Dear New World Investor:

Is the economy hot or not…and does the Fed care? The answer is that it is stronger than the Fed expected, but they don’t directly care. What they care about is inflation and unemployment – those are their two mandates.

Inflation

We got the March Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation report, which is not the Fed’s preferred measure of inflation. They have repeatedly said that they look at the core Personal Consumption Expenditures Index (PCI) to get to their 2% target. The next PCE announcement comes April 26, before the May 1 Fed meeting. March’s CPI increase was driven by elements not included in the PCE.

First, the numbers. Headline year-over-year (YoY) inflation was 3.5%. That was up from 3.2% in February and a tick above the 3.4% expectation. The core YoY number, excluding food and energy, was 3.8%, the same as February but also a tick above the 3.7% consensus. Essentially, the markets panicked Wednesday over inflation topping the consensus estimates by a tenth of a percent. The deflation of core goods intensified, showing a YoY decrease of 0.7%, while the growth rate for core services accelerated, reaching +5.4%.

As usual, the lagging Cost of Shelter component contributed most to the slow CPI decline. Cost of Shelter includes the rent paid by tenants for housing and something called Owner Equivalent Rent, calculating the hypothetical amount homeowners would pay to rent their own homes, which obviously is affected by what renters actually pay. The “Rent of Primary Residence” component came in at 5.67% YoY, which was the lowest reading since May 2022, but still reflecting early 2023 rents rather than today’s generally lower reality.

@ernietedeschi, former Chief Economist at the White House Council of Economic Advisers, showed how the Zillow single family rent data leads the CPI shelter component by 12 months:

Click for larger graphic h/t @ernietedeschi

@jayparsons, a rental housing economist, showed this chart:

Click for larger graphic h/t @jayparsons

Cost of shelter – the two rent measures – accounts for 32% of the CPI and 43% of the core CPI. The blue line above shows real asking rents are up 0.20% YoY, not the 5.68% the Bureau of Labor Statistics used. If we multiply that 5.48 percentage point difference by the 32% that rents account for in the CPI, we get an overstatement of 1.75 percentage points. Subtract that from the 3.5% reported and annual inflation was just 1.75%. Using the same methodology, core CPI falls from 3.8% to 1.5% (hat tip @OphirGottlieb).

The month-over-month (MoM) increase was 0.4%, unchanged from February but a tick above economists’ forecast. The core MoM increase, which is a marginally useful number for figuring out what is really going on, was up 0.36%, also the same as February and also well above the consensus. A 0.36% monthly increase compounds to well over 4% annual inflation. Not good. The futures market has now pushed out the first rate cut into September. I think that the Fed will either cut by June or not at all to avoid looking partisan in the lead-up to the election. As I’ve been saying for months, “high – but not higher – for longer.” You heard it here first.

Unemployment

The Bureau of Labor Statistics said the US added 303,000 jobs in March, more than 50% above the consensus forecast for 200,000 and the largest gain in 10 months. The odds of all economists surveyed missing their nonfarm payrolls forecasts by such a wide margin for three straight months seem awfully low to me, but we’ll have to wait until after the election to see the final revisions.

In the real world, corporate cash and free cash flow are at record high levels, supporting stock prices as we head into March quarter earnings results.

Click for larger graphic h/t @JessicaMenton

Market Outlook

The S&P 500 added 1.0% since last Thursday as inflation reality came in not much worse than – maybe even a little bit better than – inflation fears. The Index is up 9.0% year-to-date, and has been much stronger seasonally that in a typical Presidential election year. You could argue that means (1) it’s ahead of itself; or, (2) that it’s a powerful sign of underlying strength. I think it’s both, so we’ll probably see high-level churning through the election.

Click for larger graphic

Although April should get better after next Monday.

Click for larger graphic

The Nasdaq Composite gained 2.4% as investors looked ahead to March quarter earnings, especially in technology. It is up 9.5% for the year. The SPDR S&P Biotech Exchange-Traded Fund (XBI) climbed 2.0% as riskier assets caught a bid. It is only up 2.2% year-to-date, though

The small-cap Russell 2000 fell 0.5% and is (barely) up 0.8% in 2024. BofA said: “The Russell 2000 remains historically cheap vs. the Nasdaq, and as the overall corporate profits backdrop continues to broaden/accelerate, we see better trends for US small caps.”

Click for larger graphic h/t @dailychartbook

The newest Conference Board survey showed 49.3% of consumers expect higher stock prices. That number has only ever been higher once, in January 2018 at 51.0%. Following that instance, the S&P had mildly negative returns over the next 12 months, followed by a huge rally.

Click for larger graphic h/t @dailychartbook

The fractal dimension continues to grind out the necessary consolidation. As I said last week, this could continue for quite a while.

Top 5

Changes this week: None

Near-Term – chronological order
SCYX – ScyNexis – Data releases and resolution of the manufacturing problem
TGTX TG Therapeutics – Rapid recovery from overdone pullback
AAPL Apple – AI announcements at June WWDC and September iPhone 16 introduction
EQT EQT –natural gas price rebound
USL United States 12 Month Oil Fund, LP – crude should rise quickly
FCX Freeport McMoRan – copper shortage

Long-Term – alphabetical order
EQT EQT – largest US natural gas company
IBIT iShares Bitcoin Trust – Bitcoin is headed for $100,000
META Meta – a (the?) leader in the metaverse
RKLB Rocket Lab – #2 to SpaceX in space
SCYX ScyNexis –First new antifungal in 20 years
VLD Velo3D – Return manufacturing to the US

Economy

The Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow model now is predicting March quarter real GDP growth of +2.4%, still a bit above the consensus for +2.1%. We get the first estimate in two weeks on April 25.

Click for larger graphic

Variant Perception has a proprietary VP Leading Indicator of US economic conditions, and it is clearly inflecting higher:

Click for larger graphic h/t @VrntPerception

I may have to change my mild recession forecast if this keeps up.

Coming Events
All times below are ET, and most presentations and slides are archived on the companies’ websites so you can listen to them.

Sunday, April 14
TGTX – TG Therapeutics – 7:30pm – Poster presentation at American Academy of Neurology annual meeting

Monday, April 15
INO – Inovio – 6:40pm – Festival of Biologics presentation “Advancing INO-3100 for the Treatment of Recurrent Respiratory Papillomatosis”

Tuesday, April 16
ABCL – AbCellera – 10:00am – Bloom Burton Healthcare Conference
MDNAF – Medicenna – 11:00am – Bloom Burton Healthcare Conference

Wednesday, April 17
TGTX – TG Therapeutics – 8:00am – 2 more poster presentations at American Academy of Neurology annual meeting

Big Tech: The Biotech & Digital Dominators MegaShift
There are at least four ways to make money in the stocks of these large, growing, dominant companies. You can:
* * Buy a stock and hold it
* * Buy a stock and write a call option against it
* * With a Level IV options account, write an out-of-the-money put option
* * With a Level IV options account, write an out-of-the-money put option and use part of the premium to buy an out-of-the-money call option

Apple (AAPL – $175.04) Vision Pro and spatial computing are going to change the way businesses operate. Workers can customize workspaces, collaborate on 3D designs, deliver specialized employee training, and guide remote fieldwork in entirely new ways.

According to Bloomberg, Apple already is assembling one out of every seven iPhones in India as they reduce their dependence on Taiwan and China. AAPL is a Buy under $175 for new iPhone rollouts and augmented/virtual reality products.

Corning (GLW – $32.27) was named to Goldman Sachs’ High Operating Leverage list. The company has said they can supply the next $3 billion in revenues without increasing their costs. Goldman said that they expect corporate profits to be the primary driver of forward equity returns. Stocks in the Goldman high operating leverage basket “are poised to benefit.”

They pointed out that high operating leverage stocks are trading near a record valuation discount to low operating leverage stocks. The median high operating leverage stock is expected to grow its earnings per share this year by 13% and is trading at 19x next-twelve-month earnings. The median low operating leverage stock is expected to grow its EPS by 7% and is trading at 24x next-twelve-month earnings. GLW is a Buy under $33 for the 5G cellular buildout, followed by the smartphone upgrade to use 5G services. My target is $60 in 2025 .

Meta Platforms (META – $523.16) introduced the next generation of their custom-made semiconductors designed for their specific AI workloads. These Training and Inference Accelerator processors wind up in custom-built computers to power their ranking and recommendation ads models on Facebook and Instagram.

Meta is one of the few companies large enough and smart enough to create the most efficient architecture for their unique workloads. AI compute requirements will only increase as the company’s new generative AI products, recommendation systems, and advanced AI research models get more sophisticated.

Piper Sandler said their latest Teen Survey showed
1) Facebook teen usage reach a four-year high
2) Year-over-year, Instagram’s usage lead over the next most popular app rose from 500 basis points to 800 bps
3) The largest observed improvement in teens voting Instagram as their favorite app since the debut of TikTok

Jefferies thinks Meta’s advertising will outgrow Amazon’s advertising in 2024 for the first time in a decade. Ads are 98% of Meta’s revenue, and the consensus expects 17.5% growth in 2024.The consensus 2024 ad revenue growth for Amazon is 22.4%. If Jefferies is right, or even close, there will be material upside to META earnings estimates. META is a Buy under $345 for a $400 target in 2024.

PayPal Holdings (PYPL – $65.80) teased their new innovations to revolutionize commerce, coming this year.

The new CEO, Alex Chriss, was on CNBC a couple of months ago, saying: “We will shock the world.”

Xoom, PayPal’s cross-border money transfer service, announced that US users now have the option to fund money transfers to friends and family abroad using US dollars converted from PayPal USD (PYUSD), a US dollar-denominated stablecoin. US Xoom users can easily convert the PYUSD in their linked PayPal Cryptocurrency Hub to US dollars and send money to recipients in approximately 160 countries globally with no transaction fees.

According to the World Bank’s September quarter 2023 report, the global average cost of sending $200 is just over 6%. With no Xoom transaction fees, cross-border money transfers funded using USD converted from PYUSD provides a lower cost option. PYPL is a Buy under $68 for a double in three years.

SoftBank (SFTBY – $27.98) sold 10.69 million shares of ValueCommerce back to the company for $70.8 million, reducing ValueCommerce’s position from “subsidiary” to “equity method associate,” which reduces SoftBank’s earnings volatility exposure. SFTBY is a Buy under $25 for a first target of $50 in the next two years.

Small Tech

Rocket Lab USA (RKLB – $3.86) won a $32 million contract from the US Space Force Space Systems Command to deliver the VICTUS HAZE Tactically Responsive Space Mission. Combining their launch and space systems capabilities as an integrated solution, Rocket Lab will design and build a rendezvous proximity operation (RPO) capable spacecraft, before launching it on Electron in 2025 with just 24 hours notice. After launch, they will operate it. The mission will be an exercise of a realistic threat-response scenario and on-orbit space domain awareness (SDA) demonstration.

The company is about to reuse a first stage fuel tank recovered during a January mission in a new launch. Reusability is one way to lower costs while maintaining or even increasing profit margins.
RKLB is a Buy up to $13 for my $30+ target as low earth orbit satellites and space exploration grow.
Primary Risk: A new competitor emerges.

Velo3D (VLD – $0.33) has received purchase orders totaling $27 million since mid-December, with more than 50% of these orders from existing customers. The orders include the purchase of two Sapphire XC systems by Mears Machine, a leading global contract manufacturer, to supply parts for their defense and aerospace initiatives. The company ended the March quarter with $17 million in bookings and a $23 million backlog.

They did a “best efforts” public offering, which is the bottom of the barrel. They sold 34,285,715 units of stock and warrants at 35¢ each, raising about $11 million net of fees for about 14% dilution. The stock was clobbered and is climbing back.

There’s bad news and good news. The bad news is that the trouble with these deals is the low lifes that buy them sell their stock ASAP for 35¢ and keep the warrants as a free ride. So until most of the new stock gets sold, there’s a lid on the price.

The good news is they wouldn’t have done this if they were about to sell the whole company cheaply to someone. So I’m going to stick with them but slash my buy limit and target price, even though I still think they eventually will dominate the high-tolerance metal parts printing business. The buy limit goes to $1 and the target price to $10, although when it gets there I’ll probably raise it. VLD now is a Buy up to $1 for my $10 target as Velo3D’s high-tolerance metal parts printing business grows.
Primary Risk:A new 3D metal printing competitor emerges.

Biotech MegaShift: The $20-For-$1 Stocks

Say you put $2,000 into a stock that goes from 50¢ a share to $10. The $2,000 turns into $40,000. Then you put the $40,000 into another stock that goes from 50¢ to $10. That turns the $40,000 into $800,000. You did it with two stocks and never risked going negative more than $2,000. (Not that you won’t be mad at me if the first one works and then the second one doesn’t, taking your $40,000 to Money Heaven.)

If you can afford it – and it would not be too big a position in your portfolio – putting $2,000 into each of these speculative biotechs might be a good way to start. Buying these out-of-favor, fallen, or forgotten companies that can get important products through the FDA at very low market capitalizations seems like a good strategy to me.

Risks

Development-stage biotechs are subject to investor sentiment swings from wildly optimistic to excessively pessimistic – mostly the latter recently. After the Primary Risk for each company, I’ve added the clinical stage of their lead product, the probable time of their first FDA approval, and the probable time of their next financing.

As always, you need to think about an appropriate position size. You could buy a full position upfront and then just hold on, or buy some upfront and leave room to add more on the inevitable financings, transient clinical trial setbacks, and the like.

AbCellera Biologics (ABCL- $4.38) presented data on T-cell engagers (TCEs) against four tumor targets at this week’s annual meeting of the American Association for Cancer Research (AACR). The company’s VP: Translational Research said: “TCEs are among the most promising new modalities in cancer therapy, but limitations in efficacy and safety have been barriers to realizing their potential for solid tumor indications. Our data illustrate that we can repeatedly generate TCEs that maximize tumor-cell killing without inducing excessive cytokine release. Reducing the risk associated with CD3 engagement could improve efficacy both by widening the therapeutic window and by creating opportunities to further enhance potency through co-stimulatory modalities.”

“Widening the therapeutic window” is because the molecules were engineered using a specific set of rare CD3-binding antibodies that consistently show potent tumor-cell killing and low cytokine release across multiple targets, demonstrating their potential to expand the therapeutic window across solid tumor indications.

“Enhancing potency” is because AbCellera’s CD28-binding antibodies do not display superagonist activity, which is a property associated with toxicity. Integrating co-stimulatory building blocks should enable development of molecules with enhanced potency for difficult-to-treat cancers.

The SVP: Partnering said: “Our platform for creating precision TCEs to address indications in cancer and autoimmunity provides a strong foundation for both internal programs and strategic partnerships. We look forward to advancing these programs with the aim of delivering powerful new medicines for patients.”

Or, to put it bluntly: “License me! License me!” Buy ABCL up to $6 for a long-term hold to $30 or more.
Primary Risk: Partnered and owned drugs fail in the clinic.
   Clinical stage of lead product: Partnered: Various Owned: Preclinical
   Probable time of next FDA approval: 2027-2028
   Probable time of next financing: 2026-2027 or never

Compass Pathways (CMPS – $9.18) presented at the Needham Healthcare Conference (AUDIO HERE). The two Phase 3 trials are on track, the first for a top-line data release at the end of 2024 and the second for a data release in mid-2025. A Phase 2 study in PTSD will read out in the next couple of months.

Click for larger graphic

Compass had $220.2 million in cash at the end of 2023 and raised another $31.4 million this year. They expect to burn $110 million to $130 million this year. CMPS is a Buy under $20 for a very long-term hold to a 10x.
Primary Risk: Their drugs fail in the clinic.
   Clinical stage of lead product: Phase 3
   Probable time of first FDA approval: 2026
   Probable time of next financing: Late 2025

Invitae (NVTAQ – $0.00) is at $0 pending the outcome of the April 17 auction. The company presented new studies at the American Society of Breast Surgeons (ASBrS) annual meeting this week. They showed how machine learning can reduce variants of uncertain significance (VUS) in patients who have received genetic testing for breast cancer, in addition to results from real world data showing that uncertain results do not lead to an overuse of mastectomies for breast cancer patients. Hold NVTAQ.
Primary Risk: Current shareholders don’t own any of the restructured company.
   Clinical stage of lead product: NM
   Probable time of first FDA approval: NM
   Probable time of next financing: Mid-2024.

Inflation MegaShift

Gold ($2,390.60) has had 13 straight up days to all-time intraday and closing highs today. Foreign central banks are getting out of the way of Secretary Yellen’s firehose of Treasury paper by swapping into gold.

Click for larger graphic h/t @TaviCosta

Gold’s weekly Relative Strength Index surpassed a reading of 77, a scenario observed in just 3% of precedents since 1973. Going forward, instances above 77 have yielded a remarkable 17% annualized return for the precious metal.

Click for larger graphic h/t @sentimentrader

How will we know when this first breadth thrust is coming to a conclusion? I’m looking for a climax, and gold can’t fake it. I expect to see inflows into the metal exchange-traded funds. I’d like to see CNBC talking nonstop about gold. I want to see junior miners finally able to raise capital. Finally, I expect to see stories about gold starting to catch up with the price of gold.

Click for larger graphic h/t @hkuppy

For now, the fractal dimension has plenty of energy to push the price of gold higher.

Miners & Related

Coeur Mining (CDE – $4.79) presented at Gold Forum Europe (SLIDES HERE). It was their standard presentation.

Click for larger graphic
Click for larger graphic

CDE is a Buy under $5 for a $20 target as gold goes higher.
Primary Risk: Prices of precious metals fall due to US dollar strength.

Sandstorm Gold (SAND – $5.45) announced March quarter sales and revenue, although they won’t announce earnings until May 2. They sold approximately 20,300 attributable gold equivalent ounces and realized preliminary revenue of $42.8 million. Preliminary cost of sales, excluding depletion, was $5.7 million, resulting in cash operating margins of approximately $1,781 per attributable gold equivalent ounce.

CEO Nolan Watson posted another investor meeting:

SAND is a Buy under $10 for a $25 target.
Primary Risk: Prices of precious metals fall due to US dollar strength.

Cryptocurrencies

Cryptocurrencies are a diversifying asset that offer a unique opportunity to make (or lose!) a lot of money quickly. You can easily buy bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies at Coinbase, Block, or Robinhood.

Bitcoin (BTC-USD on Yahoo – $70,734.71) fell below $70,000 as numerous day traders were liquidated and quickly bounced back.

The upcoming fourth bitcoin halving around April 20 is already priced in for the short term. It may follow a “buy the rumor, sell the news” pattern for a few months, mirroring the second halving in 2016. But this time around the bitcoin ETF holders are likely to buy more to capture the long-term impact of the supply shocks.

This halving will result in the smallest reduction in new issuance, in terms of bitcoins, in bitcoin’s history so far. But measured in dollars, the value of this issuance reduction is its highest ever, simply because bitcoin’s price is near its all-time high. At the time of the third halving on May 11, 2020, bitcoin was approximately $8,800. Today it’s over $70,000.

Click for larger graphic h/t @AndreasSteno

In the last month of high prices, most miners have not only sold off their entire mining rewards but also dipped into their reserves. The market has adjusted to a new equilibrium that accommodates all-time high selling activity by miners. When this selling pressure is reduced by half due to the halving, I believe the halving will push bitcoin up pretty quickly.

Click for larger graphic

BTC-USD, ETH-USD, IBIT, and ETHE are Strong Buys.
Primary Risk: Bitcoin falls due to over-regulation or is surpassed by another cryptocurrency.

iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT- $40.17) is a Buy for the 2024 and 2028 halvings.
Primary Risk:Bitcoin falls due to over-regulation or is surpassed by another cryptocurrency.

Commodities

The ratio of commodity prices to the S&P 500 is near all-time lows. Turnaround coming.

Click for larger graphic h/t @Schuldensuehner

Despite the recent upsurge in construction spending, capital spending in natural resource industries has remained near historically low levels. Changes in the supply curve of commodities typically align with the capital spending behavior of the underlying producers, although with a significant lag. It takes time for investments to translate into increased supply. Substantially higher prices will be necessary to incentivize new capex investment, and it will take many years before these new supplies come on stream in a significant enough way to lower prices. It has been taking 10 years or more on average to bring a new discovery into production.

Click for larger graphic h/t @TaviCosta

Oil – $85.57

With oil solidly bid at $85+, it’s probably time to pause the upswing to let everyone adjust to the new normal. I expect the Energy Information Administration to report crude builds for the next few weeks as they try to undo some of their weird 2023 adjustments. The Saudis want oil around $85 for now because they don’t want demand destruction. In fact, there was quite a change in tone from OPEC+, flagging the need to carefully monitor the “robust oil demand outlook for the summer months.”

Click for larger graphic h/t @JavierBlas

The July 2026 Crude Oil Futures (CLN26.NYM – $70.69) are a Buy under $70 for a $200+ target. Only buy futures for all cash; do not use margin.

The United States 12 Month Oil Fund, LP (USL – $41.27) is a Buy under $40 for a $100+ target.

* * * * *

* * * * *

Perception: Almost 50% of Millennials and a majority of Gen Z think “Racial minorities in the U.S. have no hope for success because of racism.”

Click for larger graphic h/t @TheRabbitHole84

Reality: Some of the most successful groups in the United States are racial minorities.

Click for larger graphic h/t @TheRabbitHole84

Your reviewing The Battle of the BADS Editor,

Michael Murphy CFA
Founding Editor
New World Investor

All Recommendations

Priced 4/11/24. Check out the complete Portfolio page HERE.

Portfolio Protection
  April 30 SPY $505 put (SPY240430P00505000 – $3.91) swap for the June 21 SPY $505 put (SPY240621P00505000 – $6.42)
  April 30 SPY $410 put (SPY240430P00410000 – $0.16) swap for the June 21 SPY $410 put (SPY240621P00410000 – $0.63)

Buys
These are the stocks everyone needs to own because transformative events are happening over the next year or two, and I expect to hold them long-term.

Tech Dominators
  Apple Computer (AAPL – $175.04) – Buy under $175 for new iPhones
  Corning (GLW – $32.27) – Buy under $33, target price $60
  Gilead Sciences (GILD – $68.65) – Buy under $80, target price $120
  Meta (META – $523.16) – Buy under $345, target price $400
  PayPal (PYPL – $65.80) – Buy under $68, target price $136
  SoftBank (SFTBY – $27.98) – Buy under $25, target price $50

Small Tech
  Enovix (ENVX – $7.34) – Buy under $20; 4-year hold to $100+
  First Trust NASDAQ Cybersecurity ETF (CIBR – $55.97) – Buy under $40; 3- to 5-year hold
  Fastly (FSLY – $13.74) – Buy under $20; 2- to 5-year hold to $80+
  PagerDuty (PD – $22.82) – Buy under $30; 2- to 5-year hold
  QuickLogic (QUIK – $13.86) – Buy under $10, target price $40
  Rocket Lab (RKLB – $3.86) – Buy under $13, target price $30+
  Velo3D (VLD – $0.33) – Buy under $1, target price $10

$20-for-$1 Biotech
  AbCellera Biologics (ABCL – $4.38) – Buy under $6, target $30+
  Akebia Biotherapeutics (AKBA – $1.53) – Buy under $2, target $20
  Aptose Biosciences (APTO – $1.38) – Buy under $10, ultimate target $300
  Compass Pathways (CMPS – $9.18) – Buy under $20, hold a long time for a 10x return
  Inovio (INO – $11.76) – Buy under $14, hold a long time
  Medicenna (MDNAF – $1.41) – Buy under $3, first target $20, then maybe $40
  ScyNexis (SCYX – $1.60) – Buy under $3, target price $20, then $50
  TG Therapeutics (TGTX – $14.76) – Buy under $12 for buyout at $30+

Inflation
  A Short-Sale or REO House – ($415,400) – Hold
  Bag of Junk Silver – ($28.60) – hold through silver bull market
  Sprott Gold Miners ETF (SGDM – $27.01) – Buy under $28, target price $50
  Sprott Junior Gold Miners ETF (SGDJ – $33.74) – Buy under $39, target price $100
  Sprott Physical Gold and Silver Trust (CEF – $22.23) – Buy under $18, target price $30
  Global X Silver Miners ETF (SIL – $32.19) – Buy under $30, target price $50
  Coeur Mining (CDE – $4.79) – Buy under $5, target price $20
  First Majestic Mining (AG – $7.96) – Buy under $11, next target price $23
  Paramount Gold Nevada (PZG – $0.47) – Buy under $1, first target price $10
  Sandstorm Gold (SAND – $5.45) – Buy under $10, target price $25
  Sprott Inc. (SII – $42.02) – Buy under $40, target price $70

Cryptocurrencies
  Bitcoin (BTC-USD – $70,734.71) – Buy
  iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT – $40.17) – Buy
  Ethereum (ETH-USD – $3,503.83) – Buy
  Grayscale Ethereum Trust (ETHE – $25.73) – Buy

Commodities
  Crude Oil Futures – July 2026 (CLN26.NYM – $70.69) – Buy under $70; $200+ target
  United States 12 Month Oil Fund, LP (USL – $41.27) – Buy under $40; $100+ target
  Vermilion Energy (VET – $12.48) – Buy under $11; $24 target
  EQT (EQT – $37.49) – Buy under $35; $70 first target
  Energy Fuels (UUUU – $6.42) – Buy under $8; $30 target
  Freeport McMoRan (FCX – $50.74) – Buy under $44; $65 target within two years

International & Other Recommendations
  EMQQ Emerging Markets Internet & Ecommerce ETF (EMQQ – $32.00) – Buy under $38 for a $66 target in 12 to 18 months
  KraneShares Bosera MSCI China A Share Fund (KBA – $21.26) – Buy under $40 for a three- to five-year hold
  Morgan Stanley China A-Shares Fund (CAF – $12.02) – Buy under $18 for a three- to five-year hold
  KraneShares CSI China Internet ETF (KWEB – $27.22) – Buy under $40 for a double over the next three years
  Acreage Holdings (ACRDF – $0.51) – Buy under $2 for the Canopy Growth merger
  Mongolia Growth Group (MNGGF – $1.01) – Buy under $1.30; long-term hold

Holds
These are holds but not sells – yet. They could get moved back to one of the buy categories if their prices drop or outlook improves, or they could become sell recommendations in the future.
  Arch Therapeutics (ARTH – $1.48) – Hold for buyout
  Invitae (NVTAQ – $0.00) – Hold for April 17 auction

Publisher: GwynRose LLC, 5348 Vegas Drive, Suite 868, Las Vegas, NV 89108

New World Investor does not act as a personal investment adviser or advocate the purchase or sale of any security or investment for any specific individual. The recommendations and analysis presented to members are for the exclusive use of members. Members should be aware that investment markets have inherent risks and there can be no guarantee of future profits. Likewise, past performance does not assure future results. Recommendations are subject to change at any time. Nothing in this presentation should be considered personalized investment advice. No communication to you by Michael Murphy or any of our employees or contractors should be deemed as personalized investment advice.

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