drinking that free bubble up and eating that rainbow stew!!!

RFK, Jr, the only Dem I like, still says that nuclear isn’t clean and is still accident prone.

Oh, I agree. I don’t like it either.,But now it’s suddenly “better” than fossil fuel and the powers that be are embracing it. Go figure. A few years ago, Washington State closed down a giant facility that they already put millions of tax payers $$$$$$$ in because too many voices said it was bad for humanity. Now suddenly it a “go to” green solution to all of our problems!!

Yet another thing he is wrong about. Most people think that storage of the nuclear waste is a problem but read this from the DOE: “If we take that a step further, U.S. commercial reactors have generated about 90,000 metric tons of spent fuel since the 1950s. If all of it were able to be stacked together, it could fit on a single football field at a depth of less than 10 yards.”

Nuke power is really our only option if we want to get off fossil fuels. China has 55 nuke power plants with another 40 planned. I think that big oil has complete control over the US congress and is holding back progress.

Musk has great take: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TIAqh2o1Jf4

Specious propaganda from the DOE. One milligram of biological weapons could kill a large number of people, worse than even gallons of political hot air. A tiny amount of nuke waste is still a killer. Is there any such thing as “spent” nuke waste? Isotopes decay numerous times and last lifetimes.

Is FED NOW the central bank digital currency that people are talking about?

ENVX–the science of its battery is still speculative, NOT clearly superior to the competition. What does Farhan Ahmad know about the SOTA in battery technology? What engineering has he done? (I am a holistic internist, but don’t trust me in the field of orthopedics.) No financial analyst has been to their labs to see firsthand. (By contrast, top nutritional companies I recommend have sent me or published certificates of analysis by independent 3rd parties, and invite MD’s to visit and inspect their facilities any time. I have also spoken with and have received certificates from raw ingredient manufacturers.) Even if the science is sound, there is too much competition, so this is still a highly speculative company. Look at ARTH, whose AC5 is clearly a superior solution. A near total BUST.

ENVX-Exactly, that is why you do not own just them but some of their competitors as well. In my case I picked MVST (up 15% today on no news). For some reason lots of companies in this and other tech fields have attracted a lot of capital in the 2020-21 Covid financial orgy and now some of them are potentially failing and during last year’s Bear Market they have been targeted by the bears. Who knows if eventually, sometime in the future, ENVX will disappear as well…BUT who cares. The beauty of having a lot of bears on board is that they panic just like the bulls, even worse. So all you needed is this news on potential DoD contracts, no size no nothing, and the stock is off to the races as the shorts buy it back to cover their losing positions. Anybody that bot at or near MM’s recommendation is up close to 50%. In the short term, as a trade, $20 or slightly above could be a good target to liquidate a partial position or all of it. The point of trading/investing is not to be right about anything but to make money.

ARTH came to mind as they too spent years trying to convince the Pentagon to insert an AC5 emergency blood clotting device in soldiers’ IFAKs to no avail, while ENVX made it look real easy. Indeed, that should have been a low hanging fruit for ARTH, an easy sell. But no, just another failure in the long and painful saga. You are right in mentioning it but I suggest you forget about it and move on to the next speculation; you may indeed find one that will pay you back 20-30x what you lost with Terry the Loser.

Last edited 2 years ago by Pico Della Mirandola

Good points. Except two.

  1. Trading spec stocks is tough. How do you know when the spec party is over, and the reality of a low quality stock with lots of competition sets in?
  2. A few elementary math examples. You’re down 50% on a stock. It takes a 100% gain to break even. With lots of NWI stocks, you’re down 90-98%. The reciprocal of 2-10% survival is a 10-50-fold or 1000-5000% gain to break even. Just about NEVER.
  3. The advisor Richard Young had a cardinal rule #1–never lose money. Rule #2–never forget rule #1.

#2. That is clearly a theoretical statement that does not reflect the normal behaviour of a well managed portfolio. Allowing capital losses to balloon past, say, 20-25%on an a single stock position is a recipe for reaching the mathematical examples you are describing. Riding a stock to zero is just as irrational as never selling a 20x winner. It is true that MM has had his share of wipeouts but he is not responsible for teaching subs how to buy and sell his ideas. Portfolio Management, trading, keeping emotions under control and cutting losses have to be part of each investors’ arsenal and, in general, are perceived as being “easy”. After all, buying and selling is only one click away and zero commissions. Clearly a misconception as in reality Investing is just as difficult a human activity as Brain Surgery or Marathon Running. It is very hard, it requires a lot of training and dedication and many years of experience.

#3. With platitudes like that, forget about stocks, futures, commodities or even the Long Bond. Only thing to do is CDs, at least now they are around 4.5% for a 5 year maturity instead of near zero a short 2 years ago.

MM has had so many wipeouts that the few home runs don’t make up for the wipeouts. Never mind the manipulated math that claimed he had a good/great track record. In practice, the subscriber cannot do equal weighting of spec stocks. Probably nearly every subscriber makes a judgment as to which stocks are not minefields. In a minefield, even good judgment gets you severely hurt. Crossing the street with your eyes closed eventually gets you killed from a driver who isn’t paying attention.

As a minimum, I would have been better off in CD’s than my NWI portfolio for the past 10 years. And that’s with waiting for lower prices after the NWI stocks slumped. Thankfully, the bulk of my money has been in blue chips. When MM recommended blue chips like TSM, I held on, and this has saved me from total NWI wipeout. Along with MSFT, UNH and others recommended by prudent conservative advisors.

As for fiduciary responsibility, an advisor is not legally liable for bad subscriber returns. However, the best advisors still teach trading wisdom. Rick Rule advised selling half of any stock that doubles to recoup investment, and letting the rest ride, in a “no concern” manner. MM’s buy and hold philosophy is just plain wrong for spec stocks. For blue chips, the Buffett buy/hold is OK.

Today’s winners. SMCI, (up total 324 percent since 8/29/22) SOFI (up 32 percent) and TGTX ( up 84 percent) . Also NVTA up 10 percent. Call me crazy but I bought some more last week as well as INO and QUIK.

QUIK is a real company–innovating and producing sales. One of these years they will be profitable. INO and NVTA are junk companies and irrelevant to the practice of medicine and true health care, except for a fringe group of people. For the fringe, profitable companies are able to charge exorbitant fees to make up for the small volume of cases. Very few current vaccines have a favorable benefit/risk ratio.