Dear New World Investor:
At the top of each Friday’s Boomberg on Substack I repeat an important note:
“Stocks peak about every 36 years, most recently in 1929, 1965, and 2000. This 36-year cycle can be traced all the way back to the earliest eras in recorded human history, back to Pythagoras and Plato and the Axial Age around 600BC. After each peak comes a period of decline (punctuated by bear market rallies) that typically lasts 16 years or so. Then, with the excesses of the prior bull period wrung out and investors most depressed, the next 20-year run to the next market top can begin. We’re in that Golden Age now – take advantage of it!
These chaotic early days of the transition from bear market to bull market are always difficult for investors bruised by the bear. Years when caution paid and even was vital to investment survival give way to years when boldness pays. The must-follow Jim Paulsen wrote: “Broken relationships are always emotionally difficult. This is equally true when an investor’s favored true blue financial or economic relationship stops working. Like in the real world, financial “relationships” – especially those which have been ‘money’ seemingly forever – break all the time.
“In recent years,
(1) The inverted yield curve – a golden recession forecasting tool since the late-1960s — no longer seems to be providing a reliable signal of a pending recession.
(2) After never being negative since it was first introduced in 1960, annual growth in the M2 money supply fell below zero for sixteen consecutive months beginning in late 2022.
(3) While never rising above $1 trillion before, the Federal Reserve’s balance sheet exploded to $9 trillion in early-2022 and still remains above $6.6 trillion.
(4) The U.S. has never experienced peace time Federal government deficit/GDP ratios as large as we have in recent years and total U.S. government debt to GDP recently surpassed 100% for the first time since WWII.
(5) U.S. household debt ratios have steadily declined during the last almost 20 years after persistently rising throughout the post-war era.
(6) The velocity of the U.S. money supply was historically fairly stable oscillating within a relatively narrow range. However, during the last quarter-century, monetary velocity has inexplicably collapsed.
(7) Real corporate profit per job stayed within a tight range between 1948 to the mid-1990s but has subsequently tripled during the last 30 years.
(8) Finally, the most heartbreaking splintered financial market relationship of all – a definable and steady valuation range between 1870 to the mid-1990s – has shockingly trended persistently higher during the last three decades!”
We feel your pain, Jim, and it’s not hard for only us outside investors. Insiders today are less bullish than at any time in at least 10 years. Perhaps that’s because they know their companies are woefully unprepared for the AI revolution that will sweep over them for the next five years, but I suspect it’s because they haven’t grasped the magnitude of the opportunity that AI creates during that same time period.
Click for larger graphic h/t Jesse Felder
My grandfather bought Coca-Cola after he graduated from law school in 1914, doubled his money, and sold it. Believe me, 50 years later when he repeatedly told me this story, he wasn’t bragging about the double. I suspect these insider sellers will have the same regrets.
This morning’s news that new claims for unemployment fell to a three-month low of 217,000 – far below the 250,000 level I watch for a sign of real labor market deterioration – gives the Fed plenty of cover to not cut the Fed funds rate next Wednesday. Wednesday morning’s release of the first estimate of June quarter real GDP will be “surprisingly” strong, also providing cover for no cut. The next day’s release of the Personal Consumption Expenditures Index should show no surprises.
Market Outlook
The S&P 500 added 1.0% since last Thursday to new all-time intraday and closing highs today. The Index is up 8.2% year-to-date. The Nasdaq Composite lagged a bit, gaining only 0.8%, but also set new all-time intraday and closing highs today. It is up 9.0% for the year. The SPDR S&P Biotech Exchange-Traded Fund (XBI) fell 0.7% and is down 2.9% year-to-date. The small-cap Russell 2000 was flat for the week and is up 1.0% in 2025.
The fractal dimension finally dropped through 55, confirming a new up trend. These typically last for two or three months, which suggests this one will be driven by “surprisingly” good earnings reports.
Click for larger graphic
Top 5
Changes this week: None
Near-Term – chronological order
AKBA Akebia Therapeutics – Vafseo launch
SCYX ScyNexis – Resolution of GSK situation
EQT EQT – natural gas price rebound
USL United States 12 Month Oil Fund, LP – crude should rise quickly
FCX Freeport McMoRan – copper shortage
Long-Term – alphabetical order
ABCL AbCelllera – Will become a huge pharma royalty company
UUUU Energy Focus – Domestic uranium supplier
EQT EQT – largest US natural gas company
IBIT iShares Bitcoin Trust – Bitcoin is headed for $150,000
META Meta – a (the?) leader in the metaverse
PLTR Palantir – a (the?) leader in AI applications software
SCYX ScyNexis –First new antifungal in 20 years
Economy
The Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow model will be updated tomorrow, Friday, July 25.
Coming Events
All times below are ET, and most presentations and slides are archived on the companies’ websites so you can listen to them.
Tuesday, July 29
PYPL – PayPal – 8:00am – Earnings conference call
GLW – Corning – 8:30apm – Earnings conference call
Wednesday, July 30
June quarter real GDP – 8:30am – First estimate
Business Employment Dynamics – 10:00am
Fed meeting – 2:00pm press release; 2:30pm press conference
META – Meta Platforms – 5:00pm – Earnings conference call
Thursday, July 31
CMPS – Compass Pathways – 8:00am – Earnings conference call
July payrolls – 8:30am
Personal consumption expenditures – 8:30am – The Fed’s favorite inflation indicator
AAPL – Apple – 5:00pm – Earnings conference call
ENVX – Enovix – 5:00pm – Earnings conference call
Friday, August 1
SNAP – Snap – 11:30am – Annual meeting
Big Tech: The Biotech & Digital Dominators MegaShift
There are at least four ways to make money in the stocks of these large, growing, dominant companies. You can:
* * Buy a stock and hold it
* * Buy a stock and write a call option against it
* * With a Level IV options account, write an out-of-the-money put option
* * With a Level IV options account, write an out-of-the-money put option and use part of the premium to buy an out-of-the-money call option
Apple (AAPL – $213.75) announces June quarter results next Thursday after the close. The consensus is expecting revenues up only 3.71% from last year to $88.96 billion with $1.42 earnings per share. September quarter guidance should be for $97.67 billion and $1.66
The company will introduce a foldable iPhone in 2026, according to Bloomberg. Years behind Samsung, but it doesn’t matter. Apple has a super-loyal customer base.
But will they bite on this? Apple introduced AppleCare One, a new way for customers to cover multiple Apple products with one plan. For “just” $19.99 per month(!), customers can protect up to three products in one plan, with the option to add more at any time for $5.99(!) per month for each device. I’ll be fascinated to see if they can sell that. AAPL is a Buy under $205.
Corning (GLW – $55.72) announces June quarter results next Tuesday before the open. The consensus is expecting revenues up 6.42% from last year to $3.84 billion with 57¢ earnings per share. September quarter guidance should be for $3.99 billion and 62¢.GLW is a Hold for a $60 target in 2025.
Meta Platforms (META – $714.80) announces June quarter results next Wednesday after the close. Zuckerberg deliberately reports results one day before Apple – he really doesn’t like Tim Cook. The consensus is expecting revenues up 14.65% from last year to $44.79 billion with $5.90 earnings per share. September quarter guidance should be for $46.22 billion and $6.00. META is a Buy under $705 for a long-term hold.
Micron (MU – $111.73) launched the industry’s highest-density, radiation-tolerant single-layer cell (SLC) NAND product for aerospace applications. With a die capacity of 256 gigabits, this product is the first in a portfolio that will include space-qualified NAND, NOR, and DRAM solutions. The chip is the first in its class to be offered by any major memory manufacturer. MU is a Buy under $120 for a $140 first target.
PayPal Holdings (PYPL – $77.82) is our first reporter, announcing June quarter results 30 minutes before Corning next Tuesday. The consensus is expecting revenues up 2.48% from last year to $8.08 billion with $1.30 earnings per share. September quarter guidance should be for $8.13 billion and $1.20. PYPL is a Buy under $75 for a double in three years.
SoftBank (SFTBY – $41.00) CEO Masayoshi Son and CEO Sam Altman of OpenAI see insatiable demand for AI that makes it imperative to keep building ever more computing capacity. Altman said that as the cost of AI is driven down, more people want to use it, and the demand for intelligence in the world seems to be huge. Son wants to deploy a billion AI agents within the SoftBank group this year and design an operating system for them, and SoftBank plans to invest as much as $30 billion in OpenAI. SFTBY is a Buy under $35 for a first target of $50 and then higher as the discount to hard book value disappears.
Small Tech
Enovix (ENVX – $14.43) announces June quarter results next Thursday after the close, with a conference call the same time as Apple. The consensus is expecting revenues up 71.03% from last year to $6.44 million with a pro forma loss of 15¢ per share. September quarter guidance should be for $7.46 million and a $16¢ loss. ENVX is a Buy up to $20 for a 4-year hold to $100+ as their BrakeFlow lithium-ion battery takes market share.
Primary Risk: A new competitor invents a better battery.
Biotech MegaShift
If you can afford it – and it would not be too big a position in your portfolio – putting $2,000 into each of these speculative biotechs might be a good way to start. Buying these out-of-favor, fallen, or forgotten companies that can get important products through the FDA at very low market capitalizations seems like a good strategy to me.
Risks
Development-stage biotechs are subject to investor sentiment swings from wildly optimistic to excessively pessimistic – mostly the latter recently. After the Primary Risk for each company, I’ve added the clinical stage of their lead product, the probable time of their first FDA approval, and the probable time of their next financing.
As always, you need to think about an appropriate position size. You could buy a full position upfront and then just hold on, or buy some upfront and leave room to add more on the inevitable financings, transient clinical trial setbacks, and the like.
The FDA has introduced Elsa, an artificial intelligence large-language model similar to ChatGPT. They will use Elsa to perform product review tasks such as describing side effects. Speeding up that process would be a good thing. The new agency FDA Commissioner, Dr. Marty Makary, co-wrote an article in the Journal of the American Medical Association (JAMA) with Dr. Vinay Prasad that said: “The FDA will be focused on delivering faster cures and meaningful treatments for patients, especially those with neglected and rare diseases, healthier food for children and common-sense approaches to rebuild the public trust.”
The newly-installed FDA officials proposed speeding drug approval by requiring only one major study in patients rather than two, which has been the practice up to now. They also wrote that AI has the promise to “radically increase efficiency” by examining as many as 500,000 pages submitted for approval decisions.
Compass Pathways (CMPS – $4.37) will be our first biotech reporting June quarter results next Thursday before the open. The consensus is expecting a loss of 36¢ per share. September quarter guidance should be for a 32¢ loss. As always, it will be comments on the Phase 3 trials that move the stock. CMPS is a Buy under $10 for a very long-term hold to $200.
Primary Risk: Their drugs fail in the clinic.
Clinical stage of lead product: Phase 3
Probable time of first FDA approval: 2028
Probable time of next financing: Late 2025
Inflation MegaShift
Gold ($3,373.20) rallied for its best gains in more than a month and silver surged to its highest level since September 21, 2011, nearly 14 years, boosted by a solidly lower U.S. dollar index and a decline in U.S. Treasury yields to start the trading week. But it was driven by talk of earlier than expected Fed rate cuts, which I think is dead wrong. I expect gold to go up as the dollar declines because the Fed is willing to fund the fiscal deficit that our elected leaders rely on to buy votes in their next election. To be blunt.
The fractal dimension finally hit full consolidation, although we know from experience that it can continue consolidating for a while. But we also know the energy is there to power the next trend, which usually is in the direction it was going when the consolidation started – in this case, up.
Click for larger graphic
Cryptocurrencies
Cryptocurrencies are a diversifying asset that offer a unique opportunity to make (or lose!) a lot of money quickly.
Bitcoin (BTC-USD on Yahoo – $118,854.10) continues to consolidate near record levels. This is a good thing.
Click for larger graphic
BTC-USD, ETH-USD, IBIT, and ETHA are Strong Buys.
Primary Risk: Bitcoin falls due to over-regulation or is surpassed by another cryptocurrency.
iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT- $67.66) remains the cheapest and easiest way to buy bitcoin. IBIT is a Buy for the 2028, 2032, and 2036 halvings.
Primary Risk:Bitcoin falls due to over-regulation or is surpassed by another cryptocurrency.
Ethereum (ETH-USD on Yahoo – $3,716.35) has surged 60% over the past month to hover near $3,800, its highest level since January. The second-largest cryptocurrency by market cap has yet to reclaim its 2021 high north of $4,600. It is the big beneficiary of Crypto Week. The number of stablecoins in circulation recently hit $250 billion. That’s more than physical Canadian dollars or British pounds in circulation.
Stablecoins are simply the tokenization of the US dollar. Every stock, bond, piece of real estate, barrel of oil, and work of art will be tokenized on a blockchain.
Most tokenized assets, from stocks to tokenized Treasuries to stablecoins, all run on ethereum. BlackRock, Robinhood, Visa, PayPal, Stripe, and JPMorgan are all building on top of ethereum, which is becoming the settlement layer for the new blockchain-based financial system. As more assets move onto its chain, ethereum earns more fees, lifting its price. ETH-USD is a Buy.
Primary Risk: Bitcoin extensions outperform Ethereum.
iShares Ethereum Trust (ETHA- $28.38) remains the cheapest and easiest way to buy ethereum. ETHA is a Buy for the coming explosion in token-funded start-ups.
Primary Risk: Ethereum falls due to over-regulation or is surpassed by another cryptocurrency.
Commodities
Oil – $66.07
China’s Strategic Petroleum Reserve buying has propped up the global oil market. China has a total onshore storage capacity of only 1.23 billion barrels, so we are about 90 million barrels or 15 weeks away from China hitting its maximum. By the end of the year, China’s crude stockpiling will end, and the tight crude environment the world is currently seeing will depend on other factors like falling US shale production, slow growth in Saudi exports, and better-than-expected economic growth.
Click for larger graphic h/t HFI Research
The July 2026 Crude Oil Futures (CLN26.NYM – $63.32) are a Buy under $70 for a $200+ target. Only buy futures for all cash; do not use margin.
The United States 12 Month Oil Fund, LP (USL – $36.63) is a Buy under $40 for a $100+ target.
Vermilion Energy (VET – $8.46) is a Buy under $11 for a target price of $24 or more.
Primary Risk: Oil prices fall.
EQT (EQT – $54.03) reported June quarter revenues up 167.7% (not a misprint) from last year to $2.55 billion, soundly beating the consensus for $1.75 billion. Pro forma earnings of 45¢ also soundly beat the 40¢ estimate.
On the conference call (AUDIO HERE and SLIDES HERE and TRANSCRIPT HERE), CEO Toby Rice guided September quarter sales volume to 590-640 billion cubic feet equivalent (Bcfe) and full year 2025 volume to 2,300-2,400 Bcfe. He said: “Production was at the high-end of guidance, benefiting from strong well productivity and compression project outperformance. Capital spending came in well below the low-end of guidance, driven by another record-setting quarter for completion efficiency and lower well costs. EQT has generated approximately $3.7 billion of cumulative net cash provided by operating activities and nearly $2 billion of cumulative free cash flow attributable to EQT over the past three quarters during which natural gas prices averaged $3.30 per million British thermal units (MMBtu), underscoring the differentiated earnings power of our low-cost, integrated platform.
“We also announced multiple in-basin supply and midstream growth projects, taking a material step forward in our strategy to create low-risk pathways for value-enhancing sustainable growth. We are seeing tremendous momentum for in-basin natural gas power and data center demand and EQT is uniquely positioned to capitalize on this set up due to our production scale, inventory duration, world-class integrated infrastructure, investment grade credit ratings and low emissions credentials.”
Click for larger graphic
Toby said the MVP Boost project, MVP Southgate, and long-term supply agreements for the Shippingport Industrial Park and Homer City redevelopment collectively represent a pipeline of nearly $1 billion of organic investment opportunity with premium, low-risk supply agreements that they estimate will generate an aggregate free cash flow yield of approximately 25% once fully online.
Natural gas stocks dipped this week, giving back most of last week’s gains, as weather forecasts for late July shifted a bit cooler, which should curb gas demand from electricity providers, and production continued running high, near 107 Bcf. The rise in natural gas rigs after 11 straight weekly declines reported by Baker Hughes pointed to producer plans to raise production as another bearish element. But we are not trading EQT based on weather reports – we are in it for a multi-year increase in natural gas prices and because it is the best-managed, best-positioned natty company.
Toby said that Congress needs to “step up and act” in cutting approval times for energy infrastructure projects to better compete with Russian gas exports and win the artificial intelligence race against China. He added: “The threat of not getting infrastructure built has only gotten larger – not only from bad actors getting rich by selling energy that could be replaced with American energy – it is also the threat of China winning the AI race.”
For special concern, Rice cited judicial review, which allows individuals and groups to legally challenge permit decisions for up to six years after an agency makes a decision, as well as the fast-tracking of renewable sources such as wind and solar, which he said has driven up energy costs. “When we spent the last 10 years ripping out coal, shutting down nuclear and making it more challenging to get natural gas infrastructure built, nobody should be questioning why prices are up and grid reliability is a major concern,” he said. He acknowledged that “prices are always going to be an issue and one of the bigger factors on our activity levels,” but pointed out that EQT has cut its unlevered cost structure from $3/MMBtu to $2/MMBtu by increasing rig efficiency and the acquisition of Equitrans Midstream. He predicted that U.S. natural gas prices will reach $4/MMBtu in 2026, but “just for perspective, $4 natural gas is the equivalent of $24 oil, so we’re still providing an amazingly affordable energy solution. This will catalyze a lot of demand and growth prospects.”
At the end of June, they had completely paid off their $3.5 billion revolving credit facility. CFO Jeremy Knop said: “We exited the quarter with $7.8 billion of net debt, down approximately $350 million compared to Q1 and marking nearly $6 billion of debt reduction over the past 3 quarters… we remain on track to achieve our year-end 2025 net debt target of $7.5 billion.”
He highlighted that the company plans to operate with a maximum of $5 billion of net debt over the medium to long term.
Click for larger graphic
EQT is a buy under $70 for a long-term hold for much higher prices.
Primary Risk:Natural gas prices fall.
Freeport McMoRan (FCX – $44.58) reported a double beat for June quarter results. Revenues rose 14.5% from last year to $7.58 billion, beating the $7.19 billion estimate. Pro forma earnings per share of 54¢ beat Wall Street’s expectation that earnings would fall 2.2% to 45¢. Surprise!
Consolidated production totaled 963 million pounds of copper, 317,000 ounces of gold, and 22 million pounds of molybdenum.
Click for larger graphic h/t Seeking Alpha
Consolidated sales totaled 1.0 billion pounds of copper, 522,000 ounces of gold, and 22 million pounds of molybdenum. September quarter guidance is for 1.0 billion pounds of copper, 350,000 ounces of gold, and 18 million pounds of molybdenum
Click for larger graphic h/t Seeking Alpha
Average realized prices were $4.54 per pound for copper, $3,291 per ounce for gold, and $21.10 per pound for molybdenum.
Click for larger graphic h/t Seeking Alpha
Average unit cash costs were $1.13 per pound of copper in the June quarter. On the conference call (AUDIO HERE and SLIDES HERE and TRANSCRIPT HERE), CEO Kathleen Quirk said costs are expected to average $1.55 per pound of copper for the full year. Consolidated sales for the full year are expected to approximate 3.95 billion pounds of copper, 1.3 million ounces of gold, and 82 million pounds of molybdenum.
Click for larger graphic
Copper prices are hitting all-time highs. Freeport is the dominant U.S. producer, responsible for over 70% of the country’s refined copper The start-up of the Indonesian smelter, which has an operating cost of only 27¢ a pound, means they will now be a fully integrated producer globally. Management expects copper sales in the second half of 2025 to be nearly 10% higher than in the first half, while gold sales, after revisions to Grasberg gold production, are expected to be similar to the first half. The company is targeting a run rate of 300 million pounds per year in its leach program using an internally developed leach additive at the Morenci mine by year-end, with an ultimate goal of 800 million pounds per year.
The company bought back 1.5 million shares during the quarter for a total of 2.9 million shares in the first half of 2025 at an average cost of $36.41 per share. They reiterated their commitment to targeting 50% of excess cash flow for shareholder returns via dividends and stock buybacks.
Click for larger graphic
FCX is a buy under $50 for a $70 target within two years.
Primary Risk: Copper prices fall.
* * * * *
Humanoid Robots
Click for larger graphic h/t Rational Optimist Society
* * * * *
RIP John Michael “Ozzy” Osbourne
Died at 76 from advanced Parkinson’s disease, 17 days after he said goodbye
to fans with his farewell Back to the Beginning concert in England.
He sat in a bat-winged throne to perform a total of nine Black Sabbath and solo songs.
* * * * *
Your reading four of the most viral lies about Israel Editor,
Michael Murphy CFA
Founding Editor
New World Investor
All Recommendations
Priced 7/24/25. Check out the complete Portfolio page HERE.
Buys
These are the stocks everyone needs to own because transformative events are happening over the next year or two, and I expect to hold them long-term.
Tech Dominators
Apple Computer (AAPL – $213.75) – Buy under $205
Gilead Sciences (GILD – $113.20) – Buy under $115, first target price $150
Meta (META – $714.80) – Buy under $705 for a long-term hold
Micron Technology (MU – $111.73) – Buy under $120, first target price $140
Onsemi (ON – $55.44) – Buy under $60, first target price $100
PayPal (PYPL – $77.82) – Buy under $75, target price $150
Snap (SNAP – $9.74) – Buy under $11, target price $17+
SoftBank (SFTBY – $41.00) – Buy under $35, target price $50+
Small Tech
Enovix (ENVX – $14.43) – Buy under $20; 4-year hold to $100+
First Trust NASDAQ Cybersecurity ETF (CIBR – $74.38) – Buy under $75; 3- to 5-year hold
Fastly (FSLY – $7.22) – Buy under $10 for a 3- to 5-year hold to $50+
PagerDuty (PD – $14.71) – Buy under $30; 2- to 5-year hold
QuickLogic (QUIK – $6.44) – Buy under $10, target price $40
ARK Venture Fund (ARKVX – $32.17) – Buy for SpaceX
$20-for-$1 Biotech
AbCellera Biologics (ABCL – $5.02) – Buy under $6, target $30+
Akebia Biotherapeutics (AKBA – $3.84) – Buy under $4, target $20
Compass Pathways (CMPS – $4.37) – Buy under $10, hold a long time for a 20x return
Editas Medicines (EDIT – $3.26) – Buy under $6 for a double in 12 months and a long-term hold to much higher prices
Inovio (INO – $1.51) – Buy under $5, hold a long time
Medicenna (MDNAF – $0.61) – Buy under $3, first target $20, then maybe $40
ScyNexis (SCYX – $0.74) – Buy under $2.50, target price $20, then $50
Inflation
A Short-Sale or REO House – ($415,400) – Hold
Bag of Junk Silver – ($39.28) – hold through silver bull market
Sprott Gold Miners ETF (SGDM – $45.83) – Buy under $50, target price $75
Sprott Junior Gold Miners ETF (SGDJ – $52.16) – Buy under $60, target price $100
Sprott Physical Gold and Silver Trust (CEF – $31.33) – Buy under $35, target price $60
Global X Silver Miners ETF (SIL – $50.44) – Buy under $60, target price $100
Coeur Mining (CDE – $9.40) – Buy under $10, target price $20
First Majestic Mining (AG – $8.67) – Buy under $11, next target price $23
Paramount Gold Nevada (PZG – $0.67) – Buy under $1, first target price $10
Cryptocurrencies
Bitcoin (BTC-USD – $118,854.10) – Buy
iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT – $67.66) – Buy
Ethereum (ETH-USD – $3,715.21)– Buy
iShares Ethereum Trust (ETHA- $28.38) – Buy
Commodities
Crude Oil Futures – July 2026 (CLN26.NYM – $63.32) – Buy under $70; $200+ target
United States 12 Month Oil Fund, LP (USL – $38.63) – Buy under $40; $100+ target
Vermilion Energy (VET – $8.46) – Buy under $11; $24+ target
Energy Fuels (UUUU – $9.96) – Buy under $8; $30 target
EQT (EQT – $54.03) – Buy under $70; hold for much higher prices ($100+)
Freeport McMoRan (FCX – $44.58) – Buy under $50; $70 target within two years
Holds
These are holds but not sells – yet. They could get moved back to one of the buy categories if their prices drop or outlook improves, or they could become sell recommendations in the future.
Corning (GLW – $55.72) – Hold for $60+
Nvidia (NVDA – $173.74) – Hold for $180 first target price
Palantir (PLTR – $154.88) – Hold for $180 first target price
TG Therapeutics (TGTX – $38.53) – Hold for buyout at $40+
Dakota Gold (DC – $4.08) – Hold for $6 target price
Sandstorm Gold (SAND – $9.57) – Hold for Royal Gold acquisition
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First!!
MM,
Was the market outlook graphic not updated? You mention the 55 level but it still looks close to 70 level to my eyes?
RIP Ozzy, and thank you for the music.
MM–please answer these questions about AI. Will you close your eyes, get into an AI driven car and trust your life to it? Will you trust an AI doctor who doesn’t look you in the eye and tell you about his own experience in treating your condition, as I described in my post on the last board? Will you buy a home just from pictures and AI comments without inspecting it by yourself with an engineer? Will you buy a car from the specs and AI reviews without getting into it, looking at the rear view mirrors, test driving it at 65 MPH?
If you are a violinist, would you pay $1 million or even $50,000 based on pictures from an auction house, testimonials from rich collectors over 200 years, certificates from questionable experts about the authenticity of a 300 year old instrument? I have been there, and rejected such instruments after 2 seconds of playing such violins and coughing at how awful they sounded. Most labels of “Antonio Stradivari” found in students violins for $200 and other $100K old instruments are FAKE.
AI is fake. The FDA has said so–see Chris’s post of an article at the end of the last board.
Repost from me.
I pay only $100 cash outside of insurance annually for my testosterone instead of going through the frustrating prior authorization process every 3 months. One of my patients has a sensitivity reaction every time he injects his testosterone cypionate. I switched him to testosterone enanthate, but the idiotic AI from the prior auth process rejected his claim and said to take the cypionate. Try explaining all that to an AI entity and you get nowhere. I had to call the pharmacy and tell them he will pay cash.
Be careful of AI. It is SHIT. When Zacks or Simply Wall Street has an article on a company they praise as a good investment, they usually conclude that some cheap AI stocks are better bets. That tells me that AI is under heavy promotion. WATCH OUT. Zacks et al are written by AI, and are generally useless generic infomercials.
Could not agree more…the billions big tech are spending on cracking the AI code is going somewhat…find the pick and shovel provider…Nvidia is one but at 56 PE multiple not my cup of tea. The earnings yield is 1.78% (inverse E/P). Those who find this compelling may come to regret it when the insane capex stops.
Hey JG, I know nothing about violins or medicine, but I know a lot about computers. I not only program them, I know about how they work internally, and I know how to make them run faster. I get paid very well for doing so. Although I’ve been working in the field for over 30 years, I’m still amazed at what I learn from AI agents. When I ask deep questions about the work I do, I get incredible answers. I have fantastic conversations with them. In many cases, more informative than I have with human colleagues. AI is not only real, but it is rapidly approaching the point where human-AI collaborations will become the standard way we conduct scientific research. You think AI is junk? Keep believing that, and you’ll soon become as obsolete as the horse-and-buggy.
100% Richard, no benefit in debating if its good or bad, its coming like a freight train or else these tech firms wouldn’t be dedicating so much capital towards it. Rather than debate the validity, best find a way to invest in front of it and make money
OK, any way to make money without stealing from others is fine. But would you rather make money investing in tobacco companies that kill people, or ACHV which will get approval in 1 year for the best drug to stop smoking and save lives? Yes, I am frustrated like you about risky bios, and it is tempting to jump on meme stocks to make quick money. Trouble is, meme stocks often backfire. With ACHV I got in 1-2 years ago at $4, but I added at $2.19 recently after a capital raise to get my average down to $2.93. Last week, a bullish analyst wrote a piece that caused it to jump to $2.75. The price will probably retreat to the mid or low $2’s again, and that will be a safe, entry point for new investors.
Fair points. Just answer the AI questions I posed above. AI is merely a tool. Do you think human doctors will become obsolete, and will you take the advice of Dr. Google on a serious medical problem? BTW, I had robotic ASSISTED prostate surgery for BPH a few months ago. Years ago, I thought that meant that the robot was doing the surgery. No, it means that small robot arms are introduced but the surgeon has full control at all times. My incision is much smaller with the aid of this robot assisted technique. It is good technology, but it isn’t AI.
In the right hands, AI can enhance scientific research, but as with the FDA, “human only” oversight needs to be done, which can waste time. When school kids use AI to write reports, they are losing the ability to read and analyze research, and more important, the ability to spell and use English correctly.
United Health Care is being sued by Medicare for questionable claims. No doubt, they have used AI as shortcuts to deny payments to patients by sabotaging true medical facts. The VP Brian Thompson got assassinated by rightfully angry interests. (I just got “corrected” by AI when I typed “interests.” The correction yielded “interested.” I had to correct the AI in order to not sound like a fool with poor English.)
As I mentioned above, you probably wouldn’t trust an AI doctor now, neither would I, although I do know that some initial consultations with only chatbots are being done in some parts of the world.
AI Agents are coming to every part of our lives, again the stuff I’ve seen in just the last couple of months is mindblowing and it literally did not exist this time last year. So 5-10 years from now maybe you will be talking to an AI Doctor, and maybe you won’t have a choice due to the economics, unless you’re extremely wealthy and can demand to see a human doctor first.
Steve
AI can produce more diagnoses and other data that are irrelevant. A patient doesn’t come to a doctor for lists. He wants the human touch. A simple example is right lower quadrant abdominal pain. The patient is scared he is going to die from a burst appendix. A human doc has learned how to examine the abdomen with his hands. The doc looks at the patient’s facial expression of pain and distress. He may know how an established patient responds to pain. He makes a judgment whether an ambulance needs to be called or whether the patient can be followed at home or In the office for a period of time. All this will never be handled properly by an AI robot. Just as the United Health Care VP was killed by some angry individual victimized by UHC, some angry relative of a patient with a bad outcome who was denied a visit with a real human doctor will shoot up the office where this took place.
As I say, in future you may not have a choice.
We may not want that to happen but the numbers of doctors are decreasing and the number of patients are increasing so the math means that some work is going to be outsourced to AI whether we want it or not; or you can do Telehealth with some guy in India or Africa to keep your costs down.
Doctors increasing patient lists means you’ll need to know when you’re going to get sick in advance, so you can book and obtain a timely doctors appointment, while you’re sick rather than after you’ve recovered.
Let’s also think about it…the CEO’s of the healthcare companies would rather someone be shooting the robots than them.
All I’m saying is demographics and costs as they are, means something is going to change and it’s highly likely we will see this within 10 years.
Just put yourself in the position of a sick patient faced with a critical illness who demands to see a real doctor. AI robots will not be tolerated. The hospital administrator and medical staff will be at risk for their lives from an angry relative of such a patient who has a bad outcome. Real doctors will command exorbitant fees because otherwise the patient will die from the AI system. That’s it.
Already today, most docs get crummy payments from the insurance companies for prescribing toxic drugs that don’t work. There are docs outside the insurance system that get $350 for 30 min Zoom meetings. These patients have been to numerous conventional docs who haven’t helped them. The real docs have wait times of several months for appointments.
I agree with you RG.
I have 40 years software development and data engineering/data warehousing design & development experience. I’m also building machine learning data pipelines for medical predictions with a data scientist and my colleagues have just built a Sepcis ML prediction which is being used in the hospitals.
These are not LLMS based but I look at the code I’ve written and look at how long it took me to develop and testing.
I then replicated the interface work in about 15 minutes with Gemini on a completely different platform, to see what the LLMS could do & I knew how to prompt it.
The rate of progress inside the last 12months is insane for coding. I’m now using coding assistants now to do 1st drafts of work that might take a few days to figure out, it’s done in minutes. It’s not perfect but it doesn’t need to be, because I then can enhance with my experience. but my productivity is through the roof.
I did AI at University and I personally didn’t believe this would be possible in my lifetime, if ever, but it is and it’s just getting started and I fear for my daughter’s future, I’m wondering what kind of jobs will be available in 5-6 years for her.
Would I trust a Telsa auto driven car. No, not without LIDAR, but other car makers, especially the Chinese are making a lot of progress and who knows what that will be 5 years from now.
Medicine will lag behind, it’s too regulatory and rightly so. However, the consultants I talk to are keen to address things like wait lists, quicker diagnose. My own project is aimed at reading all the docs to save the nurses and consultants time, and given them indicative predictions on how urgent someone is and we’ve tested it versus the consultants and it’s giving the same results so it’s going to become decision support rather than decision replacement.
I think the world we live in now is going to be completely different 10 years from now.
Steve
Totally agree with your thinking on getting into a car and leaving the driving to some electronic robot. Especially like Tesla that DOES NOT have lidar in bad weather conditions. That’s one of Elon’s biggest mistakes. Tesla sells for ?? $60 to $100 K ? and he can’t put LiDAR on it? If for nothing else , maybe a little less anxiety when you get into this rolling piece of sheet metal and go.flying down the highway at 60 MPH with computers deciding your fate! As for AI , it’s coming at you. Whether you like it or not. As are robots of all shapes and sizes. Big commercial truck are already being driven by computers. That’s 80 thousand pounds of freight rolling down the highway with NO driver soon. If that doesn’t scare the hell out of everyone, I don’t know what will? And certainly bad actors will use AI for evil purposes. Scammers are already using it to fleece innocent people. I read a recent article about an elderly woman who was scammed out of $600,000.00 on a gold bar scam. The parasites are out there looking for a host to feed on. Beware .
N.B. The fractals for S&P 500 dropped below 70 not 55 as stated in the verbiage. What are the implications?
John Fleming,
You scared me for a while. The FDA has gotten SRPT, not CAPR to withdraw its gene therapy for all patients. This is good news for CAPR. CAPR will have a webinar Tuesday 7/29 at 1 PM to discuss future plans and the BLA. We know the knowledgeable CAPR posters on ST for updates. I don’t see an announcement from CAPR or on Yahoo F. It is probably from social media. Do you have a source?
John, I just registered for the Zoom webinar from CAPR, from CAPRuccino last PM. Look for the pink info from PPMD.
Dr. JG Why do you think AKBA is dropping like a rock? Is this the usual short sellers that follow MM stocks around >
Or is this something about AKBA that is causing it to fall?
I think it’s call the MM effect
This is classic shorting before a major event like ER. Shorts want to buy at a cheaper price, so they manipulate markets with the help of MM’s. We can be angry about this practice, or profit from it. The last time I profited from this was about 2 years ago before ER for TGTX. The stock had been in the high teens. Shorts openly and loudly proclaimed that they will short it down to $5. There was no fundamentally bad news about the stock. I wanted more shares, but like most everyone, I was scared and only bought another 2400 shares at $7. That was only a few days before ER. These shorts played dirty. But with good ER, the stock rocketed past $10. I now have almost 5000 shares. I wished I had bought more, but I refused to chase the stock at higher prices.
Back to AKBA. This activity may continue next week. If you want more shares, wait for the shorts to give you opportunities below $3. Put in low ball stink bids. I will pass, because I am overweight from $1.75.
Thank You Dr JG I appreciate the help to an old retired school teacher and Minister of the Gospel of Jesus Christ.
To the Minister and all others: a spanking new use for A I:
https://www.npr.org/2025/07/19/nx-s1-5468637-e1/encore-religion-and-ai-what-does-it-mean-when-the-word-of-god-comes-from-a-chatbot
Respected church officials are like human doctors who people visit to help with personal problems. Neither Dr. Google or Pastor/minister/rabbi Google will help with this. Serious churchgoers are already well versed in scripture and commentaries which can be found on Google, but they choose a church whose minister they like and identify with. The minister doesn’t have to be a scholar with encyclopedic knowledge. People don’t want walking encyclopedias–they want humanity. Suppose a churchgoer discovers that the minister copied his sermon from AI. He would be angry and go to another church.
DonB?
If the sermon was totally prepared by AI that would be unacceptable by most congregations I agree.
Thanks Chris very interesting I think help in research is great i preparing sermons but the Pastor is the one who knows his people and that cannot be discerned by AI i don’t believe so it has its limits. Don
AKBA Poster Holy_boy on Stocktwits is a nephrologist. He is a big prescriber of Vafseo and works at US Renal Care which is supporting V acceptance. A day ago, he estimated the stock price based on Q2 sales for V. If less than $25 million, stock is $3. If $35 mm, $5. If $45 mm, $7. If $60 mm, $10. Most analysts think Auryxia sales will plunge since the patent expired 3/31/25. But Q1 A sales continued at $40 mm, surprising analysts. AKBA had a profitable Q1 instead of losses expected by analysts, which is why the stock rose dramatically. Most knowledgable people like Holy_boy and hsainu think that generic phosphate binders similar to A will face resistance in replacing A, so that is another bullish factor. Hsainu expects V at $60 mm + $40 mm from continued A, stock $10 in Aug. I think $5.
I am glad Linda is doing the webinar. looking forward to her comments. Hopefully, Wall Street likes it too.
MM thank you for replying on last weeks questions about AKBA. New question: because what big tech new AI buildouts will require, energy seems to be the most sought after resource now. What is your top energy stock to buy, EQT, VET, a nuclear stock? What about the bitcoin miners ITEN, CIFR Ive written about who are building huge energy centers (IREN has 3 GWs capacity coming) and converting to offer energy to big tech for AI? Appreciate your feedback.
IREN has been on a good run
RIP Chuck Mangione, I grew up in Rochester NY and met Chuck and brother GAP a couple times as they were family friends to a girl I dated way back when. He made beautiful music
DECK looks like an interesting play, they manyfacturer UGGS and the widely popular HOKU brands. They produce and import from Vietnam, so stock dropped from over $200 to $120 when tarriffs were announced. But Vietnam is close to a lower tarriff deal which would be a catalyst back up. The real good news is DECK just beat Q1 earnings and guidrd higher for Q2, and the stocks PE is about half of competitors Nike and Addidas and growing much faster than both so significantly undervalued
You mean “relatively” undervalued vs Nike, Adidas. It may be a good bet, but the question is whether DECK is absolutely undervalued using usual business fundamental criteria. Also, sometimes household name brands perform better as businesses with their stocks being overvalued. That’s the purpose of branding–get the customer to shun companies with better products just because of fear of trying products from companies with inferior marketing. I like rooting for the underdog, hoping that people recognize its value, but often vested interests handicap the underdog. This was the case with ARTH which had superior wound products, but majors like JNJ had a vested interest in destroying ARTH. Can Nike and Adidas handicap DECK?
man you overthink and confuse things JGMD – they blew away 1st quarter, increased 2nd quarter guidance, they are the fastest growing and most undervalued stock in their category with the most popular sneaker brand in the world right now, selling over $2 billion HOKU’s – I see them in my gym all the time now – if thats not an opportunity I dont know what is
Are these shoes made in Viet Nam? What are the tarrifs they will pay now under Pres. Trumps plan?
As I wrote above, Vietnam still negotiating with Trump, rumor is Trump will allow lower tariff or possibly zero to certain products if Veitnam agrees to no child labor to produce those products. Regardless, studies have said manufacturers will eat at least half the tarriff rather than pass on to protect market share AND DECKs biggest opportunity and focus is on expanding the UGGS and HOKU brands outside the US where its underdeveloped.
Vietnam need not worry about exhorbitant tariffs from Trump. They have bent over backwards this year to accelerate approvals for construction a Trump hotel. The tariff threats were all about getting concessions for the Trump Organization.
What does the EU tariff agreement do for the Trump Organization?
Chris has TDS which prevents a person from unbiased thinking and seeing the facts. DJT is the master negotiator, billions monthly new income from tariffs to stop the deficit spending, ensure Medicare and Soc Sec are solvent, reduce American taxes and possibly give a rebate, in addition to forcing other countries to buy and support many US industries, brilliant strategy but TDS sufferers can’t acknowledge this reality, shame. When will libs and dems realize that DJT hate and fear mongering just doesn’t work.
Steve, I don’t know if you have enough self-awareness to understand that TDS is a perjorative term. If you understand that, then I will gladly engage in a war of words that will expose you as a numbskull. If you don’t understand it, then allow me to explain. “TDS” is a term used by people who are so enamored with DJT that they believe he can do nothing wrong so that even legitimate criticism of actions by Trump are met with name-calling (“TDS”) rather than intellectual argument.
I can point to some good things Trump has done, like eliminating trans-women from sporting competition and closing the border (though he ordered GOP legislators to vote against closure when Biden was president). Neither Republicans nor Democrats have a monopoly on good ideas or bad ideas. Are you capable of naming any bad things Trump has done?
If not, I could diagnose you as suffering from CRI.
I thought you were smarter Chris, TDS is Trump Derangement syndrome – look it up before you make ignorant comments, its is a real mental condition. TDS sufferers trash everything Trump because its culturally popular and you fear being unpopular or shunned by the woke liberal mob. If you thought the things Trump did you mentioned below were good policies then why until now all you have done is bash Trumps every move? The reality is closing the border and getting males out of female sports are common sense to most but the previous administration sadly couldn’t figure out
and yes I can callout things I don’t agree with Trump on – so far its that he’s being too aggressive with deportation, need to go after only the hard criminals first. Also I don’t think he should pardon Diddy or Epstein’s mistress. But his economy moves (tarriffs) and DOGE efforts – both are brilliant and only actions Trump could come up with as a savvy businessman, nothing a lifetime politician would ever think of or have the balls to enact.
You’re right. The Trump tariff scare in early April gave buying opportunities at the lows. Now it is recovering, with a cup formation on the chart. After it stabilizes, it will form a handle The cup/handle formation is bullish. This is an excellent blue chip stock that you want to accumulate on weakness. The next tariff scare will allow increasing positions. This is better than buying SPY which is at all time highs. Returns in DECK will probably dwarf SPY.
If I get lucky with my AKBA, CAPR, ACHV, TGTX and maybe NGENF, I really want to bank the money in a few years and buy stuff like DECK so I don’t have much stress when I am trying to have peace in my life. The main problem I have found is that considering all the time I do DD, if the returns are only modest, that’s spending a lot of time for low rewards. If someone is like Buffett with lots of stocks being thrown at him, there is no need to take risks in NWI type stocks. DECK could double in 1-3 years, much better than a typical blue chip in that time period. Buying Berkshire Hathaway is like a great blue chip mutual fund. But whatever source you have for blue chips like this, continue what you are doing.
Let’s share ideas. As MM says, hear the pros and cons of every investment. Thanks.
MM: I’m pretty sure July payrolls will be released Fri Aug 1 rather than Thur July 31.
Why no comment or guidance on how to treat ENVXW? I have enough shares to make it my third largest position (after NVDA and PLTR) so I don’t need to exercise them to buy more shares. Do you expect them to last beyond Aug 19 (the earliest date at which they could expire due to the continuing value of ENVX) or should we sell them at the earliest advantageous opportunity?
Having really hard time not concluding the ENVX management are nothing but spin masters. The CEO sold 17,000+ shares the day after warrants were delivered at about $15.50.
Chiming in, asking for a response on the ENVX warrants. Appreciate a frank response! Thank you!
After looking into this I just sold them and took the cash now.
If the stock price rises the warrants go up but then the 30 day rule can kick in. If the shares go down the value of the warrants goes down.
Might not be a sophisticated play but I can re-invest the cash elsewhere now.
MM, what is the source for: “Stocks peak about every 36 years, most recently in 1929, 1965, and 2000. This 36-year cycle can be traced all the way back to the earliest eras in recorded human history, back to Pythagoras and Plato and the Axial Age around 600BC.” ???
Oppenheimers 7/22 CAPR timeline assesment, long hold after Q3 HOPE results
CAPR, upon approval, will fly high due to the huge demand for their drug. Add on Beckers MS, plenty of cash,no need to issue any stock, San Diego manufacturing plant read to go, and lastly all the SRPT drug issues. This is a no brainier in the biotech field. 100 by December 2026.
Agree. Only 2 risks. One, short term risk with dirty tricks from Prasad. Two, medium/long term, will CAPR get $1 million per patient annually? CPIX has Ifetroban, a thromboxane receptor blocker which had positive phase 2 results in cardiomyopathy of DMD. An oral drug, it may be priced at only $100k. It has a long road to climb to get approval. Personally, my guess is that it won’t be as effective as deramiocel which has multiple mechanisms of action beyond the single receptor blocker of CPIX. Even if deramiocel is shown to be superior to Ibetroban in efficacy/safety, CAPR may be forced to drastically cut the price for deramiocel.
First risk: Eliminated.
Second risk: No, CAPR won’t get $1M per patient annually. They’ll get about 40% of revenues because NS Pharma has to get its cut and we don’t yet know if price will be $1M per year or something less. Although still years away from marketing, you might want to establish a small position in MSCLF which looks promising in the whole MD space with P2 results less than a year away.
Right. I meant to say $1M annually per patient given to NS. CAPR gets $400K which is probably their net since NS pays the expenses, I think. So I’ll restate the 2nd risk which will come into play if CPIX gets approved for Ifetroban which costs only $100K. With Prasad gone, how long do you think it will take for CPIX to do phase 3 and get approval under a supposedly new (Trump) new (post Prasad) FDA trying to expedite approvals for rare, terminal diseases like DMD? Makary even said in today’s CNN video that vaccines could be certified for safety in 1/10 the time it takes for full approval, with the long efficacy studies being monitored post approval. I doubt that will happen. Will the FDA be watchdogs every month for every company doing the crucial phase 1, 2, 3 studies? Probably inefficient. Suppose there is little efficacy, and insurance companies have spent all that money with little benefit to show for it. Then the FDA has to withdraw the drug, creating chaos for many patients who have benefitted. What should be done is dispense with the bureaucracies of re-submissions of new BLA or NDA with more delays, whether to call endpoints primary or secondary, etc.
Is there any hope for ACXP? I want to sell losers to offset my big gain in TGTX.
One similarity between SRPT and NGENF is that each company has treatment for potentially a large menu of genetic and neurological conditions, respectively. It’s a long research road for the full development of each company. Even Linda of CAPR will be a mother of 10 exosome children projects. She is too young to retire from the scientific excitement. If she led a mundane grocery or clothing chain, sure she would retire.
Joh, is there a specific date for the 3Q HOPE data release, seems that will be the stock mover prior to approval?
Unknown date of HOPE 3 release. Today, CAPR PR’ed the link for the PPMD webinar tomorrow 1 PM. I registered 3 days ago and got the zoom link in my email. The replay will be on the PPMD site indicated.
MM what is driving UUUU stock price, its been on fire doubling last 2 months and what is the timeline for your $30 target?
I gave up on mining stocks decades ago. 30 years ago, I invested in junior diamond exploration stocks in the Northwest Territories in Canada. I studied indicator mineral characteristics that correlated with the yield of diamonds on the property. I went to geology conferences and learned much from a S African geologist who had experience in major mines in Africa. Several of the companies had high amounts of micro diamonds in drill core samples. But further drill results showed few sizable diamonds, and those companies were loses for me. I had great profits on one of them which was bought by a major producer, but my net losses on the group were substantial. Sound familiar?
So UUUU has some indication of rare earth mineral resources? That may prove to be uneconomic. Experienced mining investors would expect a pullback in the stock as the hype about rare earths for UUUU dies down. Maybe UUUU is good for uranium mainly.
The world market for diamonds has crashed due to advances in manufacturing artificial diamonds
I’ll take artificial diamonds over AI any day.
I am ringing the cash register on TGTX. Sold all shares at $35 and change. Reasons . It’s stalling. Financial metrics are poor. High price to book value $24.60 . Worse than expected earnings in recent quarters. Bought APPS @$5.43 and AKBA @$3.55. 1308 and 1012 shares .
It sure seems like everyone is extremely positive on AKBA. I sure hope their second quarter earnings report does confirm this support.
Hi John, can you explain why APPS? thanks
John, I admire you for your decisive decision making. I sold all my TGTX shares yesterday, thanks to your views and also YMB poster “Very.” Very has been critical of Mike Weiss’ spending sprees on Precision, a speculative carT therapy still in early trials. CarT MAY work out, but it could be a bust. Without spending sprees, the P/E would have been reasonable, instead of 148 now. Certainly TGTX has stalled, and Very thinks it could plunge into the mid 20’s after Q2 ER. I had pie in the sky hopes for at least $60, maybe $100, but we have to face reality and risks.
SRPT pause is released by FDA – is this a buy?
A temporary rise in SRPT. Very risky. CAPR is much better. Even CPIX is better than SRPT. CPIX had promising phase 2 results in cardio DMD. If it passes phase 3, it could be a big winner. It has only 1/7 the market cap of CAPR which is very close to approval.
Define the risk in SRPT? FDA allowing drug with black box warning and for now its the only drug available for its indication. Aug 6th earnings projected to be $.70 per share vs $.07 LY, and the stock was $40 before the pause with $100 analyst targets. Nothinh changed and dirt cheap, looks like an easy double from here
I studied the SRPT website and have pro/con feelings. The party line from ST is that they got approval for Elevidys based on limited data. Look at the EMBARK data. The primary endpoint, NSAA score as a composite summary of skeletal muscle benefits, has a p value of 0.24. Statisticians “want” a p value of below 0.05 to confirm significance. The p value is the estimated probability that a result could have been by chance, or that the placebo is no worse or better than the treatment. Excuse me, but most people in real life take measured chances–I shun the strictly academic approach of using arbitrary p values. In my medical practice, when I see patients with irritable bowel symptoms, I discuss how I have helped many people with gluten free diets. Academic studies are negative on the value of GF diets for IBS, autoimmune disease, etc. That doesn’t stop me from advising a month trial of the GF diet. There is little or no risk of doing that. My track record is far superior to mainstream doctors, 99% of them don’t discuss diets or any other nutritional agents. They have not helped any patients except by prescribing risky drugs.
The p value is arbitrary, but you can look at the overlap of treated vs placebo patients. With p of 0.24, there is lots of overlap, but the average among patients is clearly different than placebo controls. Now look at other criteria such as time to rise (TTR), 10 minute walk distance (10MWD) and others which have p values way below 0.05—great! They decided that NSAA would be the primary endpoint, totally arbitrary. I say, bullshit. The company rightly got approval on compassionate use in a terrible disease, even if some armchair statisticians and the leftist Prasad objected, wanting to flex his regulatory muscles. Thankfully, Prasad is now gone from the FDA.
SRPT faces significant risks still. At a low enough price, the risks are actually less risky from an investor point of view. Will the mitigation strategy of sirolimus work? Sirolimus and similar drugs are used in cardiac stents to preserve patency and greatly reduce foreign body reactions which occlude the stent. Same goes for sirolimus to reduce liver swelling from the Elevidys treatment.
It is noteworthy that ST poster Holy_boy has probably close to $1 million invested in AKBA from long ago. A few days ago, he bought just 1000 shares of SRPT as a speculation. Holy_boy is a nephrologist with US Renal Care. I respect his judgment.
So SRPT is a reasonable speculation with a modest investment. Long term, it is a good move at these prices. Short term it may very well double. I think CAPR is safer, both for the short and long term. The SRPT site is hard to navigate, and I don’t think they have proven benefits for cardiomyopathy DMD. CAPR will very likely get approval for cardio soon, and maybe for skeletal muscle disease in DMD. For just cardio, it will be the only available treatment beyond risky corticosteroids, so CAPR will reign supreme for that. PUL for skeletal muscle disease will probably get approved for CAPR as well, if the remaining academic bureaucrats can untie their regulatory tongues. These bureaucrats engage in intellectual masturbation about whether approvals should use primary or secondary endpoints and what these endpoints should be. But in the real world, the same disease process affects skeletal and cardiac muscle, so it is very likely that HOPE 3 will confirm the positive findings of HOPE 2 for both PUL and cardio.
If you get a double in SRPT, sell all or most of your shares. You played OPEN well by selling before the inevitable plunge again, so you might do the same for SRPT. Be nimble, with your sneakers laced as MM says.
JGMD you mentioned that you planned to attend the Zoom call with CAPR the other day. Were you able to and if so, do you mind sharing your thoughts? TIA
No, I missed the call because of work. CAPR posted slides of the presentation which is mainly about the science, written by KOL experts. There was just 1 comment that CAPR will try to get the LVEF endpoint changed from secondary to primary status. To me, that’s trivial, but that’s what bureaucratic animals making judgments about approval understand. They get paid for pontificating over trivial matters like this. Kinda like wolves and other beasts howling to each other in the evening.
Several ST posters who listened live to the call said that when Linda the CEO got emotional and sounded off against the FDA, the stock started dropping. My theory is that both CAPR and PPMD decided not to publish the video replay or transcript and just present the objective science. On the other hand, some people think that Linda kicked ass which helped galvanize the firing of Prasad. So she achieved her purpose and there is no need to replay her remarks.
Hello Dr.JG Anything new on CAPR today that is significant ?
Prasad’s firing on Tuesday will be great for CAPR. SRPT will do well until the next patient dies of liver failure.
Totally agree. Steve, take note.
CORRECT!
MKT CAPS:
CPIX $ 52M
CAPR $ 308M
SRPT $1,560M (FORMERLY $12B)
MM, interesting article about INO. Talks about the need for more dilution. Curious of your thoughts.
https://beyondspx.com/article/inovio-s-dna-medicine-platform-awaiting-the-ino-3107-catalyst-nasdaq-ino
Controversial FDA official Dr. Vinay Prasad departs agency | CNN
Will be interesting to see how this moves a few stocks tomorrow.
New World Investor for 7.31.25 is posted.