Dear New World Investor: Although tomorrow is a stock market holiday, we are supposed to get the February Personal Consumption Index inflation. Core PCE is estimated at over 3%, which will keep the Fed in “High – but not higher – for longer” mode. Click for larger graphic h/t...

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Dear New World Investor: The Fed met and said the economy is much stronger than they expected but they still expect three quarter-point reductions in the Fed funds rate this year. I think they’re wrong on both counts. You could obsess over the gory details or you could just...

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Dear New World Investor: There’s now $8 trillion in money market funds and CDs. Most of that will stay in some form of fixed income, but some has been waiting for a market drop to buy stocks. Friday’s record S&P 500 close should get some of the sideline money...

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Dear New World Investor: The January Consumer Price Index (CPI) came in at +6.4% year-over-year, its lowest since October 2021 but hotter than expected, and +0,5% month-over-month. The index for shelter accounted for nearly half of the monthly increase and was by far the largest contributor. As we (and...

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Dear New World Investor: Did non-farm payrolls really rise by 517,000 in January, clobbering the consensus estimate for 185,000? No, they did not. The Bureau of Labor Statistics changed the seasonal adjustment factors retroactively for 2022 and dumped all the changes into the January report. As Bloomberg chief economist...

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Dear New World Investor: “We can now say for the first time that the disinflationary process has started.” – Fed Chairman Powell, who used the word “disinflation” 12 times in yesterday’s press conference The Fed increased the funds rate a quarter-point yesterday to a new range of 4.50% to...

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Dear New World Investor: Last Friday’s “strong” (well, higher than expected) nonfarm payrolls report, +263,000, set off a five-day losing streak in the S&P 500 that ended today. Investors are afraid that the Fed might keep the interest rate pressure higher for longer, thus causing a harder economic downturn...

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Dear New World Investor: The markets – bonds and stocks, here and overseas – have been brutal as we spiral towards a classic October bottom. There are two important factors few people are talking about that will stop Fed tightening soon, but first, the one people are talking about:...

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As we go into the slow holiday week, the S&P 500 will probably hang around current levels. The daily fractal dimension is up to 48 and climbing as the market consolidates. The short-term is up to 60, and can start a brief downtrend at any time. Gold also is...

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