Dear New World Investor:
Tuesday’s headline Consumer Price Index for June was 2.7% year-over-year, an uptick from May’s 2.4% and a tenth above the consensus expectation for 2.6%. The month-over-month increase was 0.3%, also an uptick from May’s 0.1%. The acceleration was widely attributed to President Trump’s tariffs, but my suspicion is other factors are at work and the tariff impact, if any, lies ahead of us. Appliances and household equipment and furnishings prices increased less than 2%, and only make up around 1% of the CPI.
Tariffs are not inflationary. Tariffs are a tax, and no tax is ever inflationary. All taxes are deflationary because they reduce spending power.
On the Fed’s favorite core basis, excluding food and energy, the June CPI rose 2.9% year-over-year, right on expectations and ahead of May’s 2.8%. Month-over-month core prices increased 0.2%, less than the 0.3% expectation but also ahead of May’s 0.1% gain.
The Fed probably will read this as neutral data – inflation isn’t falling to 2%, but it’s not shooting up, either. There’s nothing here to cause them to cut the Fed funds rate on July 30. Even Wednesday’s Producer Price Index report for June that showed zero price increases from May for both the headline and core PPI (weren’t the tariffs supposed to kill us?) probably won’t budge the Fed because (1) it’s only one month, and (2) the relationship between the PPI and CPI is, to put it nicely, loose and erratic.
However, as the must-follow Jim Paulsen (@jimwpaulsen) of Paulsen Perspectives pointed out, the hard economic data is now slowing. He wrote: “All year long, the Federal Reserve has been saying that although economic reports had been disappointing, the economic data that turned south was primarily ‘soft data’ based only on surveys. ‘Hard economic reports’ – those derived from actually counting the number of widgets being produced in the factory rather than on opinions or feelings – continued to remain healthy. The Fed told us there was no reason to ease monetary policy simply because pessimism had increased when hard data was still showing strength.” But since the end of May that has changed.
Click for larger graphic h/t Paulsen Perspectives
The overall Economic Surprise Index peaked most recently last November just under +50, then dropped to -26 in late June, and has bounced back a little into positive territory. However, until early June, the Hard Data Economic Surprise Index remained in the +30 area and was still above +20 at the start of June. Since then, it has collapsed – and the Fed knows it. The first estimate of June quarter real GDP comes the morning of the next Fed meeting, June 30, and should be strong enough to give them cover to not cut rates. But I’m beginning to think a quarter-point cut at the following meeting on September 17 is likely.
This week I reviewed the buy limits and target prices on every recommendation. For the reasons below, I recommend stepping aside on Rocket Lab (RKLB) and selling Sprott Inc. (SII).
Market Outlook
The S&P 500 added 0.3% since last Thursday to another all-time intraday high today at 6,304.69 and closing high at 6,297.36. The Index is up 7.1% year-to-date. The Nasdaq Composite gained 1.2% and also booked record intraday and closing highs today. It is up 8.1% for the year. The SPDR S&P Biotech Exchange-Traded Fund (XBI) fell 0.3% and is down 2.2% year-to-date. The small-cap Russell 2000 dropped 0.4% but is still up 1.1% in 2025.
The fractal dimension is about to signal a new uptrend as the big drops from four months ago fall out of the calculation.
Click for larger graphic
Top 5
Changes this week: Removed RKLB (probably temporarily) from Long-Term for the reasons below.
Near-Term – chronological order
AKBA Akebia Therapeutics – Vafseo launch
SCYX ScyNexis – Resolution of GSK situation
EQT EQT – natural gas price rebound
USL United States 12 Month Oil Fund, LP – crude should rise quickly
FCX Freeport McMoRan – copper shortage
Long-Term – alphabetical order
ABCL AbCelllera – Will become a huge pharma royalty company
UUUU Energy Focus – Domestic uranium supplier
EQT EQT – largest US natural gas company
IBIT iShares Bitcoin Trust – Bitcoin is headed for $150,000
META Meta – a (the?) leader in the metaverse
PLTR Palantir – a (the?) leader in AI applications software
SCYX ScyNexis –First new antifungal in 20 years
Economy
The Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow model forecast for June quarter real GDP growth ticked down from +2.6% to +2.4% due to slightly softer personal consumption expenditures. The Blue Chip economists are just below that at +2.0%.
Click for larger graphic
Coming Events
All times below are ET, and most presentations and slides are archived on the companies’ websites so you can listen to them.
Tuesday, July 22
EQT – EQT – After the close – Earnings release; call tomorrow
Wednesday, July 23
EQT – EQT – 10:00am – Earnings conference call
FCX – Freeport McMoRan – 10:00am – Earnings conference call
Thursday, July 24
Short Interest – After the close
Big Tech: The Biotech & Digital Dominators MegaShift
There are at least four ways to make money in the stocks of these large, growing, dominant companies. You can:
* * Buy a stock and hold it
* * Buy a stock and write a call option against it
* * With a Level IV options account, write an out-of-the-money put option
* * With a Level IV options account, write an out-of-the-money put option and use part of the premium to buy an out-of-the-money call option
Apple (AAPL – $210.02) signed a $500 million rare earth magnet deal with MP Materials to buy American-made rare earth magnets developed at MP Materials’ facility in Fort Worth, Texas. They’ll also create a US supply chain alternative to China by building a new recycling facility at the mine in Mountain Pass, California, for processing recycled rare earth elements . Apple prepaid $200 million with deliveries scheduled to start in 2027.
The rumor in Silicon Valley is that Apple is planning to introduce its first upgrade to the Vision Pro headset before the end of this year to improve both performance and comfort. The updated Vision Pro will include a faster processor, components that can better run artificial intelligence, and a new strap to make it easier to wear the headset for long periods of time. In addition, word is that Apple is working on a completely redesigned model for 2027 that significantly reduces the weight of the headset.
The company is also working on other products, including a tethered headset and true AR glasses, with the goal of dominating the smart glasses category. I doubt they can catch either Meta or Snap in the technology, but Apple is great at supplying its huge installed base with more stuff they’ll buy. I am keeping AAPL as a Buy under $205.
Corning (GLW – $54.20) is moved to a Hold for an unchanged $60 target in 2025.
Gilead Sciences (GILD – $108.80) gets a raised long-term buy limit to $115 to a raised first target of $150.
Meta Platforms (META – $701.41) is laying a 31,000 mile undersea optical fiber cable to get ahead of the coming explosion in AI-related data transfer. Zuckerberg wants to own and control at least part of the data highway.
Zuck also poached two more OpenAI researchers for his Superintelligence Lab. Jason Wei’s main focus at OpenAI was o3 and deep research models. He came to the ChatGPT-maker after working on chain-of-thought research at Google. Hyung Won Chung overlapped with Wei at Google and worked on deep research and OpenAI’s o1 model. His research is focused on reasoning and agents. I am raising the META buy limit to $705 for a long-term hold.
Micron (MU – $113.25) gets a raised buy limit of $120 for an unchanged $140 first target.
Nvidia (NVDA – $173.00) jumped after the Trump Administration reversed course and said the company could sell its H20 GPU to China after all. The H20 GPU was designed specifically to comply with US government restrictions on exports of advanced chips to China, but the Trump administration halted those sales in April. The H20 win follows CEO Jensen Huang’s meeting last week with President Trump and meetings with Chinese government and industry officials Monday.
Although the H20 is nowhere near as powerful as Nvidia’s current Blackwell GPUs or even Huawei’s fastest GPUs, it’s still cost-competitive. Nvidia wrote off $4.5 billion of H20 inventory in the March quarter, and now they will be able to sell those chips with a zero cost. Wall Street analysts at Stifel, Bernstein, and William Blair said Nvidia could make as much as $15 billion in revenue from China in the second half of the year to hit around $20 billion from the region for its 2026 fiscal year, which ends next January. That would be an uptick from its roughly $17 billion in sales from China in the January 2025 fiscal year. Stifel raised their target price from $180 to $202.
Click for larger graphic h/t Yahoo Finance
According to Bloomberg, China is building dozens of data centers in the desert in a remote part of the northwestern Xinjiang region to fuel its AI ambitions. Chinese companies plan to buy more than 115,000 H20 chips to power those centers, which could then be used for training AI models.
CEO Jensen Huang did a wide-ranging interview on the strategic challenges and opportunities facing the US; the coming waves of AI, from generative to physical and agentic AI; the immense energy required to power this new age; the future of work in a world augmented by AI; and the defining geopolitical issue of our time: the U.S.-China technology competition.
I am moving NVDA to a Hold, still for a $180 first target.
Onsemi (ON – $59.41) is still a Buy under $60 for a $100 first target.
Palantir (PLTR – $153.99) analyst Dan Ives (@DivesTech) of Wedbush wrote: “Raising price target on Palantir to $160 as our recent checks and growing confidence in the company’s AI strategy is key to the bull thesis on Palantir playing out for the next 12 months. We believe Palantir has a golden path to become an AI stalwart the next few years.”
He’s right. I am moving PLTR to a Hold, now for a $180 first target and higher later.
PayPal Holdings (PYPL – $73.86) was upgraded from Sell to Neutral at Seaport Research. Always a good idea to cut your losses when you’re that wrong. I am raising the PYPL buy limit to $75, still for a double in three years.
Snap (SNAP – $9.91) did an interesting deal with McDonald’s. The 150 million MyMcDonald’s Rewards members could exchange points to redeem a one-month Snapchat+ subscription. This collaboration marked the first time for McDonald’s to offer a digital subscription service as a redeemable reward. Jackie Bruzek, VP: Customer Engagement at McDonald’s, said: “Our fans want rewards that bring them feel-good moments — they want experiences that are social, relevant, and rewarding. Offering a month of Snapchat+ as part of our Rewards program allows us to meet them where they are, in a way that feels fun and fresh.”
SNAP remains a Buy under $11 for a $17+ target.
SoftBank (SFTBY – $36.07) gets a raised buy limit to $35, still for a first target of $50 and then higher as the discount to hard book value disappears.
Small Tech
Enovix (ENVX – $15.93) will report earnings on July 31 and release a video highlighting its state-of-the-art, high-volume manufacturing facility in Malaysia recently used to produce the AI-1 smartphone battery, built to customer specifications, as Enovix prepares for broader availability and a production ramp later in 2025. See a short preview:
They released a supplemental FAQ on the warrant dividend distribution if you have any questions on margin accounts, eligibility mechanics, and trading logistics. ENVX remains a Buy up to $20 for a 4-year hold to $100+ as their BrakeFlow lithium-ion battery takes market share.
Primary Risk: A new competitor invents a better battery.
First Trust NASDAQ Cybersecurity Exchange-Traded Fund (CIBR – $74.05) gets a raised buy limit to $75 for a 3- to 5-year hold as the need for cybersecurity gets stronger and stronger at every level of society.
Primary Risk: A technology emerges to stop hackers.
Fastly (FSLY – $6.85) remains a Buy under $10 for a 3- to 5-year hold to $50+.
Primary Risk:Content and applications delivery networks are a competitive area.
PagerDuty (PD – $14.65) remains a Buy up to $30 for a 2- to 5-year hold as their digital operations management Software-As-A-Service gains market share.
Primary Risk: Digital operations management is a competitive area.
QuickLogic (QUIK – $6.25) remains a Buy up to $10 for my $40 target as their earnings repeatedly surprise Wall Street.
Primary Risk: Customers’ product introductions and associated royalties are unpredictable.
ARK Venture Fund (ARKVX – $31.94) remains a Buy for the SpaceX IPO.
Primary Risk: Cathie sells the stock before the IPO.
Rocket Lab USA (RKLB – $51.33) has blasted through (sorry) my $30 target. Neutron is going to dramatically improve their P&L, so the stock has become a bet on whether they can hit their deadline to launch it. I think they will, but one thing I have learned the hard way is the rocket business is unpredictable. We bought RKLB on September 2, 2021 at $11.63. Given the recent strength in the stock, I think we should step aside until Neutron launches.Sell RKLB for a 341% gain in four years.
Primary Risk: A new competitor emerges.
Biotech MegaShift
If you can afford it – and it would not be too big a position in your portfolio – putting $2,000 into each of these speculative biotechs might be a good way to start. Buying these out-of-favor, fallen, or forgotten companies that can get important products through the FDA at very low market capitalizations seems like a good strategy to me.
Risks
Development-stage biotechs are subject to investor sentiment swings from wildly optimistic to excessively pessimistic – mostly the latter recently. After the Primary Risk for each company, I’ve added the clinical stage of their lead product, the probable time of their first FDA approval, and the probable time of their next financing.
As always, you need to think about an appropriate position size. You could buy a full position upfront and then just hold on, or buy some upfront and leave room to add more on the inevitable financings, transient clinical trial setbacks, and the like.
AbCellera Biologics (ABCL- $3.90) remains a Buy up to $6 for a long-term hold to $30 or more.
Primary Risk: Partnered and owned drugs fail in the clinic.
Clinical stage of lead product: Partnered: Various Owned: Preclinical
Probable time of next FDA approval: 2027-2028
Probable time of next financing: 2026-2027 or never
Akebia Therapeutics (AKBA- $3.88) Chief Commercial Officer Nik Grund presented at the H.C. Wainwright 4th Annual Kidney Virtual Conference (AUDIO HERE). Nik said 40% of dialysis patients are either on high ESA therapy, which has cardiovascular risks, or home dialysis. Both groups benefit from an oral therapy like Vafseo that works quickly.
Doctors are titrating up an average of 40% for prescription renewals, which increases Akebia’s revenue by 40%.
Only about 30% of non-dialysis patients with anemia are getting treatment today, often using ESAs as a rescue therapy. Akebia has received FDA feedback on the protocol for their Phase 3 trial of Vafseo in non-dialysis patients and are planning a Type C meeting to be followed by starting the trial in the second half of 2025. I am raising the AKBA buy limit to $4 because I think GSK and/or Amgen will make a bid for the company.
Primary Risk: Vafseo doesn’t sell in the US.
Clinical stage of lead product: Approved
Probable time of next approval: 2026
Probable time of next financing: Never
Compass Pathways (CMPS – $3.88) entire C-suite did a 55-minute interview with HC Wainwright’s @Home Series (VIDEO HERE). Their goal was to respond to the stock price drop after the Phase 3 six-week top line data release. They did a great job, identifying what Wall Street thought and why they were so wrong. It’s clear to me that (1) COMP360 is going to be approved, and (2) it will be the first-line drug of choice for treatment-resistant depression, a serious disease with a huge market.
The Trump Administration seems to believe that psychedelics should be approved for Americans grappling with depression, trauma and other hard-to-treat conditions. Secretary of Health and Human Services Robert F. Kennedy Jr. recently told members of Congress: “This line of therapeutics has tremendous advantage if given in a clinical setting and we are working very hard to make sure that happens within 12 months.”
His suggested timeline for green-lighting psychedelic therapy surprised me because there won’t be an FDA application from Compass until 2027. Unless, of course, they are thinking of approving COMP360 based on the Phase 2 results. They could do that.
Compass is well along with designing a late-stage PTSD trial. CFO Teri Loxam said they have enough cash to get through the COMP006 26-week data release next year and start the PTSD trial.
Full disclosure: Neither my wife nor I have TRD, but a friend and one of our family members do. Perhaps for that reason, I am following the clinical development of COMP360 with a very critical eye, looking for weaknesses in the data. I don’t see any so far, and I hope RFK Jr.’s timeline is right. I am cutting the CMPS buy limit in half to $10 due solely to the stock price drop, still for a very long-term hold to an unchanged $200 target.
Primary Risk: Their drugs fail in the clinic.
Clinical stage of lead product: Phase 3
Probable time of first FDA approval: 2028
Probable time of next financing: Late 2025
Editas Medicine (EDIT – $2.73) remains a Buy under $6 – yeah, I know it’s way under – for a double in 12 months and a long-term hold to much higher prices.
Primary Risk: Other companies’ gene-sequencing drugs fail in the clinic.
Clinical stage of lead product: Partnered: Approved. Owned: Going into the clinic mid-2025.
Probable time of next FDA approval: 2028
Probable time of next financing: Late 2026 or never
Inovio (INO – $1.37) Chief Medical Officer Michael Sumner presented DMAb Technology: The Transformational Potential of Next Gen DNA Medicine in Rare Disease at the Orphan Drug Summit (SLIDES HERE).
Click for larger graphic
An ongoing Phase 1 trial with 44 participants so far shows that it works:
Click for larger graphic
Michael said their DMab platform has demonstrated long-term protein secretion with good safety data. It is suitable for the treatment of many rare diseases. Inovio is looking for development partnerships. I am cutting the INO buy limit from $14 to $5, still for a very long-term hold as DNA medicines succeed.
Primary Risk: Their drugs fail in the clinic.
Clinical stage of lead product: Phase 3
Probable time of first FDA approval: Early 2026
Probable time of next financing:After FDA approval in 2026
Medicenna (MDNAF – $0.64) is a Buy under an unchanged $3 limit, which is far above the current stock price, for a first target of $20.
Primary Risk: Their drugs fail in the clinic.
Clinical stage of lead product: Entering Phase 3
Probable time of first FDA approval: 2026
Probable time of next financing: 2025
ScyNexis (SCYX – $0.74) remains a Buy under $2.50 for a first target price of $20 after ibrexafungerp is approved for hospital use and a buyout at $50.
Primary Risk: Ibrexafungerp fails to sell.
Clinical stage of lead product: Approved
Probable time of next FDA approval: 2026
Probable time of next financing: Never
TG Therapeutics (TGTX – $39.19) remains a Hold for a target price in a buyout of $40 or more.
Primary Risk: Briumvi, the MS drug, fails to sell.
Clinical stage of lead product: Approved
Probable time of next FDA approval: NM
Probable time of next financing: Never
Inflation MegaShift
In the past, whenever the commodities-to-gold ratio plunges to an extreme low and then turns up, it has flagged the start of new and substantial cyclical bull markets in commodities.
Click for larger graphic h/t Calllum Thomas
Gold ($3,345.00) is racing towards full consolidation. The fractal dimension is almost up to 55 with the price of gold close to its all-time highs. This is an ideal setup for a major upleg starting soon.
Click for larger graphic
Silver is going to be even more explosive. It is up 32.7% year-to-date and hit a 14-year high at $39.14 an ounce on Monday, the most since September 2011.
Click for larger graphic h/t @charliebilello
Silver has a long way to go to catch up with the recent gold move. My silver recommendations are:
Buy A Bag of Junk Silver ($38.42) for a Hold until 2026-2027.
Primary Risk: Prices of precious metals fall due to US dollar strength.
Exchange-Traded & Closed-End Funds
Global X Silver Miners Exchange-Traded Fund (SIL – $48.79) gets a double on both the buy limit to $60 and my target price to $100. The silver miners should outperform both the large and junior gold miners in the next upleg for precious metals that will run until 2024-2025.
Primary Risk: Prices of precious metals fall due to US dollar strength.
Sprott Physical Gold and Silver Trust (CEF – $30.89) gets a raised buy limit to $35 and the target price to $60.
Primary Risk: Prices of precious metals fall due to US dollar strength.
Miners & Related
Coeur Mining (CDE – $9.18) gets the buy limit doubled to $10, still for a $20 target as gold and silver go higher.
Primary Risk: Prices of precious metals fall due to US dollar strength.
First Majestic (AG – $8.48) remains a Buy under $11 for a $23 next target price as production increases and the price of silver rises.
Primary Risk: Prices of precious metals fall due to US dollar strength.
And our gold recommendations:
Sprott Gold Miners Exchange-Traded Fund (SGDM – $44.03) has done well since I recommended it on May 18, 2015 at $18.72. I am raising the SGDM buy limit to $50 (formerly my first target) and the target price to $75. The miners should outperform the metal in the next upleg for gold that will run until 2026-2027.
Primary Risk: Prices of precious metals fall due to US dollar strength.
ALPS Sprott Junior Gold Miners Exchange-Traded Fund (SGDJ – $50.31) was recommended the same day at $28.52. I am raising the SGDJ buy limit to $60 and leaving the target price at $100. The small miners should outperform the large miners, although with more volatility, in the next upleg for gold that will run until 2024-2025.
Primary Risk: Prices of precious metals fall due to US dollar strength.
Dakota Gold (DC – $4.16) gets moved to a Hold for a $6 target as gold goes higher.
Primary Risk: Robert Quartermain doesn’t find enough gold. Secondary risk: Prices of precious metals fall due to US dollar strength.
Paramount Gold Nevada (PZG – $0.70) had good news. The Bureau of Land Management said that following recent changes to NEPA, the draft Environmental Impact Statement is now expected to be published in early August and the final EIS and Record of Decision are now expected to be published concurrently in December 2025. PZG remains a Buy under $1 for a $10 target as gold moves higher.
Primary Risk: Prices of precious metals fall due to US dollar strength.
Probable time of next financing: 2025
Sandstorm Gold (SAND – $9.53) said in the June quarter they sold approximately 15,100 attributable gold equivalent ounces and realized record preliminary revenue of $51.4 million compared to 17,414 attributable gold equivalent ounces and $41.4 million in revenue for the June 2024 quarter. Their
preliminary cost of sales was $5.3 million, resulting in record cash operating margins of approximately $2,980 per attributable gold equivalent ounce.
As at June 30, 2025, the outstanding balance on their revolving credit facility was approximately $315 million, with an undrawn and available balance of $310 million. I’m changing SAND to a Hold for the Royal Gold acquisition.
Primary Risk: Prices of precious metals fall due to US dollar strength.
Sprott Inc. (SII – $73.97) has hit my target price. Sell SII.
Primary Risk: Prices of precious metals fall due to US dollar strength.
Cryptocurrencies
Cryptocurrencies are a diversifying asset that offer a unique opportunity to make (or lose!) a lot of money quickly.
Bitcoin (BTC-USD on Yahoo – $118,933.38) sailed over $120,000 for the first time ever on Monday before settling back as institutions continued piling into bitcoin exchange-traded funds. Last Thursday, bitcoin ETFs logged their biggest day of inflows of 2025 at $1.18 billion. Ether ETFs recorded their second-biggest day of inflows ever at $383.1 million. That caused over $750 million in short liquidations.
As I said last week, this is “Crypto Week” in Congress as the US government is FINALLY making a concerted regulatory push to “make America the crypto capital of the world” (their words, not mine). The dam is about to break. There are three key bills.
The first is the GENIUS Act, which gives the US its first real stablecoin framework. Stablecoins are digital US dollars on the blockchain. They are the only way to send $10,000 to a friend halfway around the world in seconds, from your phone, for less than a penny. Today, more than $250 billion in stablecoins circulate globally. Stablecoin volumes just surpassed Visa and MasterCard transactions.
The GENIUS Act requires stablecoins to be fully backed by cash or short-term US Treasuries. It mandates audits and puts issuers under clear federal and state supervision. It already passed the Senate.
The second bill is the Anti-CBDC Surveillance State Act, which bans the US government from ever creating a Central Bank Digital Currency.
The third and most important bill is the CLARITY Act that addresses how tokens are classified. If a token is decentralized, like bitcoin and ethereum, it’s a commodity. If it’s not decentralized, it’s a security. Early-stage token projects get three years to decentralize before becoming subject to SEC enforcement. Developers would finally have a clear path to launch compliant tokens in the US and regulatory certainty would gives the big financial institutions comfort in buying bitcoin and ethereum.
Click for larger graphic
Michael Saylor’s Strategy (MSTR) acquired 4,225 more bitcoin for ~$472.5 million at ~$111,827 per bitcoin. As of last Sunday, they hold 601,550 coins acquired for ~$42.87 billion at ~$71,268 per bitcoin. Those coins are worth $71.54 billion today – an unrealized gain of $28.67 billion.
With Monday’s purchase announcement of an additional 683 bitcoin for ~$79 million at an average price of ~$116,213 per coin, Sequans Communications (SQNS) joined the exclusive 1,000 bitcoin club to rank #31 among public bitcoin treasury companies. I don’t see how we have another bear market with this many buyers.
Click for larger graphic h/t @BenWerkman
BTC-USD, ETH-USD, IBIT, and ETHA are Strong Buys.
Primary Risk: Bitcoin falls due to over-regulation or is surpassed by another cryptocurrency.
iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT- $67.65) remains the cheapest and easiest way to buy bitcoin. IBIT is a Buy for the 2028, 2032, and 2036 halvings.
Primary Risk:Bitcoin falls due to over-regulation or is surpassed by another cryptocurrency.
Ethereum (ETH-USD on Yahoo – $3,404.90) shot up after Peter Thiel’s Founders Fund disclosed a 9,1% stake in the crypto mining and services company Bitmine Immersion Technologies (BNMR). Bitmine plans to be the MicroStrategy of ether, raising money to buy as many coins as possible. ETH-USD is a Buy.
Primary Risk: Bitcoin extensions outperform Ethereum.
iShares Ethereum Trust (ETHA- $25.88) remains the cheapest and easiest way to buy ethereum. ETHA is a Buy for the coming explosion in token-funded start-ups.
Primary Risk: Ethereum falls due to over-regulation or is surpassed by another cryptocurrency.
Commodities
Oil – $67.61
Oil fluctuated in a tight range, slipping as the dollar strengthened and traders doubted President Trump’s plan to pressure Moscow would disrupt Russian exports any time soon – if ever. The administration intends to impose 100% tariffs on Russia only if the hostilities don’t end with a deal in 50 days, allaying fears of near-term supply tightness. JPMorgan Chase said: “Since the start of the Ukraine war, it has become evident that halting Russian oil trade by targeting Russian sellers or the numerous shippers and payment intermediaries is nearly impossible.”
Prices briefly popped on comments by Energy Secretary Chris Wright that the US is considering creative ways to refill the Strategic Petroleum Reserve, before resuming their decline.
OPEC+ pushed back against an International Energy Agency report that Saudi Arabia’s crude production surged in June. The cartel’s figures show Riyadh complied with its quota. The kingdom last week said its excess production was put in storage and wasn’t delivered to the market.
In Asia, traders assessed a relatively strong showing from crude processors in China, the world’s largest oil importer. Refining throughput rose to more than 15.2 million barrels a day in June, the strongest pace since September 2023, according to Bloomberg. A gauge of apparent demand also improved. But investors appeared to view the China-related strength as front-end loading ahead of potential tariffs rather than a sustainable demand signal.
Their overriding focus for crude remains their expected oversupply in the second half of the year, which is not going to happen. I think US shale production will fall, Saudi exports will be flat, and demand will continue to grow, leading to much higher oil prices.
The July 2026 Crude Oil Futures (CLN26.NYM – $63.07) remain a Buy under $70 for a $200+ target. Only buy futures for all cash; do not use margin.
The United States 12 Month Oil Fund, LP (USL – $36.43) remains a Buy under $40 for a $100+ target.
Vermilion Energy (VET – $7.83) closed their previously announced sale of the Saskatchewan assets for gross proceeds of C$415 million. VET remains a Buy under $11 for a target price of $24 or more.
Primary Risk: Oil prices fall.
Energy Fuels (UUUU – $9.16) shot up after the Apple/MP Materials deal because UUUU has a rare earths processing facility. There is no shortage of rare earth raw material, there is a major shortage of processing ability. This is no accident. As George Friedman of Geopolitical Futures pointed out, when China lacks a dominant share of a strategically important resource, it identifies the earliest stage in the value chain that can be monopolized through financial brute force and arms its national champions with the flexibility to ignore environmental concerns. Allowing domestic producers to pollute amounts to a hidden but decisive subsidy that can allow a nation to monopolize strategic industries. No country has perfected this art more than China.
Among the critical minerals China has successfully cornered are the rare earth metals, and the primary means by which it achieved near-total dominance was by capturing the step at which the mined material, a concentrated mix of many valuable metals, is purified into individual components suitable for use in various military and industrial applications. Copious amounts of waste are produced along that processing journey, and treating such waste to Western standards became economically unfeasible at the market prices that prevailed after China entered the field.
As The New York Times recently wrote: China Has Paid a High Price for Its Dominance in Rare Earths: “Chinese mines and refineries produce most of the world’s rare earth metals and practically all of a few crucial kinds of rare earths. This has given China’s government near complete control over a critical choke point in global trade. But for decades in northern China, toxic sludge from rare earth processing has been dumped into a four-square-mile artificial lake. In south-central China, rare earth mines have poisoned dozens of once-green valleys and left hillsides stripped to barren red clay.
“Achieving dominance in rare earths came with a heavy cost for China, which largely tolerated severe environmental damage for many years. The industrialized world, by contrast, had tighter regulations and stopped accepting even limited environmental harm from the industry as far back as the 1990s, when rare earth mines and processing centers closed elsewhere.”
It is difficult to compete on price when your competitor’s idea of a water treatment plant is a pipeline to the river.
Click for larger graphic h/t Doomberg
UUUU remains a buy under $8 for a $30 target.
Primary Risk: Uranium prices fall.
EQT (EQT – $58.75) reports June quarter results after the close next Tuesday with a conference call Wednesday morning. Wall Street is expecting revenues up 86.6% – not a misprint – to $1.78 billion with earnings of 42¢ per share in a ridiculously wide range from -8¢ to +68¢. Guidance should be for $2.1 billion and 62¢ in an equally ridiculous wide range from +9¢ to +82¢. I am doubling the EQT buy limit to $70 in advance of earnings with a long-term hold for much higher prices.
Primary Risk:Natural gas prices fall.
Freeport McMoRan (FCX – $44.46) also reports June quarter results next Thursday morning. The consensus expectation is revenues will be up a modest 4.6% to $6.93 billion and they will report earnings of 44¢ per share. September quarter guidance, if any, should be for $7.19 billion in revenues with 51¢ earnings per share. I am raising the FCX buy limit to $50 and raising the target price from $65 to $70 within two years.
Primary Risk: Copper prices fall.
* * * * *
RIP Connie Francis
* * * * *
Astrith Baltsan explains Gershwin with the Israeli Philharmonic
* * * * *
Your believing the ocean is the new frontier Editor,
Michael Murphy CFA
Founding Editor
New World Investor
All Recommendations
Priced 7/17/25. Check out the complete Portfolio page HERE.
Buys
These are the stocks everyone needs to own because transformative events are happening over the next year or two, and I expect to hold them long-term.
Tech Dominators
Apple Computer (AAPL – $210.02) – Buy under $205
Gilead Sciences (GILD – $108.80) – Buy under $115, first target price $150
Meta (META – $701.41) – Buy under $705 for a long-term hold
Micron Technology (MU – $113.26) – Buy under $120, first target price $140
Onsemi (ON – $59.41) – Buy under $60, first target price $100
PayPal (PYPL – $73.86) – Buy under $75, target price $150
Snap (SNAP – $9.91) – Buy under $11, target price $17+
SoftBank (SFTBY – $36.07) – Buy under $35, target price $50+
Small Tech
Enovix (ENVX – $15.93) – Buy under $20; 4-year hold to $100+
First Trust NASDAQ Cybersecurity ETF (CIBR – $74.05) – Buy under $75; 3- to 5-year hold
Fastly (FSLY – $6.85) – Buy under $10 for a 3- to 5-year hold to $50+
PagerDuty (PD – $14.65) – Buy under $30; 2- to 5-year hold
QuickLogic (QUIK – $6.25) – Buy under $10, target price $40
ARK Venture Fund (ARKVX – $31.94) – Buy for SpaceX
$20-for-$1 Biotech
AbCellera Biologics (ABCL – $3.90) – Buy under $6, target $30+
Akebia Biotherapeutics (AKBA – $3.88) – Buy under $4, target $20
Compass Pathways (CMPS – $3.88) – Buy under $10, hold a long time for a 20x return
Editas Medicines (EDIT – $2.73) – Buy under $6 for a double in 12 months and a long-term hold to much higher prices
Inovio (INO – $1.37) – Buy under $5, hold a long time
Medicenna (MDNAF – $0.64) – Buy under $3, first target $20, then maybe $40
ScyNexis (SCYX – $0.74) – Buy under $2.50, target price $20, then $50
Inflation
A Short-Sale or REO House – ($415,400) – Hold
Bag of Junk Silver – ($38.42) – hold through silver bull market
Sprott Gold Miners ETF (SGDM – $44.03) – Buy under $50, target price $75
Sprott Junior Gold Miners ETF (SGDJ – $50.31) – Buy under $60, target price $100
Sprott Physical Gold and Silver Trust (CEF – $30.89) – Buy under $35, target price $60
Global X Silver Miners ETF (SIL – $48.79) – Buy under $60, target price $100
Coeur Mining (CDE – $9.18) – Buy under $10, target price $20
First Majestic Mining (AG – $8.48) – Buy under $11, next target price $23
Paramount Gold Nevada (PZG – $0.70) – Buy under $1, first target price $10
Cryptocurrencies
Bitcoin (BTC-USD – $118,933.38) – Buy
iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT – $67.65) – Buy
Ethereum (ETH-USD – $3,475.84)– Buy
iShares Ethereum Trust (ETHA- $25.88) – Buy
Commodities
Crude Oil Futures – July 2026 (CLN26.NYM – $63.07) – Buy under $70; $200+ target
United States 12 Month Oil Fund, LP (USL – $36.43) – Buy under $40; $100+ target
Vermilion Energy (VET – $7.83) – Buy under $11; $24+ target
Energy Fuels (UUUU – $9.16) – Buy under $8; $30 target
EQT (EQT – $58.75) – Buy under $70; hold for much higher prices ($100+)
Freeport McMoRan (FCX – $44.46) – Buy under $50; $70 target within two years
Holds
These are holds but not sells – yet. They could get moved back to one of the buy categories if their prices drop or outlook improves, or they could become sell recommendations in the future.
Corning (GLW – $54.20) – Hold for $60+
Nvidia (NVDA – $173.00) – Hold for $180 first target price
Palantir (PLTR – $153.99) – Hold for $180 first target price
TG Therapeutics (TGTX – $39.19) – Hold for buyout at $40+
Dakota Gold (DC – $4.16) – Hold for $6 target price
Sandstorm Gold (SAND – $9.53) – Hold for Royal Gold acquisition
Sell
Rocket Lab (RKLB – $51.33) – Step aside until Neutron launches
Sprott Inc. (SII – $73.97) – Sell, hit my $70 target
Publisher: GwynRose LLC, 5348 Vegas Drive, Suite 868, Las Vegas, NV 89108
New World Investor does not act as a personal investment adviser or advocate the purchase or sale of any security or investment for any specific individual. The recommendations and analysis presented to members are for the exclusive use of members. Members should be aware that investment markets have inherent risks and there can be no guarantee of future profits. Likewise, past performance does not assure future results. Recommendations are subject to change at any time. Nothing in this presentation should be considered personalized investment advice. No communication to you by Michael Murphy or any of our employees or contractors should be deemed as personalized investment advice.
Copyright ©GwynRoseLLC 2025
New World Investor Mastermind Group
1. Post unto others as you would have them post unto you.
2. Keep it clean, like a 1950s family television show. Your alter ego can run free on Twitter.
3. NO PERSONAL ATTACKS! If you don’t like the stock, don’t trash the person. Everyone is responsible for their own due diligence and investments.
4. Don’t post here about politics or religion – you aren’t going to change anyone’s mind. Again, NO PERSONAL ATTACKS!
5. The investment implications of something going on in politics or religion is OK.
6. Of course, there’s never a reason to slur someone based on race, religion, gender, sexual orientation, or country of national origin.
7. Please, no snark!
Print This Post
#1 !!!
1st. Hoping for more investment discussions and less politics this week
New World Investor for 7.24.25 is posted. Next week starts the flood of earnings reports.
MM, you said “I am raising the AKBA buy limit to $4 because I think GSK and/or Amgen will make a bid for the company”. Do you have a range where a bid might be?
MM I have same question – holding out for a possible BO is not a historically good strategy, so does AKBA have near term upside on it own and is it worth holding if there is no BO?
Hey MM please be more responsive to questions from posters, much appreciated
MM – Im personally holding sizeable stake in AKBA and need your insight as to hold, or sell and a timeframe. Thank you
Again, impossible to answer. Follow ST closely. Nobody knows until we first see Q2 numbers to judge speed of uptake by small dialysis orgs. The only timeframe that is guaranteed is when a lowly CD matures. Even a T bond or corporate bond may be called in, so no firm timelines on those either. My parents lived into their early 90’s. I think I’ll do better, but I might be killed next month from a stupid kid racing his car, or a traffic crash in the rain with slippery roads. Estimating odds is all we can do, nothing more. NEVER any guarantees. If you want guarantees, put the bulk of your assets into CD’s.
JGMD I enjoy your engagement on this posting board and appreciate your wisdom on everything from stocks to length of life but could you please not answer posts Ive directed to MM? No need to state the obvious, we all know its impossible to always correctly predict the movement of any stock but we can certainly apply probabilties based on facts, likelihoods and historical results and some people are more qualified than others to do so. That is why I paid for this subscription and ask MM his qualified opinion on a stock he has strongly recommended. Thank you JGMD
A bit harsh don’t you think, Steve? JGMD only added his thoughts which I always look forward to. It won’t prevent MM from weighing in and might provide a basis for his deeper answer. Keep in mind, MM uses this report as a platform for investment ideas, not individual investment management as each person’s strategy will obviously be different. Expecting MM to respond immediately to our questions seems a bit unreasonable. Still, I enjoy and appreciate your comments.
Simple request Larry, were big boys here, as I said I appreciate JGMDs comments but I already know what he thinks, I want to hear from MM. you say Im expecting MM to respond immediately, actually Im asking him to respond period, as Ive ssked his input multiple times in recent weekly letters, as have others, and he fails to reply. This is a paid subscription Larry, that means we can expect a reply – Im not here to give MM ideas, Im the client, Im here to benefit from MMs ecperience and knowledge
Impossible to answer until we see Q2 ER in early August. If bullish ST gurus like hsainu and Holy_boy (the latter a nephrologist with experience using V) are correct, AKBA will go to $30 by early 2026. A buyout below $30 will be laughed at by management now. If NDD is approved in 2027, then $60-100 in 2028-9 without BO.
Q2 numbers are the first acid test for the credibility of hsainu.
JGMD if my comments were harsh, unintended forgive me if I offended
I too would like MM to respond to subscriber questions. I am happy to wait a few days, but most of the time he doesn’t respond at all. Maybe and likely he doesn’t know, as I said nobody really knows timelines. The best recent example is UUUU. I stopped following it, but all of a sudden it almost doubled after announcing a rare earth discovery. What do we do? Hold money in UUUU or other situations for years waiting for something to happen? It’s OK if you bought cheap, since it’s like holding a CD that pays almost zilch. But if you buy too high, then you eat your heart out waiting.
Yes – a slow grind up to $6-$7
My guess is $10 to $20
MM: “Tariffs are not inflationary. Tariffs are a tax, and no tax is ever inflationary. All taxes are deflationary because they reduce spending power.”
If it raises the price of the goods you want to buy it is inflationary. The fact that it makes you too poor to afford those goods does not make it deflationary. The prices are higher; the contents of your wallet do not grow to meet them.
Yes, tariffs raise the prices of tariffed goods you want to buy. Those people who can afford the higher prices have less money to spend on non tariffed goods. According to Milton Friedman, overall inflation is determined by the money supply, assuming productivity is the same. If the money supply is constant, then the overall inflation is directly correlated with the money supply. So there is inflation in the tariffed goods, and deflation in the non tariffed goods, for an approximate neutral effect on overall inflation.
Tariffs are a tax, actually sort of. Ignore tariffs for a moment. Actual taxes remove money from private consumers and producers, but the govt gets more money and will spend it. Govt suppliers are private companies who can get away with charging higher prices because the govt has more money to spend. So taxes really aren’t deflationary. Also, govt spending is not as prudent as private spending, because govt has more money to spend than private entities. Govt just prints more money when it is politically expedient to satisfy special interests, but the private sector spends more carefully, and does so only if it is good for their bottom line. So productivity rises more with private than govt spending. Increased productivity with the same money supply lowers inflation.
Prices of other things fall due to the reduced total demand.
Excellent RR , MM. Thanks.
Another tip – UPXI – its a SOL treasury company, the share price isabout 60% of the vakue of its SOL holdibgs, get in before SOL
etfs are approved and it explodes north
Hey Steve nice call on open and upxi
Hang on to both
Ron, I hope you bought OPEN when I signaled, over $4.00 today
What is UPXI?
See my earlier post
I sold Sprott SII in my tax free account. Hit a TRIPLE. Thanks MM. Now what is to do with the 16 K?
Wanna kniw the date AI predicts you will die? Visit Deathclock.com
Until I visit Deathclock, I’ll consider it amusement. I hate AI as a social phenomenon. AI is better than any human for reading the internet, but is no substitute for human judgment. Suppose you seek a 70 year old MD to consult on a serious problem. You ask him what his 50 year education and experience have taught him about handling that problem. He then buries his head online or asks any AI service the question. You say, doc I can read online and ask AI as well as you can. I come to you to advise me on what I cannot read on the internet. He refuses to acknowledge your concern. I, JGMD inform you that I have 50 years of experience and that many things worth knowing are not published on the internet and are basically trade secrets. (To get published, you have to push an idea that the establishment editors are ready to accept. Original thinkers are largely shut out of being published.) That’s how good docs earn their living by building trust and respect. You then walk out of the AI doc’s office.
A similar thing applies to great financial advisers. They gain their edge from their experience and chatting with similar colleagues of high caliber. Whatever is published about a stock isn’t worth knowing if you want an advantage. You have to have perspective and ANTICIPATE good results before they happen. Once the news breaks, it’s over. You have no advantage, unless you think that a plunge in stock price after what seems like bad news is actually a false over-reaction. That’s what Rick Rule said when investing in mining stocks. Rick had his family’s mining industry experience to be able to evaluate the geology of a target area and predict drill results. No, he didn’t have inside knowledge of the drill core lab results. People used to pay Buffett several millions for a private lunch with him, hoping to learn some trade secrets. They learned some things, but I doubt they went on to become Buffett clones. If Buffett found the guest too inquisitive, he probably changed the subject and turned the event into mere entertainment.
Friendly, sincere advice. Don’t use a phone to type thoughtful posts. You are apt to make typo errors unless you have 2 mm diameter fingers. I make lots of mistakes even on a large keyboard and spend time correcting my spelling, grammar, sentence structure. That way nobody can denigrate what I say and call me illiterate. If they cannot deal with my logic, they can easily cite any spelling errors to falsely and superficially accuse me. I won’t give them an easy opportunity. My chemistry teacher in HS said that English is THE most important subject. I asked him WHY does a chemical reaction proceed a certain way. He replied that what I wanted to know was HOW can he EXPLAIN the mechanism of the reaction. But it was invalid to ask WHY, because that is a philosophical question he couldn’t answer. I wish I had had the sense to visit him decades later to thank him for his wisdom.
Excellent post, JGMD. Your first paragraph brings to mind Dr. Jerry Silver, who was ostracized for saying spinal cord injuries could be healed. Your second paragraph brings to mind NervGen, where I have a healthy paper gain due to my early due diligence and Capricor where my new startegy involves buying OTM Jan 2027 Calls (AKBA 1.5 Calls also been bery good to me). Your third paragraph is a genuine pearl of wisdom from your Chemistry teacher.
ps loved the 2 mm fingertip idea.
Years ago when I bought a phone, it came with a narrow pencil-like tool to click on items. I never used it, but made do with my wider fingers. Remember the cigarette holders in old movies? There was an episode on Jackie Gleason’s Honeymooners. The glamorous wife of Gleason’s average looking boss said she couldn’t smoke a cigarette unless it was in a holder.
No
That site is insecure and dysfunctional. Another example of AI problems. The real site is death-clock.org. See my post below.
Appreciate the thoughts on RKLB Mike. I was also of that opinion, it’s gotten very ‘frothy’ and I’ve much sold a few here and there during it’s moment of rapid appreciation.
Anyway my average was about $4.50 so cashed out the rest this morning at $51.17 – a very nice win. It’s been nice to back a local tech company and make money off them.
Happy to come back in later at more reasonable prices.
Cheers from NZ
Thanks for your comments Steve G. I sold 80% of my RKLB holdings yesterday. My cost basis was just over $4. I had a lot of shares and this is and was my largest investment ever. As in major life changing $$$ increase. Can’t wait to see the tax bill but at least it is all long term gains. I am having anxiety if I sold too soon etc. the run up has been spectacular. I will keep watching it.
I have to thank MM for suggesting RKLB. Definitely has MORE THAN made up for all of the swing and bad misses from DNDN NVTA and especially Thomas Norchi.
I have some AKBA but would never invest a lot of money in this company. Or any other biotech company. Far too many losers vs. winners. So just a small amount. Way too risky. My wife is a sales manager in big pharma and was with REGN in the beginning of the start of their run.
Stick with Tech !
So feel free to share your current pics as I have
I didn’t have that many RKLB but it’s a good chunk of a new car when I’m ready ! I had planned to buy a lot more and hold them indefinitely but they jumped from 4 to 18 and I held off.
I split my money approx 3 ways. Core 50-60% (basically large tech Apple & Nvidia & Berkshire – never sell), Longterm 20-30% (smaller large tech Amazon, Google etc) & speculation 5-10% (bio & tiny tech). I
Spec is then split across several companies on the basis that if 1 or 2 hits then it outweighs any losses by a considerable margin.
I reinvest the spec hit into Core and Longterm and put 10% aside back into Spec, so this way keeps the quality increasing and the risk low.
I have a couple thousand AKBA, well under current price so will be happy to leave it ride and maybe pay off the other half of that new car.
Congrats on your RKLB, it’s great to get a really big win & not bad for a little o NZ company !
(My partner bought Xero @$1NZ – she still has them)
Steve
I agree that most bios are too risky. The main reason I have lots of AKBA shares is the special TDAPA advantage. TDAPA gives 6x the normal revenue for Vafseo for 2 years. Without TDAPA I wouldn’t have invested. V has been selling only moderately in the rest of the world for several years. Right now I am thinking about CPIX which has ifetroban which has similarly good phase 2 results to CAPR in preventing heart deterioration in DMD. I will post more later and ask gurus on ST like Asher77. Asher77 is a great thinker who understands cell biology more than I.
I just worry that they’re going to tank after earnings like it usually does.
If you are worried about AKBA earnings, many other investors are also worried. This is a contrarian signal that if earnings are decent, then the stock will continue its rise. Q1 earnings were better than most analysts thought, so the stock doubled since then. Even MM doubled his buy price from $2 to $4. My guess is $5-6 after Q2 ER, 2 weeks to go. Q3 and Q4 are when large dialysis orgs start launching. By end of 2025 or early 2026, I estimate $10.
You have a good diversified investing game plan. Stick with it and be disciplined.
We are very blessed and the bulk of our assets are professionally managed. So conservative. That allows me to swing for the fences with the money I held back.
The last twenty months have been extraordinary. I don’t like selling positions as I want to buy stocks to hold forever. Much like the stocks you mention.
I started buying NVDA starting in 2019. I bought PLTR right after the IPO. I have held SHOP since the IPO and my cost basis after splits is around $2.00. I bought GEV right after the split into two companies. NFLX and META have held for years. ARM I bought right after the IPO. I bought APPL in 2004. Buy and hold. I bought COST for $29 and bummed I sold this one. There are so many stocks I missed too such as ORCL.
I have around twenty four major positions. RKLB was an exception and I built a very large position over several months starting last year. I waited until it was in the low fours. The result a year later truly is life changing.
This has been an Extraordinary year . Technology is where the greatest gains are found. Do research. Read. I do research every night going through news releases.
I wish MM would stick more to tech. Biotech is WAY too risky. No thank you. Learned my lesson. Huge losses. Especially NVTA. And again screw Norchi. Total inept management.
MM absolutely redeemed himself with RKLB. So thankful he found this one. I am puzzled there are not more comments here on this absolute Grand Slam home run. There should be subscribers raving about this recommendation. .
Also Set up accounts with Equiniti and Computertech and buy dividend stocks every month like clockwork. This becomes your savings account with automatic deductions monthly from your bank account. You never see or miss the money. You set the amount to deduct monthly with no minimums. Automatic transfer ACH. You collect great dividends that are automatically reinvested. I buy PG and T here for example every month. T has been awesome this year.
Sounds like we have similar interests and I’m a software dev so tech makes sense to me, but I like to manage all my own. Yup, reading and researching and waiting for the elephant is the key.
I bought a lot of Apple at split $3 based on some news at the time from MM in his CSTL I used to subscribe to in the old day. I followed it up seeing iPods flying off the shelves so bought a chunk. So between Apple, Berkshire & Nvidia I have a very solid foundation, some AVGO, MRVL, TSM etc which also allows me to have a bit of fun money to try to increase the % gains.
I’ll basically buy and hold as long as it makes sense. I’ve kept Berkshire for close to 3 decades and bought Nvidia in 2020, 10 years after it was recommended 🙁
Also got bit with a couple of the bio’s but no-one forces me to buy them and it’s only been a couple of thousand here and there.
Mike has always done very well with his tech recommendations, I’d also would like him to focus there but it’s his business he can do what he likes and he obviously has lots of interests….
Your dividend idea is good I’ll look at that.
If want dividend buy NLY a mortgage reit, its delivered a safe 2-14% annually for me for 10 years
I’ve never been interested in dividends, more of a “show me the growth” kind of guy, but I’m getting to the stage of life where it’s probably time to start thinking about them. At the moment I go with drips for new shares but starting to think some additional cash income would be quite useful in a few years.
I read a book once about selling options on stocks to make “premium” income, Cash Machine, I think it was called but was never really sure about it as a process.
Gilead also seems to have a nice dividend.
Looks like time for some research into it…..
Have a great day everyone…..
Im in the same place as you, need to create an income stream for retirement, Charles Paine of FOF Financial also touts options for income stream in his new book – but need to know what youre doing or can get hurt. NLY has beed consistent and dependable
In case anyone missed the news on Friday afternoon, Sarepta Therapeutics, reported another patient who died while on their drug Elevidys This is the 3rd case due to acute liver failure. More pressure from the parents and doctors, for the FDA to approve Deramiocel.
Elevidys has had 3 deaths out of 800 patients. Very tragic but still comparable to the death rate from established chemo drugs for cancer. The FDA is threatening complete withdrawal of E but SRPT is pushing back. The DMD community will push back also. If E is withdrawn, then the fight will be between CPIX and CAPR. Stay tuned.
As viber7 on Stocktwits, I just posted about CPIX and CAPR. In mid March 2025, CPIX reported good phase 2 results for Ifetroban in DMD cardiomyopathy. After 12 months, benefit for LVEF was comparable to Deramiocel. CPIX treated numbers in the teens vs CAPR only 7. CPIX also reported lower blood markers of cardio damage, BNP, troponin, not assessed by CAPR. What does CAPR have that CPIX doesn’t? HOPE 2 OLE, better LVEF benefit than for 12 months, and of course HOPE 3 which is almost ready for release. CPIX and CAPR will both need phase 3, and I guess that CPIX is 1-2 years behind CAPR for FDA approval. Advantages for CPIX–only 1/7 the market cap of CAPR. My big worry for CAPR–CPIX’s oral pill will be MUCH cheaper than the elaborate deramiocel of CAPR, maybe $100k vs $1 million annually. Insurance companies may refuse to pay for CAPR and approve CPIX. Maybe in the window of CAPR launch of D and approval of CPIX, CAPR can grab as many of the 15K patients as possible. After approval of CPIX, CAPR may have market clout and get more patients, but I have to reduce my ultra bullish long term CAPR target of $1200 to $100 or so. Still a great potential from $7 now.
The FDA is probably aware of both CPIX and CAPR. Does the FDA ever take economic factors into their approval decisions, or are they solely based on the scientific evidence? Of course we are ignoring political corruption from Big Pharma.
Chris? John Fleming? Others?
Well, as you know by now the FDA pulled their drug. They will have to start again which will take years. CAPR has a webinar set up for next Tuesday at 1pm EST.
FDA pulled whose drug?
srpt’s
UPXI and OPEN both up double digits pre market, best specs I own
Thanks for the tip. Bought at $1.94 and sold at $4!!
good, glad you bought in, big day!
Good news for CAPR investors. Laura Loomer gas Vinay Prasad in her sights.
https://loomered.com/2025/07/20/meet-vinay-prasad-the-progressive-leftist-saboteur-undermining-president-trumps-fda/
You were correct in your assessment of Prasad. Another dictator with too much power. The FDA has committees of MD’s, statisticians doing their work. We don’t need a dictator over-ruling colleagues and changing procedures as Prasad did with CAPR. Under Verdun, HOPE 2 and its OLE were considered sufficient for approval and the mid cycle review was good, but Prasad changed the FDA requirements, misleading CAPR. Personally, I agree with the benefit of phase 3 HOPE 3 for confirmation of efficacy and safety, but it could have been told to CAPR much earlier. At this point, HOPE 3 is on the verge of release, and approval could come after only a short delay. The problem is that Prasad could behave like a dictator and demand a new P3 trial, saying that HOPE 3 doesn’t have any info that HE now wants. It would be nice to have 10 year trials to see if deramiocel actually prolongs life, but in a fatal disease like DMD, it would be unethical to do that trial. But dictators don’t listen to reason and have power to destroy anyone who interferes with their ego. Prasad’s videos showing his compassion for handicapped people could have just been promotional stunts, just like those of other dictators. Putin, CCP, Iran, etc. Add Prasad to that list.
Yet it’s down almost 10% today:(
More fallout from SRPT affecting DMD stocks except CPIX. Asher77 on ST is a brilliant researcher who understands cellular and molecular biology more than I. Asher is bullish on deramiocel approval. Yesterday, he posted a thoughtful comment that CPIX’s drug is a single molecule directed at a single receptor (thromboxane). I added that CAPR’s exosomes have many mediators that are a much better way to fight inflammation causing cardio disease in DMD. CPIX’s drug Ifetroban lowers thromboxane effect, similar to aspirin which reduces thromboxane levels. Basically, aspirin impairs blood clotting, but it has many side effects. Even low dose aspirin which has been used for many years to prevent conventional heart disease is now being questioned for primary prevention considering its risk for GI bleeding. CPIX claims that after 12 months of use, their drug is safe. I DON’T BELIEVE IT. Does anyone think that a fancy aspirin-like drug is going to be proven to have safety and efficacy comparable to CAPR’s deramiocel? Deramiocel has been used in clinical studies for many years.
MM, could you please respond to the comment below regarding INO from 2 RR’s ago? Thanks!!
MM, please see comment from subscriber Brent on last report regarding INO. You were not expecting a raise until February of 2026 and he’s saying there are more coming. What are your thoughts?
It was a necessary evil. INO’s cash position reached a low enough point in 2024 that they are now in a position of having to raise capital roughly equivalent to their cash burn rate going forward until INO-3107 sales are sufficient for INO to be cash flow breakeven. In 2024 they did a capital raise in Q2 and again in Q4 and it was obvious they were going to need to raise capital again in 2025. After they announced their Q4 raise in early December I wrote in part in the 12/12/24 report comments:
“Everyone can make their own assumptions as to how much of a cash cushion INO would want in 2026-Q1 when they get FDA approval and the timing and number of capital raises(s) to get there.My guess is there will be two. I’m guessing they’ll do another one in Q2 about the time their cash/investment balance drops to $50M. I think they will do a second in Q4 to create a cash cushion going into FDA approval. They did two raises in 2024, two quarters apart, so that also continues that pattern. I think they’ll want a minimum of a $50M cash balance in 2026-Q1. Given that, they will need to raise an additional $60M in 2025. That’s a whole lot of additional near-term dilution!”
This week’s capital raise is roughly equal to one quarter’s cash burn extending their cash to roughly early 2026-Q2 but at that point their cash position would be $0, which of course they won’t allow to happen. I don’t think they want their cash position much lower than $50 million. The lower the cash levels the worse the terms they’ll get when they need to do a raise.
The INO-3107 BLA submission continues to push out and is now a rolling submission that is likely to be final in Q4, maybe close to year-end, putting approval around mid-2026. So even with this week’s capital raise INO won’t have the cash to reach the BLA approval date. Given that, INO is going to need one or two additional capital raises after this one. I continue to think they’ll be another one in late Q4 or early Q1 of 2026 and then they may need to do a final one prior to BLA approval to get their cash position high enough to sufficiently fund a product launch.
Raising capital when your stock price is a buck and change is brutal financially.
Chris or JGMD when is the next NGENF catalyst and your target price? Are you both still believers in it?
Again, don’t ask what the next catalyst is. When there are rumors of progress about more trials, the price will jump and that will not be the best time to buy. Everyone knows that more trials are planned which will require more money. Don’t wait for an organization to step up with more funds. Don’t wait for an announcement that trials for some other neurological disease will start. The best time to buy is when there is no news. You must NOT wait for catalysts to be announced. I’m holding my shares bought some time ago at $1.75 and am looking to buy more. The stock recently went above $3 but there was no news to explain it. It has now dropped way below that. I am hoping I can get some more in the low $2’s. If there is a world wide crisis, most stocks will plunge, creating better buying opportunities. Chris likes to buy long dated call options. There may be more leverage in that, but there is a higher risk that even 2027 options lose more than the stock due to loss of the time value. Never buy short term call options which may be cheap but rapidly lose time value. These low priced stocks are kinda like perpetual call options which never expire. So my strategy is to buy cheap, waiting as long as possible for cheaper prices. Hold and hold. This is a long term stock as more trials prove the benefits of their peptide 291. I have no idea of the target price. With more successful trials, the price will rise and then dilution will drop the price, but less and less dilution will be needed at higher prices. The chart will look like 4 steps up, 3 steps down, etc. PATIENCE.
I see that you got lucky recently, so you are looking for the next big thing. Some full time professional traders who are aware of many potential winners continue to take short term profits and move on to the next big thing. I agree with MM’s buy and hold strategy for very promising situations, but only if you can buy cheaply when there are lulls in news, not asking what and when the next catalyst is. Other investors who have done extensive research know all the potential catalysts, and they will outperform those who wonder what the next catalyst is.
JGMD please dont tell me how to invest, you have yir way and I have mine so lets respect each others strategy – no need to tell me mine is wrong – I just made $75k by with a 2 day trade, today I made $8.5 k on a one day trade, more than Ive made on any biotech holding for several years so yes you can make good money buying on catalysts, thats what moves a stock price. If you dont know what I mean by catalysts, its quarterly earnings reporting, uplisting, merger announcement, PDUFAs, etc. I have no desire to park dead money in any biotech unless there is a coming catalyst.
If you buy from touts on the radio, you are asking for trouble if you don’t do your own research. Do you really think you can accumulate wealth in the long run by being a day trader? Some day traders get consistently lucky, but many or most get screwed eventually. But if you do research and understand a company’s business, you will know the fundamentals of how it will grow. All those catalysts you list are merely superficial events in a company’s development. Knowing them is no substitute for deep analysis of a business. I know all about them. For example, uplisting is a scheme to artificially increase a company’s prestige. The business fundamentals are still the same, but the more prestigious exchange comes with added expenses. Another myth used to create buying is when a company buys back its own stock. Is that the best use of cash for a company? NO, because good management knows how to deploy cash better than stockholders. Mergers can be good or bad. How will you know if you rely on catalysts rather than learning more about the fundamentals of companies involved? The most successful investors know the catalysts before we do. The problem is that young day traders with faster reflexes using algorithms you don’t have will outfox you in the game of musical chair day trading. MM has frequently said that most people cannot outsmart PhD mathematicians doing these algorithms that day traders use. Many day trading services are aggressively promoted, subscriptions are high priced. I suspect that the promoters are making more money from subscription fees than from their own holdings. Subscription fees are guaranteed income without risks of losses in the stocks they push. Alternatively, they are front running their holdings, making more money as they suck in subscribers to buy their holdings. Many big brokerages aggressively promote dogs their regular clients want to get out of at higher prices. Beware of evil tricks in the financial dungeons and from firecracker scumbag hucksters.
Sure, don’t buy biotechs with a day trading catalyst philosophy.
One reason I write lengthy posts is to ponder to myself that I’m on the right track.
JGMD I personally appreciate your lengthy, well thought out posts. At my age and being late to the investment game, I look forward to all views, whether I agree with them or not. All help me see the many sides of investing and things to focus on.
Yea your right, I should hand back the $72k because it wasnt earned with the right strategy. For your info, I did the research on OPEN stock, theyve made the cuts in staff and downsizing needed, theyre business model will benefit greatly from AI and reduced interest rates, they have a new partnership with ZILLOE for reffersls, and all their competition in the e-realtor business have closed shop (Redfin and Zillow) so they have a monopoly with a big moat to entry. The business model saves home sellers commisdion as ZOOEN buys yiur home with cash (no listing or showing) and if they re-sell above the fair market price they paid you they spkit the difference with you. Add to that it is widely speculated they will announce their first profitable wuarter in years. I bought to hold for what looks to me to be the turnsround prodpect of the decafe but sold when the memes drove tge stock from $2 to $4, pocketed $72k, and rebought yesterday at $2.25 – I believe its a $40 stock in the next couple years. Its a real business with an attractive runway, not a hope and pray biotech. So JGMD, still think Im just a day trader reacting to someone on the radio? Again I appreciate how you over analyze a stock but you should have anlittle more respect for other strategies.
Pardon my horrible spelling mistakes, Im using a phone and Ive got a very progressed cataract impeding my sight
Sorry to hear. It’s time for you to get cataract surgery. Recovery is quick. The surgery is low risk. Spend the extra $4000 for better intraocular lenses in both eyes. Medicare will pay for the standard inferior lenses. Insurances are a scam. My girlfriend’s gyn in Hillsborough just stopped accepting her straight MCR pt A and B. MCR makes docs do lots of documentation and other bureaucratic garbage, payments are delayed and delayed, so many docs refuse to bother with it. It’s nice to have money so you can say FCK you to the system.
I pay only $100 cash outside of insurance annually for my testosterone instead of going through the frustrating prior authorization process every 3 months. One of my patients has a sensitivity reaction every time he injects his testosterone cypionate. I switched him to testosterone enanthate, but the idiotic AI from the prior auth process rejected his claim and said to take the cypionate. Try explaining all that to an AI entity and you get nowhere. I had to call the pharmacy and tell them he will pay cash.
Be careful of AI. It is SHIT. When Zacks or Simply Wall Street has an article on a company they praise as a good investment, they usually conclude that some cheap AI stocks are better bets. That tells me that AI is under heavy promotion. WATCH OUT. Zacks et al are written by AI, and are generally useless generic infomercials.
Congrats on your successful trading strategy on OPEN. What is most important is that you developed a good understanding of the business rather than looked for superficial catalysts. So you actually followed my advice! It looks like you bought 36,000 shares at $2 and sold them all at $4. Smart move. I wonder how many shares you bought back at $2.25. If you have over $72k in capital losses over the years, you’ll keep all your $72k in profits. But if you have no capital losses, you’ll keep only about 60% or $43k. So I hope you re-invested a maximum of $43k or $72k, depending on your situation. Many gamblers would have gone all in again with $144k. If the meme doesn’t repeat, they could lose all or most of that money. One of my biggest mistakes was holding my APTO shares when I had 6X return on my money over a few years from its early stage trials. When its meme didn’t repeat, it fell to near zero and recently went BK, so I lost nearly 100%. The blow wasn’t too bad, since I had invested only $9k. But I could have gotten $54k, or $45k in profit, and long term capital gains.
If you think the OPEN business has long term big potential like $40, you might have held all 36,000 shares for $1,440,000 and kept 85% of that due to your long term capital gain. Rich Rule’s strategy is to sell half on quick gains and hold the rest. Holding the rest is a “no concern” strategy. However, due to short term capital gains, the better strategy is to sell about 2/3 and keep the rest.
Which service gave you the OPEN idea?
I’m curious as well where the investment for OPEN came from. I’ve had a few big winners from MM over the years and have now included a few members from this board for a few additional plays. I’ve learned something from several here about what to look at, what to listen for, what to be concerned with etc. Even though I’ve been tempted to learn how to trade, my one or two failed attempts have kept me from trying again. Most of what I need to improve on is knowing when to sell. I’ve allowed more profits to escape me than I care to share simply by being greedy or just not recognizing the selling signs until after everyone else has
Larry, you are so right about learning to sell at the right time. It’s easy to buy when you are enthusiastic, but selling is like getting a pleasant divorce from your loved one. That is never easy! We could set targets for selling, but when the company does better than we thought, we get greedy and rationalize that we should hold. To make this easier, we can follow sentiment. When everyone is giddy with paper riches and grandiose plans to buy a yacht, that’s the time to sell. When we are fearful, that’s the time to buy.
Ill share my research on here, as I did with OPEN, and previously with UPXI (a SOL treasury company whose MC is only 60% the vakue of their SOL holdings) and IREN & CIFR, 2 btc miners transitioning to use their current data centers (and building more) to sell much needed power to tech firms in desperate need of it to power AI. One new one NNVC developing vaxs, in P2 with a measles vax which should be first one to approval.
Steve, you seem to have a few active plays, do you mind sharing where you heard about them? Thanks
JGMD – there you go again, telling me I didnt do it right, you just cant resist. I bought OPEN at $1.10 and sold it all at $4.50 – you dont pass up 400% profit in 48 hours, esoecially fully knowing it would collapse back to reasonable value and I could buy it again lower, which I did
Steve–read my post carefully, and don’t be trigger happy to criticize if there is a chance you misread me. I said upfront that you made a smart move. Case closed. I later gave other strategies that weren’t meant to criticize what you actually did.
JGMD, had you just stopped with “congrats” that wouldve been appropriate, the rest of the lengthy “you couldve or shouldve” just negated the congrats. Im well aware of all the things you said I couldve, or the tax implications, it just comes off as lecturing and self righteousness. I respect your knowledge JGMD but you dont have to prove it all the time
I enjoy posts from both of you and don’t see either as critical, just different views and ways to invest. Steve, I really enjoy that you share your trades when you provide some additional info. I also enjoy JGMD’s follow-ups as it forces me to look at both sides of the coin.
I enjoy playing the ponies a bit and follow a few handicappers. One thing that irritates me the most is when they post a message after the fact showing how much they made on a race. The first thing that comes to mind is why didn’t you tell us about that bet before the race?
Same with some of the companies I see here. NGENF and CAPR were 2 introduced with additional info that I was able to get involved with and have been pleased so far. AKBA is another being a MM recommendation that I also am involved with, but with the additional info from you guys and others on this board helped me better understand what I own.
Keep the sharing coming guys and thanks much for taking the time and willingness to share.
SRPT’s losses today are diminishing. Sentiment may be changing, as CAPR is having a nice rebound today so far. Most of the uncertainty is known and already priced in. There may be more shorting, but the window for that is closing.
I hope nobody was holding this. Yikes!!
REPL
Replimune Group Stock Drops More Than 75% on News of FDA Complete Response Letter –
CAPR dropped much less after its CRL. I bought more yesterday at $7.20. Maybe a few days too early, but probably a good move on my part. You’d have to analyze REPL’s drug potential to see whether 75% loss is an overreaction. Most CRL’s are corrected by a company if they have resources, so this could be a good thing for new investors in REPL. They will have to do a phase 3 double blind placebo controlled study. Paul R on ymb had an AKBA position at a few dollars, but he loaded up at 25 cents in March 2022 when AKBA got a CRL for Vafseo. He got his average cost down to just over $1.
I would be interested in a CRL newsletter. I would guess it would have a superb average track record.
MM, you said “I am raising the AKBA buy limit to $4 because I think GSK and/or Amgen will make a bid for the company”. Do you have a range where a bid might be?
MM, I’m reposting this hoping you’ll address my and others interest in you thinking KSK and/or Amgen will make a bid for the company. What makes you think that and what range do you have in mind? Thanks
GSK because they introduced a similar but inferior drug to the same market, and it failed, so they have a demonstrated interest in the market.
Amgen, because they are the current leader, and AKBA will kill them if they don’t buy it.
Danger of AI. I couldn’t post the link. Look at winbuzzer.com, under AI. FDA researchers say AI “hallucinates” false studies. Researchers have to do lots of work verifying the claims of AI. Any business depending on AI is at risk. I don’t buy products from any company that doesn’t have human customer service. On the last board, I posted a scenario about going to a foolish doctor who depends on AI to give live advice to patients. Who here is ready to get into a self-driving car? Has Musk finally solved the problems? I doubt it.
I’d be willing to bet the responses would be divided by age
Sure, age is a factor for REMAINING life expectancy. But if you are now 70, your ultimate life expectancy is higher than another person with the same data who is now 40. I think the tables for life expectancy are for people born today. If medical advances prolong life, that is best for young people, offsetting the early deaths from teenage driving accidents, recreational drug overdoses. The longer you survive, that shows you have escaped the unlucky events of people who die younger. So you have longer ultimate life expectancy.
How did this guy
manage to outlive this guy?
https://dims.apnews.com/dims4/default/9312d88/2147483647/strip/true/crop/3000×2119+0+0/resize/599×423!/quality/90/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fassets.apnews.com%2F1c%2F20%2F5c6acbfc2290ca3ceadf8b170b0d%2F9320efa71a974288880462aedd52a4ee
Extreme bodybuilders like Hulk Hogan undergo extreme stress. Weight lifting at that level is a full time stressful job. They take artificial potent anabolic steroids, not healthy moderate doses of natural hormones. Their lifestyle is stressful with more drugs, alcohol and smoking, divorces, lawsuits, etc. I know my limits and do the best I can without getting stressed out. Same goes for trying to research every financial speculation. Research what interests you so you can enjoy the research. Avoid a lavish lifestyle so you don’t need fantastic returns to be OK.
Tattoos are chemical poisons and are unhealthy, but not as bad as everything Hogan did.
FDA’s much ballyhooed AI program has an hallucination problem
https://cybernews.com/news/fda-ai-tool-elsa-drugs-hallucinations/
Thanks, that’s the story. I just tried death-clock.org. It uses AI to predict life expectancy. Input options are limited. I put BMI under 25, no other input options. My actual BMI is 22. I consider BMI of 25 to be unhealthy. Worse, BMI is an invalid indicator of body fat %, the more relevant factor. First, a super-muscular man may have low body fat % but have a BMI over 30, considered obese. Ridiculous. Second, a small frame with little muscles in an elderly person with low body water content will have a low BMI and moderately elevated body fat %. Third, weight distribution is important. Many people have a normal BMI but their fat is concentrated in the middle. Their risk for diabetes, HBP, cancer is higher. All this significantly invalidates the use of BMI as an indicator of health risks. Of course, if BMI is horrendously elevated over 40, then their risks are very high, and they don’t need death clock to tell them. Well, deathclock’s answer for me is 89 years old, a gross underestimate from what I think. Of course, there are so many other factors such as accidents. How about extreme volatility in stock portfolios of people investing in speculations? Financial anxiety is a major risk factor for earlier death, esp from suicide.
Most docs don’t realize the truth of what I said about BMI. AI is “artificial” intelligence, and I call it STOOPID NONINTELLIGENCE. It all depends on the biases of the programmers of AI. This is not commonly realized. There is no substitute for due diligence by real people who are ethically honest about truth.