Dear New World Investor:
As you know, the core Personal Consumption Expenditures Index (PCE) strips out the volatile food and energy components from the headline PCE price index to provide a clearer picture of underlying inflation trends. I refer to the core PCE as the Fed’s favorite inflation indicator, because they have said it is. But there’s an even more refined measure, the Supercore PCE. It is a measure of inflation that focuses on the prices of core services like healthcare, education, recreation, and financial services that are less influenced by temporary supply shocks.
It excludes energy services and the large, lagging (and therefore very misleading) housing component, but it still accounts for a significant portion of core PCE inflation. The Fed thinks of this as “sticky” inflation because services prices minus housing are both less volatile and more persistent than other categories of inflation. Price increases are largely driven by factors such as wage growth (many of the services included in Supercore PCE are labor-intensive, such as healthcare, education, and personal services) and service-sector demand. It’s a better measure of underlying persistent inflationary pressures in the economy, and Chairman Powell has said they look at it closely.
Supercore PCE found itself in rare territory in April at -0.02% month-over-month, the first negative MoM reading since March 2017, excluding the initial COVID shutdown.
Click for larger graphic h/t @DiMartinoBooth
I suspect the Fed would declare victory except they don’t know if or how the ever-fluctuating tariffs will impact inflation and they are afraid the employment numbers are about to fall apart because consumers are stretched about as far as they can go. A “no problems” May payrolls number tomorrow morning translates to no change in Fed policy until things clear up…which may not happen for months.
Tuesday’s Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) data unexpectedly rose in the first month that most of President Trump’s tariffs went into effect. After being near a four-year low 7.2 million in March, job openings rose slightly to 7.39 million at the end of April, above the 7.1 million consensus expectation. While openings went up a little instead of down a little, they still show a declining trend.
Click for larger graphic h/t Yahoo Finance
Again, I think this translates to no change in Fed policy until Powell gets a stronger message.
Market Outlook
The S&P 500 added 0.5% since last Thursday. As my friend Keith Fitz-Gerald noted, about 98% of S&P500 companies have reported. 64% of them have reported positive revenue surprises and 78% have reported positive earnings surprises. The blended earnings per share growth rate is now 13.3% year-over-year, the second consecutive quarter of double-digit growth. The Index is up 1.0% year-to-date. The Nasdaq Composite gained 6.2% as investors realize that AI is the biggest technology change ever. It is flat for the year, giving them a graceful entry point. The SPDR S&P Biotech Exchange-Traded Fund (XBI) climbed 2.6% as investors realize that genetic editing is the second-biggest technology change ever. It is still down 8.3% year-to-date, giving the courageous an even more graceful entry point. The small-cap Russell 2000 booked a 1.1% gain but is down 6.0% in 2025.
The fractal dimension had another consolidation week. It didn’t need it, because it is already fully consolidated, but it is nice to bank some extra energy for the next leg up without a scary drop in the Index.
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Top 5
Changes this week: None
Near-Term – chronological order
AKBA Akebia Therapeutics – Vafseo launch
SCYX ScyNexis – Resolution of GSK situation
EQT EQT – natural gas price rebound
USL United States 12 Month Oil Fund, LP – crude should rise quickly
FCX Freeport McMoRan – copper shortage
Long-Term – alphabetical order
ABCL AbCelllera – Will become a huge pharma royalty company
UUUU Energy Focus – Domestic uranium supplier
EQT EQT – largest US natural gas company
IBIT iShares Bitcoin Trust – Bitcoin is headed for $150,000
META Meta – a (the?) leader in the metaverse
PLTR Palantir – a (the?) leader in AI applications software
RKLB Rocket Lab – #2 to SpaceX in space
SCYX ScyNexis –First new antifungal in 20 years
Economy
The Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow model estimate of June quarter real GDP slipped 4/10 to +3.8% due to weaker personal consumption expenditures growth and private domestic investment growth, but it’s still far above the Blue Chip economists’ expectation for +1.0%.
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Dollar Death Watch
The dollar closed at its lowest since July 2023 on Monday, supporting stock, gold, bitcoin, oil, and other commodity prices. Because too many of the “often in error, never in doubt” traders are heavily short the greenback, I expect it to turn up any day.
Coming Events
All times below are ET, and most presentations and slides are archived on the companies’ websites so you can listen to them.
Friday, June 6
May Payrolls – 8:30am – +130,000 expected; April was +177,000
Monday, June 9
AAPL – Apple – Through 6/13 – World Wide Developer’s Conference
RDW – Redwire – 10:00am – Shareholder vote on Edge Autonomy acquisition – vote YES
ABCL – AbCellera – 10:40m – Goldman Sachs Global Healthcare Conference
AAPL – Apple – 1:00pm – Tim Cook Keynote at WWDC
Tuesday, June 10
NVDA – Nvidia – 4:00am – Nasdaq Investor Conference in Partnership with Jefferies
NVDA – Nvidia – 10:00am – Rosenblatt Technology Summit: The Age of AI
GILD – Gilead Sciences – 11:30am – Goldman Sachs Global Healthcare Conference
PYPL – PayPal – 12:45pm – RBC Financial Technology Conference
Short Interest – After the close
Wednesday, June 11
Consumer Price Index – 8:30am
Thursday, June 12
ENVX – Enovix – 4:30pm – Annual meeting
Saturday, June 14
EDIT – Editas Medicines – 12:30pm – Poster presentation at the European Hematology Association (EHA) 2025 Congress
Big Tech: The Biotech & Digital Dominators MegaShift
There are at least four ways to make money in the stocks of these large, growing, dominant companies. You can:
* * Buy a stock and hold it
* * Buy a stock and write a call option against it
* * With a Level IV options account, write an out-of-the-money put option
* * With a Level IV options account, write an out-of-the-money put option and use part of the premium to buy an out-of-the-money call option
Apple (AAPL – $200.63) said global App Store sales hit a record $1.281 trillion in 2024. For more than 90% of the billings and sales facilitated by the App Store ecosystem, developers did not pay any commission to Apple. AAPL is a Buy under $205.
Gilead Sciences (GILD – $110.48) presented yet again, this time at the Jefferies Global Healthcare Conference (AUDIO HERE and TRANSCRIPT HERE). This time it was Chief Medical Officer Dietmar Berger with EVP of Kite Cindy Perettie again.
Dietmar said their pipeline is focused on three areas: virology, oncology, and immunology, In virology they have lenacapavir coming for HIV prevention with a June 19 PDUFA date (that’s Juneteenth, so maybe June 18). In oncology, they just announced that the combination of their antibody-conjugate drug Trodelvy with Merck’s immunotherapy drug Keytruda cut the risk of disease progression or death by 35% as a first-line option for triple-negative breast cancer, an aggressive cancer. Immunology has a number of interesting drugs in development.
Lenacapavir is a once-every-six-months subcutaneous injection. They have a once-a-year intramuscular shot in development that is as good as lenacapavir in preventing HIV infections. For treatment, they have efficacy and safety done. They are working on options: pills or injections, daily, weekly, monthly, or every six months. They want to give patients a choice of how they take the drugs. GILD is a Long-Term Buy under $90 for a first target of $120.
Meta Platforms‘ (META – $684.62) electricity consumption nearly tripled from 2019 to 2023. So they just signed a 20-year deal with Constellation Energy to buy 1,121 megawatts of nuclear power from Constellation’s Illinois nuclear plant to help meet surging demand for artificial intelligence and other computing needs. Meta’s investment will expand the plant’s output by 30 megawatts after the agreement takes effect in June 2027. META is a Buy under $655 for a long-term hold.
Micron (MU – $106.39) is shipping qualification samples of the world’s first 1γ (1-gamma) node-based low-power double data rate 5X (LPDDR5X) memory, designed to accelerate AI applications on flagship (i.e., expensive) smartphones. It delivers the industry’s fastest LPDDR5X speed grade of 10.7 gigabits per second, combined with up to a 20% power savings. Smartphones using this memory provide a faster, smoother mobile experiences and longer battery life, even when executing data-intensive workloads such as AI-powered translation or image generation.
Smartphone manufacturers want compact solutions for next-generation smartphone designs. The LPDDR5X has the industry’s thinnest package of 0.61 millimeters, making it 6% thinner compared to competitive offerings and a 14% height reduction from the previous generation. The small form factor unlocks more possibilities for smartphone manufacturers to design ultrathin or foldable smartphones. MU is a Buy under $102 for a $140 first target.
Nvidia (NVDA – $139.99) VP: Hyperscale & HPC Computing Ian Buck presented at the BofA Global Technology Conference (AUDIO HERE and TRANSCRIPT HERE). Ian is a 21-year veteran of Nvidia and in charge of the hardware and software for GPU accelerated computing, which is most of the company.
He said the Chinese DeepSeek model has made a difference to everyone else. People are adding reasoning, thinking out loud, and more answer checking to their models. All of those use more GPU compute, which is good for Nvidia. Blackwell is designed for these tasks. The models are getting bigger and more complex, and every interaction with a model now causes it to add that to its training.
(In a recent experiment with Anthropic’s Claude model, the AI was presented with a situation where an engineer working on a model to replace Claude was having a prohibited relationship with another engineer. Claude proposed blackmailing the engineer to stop the replacement project or Claude would reveal the relationship.)
Ian said anyone building an AI factory today knows it has to run for five years to be a good investment. That can happen only by buying the latest technology. Nvidia is working with companies worldwide to build out AI factories using Blackwell to meet the heightened performance requirements of these new applications. In the latest round of MLPerf Training, the 12th since the benchmark’s introduction in 2018, the Nvidia AI platform delivered the highest performance at scale on every benchmark and powered every result submitted on the benchmark’s toughest large language model (LLM)-focused test: Llama 3.1 405B pretraining.
The Nvidia platform was the only one that submitted results on every MLPerf Training v5.0 benchmark across a wide array of AI workloads, including LLMs, recommendation systems, multimodal LLMs, object detection, and graph neural networks. NVDA is a Buy under $125 for a $180 first target.
Onsemi (ON – $49.54) CEO Hassane El-Khoury and CFO Thad Trent made a strong presentation at the BofA Global Technology Conference (AUDIO HERE and TRANSCRIPT HERE) that moved the stock up 9%.
They said they have repositioned the company both strategically and financially to focus on what they can control: investment in new products and rationalizing/reducing their manufacturing footprint. This sets them up for better margin expansion when the cycle turns back up. They are starting to see signs of recovery in industrial, their second-largest market.
It looks like the June quarter will be the bottom in automotive, their largest market. They expect growth from EVs in China plus a broad-based global recovery in the second half of 2025. AI also is looking for the high-voltage components made by Onsemi. The SiC (silicon carbide) market is excellent for them in automotive and renewable energy – not just residential solar inverters, but charging stations, energy storage in container-level battery packs, and utility-grade applications. An Onsemi SiC inverter chip can let the customer reduce a battery size by 10%, so it’s a no-brainer sale in China, where the customer makes both the inverter and the battery.
They have many SiC wins in plug-in hybrids, where they can extend the electric-only range from 50 miles to 75 or 100 miles. As pure EVs move to 800 volt batteries, SiC is needed more and more. Their share of market is increasing from 20% towards their 40% target.
Image sensors are both automotive (self-driving) and industrial (robotics) products where they have a 60%+ market share with new products coming out.
Onsemi has channel inventory and balance sheet inventory under tight control. Some customers have a little extra inventory while others don’t have enough. When business turns up they will show immediate revenue growth, followed two quarters later by margin expansion. In the short term, gross margins are driven by utilization. Every percentage point of increased utilization leads to 25 to 30 basis points of gross margin improvement. Longer term, a steady stream of new products will give them 60% to 70% gross margins. In a hot market they have been in the mid-80s. ON is a Buy under $60 for a $100 first target.
Palantir (PLTR – $119.91) got a nice hit piece in The New York Times: Trump Taps Palantir to Compile Data on Americans. The Times tried to imply that the Administration is using Palantir to put together a police state to control Americans. They wrote: “In March, President Trump signed an executive order calling for the federal government to share data across agencies, raising questions over whether he might compile a master list of personal information on Americans that could give him untold surveillance power.”
What Trump’s executive order actually does is build a cross-agency backbone using Foundry to pull together data from the IRS, HHS, DHS, ICE, and all the others. It doesn’t collect any new information.
Why was this hit piece “nice?” Because it included the fact that Palantir has gotten $113 million in contracts since Trump became President and investors speculated that the company might eventually get over $1 billion in contracts. As CEO Alex Karp said, AI is dangerous…if China wins.
PLTR is a Buy under $100 for a $150 target.
PayPal Holdings (PYPL – $72.47) introduced a physical MasterCard for their PayPal Credit, so it now can be used both online when checking out with PayPal or in-store. They also announced a Venmo debit card to encourage consumers to think beyond peer-to-peer payments to using balances for everyday purchases and earning enhanced rewards in-store and online. PYPL is a Buy under $68 for a double in three years.
Snap (SNAP – $8.20) said Snap Map now has over 400 million monthly active users. Snap Map is about more than getting directions from Point A to Point B. It enables Snapchatters to stay connected, in real time, to their physical world, make plans, explore local hotspots, and stay informed about what’s happening around them.
And, of course, they offer Snapchat Promoted Places, so businesses can show up where Snapchatters are already exploring to drive visits and discover new customers. SNAP is a Buy under $11 for a $17+ target.
SoftBank (SFTBY – $25.64) will hold their annual meeting on June 27 and they’ve posted on online form where you can ask them a question, shareholder or not. CLICK HERE. SFTBY is a Buy under $25 for a first target of $50 in the next two years.
Small Tech
Fastly (FSLY – $7.54) CEO Todd Nightingale presented at the William Blair Growth Stock Conference (AUDIO HERE). Todd said they transitioned from a content delivery point program to an edge delivery platform that includes best-in-class content delivery, edge security including bot mitigation, edge compute for personalization, and observability to build the most reliable sites in the world. As a result, they are engaged at far more accounts and a far more diversified user base that started in media and publishing. They’ve added high tech, retail, ecommerce, hospitality, health care, and more. They had 40% of their revenues in their top 10 accounts at the end of 2023. That’s down to 32%. In the March quarter they had 17% growth outside the top 10.
Thanks to the bankruptcies of price-cutting competitors, the pricing environment is much better and will be for a few years, so Fastly can return to double-digit growth. One way they expand gross margins is by selling additional products to current customers, because all their products run on the same platform. About half of their current customers use only one product, so the are taking their cybersecurity suite to those customers. In addition, customers that use two or more products are stickier and more profitable.
Their new AI accelerator allows customers using large language models (LLMs) to both lower their costs and provide far faster response time for applications like customer service. FSLY is a Buy under $10 for a 3- to 5-year hold to $50+.
Primary Risk:Content and applications delivery networks are a competitive area.
PagerDuty (PD – $15.38) CEO Jennifer Tejada presented at the BofA Global Technology Conference (AUDIO & SLIDES DOWNLOAD HERE). Jen said today PagerDuty is the most resilient, secure, and scalable digital operations platform available to both large enterprises and highly innovative new technology companies.
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Forrester has said PagerDuty customers get a 249% return on investment over three years with a payback period under 12 months. They see a huge market opportunity:
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PagerDuty is a great investment for at least six reasons:
1. They have the leading real-time operations cloud platform. Their comprehensive product offerings let customers optimize operating efficiency and offer a tangible return on investment.
2. They have a significant market opportunity, with customer-driven demand across both business operations and industrial operations.
3. They are seeing strong enterprise demand for their “land and expand” selling model, with the opportunity to further expand the relationship across the operations cloud platform.
4. They consistently innovate to expand their competitive advantage through new product offerings.
5. They are aiming to achieve durable profitable growth through solid revenue growth with significant operating margin expansion. I expect them to be profitable in 2026.
6. They have an excellent CEO and one of the best CFOs I’ve ever seen.
PD is a Buy up to $30 for a 2- to 5-year hold as their digital operations management Software-As-A-Service gains market share.
Primary Risk: Digital operations management is a competitive area.
Redwire (RDW – $17.68) won a contract from Aspera Biomedicines, a small drug company specializing in the development of cancer stem cell targeted therapies, to conduct space-based research and analysis on a new cancer treatment using Redwire’s Pharmaceutical In-space Laboratory (PIL-BOX) technology.
Aspera will use this mission to advance development of rebecsinib, a small molecule ADAR1 inhibitor recently cleared by the FDA to begin Phase 1 trials. Researchers at Aspera have analyzed data from two previous spaceflight experiments that showed that rebecsinib can inhibit expression of ADAR1, halting the progression of cancer stem cell propagation in triple-negative breast cancer organoid models, and behaving as a cancer “kill switch.” On this mission, Aspera researchers will analyze the crystal structure of ADAR1p150 with and without rebecsinib or intermediates. The results of this analysis could enhance opportunities to develop new drug formulations and a broader array of ADAR1 inhibitors.
Redwire also said its advanced lunar and Martian manufacturing technology, Mason, has passed Critical Design Review with NASA participation. Mason is a tool suite designed to operate on the Moon and Mars that will enable the construction of berms, landing pads and roads for future lunar and Martian habitats. The project is part of a $12.9 million award to prototype Mason for broader plans to support a long-term presence and exploration on the lunar surface. RDW is a Buy under $18 for a $36 first target as space exploration grows.
Primary Risk: A new competitor emerges.
Rocket Lab USA (RKLB – $26.45) successfully launched their 10th Electron mission for their multi-launch customer BlackSky.
They finally posted the webinar on the Geost acquisition I told you about last week (AUDIO HERE and SLIDES HERE and TRANSCRIPT HERE). CEO Peter Beck said: “Our acquisition of Geost will bring onboard critical technology and payloads that are relied upon by the Department of Defense for missile warning and tracking tactical intelligence and surveillance and reconnaissance as well as earth observation and space domain awareness. That now primes us to deliver the complete stack of mission-critical hardware for U.S. national security missions and opens up significant potential to reshape our business. Our track record with past acquisitions has shown that we have the resource, scale and expertise to transform critical subscale satellite technology into readily available product lines for our customers, and we fully intend to do the same with Geost’s technology.”
RKLB is a Buy up to $13 for my $30+ target as low earth orbit satellites and space exploration grow.
Primary Risk: A new competitor emerges.
Biotech MegaShift
If you can afford it – and it would not be too big a position in your portfolio – putting $2,000 into each of these speculative biotechs might be a good way to start. Buying these out-of-favor, fallen, or forgotten companies that can get important products through the FDA at very low market capitalizations seems like a good strategy to me.
Risks
Development-stage biotechs are subject to investor sentiment swings from wildly optimistic to excessively pessimistic – mostly the latter recently. After the Primary Risk for each company, I’ve added the clinical stage of their lead product, the probable time of their first FDA approval, and the probable time of their next financing.
As always, you need to think about an appropriate position size. You could buy a full position upfront and then just hold on, or buy some upfront and leave room to add more on the inevitable financings, transient clinical trial setbacks, and the like.
AbCellera Biologics (ABCL- $2.37) got its second authorization from Health Canada in two weeks. This one is to begin a Phase 1 trial for ABCL575, their investigational antibody antagonist targeting the OX40 ligand It is being developed for the treatment of moderate-to-severe atopic dermatitis, with potential applications to other inflammatory and autoimmune conditions. The Phase 1 study will begin in the September quarter. Buy ABCL up to $6 for a long-term hold to $30 or more.
Primary Risk: Partnered and owned drugs fail in the clinic.
Clinical stage of lead product: Partnered: Various Owned: Preclinical
Probable time of next FDA approval: 2027-2028
Probable time of next financing: 2026-2027 or never
Akebia Therapeutics (AKBA- $3.69) CFO Erik Ostrowski and Chief Commercial Officer Nik Grund presented at the Jefferies Global Healthcare Conference (AUDIO HERE). Erik said after talking to doctors before the launch, they thought the initial adopters would prescribe mostly for high ESA users and home dialysis patients, but they are seeing much wider adoption. That’s good news.
They initially thought they would be most available for fee-for-service Medicare patients, who are about 40% of the dialysis population. Another 40% are Medicare Advantage, which requires a negotiation between the dialysis provider and the plan sponsor, yet Medicare Advantage already accounted for 20% of their prescriptions in the March quarter. About 12% of their prescriptions are for home patients, which is in line with the dialysis community.
Mostly they are seeing prescriptions from small to medium size centers that account for about 150,000 of the 500,000 dialysis patients. Half of the doctors who have prescribed Vafseo in the small and medium centers also have patients in the big two dialysis organizations. One of the big two is going to run a 50 to 200 center pilot in the second half (200 centers is the equivalent of the 5th largest dialysis company in the US).
By the time TDAPA ends, they expect to be down to the typical ESA price of $2,500 a year. With 500,000 patients, that’s a $1 billion available market. They are continuing to run studies and generate data showing Vafseo is a superior drug.
Their non-dialysis meeting with the FDA will happen later this year and they expect to start a Phase 3 trial before yearend. It will be in about 1,500 patients and focus on cardiovascular outcomes versus standard of care. Because Vafseo is already approved and has been used in over 100,000 non-dialysis patients in Japan, I expect this trial to succeed. Only 28% of non-dialysis patients with anemia are getting therapy, and it is clear that patients who are anemic and move onto dialysis have worse outcomes than those who are not anemic.
The stock has been very strong. I think if it can get to $5 on it’s own, we could see a $10 bid from Amgen. Whether GSK will make a higher bid we’ll have to see.Buy AKBA up to $2 for the Vafseo launches in the EU, UK, and US.
Primary Risk: Vafseo doesn’t sell in the US.
Clinical stage of lead product: Approved
Probable time of next approval: 2026
Probable time of next financing: Never
TG Therapeutics (TGTX – $39.30) CEO Michael Weiss presented at the Jefferies Global Healthcare Conference (AUDIO HERE). He said the subcutaneous market has stabilized at about 40% of new CD-20 patients. Right now CD-20 is up to about 55% of all new patient starts as newly-trained doctors enter multiple sclerosis treatment.
There are three CD-20 companies. TGTX entered as the #3 company with a goal to be #1 over time. They have the best product at the best price and an experienced sales force to get there. Hold TGTX for a target price in a buyout of $40 or more.
Primary Risk: Briumvi, the MS drug, fails to sell.
Clinical stage of lead product: Approved
Probable time of next FDA approval: NM
Probable time of next financing: Never
Inflation MegaShift
Gold ($3,378.90) had another OK week, mostly on geopolitical tensions and maybe a little on the Congressional Budget Office’s calculation that President Trump’s big, beautiful tax bill could increase the deficit by over $2 trillion. Oh, and Elon Musk doesn’t like it either.
The fractal dimension is steadily consolidating that big move up, so we have to be patient.
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Cryptocurrencies
Cryptocurrencies are a diversifying asset that offer a unique opportunity to make (or lose!) a lot of money quickly.
Bitcoin (BTC-USD on Yahoo – $100,882.17) continues to consolidate in the $100,000 area, which is necessary to rebuild the energy for the next leg up. Don’t be fooled if the bitcoin whales drop it under $100,000 to try to panic some holders and pick up cheap coins.
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BTC-USD, ETH-USD, IBIT, and ETHA are Strong Buys.
Primary Risk: Bitcoin falls due to over-regulation or is surpassed by another cryptocurrency.
iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT- $57.87) remains the cheapest and easiest way to buy bitcoin. IBIT is a Buy for the 2028, 2032, and 2036 halvings.
Primary Risk:Bitcoin falls due to over-regulation or is surpassed by another cryptocurrency.
iShares Ethereum Trust (ETHA- $19.15) remains the cheapest and easiest way to buy ethereum. ETHA is a Buy for the coming explosion in token-funded start-ups.
Primary Risk: Ethereum falls due to over-regulation or is surpassed by another cryptocurrency.
Commodities
Oil – $63.30
Oil is up $2.36 this week as we learned that real Alberta wildfires that shut down almost 350,000 barrels a day of production outweigh fake oil add backs from OPEC. The recent global oil inventory builds we saw since late March are starting to wane. I expect global oil inventories to decline in the coming months, despite fears of OPEC+ (read: Saudi Arabia) increasing production.
The July 2026 Crude Oil Futures (CLN26.NYM – $60.72) are a Buy under $70 for a $200+ target. Only buy futures for all cash; do not use margin.
The United States 12 Month Oil Fund, LP (USL – $34.38) is a Buy under $40 for a $100+ target.
Vermilion Energy (VET – $6.97) sold the rest of their US assets for $120 million in cash, which they will use to repay debt. They expect to exit 2025 with net debt of $1.3 billion. They also cut the 2025 capital spending budget by $100 million, from a range of $730-$760 million to $630-$660 million.
Going forward, they will focus on their core gas-weighted assets in Canada and Europe. Full year and second half 2025 production will range between 117,000 to 122,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day, 68% natural gas-weighted in the second half of 2025. On a go-forward basis,they estimate that over 90% of production will come from their global gas portfolio and over 80% of capital is expected be allocated to these assets. VET is a buy under $11 for a target price of $24 or more.
Primary Risk: Oil prices fall.
* * * * *
RIP Roger Nichols, Composer
* * * * *
Your understanding the John George Trump-inspired 2025 energy pivot Editor,
Michael Murphy CFA
Founding Editor
New World Investor
All Recommendations
Priced 6/5/25. Check out the complete Portfolio page HERE.
Buys
These are the stocks everyone needs to own because transformative events are happening over the next year or two, and I expect to hold them long-term.
Tech Dominators
Apple Computer (AAPL – $200.63) – Buy under $205
Corning (GLW – $50.86) – Buy under $33, target price $60
Gilead Sciences (GILD – $110.48) – Buy under $90, first target price $120
Meta (META – $684.62) – Buy under $655 for a long-term hold
Micron Technology (MU – $106.29) – Buy under $102, first target price $140
Nvidia (NVDA – $139.99) – Buy under $125, first target price $180
Onsemi (ON – $49.54) – Buy under $60, first target price $100
Palantir (PLTR – $119.91) – Buy under $100, target price $150
PayPal (PYPL – $72.47) – Buy under $68, target price $136
Snap (SNAP – $8.20) – Buy under $11, target price $17+
SoftBank (SFTBY – $25.64) – Buy under $25, target price $50
Small Tech
Enovix (ENVX – $8.03) – Buy under $20; 4-year hold to $100+
First Trust NASDAQ Cybersecurity ETF (CIBR – $73.29) – Buy under $70; 3- to 5-year hold
Fastly (FSLY – $7.54) – Buy under $10 for a 3- to 5-year hold to $50+
PagerDuty (PD – $15.38) – Buy under $30; 2- to 5-year hold
QuickLogic (QUIK – $5.48) – Buy under $10, target price $40
Redwire (RDW – $17.68) – Buy under $18, first target price $36
Rocket Lab (RKLB – $26.45) – Buy under $13, target price $30+
ARK Venture Fund (ARKVX – $30.29) – Buy for SpaceX
$20-for-$1 Biotech
AbCellera Biologics (ABCL – $2.37) – Buy under $6, target $30+
Akebia Biotherapeutics (AKBA – $3.69) – Buy under $2, target $20
Compass Pathways (CMPS – $4.53) – Buy under $20, hold a long time for a 10x return
Editas Medicines (EDIT – $1.80) – Buy under $6 for a double in 12 months and a long-term hold to much higher prices
Inovio (INO – $2.12) – Buy under $14, hold a long time
Medicenna (MDNAF – $0.65) – Buy under $3, first target $20, then maybe $40
ScyNexis (SCYX – $0.89) – Buy under $3, target price $20, then $50
Inflation
A Short-Sale or REO House – ($415,400) – Hold
Bag of Junk Silver – ($35.87) – hold through silver bull market
Sprott Gold Miners ETF (SGDM – $45.86) – Buy under $28, target price $50
Sprott Junior Gold Miners ETF (SGDJ – $52.30) – Buy under $39, target price $100
Sprott Physical Gold and Silver Trust (CEF – $30.19) – Buy under $18, target price $30
Global X Silver Miners ETF (SIL – $48.85) – Buy under $30, target price $50
Coeur Mining (CDE – $9.46) – Buy under $5, target price $20
Dakota Gold (DC – $3.83) – Buy under $2.50, target price $6
First Majestic Mining (AG – $8.41) – Buy under $11, next target price $23
Paramount Gold Nevada (PZG – $0.58) – Buy under $1, first target price $10
Sandstorm Gold (SAND – $9.53) – Buy under $10, target price $25
Sprott Inc. (SII – $61.98) – Buy under $40, target price $70
Cryptocurrencies
Bitcoin (BTC-USD – $100,882.17) – Buy
iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT – $57.87) – Buy
Ethereum (ETH-USD – $2,426.14)– Buy
iShares Ethereum Trust (ETHA- $19.15) – Buy
Commodities
Crude Oil Futures – July 2026 (CLN26.NYM – $60.72) – Buy under $70; $200+ target
United States 12 Month Oil Fund, LP (USL – $34.38) – Buy under $40; $100+ target
Vermilion Energy (VET – $6.97) – Buy under $11; $24 target
Energy Fuels (UUUU – $5.58) – Buy under $8; $30 target
EQT (EQT – $55.33) – Buy under $35; $70 first target
Freeport McMoRan (FCX – $41.69) – Buy under $44; $65 target within two years
Holds
These are holds but not sells – yet. They could get moved back to one of the buy categories if their prices drop or outlook improves, or they could become sell recommendations in the future.
TG Therapeutics (TGTX – $39.30) – Hold for buyout at $40+
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I’ve been following NervGen for a long time. Based on its news release on Monday, June 2, where they announced positive results of Phase 2 trial for spinal cord injury I think it would make a good addition to the $20 for $1 biotech list. Thanks.
Problem is the results were not overwhelmingly positive, with a patient improving in the placebo group – dont you agree?
Sure, but as Chris said, half of the treated group had decent GRASSP results, better than all but ONE of the placebo group. Fuck statistics, a pseudoscience. This trial met its goals. Obviously more trials will be done, which will take time and money. Just don’t ask which stock is most likely to double in a year. NGENF is a long term intelligent speculation for life-changing benefits to patients and investors. And don’t invest like a short term momentum investor who is merely a trend follower and gets hurt if he buys after runups.
JGMD – Im 68 years old, I dont have time for these incubator companies to take 20 years to get thru tests, trials, and HOPE it works and even then theres no guarantee the company will thrive financially or be bought to benefit share holders. Ive been burned by several biotechs many on this site that fizzled after years of hokding. Lets be clear, im looking for near term financial growth double or better – not sure why you woukdnt be also or is making money to enjoy while youre still alive not your goal? So again, Im looking to double my investment in a year, nit in 10 years
Steve, I’m 72 and have the same concerns as you. The usual financial advice for people our age is to hold bonds, cash, CD’s, and blue chip stocks only. Annuities are merely good dividend payers. Yes, I’ve been burned by many NWI near total losses. My present big gains in TGTX and AKBA have recovered these losses. Louis Navellier is possibly the most appropriate guru to follow. If you want to just do what he says without wasting lots of time on your own confirmatory due diligence, that’s OK. But to double your money in a year there is also highly unlikely. He has had many modest losers, many modest gainers and only a few big winners. To increase your odds of doubling money in a year, you must accept risk and invest prudently in intelligent speculations. But NEVER NEVER think you will be guaranteed that double in ANY time frame. You could spend lots of time on DD for blue chips, but for the modest total returns, it is mostly a waste of time. You could just buy SPY and be happy. There are a few happy subscribers here who do lots of DD, but are skillful in timing. They NEVER buy high after runups. They trade, and often use options. I am not as skillful, but use my common sense as I’ve described here. My best gain recently has been TGTX. I bought many years ago at $5, and more at $7 about 2 years ago. When I bought at $5, I had no idea of when it would pay off, and then at $7 it was a scary buy when the shorts were badmouthing the company. My most recent buy was CAPR 2 weeks ago. It was scary, when the Adcom was announced, so I only bought a small position. So far it has doubled, and looks to be headed much higher. But DO NOT buy at the current price because you don’t want to miss out. My strategy is to buy more if the Adcom in July is lukewarm and the stock has a major plunge. But NO GUARANTEES and I could be burned again. NGENF is a big success for patients, but the long term gains expected by Chris, Karen and myself are by no means guaranteed and we must be patient. But my biggest ever long term gain has been Taiwan Semi which I still hold. I bought over 20 years ago at $8 when MM had Technology Investing. It is now around $200. Again, I didn’t know when or if it would pay off. I never asked the question of when or if I would double my investment.
I have lots of cash to enjoy myself. But I have visited lots of countries and seen enough churches and small towns. 30 years ago, I tried to buy old Italian master violins in my price range, but never could trust the certificates from respected authorities. The physical condition of these violins was also questionable. A great sounding instrument today might be junk later. Today, these violins are worth over $1 million. I missed out. I met many wealthy amateurs who have these instruments. But they are lousy musicians who sound like chicken scratches on these expensive violins. But I have a beautiful tone on my modest 1890 American violin I bought in 1990 for $2000, now worth over $50K. We can be happy with modest means if we cultivate good values.
You sir are certainly not short on advice, stock, life and otherwise and your posts are lengthy but apprecisted. Im confused with your strategy on CAPR – you seem to think the ADCOM will drop the price, if the drug is so good why wouldnt the ADCOM be strongky positive and drive the price up?
The FDA is likely to approve deramiocel even with small numbers of patients because there is no existing therapy that helps much and the objective cardiac measurements are compelling. But the Adcom contains pigheaded academic intellectual assholes who make their living pontificating about the science of double blind controlled studies and larger numbers of patients in phase 3 trials. If such assholes witnessed a murder on the street and you asked them whether bullets kill, they would say a double blind placebo controlled trial is the only way to know the absolute truth. I say line up a group of fellow assholes and let them witness a colleague being shot to death. If any of the witnesses still say bullets don’t kill until proven by further double blind studies, shoot them all until the last man recants his double blind religion.
The Adcom contains supposed experts in the field, and the FDA wants to cover itself by getting opinions of these people. The FDA is under enormous pressure to approve treatments for tragic diseases like muscular dystrophy whose victims don’t live past 30. The Adcom people are just armchair consultants who aren’t under political pressure. So a great investment scenario is if the Adcom is lukewarm or even slightly negative, the stock drops from $14 to $5-8. Buy aggressively for expectation that the FDA will approve on or before 8/31. A decent outcome is if the Adcom is positive and my small stake goes from $7.60 to $30 or more. I just HATE to chase any stock. Those who chase stocks are the “greater fools” who are victims of the stock promotors who bought cheap.
I almost got confused between CAPR and NGENF, but they are much the same situation.
Whats the ADCOM date? So if you strongly believe the FDA will approve it on 8/30 then you cant get hurt buying now, correct? If I wait and hope for negative ADVOM but its positive, I lose out – thoughts?
Tough question. The stock could plunge to $5-8 even from shorts badmouthing the stock because they actually are longs who would like to get in cheaper. Even with a positive Adcom in July sometime, this could happen. This is how I added to my TGTX at $7 about 2 years ago when shorts were vicious. Nothing is guaranteed. There have been politically poisoned situations which sank FDA approvals that were scientifically sound. With CAPR, the FDA agreed to accept the protocol CAPR submitted and said there are no issues with the application. But then on PDUFA deliberations, some smart ass reviewer changes his mind a little, and the thing gets narrowly rejected. Maybe a reviewer is friendly or gets paid off by Big Pharma to reject a drug. THIS HAPPENS NOT UNCOMMONLY. I recently bought a little URGN recommended in the Yahoo TGTX board. It was thought to be in the bag for approval. But someone changed his mind and their new drug had a negative Adcom. I took the loss, although the stock has rebounded. It still may get rejected. These Adcom and FDA guys are scumbags, so you can understand my anger.
The odds are that if you buy CAPR at $13, you’ll eventually make great money, but you shouldn’t go big at this price. Wait for big dips to go big.
I think CAPR has a very good management team. They are ready for AD COM,doing 2 mock meetings already. They welcome it. Their drug will fly off the shelves, once approved. They have everything in place, and enough cash to last at least 18 months. They just raised funds at $17.00 dollars last October. Listen to the last investor meeting a month ago, the CEO Linda was extremely confident. Huge market, especially with SRPT’s drug causing the death of a child 2 months ago. That company hit $ 165-$170 a share upon approval, and it was questionable at best, because the last FDA Dir. over-ruled the AD COM vote. It is easily going over $ 100 a share, and beyond. Follow Quito Yume and RogerTrades on Stockwits, they are very good
I am also excited about CAPR, but how to play it and accumulate more shares? The best time may be just after a lukewarm Adcom after academics criticize small numbers and lack of placebo controls. A lot can happen before PDUFA on 8/31. See my post below shortly after yours.
Steve, I respectfully disagree. Small n, but the arm MEP arm data shows that the drug works in humans and continues to improve the longer they are on the drug, strongly implying that a higher dose or duration would cause continued improvement. Half of the people who got the drug improved GRASSP scores by 4 or more points (4, 4, 8, 9 and 11). Those are eye-popping for chronic cases if you understand GRASSP. NervGen meets the FDA criteria for Accelerated Approval. If granted, whether on this data or with additional data from new recipients who were in the placebo group, 291 could be approved for marketing in a few months and only be required to do post-approval studies.
The fact is no drug works 100% for everyone. NervGen has now shown their drug indeed is safe and, for some people, effective. I see the floodgates being opened now for trials in plenty other neurological disorders (including the Holy Grail of biotech).
Good idea, except for the fact that NGENF is illiquid, except when there is news. Trials are SLOW SLOW SLOW in enrolling and getting done, so 99% of the time trading is illiquid.
Enjoy the Musk and Trump show! It sounds like they are married! Manufacturing is NOT Fixed. The economy is starting to stall . Employment numbers are consistently falling. Powell needs to cut rates yesterday but his ego like Z man from Ukraine keeps getting in his way. In the meantime thousands of young people in Ukraine and Russia will die for stupidity. World leaders need to come together and put massive pressure on Putin and Zman. Ukraine has already lost over 30 percent of its population (youth) . Ukraine’s demographics has been damaged for decades. It may take decades to recover, if ever! Just say’in!
Sounds like you think Zman should just hand over control of his country to Putin instead of fighting with the aid of the US, Germany and Poland and others to stay out from under Putin’s boot. It takes two to make peace and Putin has not exhibited any desire for peace.
Put a million % tariff on any country that does business with Russia? Monetary warfare has casualties, but is better than lives lost for nothing.
The reality is Russia can keep this insanity going for far longer than Ukraine. If Ukraine hasn’t won by now with the billions of aid and equipment the US has donated, it’s not going to happen. Both of them need to end it. Go back home and go on with their life. Negotiate your best deal and be done with the mutual self destruction! Ukraine is in danger of becoming non existent in the next 30-50 years because they don’t have enough young women left to produce enough babies to replace the older people who live there now. Unless maybe we ship all these illegal immigrants to Ukraine?
BSMD, on NGENF, what is “BD” regarding the FDA? “AA” means accelerated approval. I hate abbreviations in communications. What I do is write the full words out, then use the abbreviation if I want to use the term again in the same post. For example, “accelerated approval (AA).”
Sorry Breakthrough Designation
Thanks. What does breakthrough designation do for NGENF, compared to standard approval which requires phase 3 and would kill NGENF from long delays in phase 3 enrollment?
https://www.fda.gov/patients/fast-track-breakthrough-therapy-accelerated-approval-priority-review/breakthrough-therapy
Thanks. At this exciting time, BD announcement would boost the stock, although a news vacuum for the next 6 months could get the stock close to $1, then $1.50 on announcement of BD. Timing future stock buys will be very challenging.
At this point your right about BD, my understanding is that AA or Priority Review would be the best past forward. I’m still trying to review and understand the best past forward with the FDA.
AA would rocket the stock. It appears to me that NervGen qualifies for AA, but I recognize I may be biased.
https://www.fda.gov/drugs/nda-and-bla-approvals/accelerated-approval-program
I may be biased too, but all long investors are biased. Unmet need certainly applies to NGENF, so AA should be given. And GRASSP findings are real, practical improvements that probably have already helped the handful of responders, so they have already surpassed the surrogate endpoint standard. CAPR’s surrogate endpoint of increased LVEF is impressive enough, but GRASSP is even better for NGENF.
I’m with you Chris, my thoughts are the exact same!
MM, I posted this on the last report. Any feedback??
MM, I thought Medicenna was supposed to present at ASCO. Instead Fahar did a YouTube video with updates. Did they get kicked out again this year? I got in at .86 and thought I was getting a good deal. Today it’s trading at .67. What a joke!!
“RKLB is a Buy up to $13 for my $30+ target as low earth orbit satellites and space exploration grow.” RKLB was up 9% Friday to $28.90. Is it time to take profits? With Friday’s Musk/Trump spat, should we expect decreased space spending overall? Or more going to RKLB and RDW?
Steve, CAPR is a great example of recent euphoria. Last Fri, CEO Linda Marban took a picture of herself standing on top of a table with 2 champagne bottles at her feet, possibly celebrating a successful inspection of her San Diego manufacturing plant. That reminded me of Marilyn Monroe in the movie with Joe DiMaggio, her dress flying up from a wind from below. Marilyn was about 30 then, Linda now 62. Corrected for age, I’d say Linda outperformed Marilyn. Stocktwits was abuzz with excitement, They claimed the stock would zoom up from $14 on Fri to $17 today. NAH, it fell back to $13.38 at the close today. Clearly, last week’s big run anticipated this likely good news. Never chase flashy stocks or women.
Chase the women! They are more fun than stocks! 😉
Too bad you had an expensive divorce, as I recall.
I said “Chase the women!”, not “Marry them”! 😉
My past divorce comment was in reply to stock losses. I had said the worst loss I had in my life was divorce (when I lost 40% of net worth and got custody of our son, my wife was a severe postpartum depression case). For stocks, I typically use stop loss strategies to cash out to avoid larger losses.
People on this board complain about their losses in biotech stocks and risky tech stocks. Some in the past have complained that they lost most of their savings by blindly staying too long in stock recommendations that don’t pan out. Recommend that people here look up “stop loss order”, “mental stop loss order”, and especially “trailing stop loss order” if you don’t naturally get out of losing investments asap.
Good advice about stop losses, but it is often hard to know if a stock is hopeless or is a contrarian buy. Both situations are depressing. “Buy low, sell high” means buy when you are uncomfortable, sell when you’re giddy and euphoric. Analyze fundamentals to distinguish between factually hopeless and emotional fear. We think we are objective and realistic, but emotions often mess up our objectivity. Emotions are often based on going with the crowd when we are afraid of thinking independently. Most are fearful and are in the late stages of selling, creating low prices and buying opportunities.
I misapplied these principles when I recently sold URGN at a loss after the mildly negative Adcom. That Adcom was negative because the academics were critical of the lack of double blind controlled studies (DBCS). But today the FDA approved their new drug. I thought I was objective in selling out at a loss because the usual standards weren’t met. But today, CAPR had a big gain probably from the URGN news, since like URGN, it is applying without the DBCS. The FDA usually follows the Adcom vote, but we have a new FDA that wants to approve drugs for serious conditions where it is cumbersome/unethical to follow DBCS. The FDA agreed with the design of CAPR’s studies, so it is felt that CAPR will get approval even if the Adcom is negative. I got my much cheaper entry point for CAPR upon the announcement that they would have an Adcom and those guys would summarily reject anything that is not DBCS.
Last time I saw a woman with boots like Linda’s and standing on a table with a champagne bottle by her feet, the boots were just about the only thing she was wearing. Good for her.
A bear named creditgoo on ST claimed that Linda was delivering bad news and the champagne bottles were photoshopped from India. I retorted that bad news would not be delivered standing tall. The group was clapping in the photo.
Linda was correct. The PR today says that the inspection went well, except for minor documentation errors and other matters that are easy to correct. Good news, but CAPR needs a minor correction to enable fireworks, like a pitcher with a windup to throw his fastball.
More substance. In the last PPMD conference, cheap drugs like lisinopril and losartan were discussed briefly. These are popular drugs used for weak heart function in atherosclerotic heart disease in older people and to protect the heart and kidney in hypertension and diabetes. There are a few short 3, 6, 12 month studies using these drugs in young DMD cardiomyopathy boys. They help a little, But there is nothing as promising as the 3 year HOPE-OLE study for deramiocel. Linda will soon reveal the 4 year study results. She did say that losartan can be used adjunctively with deramiocel.
Good for Linda and the other woman?
Several years ago Dick Cheney mouth the words “deficits didn’t matter”. And that seems to be the mind set of our current politicians. Long term bond yields are 60 percent higher today than they were in 2022. And 1,100 percent higher than I. 2020. Long term borrowing costs are 11 TIMES greater than just 5 years ago. Washington has $9 TRILLION of its 36 Trillion debt due to mature in 2025. All that debt has to be refinanced at higher interest rates. Washington is SCREWED!! Interest rates have to come down! (Hello Powell you are a day late and a nickel short AGAIN.!! DAH!!
New World Investor for 6.12.25 is posted.