Dear New World Investor:

To no one’s surprise, for the second meeting in a row the Fed made no change to interest rates on Wednesday. They also didn’t change their prediction for two rate cuts later year. But they did raise their estimate of the core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) measure of inflation from 2.5% to 2.8%. I’d say that makes the two projected rate cuts more of a wish than a forecast.

They also trimmed their 2025 real GDP forecast from 2.1% to 1.7%, and raised their unemployment rate a tenth from 4.3% to 4.4%. They may be inching towards the dreaded stagflation scenario, although Chairman Powell said the economy is “healthy.” As you’ll see below, the Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow model disagrees.

Market Outlook

The S&P 500 added 2.5% since last Thursday. The Index is down 3.7% year-to-date. As of last Thursday’s close, the S&P 500 recorded its fastest 10% drop since the COVID-19 outbreak in March 2020, before rallying 2% on Friday. It has been a “barbell” correction, with both the Mag 7 and Russell 2000 falling 20% or more while the cap-weighted and equal-weighted S&P 500 index are down 10%. (The Nasdaq is down 12%.) The broader index’s decline has erased $5.3 trillion in stock market value, with just over half of that from the Magnificent 7 technology stocks that have led the market higher in recent years. Historically, a 10% correction has led to a bear market (a decline of 20% or more) only 25% of the time.

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But the S&P is generally positive in the week, month, quarter, and year that follows a sharp decline.

Click for larger graphic h/t @WinfieldSmart

The Nasdaq Composite gained 2.2% as Wall Street grudgingly admitted that, yeah, AI really is the Next Big Thing. It is still down 8.3% for the year, though. The SPDR S&P Biotech Exchange-Traded Fund (XBI) lagged, climbing 0.7%. It is down 3.9% year-to-date as Wall Street continues to avoid a sector that will dominate the next decade, second only to AI. The small-cap Russell 2000 won the week, jumping 3.7%, but still is down 7.2% in 2025.

The fractal dimension pulled back from signaling a new downtrend, thanks to last Friday’s rally. It wouldn’t take much more weakness to trigger it right now. Or we could see a little snap back from the recent sharp decline to stay in consolidation mode.

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Top 5

Changes this week: None

Near-Term – chronological order
AKBA Akebia Therapeutics – Vafseo launch
SCYX – ScyNexis – Announce resolution of the manufacturing problem, lifting of clinical hold, restart of MARIO trial, maybe GSK files for hospital use approval
EQT EQT –natural gas price rebound
USL United States 12 Month Oil Fund, LP – crude should rise quickly
FCX Freeport McMoRan – copper shortage

Long-Term – alphabetical order
ABCL AbCelllera – Will become a huge pharma royalty company
UUUU Energy Focus – Domestic uranium supplier
EQT EQT – largest US natural gas company
IBIT iShares Bitcoin Trust – Bitcoin is headed for $150,000
META Meta – a (the?) leader in the metaverse
PLTR Palantir – a (the?) leader in AI applications software
RKLB Rocket Lab – #2 to SpaceX in space
SCYX ScyNexis –First new antifungal in 20 years

Economy

The Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow model is slowly increasing its estimate for March quarter GDP and now is expecting “only” a 1.8% decline. Record gold imports still account for about a 3% hit, but that does not appear in the GDP release on April 30. The next update of GDPNow on March 26 will adjust the standard GDPNow model forecast for foreign trade in gold.

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Recession panic is back in full force, causing Google searches for “recession” to shoot up in a straight line. The last three similar spikes happened in June 2022, September 2022, and August 2024. None of them lead to an economic downturn.

I was wrong about a recession in 2024, even after the faked erroneous payroll data is corrected, but there could be one in 2025. In a typical recession, the S&P 500 drops around 30%. So far, we’ve only seen a 9% correction, so if this is the start of a recessionary decline, we could be looking at another 20% downside.

A key recession signal is rising unemployment. Every US recession in the last 70 years occurred alongside a surge in initial jobless claims, released every Thursday morning. Claims tend to rise before recessions even begin. So far, we’re not seeing that warning sign from the labor market, but we are close. Until initial claims cross above at least the 250,000 level, I don’t think a recession is here yet. Recently we saw March 6 at 222,000; March 13 at 221,000, and this morning at 223,000.

Click for larger graphic h/t @bravosresearch

Coming Events
All times below are ET, and most presentations and slides are archived on the companies’ websites so you can listen to them.

Tuesday, March 25
Short Interest – After the close

Thursday, March 27
December quarter GDP – 8:30am – Third estimate

Friday, March 28
Personal Consumption Expenditures Index – 8:30am – The Fed’s favorite

Big Tech: The Biotech & Digital Dominators MegaShift
There are at least four ways to make money in the stocks of these large, growing, dominant companies. You can:
* * Buy a stock and hold it
* * Buy a stock and write a call option against it
* * With a Level IV options account, write an out-of-the-money put option
* * With a Level IV options account, write an out-of-the-money put option and use part of the premium to buy an out-of-the-money call option

Apple (AAPL – $214.10) is losing more than $1 billion a year on its Apple TV+ streaming service, according to The Information. They’ve spent more than $5 billion a year on content since 2019 but had only 40.4 million subscribers at the end of 2024. Netflix had 301.63 million subscribers, Disney+ had 124.6 million, and Warner Bros Discovery had 116.9 million. Although Apple TV+ is known for original shows like Ted Lasso, The Morning Show, Shrinking, and Severance that have won many awards, a lot of its subscribers are from bundle deals substantially discounted from the $9.99 a month list price. AAPL is a HOLD – I expect to move it back to Buy under $175 for new iPhones.

Corning (GLW – $48.67) held their Investor Event (AUDIO & SLIDES HERE and TRANSCRIPT HERE). CEO Wendell Weeks said the Springboard plan started from $3.27 billion in sales in the December 2023 quarter. That’s an annul run rate of about $13 billion. The original internal plan was to hit a $21 billion run rate – $8 billion in incremental sales – in the December 2028 quarter.

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For investors, they translate the internal plan into a higher-confidence external plan. The $5 billion in incremental sales by the December 2025 quarter in the internal plan was reduced to $3 billion with little or no incremental operating expenses. Their target was to get operating margins up to 20% by the end of 2026. With 2024 in the record books, they are off to a great start:

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They increased their internal plan by a billion dollars to add $6 billion to the revenue run rate by the end of 2026. Corning also added a billion dollars to the higher-confidence external plan to raise that target to $4 billion by the end of 2026.

Their optical fiber business is capturing a lot of revenue in generative AI data centers, so they raised their 2023-2027 enterprise sales compound annual growth rate (CAGR) from 25% to 30%.

Wendell raised March quarter revenue guidance from $3.6 billion to over $3.6 billion. He raised the lower end of the earnings guidance range from 48¢-52¢ to 50¢-52¢ and said he expects earnings at the high end of the range.

CFO Ed Schlesinger said they locate manufacturing plants like display products near the customers, so tariffs don’t affect them directly. Of course, a flat-screen TV made in China might be subject to US import tariffs. They make optical fiber in the US and have the largest fiber factory in the world in North Carolina. 90% of their US revenue comes from products of US origin and most of the rest is US-Mexico-Canada (USMCA) compliant.GLW is a Buy under $33 for a $60 target in 2025.

Meta Platforms (META – $586.00) said Llama, their open source collection of AI models, has been downloaded more than one billion times by a wide variety of users from industry leaders like Spotify to startups and individual developers. META is a Buy under $655 for a long-term hold.

Micron (MU – $103.00) will be a major beneficiary of Nvidia’s product path described next. Nvidia’s new Vera Rubin processor contains 288 gigabytes of high-bandwidth memory (HBM4 DRAM) 50% more than Blackwell. Micron is the leading supplier of HBM4.

They reported February second quarter earnings after the close today. Revenues were up 38.3% from last year to $8.05 billion due to strong demand for AI memory. That was just above the $7.90 billion consensus estimate. Pro forma earnings hit $1.56 per share, also above the $1.42 consensus.

On the conference call (WEBCAST HERE and SLIDES HERE and PREPARED REMARKS HERE and POST-EARNINGS ANALYST CALL HERE), CEO Sanjay Mehrotra said high-bandwidth memory (HBM) for AI grew more than 50% sequentially and exceeded $1 billion this quarter for the first time ever. Operating cash flow hit $3.94 billion, up from the first quarter’s $3.24 billion, and more than tripling last year’s $1.22 billion. He guided the May third quarter to a record $8.80 billion in revenues ±$200 million, above the $8.48 billion estimate. Pro forma earnings are forecast at $1.57 ±10¢, also above the $1.52 Wall Street estimate.

Sanjay said: “We are extending our technology leadership with the launch of our 1-gamma DRAM node. We expect record quarterly revenue in fiscal Q3, with DRAM and NAND demand growth in both data center and consumer-oriented markets, and we are on track for record revenue and significantly improved profitability in fiscal 2025.”

Their 1-gamma chip started shipping in February. It is their first DRAM node incorporating extreme ultraviolet (EUV) processing technology. They have achieved 20% lower power, 15% better performance, and over a 30% improvement in bit density compared to the current 1-beta DRAM.

The company is growing HBM capacity in their existing manufacturing facilities to meet requirements through 2026. In January, they broke ground on a new HBM advanced packaging facility in Singapore. It will meaningfully expand their total advanced packaging capacity beginning in calendar 2027. At the same time, their new DRAM fab construction in Idaho completed an important construction milestone that enabled the receipt of the first disbursement of funding from their CHIPS grant for the project during the quarter. This new Idaho fab will provide meaningful DRAM output starting in fiscal 2027.

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The company is sold out of HBM for calendar 2025 and seeing strong demand for 2026 deliveries.
They ended the quarter with $9.6 billion in cash. MU is a Buy under $102 for a $140 first target.

Nvidia (NVDA – $118.53) held their big GTC Conference with a keynote by CEO Jensen Huang.

Jensen revealed their product path through 2027, starting with Blackwell Ultra in the second half of this year. As we know, volume shipments will follow in 2026. That will be followed by Vera Rubin in the second half of 2026, with volume shipments in 2027. That will be followed a year later by Rubin Ultra, then by a new generation of processors called Feynman. Their product path also includes Dynamo, a new software operating system to make their GPUs more profitable to customers.

He also announced Isaac GR00T N1, a platform to supercharge humanoid robot development. He said the robotics industry is at a new “iPhone moment” for manufacturing and household help: “When humanoid robots are wandering around is not five years away, this is a few years away.”

Other announcements included a partnership with GM to add AI to next-generation cars, factories, and robots; a wireless project to create “AI-native” wireless network hardware for the coming 6G networks; and new Nvidia-based personal supercomputer systems from Dell, HP, and others.

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There are three scaling events in AI driving demand for Nvidia’s processors. First, they are vital for training AI models. That has been the main revenue source so far as the hyperscalers – Amazon, Google, Meta, Microsoft, Oracle, and many sovereign governments – build giant data centers. Jensen said we are about to see a one million GPU center the size of Manhattan, and: “I’ve said before that I expect data center build-out to reach $1 trillion. And I am fairly certain we’re going to reach that very soon.”

Second, once the model is trained, it can be used for general inferencing – giving users results – on less-powerful processors. But if the customer wants specific information based on their proprietary data – say a biotech company with years of research data – they need to use Nvidia GPUs for further training.

Third – and this is new – reasoning at the inference stage like DeepSeek’s model also requires more Nvidia processors instead of the less-powerful accelerator processors used without reasoning. That’s why the stock drop after the DeepSeek announcement was so bizarre and why I recommended buying the sell-off. Jensen said: “Last year, this is where almost the entire world got it wrong. The computation requirement, the scaling law of AI is more resilient and, in fact, hyperaccelerated. The amount of computation we need at this point as a result of agentic AI, as a result of reasoning, is easily a hundred times more than we thought we needed this time last year.”

Jensen also announced a quantum computing lab in Boston. Even though he thinks that technology is 20 years away from practical use, he (A) doesn’t want to be blindsided if it comes faster; and, (B) wants Nvidia to be a leader in the field when it gets here.

At the financial analyst Q&A (AUDIO HERE and SLIDES HERE), Jensen said the broad applications for AI add up to a new industrial revolution – something I have believed for years. Agenic AI for individuals and organizations uses agents to gather information and do work. Physical AI – humanoid robots – slash manufacturing costs and provide household help. Like a car, almost every family will have a humanoid robot.

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Wall Street generally got the message. In declining order of target price, KeyBanc rates the stock Overweight and has a $190 target price. They wrote: “Jensen noted that in the event of a recession, companies are likely to accelerate their capital allocation towards AI initiatives. He emphasized that AI remains the fastest-growing sector, making it a strategic priority in an economic downturn. Jensen affirmed NVDA’s commitment to onshore manufacturing, highlighting TSMC’s $100 billion investment in Arizona. He noted that NVDA is already producing silicon there and is prepared to manufacture onshore. He also underscored the agility of NVDA’s global supply chain, which allows for flexible production adjustment across different regions. He indicated that, in the short term, tariffs will have little impact, and in the long term, manufacturing will be moved onshore.”

Benchmark also has a Buy with a $190 target. They wrote: “Although Jensen’s keynote may not have been the savior of the company’s declining stock price that many had hoped for, we question what more the company could have said.”

Jefferies reiterating its Buy rating and $185 target, even though they wrote: “There was little commentary comparing the use cases [of Nvidia’s GPUs] versus peers or ASICs. Vera Rubin will only be an incremental update in 2026 with Rubin Ultra the more meaningful leap ahead in 2027.”
Still, they wrote: “The pace of innovation throughout the rack from GPU performance to power continues to show why NVDA will remain the leader in AI.”

Stifel has a Buy with a $180 target. They wrote: “NVDA reiterated that its Blackwell/Hopper compare (3.6 million ordered so far vs. 1.3 million peak Hopper in 2024) references orders from the top four U.S. hyperscalers, which under-represents overall demand. Internet services, AI startups, robotics, etc. are not included. The compare was meant to illustrate the extent of continued hyperscaler demand within the backdrop of concerns related to the potential for lower compute demand post-DeepSeek.

“NVDA also believes that the impact of DeepSeek is misunderstood, i.e. distillation of large models into multiple configurations is more about running specific workloads in the most compute-efficient manner possible. In NVDA’s view, distillation does not change the broader dynamic related to building the smartest/fastest AI across a wide range of workloads.”

JPMorgan has a $170 target and an overweight rating. They said: “The team believes that spending from AI factories represents upside optionality, as it is currently not included in the data center infrastructure forecast. They expect AI factory projects to be valued in the hundreds of billions of dollars. The team asserts a strong competitive advantage over ASIC solutions due to its comprehensive system solutions, software stack, ecosystem, and ease of adoption. They believe that competitors are still trying to catch up to the last-generation Hopper GPU architecture, while NVIDIA is already ahead with its Blackwell architecture, which offers 40x better performance.

“Jensen Huang presented a compelling case on how innovations in AI models, such as DeepSeek, will drive higher compute complexity and necessitate increasing compute demand.”

Citi reiterating its Buy rating and $163 target. They wrote: “We came out of the keynote reassured in NVIDIA’s leadership, which if anything seems to be expanding.” They called Nvidia “king of the hill.”

Morgan Stanley said they were “more positive” after the analyst Q&A because the company “made a strong case” for its ability to deliver product leadership in AI through at least 2027 and highlighted the strong commitment from its major cloud customers as AI technology scales. They maintained their Overweight rating and $162 target price.

DA Davidson is still worried about DeepSeek. They have a Neutral rating with a $125 target and wrote: “From the keynote to the investor day, Mr. Huang made it clear that the market has been wrong on the impact of DeepSeek-R1 to Nvidia, stating that reasoning models use exponentially more compute than a vanilla transformer model.

“At face value, we don’t see any problem with this statement as reasoning models use considerably more tokens and KV cache. However, as we pointed out from DeepSeek’s OpenSourceWeek, they are serving roughly 1/3 of OpenAI’s volume on a fraction of the infrastructure, at just 2,224 H800s. While very few labs are extracting that kind of efficiency out of their systems, we’d note that DeepSeek open-sourcing their algorithms and repositories leaves the door open for considerable efficiency gains from other frontier labs that would be capable of serving larger inference demand within their current infrastructure.”

NVDA is a Buy under $125 for a $180 first target.

Palantir (PLTR – $87.39) partnered with R1, an industry leader in revenue cycle management (RCM), to launch R37, an advanced AI lab dedicated to revolutionizing healthcare financial performance. The lab will use R1’s 20 years of expertise in payer-provider dynamics to develop intelligent automation solutions for healthcare reimbursement. Palantir said administrative costs now account for more than 40% of US hospital expenses, with over $160 billion spent annually on RCM. Hospitals need AI-native solutions to deal effectively with complex payer relationships. PLTR is a Buy under $100 for a $150 target.

PayPal Holdings (PYPL – $69.67) EVP and General Manager of Large Enterprise & Merchant Platform Frank Keller presented at the BofA Electronic Payments Symposium (AUDIO HERE and TRANSCRIPT HERE). He is one of the key executives in accelerating branded checkout from its current 6% growth rate to 10% in 2027. He said they are removing impediments to checking out with PayPal by replacing passwords with biometrics and reducing latency by moving the process to the cloud. They’ve embedded Buy Now Pay Later into the checkout process, increased personalization, and streamlined the user interface, especially on mobile.

The complete new checkout process started in the US. Next will be Europe and then it will be available to 80% of their global volume by 2027, up from 12% today.

Pay With Venmo is an important part of the branded growth acceleration. It did $8 billion of volume in 2024 and is expected to grow at a 40% rate through 2027, roughly tripling. It is primarily mobile and retailers like quick service restaurants are especially interested in those younger customers.

This is the second recent conference where CEO Alex Criss has handed off the presentation duties to another member of management, showcasing his new team. PYPL is a Buy under $68 for a double in three years.

SoftBank (SFTBY – $26.10) is paying $6.5 billion to acquire Ampere Computing, a semiconductor design company focused on high-performance, energy efficient, sustainable AI compute based on the ARM compute platform. SoftBank is the majority owner of ARM. The deal will close in the second half of 2025. SFTBY is a Buy under $25 for a first target of $50 in the next two years.

Small Tech

PagerDuty (PD – $18.85) got Federal Risk and Authorization Management Program (FedRAMP) authorization for their Operations Cloud. FedRAMP provides a standardized approach to security assessment, authorization, and continuous monitoring for cloud services used by federal agencies. With authorization, PagerDuty can deliver their secure digital operations management solution to government agencies. PD is a Buy up to $30 for a 2- to 5-year hold as their digital operations management Software-As-A-Service gains market share.
Primary Risk: Digital operations management is a competitive area.

QuickLogic (QUIK – $5.68) amended its Heritage Bank $20 million credit facility to extend the maturity date from December 31, 2025 to December 31, 2026. QUIK is a Buy up to $10 for my $40 target as their earnings repeatedly surprise Wall Street.
Primary Risk: Customers’ product introductions and associated royalties are unpredictable.

Redwire (RDW – $11.29) CFO Jonathan Baliff presented at the Roth Conference (AUDIO HERE). He said government is about 85% of their revenues, either directly or through prime contractors. They are a picks and shovels company, providing subsystems to space projects.

He said defense is the fastest swim lane in the space market, so they acquired Edge Autonomy to have technology that goes from drones to deep space rocket components. Europe knows they are behind the curve and are increasing their budgets, which makes Germany-based Edge Autonomy extra valuable. They’ll publish combined financial data shortly in the proxy for the shareholder vote and expect the acquisition to close in the June quarter. RDW is a Buy under $18 for a $36 first target as space exploration grows.
Primary Risk: A new competitor emerges.

Rocket Lab USA (RKLB – $18.53) successfully launched their 62^nd Electron rocket, the fourth launch in 2025, this one to put the final five Kinéis satellites in orbit. Rocket Lab deployed the whole constellation of 25 satellites in less than a year, so Kinéis can start marketing their service. That’s unheard of in the industry – it previously took years to do that.

The company presented at both the Roth Conference (AUDIO HERE) and the BofA Global Industrials Conference (AUDIO HERE and TRANSCRIPT HERE). At BofA, the presentation was not by CFO Adam Spice, but by Stephen Ananias, VP: Finance, who isn’t listed on Rocket Lab’s management page. He said the schedule for Neutron is three separate workstreams: the Archimedes engine, the composite structures, and the required infrastructure.

Archimedes is continuing through its tests and they are building a second test stand to be sure they stay on schedule for a first launch in the second half of this year. The composite structures rely on outsourcing some components because the lead time on getting some of the required equipment is one to two years. Eventually, Rocket Lab will build all the components in-house. For now, their engineers are working closely with the suppliers to stay on schedule. That is the most challenging workstream.

The infrastructure – Launch Complex 3 in Virginia – has progressed rapidly and they will hold a grand opening in the May/June timeframe.

While Electron had to provide pricing discounts for its early launches because it was an untested vehicle, Neutron will not. Neutron pulls enough technology and know-how from Electron to find early customers without discounting. The company expects test launches this year, three commercial launches in 2026, and five in 2027.

The backlog for Electron launches is nearly $400 million, with about half scheduled for the next 12 months. The average contract is over $8 million per launch. RKLB is a Buy up to $13 for my $30+ target as low earth orbit satellites and space exploration grow.
Primary Risk: A new competitor emerges.

Biotech MegaShift

If you can afford it – and it would not be too big a position in your portfolio – putting $2,000 into each of these speculative biotechs might be a good way to start. Buying these out-of-favor, fallen, or forgotten companies that can get important products through the FDA at very low market capitalizations seems like a good strategy to me.

Risks

Development-stage biotechs are subject to investor sentiment swings from wildly optimistic to excessively pessimistic – mostly the latter recently. After the Primary Risk for each company, I’ve added the clinical stage of their lead product, the probable time of their first FDA approval, and the probable time of their next financing.

As always, you need to think about an appropriate position size. You could buy a full position upfront and then just hold on, or buy some upfront and leave room to add more on the inevitable financings, transient clinical trial setbacks, and the like.

Akebia Therapeutics (AKBA- $2.04) stock rose steadily until today, when it crashed 28.2% due to a $50 million equity offering at a big discount – $2.00 a share. What happened?

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The pattern looks to me like a typical new position for a large organization. When I was managing institutional money, the traders always wanted to know how fast I wanted them to move in establishing a new position. Typically, they would clean up the overhang the first day (see March 14 – probably at an average price around $2.00 a share), and then buy one-third of the volume each day until the position was complete. Those one-third buys would explain Monday and Tuesday’s trading.

But on Wednesday, the trend-followers caught on and the stock price began to get away from them. The institution would only have a small amount of its desired position. Either the trader or an investment banker could go to the company and see if they had any interest in doing a large direct sale at $2.00. The institution gets its position at its price and puts more money into the company’s coffers instead of some random day trader’s account. It’s a win-win.

If that is what happened, we’ll probably see a new beneficial interest filing with the SEC shortly, as well as a steady recovery in the stock’s price.

As I wrote on the Comments board, a reasonable path to the company’s forecast of $10 million to $11 million in sales in the March quarter is $1.7 million in January, increasing $1.7 million every month. That would get you to $10.2 million in the March quarter (to be announced in May) and $25.5 million in the June quarter. The cadence probably will pick up then as the big dialysis providers really ramp up.

If it didn’t pick up from the $1.7 million monthly rate, September quarter Vafseo sales would be $40.8 million and December $56.1 million, but I think those numbers are way too low. That’s what Wall Street is looking at today.

Amgen also is looking, of course. I think they’ll make a bid around $10 a share this year. Buy AKBA up to $2 for the Vafseo launches in the EU, UK, and US.
Primary Risk: Vafseo doesn’t sell in the US.
   Clinical stage of lead product: Approved
   Probable time of next approval: 2026
   Probable time of next financing: Never

Compass Pathways (CMPS – $2.97) presented at the Stifel Virtual CNS Forum (ZOOM HERE). The CMPS-005 Phase 3 trial six-week data will be released towards the end of the June quarter. Looking at the potential market for COMP-360, they are encouraged that Spravato, the ketamine drug, is now a blockbuster.

Management said recruitment in the COMP-006 Phase 3 trial is on schedule in the US and rest of world, especially Europe. They are on track to release 26-week data in the second half of 2026 and expect to narrow that window down as they progress. CMPS is a Buy under $20 for a very long-term hold to a 10x.
Primary Risk: Their drugs fail in the clinic.
   Clinical stage of lead product: Phase 3
   Probable time of first FDA approval: 2027
   Probable time of next financing: Late 2025

Inovio (INO – $1.94) announced a December quarter loss of $19.4 million or 65¢ a share. On the conference call (AUDIO & SLIDES HERE and TRANSCRIPT HERE), CEO Jacqueline Shea said they have resolved the Cellectra manufacturing issue and the FDA will complete device verification testing by the end of June.

Inovio will update their Investigational New Drug filing for INO-3107 and do the required confirmatory trial. It needs only 100 patients at 20 sites and should enroll quickly. They’ll start a rolling Biologics Licensing Application in midyear and request priority review. They will complete submission in the second half of the year and get FDA acceptance of the filing by yearend. I expect approval in the first half of 2026.

The company has a strategy to build a big company:

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Inovio finished the year with no debt and $94.1 million in cash, just enough to get through 2025. They’ll probably use their At-The-Market facility to get to FDA approval. INO is a Buy under $14 for a very long-term hold.
Primary Risk: Their drugs fail in the clinic.
   Clinical stage of lead product: Phase 3
   Probable time of first FDA approval: Early 2026
   Probable time of next financing:After FDA approval in 2026

ScyNexis (SCYX – $1.04) will restart the MARIO trial in the June quarter after the FDA lifts the clinical hold in the next few weeks. Buy SCYX under $2.50 for a first target price of $20 after ibrexafungerp is approved for hospital use and a buyout at $50.
Primary Risk: Ibrexafungerp fails to sell.
   Clinical stage of lead product: Approved
   Probable time of next FDA approval: 2025
   Probable time of next financing: Never

Inflation MegaShift

Gold ($3,053.00) crossed $3,000 an ounce for the first time in history. As Stephen McBride of RiskHedge pointed out, while the S&P 500 is down 3.7% in 2025, gold is up 16.1%. In fact, gold has outperformed US stocks three of the last five calendar years, even with US stocks in a historic bull market for most of that time.

Unlike stocks, gold doesn’t require the economy to keep humming to rise in value. Unlike government bonds, gold doesn’t require politicians to act long-term prudent to hold its value. And unlike the US dollar—which has lost 25% of its value since 2020—gold has always appreciated over the long term. In other words, gold’s value is independent. It doesn’t require anyone keeping promises. It and bitcoin are the only assets like this.

Gold just hit a new record high at $3,053, so you’d think the interest in gold mining stocks would be through the roof, right? But no! The fact of the matter is that nobody cares about gold stocks. As the Google Trends for gold mining stocks shows, interest is far below the five-year high.

Click for larger graphic h/t @minenergybiz

The fractal dimension is very close to signaling an end to this very enjoyable uptrend. Gold often extends a trend for a while, but this one is on thin ice. Remember that the inevitable consolidation can be by the passage of time, basically churning around at these levels, or by some sharp, scary price drops – or by a mixture of both. Either way, the odds are the next trend is upward and onward.

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Cryptocurrencies

Cryptocurrencies are a diversifying asset that offer a unique opportunity to make (or lose!) a lot of money quickly.

Bitcoin (BTC-USD on Yahoo – $84,511.81) almost hit its 50-week moving average last week, so a multi-week low may be in. But according to @CyclesFan, in April we enter the most seasonally bearish period of the last four years: April-June. We had a mini-bear market in 2021, a bear market in 2022, and sizable corrections in 2023 and 2024.

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BTC-USD, ETH-USD, IBIT, and ETHA are Strong Buys.
Primary Risk: Bitcoin falls due to over-regulation or is surpassed by another cryptocurrency.

iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT- $47.85) remains the cheapest and easiest way to buy bitcoin. IBIT is a Buy for the 2028, 2032, and 2036 halvings.
Primary Risk:Bitcoin falls due to over-regulation or is surpassed by another cryptocurrency.

Ethereum (ETH-USD on Yahoo – $1,980.10) positioning has gotten extremely bearish These levels have been seen six times since 2023. Each time, this led to a market bottom either immediately or after a period of consolidation.

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ETH-USD is a Buy.
Primary Risk: Bitcoin extensions outperform Ethereum.

iShares Ethereum Trust (ETHA- $14.93) remains the cheapest and easiest way to buy ethereum. ETHA is a Buy for the coming explosion in token-funded start-ups.
Primary Risk:Ethereum falls due to over-regulation or is surpassed by another cryptocurrency.

Commodities

Oil – $68.30

President Trump posted: “The hundreds of attacks being made by Houthi, the sinister mobsters and thugs based in Yemen, who are hated by the Yemeni people, all emanate from, and are created by, IRAN.” This is setting the stage for an attack on Iran, possibly by Israel. Right now, Iran is exporting at close to 2018 rates. It seems pretty likely to me that Iranian oil exports will be close to zero in six months.

Click for larger graphic h/t @HFI_Research

In historical terms, oil is very cheap. Bloomberg’s Javier Blas wrote: “Account for cumulative inflation, and oil, in real terms, is at the same level as it was 25 years ago – and below the level of 1982 when Ronald Reagan was president.”

Click for larger graphic h/t @JavierBlas

Every Wall Street model show a maximum short level by hedge funds and Commodity Trading Advisors on Brent crude. Even a slight catalyst from a headline could trigger a massive short squeeze.

Click for larger graphic h/t @CRUDEOIL231

I remain convinced that the low price of oil is due to paper oil shorts, while in the real world production is slowing while demand keeps growing. An abrupt $10 to $20 a barrel increase in the price of oil lies just ahead.

The July 2026 Crude Oil Futures (CLN26.NYM – no trades – June was $64.49) are a Buy under $70 for a $200+ target. Only buy futures for all cash; do not use margin.

The United States 12 Month Oil Fund, LP (USL – $36.94) is a Buy under $40 for a $100+ target.

Vermilion Energy (VET – $8.26) is a Buy under $11 for a target price of $24 or more.
Primary Risk: Oil prices fall.

Energy Fuels (UUUU – $4.35) has held up pretty well and it looks like we’re at a bottom in uranium.

Click for larger graphic h/t @marketplunger1

UUUU is a buy under $8 for a $30 target.
Primary Risk: Uranium prices fall.

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RIP Perry Miller (aka Jesse Colin Young)

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Click for larger graphic h/t @dailychartbook & Torsten Sløk, Apollo Chief Economist

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Your reading Ernest Hemingway On Writing Editor,

Michael Murphy CFA
Founding Editor
New World Investor

All Recommendations

Priced 3/20/25. Check out the complete Portfolio page HERE.

Buys
These are the stocks everyone needs to own because transformative events are happening over the next year or two, and I expect to hold them long-term.

Tech Dominators
  Corning (GLW – $48.67) – Buy under $33, target price $60
  Gilead Sciences (GILD – $105.87) – Buy under $90, first target price $120
  Meta (META – $586.00) – Buy under $655 for a long-term hold
  Micron Technology (MU – $103.00) – Buy under $102, first target price $140
  Nvidia (NVDA – $118.53) – Buy under $125, first target price $180
  Onsemi (ON – $43.20) – Buy under $60, first target price $100
  Palantir (PLTR – $87.39) – Buy under $100, target price $150
  PayPal (PYPL – $69.67) – Buy under $68, target price $136
  Snap (SNAP – $9.23) – Buy under $11, target price $17+
  SoftBank (SFTBY – $26.10) – Buy under $25, target price $50

Small Tech
  Enovix (ENVX – $7.96) – Buy under $20; 4-year hold to $100+
  First Trust NASDAQ Cybersecurity ETF (CIBR – $65.08) – Buy under $60; 3- to 5-year hold
  PagerDuty (PD – $18.85) – Buy under $30; 2- to 5-year hold
  QuickLogic (QUIK – $5.68) – Buy under $10, target price $40
  Redwire (RDW – $11.29 – Buy under $18, first target price $36
  Rocket Lab (RKLB – $18.53) – Buy under $13, target price $30+

$20-for-$1 Biotech
  AbCellera Biologics (ABCL – $2.38) – Buy under $6, target $30+
  Akebia Biotherapeutics (AKBA – $2.04) – Buy under $2, target $20
  Compass Pathways (CMPS – $2.97) – Buy under $20, hold a long time for a 10x return
  Editas Medicines (EDIT – $1.37 – Buy under $6 for a double in 12 months and a long-term hold to much higher prices
  Inovio (INO – $1.94) – Buy under $14, hold a long time
  Medicenna (MDNAF – $0.70) – Buy under $3, first target $20, then maybe $40
  ScyNexis (SCYX – $1.04) – Buy under $3, target price $20, then $50

Inflation
  A Short-Sale or REO House – ($415,400) – Hold
  Bag of Junk Silver – ($34.10) – hold through silver bull market
  Sprott Gold Miners ETF (SGDM – $37.00) – Buy under $28, target price $50
  Sprott Junior Gold Miners ETF (SGDJ – $42.58) – Buy under $39, target price $100
  Sprott Physical Gold and Silver Trust (CEF – $27.92) – Buy under $18, target price $30
  Global X Silver Miners ETF (SIL – $40.12) – Buy under $30, target price $50
  Coeur Mining (CDE – $6.42) – Buy under $5, target price $20
  Dakota Gold (DC – $3.07) – Buy under $2.50, target price $6
  First Majestic Mining (AG – $7.06) – Buy under $11, next target price $23
  Paramount Gold Nevada (PZG – $0.38) – Buy under $1, first target price $10
  Sandstorm Gold (SAND – $6.86) – Buy under $10, target price $25
  Sprott Inc. (SII – $45.18) – Buy under $40, target price $70

Cryptocurrencies
  Bitcoin (BTC-USD – $84,511.81) – Buy
  iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT – $47.85) – Buy
  Ethereum (ETH-USD – $1,972.05)– Buy
  iShares Ethereum Trust (ETHA- $14.93) – Buy

Commodities
  Crude Oil Futures – July 2026 (CLN26.NYM – no trades- June closed at $64.49) – Buy under $70; $200+ target
  United States 12 Month Oil Fund, LP (USL – $36.94) – Buy under $40; $100+ target
  Vermilion Energy (VET – $8.26) – Buy under $11; $24 target
  Energy Fuels (UUUU – $4.35) – Buy under $8; $30 target
  EQT (EQT – $53.73) – Buy under $35; $70 first target
  Freeport McMoRan (FCX – $40.70) – Buy under $44; $65 target within two years

Holds
These are holds but not sells – yet. They could get moved back to one of the buy categories if their prices drop or outlook improves, or they could become sell recommendations in the future.
  Apple Computer (AAPL – $214.10) – Expect to move back to Buy under $175 for new iPhones
  Fastly (FSLY – $7.00) – Hold for March quarter results
  TG Therapeutics (TGTX – $41.89) – Hold for buyout at $40+

Publisher: GwynRose LLC, 5348 Vegas Drive, Suite 868, Las Vegas, NV 89108

New World Investor does not act as a personal investment adviser or advocate the purchase or sale of any security or investment for any specific individual. The recommendations and analysis presented to members are for the exclusive use of members. Members should be aware that investment markets have inherent risks and there can be no guarantee of future profits. Likewise, past performance does not assure future results. Recommendations are subject to change at any time. Nothing in this presentation should be considered personalized investment advice. No communication to you by Michael Murphy or any of our employees or contractors should be deemed as personalized investment advice.

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