Dear New World Investor:
Last Friday’s payroll number was stronger than expected and this morning’s December Consumer Price Index announcement came in hotter than expected. In part, it was driven by base effects – a low December 2022 number – and will drop significantly next month due to…base effects. The headline annual increase was 3.4% year-over-year (YoY), just above the 3.2% estimate and November’s 3.1%. The month-over-month (MoM) increase was 0.3% versus estimates of 0.2% and last month’s 0.1%.
However, the shelter index, which is 32% of the CPI, was up 0.5% from November and accounted for over two-thirds of the total annual increase. Everybody knows it is a lagged measure that even the Bureau of Labor Statistics has written about and acknowledged the 4-6 quarter lag. Most importantly, the Fed knows this.
Here is a breakdown of the categories that impacted inflation. The second and third largest drives are rent:
Click for larger graphic h/t Daily Economics
The bulk of all inflation now is rent (the yellow bars):
Click for larger graphic h/t @JosephPolitano
Annual core inflation down-ticked to 3.9% from 4.0% in November, just above the 3.8% expected. MoM core inflation rose 0.3%, in line with expectations and unchanged from November. It was an unsurprising, no-big-deal report. The Fed is likely to continue to pause at its January 31 meeting.
There are two more CPI reports and a couple of nonfarm payrolls releases before the March 20 meeting. The Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan noted some concern about markets getting ahead of the Fed on rate cut expectations: “We can’t count on sustaining price stability if we don’t maintain sufficiently restrictive financial conditions.” As I’ve been saying, High (but not higher) for Longer. It’s The Pause That Refreshes.
So why did the stock market sell off sharply in the morning? Because the first traders are computers and AI bots that “read” the headline and then short any downside surprise or buy any upside surprise. Then the daytraders pile on, followed by retail bagholders who sell to the computers at the bottom, just before the market turns up. Being able to ignore this noise is your superpower.
The January Effect
Last week, stocks snapped a nine-week winning streak as the S&P 500 had its worst start since 2016.
Since 1950, when the S&P 500 has logged gains over the first five trading days of the year, it had an average return of 14.2% for the whole year. When it was down over the first five days, it recorded an average return of 0.3% for the full year. According to Deutsche Bank: “When the S&P 500 is down at various points in January, the full-year performance tends to notably underperform the long-term average. When up, it notably outperforms.”
Click for larger graphic h/t The Market Ear
Market Outlook
The S&P 500 added 2.0% since last Thursday in spite of a strong payrolls number and above-consensus inflation. Could we be entering a time when good news is good news instead of good news equals Fed increases? The Index is up 0.2% year-to-date. The Nasdaq Composite gained 3.2% but is down 0.3% for the year. The SPDR S&P Biotech Exchange-Traded Fund (XBI) climbed 1.1% and just witnessed the best two-month stretch EVER for the sector. It has seen eight consecutive weeks of gains, up +14% in November and +18% more in December, or 39% from the October lows. It is up 1.3% year-to-date. The small-cap Russell 2000 dropped 0.1% and still is underperforming, down 3.5% in 2024.
The fractal dimension kicked back into trend mode, so I expect another three or four weeks of upside before the next consolidation. Remember that consolidations can be anything from weeks of churning – a time consolidation – to a sharp move in the opposite direction – a price consolidation.
December quarter earnings releases are about to start. BofA says the strong Bloomberg Economic Surprise Index suggests a strong earnings beat.
Click for larger graphic h/t @dailychartbook
Top 5
Changes this week: None
Near-Term – chronological order
SCYX – ScyNexis – Data releases and resolution of the manufacturing problem
TGTX TG Therapeutics – Rapid recovery from overdone pullback
EQT EQT –natural gas price rebound
USL United States 12 Month Oil Fund, LP – crude should rise quickly
FCX Freeport McMoRan – copper shortage
Long-Term – alphabetical order
EQT EQT – largest US natural gas company
GBTC Grayscale Bitcoin Trust – Bitcoin is headed for $100,000
NVTA Invitae – the winner-take-most of genetic testing
META Meta – a (the?) leader in the metaverse
RKLB Rocket Lab – #2 to SpaceX in space
SCYX ScyNexis –First new antifungal in 20 years
VLD Velo3D – Return manufacturing to the US
Economy
The Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow model estimate of December quarter real GDP growth has down-ticked a bit to +2.2% while the Blue Chip economists are catching up. 2.0% to 2.5% growth will look like a soft landing to the Fed.
Coming Events
All times below are ET, and most presentations and slides are archived on the companies’ websites so you can listen to them.
Monday, January 15
Markets Closed – MLK day
Wednesday, January 17
RKLB – Rocket Lab – Unspec. – Barclays Launchpad: Investing in Space
Friday, January 19
AAPL – Apple – Vision Pro preorders begin
QUIK – QuickLogic – 2:15pm – Needham Growth Conference
Big Tech: The Biotech & Digital Dominators MegaShift
There are at least four ways to make money in the stocks of these large, growing, dominant companies. You can:
* * Buy a stock and hold it
* * Buy a stock and write a call option against it
* * With a Level IV options account, write an out-of-the-money put option
* * With a Level IV options account, write an out-of-the-money put option and use part of the premium to buy an out-of-the-money call option
Apple (AAPL – $185.59) will announce earnings after the close on February 1. It’s going to be a difficult quarter, so the stock probably will sell off early on February 2. But that’s the day they launch the Vision Pro mixed reality headset, the next major Apple product. They may say it sold out in the preorders. So I think our best strategy is to buy the weakness the morning of February 2.
CEO Tim Cook said: “The era of spatial computing has arrived. Apple Vision Pro is the most advanced consumer electronics device ever created. Its revolutionary and magical user interface will redefine how we connect, create, and explore.”
He’s right. It comes with visionOS, the world’s first spatial operating system, and a brand-new three-dimensional user interface and input system controlled entirely by a user’s eyes, hands, and voice. It has an ultra-high-resolution display system that comes with 23 million pixels across two displays, and custom Apple silicon in a dual-chip design.
Concerns over iPhone sales have pushed the percentage of bullish analysts’ recommendations on $AAPL to a 3-year low.
Click for larger graphic h/t @dailychartbook
This week, Redburn (who?) cut their rating from Buy to Neutral, although they kept their $200 target price. They said there is “little room for upside” over the next few years, although they expect iPhone to start growing again in 2024. AAPL is a Buy on February 2 for the Vision Pro rollout.
Corning (GLW – $60.74) was my conservative recommendation in the 2024 Top Picks Report from MoneyShow. It’s free, CLICK HERE.
Unfortunately, they turned down my #1 speculative pick, ScyNexis, as too small and too racy. I told editor Mike Larson ( good guy) that I expect it to outperform every other pick in their report. GLW is a Buy under $33 for the 5G cellular buildout, followed by the smartphone upgrade to use 5G services. My target is $60 in 2025 .
Gilead Sciences (GILD – $85.39) presented at the big JPMorgan Healthcare Conference in San Francisco this week (SLIDES HERE and TRANSCRIPT HERE). It was the standard presentation as CEO Dan O’Day said: “We more than doubled the portfolio, as you’ll see and importantly, this becomes a very catalyst-rich year for us. I may repeat this a couple of times, but we have close to two dozen clinical trials reading out this year, of which as many as five or more could be Phase 3 readouts.”
He has dramatically expanded the pipeline and is building a very large oncology business.
Click for larger graphic
With lots of catalysts coming this year.
Click for larger graphic
And many more in the future…
Click for larger graphic
Oncology revenues grew 40% in 2023 to over a $3 billion run rate. They have eight approved indications and approvals in 50 countries. That division now employs over 6,000 people.
There’s also a lot coming in their HIV business, a disease they dominate. Over one million people today manage their HIV with Biktarvy and it’s driving sales that are annualizing around $12 billion. They have over a 47% US market share with Biktarvy alone, and 57% for new starts.
Click for larger graphic
GILD is a Long-Term Buy under $80 for a first target of $120.
Meta Platforms (META – $369.67) introduced new protections to give teens more age-appropriate experiences on their apps. They are hiding more types of content for teens on Instagram and Facebook, in line with expert guidance, automatically placing all teens into the most restrictive content control settings on Instagram and Facebook, and restricting additional terms in Search on Instagram.
This clearly is done to pacify regulators who are totally out of touch with how teens live today. I’m more concerned with how Zuckerberg responds to Apple’s Vision Pro. Meta Quest 3 is 10% of the cost of Vision Pro and an excellent augmented reality headset…but it’s not spatial computing. And Zuck knows it. META is a Buy under $150 for a $400 target in 2024.
Small Tech
Enovix (ENVX – $11.38) was named a CES 2024 Innovation Awards Honoree for its pioneering BrakeFlow safety technology. CEO Dr. Raj Talluri did an interview with Nasdaq TradeTalks live from the floor of CES.
The company announced a very interesting collaboration with Group14 Technologies, a leading manufacturer and supplier of active silicon battery material, to develop a silicon battery using Group14’s silicon-carbon composite for 100% of the anode material within Enovix’s battery architecture. They also will explore new ways to advance the performance and efficiency of lithium-ion silicon batteries. ENVX is a Buy up to $20 for a 4-year hold to $100+ as their BrakeFlow lithium-ion battery takes market share.
Primary Risk: A new competitor invents a better battery.
I previously told you that Rocket Lab USA (RKLB – $5.16) won a US government contract worth $515 million to design, manufacture, deliver, and operate 18 space vehicles. Work under the agreement began immediately with the delivery of the space vehicles for launch slated for 2027, operation of the satellites through 2030, and an option to operate the satellites through 2033.
This week they had a webinar to discuss the contract (AUDIO HERE and SLIDES HERE). The customer is the Space Development Agency (SDA) to design and build 18 Tranche 2 Transport Layer-Beta Data Transport Satellites. Rocket Lab is the prime contractor, leading the design, development, production, testing, and operation of the satellites, including procurement and integration of the payload subsystems.
The SDA is procuring satellites to build out a proliferated constellation in low-earth orbit to deliver space-based capabilities to a number of users.
Click for larger graphic
All 18 satellites will integrate subsystems and components built in-house by Rocket Lab, including solar panels, structures, star trackers, reaction wheels, radio, flight software, avionics, and launch dispensers. This was a BIG transformational win.
Rocket Lab also announced that it has set the launch window for its first mission of 2024 at no earlier than January 18 from Launch Complex 1 in New Zealand. The mission will deploy four Space Situational Awareness (SSA) satellites for Spire Global’s customer NorthStar Earth & Space.
In the September quarter, SpaceX launched 519 spacecraft across 26 launches, totaling roughly 381,278 kilograms of spacecraft upmass, the most of any launch provider. China Aerospace was second. Galactic Energy, a private Chinese company was third. ExPace, a state-owned Chinese company, was fourth and Rocket Lab was fifth.
Click for larger graphic h/t @BryceSpaceTech
RKLB is a Buy up to $13 for my $30+ target as low earth orbit satellites and space exploration grow.
Primary Risk: A new competitor emerges.
Biotech MegaShift: The $20-For-$1 Stocks
Say you put $2,000 into a stock that goes from 50¢ a share to $10. The $2,000 turns into $40,000. Then you put the $40,000 into another stock that goes from 50¢ to $10. That turns the $40,000 into $800,000. You did it with two stocks and never risked going negative more than $2,000. (Not that you won’t be mad at me if the first one works and then the second one doesn’t, taking your $40,000 to Money Heaven.)
If you can afford it – and it would not be too big a position in your portfolio – putting $2,000 into each of these speculative biotechs might be a good way to start. Buying these out-of-favor, fallen, or forgotten companies that can get important products through the FDA at very low market capitalizations seems like a good strategy to me.
Risks
Development-stage biotechs are subject to investor sentiment swings from wildly optimistic to excessively pessimistic – mostly the latter recently. After the Primary Risk for each company, I’ve added the clinical stage of their lead product, the probable time of their first FDA approval, and the probable time of their next financing.
As always, you need to think about an appropriate position size. You could buy a full position upfront and then just hold on, or buy some upfront and leave room to add more on the inevitable financings, transient clinical trial setbacks, and the like.
Akebia Therapeutics (AKBA- $1.55) hired a Chief Commercial Officer to get ready for the vadadustat launch. He was President of Eurofins Transplant Genomics and before that Chief Commercial Officer of AMAG Pharmaceuticals. He started his career at at Sanofi in its specialty care business and oversaw operations of its renal business unit. Buy AKBA up to $2 for the vadadustat launches in the EU, UK, and (after FDA approval in March 2024) the US.
Primary Risk: Vadadustat not approved in the US.
Clinical stage of lead product: Vadadustat PDUFA date 3/27/24
Probable time of next FDA approval: March 27, 2024; TDAPA in October
Probable time of next financing: Late 2024 or never
Compass Pathways (CMPS – $8.56) entered a three-year research collaboration agreement with Greenbrook TMS (GBNH) to explore delivery models for COMP360 after FDA approval. The first phase of the collaboration will be research into the delivery of COMP360 at Greenbrook TMS’s current network of treatment centers, working with their patient populations, which include people suffering with treatment-resistant depression (TRD) and other mental health conditions. CMPS is a Buy under $20 for a very long-term hold to a 10x.
Primary Risk: Their drugs fail in the clinic.
Clinical stage of lead product: Phase 3
Probable time of first FDA approval: 2025
Probable time of next financing: Late 2025
Inovio (INO – $0.89) jumped again after they announced a clinical collaboration with Coherus BioSciences (CHRS) to evaluate the combination of INO-3112 and Loqtorzi as a potential treatment for patients with locoregionally advanced, high-risk, HPV16/18 positive oropharyngeal squamous cell carcinoma (OPSCC), a type of head and neck cancer that occurs in the base of the tongue, tonsils and/or soft palate and is commonly known as throat cancer.
OPSCC is typically causally related to high-risk subtypes of human papillomavirus (HPV), but some cases are carcinogen-driven due to tobacco and/or alcohol use. HPV-positive OPSCC is rapidly increasing in incidence among patients in high-income countries and has surpassed cervical cancer as the most common HPV-related cancer diagnosed in the United States, with nearly 20,000 new cases each year. HPV is thought to cause 70%-80% of all oropharyngeal cancers diagnosed in the United States.
Coherus will provide Loqtorzi for a Phase 3 trial to be conducted by INOVIO. Loqtorzi is a PD-1 inhibitor recently approved by the FDA for the treatment of recurrent locally advanced/metastatic nasopharyngeal carcinoma.
Dr. Glenn Hanna, Director of the Center for Cancer Therapeutic Innovation at Dana Farber Cancer Institute, Assistant Professor of Medicine at Harvard Medical School. and principal investigator for the planned trial said: “Existing trial data highlights the strong rationale for and potential benefit of combining INO-3112 with a PD-1 inhibitor to generate tumor-specific T cells in HPV-related head and neck cancer.”
INO is a Buy under $7 for a very long-term hold.
Primary Risk: Their drugs fail in the clinic.
Clinical stage of lead product: Phase 3
Probable time of first FDA approval: 2025
Probable time of next financing: 2025
Medicenna (MDNAF – $0.31) started enrollment in the combination arm of their Phase 1/2 ABILITY trial evaluating MDNA11, their interleukin-2 super-agonist, with Merck’s Keytruda. The combination portion of the study is being conducted as part of the previously announced Clinical Trial Supply and Collaboration Agreement between Medicenna and Merck. Buy MDNAF under $3 for a first target of $20, then maybe $40.
Primary Risk: Their drugs fail in the clinic.
Clinical stage of lead product: Entering Phase 3
Probable time of first FDA approval: 2024
Probable time of next financing: March 2024
ScyNexis (SCYX – $2.00) published a new Investor Presentation. The total value of the GSK deal was revised down from $593 million plus royalties to $448 million plus royalties. $145 million is quite a hit for a supplier’s mistake, but it’s still a huge positive deal for SCYX.
Click for larger graphic
Enrollment is completed in the FURI, CARES, SCYNERGIA, VANQUISH, and NATURE trials, with reports on all coming before June 30. The MARIO trial remains on clinical hold until the manufacturing issue is fixed, probably in the next six months.
They are planning a Phase 1 trial of their wholly-owned second-generation fungerp, SCY-247, this year. They expect the FDA to give it Qualified Infectious Disease Product, Orphan Drug, and Fast Track designation for 10 years of regulatory exclusivity.
Click for larger graphic
The company had $105 million in cash at the end of September, enough to carry them for at least two years. I don’t think they’ll ever need to raise money again. Buy SCYX under $2.50 for a first target price of $20 after ibrexafungerp is approved for hospital use and a buyout at $50.
Primary Risk: Ibrexafungerp fails to sell.
Clinical stage of lead product: Approved
Probable time of next FDA approval: 2024
Probable time of next financing: Never
TG Therapeutics (TGTX – $17.22) also presented at the JPMorgan Healthcare Conference (SLIDES HERE). They announced preliminary US Briumvi fourth quarter sales of $40 million, clobbering the $35.7 million estimate and bringing them in at $89 million for 2023. The 2023 consensus when Briumvi launched was $67 million. Their preliminary yearend 2023 cash position was approximately $215 million,
They also expect March quarter revenues of $41 to $46 million and $220 to $260 million for the full year. Their full year 2024 target operating expense are approximately $250 million. The stock sold off because analysts expected $49.1 million in March quarter sales.
Plus, they expect a European launch shortly:
Click for larger graphic
Buy TGTX under $12 for a target price in a buyout of $30 or more.
Primary Risk:Briumvi, the MS drug, fails to sell.
Clinical stage of lead product: Approved
Probable time of next FDA approval: NM
Probable time of next financing: Never
Inflation MegaShift
Gold ($2,033.00) is holding up well. But the fractal dimension looks like it wants to slip back into consolidation, suggesting the brief trend indicator was a false signal. We shall see.
Miners & Related
Sandstorm Gold (SAND – $4.79) sold approximately 23,300 attributable gold equivalent ounces in the December quarter for $44.5 million. Their preliminary cost of sales, excluding depletion, was $4.9 million, resulting in cash operating margins of approximately $1,737 per attributable gold equivalent ounce.
Cofounder David Awram talked to Kitco:
SAND is a Buy under $10 for a $25 target.
Primary Risk: Prices of precious metals fall due to US dollar strength.
Cryptocurrencies
Cryptocurrencies are a diversifying asset that offer a unique opportunity to make (or lose!) a lot of money quickly. You can easily buy bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies at Coinbase, Block, or Robinhood.
Bitcoin (BTC-USD on Yahoo – $46,859.24) moved up after the SEC finally approved spot exchange-traded funds. SEC Chairman Gary Gensler is a sore loser:
Click for larger graphic h/t @nic__carter
The iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) passed $1 billion in volume today with the new ETFs hitting $4.3 billion (or $2.2 billion not counting GBTC, which isn’t “new”). It also was a good sign to see four issuers over $100 million. It was easily the biggest Day One splash in ETF history.
Click for larger graphic h/t @EricBalchunas
There are only 1.8 million bitcoin freely available to trade on exchanges and hundreds of millions of dollars looking to get in.
Click for larger graphic
BTC-USD, ETH-USD, GBTC, and ETHE are Strong Buys.
Primary Risk: Bitcoin falls due to over-regulation or is surpassed by another cryptocurrency.
Grayscale Bitcoin Trust ETF (GBTC- $40.69) added “ETF” to their name but only cut the expense ratio from 2.00% to 1.50%. That’s way too high for an exchange-traded fund. They are the largest ETF with over $28 billion in assets, and they will benefit as bitcoin rises. But I’m going to look for the best ETF to switch into. For now, GBTC is a Buy.
Primary Risk: Bitcoin falls due to over-regulation or is surpassed by another cryptocurrency.
Commodities
Oil – $72.58
Oil had a flattish week as worries about higher than expected supply during a possible global recession were offset by geopolitical worries. Speculators are all-in on lower prices as net non-commercials approach their lowest holdings in modern times.
Click for larger graphic h/t The Market Ear
HFI Research wrote: “Looking at the rest of OPEC+, Saudis led the way by plummeting crude exports down to ~5.671 million b/d. For the rest of Q1, we see an average of ~5.8 million b/d. If the Saudis export at this level, it would represent a decrease of ~1.2 million b/d y-o-y.
“While the US did meaningfully increase crude exports in 2023, it would not be able to increase to the extent of the Saudi cut. As a result, this cut will eat right into global oil balances.
“In addition, we expect US oil production to decline in Q1 2024. This will help aid US crude storage balances, which are the most visible to the rest of the world.”
The US has been producing more oil from existing wells than I expected due to advances in fracking technology, but between the Federal lease sale cancellations and ESG pressure on banks, not many new wells are being drilled. Fracked well production collapses after 12 to 18 months, so declining US production lies ahead, starting this year. That should keep the Saudis from lowering the boom on prices to kill US production.
India has 1.41 billion citizens and 75% don’t have a car. They spent $120 billion in 2023 on roads, airports, bridges, railways. A young guy with a car can get a date. Their oil demand will get oil to $100 this year. Then on to $300 in 2026.
The July 2026 Crude Oil Futures (CLN26.NYM – $65.13) are a Buy under $70 for a $200+ target. Only buy futures for all cash; do not use margin.
The United States 12 Month Oil Fund, LP (USL – $35.50) is a Buy under $40 for a $100+ target.
EQT (EQT – $37.05) will benefit as natural gas prices rise due to the hurricane-force blizzard hitting the northeast next week.
Click for larger graphic h/t @CelsiusEnergyFM
EQT is a buy under $35 for a first target of $70 and a long-term hold for much higher prices.
Primary Risk:Natural gas prices fall.
Energy Fuels (UUUU – $7.12) will benefit as uranium rose $5.70 today to $100.01. There was a good background article on Seeking Alpha: Energy Fuels: A Near-Term Uranium Producer With Rare Earths Ambitions.
UUUU is a buy under $8 for a $30 target.
Primary Risk: Uranium prices fall.
* * * * *
The 2024 Global Risks Report from the World Economic Forum, based on the opinions of 1,500 experts, ranks misinformation and disinformation as the #1 societal risk in the next two years. As @NateSilver538 said: “If the experts think that misinformation is a bigger problem than war, then a way bigger problem than misinformation is that the experts are f**king idiots.”
Click for larger graphic h/t @Sander_vdLinden
* * * * *
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Founding Editor
New World Investor
All Recommendations
Priced 1/11/24. Check out the complete Portfolio page HERE.
Buys
These are the stocks everyone needs to own because transformative events are happening over the next year or two, and I expect to hold them long-term.
Tech Dominators
Apple Computer (AAPL – $185.59) – Buy under $150 for new iPhones
Corning (GLW – $30.74) – Buy under $33, target price $60
Gilead Sciences (GILD – $85.39) – Buy under $80, target price $120
Meta (META – $369.67) – Buy under $150, target price $400
SoftBank (SFTBY – $22.18) – Buy under $25, target price $50
Small Tech
Enovix (ENVX – $11.38) – Buy under $20; 4-year hold to $100+
First Trust NASDAQ Cybersecurity ETF (CIBR – $54.74) – Buy under $40; 3- to 5-year hold
Fastly (FSLY – $17.57) – Buy under $20; 2- to 5-year hold to $80+
PagerDuty (PD – $25.63) – Buy under $30; 2- to 5-year hold
QuickLogic (QUIK – $13.82) – Buy under $10, target price $40
Rocket Lab (RKLB – $5.16) – Buy under $13, target price $30+
Velo3D (VLD – $0.31) – Buy under $6, target price $50
$20-for-$1 Biotech
Akebia Biotherapeutics (AKBA – $1.55) – Buy under $2, target $20
Aptose Biosciences (APTO – $2.29) – Buy under $10, ultimate target $300
Compass Pathways (CMPS – $8.56) – Buy under $20, hold a long time for a 10x return
Inovio (INO – $0.89) – Buy under $7, hold a long time
Invitae (NVTA – $0.51) – Buy under $10, first target $50, then $100+
Medicenna (MDNAF – $0.31) – Buy under $3, first target $20, then maybe $40
ScyNexis (SCYX – $2.00) – Buy under $3, target price $20, then $50
TG Therapeutics (TGTX – $17.22) – Buy under $12 for buyout at $30+
Inflation
A Short-Sale or REO House – ($415,400) – Hold
Bag of Junk Silver – ($22.92) – hold through silver bull market
Sprott Gold Miners ETF (SGDM – $23.31) – Buy under $28, target price $50
Sprott Junior Gold Miners ETF (SGDJ – $27.46) – Buy under $39, target price $100
Sprott Physical Gold and Silver Trust (CEF – $18.67) – Buy under $18, target price $30
Global X Silver Miners ETF (SIL – $26.28) – Buy under $30, target price $50
Coeur Mining (CDE – $2.66) – Buy under $5, target price $20
First Majestic Mining (AG – $5.31) – Buy under $11, next target price $23
Paramount Gold Nevada (PZG – $0.36) – Buy under $1, first target price $10
Sandstorm Gold (SAND – $4.79) – Buy under $10, target price $25
Sprott Inc. (SII – $31.83) – Buy under $40, target price $70
Cryptocurrencies
Bitcoin (BTC-USD – $46,859.24) – Buy
Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC – $40.69) – Buy
Ethereum (ETH-USD – $2,601.14) – Buy
Grayscale Ethereum Trust (ETHE – $21.88) – Buy
Commodities
Crude Oil Futures – July 2026 (CLN26.NYM – $65.13) – Buy under $70; $200+ target
United States 12 Month Oil Fund, LP (USL – $35.50) – Buy under $40; $100+ target
EQT (EQT – $37.05) – Buy under $35; $70 first target
Energy Fuels (UUUU – $7.12) – Buy under $8; $30 target
Freeport McMoRan (FCX – $41.03) – Buy under $44; $65 target within two years
International & Other Recommendations
EMQQ Emerging Markets Internet & Ecommerce ETF (EMQQ – $30.39) – Buy under $38 for a $66 target in 12 to 18 months
KraneShares Bosera MSCI China A Share Fund (KBA – $19.53) – Buy under $40 for a three- to five-year hold
Morgan Stanley China A-Shares Fund (CAF – $12.34) – Buy under $18 for a three- to five-year hold
KraneShares CSI China Internet ETF (KWEB – $25.63) – Buy under $40 for a double over the next three years
Acreage Holdings (ACRDF – $0.23) – Buy under $2 for the Canopy Growth merger
Mongolia Growth Group (MNGGF – $1.16) – Buy under $1.30; long-term hold
Holds
These are holds but not sells – yet. They could get moved back to one of the buy categories if their prices drop or outlook improves, or they could become sell recommendations in the future.
Arch Therapeutics (ARTH – $5.75) – Hold for buyout
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First. Now to read it.
Yay BTC ETF,finally here!
MM – will AKBA approval March 27th be a catalyst for the stock and whats your projection for a stock price move? Reason why its not a near term Top 5?
yes MM has put it in the top – Hope it pays off – been holding for a long long time.
Lawrence, AKBA is not in MMs top 5, why are you saying that?? What is your stock price projection on approval?
The big “approval” is TDAPA listing 6 months after FDA approval. It’s automatic. So, a little pop on March 27 approval and then a big move in the December quarter.
Repost of my comments yesterday about why TGTX sold off.
I am mainly concerned about diversion of attention to the car T project of Precision. I am not clear on whether Precision or TGTX spends the huge money needed for development of that–likely TGTX. That money is best spent on more aggressive commercialization of Briumvi. 2023 growth in sales was fabulous, from Q2 of $15MM, Q3 of $25MM, now Q4 rough data of $40MM. If that 60% sequential growth continues, the stock will be way over $100 in 1-2 years. But 2024 estimates total $260MM, about 20% sequential growth, still excellent, although projecting a stock price of only $30 or so. So the mere 5% growth in Q1 would be a disappointment, although Weiss is smart to be conservative. If Weiss strives to make Briumvi the leading CD20 drug in sales, he better get more marketing going. So the market is disappointed on the distraction from Precision.
I listened to the CC late PM, and didn’t like Weiss’ flippant comment that he flunked HS biology. He also admitted that the car T project is a gamble. STUPID. Briumvi will be one of the few blockbuster drugs, and he got lucky. Why is he taking this gamble now? For his EGO at being the Amazon of autoimmune diseases. FAT CHANCE. He is likely to blow it.
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JGMD
Reply to JGMD
January 11, 2024 10:04 pm
It seems like TGTX is funding carT for Precision, about $300 million, in milestone stages. If carT is a failure, subtract $300 million from TGTX’s market cap, or about $2/sh. Before the excited anticipation of the JPM CC, the stock was about $18, so equivalent value with Precision expenses would be $16. The shorts are back with their 2nd wave to the low teens. I got a nice gift from them by buying some more on Oct 31 at $7.25. Hopefully I’ll get some more at $11-12.
Some TGTX bulls are buying Precision (DTIL), but the latter has probably zoomed since the CC. If carT works, having TGTX gives exposure to Precision. Maybe Weiss wants to consider TGTX as a mutual fund of small promising companies, LOL.
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Informative info from Stocktwits on TGTX. A buyer wants to see more than a one trick pony. Weiss will go for Briumvi trials for other autoimmune diseases, and carT as another modality for B cell depletion. For the stock price, bad in the short/medium term as TGTX spends lots of money for development. Good in the long term as TGTX offers several modes of treatment for different AA diseases. SubQ Briumvi may be worthwhile as another option.
Stocktwits post of good article in Neurology.org March 2023 article with first author Sasha Gupta about carT. These posts disappear in half a day, so I am posting discussion.
Although successes have been achieved in the treatment of relapsing MS, advances in progressive MS have been modest.4,5 Our understanding suggests that progressive MS may in part result from ongoing CNS damage associated with meningeal ectopic lymphoid follicles. The ability of CAR-T cells to penetrate the CNS more readily may offer a therapeutic benefit over existing mAb therapies that only deplete B cells in the periphery.6,7,18 In this study, we found that anti-CD19 CAR-T cells thoroughly depleted B cells in the periphery and within the CNS. The depth of CNS B-cell depletion with anti-CD19 CAR-T cells was sustained beyond that observed by anti-CD20 mAb treatment. Furthermore, as anti-CD20 mAb treatment of B-cell–dependent EAE emulates the clinical benefit in patients with MS, here we observed clinical improvement with anti-CD19 CAR-T cell treatment.
A recent study evaluated the efficacy of anti-CD19 CAR-T cells in spontaneous EAE,20 a model that previously showed lack of disease protection with anti-CD20 mAb therapy.36In this study, although treatment with anti- CD19 CAR-T cells enhanced clearance of meningeal B-cell aggregates, the mice paradoxically had more severe EAE, an observation that we confirmed (data not shown). The authors postulated that the clinical worsening could reflect depletion of CD19+ regulatory IL-10-producing B (B10) cells. Of interest, a previous study demonstrated that constitutive CD19 overexpression on B cells protected mice from EAE and was associated with elevated levels of B10 cells, whereas CD19 deficiency exacerbated EAE.37 However there was another study showing treatment with humanized anti-CD19 mAb ameliorated disease.38 These differences reflect the diverse autoimmune mechanisms that drive tissue pathology in various EAE models and emphasize the vital importance of employing a variety of models when considering the potential of any therapeutic strategy to translate to the human disease.26,27
Although our B-cell–dependent EAE model induced by immunization with the extracellular domain of rhMOG highlighted the efficacy of anti-CD19 CAR-T cell therapy, we were surprised to find that mice treated with control cells also derived clinical benefit despite the fact that their B-cell populations returned to WT levels after the Cy pretreatment. Thus, B-cell depletion did not clearly account for the observed clinical benefit. In clinical care, Cy is used as a standard pretreatment for CAR-T cell therapy and is required for CAR-T cell–induced B-cell depletion in the mice. Although Cy alone has been used to treat EAE, the results have been inconsistent.39,40 In our study, Cy treatment alone only delayed the onset of clinical disease. Thus, Cy does not account for the benefit observed in either of our improved EAE groups. Furthermore, anti-CD19 CAR-T cells without pretreatment or Cy with untransduced activated cells were not found to be beneficial, suggesting a protective effect from the combination of transduced activated cells with Cy pretreatment.
Studies have demonstrated that Foxp3+ Treg cells can protect against EAE, whereas Treg deficiency exacerbates disease.41–43 We considered the possibility that increased Treg cell populations in the peripheral blood and CNS in the adoptively transferred treatment mice might have induced an immune regulatory environment that ameliorated EAE but did not find statistically significant differences in the Treg populations between treatment groups. Furthermore, their transcriptional profiles were not significantly different. Lilrb4 expression, however, was noted to be elevated in both anti-CD19 CAR-T cells and control cells when compared with untransduced activated cells. Lilrb4 has been identified to play a role in tumor microenvironment immune suppression, and its blockade results in increased T-cell effector activity.31,32 One could postulate that increased Lilrb4 expression promotes immunomodulation that results in less severe disease but occurs at a threshold undetectable by our assays of the endogenous response. We also considered if the overrepresentation of nonspecific CD8+ T cells affected the type of T cells that repopulated after Cy pretreatment.44,45 Many studies have investigated bystander CD4+ and CD8+ T cell activity that seem to promote an immune response.46–49 However, in this case, the bystander cells for both anti-CD19 CAR-T (∼50% of the injected cells) and control cells were rested for 2 weeks before EAE immunization. It is possible that earlier IL-2 secretion could have promoted Treg differentiation from effector cells.43,48 Unfortunately, we were unable to collect sufficient donor T cells in recipient mice to evaluate their phenotype after in vivo treatment.
This study has limitations. A comprehensive characterization of the adaptive immune system, including B regulatory cells, was not performed but will be important in future work. A more complete understanding of changes in cytokine profiles might also help clarify the mechanisms responsible for differential treatment effects. Future work should consider if an anti-CD20 CAR-T cell treatment strategy might preserve the CD19+ B10 cell compartment and provide more targeted B-cell depletion.38,50 Finally, we studied CAR-T cells in EAE prevention. It will be important to evaluate their use in established clinical disease as we consider translation to MS therapy.
This study demonstrates a benefit of anti-CD19 CAR-T cells in the treatment of a B-cell–dependent model of EAE without any identified systemic toxicity. Although anti-CD20 mAb therapy depleted B cells in the CNS and the periphery in this mouse model, it is known that anti-CD20 mAbs do not penetrate the CNS well in humans,6–8 whereas anti-CD19 CAR-T cells do.18 It is quite encouraging that profound and durable B-cell depletion was achieved by the anti-CD19 CAR-T cell regimen not only as expected in the periphery but also the CNS, reinforcing the concept that anti-CD19 CAR-T cells hold promise for patients with particular autoimmune diseases. While modeling disease is an important first step for evaluating the safety and efficacy of novel therapeutics, the fact that anti-CD19 CAR-T cells are already approved by multiple regulatory agencies and that they recently showed promise for treating another human autoimmune disease, systemic lupus erythematosus,19 argues for consideration of this treatment modality in patients with MS.
GlossaryBMbone marrowCARchimeric antigen receptorCycyclophosphamideDEGdifferentially expressed geneEAEexperimental autoimmune encephalomyelitisGFPgreen fluorescent proteinIPintraperitonealmAbmonoclonal antibodyMHCmajor histocompatibility complexMOGmyelin oligodendrocyte proteinMSVGmouse stem cell virus–based splice-gag vectorUCSFUniversity of California, San Francisco
AcknowledgmentThe authors thank Genentech, Inc for supplying them with murine anti-CD20 mAb. The authors would also like to thank Peggy Ho, PhD and Lawrence Steinman, MD of Stanford University for helpful conversations.
Appendix Authors
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References1.
Wallin MT, Culpepper WJ, Campbell JD, et al. The prevalence of MS in the United States: a population-based estimate using health claims data [published correction appears in Neurology. 2019,93(15):688]. Neurology. 2019,92(10):e1029-e1040.
Go to Citation
CrossrefPubMedGoogle Scholar
2.
Hauser SL, Bar-Or A, Comi G, et al. Ocrelizumab versus interferon beta-1a in relapsing multiple sclerosis. N Engl J Med. 2017,376(3):221-234.
CrossrefPubMedGoogle Scholar3.
Kappos L, Li D, Calabresi PA, et al. Ocrelizumab in relapsing-remitting multiple sclerosis: a phase 2, randomised, placebo-controlled, multicentre trial. Lancet. 2011,378(9805):1779-1787.
CrossrefPubMedGoogle Scholar4.
Hawker K, O’Connor P, Freedman MS, et al. Rituximab in patients with primary progressive multiple sclerosis: results of a randomized double-blind placebo-controlled multicenter trial. Ann Neurol. 2009,66(4):460-471.
CrossrefPubMedGoogle Scholar
My summary–Briumvi will be the leader in relapsing remitting MS, but primary progressive MS may be a problem for B. Long term survival is the problem, so carT may provide a synergistic solution. Weiss is on the right track. TGTX should be accumulated on weakness for an excellent LONG TERM investment. Forget about a buyout in the next 1-2 years, unless Weiss is offered over $100 with continued stellar growth in Briumvi sales.
Volume 10 | Number 2
March 2023
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My view–My summary–Briumvi will be the leader in relapsing remitting MS, but primary progressive MS may be a problem for B. Long term survival is the problem, so carT may provide a synergistic solution. Weiss is on the right track. TGTX should be accumulated on weakness for an excellent LONG TERM investment. Forget about a buyout in the next 1-2 years, unless Weiss is offered over $100 with continued stellar growth in Briumvi sales.
Look at the last article on Rituximab for primary progressive MS. It was the prototype anti CD20, Briumvi is now the best. Ritux didn’t do any better than placebo.
For now Briumvi has a limited indication for only relapsing, remitting MS. The market is huge just for that, but for long term survival, MS will need more than CD20 therapy, So Weiss is looking for long term results. Smart.
Another factor that may impact the timing of TGTX’s acquisition by a larger company is the following provision of TGTX’s Neuraxpharm agreement for Briumvi rights outside of the U.S., Canada and Mexico:
“TG Therapeutics retains an option to buy back all rights under the commercialization agreement for a period of two years in the event of a change in control of TG.Additionally, TG Therapeutics retains an option to buy back all rights under the commercialization agreement for a period of two years (from 8/1/23) in the event of a change in control of TG.” [Note: underlining and agreement date added by me for clarity]
A potential acquirer will likely want/require global rights to Briumvi (not just for North America).
Good point. As I recall, Q3 2023 saw a nice cash infusion to TGTX for Briumvi rights outside NA, which will reduce TGTX total sales. Maybe Weiss feels this extra cash gives him the ability to spend for carT, etc. I’ve changed my mind about Weiss, especially just learning about the opportunity of carT. He probably is less inclined to buy back the Neurax deal so he has more cash to build the drug portfolio. Remember the other TGTX drug failures for oncology, so Weiss seems to want to concentrate on autoimmune diseases now–more than a single drug with just one indication, however great Briumvi may be.
MM?
Hi MM, Congrats to all of us who stayed with GBTC. Why GBTC is trading at 41 when BTC is at 46K? I thought the discount would close as soon as the ETF is approved. Is it expected to close the gap or will the gap gets wider? Please explain the nuances here. Thank you guys.
Grayscale Bitcoin Trust holds has 0.00089426 BTC per GBTC share – the cumulative effect of the annual expense ratio (currently 1.50% p.a., previously 2.00% p.a.) since inception. I would hope that Grayscale drops the management fee further to get it in line with, or at least a lot closer to (~0.25% p.a.), those of the new competing ETFs
See:
Grayscale Bitcoin Trust ETF (GBTC)
Meta: you have a buy recommendation below $150 with a stock price over $350–is this realistic or do you ever adjust as these stocks climb
I am going to raise the buy limit, but I’m expecting the Magnificent 7 to lag for a while.
Velo3D will speak at the Needham Growth Conference on January 18 at 3:00 pm EST
After today’s announcement of a Sapphire sale, it is strange that the stock still plunged. Perhaps the market figures that unless there are announcements, there are no sales.
Mm,would like to get your thoughts on nvta stock price as it keeps drifting lower,I’m assuming this will continue until the earnings come out in February,I’m surprised that the company has not issued any news or anything to help stop the fall of there own stock price?pretty sad isn’t it….thoughts
What stops the fall will be beating expectations. Analysts are expecting a 26¢ loss for December (range -18¢ to -34¢) vs. -34¢ last year. That would be -$1.02 for the year, less than half 2022’s $2.20 loss.
For 2024 they are expecting an 89¢ loss (range -62¢ to -$1.19). I think they can do better than -89¢. Management obviously has the ship headed in the right direction, so it’s now a question of how fast they can get to cash flow neutral.
Hey,tx for your response,not to many people on this forum anymore,I’m assuming it’s because of how these biotechs are killing us, I guess no one feels like talking anymore,I have been around along time,I hope you are correct on nvta and it turns around,I did try to call nvta today to no prevail,I guess since luk is leaving,no one else gives a shit att investor relations
Mm,do you know how many more jobs they got rid of at nvta
Management has the ship in the right direction??? I’m down 88% on this stock. Thankfully a tiny position. My fault but come on, this stock is a goner.
Over the past 5 years one would have done incredibly better with actual Amazon than the “Amazon of genetic testing.”
Also down 88% to big of a position to sell at this point,I am a f..king dope for believing that this company even exist
22%of the shares are short , if the earnings are better than expected stock could pop,but until earnings come out ,we are at the mercy of analysts like piper Sandler who currently have a 30 cent price target for nvta,basically we’re screwed
Chris, What is your take on price action of ACXP today?
I put in a buy order yesterday AM at $3.50, but it zoomed moments later. No news, so I knew it would pull back. $4.00 at today’s close, down from $4.50. I’ll probably get my $3.50 soon, or thereabouts. This stock has crazy up and down moves. My average cost from 2 years ago is $4.44.
Let’s hear from Chris.
New World Investor for 1.18.24 is posted.