Market Outlook – 9.5.16

Michael Murphy
2016-09-05
05
Sep 16

The S&P 500 looks like it is finally ready to break out to new highs over 2200. As the underinvested and bearish hedge fund managers get back from the Hamptons, the high fractal dimension on the daily chart can power a move that will put tremendous pressure on them. I expect this upswing will last to the September 21 turn date, although I’d rather see a decline into that date to set up a surprise October rally.

160902 2 sep3esD

Gold bounced off $1,306 and touched its 38.2% retracement level on Friday. The fractal dimension dropped through 55 on Thursday and the trend changed to up. This move should take gold over $1,350, on the way to $1,400.

160902 4 sep3gD

Bitcoin showed some strength over the weekend, and is back over my buy limit. The 38.2% retracement of the drop from June 18 to August 2 is at $613. A break over that level would be very meaningful.

160904-bitcoin-graphicClick for larger graphic

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RICHARD

1st?
What a boring life I lead

MR. DAVID KISTLER

Are you expecting this bull market to end sometime in Q4 2016? If so what is your plan then?

SATYDAVE4
STEVEN

MM, is tech support still working on returning either the orange “I read this already” boxes or the ability to respond directly to a thread? Both are missed………

DRCHARLS

Sixth
Doc.

STEVEN

Thank MM. And I second the concern JINRNO!

oldster3

*****Michael Murphy User ID: 7191 @ 2016-09-05 12:43 Comment # 229202 *****
—– You couldn’t be more Wrong-Headed……shame….That’s why I use “The Cheap Investor” and Harry Boxer’s service…..You could have saved your customers tons of money — but, chose to do otherwise…….
+
Good Luck to all here, I’m gone……

Donald Galamaga

Good Morning all. Gold Silver CDE PZG etc, Happy

Wendy L.

Yes always bother me someone posted $7-$10 NUGT when gold, gdx, silver nugt etc are on the uptrend although not the best values to enter this time.. Happened when they touched apparent bottom earlier this year as well. Wonder how many are you who missed the boat due to this reason.

PS: I am not in full positons on NUGT and DSLV this time. FYI.

fubar

I’m pretty happy with NUGT. Invested 3 trading days ago,
up 35%!

StephKam

@oldster3,
Oh don’t go — we love you so. We don’t care if you aren’t always right (who is?), you add interest to our conversation here, and focus on technicals to what would otherwise only be a gaggle of hopes and guesses, and sometimes also a touch of humanity to attitudes that seem to ignore it. You say you’re still subscribed… so stay.
FWIW, I was otherwise occupied (new roof) when LABU went below 40 and by the time I saw it decided to hang on for now. I will certainly exit if it takes out last week’s low (don’t expect that) but would like to hang on if I can since I see better-than-average prospects for this sector should the market rally. (Yes. It should. Of course it should. Unless….)
@WendyL, @fubar,
I too (thank you Wendy) am pretty happy with NUGT. Took the one piece I mentioned and caught another below 18, not a full position (as you say) but enough to notice and participate if gold takes aim at 1390-1400. My profit is more like 28% but I’m not complaining (or jealous).
@oldster3,
Go kick the stuffing out of a pillow and get it out of your system… and then come back and participate. I don’t mind begging but I’m resolved not to say “What’ve you got to lose?”

Curious1

Michael Murphy: comment 229211,
Yea, but they have been looking for a while, what is the progress?
Are we stuck with no threads, and no comments section, and no deadline to get back to what we had? It appears so.

Curious1

Hillary’s Four (4) Minute Cough Speech: 10 doctors express their concern

Trump tweet: “I think that both candidates, Crooked Hillary and myself, should release detailed medical records. I have no problem in doing so! Hillary?”

Read more at http://www.wnd.com/2016/08/10-prominent-doctors-question-hillarys-health/#fQxjQdts4IyFAlfw.99

Chris

BCRX has a cure for Ebola!!!

Sept. 07, 2016 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) — BioCryst Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (NASDAQ:BCRX) today announced positive results from a proof-of-concept study of its broad spectrum antiviral, BCX4430, for the delayed treatment of Ebola virus infection in rhesus macaques.
The goals of this 28-day study were to assess the effect of different dosing regimens of BCX4430 administered by i.m. injection on survival in rhesus macaques with established Ebola virus disease. The study consisted of three treatment groups of six animals each treated with different BCX4430 dosing schedules and one control group of six animals.
“USAMRIID was pleased to work with our partners at BioCryst to advance the understanding of the efficacy of BCX4430. We are encouraged by the favorable results demonstrating significant efficacy of BCX4430 under delayed treatment scenarios,” said Dr. Travis K. Warren, Principal Investigator, USAMRIID. “The available human safety data and new efficacy data position BCX4430 as a highly promising therapeutic that could potentially be used to treat people with Ebola virus disease when future outbreaks arise.”

More: http://investor.shareholder.com/biocryst/releaseDetail.cfm?ReleaseID=988059

Donald Galamaga

Good Morning all. Aralez scores a drug from Merck. Does this change the SELL after approval this Sept of the coated aspirin pill?
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/aralez-acquires-united-states-canadian-123400653.html

Edward

@ Donald, I would like to know the answer to your question as well.

lawrence naresh

mm , please let us know if we should buy stock of any of the drugs mentioned above that have got approvals …maybe a quick buy and sell ?

TevisM

@Chris

You nailed in on the WATT put! Thank you.

Wendy L.

XLE – appears about to break to the upside imo. Maybe to higher $70s or lower $80s imo if the trend continues.

Donald Galamaga

@Chris, Looks like a bit of dilution taking place with KNTNF. On the other hand, it also appears that production of gold is underway in several places. Might just catch a following wind of gold prices as this rolls out:
K92 Mining Announces Conversion of 2,500,000 Class A Preferred Shares by CRH Funding II Pte. Ltd., Acceleration of Expiry Date of Warrants and Extension to Gold Delivery Date

BY Marketwire – Canada
— 2:43 PM ET 09/06/2016

VANCOUVER, BRITISH COLUMBIA–(Marketwired – Sept. 6, 2016) – K92 Mining Inc. ( KNTNF (the “Company” or “K92”) is pleased to announce that CRH Funding II Pte. Ltd. (“CRH”) has exercised its right to convert 2,500,000 Class A Preferred Shares (the “Conversion Shares”) of the 10,000,000 Class A Preferred Shares (the “Preferred Shares”) currently held by CRH. The Conversion Shares will be converted into 4,751,831 Common shares of the Company and CRH will hold 4.79% of the issued and outstanding Common shares of the Company following the conversion.

All 10,000,000 Preferred Shares held by CRH are convertible into an aggregate of 19,007,324 Common shares of the Company. The terms and provisions attached to the Preferred Shares are detailed in the Company’s Information Circular dated April 15, 2016 and filed on SEDAR on April 19, 2016.

Given the Company’s common shares have traded above $1.25 for at least 10 consecutive trading days, the Company has provided CRH with an acceleration notice pursuant to the terms of the 10,000,000 Common share purchase warrants previously granted to CRH (the “Warrants”) whereby all Warrants held by CRH will now expire on October 8, 2016. Each Warrant entitles CRH to purchase one Common share of the Company at an exercise price of CDN$0.75 per share.

Further, while the Company remains on schedule and on budget with regards to the restart of gold production, the Company and CRH also agreed to extend the deadline for the delivery by the Company of 3,000 ounces of refined gold produced from Irumafimpa to CRH required under the Gold Prepayment Agreement dated February 4, 2016 from December 31, 2016 to March 31, 2017. This will give the Company further flexibility as it evaluates the results of studies related to production at Kora and the doubling of mill capacity to 400,000 tpa (see K92 News Releases July 7th and August 17th for details).

Mr. Peter Yu, CRH Director, states, “Today’s announcement describes multiple positive developments for K92 representing a further strengthening of the relationship between Cartesian and K92.”

BTGOLD

“theeconomiccollapseblog dot com” . . . ummm …. yeah, that’s where I will get objective & factual analysis about the state of the economy. a little bit old this: http://www.marketminder.com/a/fisher-investments-subprime-auto-loans-not-another-2008/71f1ff91-bfd8-4034-9dd5-11b73cbc8c78

William Klawonn

I have not been around for a while. I am focused on WMIH.

WMIH should now be on your watch list. It has taken longer than expected. WMIH had an acquisition lined up in the middle of 2015, but it fell through. All indications are that they are working on something else that – according to things that were said at the ASM – may well happen this year. No promises, of course, but the stock is gradually ticking up. It is now in the Russell 2000 and institutional holdings have increased. I am not a chart person, but am told by people who are that the chart looks good.
Remember that KKR is running this show. WMIH still has $6billion in Net Operating Losses inherited at the end of the Chapter 11 proceeding from WMI, the former parent of Washington Mutual Bank. Those NOL’s will give WMIH a significant price advantage in whatever industry (probably banking or insurance) they choose for an acquistion.

BTW, what ever happened to IFNY? Stan just decided to go into hibernation? I tried to warn him not to do that RS unless it was accompanied by news of an extremely positive development. I cannot believe I invested in a company run by someone so lacking in understanding.

Arnold

WK: Welcome back. IFNY – No news that I’m aware of, but that’s probably not a good sign. I’ve felt for over a year that it’s probably a hopeless investment for (current) public shareholders. Even if it survives, the lion’s share of the production interest will have to be given to private investors and/or development and production partners. Hudson (?) may be limited to holding <10%, but they'll probably still be paid with zillions of penny shares that they'll use to overhang the market.

shawn

Nice to hear from you William Klawonn. What do you anticipate happening to our escrow/LT positions in Washington Mutual? Thanks for you opinion, I will take it as just that, an opinion.

William Klawonn

shawn: I think that – depending on the resolution of the employee claims and the potential for the MARTA claim to be re-filed (note that I seriously doubt, but cannot be sure, that the MARTA claim will be re-filed) – the best available information indicates there may be anywhere between $20m and something more than $100m left for escrows. That would be $2 to $10+ for a “P” escrow.

For there to be more than that, new money would have to come from somewhere, and there have been theories about that, but no one can say for sure if that will happen or how much. I only allow it as a possibility.

I think it is a fairly good bet – not certain – that WMIH will complete an acquisition in the next 6 months, probably before end of 2016, and go on to be an $8+ stock over the next 3 years.

Donald Galamaga

Good afternoon all. That Apache discovery (APA) in West Texas is really major. Interesting lesson, always look for equities that might supply or be related to the big news. My pleasant surprise this morning is the Texas Pacific Land Trust (TPL), which leases land in that area from an old railroad trust. I have a few shares. The mandate of TPL is to slowly go out of business over time getting rid of old railroad land. They retire a few hundred shares every year. Worth a long term look, IMHO.

Chris

At the open this morning, someone placed about $190,000 on a bet that WATT would continue to drop, buying 900 Sept 17.50 puts between 1.70 and 2.10. So far, that’s been a good bet.
Someone also bot 500 Sept $15 Puts between 50 and 70 cents (around $3,250) but it looks like they may have closed those out around 10:45 a.m. for abut $4100.
I am sure there are a lot of disappointed WATT owners as the stock is down over 20% since Wednesday morning.

Curious1

The ‘word’ is that TEVA will update the EPI-Pen generic status on Friday, in their conference on generics. This is from multiple individuals as sources, and is credible to me.

fosterg

Oldster, I also would be sorry to see you go. if you dont mind answering a question, do your sources still think gold will take a big downturn before heading up? So far Edelson seems to be wrong and maybe got us in too late.