Dear New World Investor:

Well, that got weird in a hurry. Iran striking its regional neighbors was not on my dance card, and obviously is a massively escalation. It puts a lot of oil infrastructure at risk and makes private insurance on ships going through the Strait of Hormuz uneconomic. President Trump’s US Navy escorts won’t work – there are too many ships, it’s too costly, and some US sailors are going to die. His insurance plan won’t work, either, unless US taxpayers are happy subsidizing losses on oil shipments destined for other countries. Without decisive regime change soon, it’s reasonable to expect a substantial, enduring risk premium in the price of oil, especially with the “twilight of shale” and rapid OPEC spare capacity exhaustion happening in real-time.

For US stocks, this is coinciding with a massive rotation out of technology into hard assets like energy. In other words, 32% of the S&P500 is now chasing less than 6%. Many of the big tech companies have been hammered so hard that they are now trading at the same multiples as staid, boring old consumer staples choices. That’s only happened three times in the past seven years: COVID, the 2022 bear market, and Liberation Day. Each of those preceded another running of the bulls.

When they zig, we zag. This gives us an opportunity to buy the AI winners like Palantir at a discount, move Nvidia from Hold back to Buy, and maybe even snag Infleqtion (INFQ), the real quantum computing winner, at mid-single digits.

According to FactSet, about 96% of S&P 500 companies have reported December quarter results. 75% have beaten on revenue and 75% have beaten on earnings. The year-over-year earnings growth rate is 14.2%, marking the 5^th consecutive quarter of double-digit earnings growth for the Index. Business is good.

Market Outlook

I know it felt worse, but the S&P 500 lost just 0.5% over the last two weeks. The Index is now down 0.2% year-to-date. The Nasdaq Composite gained 0.3% (surprise!) but is still down 2.1% for the year. The SPDR S&P Biotech Exchange-Traded Fund (XBI) fell 2.2% even though war, high oil prices, and inflation have zero impact on biotech’s value. It is still up 1.6% year-to-date. The small-cap Russell 2000 dropped 3.0% and is up 4.2% in 2026.

Top 5

Changes this week: Added NVDA, PLTR, and VET to Near-Term

Near-Term – chronological order
AKBA Akebia Therapeutics – Vafseo launch
BTC-USD Bitcoin – rebound from sell-off
ETH-USD Ethereum – rebound from sell-off
EQT EQT – natural gas price rebound
USL United States 12 Month Oil Fund, LP – crude should rise quickly
VET Vermilion Energy – Oil + European natural gas assets
NVDA Nvidia – half a trillion dollars in orders
PLTR Palantir – MAVEN software vital to Iran war

Long-Term – alphabetical order
ABCL AbCelllera – Will become a huge pharma royalty company
UUUU Energy Focus – Domestic uranium supplier
EQT EQT – largest US natural gas company
IBIT iShares Bitcoin Trust – Bitcoin is headed for $150,000
META Meta – a (the?) leader in the metaverse
PLTR Palantir – a (the?) leader in AI applications software
SCYX ScyNexis –First new antifungal in 20 years

Economy

The Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow model for the March quarter is estimating 3.0% growth. It’s another strong quarter and even the Blue Chips are getting more enthusiastic.

Click for larger graphic

Coming Events
All times below are ET, and most presentations and slides are archived on the companies’ websites so you can listen to them.

Friday, March 6
February payrolls – 8:30am – +60,000 expected

Sunday, March 8
Daylight Savings Time – 2:00am your local time

Monday, March 9
AKBA – Akebia – 8:00am – Leerink Partners Global Healthcare Conference

Tuesday, March 10
PYPL – PayPal – 9:30am – Wolfe Fintech Forum
GILD – Gilead Sciences – 11:20am – Leerink Partners Global Healthcare Conference
Short Interest – After the close
INO – Inovio – 1:40pm – Citizens Life Sciences Conference

Wednesday, March 11
Consumer Price Index – 8:30am
GILD – Gilead Sciences – 11:00am – Barclays Global Healthcare Conference

Thursday, March 12
EDIT – Editas – 8:00am – Barclays Global Healthcare Conference
QUIK – QuickLogic – 10:30am – GOMACTech Conference
PD – PagerDuty – 5:00pm – Earnings conference call

Friday, March 13
December quarter GDP – 8:30am – Second estimate: I expect an increase.

Tuesday, March 17
Saint Patrick’s Day!

ABCL – AbCellera – 9:00am – KeyBanc Healthcare Forum

Wednesday, March 18
Fed Meeting – 2:00pm press release; 2:30pm press conference

Friday, March 20
Spring Equinox – 3:45pm

Big Tech: The Biotech & Digital Dominators MegaShift
There are at least four ways to make money in the stocks of these large, growing, dominant companies. You can:
* * Buy a stock and hold it
* * Buy a stock and write a call option against it
* * With a Level IV options account, write an out-of-the-money put option
* * With a Level IV options account, write an out-of-the-money put option and use part of the premium to buy an out-of-the-money call option

Apple (AAPL – $260.29) is carefully going down market to lure in more customers for Services. They introduced the iPhone 17e with a starting price of $599 with 256GB of storage, double the 16e’s 128GB. That’s $200 less than the base iPhone 17, which costs $799.

Even better, they unveiled the MacBook Neo, their long-rumored foray into the low-cost computer market. Starting at $599, the Neo comes in four colors, including a very splashy yellow-green Citrus. It is a much more affordable option for students than the recently refreshed $1,099 MacBook Air.

The Neo has a 13-inch screen, a bit smaller than the standard MacBook Air’s 13.6-inch display. It uses Apple’s A18 Pro processor, similar to the chip that powers the iPhone 16 Pro and 16 Pro Max. Because this is an entry-level offering, the Neo comes with 8GB of memory, rather than 16GB like the standard Air. It comes with 256GB of storage, with a 512GB option for an extra $100. That upgrade also gets you Apple’s Touch ID fingerprint sensor for unlocking the laptop and making payments via Apple Pay.
Apple debuted a host of other hardware earlier this week, including the above-mentioned iPhone 17e, new iPad Airs, upgraded MacBook Airs and MacBook Pros, and their new M5 Pro and M5 Max chips. The MacBook Air, Apple’s volume seller, now starts at $1,099, a $100 price increase over last year’s model, but it comes with more storage, 512GB rather than 256GB. Memory starts at 16GB and can be upgraded to as much as 32GB.

The Pros are costly. The base MacBook Pro 14-inch with a standard M5 chip starts at $1,699, up from $1,599 last year. Jump to the M5 Pro, and you’ll pay $2,199. The M5 Max version starts at $3,599. Opt for a MacBook Pro 16-inch with all the bells and whistles, and you’ll end up paying $7,349. Apple’s MacBook segment was its fourth-largest business in 2025, bringing in $33.7 billion. AAPL is a Buy under $205.

Gilead Sciences (GILD – $145.14) presented at the TD Cowen Health Care Conference (VIDEO HERE and TRANSCRIPT HERE). CCO Johanna Mercier said they acquired their anito-cell collaborator, Arcellx (ACLX). for $7.8 billion to get full control of anito-cell and eliminate the profit-sharing, milestones, and royalties in the collaboration contract. The FDA has accepted the anito-cel Biologics Licensing Application for the treatment of adult patients with relapsed/refractory multiple myeloma. GILD is a Long-Term Buy under $115 for a first target of $150.

Meta Platforms (META – $660.57) presented at the Morgan Stanley Technology, Media & Telecom Conference (VIDEO HERE and TRANSCRIPT HERE). CFO Susan Li discussed their multi-year, multi-generational deal to deploy up to six gigawatts of AMD Instinct GPUs, just days after committing to millions of Nvidia processors. Six gigawatts is enough to power 4 to 6 million homes, or use all the electricity from three Hoover Dams or 5-6 big nuclear plants running flat out, not to mention the associated cooling, networking, etc. Meta’s total buildout could equal an entire electric grid all by itself. META is a Buy under $705 for a long-term hold.

Nvidia (NVDA – $183.34) surprised no one who reads this newsletter, I hope, by reporting a double beat for their January fourth quarter and then guiding for a double beat on the April first quarter – which, of course, they will beat again. Revenues grew 73.2% from last year to a record $68.13 billion, above the consensus expectation for $66.23 billion. Most of that was record Data Center revenue of $62.3 billion, up 22% from the October quarter and 75% from last year.

Click for larger graphic h/t Seeking Alpha

Here is a complete list of companies at a revenue run rate of $250 billion or more growing faster than 70% a year:

Nvidia (NVDA)

They had pro forma earnings of $1.62 a share, beating the $1.54 estimate. On the conference call (CALL HERE and SLIDES HERE and TRANSCRIPT HERE), CEO Jensen Huang said: “Computing demand is growing exponentially — the agentic AI inflection point has arrived. Grace Blackwell with NVLink is the king of inference today — delivering an order-of-magnitude lower cost per token — and Vera Rubin will extend that leadership even further. Enterprise adoption of agents is skyrocketing. Our customers are racing to invest in AI compute — the factories powering the AI industrial revolution and their future growth.”

Nvidia has about $500 billion in orders to be shipped for future revenue. Can orders be canceled? Absolutely. Will they be canceled? Absolutely not. Jensen guided the April quarter to $78.0 billion of revenue, +-2%. The consensus was at $72.03 billion.

Going into the earnings report, NVDA was selling for less than 24x estimated forward earnings, not far from its lowest price/earnings multiple in five years. That’s far below its five-year average of roughly 38x and near the low end of its peers:

Click for larger graphic h/t EvercoreISI via Yahoo Finance

Nvidia’s weight in the S&P 500 Index is 7.4%, higher than allowed by the charters of many fund managers. So in order to protect retail investors from getting rich (end sarcasm), there is a headwind to its P/E ratio caused by fund managers obligated to lower their stakes in the stock as it appreciates faster than the market. Sell your winners and let your losers run much?

Jensen also presented at the Morgan Stanley Technology, Media & Telecom Conference (VIDEO HERE and TRANSCRIPT HERE).

When asked about Nvidia’s stock price, Jensen said: “You know, I really care about our shareholders. We just had the earnings of earnings in the history of earnings. I think somebody actually told me this might be the single best print in the history of humanity. Anyways, we had a very good quarter. Listen, you can’t hold the stock back. You can’t hold it back. The reason for that is simple: compute equals revenues for company. In the future, every single company will need compute for revenues. Compute translates to intelligence which translates to your digital workforce which translates to your revenues. Compute equals GDP. Every country needs it. I know that for certain. I also know that we are at the beginning of this journey.”

Jensen isn’t playing around. You can tell he’s annoyed that the market isn’t realizing how special the recent earnings were. You can also tell he is more determined than ever to win. After the recent decline, I’m moving NVDA back to a Buy, this time with a $200 limit for a long-term hold.

Onsemi (ON – $60.85) presented at the Morgan Stanley Technology, Media & Telecom Conference (VIDEO HERE and TRANSCRIPT HERE). CEO Hassane El-Khoury said their end markets are recovering.

In fact, I was glad to hear that things are good enough that they have scheduled a Financial Analyst Day in New York City. But then he said the date: September 16. I think business will be booming by then. ON is a Buy under $60 for a $130 first target.

Palantir (PLTR – $152.67) was acknowledged in the Washington Post: “The military’s Maven Smart System, which is built by data mining company Palantir, is generating insights from an astonishing amount of classified data from satellites, surveillance, and other intelligence, helping provide real-time targeting and target prioritization to military operations in Iran, according to three people familiar with the system.”

Anyone trying to analyze Palantir without understanding how important Maven is to the structure and backbone of the government has failed to actually analyze this company. It has become one of the core moats and a reason why Palantir’s software can be the de facto operating system of the US and NATO. PLTR is a Buy under $160 for a $200 first target.

PayPal Holdings (PYPL – $47.64) presents next Tuesday at the Wolfe Fintech Forum. The stock rallied on reports that fintech Stripe (STRIP) was interested in buying some or all of the company. I have heard that PayPal has been preparing for the possibility of an unwanted takeover offer.

The company has 430 million accounts, and in today’s fintech landscape, where wallets are one of the hottest areas, such scale is very attractive. With an enterprise value of around $40 billion, a healthy balance sheet, and roughly $6 billion in annual free cash flow, PayPal trades at low multiples that could also draw interest from private equity. They could potentially unlock more value by breaking the company into parts. PayPal owns attractive assets, such as its BNPL business, Braintree, and Venmo. A spinoff of Venmo, a growing business and a leader in its category, could make sense and might even be worth the majority of PayPal’s current market cap on its own. PYPL is a Buy under $50 for a triple in three years.

Snap (SNAP – $5.34) said that their direct revenue category – the portfolio of products where Snapchatters support the platform directly – has exceeded a $1 billion annualized revenue run rate. Their global subscription community has now surpassed 25 million members.

Since launching in late 2022, Snapchat+ has become one of the fastest-growing consumer subscription services globally, with subscriber growth every quarter. SNAP is a Buy under $11 for a $17+ target.

SoftBank (SFTBY – $11.93) subsidiary PayPay has started its initial public offering road show. SoftBank is selling 23.9 million of the 55 million shares. They’ll price between $17 and $20, and I expect a rapid run-up in the stock that will be reflected in SoftBank’s price. As I previously posted, Goldman Sachs, J.P. Morgan, Mizuho Securities, and Morgan Stanley are the joint book-running managers. SFTBY is a Buy under $35 for a first target of $50 and then higher as the discount to hard book value disappears.

Small Tech

Enovix (ENVX – $5.05) reported December quarter revenues up 16.1% from last year to a record $11.26 million, comfortably beating the $10.25 million estimate and the top end of their guidance range at $10.5 million. The pro forma loss of 14¢ a share was less than the 17¢ loss Wall Street expected.

On the conference call (CALL HERE and SLIDES HERE and FINANCIAL SUPPLEMENT HERE and TRANSCRIPT HERE), CEO Raj Talluri guided the March quarter to revenue between $6.5 million and $7.5 million with a pro forma loss of 14¢ to 18¢.

Raj had some negative news, although I think it will prove to be minor. He said: “Our top priority remains completing smartphone qualification and moving into commercial production [that’s good]. During the fourth quarter, customer evaluation samples met energy density, fast-charge and safety requirements [that’s also good], and cycle-life performance improved toward customer-defined qualification targets under established protocols [‘improved toward’ – that’s not so good].”

He said cycle-life testing under high power conditions is the key gating requirement to launch their first smartphone battery, and they are “executing multiple defined pathways with our lead customer to achieve qualification targets.” In other words, they are trying everything to fix the problem.

The reason I think this problem will prove to be minor is that it is an engineering problem, not a basic design problem, and engineering problems are almost always solvable. Raj said successful completion under any of the pathways will enable customer qualification and follow-on commercial shipments.

He also pointed out that smart glasses place even greater emphasis on volumetric energy density due to smaller battery footprints and continuous-on AI workloads, where Enovix shines, and – most importantly – smart glasses manufacturers typically require lower cycle-life thresholds for qualification than smartphone manufacturers. He said their AI-1 platform already meets or exceeds the key technical requirements for multiple smart eyewear applications, so this looks like an early commercialization opportunity. He added that smart eyewear platforms are progressing toward production readiness, and they have begun receiving initial high-volume production demand – Raj said that is a purchase order – from their lead customer as its devices move toward commercial launch.

Raj expects to ship their first smart glasses batteries in the second half of this year and thinks the smart eyewear battery total available market could exceed $400 million a year by 2030. I will keep a close eye on the cycle-life problem in smartphones. It wouldn’t surprise me if the first commercial use of Enovix batteries is in smart glasses from Meta or Apple instead of a smartphone. There’s also a big drone opportunity.

Click for larger graphic

The company finished the quarter with $621 million in cash. ENVX is a Buy up to $20 for a 4-year hold to $100+ as their BrakeFlow lithium-ion battery takes market share.
Primary Risk: A new competitor invents a better battery.

Fastly (FSLY – $20.44) presented at the Raymond James Institutional Investors Conference (AUDIO HERE), CFO Rich Wong pretty much repeated the recent earning call. They are targeting 14% revenue growth this year thanks to edge AI momentum, with record profit margins. FSLY is a Buy under $10 for a 3- to 5-year hold to $50+.
Primary Risk:Content and applications delivery networks are a competitive area.

PagerDuty (PD – $7.76) reports January quarter results next Thursday after the close. Analysts expect revenues to be up just 1.3% from last year to $122.96 million, with 25¢ earnings per share. That’s a low bar. PD is a Buy up to $30 for a 2- to 5-year hold as their digital operations management Software-As-A-Service gains market share.
Primary Risk: Digital operations management is a competitive area.

QuickLogic (QUIK – $8.78) reported December quarter revenues down 34.6% from last year to $3.73 million, slightly ahead of the $3.52 million consensus estimate. The pro forma loss of 17¢ per share was much worse than the -11¢ estimate. They took a large impairment charge on SensiML due to the standard accounting practice to impair the value of an asset held for sale for a year or longer.

On the conference call (CALL HERE and PREPARED REMARKS HEREand TRANSCRIPT HERE), CEO Brian Faith said that “certain contract delays over the course of the year resulted in much lower-than-expected 2025 revenue,” but emphasized that “we accomplished numerous tangible milestones that set the stage well for 2026 and beyond.”

Brian guided to a forecast for nearly 50% sequential revenue growth in the March quarter to $5.5 million ±10%. $4.5 million of that is new product revenue. They’ll still have a pro forma loss of 4¢ a share, but Brian said: “We believe we are well positioned to deliver between 50% and 100% revenue growth in 2026.”

He specifically mentioned large contracts for high-density eFPGA Hard IP cores in late-stage negotiation, and an accelerating storefront business model projected to drive meaningful revenue in 2026.

At the end of the year they had $18.8 million in liquidity, including $15.0 million from the credit facility. They will be cash flow positive in the second half of 2026. QUIK is a Buy up to $10 for my $40 target as their earnings repeatedly surprise Wall Street.
Primary Risk: Customers’ product introductions and associated royalties are unpredictable.

ARK Venture Fund (ARKVX – $49.74) now has 17.96% of its assets in SpaceX. The Starbase, Texas-based firm submitted its draft IPO registration to the SEC and is on track for a mid-June initial public offering valuing the company at $1.7 trillion. Only 3.3% of the stock will be in the float, so I don’t know what the S&P Index folks will do. ARKVX is a Buy for the SpaceX IPO.
Primary Risk: Cathie sells the stock before the IPO.

Biotech MegaShift

If you can afford it – and it would not be too big a position in your portfolio – putting $2,000 into each of these speculative biotechs might be a good way to start. Buying these out-of-favor, fallen, or forgotten companies that can get important products through the FDA at very low market capitalizations seems like a good strategy to me.

Risks

Development-stage biotechs are subject to investor sentiment swings from wildly optimistic to excessively pessimistic – mostly the latter recently. After the Primary Risk for each company, I’ve added the clinical stage of their lead product, the probable time of their first FDA approval, and the probable time of their next financing.

As always, you need to think about an appropriate position size. You could buy a full position upfront and then just hold on, or buy some upfront and leave room to add more on the inevitable financings, transient clinical trial setbacks, and the like.

AbCellera Biologics (ABCL- $3.59) reported a December fourth quarter loss of 49¢ a share, much better than the 64¢ loss Wall Street expected. Although it’s not important, revenues of $75.1 million more than doubled the $36.29 million estimate. On the conference call (CALL HERE and SLIDES HERE and CALL SUMMARY HERE and TRANSCRIPT HERE), CEO Carl Hansen said they have two programs in the clinic, two programs in IND/CTA-enabling activities, and over 20 programs in discovery.

Click for larger graphic

We’ll get the ABCL635 Phase 2 menopausal vasomotor symptoms (VMS) top-line data in the September quarter, and they’ll start a Phase 2 trial of ABCL635 in oncology VMS
(hot flashes associated with cancer treatment) this year. We’ll get ABCL575 Phase 1 top-line data in the December quarter. ABCL688 and ABCL386 will get IND status and start Phase 1 trials in 2027.

19 of their 104 partnered programs with downstream milestones and royalties are already in the clinic and 29 more are progressing towards the clinic.

Click for larger graphic

They also discussed these results at the TD Cowen Health Care Conference (AUDIO HERE), and will be at the KeyBanc Healthcare Forum in two weeks. At TD Cowen, Senior Director, Strategic Finance & IR: Martin Hogan gave the standard corporate presentation. The company has over $700 million to execute their strategy, $560 million in cash and $140 million in unused government funding. Buy ABCL up to $6 for a long-term hold to $30 or more.
Primary Risk: Partnered and owned drugs fail in the clinic.
   Clinical stage of lead product: Partnered: Various Owned: Preclinical
   Probable time of next FDA approval: 2027-2028
   Probable time of next financing: 2026-2027 or never

Akebia Therapeutics (AKBA- $1.19) reported December quarter revenues up 23.9% from last year to $57.6 million, clobbering the $46.09 million consensus estimate. But the pro forma loss per share of 5¢ was a penny worse than the -4¢ estimate.

On the conference call, (CALL HERE and TRANSCRIPT HERE), CEO John Butler said total net product revenue hit $227 million for the year. Vafseo end user demand was flat at $12 million in the September quarter and $11 million in the December quarter as they transitioned to the in-center dosing regimen. John said they “absolutely expect and are seeing growth from that level” with “steady growth month-over-month, quarter-over-quarter as we start to penetrate deeper in terms of breadth and depth. The body of evidence is growing that supports the potential for Vafseo to become standard of care in what is a $1 billion U.S. market opportunity after the TDAPA period ends when we expect Vafseo will be priced roughly in parity with ESA pricing.”

During the quarter, approximately 800 prescribers wrote a prescription for Vafseo, 128 of whom were new prescribers.

Plans include an R&D Day on April 2 to discuss mid-stage assets such as praliciguat and AKB-097. The company plans to initiate a Phase I study in healthy volunteers of AKB-9090 in the first half of 2026. Then they’ll start a Phase II trial for praliciguat and a Phase II basket trial for AKB-097 in the second half of 2026.

John will try again at the Leerink Global Healthcare Conference on Monday. They ended the year with $183.8 million in cash, enough to carry them into 2028. Buy AKBA up to $4 for the Vafseo launches in the EU, UK, and US. I think GSK and/or Amgen will make a bid for the company.
Primary Risk: Vafseo doesn’t sell in the US.
   Clinical stage of lead product: Approved
   Probable time of next approval: 2026
   Probable time of next financing: Never

Compass Pathways (CMPS – $6.78) also presented at the TD Cowen Health Care Conference (AUDIO HERE). CEO Kabir Nath reviewed the recent very positive top-line data release.

35 million warrants, which were issued in January, 2025, were exercised for proceeds of approximately $200 million. Adding to the recent net proceeds of $141 million from their equity offering, they have enough cash to get into 2028. I don’t think they’ll ever do another offering. CMPS is a Buy under $10 for a very long-term hold to $200.
Primary Risk: Their drugs fail in the clinic.
   Clinical stage of lead product: Phase 3
   Probable time of first FDA approval: 2027
   Probable time of next financing: Never

Editas Medicine (EDIT – $1.90) was another presenter at the TD Cowen Health Care Conference (AUDIO HERE). CEO Gilmore O’Neill said they’ll have the first in-human data from their cholesterol-lowering in vivo gene therapy drug.

They’ll tell the story again at the Barclays Global Healthcare Conference next week. EDIT is a Buy under $6 for a double in 12 months and a long-term hold to much higher prices.
Primary Risk: Other companies’ gene-sequencing drugs fail in the clinic.
   Clinical stage of lead product: Partnered: Approved. Owned: Going into the clinic mid-2025.
   Probable time of next FDA approval: 2028
   Probable time of next financing: Late 2026 or never

Inovio (INO – $1.68) presented at the Oppenheimer Healthcare Life Sciences Conference (VIDEO HERE and TRANSCRIPT HERE). CEO Jacqueline Shea gave the standard presentation.

They entered into a clinical trial collaboration and supply agreement with Akeso to evaluate INO-5412, Inovio’s DNA immunotherapy candidate, in combination with cadonilimab, Akeso’s first-in-class PD-1/CTLA-4 bispecific antibody, for the potential treatment of glioblastoma (brain cancer). The combination therapy will be studied as a part of INSIGhT, an innovative Phase 2 adaptive platform trial sponsored by the Dana-Farber Cancer Institute and conducted with Mass General Brigham Cancer Care, which is designed to quickly and efficiently find new treatments for glioblastoma. Dosing in the combination therapy trial is expected to begin in the second half of 2026. INO is a Buy under $5 for a very long-term hold.
Primary Risk: Their drugs fail in the clinic.
   Clinical stage of lead product: Phase 3
   Probable time of first FDA approval: Mid-2026
   Probable time of next financing:After FDA approval in 2026

Medicenna (MDNAF – $0.60), speaking of glioblastoma, presented at the 7th Annual Glioblastoma Summit: Trailblazing Next-Generation Glioblastoma & Glioma Therapies (PRESENTATION HERE). If they could partner MDNA55 for a Phase 3 trial, the stock would jump. Buy MDNAF under $3 for a first target of $20.
Primary Risk: Their drugs fail in the clinic.
   Clinical stage of lead product: Entering Phase 3
   Probable time of first FDA approval: 2026
   Probable time of next financing: 2025

ScyNexis (SCYX – $0.79) reported a 2025 loss of 17¢ a share, after receiving a $24.8 million payment from GSK. They said: “GSK remains committed to the relaunch of Brexafemme, and following its relaunch, ScyNexis stands to receive up to $145.5 million in annual net sales milestones as well as royalties, net of payments to Merck, in the low to mid single digit range.”

They finished the quarter with $56.3 million in cash, which will carry them for more than two years. Buy SCYX under $2.50 for a target price of $20.
Primary Risk: Ibrexafungerp fails to sell.
   Clinical stage of lead product: Approved
   Probable time of next FDA approval: 2028
   Probable time of next financing: Never

TG Therapeutics (TGTX – $29.03) reported December quarter revenue up 78.0% from last year to $192.5 million, a skotch under the $193.34 million Wall Street estimate. GAAP earning per share of 14¢ badly missed the 35¢ estimate, which was out of date.

On the conference call (WEBCAST HERE and TRANSCRIPT HERE), CEO Mike Weiss guided the March quarter Briumvi sales to $185-$190 million, with 2026 sales of $825-$850 million. Obviously, he is expecting very strong quarter-to-quarter growth. Total 2026 revenues will be $875-$900 million.

Mike said: “We delivered approximately $616 million in total global revenue, the vast majority of which came from $594 million of BRIUMVI U.S. net sales, and we capped the year with a strong fourth quarter of $183 million. That represents approximately 92% year-over-year growth and 20% sequential growth from Q4 over Q3.”

He highlighted strong physician and patient confidence in Briumvi, supported by 6-year open-label extension data showing nearly 90% of patients free from 24-week confirmed disability progression.

The Phase III ENHANCE study, which consolidates Briumvi infusions into a single dose, has completed enrollment with top-line data expected midyear and a potential 2027 launch. The subcutaneous Briumvi program is targeting pivotal data later in 2026 or early 2027 for a potential 2028 launch. It could nearly double the addressable market opportunity.

The company completed their $100 million stock buyback program, so the Board authorized an additional $100 million buyback. Mike said: “At current levels, we view our shares as significantly undervalued, and we will not hesitate to act accordingly, including adding leverage to reduce our share count.”

They ended the year with more than $600 million in current assets, including $200 million in cash, $300 million in accounts receivable, and $140 million in inventory. Buy TGTX under $30 for a target price in a buyout of $40 or more.
Primary Risk: Briumvi, the MS drug, fails to sell.
   Clinical stage of lead product: Approved
   Probable time of next FDA approval: NM
   Probable time of next financing: Never

Inflation MegaShift

Gold ($5,083.90) shot up after the Iran war started, as it always does when there is geopolitical stress. The high was $5,405 last Monday. But the dollar also strengthened, which pressured precious metals prices. I think there’s good support at $5,000, although traders can always try to run the stop losses and shake out some weak hands and cheap metal.

Miners & Related

Coeur Mining (CDE – $22.63) presented at the BMO Capital Markets Global Metals, Mining & Critical Minerals Conference and, as usual only let us see the SLIDES HERE. I suppose I shouldn’t complain too much, since it was the now-familiar standard presentation focused on how great the New Gold acquisition was (and it was). But what if someone new to the story wanted to hear and see management? Arghhh. CDE is a Buy under $10 for a $20 target as gold goes higher.
Primary Risk: Prices of precious metals fall due to US dollar strength.

Dakota Gold (DC – $6.05) was at the BMO Global Metals, Mining & Critical Minerals Conference (VIDEO HERE and SLIDES HERE) and at PDAC – the big Prospectors & Developers Association of Canada annual meeting. They gave the standard presentation. DC is a Hold for a $6 target as gold goes higher.
Primary Risk: Robert Quartermain doesn’t find enough gold. Secondary risk: Prices of precious metals fall due to US dollar strength.

First Majestic (AG – $26.27) also was at the BMO Global Metals, Mining & Critical Minerals Conference and at PDAC. Would you like to know what they said? Me, too. Apparently, management doesn’t know that letting shareholders and analysts see your presentations is not only required under SEC Rule FD, but also creates a strong shareholder base. When it’s time to sell the precious metals – not quite yet – AG will be one of the first to go. But for now, I’m changing AG to a Hold.
Primary Risk: Prices of precious metals fall due to US dollar strength.

Royal Gold (RGLD – $276.47) presented at the BMO Global Metals, Mining and Critical Minerals Conference (WEBCAST HERE and TRANSCRIPT HERE) and at the Raymond James Institutional Investors Conference (WEBCAST HERE and TRANSCRIPT HERE). CEO Bill Heissenbuttel pretty much repeated February’s earnings call, describing 2025 as a transformational year for Royal Gold due to the Sandstorm Gold and Horizon Copper acquisitions.

Royal Gold now has the largest and most diversified portfolio of mining assets in the royalty sector. We just have to wait as their Price/Earnings multiple increases to match Wheaton Precious Metals (WPM) and Franco-Nevada (FNV). I am looking forward to the March 31 Investor Day. RGLD is a Buy under $180.
Primary Risk: Prices of precious metals fall due to US dollar strength.

Cryptocurrencies

Cryptocurrencies are a diversifying asset that offer a unique opportunity to make (or lose!) a lot of money quickly.

Bitcoin (BTC-USD on Yahoo – $71,514.34) was in a bear market, down 50% from its high. The hedge funds that helped fuel a boom in US exchange-traded funds holding bitcoin are in rapid retreat. According to CF Benchmarks, aggregate bitcoin ETF allocations among the largest hedge fund holders fell 28% from the September to the December quarter of 2025.

Click for larger graphic h/t Yahoo Finance

But it rose after strategists pointed to the token’s resilience amid market volatility tied to the Middle East conflict. A move to integrate digital assets into the US mainstream financial system and President Trump’s push to advance crypto-related legislation also drove up crypto stocks and token prices. Bitcoin climbed to a one-month high above $73,000 as more than $680 million flowed into spot bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs). The ETF flows suggest this isn’t just a short squeeze. This is institutional allocators treating bitcoin as a geopolitical crisis hedge, or potentially even as a hedge against future war-related inflation.

As @River pointed out, there is no bear market in bitcoin adoption. Institutions – businesses, governments, funds, and ETFs – bought a record 829,000 bitcoins in 2025. Registered investment advisors, the largest investor class in the world, overseeing approximately $146 trillion in client assets, have been net buyers for eight quarters in a row. In 2025, the number of businesses in the US accepting bitcoin for payments tripled, while global usage grew by 74%. And five countries became new bitcoin owners in 2025, including purchases from two sovereign wealth funds (Luxembourg and Saudi Arabia) and one central bank (the Czech Republic).

Click for larger graphic

BTC-USD, ETH-USD, IBIT, and ETHA are Strong Buys.
Primary Risk: Bitcoin falls due to over-regulation or is surpassed by another cryptocurrency.

iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT- $40.39) remains the cheapest and easiest way to buy bitcoin. IBIT is a Buy for the 2028, 2032, and 2036 halvings.
Primary Risk:Bitcoin falls due to over-regulation or is surpassed by another cryptocurrency.

iShares Ethereum Trust (ETHA- $15.80) remains the cheapest and easiest way to buy ethereum. ETHA is a Buy for the coming explosion in token-funded start-ups.
Primary Risk: Ethereum falls due to over-regulation or is surpassed by another cryptocurrency.

Commodities

Oil – $79.04

Oil shot up to a 2026 high today on fears of a war-related supply shortage, but what’s going to be revealed is a fundamental supply shortage. Iran’s 2.2 million barrels a day of exports are gone. OPEC+ said they will hike production and exports, but the bears are about to learn that spare capacity is tight. Most of it sits with Saudi Arabia and the UAE, and even their buffers aren’t exactly deep. They have to hoard what’s left.

Whether OPEC+ hikes by 137,000 barrels a day or 206,000 barrels a day, the actual physical barrels hitting the market will be much lower. If they only did 137,000 barrels a day, President Trump would probably roast them, so adding that symbolic 69,000 barrels a day is just for show.

Qatar, the largest LNG exporter in the world, has halted exports. Who buys more Qatari LNG than anyone else? China. Who buys more Persian Gulf oil than anyone else? China. Who buys all – yes, all – the Iranian oil? China. Who is Iran hurting the most by attacking its regional neighbors? Why, its best buddy – or should I say former best buddy.

In his quarterly letter to investors, Kaes Van’t Hof, the CEO of Diamondback Energy (the top US shale company), says the “wave of oversupply that has been widely telegraphed for the better part of the last two years continues to get pushed to the right.” News Flash: It is never coming.

The July 2026 Crude Oil Futures (CLN26.NYM – $72.27) are a Buy under $70 for a $200+ target. Only buy futures for all cash; do not use margin.

The United States 12 Month Oil Fund, LP (USL – $41.56) is a Buy under $40 for a $100+ target.

Vermilion Energy (VET – $11.35) reported December quarter revenues up 11.9% from last year to $458.72 million, clobbering the consensus expectation for $392.44 million. They had a GAAP loss of $2.85 per share. On the conference call (WEBCAST HERE and TRANSCRIPT HERE), CEO Anthony Hatcher said he expects March quarter production to average 122,000 to 124,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day (boe/d), 70% of which will be natural gas. This quarter’s production includes some temporary downtime in Australia related to a Category 3 cyclone event. The staff in Australia exported approximately 300,000 barrels of oil and then managed the safe shutdown. They now are focused on completing the necessary repair work to support the restart of operations following the shutdown.

In spite of the cyclone, full-year 2026 guidance is unchanged. They expect to deliver production of 118,000 to 122,000 boe/d (70% gas). VET is a buy under $11 for a target price of $24 or more.
Primary Risk: Oil and natural gas prices fall.

Energy Fuels (UUUU – $20.32) reported December quarter results. Revenues fell 15.6% from last year to $65.92 million, just above Wall Street’s $64.53 million estimate. The company sold 650,000 pounds at an average price of $74.20 per pound. The GAAP loss of 38¢ per share was worse than the -32¢ estimate. On the conference call (WEBCAST HERE and SLIDES HERE and TRANSCRIPT HERE), CEO Mark Chalmers guided 2026 production and sales to 2.0-2.5 million pounds of uranium mined, 1.5-2.5 million pounds processed, and 1.5-2.0 million pounds sold.

Mark described 2025 as a breakout year for Energy Fuels, citing operational ramp-up milestones that “set the stage for significant future cash flow generation, market differentiation and competitive advantages in the critical materials space.” The company exceeded their upgraded guidance, mining over 1.7 million pounds of uranium and processing over 1 million pounds of finished U3O8. In addition to materially increasing uranium mining production and sales in 2026, Mark highlighted their progress in the rare earth segment with pilot production of dysprosium and upcoming terbium oxide production, and qualification of NdPr and Dy products by major automobile manufacturers.

All government approvals were received for the Donald joint venture project in Australia, with feasibility studies for rare earth expansion projects showing a combined net present value (NPV) of $3.7 billion. Mark said: “Energy Fuels has solidified its position as the largest and lowest cost U.S. uranium producer and emerging large-scale, low-cost rare earth and critical mineral producer.”

Ross Bhappu, President and CEO as of April 15, detailed the White Mesa Mill’s capabilities, saying: “We have a current capacity of 1,000 tonnes per annum of NdPr. We produced 29 kilograms of dysprosium oxide, and next month we plan to produce our first kilogram of terbium oxide.” He underscored their expansion plans in rare earths, with commercial quantities of heavy rare earth oxides targeted for 2027 and commissioning of Phase 2 expansion at White Mesa Mill planned for late 2028 or early 2029. The planned acquisition of ASM in Australia to provide monazite feedstock is expected to close by June 2026.

CFO Nathan Bennett said their gross margin percentage, which was 31% in 2025, is expected to rise to 50% and above in 2026. Mark said: “Our cost of goods sold is going to decrease as we ramp up the production, and we still are focused on basically using our uranium business to fund a lot of the company’s expenditures going forward.” They expect their finished inventory weighted average cost to decrease from $43 per pound to the low $30s as uranium prices strengthen.

The company finished the year with $862 million of cash. UUUU is a buy under $8 for a $30 target.
Primary Risk: Uranium prices fall.

EQT (EQT – $61.67) jumped as European natural gas futures spiked over 50% after Qatar shut LNG production at the world’s largest export facility because it was targeted in an Iranian drone attack. QatarEnergy’s Ras Laffan plant covers about 20% of global liquefied natural gas supply, and the unprecedented halt now threatens energy security and rattled global markets.

A widening Middle East conflict looks set to create the most significant disruption for gas markets since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine upended global trade in 2022. Europe’s benchmark gas futures jumped by the most since then. Iran’s neighbors, like Qatar, are some of the world’s most important producers, and the region is also a vital supply route, with 20% of liquefied natural gas exports traveling through the Strait of Hormuz, a crucial chokepoint for global flows at the entrance to the Persian Gulf.

LNG shipments from the Middle East had already been disrupted since the weekend as tankers largely stopped transiting the narrow waterway, according to ship-tracking data. Asian buyers. which take roughly a quarter of their LNG from Qatar, the world’s second-largest exporter, have been calling suppliers to check if alternative cargoes are available, according to traders. Egypt, meanwhile, is trying to bring forward shipments, after supplier Israel shuttered some fields.

Asia is particularly vulnerable to similar ripple effects from the Middle East’s worsening crisis. More than four-fifths of Qatar’s LNG was delivered to Asian buyers last year, with China the biggest purchaser, taking almost a third of its imports from the country. India is the second-largest importer.

The venture capital firm a16z published an excellent two-part backgrounder about natty, the resource powering AI and keeping much of the world warm – PART ONE HERE and PART TWO HERE. Their insight: “The EIA has gotten natural gas demand wrong – forecasting flat domestic consumption is erroneous. These flawed forecasts have led to tenuous assumptions about the future of the gas market reverberating through the country – and ultimately will likely end up in an overbuild of LNG export capacity as demand for gas-fired intelligence continues to grow.

“To those planning on building data centers that use natural gas – worry not; the desire to build new export capacity while taking merchant risk is a fundamental capital allocation flaw by a number of export companies motivated by a volatile international market reorganizing itself in the wake of Russia’s Ukraine invasion. As LNG export capacity is not 1:1 with demand if the exporters cannot sell the gas abroad at their marked-up price (based off Henry Hub), it will remain in the US, at the loss of the exporter, not you.”

Goldman Sachs continues to recommend EQT, noting the company’s integrated, pure-play Appalachian asset base supports its lower cost structure and optimized productivity relative to peers as demonstrated by its $2.00/MMBtu long-term breakeven and strong uptime during the recent Winter Storm Fern. Given the company’s flexible operations (EQT generated about $1 billion in free cash flow in the month of February alone through optimizations around the storm), Goldman believes the company’s strong track record of operational execution can continue to further reduce its cost structure over time beyond cost savings from recent acquisition synergies. EQT is a buy under $70 for a long-term hold for much higher prices.
Primary Risk:Natural gas prices fall.

Freeport McMoRan (FCX – $62.66) said that it has entered into a Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) with the Indonesian government for a Life of Resource extension of operating rights for PT Freeport Indonesia (PTFI) in the Grasberg minerals district. Freeport will maintain its current ownership interest in PTFI of 48.76% through 2041 and hold approximately 37% beginning in 2042.

CEO Kathleen Quirk presented at the BMO Global Metals, Mining & Critical Minerals Conference On the conference call, (WEBCAST HERE and TRANSCRIPT HERE). She gave the standard presentation. As copper demand accelerates, FCX will go higher. FCX is a Hold for higher copper prices.
Primary Risk: Copper prices fall.

* * * * *

In Elon Musk’s 2018 leaked Tesla memo, he lays out 7 blunt rules for getting more done:

Click for larger graphic h/t @BigBrainBizness

* * * * *

RIP Neil Sedaka

* * * * *

And RIP John Hammond

Hammond was the only person who had both Eric Clapton and Jimi Hendrix in his band at the same time.

* * * * *

Your understanding How America Goes Bankrupt Editor,

Michael Murphy CFA
Founding Editor
New World Investor

All Recommendations

Priced 3/5/26. Check out the complete Portfolio page HERE.

Buys
These are the stocks everyone needs to own because transformative events are happening over the next year or two, and I expect to hold them long-term.

Tech Dominators
  Apple Computer (AAPL – $260.29) – Buy under $205
  Gilead Sciences (GILD – $145.14) – Buy under $115, first target price $150
  Meta (META – $660.57) – Buy under $705 for a long-term hold
  Nvidia (NVDA – $183.34) – Buy under $200 for a long-term hold
  Onsemi (ON – $60.85) – Buy under $60, first target price $130
  Palantir (PLTR – $152.67) – Buy under $160 for $200 first target price
  PayPal (PYPL – $47.64) – Buy under $50, target price $150
  Snap (SNAP – $5.34) – Buy under $11, target price $17+

Small Tech
  Enovix (ENVX – $5.05) – Buy under $20; 4-year hold to $100+
  First Trust NASDAQ Cybersecurity ETF (CIBR – $65.79) – Buy under $75; 3- to 5-year hold
  Fastly (FSLY – $20.44) – Buy under $10 for a 3- to 5-year hold to $50+
  PagerDuty (PD – $7.76) – Buy under $30; 2- to 5-year hold
  QuickLogic (QUIK – $8.78) – Buy under $10, target price $40
  ARK Venture Fund (ARKVX – $49.74) – Buy for SpaceX IPO

$20-for-$1 Biotech
  AbCellera Biologics (ABCL – $3.59) – Buy under $6, target $30+
  Akebia Therapeutics (AKBA – $1.19) – Buy under $4, target $20
  Compass Pathways (CMPS – $6.78) – Buy under $10, hold a long time for a 20x return
  Editas Medicines (EDIT – $1.90) – Buy under $6 for a double in 12 months and a long-term hold to much higher prices
  Inovio (INO – $1.68) – Buy under $5, hold a long time
  Medicenna (MDNAF – $0.61) – Buy under $3, first target $20, then maybe $40
  ScyNexis (SCYX – $0.79) – Buy under $2.50, target price $20, then $50
  TG Therapeutics (TGTX – $29.03) – Buy under $30 for buyout at $40+

Inflation
  A Short-Sale or REO House – ($415,400) – Hold
  Bag of Junk Silver – ($82.35) – hold through silver bull market
  Sprott Gold Miners ETF (SGDM – $83.74) – Buy under $50, target price $75
  Sprott Junior Gold Miners ETF (SGDJ – $101.21) – Buy under $60, target price $100
  Sprott Physical Gold and Silver Trust (CEF – $52.15) – Buy under $35, target price $60
  Global X Silver Miners ETF (SIL – $102.39) – Buy under $60, target price $100
  Coeur Mining (CDE – $22.63) – Buy under $10, target price $20
  Paramount Gold Nevada (PZG – $2.40) – Buy under $1, first target price $10
  Royal Gold (RGLD – $276.47) – Buy under $180

Cryptocurrencies
  Bitcoin (BTC-USD – $71,514.34) – Buy
  iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT – $40.39) – Buy
  Ethereum (ETH-USD – $2,081.14)– Buy
  iShares Ethereum Trust (ETHA- $15.80) – Buy

Commodities
  Crude Oil Futures – July 2026 (CLN26.NYM – $72.27) – Buy under $70; $200+ target
  United States 12 Month Oil Fund, LP (USL – $41.56) – Buy under $40; $100+ target
  Vermilion Energy (VET – $11.35) – Buy under $11; $24+ target
  Energy Fuels (UUUU – $20.32) – Buy under $18; $30 target
  EQT (EQT – $61.67) – Buy under $70; hold for much higher prices ($100+)

Holds
These are holds but not sells – yet. They could get moved back to one of the buy categories if their prices drop or outlook improves, or they could become sell recommendations in the future.
  SoftBank (SFTBY – $11.93) – Hold
  Dakota Gold (DC – $6.05) – Hold for higher gold prices
  First Majestic Mining (AG – $26.27) – Hold for higher silver prices
  Freeport McMoRan (FCX – $62.66) – Hold for higher copper prices

Publisher: GwynRose LLC, 5348 Vegas Drive, Suite 868, Las Vegas, NV 89108

New World Investor does not act as a personal investment adviser or advocate the purchase or sale of any security or investment for any specific individual. The recommendations and analysis presented to members are for the exclusive use of members. Members should be aware that investment markets have inherent risks and there can be no guarantee of future profits. Likewise, past performance does not assure future results. Recommendations are subject to change at any time. Nothing in this presentation should be considered personalized investment advice. No communication to you by Michael Murphy or any of our employees or contractors should be deemed as personalized investment advice.

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