Dear New World Investor:
This morning’s first estimate of September quarter real Gross Domestic Product growth was +4.9%.
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It shocked Wall Street, which was looking for +4.5%, and the Blue Chip economists at +3.5%, but not you, I hope. The final GDPNow reading from the Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow model was +5.4%, and as you know they have been forecasting a very strong quarter for months.
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The S&P 500 fell 1.2% today as the “Fed has to increase” bears overcame the “Wow, way stronger economy than expected” bulls I talked about last week.
They’re both wrong. The Fed doesn’t have to increase because the whole yield curve has de-inverted. The front end of the curve remains anchored by expectations that the Fed is done or nearly done, while the Treasury 10-year yield rose to 5% for the first time since 2007. Bond yields are doing the Fed’s work for it right now and Powell knows it.
Bill Ackman covering his bond short may be the top in yields, but the important metric to watch is how fast and how far yields fall. I think they’ll come down very slowly, but parabolic moves do tend to have furious price action when they reverse. Note the negative divergence in the relative strength index (RSI).
Click for larger graphic h/t The Market Ear
The broad money supply has been falling for months. Inflation is following. The Fed can stay paused, but there’s a big demand for long-term debt to replace maturing paper, and that will cushion the decline in long yields.
Click for larger graphic h/t @WinfieldSmart
Most of the sell-side banks and other Fed tip-sheets continue to think the FOMC has made its last rate increase for the current cycle. A handful anticipate a rate hike in December or early next year.
Click for larger graphic h/t @NickTimiraos
Market Outlook
The S&P 500 lost 3.3% since last Thursday and closed today at its lowest level since May. Only 164 members of the 500 are trading above their 200-day moving average.
Click for larger graphic h/t @WinfieldSmart
The Index is up 7.8% year-to-date. The Nasdaq Composite was hit hard, losing 4.5%, but still is up 20.3% for the year. The small-cap Russell 2000 dropped 2.7% and is down 5.9% in 2023 – an annus horribilis for small-caps, particularly small-cap biotech, as you have noticed.
Where will the December quarter buyers come from? Hedge funds have increased their short stock exposure to the highest level of the year. This is a huge, often rapid, source of buying power to push the market higher.
Click for larger graphic h/t @WinfieldSmart
And the trend-following Commodity Trading Advisers are overwhelming short both Global and US stocks. These folks turn on a dime, cover and go long all at once. This could get pretty exciting.
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The fractal dimension turned down this week, but it would take three or four weeks of a down market to signal a new downtrend by falling through the 55 level. I doubt that will happen.
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Top 5
Changes this week: None
Near-Term – chronological order
TGTX TG Therapeutics – Rapid recovery from overdone pullback
EQT EQT –natural gas price rebound
USL United States 12 Month Oil Fund, LP – crude should rise quickly
FCX Freeport McMoRan – copper shortage this fall
SFTBY SoftBank – for ARM IPO valuation
AKBA Akebia – Vadadustat approval March 19, 2024
VLD Velo3D – Rapid revenue growth; low market cap
Long-Term – alphabetical order
EQT EQT – largest US natural gas company
GBTC Grayscale Bitcoin Trust – Bitcoin is headed for $100,000
NVTA Invitae – the winner-take-most of genetic testing
META Meta – a (the?) leader in the metaverse
RKLB Rocket Lab – #2 to SpaceX in space
SCYX ScyNexis –First new antifungal in 20 years
VLD Velo3D – Return manufacturing to the US
Virus Update – Why I’m Not Worried
In the US, daily cases have fallen with the seven-day moving average down to 5,603.
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Daily deaths are down to just 25, nationwide.
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With only 2% of the population getting the latest booster shot of a “vaccine” that does not prevent you from getting or spreading the disease, the virus is no longer of general investment interest. I still expect WHO to pick Inovio’s INO-4800 as the future booster of choice.
Coming Events
All times below are ET, and most presentations and slides are archived on the companies’ websites so you can listen to them.
Friday, October 27
Personal Consumption Expenditures Index – 8:30am
Monday, October 30
ACRDF – Acreage Holdings – Through 10/31 – Canexec: The Global Cannabis Executive Summit
APTO – Aptose Therapeutics – 8:30am – Clinical Update from European School of Haematology (ESH) conference
AAPL – Apple – 8:00pm – “Scary fast” product introduction
Tuesday, October 31
Happy Halloween!
Wednesday, November 1
AG – First Majestic – Through 11/4 – New Orleans Investment Conference
Fed Meeting – 2:00pm press release; 2:30pm press conference
FSLY – Fastly – 4:30pm – Earnings conference call
Thursday, November 2
AAPL – Apple – 5:00pm – Earnings conference call
Friday, November 3
October payrolls – 8:30am
Big Tech: The Biotech & Digital Dominators MegaShift
There are at least four ways to make money in the stocks of these large, growing, dominant companies. You can:
* * Buy a stock and hold it
* * Buy a stock and write a call option against it
* * With a Level IV options account, write an out-of-the-money put option
* * With a Level IV options account, write an out-of-the-money put option and use part of the premium to buy an out-of-the-money call option
Apple (AAPL – $166.89) will have a “Scary fast” product introduction next Monday evening. I expect new Mac computers and new versions of the MacBook Pro. Then after the close on Thursday they’ll announce September fourth-quarter results. The consensus expects revenues to fall 6.6% from last year to $84.18 billion with flattish earnings of $1.31 a share. For some reason, Seeking Alpha thinks the consensus is at $89.31 billion and $1.39 per share, so they’ll probably headline a “miss.”
Perhaps that will finally get the stock under my $150 buy limit. Deutsche Bank just cut their target price from $210 to $200 because “Initial iPhone 15 sell-through has been mixed and increased competition in China could lead to lower iPhone sales in the region.” UBS, which has a neutral rating on the stock and a $190 target, chimed in with “Wait times for the base and Plus models are largely nonexistent, essentially in-line with last year across the U.S., China, Europe and Japan after materially elevated wait times immediately post launch. The deterioration in wait times at the low end that are now consistent with last year suggests demand continues to wane with only the Pro Max showing any resiliency.”
No mention of the upcoming Vision Pro mixed-reality headset that creates a new computing platform – Spatial Computing. It will be as big as the smartphone. Nor of price increases, an underappreciated upside lever Apple can pull on both products and services going forward, Yesterday, they announced price increases for multiple subscription services.
Apple increased the price of Apple TV+ to $9.99 a month from $6.99. It hiked the price of its Apple Arcade video game service to $6.99 a month from $4.99. And it boosted the price of Apple News+ to $12.99 a month from $9.99. AAPL is a Buy under $150 for new iPhone rollouts and augmented/virtual reality products.
Corning (GLW – $26.93) reported September quarter revenues of $3.5 billion with pro forma earnings of 45¢ per share. That was essentially right on the consensus for $3/55 billion and 47¢.
On the conference call (INFOGRAPHIC HERE and TRANSCRIPT HERE), they guided for $3.25 billion in core sales, below the $3.59 billion consensus, with earnings of 37¢ to 42¢, below the 50¢ consensus.
CEO Wendell Weeks said: “Our third-quarter results show continued progress on our priorities to improve profitability and cash flow, even with weak demand across our markets. We increased third-quarter core gross margin to 37%, a 340 basis-point improvement from the fourth quarter of 2022. We grew free cash flow to $466 million.
“We also extended our market leadership and executed on ‘More Corning’ content opportunities. For example, we once again worked with Apple to advance the state of the art for smartphones, delivering durable color-infused glass – a first for any smartphone – for the iPhone 15 and iPhone 15 Plus.
“Our markets continue to reflect demand below trend lines, but our sales will recover, and we will return to growth. In the meantime, we will continue to improve our profitability and cash flow, even in this current muted sales environment. As a result, as our markets recover to trend, we can serve them with our existing capacity and capabilities on an improved price and cost platform. This will allow us to grow profitability faster than sales and generate significant incremental cash flow.”
GLW is a Buy under $33 for the 5G cellular buildout, followed by the smartphone upgrade to use 5G services. My target is $60 in 2024.
Gilead Sciences (GILD – $78.50) presented new data at the 19th European AIDS Conference supporting Sunlenca (lenacapavir) as an important treatment option for adults with multi-drug resistant HIV who have an extensive treatment history. The latest results include two-year data from the Phase 2/3 CAPELLA trial, which demonstrate that resistance to Sunlenca occurred in a minority of participants and only among those with inadequate adherence to their optimized background regimen (OBR) or without fully active antiretrovirals as part of their OBR. GILD is a Long-Term Buy under $80 for a first target of $120.
Meta Platforms (META – $288.35) reported a very strong “double beat” quarter, with revenues up 23.2% from last year to $34.15 billion, well ahead of the $33.45 billion consensus estimate. Earnings per share of $4.39 clobbered the $3.64 consensus.
Family daily active people (DAP) increased 7% year-over-year to 3.14 billion on average for September 2023. Family monthly active people (MAP) also increased 7% year-over-year, in this case to 3.96 billion.
Facebook daily active users (DAUs) were 2.09 billion, up 5% year-over-year. Facebook monthly active users (MAUs)s were 3.05 billion,up 3% year-over-year.
Ad impressions across the family of apps increased by a whopping 31% year-over-year in spite of the Apple privacy changes, while the average price per ad decreased by 6% year-over-year due to the Apple privacy changes.
Zuckerberg continues to cut costs, with R&D at the lowest level since the June 2022 quarter: Headcount was down 24% year-over-year to 66,185 at the end of of September.
Click for larger graphic h/t SeekingAlpha
On the conference call (SLIDES HERE and TRANSCRIPT HERE), Zuckerberg said: “There continues to be a ton of innovation in AI, and we used [our] Connect [Conference] to … start launching a lot of the new consumer AI experiences that we expect to become meaningful parts of all of our apps and our business over the coming years. The experiences that we started rolling out of Connect are going to transform the way that people use all our services, feeds, messaging, hardware, advertising, business messaging, interacting with creators and more. It’s going to take time to tune all these experiences, before hundred of millions or billions of people are going to use them. And I expect that dialing in these products and the vision that we articulated at Connect is going to be our theme for much of the next year.”
That flows through to resource allocation as well, he emphasized: “In terms of investment priorities, AI will be our biggest investment area in 2024 both in engineering and compute resources, but I want to avoid allocating a lot of new headcount. So we’re going to continue de-prioritizing a number of non-AI projects across the company to shift people toward working on AI instead.”
Facebook’s average revenue per user was $56,11 in the US and Canada, but only $19.04 in Europe and $5.12 in Asia-Pacific. There’s no reason the latter two can’t get much closer to North America.
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They guided the December quarter to revenues between $36.5 billion and $40 billion, above the consensus for $36.64 billion. They finished the quarter with $61.12 billion in cash, after buying back $3.7 billion of stock. They still have $37.22 billion for their stock buyback program.
I will raise the buy limit on META soon, probably to the $225-$250 area. It is a must-own for the metaverse, but Wall Street won’t realize that for a couple of years. META is a Buy under $150 for a $400 target in 2024.
Small Tech
Enovix (ENVX – $8.99) posted the next video in their “Journey to Scale” series: Enovix material-agnostic architecture with Jonathan Doan, VP: R&D.
ENVX is a Buy up to $20 for a 4-year hold to $100+ as their BrakeFlow lithium-ion battery takes market share.
Primary Risk: A new competitor invents a better battery.
Rocket Lab USA (RKLB – $4.28) received authorization from the Federal Aviation Administration to resume Electron launches from Launch Complex 1. A full review of the in-flight anomaly on September 19 during its 41st Electron launch is expected to be completed in the coming weeks, with a return to flight later this quarter with corrective measures in place. That’s good news!
The two spacecraft they are building for NASA’s Escape and Plasma Acceleration and Dynamics Explorers (ESCAPADE) mission have entered the system integration phase in preparation for a planned launch in 2024. The ESCAPADE mission is a twin-spacecraft science mission that will fly roughly 230 million miles to orbit Mars to investigate the structure, composition, variability, and dynamics of Mars’ unique hybrid magnetosphere. The mission will explore how the solar wind strips atmosphere away from Mars to better understand how its climate has changed over time.
Today, Cantor Fitzgerald initiated coverage with an Overweight rating and a $6 target price. They wrote: “We believe RKLB benefits from a proven and successful launch track record, a diversified and recurring customer base, and multiple launch complexes with vertical integration.”
While Rocket Lab is targeting 15 launches in 2023 and 20 launches for 2024, Cantor said it is conservatively modeling 13 launches for 2023 and 18 for 2024. At about $7.5 million per launch, Cantor further expects the launches to translate into revenues of $94.6 million for 2023 and $135 million for 2024. RKLB is a Buy up to $13 for my $30+ target as low earth orbit satellites and space exploration grow.
Primary Risk: A new competitor emerges.
Velo3D‘s (VLD – $1.32) business is holding up well relative to most additive manufacturing peers, probably a result of the their large exposure to the space and defense industries. In the June quarter, they added NASA and Avio as space customers. They added three leading defense contractors, bringing them to a total of nine who accounted for over 35% of revenues in the first half of 2023.
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They’ll report earnings on November 6. The two-analyst consensus is expecting revenues up 41.3% from last year to $27 million and an eight-cent loss compared to 12¢ last year. Velo3D is executing well, steadily moving to positive cash flow with enough cash to get there. VLD is a Buy up to $6 for my $50 target as their high-tolerance metal parts printing business grows.
Primary Risk:A new 3D metal printing competitor emerges.
Biotech MegaShift: The $20-For-$1 Stocks
Say you put $2,000 into a stock that goes from 50¢ a share to $10. The $2,000 turns into $40,000. Then you put the $40,000 into another stock that goes from 50¢ to $10. That turns the $40,000 into $800,000. You did it with two stocks and never risked going negative more than $2,000. (Not that you won’t be mad at me if the first one works and then the second one doesn’t, taking your $40,000 to Money Heaven.)
If you can afford it – and it would not be too big a position in your portfolio – putting $2,000 into each of these speculative biotechs might be a good way to start. Buying these out-of-favor, fallen, or forgotten companies that can get important products through the FDA at very low market capitalizations seems like a good strategy to me.
Risks
Development-stage biotechs are subject to investor sentiment swings from wildly optimistic to excessively pessimistic – mostly the latter recently. After the Primary Risk for each company, I’ve added the clinical stage of their lead product, the probable time of their first FDA approval, and the probable time of their next financing.
As always, you need to think about an appropriate position size. You could buy a full position upfront and then just hold on, or buy some upfront and leave room to add more on the inevitable financings, transient clinical trial setbacks, and the like.
This has been an especially brutal biotech bear market. I feel your pain, but I promise you that (1) this will pass, and (2) biotech is going to be one of the top five investment areas for the next 10 years. Fortunes will be made.
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With XBI, the biotech exchange-traded fund and proxy, down 60%+ from its highs, there is an uptick in biotech companies conducting strategic alternatives and/or targets of shareholder activism. Stifel compiled a list of all the companies reviewing strategic options, sorted by enterprise value. Almost 50 of them trade near or below cash!
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Akebia Therapeutics (AKBA- $0.82) said the FDA accepted their resubmitted New Drug Application for vadadustat and gave them a six-month review with a PDUFA date of March 27. I think approval is a forgone conclusion. Buy AKBA up to $2 for the vadadustat launches in the EU, UK, and (after FDA approval in March 2024) the US.
Primary Risk: Vadadustat not approved in the US.
Clinical stage of lead product: Vadadustat NDA to be refiled by 9/30/23
Probable time of next FDA approval: March 2024
Probable time of next financing: Late 2024 or never
Aptose Biosciences (APTO – $2.82) holds their clinical update on the tuspetinib/venetoclax combination trials Monday morning. It should move the stock up. APTO is a Buy under $2.50 for a $300 target in a buyout.
Primary Risk: Either drug fails in clinical trials.
Clinical stage of lead product: Phase 2
Probable time of first FDA approval: 2025
Probable time of next financing: Late 2025
Inovio (INO – $0.38) is partnered with the University of Pennsylvania’s Basser Center for BRCA to develop their DNA vaccine candidate, INO-5401. The Center’s Director, Susan Domchek MD, was on the Today show:
INO is a Buy under $7 for a very long-term hold.
Primary Risk: Their drugs fail in the clinic.
Clinical stage of lead product: Phase 3
Probable time of first FDA approval: 2024
Probable time of next financing: 2025
Invitae (NVTA – $0.57) said findings from the largest study to date on uncertain results from hereditary disease genetic testing were published in JAMA Network Open. The study evaluated data from more than 1.6 million individuals undergoing multi-gene panel testing across various clinical specialty areas. This study shared with the medical genetics community a dataset that broadly shows the prevalence and attributes of DNA variants of uncertain significance (VUS) and the approaches that help with reclassifying these variants into definitive results. Buy NVTA under $10 for a first target of $50 and eventually $100+ when they become the Amazon of genetic testing.
Primary Risk: A competitor starts taking significant market share.
Clinical stage of lead product: NM
Probable time of first FDA approval: NM
Probable time of next financing: Not needed
Medicenna (MDNA – $0.25) dosed the first patient in the Phase 2 monotherapy dose expansion portion of their Phase 1/2 trial of MDNA11, a long-acting, beta-only interleukin-2 (IL-2) super-agonist for the treatment of advanced solid tumors. They will report initial results from both the monotherapy and combination arms of the Phase 2 dose expansion study in the first half of 2024.
New data from the Phase 1 dose-escalation and evaluation portion of the trial will be presented at the Society of Immunotherapy for Cancer (SITC) annual meeting on November 4. Buy MDNA under $3 for a first target of $20, then maybe $40.
Primary Risk: Their drugs fail in the clinic.
Clinical stage of lead product: Entering Phase 3
Probable time of first FDA approval: 2024
Probable time of next financing: March 2024
ScyNexis (SCYX – $1.71) presented preclinical data on its second generation fungerp candidate, SCY-247, against a broad panel of fungal pathogens at the Congress on Trends in Medical Mycology (TIMM). Results showed potent and broad-spectrum in vitro activity against a large array of yeasts, molds, and dimorphic fungi. Results also demonstrated SCY-247’s extensive tissue distribution in mice, including brain penetration. Finally, SCY-247 demonstrated fungicidal activity against multi-drug resistant strains, including Candida albicans and Candida auris, as well as evidence of dose-dependent in vivo efficacy in a mouse model of invasive candidiasis. Buy SCYX under $2.50 for a first target price of $20 after ibrexafungerp is approved for hospital use and a buyout at $50.
Primary Risk: Ibrexafungerp fails to sell.
Clinical stage of lead product: Approved
Probable time of next FDA approval: 2023/2024
Probable time of next financing: Never
TG Therapeutics (TGTX – $7.20) will start to see the compounding effect of patients returning to receive the third dose of Briumvi in the December quarter. Buy under $12 for a target price in a buyout of $30 or more.
Primary Risk:Briumvi, the MS drug, fails to sell.
Clinical stage of lead product: Approved
Probable time of next FDA approval: NM
Probable time of next financing: Never
Inflation MegaShift
Gold ($1,994.70) is about to breakout from one of the most bullish long-term charts you will ever see – and nobody cares. Gold is about to go to new all-time highs, while the number of “gold” news stories is at decade lows. That will change in a hurry once we break out and retail buying arrives in force.
Click for larger graphic h/t @hkuppy
The fractal dimension started a down move this week. Unlike the S&P fractals, I expect it to drop through 55, which will signal a new trend up to all-time highs.
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Cryptocurrencies
Cryptocurrencies are a diversifying asset that offer a unique opportunity to make (or lose!) a lot of money quickly. You can easily buy bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies at Coinbase, Block, or Robinhood.
Bitcoin (BTC-USD on Yahoo – $34,134.27) took off like a rocket on continued rumors of SEC approval of a spot exchange-traded fund. It traded over $35,000 for the first time in 18 months. I don’t trust these volatile moves (in either direction) to last, so my bias is not to chase.
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There are some other drivers. China capital outflows have erupted. The Israeli war is about to get hotter with a Gaza ground invasion. The price surge also led to the liquidation of roughly $400 million worth of short bitcoin positions.
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Also, open interest on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME), a venue favored by institutions, topping 100,000 bitcoin ($3.4 billion) for the first time. BTC-USD, ETH-USD, GBTC, and ETHE are Strong Buys.
Primary Risk: Bitcoin falls due to over-regulation or is surpassed by another cryptocurrency.
Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC- $25.77) got the final ruling from their suit against the SEC in the US Court of Appeals, which effectively clears the way for the SEC to approve their conversion to an exchange-traded fund. I expect that to happen before the end of the year. GBTC is a Buy under net asset value.
Primary Risk: Bitcoin falls due to over-regulation or is surpassed by another cryptocurrency.
Commodities
What assets are most correlated to increases in the Consumer Price Index? Commodities.
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Oil – $83.49
Crude storage increased 1.372 million barrels last week while gasoline increased 156,000 barrels, so the oil bears increased their short bets. Oil has now almost fully retraced its geopolitical spike and is up only 0.8% above its October 6 close. Good thing the Hamas-Israel war is over and Iranian production will continue full blast! Because Big 4 storage still is quite low:
Click for larger graphic h/t @HFI_Research
And relabeled Iranian and Russian oil has been feeding one very large buyer:
Click for larger graphic h/t @OilCfd
In the two huge M&A deals by ExxonMobil and Chevron, we’re saying goodbye from the oil market to two typically large hedgers: Pioneer Natural Resources and Hess. As the American exploration & production industry consolidates, the net result for now is less hedging, so less oil futures selling, less put buying, and less negative pressure on paper oil prices.
The July 2026 Crude Oil Futures (CLN26.NYM – $71.22) are a Buy under $70 for a $200+ target. Only buy futures for all cash; do not use margin.
The United States 12 Month Oil Fund, LP (USL – $39.04) is a Buy under $40 for a $100+ target.
EQT (EQT – $42.81) reported September quarter revenues down 43.0% from last year to $1.18 billion, above the $880 million consensus. Pro forma earning per share of 30¢ were far better than the 10¢ loss estimate. They said the integration of Tug Hill and XcL Midstream is ahead of schedule and progressing at a record pace – about 74% completed so far. They have already achieved ~40% drilling and completion efficiency improvements versus legacy Tug Hill performance in only ~60 days of operating the assets, with potential for up to $150 per foot of well cost savings.
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On the conference call this morning (SLIDES HERE and TRANSCRIPT HERE), management said they added hedges in 2024, bringing their total floor coverage to >40% at an average price of $3.59 per MMBtu in the Q1–Q3 2024 period, while remaining unhedged in 2025.
The LNG tolling agreements lets them sell natural gas at the much higher international prices.
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They now expect 2024 to 2028 free cash flow to total about $14 billion. That will increase as natty prices rise. The company was upgraded to investment grade at Moody’s, and now is rated investment grade at all three credit rating agencies.
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EQT is a buy under $35 for a first target of $70 and a long-term hold for much higher prices.
Primary Risk:Natural gas prices fall.
Energy Fuels (UUUU – $7.70) will follow spot uranium up. It seems to be unstoppable.
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There are six or seven utilities that need to buy over a million pounds each, and there are no offers…UUUU is a buy under $8 for a $30 target.
Primary Risk: Uranium prices fall.
Freeport McMoRan (FCX – $33.71) will run when copper prices explode, which they are about to do. The world is out of inventories, there won’t be any major new mines for years, and demand will grow even through a mild recession.
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FCX is a buy under $44 for a $65 target within two years.
Primary Risk: Copper prices fall.
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Click for larger graphic h/t @BrianFeroldi
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Top 10 Middle Eastern countries with the largest military forces, including numbers of battle tanks, military aircraft, and, where available, the number of nuclear or atomic warheads:
1 Iran: 2 million military personnel, 1,800 main battle tanks, 160 fighter jets. Nuclear warheads: 0.
2 Egypt: Over 1 million military personnel, 4,500 main battle tanks, 190 fighter jets. Nuclear warheads: 0.
3 Turkey: Over 1 million military personnel, 3,000 main battle tanks, 207 fighter jets. Nuclear warheads: 0 (hosts U.S. nuclear weapons as part of NATO).
4 Pakistan: Over 1 million military personnel, 3,000 main battle tanks, 435 fighter jets. Nuclear warheads: Approximately 165.
5 Israel: 600,000 military personnel, 2,700 main battle tanks, 400 fighter jets. Nuclear warheads: Approximately 90-100.
6 Syria: Over 400,000 military personnel, 4,500 main battle tanks, 25 fighter jets. Nuclear warheads: 0.
7 Iraq: 250,000 military personnel, 350 main battle tanks, no fighter jets. Nuclear warheads: 0.
8 Saudi Arabia: 250,000 military personnel, 700 main battle tanks, 95 fighter jets. Nuclear warheads: 0.
9 Jordan: 190,000 military personnel, 1,000 main battle tanks, 80 fighter jets. Nuclear warheads: 0.
10 United Arab Emirates: 65,000 military personnel, 600 main battle tanks, 90 fighter jets. Nuclear warheads: 0.
FOR COMPARISON:
United States: Military personnel: Approximately 1.4 million. Main battle tanks: Approximately 6,200. Fighter jets: Approximately 2,000. Nuclear warheads: Approximately 3,800.
Russia: Military personnel: Approximately 1.0 million. Main battle tanks: Approximately 13,000. Fighter jets: Approximately 900. Nuclear warheads: Approximately 6,375.
China: Military personnel: Approximately 2.2 million. Main battle tanks: Approximately 7,680. Fighter jets: Approximately 1,200. Nuclear warheads: Approximately 350.
h/t @RubenQuidu
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Your checking 100,000+ curated AI resources Editor,
Michael Murphy CFA
Founding Editor
New World Investor
All Recommendations
Priced 10/26/23. Check out the complete Portfolio page HERE.
Buys
These are the stocks everyone needs to own because transformative events are happening over the next year or two, and I expect to hold them long-term.
Tech Dominators
Apple Computer (AAPL – $166.89) – Buy under $150 for new iPhones
Corning (GLW – $26.93) – Buy under $33, target price $60
Gilead Sciences (GILD – $78.50) – Buy under $80, target price $120
Meta (META – $288.35) – Buy under $250, target price $400
SoftBank (SFTBY – $20.13) – Buy under $25, target price $50
Small Tech
Enovix (ENVX – $8.99) – Buy under $20; 4-year hold to $100+
First Trust NASDAQ Cybersecurity ETF (CIBR – $43.72) – Buy under $40; 3- to 5-year hold
Fastly (FSLY – $14.15) – Buy under $20; 2- to 5-year hold to $80+
PagerDuty (PD – $19.85) – Buy under $30; 2- to 5-year hold
QuickLogic (QUIK – $9.36) – Buy under $10, target price $40
Rocket Lab (RKLB – $4.28) – Buy under $13, target price $30+
Velo3D (VLD – $1.32) – Buy under $6, target price $50
$20-for-$1
Akebia Biotherapeutics (AKBA – $0.82) – Buy under $2, target $20
Aptose Biosciences (APTO – $2.82) – Buy under $10, ultimate target $300
Compass Pathways (CMPS – $5.46) – Buy under $20, hold a long time for a 10x return
Inovio (INO – $0.38) – Buy under $7, hold a long time
Invitae (NVTA – $0.57) – Buy under $10, first target $50, then $100+
Medicenna (MDNA – $0.25) – Buy under $3, first target $20, then maybe $40
ScyNexis (SCYX – $1.71 – Buy under $3, target price $20, then $50
TG Therapeutics (TGTX – $7.20) – Buy under $12 for buyout at $30+
Inflation
A Short-Sale or REO House – ($415,400) – Hold
Bag of Junk Silver – ($22.94) – hold through silver bull market
Sprott Gold Miners ETF (SGDM – $23.85) – Buy under $28, target price $50
Sprott Junior Gold Miners ETF (SGDJ – $26.20) – Buy under $39, target price $100
Sprott Physical Gold and Silver Trust (CEF – $18.36) – Buy under $18, target price $30
Global X Silver Miners ETF (SIL – $24.32) – Buy under $30, target price $50
Coeur Mining (CDE – $2.47) – Buy under $5, target price $20
First Majestic Mining (AG – $5.39) – Buy under $11, next target price $23
Paramount Gold Nevada (PZG – $0.32) – Buy under $1, first target price $10
Sandstorm Gold (SAND – $4.58) – Buy under $10, target price $25
Sprott Inc. (SII – $28.90) – Buy under $40, target price $70
Cryptocurrencies
Bitcoin (BTC-USD – $34.134.27) – Buy
Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC – $25.77) – Buy
Ethereum (ETH-USD – $1,799.18) – Buy
Grayscale Ethereum Trust (ETHE – $13.02) – Buy
Commodities
Crude Oil Futures – July 2026 (CLN26.NYM – $71.22) – Buy under $70; $200+ target
United States 12 Month Oil Fund, LP (USL – $39.04) – Buy under $40; $100+ target
EQT (EQT – $42.81) – Buy under $35; $70 first target
Energy Fuels (UUUU – $7.70) – Buy under $8; $30 target
Freeport McMoRan (FCX – $33.71) – Buy under $44; $65 target within two years
International & Other Recommendations
EMQQ Emerging Markets Internet & Ecommerce ETF (EMQQ – $28.21) – Buy under $38 for a $66 target in 12 to 18 months
KraneShares Bosera MSCI China A Share Fund (KBA – $21.27) – Buy under $40 for a three- to five-year hold
Morgan Stanley China A-Shares Fund (CAF – $11.67) – Buy under $18 for a three- to five-year hold
KraneShares CSI China Internet ETF (KWEB – $26.30) – Buy under $40 for a double over the next three years
Acreage Holdings (ACRDF – $0.31) – Buy under $2 for the Canopy Growth merger
Mongolia Growth Group (MNGGF – $1.07) – Buy under $1.30; long-term hold
Holds
These are holds but not sells – yet. They could get moved back to one of the buy categories if their prices drop or outlook improves, or they could become sell recommendations in the future.
Arch Therapeutics (ARTH – $0.60) – Hold for buyout
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First.
I sent an email to IR at Medicenna regarding the Reverse Split and this was their response. I hoping this means they are partnering with someone and not going bankrupt!!
Good morning, Doug,
Thanks for your continued interest in Medicenna.
We have decided to pursue another option for now.
You will learn more about it soon if you have subscribed to our press release alert.
Kind regards,
Delphine
Delphine Davan, M.Sc., MBA
VP, Investor Relations and Corporate Communications
DIdn’t take long for the press release…
Medicenna Announces Nasdaq Delisting and Cutback of Management Team
https://ir.medicenna.com/news-releases/news-release-details/medicenna-announces-nasdaq-delisting-and-cutback-management-team
Good for them! No reason to pay Nasdaq big bucks to bully them.
APTO – You had a $30 ultimate target prior to the 15:1 reverse split. Then you boosted it to $300 post reverse split. Now it’s back to $30, which is only a $200M market value. I think $300 was the correct one as it’s a $2B market value, which is more in line with Tusp potential sales.
You are correct.
ESH update out.
91 patients have received TUS as a single agent
Aptose anticipated dosing up to 30 patients with TUS/VEN by the ESH 2023 Conference; however, investigator enthusiasm resulted in dosing of 49 patients (as of October 23, 2023), and patients continue being enrolled.
Data looks good but it’s not helping the stock any.
https://www.aptose.com/investors/news-events/press-releases/detail/279/aptose-presents-highlights-from-clinical-update-webcast
mike murphy, I know why you are not afraid of the new Covid numbers: 1. you finally figured out that it is just a bad flu and 2. you know the vax will kill you.
Just like it killed all the millions who’ve been vaccinated? Get a life! (Better yet, get a brain.)
MM made a educated choice for himself and it worked He now has immunity without getting the shot but he may have some after affects from the Covid virus
I will forever be intrigued how a life saving vaccine could become politicized but that is the power of social media I guess.
It’s really interesting spending time in two countries. When I’m in Canada, most of the talk is about the weather and hockey. When I’m in North Carolina, ALL of the talk is about politics, god, and guns.
I would like to live in Canada Is it difficult to immigrate to Canada?
It is rather difficult. They used to have a program in British Columbia where you could become citizen if you bought an expensive house. Many rich Chinese took advantage of this and drove Vancouver prices through the roof. I don’t think it is still an option.
My dad was born in Montreal so I got automatic citizenship which still took nearly 2 years.
P.S. Canada is cold. Canada is progressive. Canada has free and fantastic health care no matter what you read in the US. Canada doesn’t have religious zealots running the government. Canada doesn’t have its hands in every war in the world.
I’m currently doing 9 months in Canada and 3 months in Western NC.
Canada has socialist zealots with mandates. Individual freedom to choose is nil with mandates.
And how long have you lived in Canada? I’ll wait. I’m guessing never.
go ahead. one last liberal voter to wreck the usa
one fewer intelligent wealthy investors with no guns
It’s God, not god. BTW, I am not religious. A cogent case can be made for the existence of God, and HE is deserving of respect, even if HE is unknowable.
So you can’t prove anything but you think it deserves a proper noun? Perhaps tomatoes are deities so we should call them Tomatoes? You are better than this.
You evade my logic, as usual for a liberal. Tomatoes (tomatoes, whatever) are not God. Tomatoes are tangible entities, created by God.
It is convenient for you to deny the existence of some entity like God that nobody can absolutely prove. But you and many other successful investors operate according to assumptions of probabilities of risks and rewards. Good doctors like me know that absolute certainty in medicine and science is rare, although we make reasonably educated guesses. The most brilliant theoretical physicists like Einstein and his successors operate in the realm of the somewhat unprovable. All these guesses are intangible mental abstractions. The concept of God is the most famous abstraction of all. THE most compelling argument in favor of the existence of God is that the random chance theory of evolution/natural selection has an infinitesimally small chance of creating the complex, organized structure of animals/plants. A lottery ticket with $1 billion payout is like a blue chip mutual fund’s much greater odds of success compared to the random creation of natural selection. Dogmatic scientists have struggled with these odds, and don’t have any convincing opposing view denying the existence of God.
hey StephKam why don’t you get an updated booster. it comes with a side of myocarditis. Get a life! Oh, wait if you get another booster you might really have to get a life. Good luck!
mRNA technology has a history of causing clots and because I’ve had a stroke it seemed better to strengthen my immune system and use a saline spray. I never heard of anyone dying from the seasonal flu, so Covid clearly is way worse. But the current case and death data show it’s just not significant anymore.
If you’ve had a stroke isn’t it typical to be on a blood thinner?
Also, your premise is off base. There is no evidence that mRNA causes blood clots. There is some evidence that it has a slight risk for myocarditis.
For the record, 400k ( mostly elderly) die of the seasonal flu each year.
“I never heard of anyone dying from the seasonal flu.” Very odd statement from someone who was pushing BCRX for peramivir a few years ago.
I made money with BCRX. An oldie but a goodie if you sold at the highs/
LOL…even CNN disagrees with you, and they’ve been a vax cheerleader for almost 3 years now…just as soon as Trump lost, they shifted from questioning the timing of the ‘rushed vax’ to everyone needs to get it! You couldn’t less informed if you tried.
https://www.cnn.com/2023/10/25/health/covid-flu-vaccine-stroke-risk-study/index.html
Right. In addition, copy my recent posts on natural aids to recovery.
The following are correct on covid and vaxxes–Drake, DonB, MM.
Yeah I guess the hell with data and studies. Where did you go to school?
I guess some people can only see one side of a discussion? And speaking of schools: Johns Hopkins, Harvard, Stanford, Oxford, Yale…guess you know more than these folks? Genius!
Keep the blinders on and ignore epidemiologists who are calling for the immediate discontinuation of the mRNA products. You know, hacks like these guys who know far less than you or the Ethiopian non doctor who heads the WHO.
Stanford’s Jay Bhattacharya
https://profiles.stanford.edu/jay-bhattacharya;jsessionid=66377F5BEB7486AB995EF1E5807E45B1.cap-su-capappprd99
Yale’s Harvey Risch
https://ysph.yale.edu/profile/harvey-risch/
https://www.hopkinsmedicine.org/profiles/details/martin-makary
Plus:
Harvard’s Martin Kulldorff, PhD Biostatistician. He is a member of the FDA’s Drug Safety and Risk Management Advisory Committee and a former member of the Vaccine Safety Subgroup of the Advisory Committee on Immunization Practices at the CDC.
OR: Oxford’s professor of epidemiology Sunetra Gupta
Stanford. Yale. John’s Hopkins. Harvard. Oxford.
And you think it actually works, after all of the propaganda that turned out to be complete lies???
Get vaccinated and you won’t get sick. Get vaccinated and you won’t transmit it.
Since that was bullshit and had no basis in fact, it became get vaccinated to avoid hospitalization and death for a disease with an IFR of the annual flu…something that can’t be proven one way or the other, but keep on pushing it…
Says the guy who loves the country that silences speech and forces medical procedures on healthy people, if they want to live their lives, keep their jobs, travel on public transportation, etc…
Forced ‘vaccination’ of a product that doesn’t keep you from getting sick or spreading it should get sick…again, Fucking Genius!
Wow. What an angry person. Calm down.
Typical liberal…lay out facts, get a stupid response. That’s it, in summary…I pray you get many more boosters on your health journey…you’ll be the 2% going forward…
You have been “schooled” i.e. indoctrinated by mainstream media which has censored truth tellers from doctors other than I who really know. Some of these doctors’ careers have been destroyed just for merely presenting their viewpoints and experiences. There is much censorship from mainstream medical journals which violate free speech rights of others.
I have a friend of 50 years who has spent the last 45 years in Edmonton, Alberta, Canada. He knows what he is talking about in confirming my assertions. Get ready for robotic, bureaucratic medical care in Canada. That’s what you deserve.
I’ve been to docs in both countries. I would say that the docs I’ve spoken with in Canada are much better than the US. In the US, the profit motive leads docs to simply check boxes and send the patient to a specialist where expensive diagnostic tests are provided.
The Canadian docs have no such profit motive and will actually listen to you rather than shove you down the line. And the big kicker .. it’s all free. No Medicare part B removed from your SS check, no Medigap, no Medicare part D, no deductibles.
Trust me, all those Medicare programs are going to cost more and more.
The US does have a very big and expensive military though!
You are accustomed to mediocre medical care in both US and Canada. They are both socialized systems with standard of care regulations that show ignorance of causes of disease. You don’t know any of this, but my Canadian friend does. Join DonB who has some understanding of what I talk about. Don’t rely on any doctor, US or Canadian who practices solely within the medical system. You’ll get bad drugs, surgery, dangerous radiation only.
You are correct that Medicare programs will cost more and more. But medical care will still be mediocre because of what I said. Canadian medicine is not free–Canadians pay for it in higher taxes and lower wages. Socialists think govt benefits are free–WRONG. Real costs are disguised as the citizens are misled.
Can you explain why Americans have been brainwashed into thinking that socialism is a nasty word yet the US military, fire departments, police, highway systems, social security and medicare are all socialist systems?
Even more interesting is the GOP is constantly talking about cutting the very programs that their constituents rely on.
Talk about being misled.
Socialists like you continue to make excuses and deny reality. SOCIALISM = STEAL-ISM. This is different from VOLUNTARY charity with a fraction of individual assets. Religious traditions peg the fraction at 10%. The fast growing Asian tiger countries of the 80’s had 10% tax rates, in line with the religious standard. Taxation is still stealing, because it is forced spending, but the world isn’t perfect, and there are a legitimate few govt functions (military, fire, police, highway) that the free markets have difficulty implementing. 10% is about the right number, figured out a long time ago.
STEALING is an unproductive way to run society, because more effort is spend being a criminal than being productive. Stealing by a few initially gets other people angry and jealous, more stealing occurs as more people want to get in on what they think are freebies. Then the whole system collapses as stealing becomes more dominant than productive advances. Social security, medicare are collapsing. They are unsustainable. SS retirement age is rising as life expectancy is rising, which is proper. But the dominant reason is that more people are scamming the system which can’t afford it. Successful stealing enables scamming, all with “other” people’s money. But it is “your” money that is being looted as the socialist system collapses of its own weight.
You need an education.
I’m doing just great, thanks.
MM Has SCYX done human trials for their anti Fungal drug I just see mice trails mentioned? What drug has been approved for human use?
Is there any safe place in the stock market these days? it seems everything is going down no matter how well they perform as a business.
The only safe haven in markets like this is cash. You’ve seen these market cycles before. In this environment, only buy profitable companies with strong balance sheets. Spec stuff is poison.
I strongly believe that this GOP controlled congress is going to throw a real monkey in the wrench with the upcoming budget cuts. Get some insurance.
Ibrexafungerp was approved for human use and licensed to Glaxo SmithKline. SCY-237 will enter human trials soon.
Facts vs hunches.
https://x.com/samanthaladuc/status/1717940957990060284?s=61&t=JAO4KA14CYksz45KmLhYXA
NVTA (np) related: Cost of genetic testing starting to get more insurance coverage.
https://www.medpagetoday.com/special-reports/features/107027?xid=nl_mpt_DHE_2023-10-29&eun=g2052817d0r&utm_source=Sailthru&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=Daily%20Headlines%20Evening%202023-10-29&utm_term=NL_Daily_DHE_dual-gmail-definition
As I exercise a fair amount of restraint in refraining from an ad-hominem attack on the new Speaker of the House (the same one who plotted to unconstitutionally violate the democratic process in the most recent presidential election) I will simply say that ignoring mental health and red flag laws that are routinely ignored by law enforcement are much more significant issues than “the human heart”. And if not now, then when. https://www.axios.com/2023/10/27/speaker-mike-johnson-gun-control-gay-marriage
I’ll give him until December. He is herding cats.
What To Expect When TG Therapeutics Reports Q3 2023 Results (NASDAQ:TGTX) | Seeking Alpha
Debt , debt, debt, who cares about the debt? Tomorrow’s refinancing of 1.14 TRILLION will be a barn burner . We are closing in on $400,000.00 for every child being born in the US. (Their share of the national debt) .The US debt is up 23 percent since 2022. The US has 3 Trillion in payments and only takes in 2.7 trillion in tax revenues. We have now an 8 percent deficit. And out of control expenses with the carrier groups in Israel and spending going to Ukraine. Instead of asking, what’s wrong with this picture? , we need to ask , what’s right with this picture?? Iran, Russia, and China all know we can’t finance two wars with a negative check book and they are waiting for us to crack!! Just IMO
Well you are right but you’re conveniently leaving out the nearly 8 trillion of debt added from 2016 to 2020. A 40% jump.
It’s going to be gut the military or gut Social Security and Medicare.
Maybe, but I doubt it. Inflation is more likely.
I agree but how long can we maintain inflation? Starter homes in my old stomping grounds in Seattle are 1 million. Can we have forever Zimbabwe? Maybe but the millennial and gen z kids are getting screwed. Eventually those kids will take control and we will look much more like Canada and Europe.
Pres.Trump in four years added more to our national debt than Pres. Bush and Pres. Obama did in 16 years. Why are the Republicans only concerned about the debt when a Democrat is in the Presidency?
It’s not a blame game . All politicians have done it now for decades. The reality is we have finally reach the point of no return. The bond market is going nuts because they printed so much money now and the FED had to raise interest rates so much so fast. And the state of the US credit (selling treasury bonds) is in jeopardy. China used to be a big buyer of our debt because it used to be one of the safest investments in the world. China has been selling our bonds now for awhile. Big banks have gone bankrupt because they held millions in US bonds (thinking that they were safe from crashing) . But when the FED raised interest rates , the value of those bonds got hammered and the big banks balance sheet inverted. MM is right. More inflation is on the horizon because the only way out of this mess now is to print more money so we can continue this insanity as we manage the debt with cheaper dollars.
MM–TGTX looks like it will be your most successful stock pick ever–THANKS. There was a SA hit piece last PM. One of the points is that a growing company should be valued at 5x CURRENT sales rather than PEAK sales. I believe that Amazon in the early years was valued using peak sales. If TGTX is like Amazon or Briumvi is at least the clear drug of choice for MS, would you value it using peak sales? Of course, peak sales is anyone’s guess, while current sales are hard numbers. If a company has very rapid sustained growth, then what is an appropriate multiple based on current sales? You probably are thinking about revising your target stock price in a buyout or even if TGTX does well to grow sales on their own.
Are we looking at the same company. Is this the TGTX that has fallen from $35 to $10 in 6 months? Is this the TGTX that has fallen from $50 to $10 in 5 years?
Don’t even look at the long term chart.
TGTX is one NWI stock that I am now finally playing well. I bought it after MM’s early rec many years ago at $5. Mistake #1–not taking profits at $50 a few years later. Mistake #2–not selling at $30-35 after the recent parabolic rise. Even MM had a buyout target of only $25, so I was stupidly greedy for $100. But I finally thought that the shorts were spreading FUD, and I bought more early this week at $7.25. We’ll see.
JGMD thanks for the info on Vit C I ordered some quicksilver C now will get the glutithione Do you take the C six times a day because your body can only absorb a limited amount at once?
I just sold my home in N.C I regret it already.
By the way I decided at my age I might be wise to get the covid shot and the RSV shot as well. Weeks in bed would not work for me as did MM. Im in my 80s
My suggestion–do not get any vexes. Read the well referenced mercola.com and follow RFK, Jr who is very knowledgable. There are safe ways to mitigate any viral illness. Use Quicksilver products–glutathione (GSH), Vit C in the doses I wrote for illness. Chris Shade of Quicksilver advises high doses to get the best effect. The GSH and C have short durations of action, so for serious illness they need to be taken many times a day. For routine maintenance detox, I take then 1-2x a day, or use oral NAC 900 mg as a substitute for GSH. Even better, I just bought Pure Encapsulations’ NAC with glycine, 1800 mg of each in a powder. GSH has 3 amino acids–cysteine, glycine and glutamic acid. The latter is plentiful in a good diet with plenty of protein, so the NAC (cysteine) plus glycine is the next best thing to liposomal GSH at a reasonable price. Dale Bredesen and David Perlmutter have treated Alzheimers’ and Parkinson’s patients with intravenous GSH. I have a patient with sarcoidosis, an ultimately fatal lung inflammatory disease. Mainstream pulmonary specialists have nothing to offer, but her breathing is a little better on NAC and Ester C 4x/day, chronically.
Maintain your Vit D 25 hydroxy blood level 50-80 ng/ml. I take 10,000 IU on Mon, Wed, Fri, and 5000 IU the other 4 days. Always take D at the end of a fatty meal for better absorption. Individual assessment is required to figure out the D dose. In Canada, it is difficult to get the blood test for D. Medical tyranny with one size fits all mentality. People with low levels of D below 20 had much greater risk of serious covid morbidity than those with levels 50-80, but this information was suppressed by mainstream medical authorities with their agenda. Too bad the Canadians aggressively push their agenda. My friend in Canada was treated like a child by his pharmacy’s abusive semi-coercion. He managed to stay away from them. His “higher” authority was God, who gave him the confidence to rely on his own education and independent study. As a humorous aside, many years ago there was a TV commercial for Hebrew National hot dogs, saying that their standards were from a higher authority.
The 11/2/23 issue of New World Investor is posted.