Dear New World Investor:
June quarter real GDP was reported Wednesday morning up +3.0%, above the +2.6% consensus.
Click for larger graphic h/t Yahoo Finance
I’ve been talking about this “surprising” strength for weeks, so I hope you weren’t surprised by that – Fed Chairman Powell certainly wasn’t. The Fed held the Fed funds rate range unchanged at 4.25% to 4.50%, although two Fed Governors voted in favor of a 25-basis-point rate cut, the first dissent by two Fed governors since 1993. Powell said the obvious: “Although swings in net exports continue to affect the data, recent indicators suggest that growth of economic activity moderated in the first half of the year. The unemployment rate remains low, and labor market conditions remain solid. Inflation remains somewhat elevated.”
A large surge in tariff-beating imports in the March quarter caused GDP to contract (for the first time in three years) by 0.5%. The June quarter bounce-back reflected a 30.3% decrease in imports, which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP. That added 4.99 percentage points to GDP growth. To some extent, the quarterly swings in imports masked some underlying cooling in the economy. Growth in sales to private domestic purchasers, a key signal of underlying economic growth, rose 1.2% in the second quarter. That was slower than 1.9% growth in the March quarter and the slowest growth since 2022.
On Wednesday, data from ADP showed private payrolls grew by 104,000 in July, above the 75,000 expected by economists and well above the 23,000 job cuts seen in June (revised from an initially reported 33,000 cuts). We’ll know a little more after tomorrow’s July payrolls report. As you know, I think the monthly numbers are mostly statistical garbage. The consensus expects +100,000 jobs, the lowest number in 10 months and much less than June’s 147,000. I’ll be looking at the past months’ revisions for a clue as to what’s really going on.
Today’s Personal Consumption Expenditures Index certainly confirmed Powell’s “Inflation remains somewhat elevated” comment. The headline PCE year-over-year was up a tenth from May’s 2.5% to 2.6%, the highest since February, versus the 2.5% expectation. That was the highest number this year. Month-over-month was up 0.3%, in line with expectations and a tenth above the upwardly-revised 0.2% in May.
The core PCE – the Fed’s favorite inflation indicator – rose 2.8% year-over-year, just above the consensus expectation for +2.7% and the highest number since February’s 2.9%. May’s increase was revised up from 2.7% to 2.8%. The month-over-month core rose 0.3% following May’s 0.2%.
Click for larger graphic h/t Yahoo Finance
Meanwhile, more than 80% of all S&P 500 companies that have reported June quarter results so far have beaten the consensus expectations. This could be the largest percentage of S&P companies reporting a positive EPS surprise for a quarter since the September 2023 period.
Market Outlook
The S&P 500 lost 0.4% since last Thursday after setting six consecutive record highs through Monday and a new intraday record high today at 6,427.02. The Index is up 7.8% year-to-date. The Nasdaq Composite gained 0.3% and also set an intraday record high today at 21,457.48. It is up 9.4% for the year. The SPDR S&P Biotech Exchange-Traded Fund (XBI) fell 2.1% and is down 4.9% year-to-date. The small-cap Russell 2000 dropped 1.8% and is now down 0.8% in 2025.
The fractal dimension‘s new uptrend stalled a bit, and it’s possible we could slip back into consolidation mode, either through the passage of time or a drop in price, but given how strong earnings reports are it doesn’t seem likely. But, you know, tariffs, etc. Could happen.
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Top 5
Changes this week: None
Near-Term – chronological order
AKBA Akebia Therapeutics – Vafseo launch
SCYX ScyNexis – Resolution of GSK situation
EQT EQT – natural gas price rebound
USL United States 12 Month Oil Fund, LP – crude should rise quickly
FCX Freeport McMoRan – copper shortage
Long-Term – alphabetical order
ABCL AbCelllera – Will become a huge pharma royalty company
UUUU Energy Focus – Domestic uranium supplier
EQT EQT – largest US natural gas company
IBIT iShares Bitcoin Trust – Bitcoin is headed for $150,000
META Meta – a (the?) leader in the metaverse
PLTR Palantir – a (the?) leader in AI applications software
SCYX ScyNexis –First new antifungal in 20 years
Coming Events
All times below are ET, and most presentations and slides are archived on the companies’ websites so you can listen to them.
Friday, August 1
July Payrolls – 8:30am – +110,000 expected; June was +147,000
Monday, August 4
TGTX – TG Therapeutics – 8:30am – Earnings conference call
ON – On Semiconductor – 9:00am – Earnings conference call
PLTR – Palantir – 5:00pm – Earnings conference call
Tuesday, August 5
SNAP – Snap – 5:00pm – Earnings conference call
Wednesday, August 6
CDE – Coeur Mining – After the close – Earnings release: call tomorrow
FSLY – Fastly – 4:30pm – Earnings conference call
Thursday, August 7
SFTBY – SoftBank – 3:30am – Earnings conference call
AKBA – Akebia – 8:00am – Earnings conference call
CDE – Coeur Mining – 11:00am – Earnings conference call
UUUU – Energy Fuels – 11:00am – Earnings conference call
SAND – Sandstorm – After the close – Earnings release: call tomorrow
GILD – Gilead Sciences – 4:30pm – Earnings conference call
ABCL – AbCellera – 5:00pm – Earnings conference call
Friday, August 8
VET – Vermilion Energy – 11:00am – Earnings conference call
SAND – Sandstorm – 11:30am – Earnings conference call
Big Tech: The Biotech & Digital Dominators MegaShift
There are at least four ways to make money in the stocks of these large, growing, dominant companies. You can:
* * Buy a stock and hold it
* * Buy a stock and write a call option against it
* * With a Level IV options account, write an out-of-the-money put option
* * With a Level IV options account, write an out-of-the-money put option and use part of the premium to buy an out-of-the-money call option
Apple (AAPL – $207.57) reported record June quarter revenues up 9.9% from last year to $94.04 billion, clobbering the $89.16 billion Wall Street estimate. GAAP earnings of $1.57 per share trounced the $1.43 estimate.
I told you the iPhone 16e is a great deal! Most of the revenue beat came from iPhone sales, which shipped at much higher volumes than the market expected. iPhone revenue totaled $44.58 billion, which was a year-over-year increase of 13% and $4.0 billion more than the consensus estimate. Services revenue of $27.42 billion was an all-time high and also beat the consensus of $26.85 billion.
Click for larger graphic h/t Seeking Alpha
On the conference call (AUDIO HERE), CEO Tim Cook said: “Today Apple is proud to report a June quarter revenue record with double-digit growth in iPhone, Mac, and Services, and growth around the world in every geographic segment. At WWDC25, we were excited to introduce a beautiful new software design that extends across all of our platforms, and we announced even more great Apple Intelligence features.”
Thanks to the strong iPhone sales, Apple’s installed base of active devices also reached a new all-time high across all product categories and geographic segments.
Wedbush maintained its Outperform rating and $270 target price, saying: “This quarter is just the appetizer for the main event, which is the launch of iPhone 17 in September.” They expect iPhone 17 to result in accelerated iPhone unit growth as pent-up demand from the global installed base takes hold. They estimate that about 20% of the 1.5 billion iPhones worldwide have not been upgraded in over four years. AAPL is a Buy under $205.
Corning (GLW – $63.24) reported a June quarter double beat, although by only a little. Revenues rose 7.2% to $3.86 billion, $20 million above the $3.84 billion consensus. Pro forma earnings of 60¢ per share beat the 57¢ estimate.
Optical Communications sales soared 41% year-over-year to around $1.57 billion. Optical Communications’ Enterprise sales grew a scorching 81% year-over-year on continued strong demand for new Gen AI products. Display Technologies’ net sales declined 11% year-over-year to $898 million, due mostly to a decline in large TVs. Specialty Materials grew 9% year-over-year to $545 million. Hemlock and Emerging Growth Businesses grew 31% year-over-year to $326 million.
The weak spots were Display Technologies and Automotive, which fell 4% year-over-year to $460 million. But even with the weakness in their large Display Technologies business, their operating margin expanded 160 basis points to 19%. Return on invested capital grew 210 basis points to 13.1%, and free cash flow grew 28% to $451 million.
On the conference call (AUDIO HERE and SLIDES HERE and TRANSCRIPT HERE), CEO Wendell Weeks said: “Overall, key secular trends and our ‘More Corning’ content strategy drove demand for our capabilities, and we continued to capture the powerful profitable growth outlined in our recently upgraded Springboard plan…Looking ahead, we expect our strong Springboard performance to continue. We’re seeing remarkable customer response to both our new Gen AI and US-made solar products. And we’re driving more Corning content into our Mobile Consumer Electronics, Display, Automotive, and Optical Communications platform..In total, we are positioned to deliver durable growth that will serve us well through 2026 and beyond.”
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They expect continued strong performance on the Springboard plan in the September quarter, adding another $600 million to their annualized sales run rate to produce 8.5% year-over-year core sales growth to $4.2 billion, above the $4.07 billion consensus. Profit again will grow faster than sales, with core EPS in a range of 63¢ to 67¢ versus the 64¢ consensus.
Their guidance factors in about 1¢ to 2¢ for the impact of currently enacted tariffs, along with 2¢ to 3¢ of temporarily higher costs as they ramp up production to meet the increased demand for their new Gen AI and US-made solar products. Solar has customers committed for 100% of polysilicon and wafer capacity in 2025 and 80% for the next five years. Corning expect to triple their solar sales run rate by 2027, adding $1.6 billion of new annualized revenue.
Wall Street loved the results and marked the stock up $6.57 or 11.86% on Monday to clear my $60 target. I think we can squeeze another $10 out of this one, so GLW remains a Hold for an increased $70 target in 2025.
Gilead Sciences (GILD – $112.29) reports June quarter results next Thursday after the close. Wall Street is expecting revenues to be up a measly 0.08% from last year to $6.96 billion due to the Medicare price negotiations, with $1.96 earnings per share, down from $2.01 last year. September quarter guidance should be for a 1.52% revenue decline to $7.43 billion with $2.17 per share, up from $2.02 last year.
Gilead said that the Committee for Medicinal Products for Human Use (CHMP) of the European Medicines Agency (EMA) adopted a positive opinion under accelerated review recommending lenacapavir for use as pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) to reduce the risk of sexually acquired HIV in adults and adolescents with increased HIV acquisition risk. Lenacapavir, which someone thought should be trade-named “Yeytu,” will be the first and only twice-yearly HIV PrEP drug marketed in the European Union. GILD is a Long-Term Buy under $115 for a first target of $150.
Meta Platforms (META – $773.44) also reported a double beat for the June quarter – by a lot. Revenues were up 21.6% from last year to $47.52 billion, soundly beating the 15% growth to $44.84 billion that Wall Street expected. Europe was especially strong:
Click for larger graphic h/t Seeking Alpha
GAAP earnings of $7.14 per share made the $5.90 estimate look silly.
Family daily active people averaged 3.48 billion, a 6% increase year-over-year. Ad impressions increased 11% year-over-year and the average price per ad increased by 9% year-over-year, so average revenue per person was up sharply to $13.65, second only to the December holiday quarter’s $14.25.
Click for larger graphic h/t Seeking Alpha
On the conference call (AUDIO HERE and SLIDES HERE and TRANSCRIPT HERE and FOLLOW-UP CALL HERE), CEO Mark Zuckerberg said: “Over the last few months we have begun to see glimpses of our AI systems improving themselves. The improvement is slow for now, but undeniable. Developing superintelligence – which we define as AI that surpasses human intelligence in every way – we think is now in sight.
“Meta’s vision is to bring personal superintelligence to everyone – so that people can direct it towards what they value in their own lives. We believe this has the potential to begin an exciting new era of individual empowerment.
“A lot has been written about the economic and scientific advances that superintelligence can bring. I am extremely optimistic about this. But I think that if history is a guide, then an even more important role will be how superintelligence empowers people to be more creative, develop culture and communities, connect with each other, and lead more fulfilling lives…
“…the reason that so many people are excited to join is because Meta has all the ingredients required to build leading models and deliver them to billions of people. The people who are joining us are going to have access to unparalleled compute as we build out several multi-GW [gigawatt] clusters. Our Prometheus cluster is coming online next year and we think it’ll be the world’s first 1GW+ cluster. We’re also building out Hyperion, which will be able to scale up to 5GW over several years. And we have multiple more titan clusters in development as well. We’re making all these investments because we have conviction that superintelligence is going to improve every aspect of what we do.”
Zuck guided September quarter revenue to a range of $47.5-$50.5 billion, well above the $44.84 billion consensus. He warned that they expect the year-over-year growth rate in the December quarter to be slower than the September period because they had strong growth in last year’s fourth quarter. The stock shot up $78.23 or 11.25% today.
The company bought back $9.8 billion of stock during the quarter. META is a Buy under $705 for a long-term hold.
Nvidia (NVDA – $177.87) pushed to a new record high of $179.38 after the company ordered 300,000 H20 chips from Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing to satisfy significant demand in China. At the same time, the EU is planning to build new AI gigawatt factories worth billions of euros, according to CNBC. Can you guess what a lot of those euros will be spent on? NVDA is a Hold for a $180 first target.
Onsemi (ON – $56.36) will report June quarter results next Monday morning. The consensus expects revenues to be down 16.4% from last year to $1.45 billion with earnings of 53¢ per share. Guidance should be for $1.50 billion in revenues and 58¢. Those are appropriately low bars while ON’s end markets are weak.
But management isn’t just twiddling their thumbs waiting for business to pick up. They are working with Nvidia to support the latest transition to 800 Volts Direct Current (VDC) power architectures, a transformative solution that is driving significant gains in efficiency, density, and sustainability for next-generation AI data centers.
At the core of this shift is a new power distribution system, which must distribute a massive amount of power with minimal losses during each voltage conversion – the same problem I had for my electric car runs at the Bonneville Salt Flats, but on a much bigger scale. Onsemi’s intelligent power portfolio makes them one of the very few companies able to meet the demanding power requirements of modern AI infrastructure with scalable, physically realizable designs. ON is a Buy under $60 for a $100 first target.
Palantir (PLTR – $158.35) also reports June quarter results next Monday, but after the close. The consensus expects revenues to be up 38.54% from last year to $939.47 million with earnings of 14¢ per share. Guidance should be for $981.99 million in revenues and another 14¢, which seems a bit low to me.
One month into their Palantir partnership, the co-CEO of Tele-Tracking said: “When we went public with our Palantir partnership last month, I expected interest. What I didn’t expect was the volume and caliber of opportunities flooding in. CEOs and CIOs who’ve never pinged us before are now pressing us for demos, pilots, and deep dives. They’ve been watching quietly, and suddenly there saying ‘Show me what you see.’
“Tele-Tracking has always been the industry’s best kept secret, a backbone for operations you’ve never noticed because it just works. And this is the seismic shift in how health systems think about technology.
“For decades organizations fell into silos:
* * EMR Centralisst who believed all roads run through a single vendor.
* * Point Solution Collectors who stitched together best-of-breed tools, then spent millions on integration.
* * Platform Pioneers who saw the future in unified operating models.
“Now those lines are collapsing. We are witnessing the EMR-only shops hitting capacity ceilings. Point-solution stacks are becoming maintenance nightmares. And platform-focused leaders are demanding true end-to-end intelligence.”
Piper Sandler initiated coverage of Palantir with an Overweight rating and a $170 target price. They wrote: “We have monitored Palantir Technologies for over five years, from its days as a coveted late-stage private company through its direct listing in September 2020, into the trough of disillusionment in late 2022 – when the stock plummeted to $6 lows on eroding confidence in multi-year 30%+ growth aspirations – and now into the recent ‘rise of the phoenix’ moment, where PLTR has been crowned an AI All-Star on accelerating growth.
“No doubt, Palantir carries a rich valuation premium and remains a high-risk investment, but it also has a one-of-a-kind growth and margin model that, if proven durable, could grow into a $24 billion run-rate business by calendar year 2032 via share gains across two $1+ trillion total addressable markets. We view Palantir as a secular winner in AI and initiate with an Overweight rating and $170 price target. Given the stock’s hyper-volatility, with a dozen 20%-29% drawdowns, we recommend investors be patient and take a ‘buy on a drawdown’ approach to build new positions.”
Say, fellas, you were “monitoring” Palantir when the stock fell to $6 and you didn’t recommend it? PLTR is a Buy under $100 for a $150 target.
PayPal Holdings (PYPL – $68.76) reported a double beat for the June quarter. Revenues were up 5.1% from last year to $8.30 billion, beating the $8.08 billion Wall Street estimate. Total payment volume increased 6% to $443.5 billion. Active accounts increased 2% from last year to 438 million, including a strong sequential increase of 0.4%, or 1.7 million, from the March quarter.
Click for larger graphic h/t Seeking Alpha
International was especially strong.
Click for larger graphic h/t Seeking Alpha
Pro forma earnings of $1.40 a share beat the $1.30 estimate. The crucial metric, transaction margin dollars, increased 8% to $3.8 billion.
On the conference call (AUDIO HERE and SLIDES HERE and TRANSCRIPT HERE), CEO Alex Chriss guided September quarter pro forma earnings to $1.18-$1.22, right on the $1.20 estimate. He highlighted six consecutive quarters of profitable growth, citing 8% growth in transaction margin dollars and the 18% year-over-year increase in non-GAAP earnings per share. He said: “We delivered another quarter of profitable growth, building momentum in transforming PayPal from a payments company into a dynamic commerce platform, driven by continued strength across many of our strategic initiatives, ranging from PayPal and Venmo branded experiences to PSP and value-added services. Based on our momentum, we are raising our full year transaction margin dollar and EPS guidance.”
He raised full year 2025 guidance from $4.95-$5.10 to $5.15-$5.30, nicely above the $5.09 consensus. Alex also announced the launch of PayPal World, describing it as a game-changer that connects PayPal and Venmo with Mercado Pago, Tenpay Global, and UPI, enabling users of any participating wallet to transact globally. He said: “Five of the largest digital wallets in the world, PayPal, Venmo, Mercado Pago, Tenpay Global, and UPI are coming together on a seamless global platform.”
He also highlighted Venmo’s acceleration, noting a more than 20% revenue growth rate and 12% Total Payment Volume growth, describing it as “our highest revenue growth rate since 2023.” PYPL is a Buy under $75 for a double in three years.
Snap (SNAP – $9.43) reports June quarter results after the close next Tuesday. The consensus expects revenues to be up 8.8% from last year to $1.35 billion with 2¢ earnings per share. September quarter guidance should be for $1.48 billion and 5¢. SNAP is a Buy under $11 for a $17+ target.
SoftBank (SFTBY – $38.15) will report June quarter results next Thursday before the open. The consensus expects revenues to be up 5.8% from last year to $12.07 billion but there’s no earnings estimate. September quarter guidance should be for $12.54 billion in revenues. Their new annual report is well worth reading – CLICK HERE. SFTBY is a Buy under $35 for a first target of $50 and then higher as the discount to hard book value disappears.
Small Tech
Enovix (ENVX – $13.40) reported June quarter revenues up 97.4% from last year to $7.50 million, easily beating the $6.34 million Wall Street estimate. The pro forma loss of 13¢ per share was 2¢ better than the 15¢ loss expected. They beat Street estimates for the fifth consecutive quarter.
In the conference call (AUDIO HERE and SHAREHOLDER LETTER HERE), CEO Raj Talluri said: “With our products sampling to two major smartphone OEMs, a leading smart eyewear company, and four additional strategic IoT customers, we are truly moving into our commercial phase…We recently witnessed the introduction into the market of an 8,300mAh+ smartphone battery in a $200 to $300 smartphone. The previous year’s model was 6,600mAh – a 25% increase in capacity. In the coming years, we believe battery capacities will grow to over 10,000mAh while maintaining similar physical dimensions, driving demand for higher energy density. With our leadership in energy density, and new manufacturing plant that can deliver it in volume, we believe AI-1 is arriving at the right time to break this bottleneck. ”
For the September quarter, Raj guided for revenues of $7.5 million to $8.5 million with a pro forma loss of 14¢ to 18¢ a share. The Street was at $7.29 million and a 17¢ loss.
Because the stock has gone up so much recently, the shareholder warrants are deep in the money. The company has the right to accelerate the warrant expiration date to August 19. Don’t let your warrants expire worthless! Either exercise them, investing more money in the company just before they transition to commercial production, or sell them. Chairman T. J. Rogers wrote a letter to shareholders explaining the warrant dividend – CLICK HERE TO READ IT.
The company finished the quarter with $203.4 million in cash, after completing the Korean asset acquisition and capital expenditure payments related to Fab2. ENVX is a Buy up to $20 for a 4-year hold to $100+ as their BrakeFlow lithium-ion battery takes market share.
Primary Risk: A new competitor invents a better battery.
First Trust NASDAQ Cybersecurity Exchange-Traded Fund (CIBR – $72.69) is a great way to own the industry that will fight cybercrime, which is expected to be a $24 trillion problem by 2027. There’s an attack every 39 seconds, and everything with a chip — your car, fridge, phone, computer, retirement accounts — is at risk. CIBR is a Buy up to $75 for a 3- to 5-year hold as the need for cybersecurity gets stronger and stronger at every level of society.
Primary Risk: A technology emerges to stop hackers.
Fastly (FSLY – $6.79) will report June quarter results next Wednesday. The consensus expects revenues to be up 9.43% from last year to $144.86 million with a loss of 5¢ per share. Guidance should be for $147.38 million in revenues and breakeven. FSLY is a Buy under $10 for a 3- to 5-year hold to $50+.
Primary Risk:Content and applications delivery networks are a competitive area.
PagerDuty (PD – $16.12) was upgraded from Hold to Buy at TD Cowen. PD is a Buy up to $30 for a 2- to 5-year hold as their digital operations management Software-As-A-Service gains market share.
Primary Risk: Digital operations management is a competitive area.
QuickLogic (QUIK – $6.34) introduced Aurora PRO, the latest evolution of its Aurora FPGA design tool. It integrates the widely adopted industry standard Synopsys Synplify FPGA design synthesis, optimized for QuickLogic’s eFPGA hard IP to provide 50% better resource utilization. This integration allows engineers to pack more functionality into smaller silicon footprints, reduce power consumption, and achieve critical timing closure faster, ultimately leading to more competitive and robust products. QUIK is a Buy up to $10 for my $40 target as their earnings repeatedly surprise Wall Street.
Primary Risk: Customers’ product introductions and associated royalties are unpredictable.
Biotech MegaShift
If you can afford it – and it would not be too big a position in your portfolio – putting $2,000 into each of these speculative biotechs might be a good way to start. Buying these out-of-favor, fallen, or forgotten companies that can get important products through the FDA at very low market capitalizations seems like a good strategy to me.
Risks
Development-stage biotechs are subject to investor sentiment swings from wildly optimistic to excessively pessimistic – mostly the latter recently. After the Primary Risk for each company, I’ve added the clinical stage of their lead product, the probable time of their first FDA approval, and the probable time of their next financing.
As always, you need to think about an appropriate position size. You could buy a full position upfront and then just hold on, or buy some upfront and leave room to add more on the inevitable financings, transient clinical trial setbacks, and the like.
AbCellera Biologics (ABCL- $4.47) will report June quarter results next Thursday. The consensus expects revenues to be down 13.16% from last year to $6.36 million due to lower development revenues, with a 16¢ per share loss. September quarter guidance, if any, should be for $6.61 million in revenues and another 16¢ loss. As always, it will be news on their internally developed products that move the stock. Buy ABCL up to $6 for a long-term hold to $30 or more.
Primary Risk: Partnered and owned drugs fail in the clinic.
Clinical stage of lead product: Partnered: Various Owned: Preclinical
Probable time of next FDA approval: 2027-2028
Probable time of next financing: 2026-2027 or never
Akebia Therapeutics (AKBA- $3.69) will report June quarter results next Thursday morning. The consensus expects revenues to be up 9.05% from last year to $47.6 million with a 3¢ per share loss. September quarter guidance, if any, should be for $46.64 million in revenues and another 3¢ loss. Of course, it will be news on the pace of the Vafseo launch that moves the stock.
I’ve been saying I expect Amgen or GSK to buy Akebia. Amgen owns the ESA market that Vafseo is displacing. GSK had an approved, inferior drug using the same technology that had a black box warning against using it in patients with heart issues. It failed, and they’ve stopped marketing it. Assuming everyone associated with that drug didn’t get fired, GSK might have a legitimate interest in trying to dethrone Amgen again. Can we look forward to a bidding war? Buy AKBA up to $4 for the Vafseo launches in the EU, UK, and US. I think GSK and/or Amgen will make a bid for the company.
Primary Risk: Vafseo doesn’t sell in the US.
Clinical stage of lead product: Approved
Probable time of next approval: 2026
Probable time of next financing: Never
Compass Pathways (CMPS – $4.35) was our first biotech to report June quarter results. They don’t have any revenues yet, of course. The GAAP loss of 41¢ per share beat the 43¢ loss estimate and the stock was up 10.41% today.
On the conference call (AUDIO HERE and JUNE CORPORATE PRESENTATION HERE and TRANSCRIPT HERE), CEO Kabir Nath said: “In late June, we announced the successful achievement of the primary endpoint of the COMP005 trial, the first of our two pivotal Phase 3 trials,” adding that the results showed “a 3.6 point difference in change from baseline in MADRS [the Montgomery-Asberg Depression Rating Scale] between the 25-milligram and the placebo arms at 6 weeks, exceeding the 3-point difference that is both clinically meaningful [p<0.001] and commercially viable.”
Kabir confirmed again that Compass is on track to disclose the 26-week data from the second pivotal Phase 3 trial, COMP006, in the second half of 2026, which means ongoing recruitment is on track.
Click for larger graphic
Regarding pipeline expansion, he said they are in the final steps of designing a late-stage clinical program in PTSD. He also provided an update on the anorexia study, saying: “There was an encouraging positive signal in the reduction of eating disorder and depressive symptoms in the 25-milligram arm, which was sustained through 12 weeks.”
I think COMP360 will work for treatment-resistant depression and PTSD, but I’m doubtful about anorexia simply because those patients don’t want to get better. I hope I’m wrong about anorexia.
Click for larger graphic
Kabir announced the appointment of Justin Gover, former CEO of GW Pharmaceuticals, to the Board of Directors. He led GW through the approval of Epidiolex, the first cannabis plant-derived medicine to be approved by the FDA.
Compass finished the quarter with $222 million in cash, enough to carry them into 2027. CMPS is a Buy under $10 for a very long-term hold to $200.
Primary Risk: Their drugs fail in the clinic.
Clinical stage of lead product: Phase 3
Probable time of first FDA approval: 2028
Probable time of next financing: Late 2025
Medicenna (MDNAF – $0.62) got five more patents covering the composition, formulation, combination, use, and therapeutic applications of IL-2 and IL-4 Superkines. The newly granted patents span major markets, with anticipated expiration dates ranging from 2033 to 2040 depending on the specific case and local rules, without accounting for any potential extensions. Buy MDNAF under $3 for a first target of $20.
Primary Risk: Their drugs fail in the clinic.
Clinical stage of lead product: Entering Phase 3
Probable time of first FDA approval: 2026
Probable time of next financing: 2025
TG Therapeutics (TGTX – $35.50) will announce June quarter Briumvi sales first thing Monday morning. The consensus of seven publishing analysts thinks revenues will be up 99.1% to $146.27 million with a profit of 29¢ per share versus 4¢ last year. If CEO Mike Weiss gives September quarter guidance – he usually just guides for annual revenues – it should be for $151.17 million in revenues and 26¢ earnings per share versus 2¢ last year. Hold TGTX for a target price in a buyout of $40 or more.
Primary Risk: Briumvi, the MS drug, fails to sell.
Clinical stage of lead product: Approved
Probable time of next FDA approval: NM
Probable time of next financing: Never
Inflation MegaShift
Gold ($3,355.70) is buffeted in the short-term by economic strength and higher inflation (Oh, no, the Fed won’t cut!) or economic weakness and lower inflation (Cut! Cut! Cut!). We just need to keep our eye on the ball US dollar, where weakness equals higher gold prices.
The fractal dimension, as so often happens with gold, says: “I’m fully consolidated? I don’t care. I want to be more consolidated!”
It’s frustrating in the short-term to wait, but in the past it has meant the upleg, when it comes, is a knock-your-socks-off kind of move.
Click for larger graphic
Miners & Related
Coeur Mining (CDE – $8.69) will report June quarter results next Wednesday with a conference call Thursday morning. The consensus expects revenues to be up 114.07% from last year to $475.3 million with earnings of 18¢ per share. Guidance should be for $504.9 million in revenues and 20¢ per share. CDE is a Buy under $10 for a $20 target as gold goes higher.
Primary Risk: Prices of precious metals fall due to US dollar strength.
Paramount Gold Nevada (PZG – $0.62) got a two-year extension of its Conditional Use Permit (CUP) and Sage Grouse Permit (SGP) for the Grassy Mountain mine from the Malheur County Planning Department. CEO Rachel Goldman said: “We look forward to continued collaboration with Federal and State agencies as we advance through final permitting steps in the short-term to move Grassy to a construction decision.”
PZG is a Buy under $1 for a $10 target as gold moves higher.
Primary Risk: Prices of precious metals fall due to US dollar strength.
Probable time of next financing: 2023
Sandstorm Gold (SAND – $9.36) will report June quarter results next Thursday with a conference call Friday morning. The one analyst still publishing on the company expects revenues to be up 22.17% from last year to $69.98 million with earnings of 5¢ per share. There is no September quarter estimate due to the impending Royal Gold (RGLD) merger.
Speaking of which, the more I look at Royal Gold, the more I like it. Nolan Watson built Sandstorm from scratch to a $2.75 billion market capitalization and now is putting us into a much larger yet still undervalued gold royalty company. RGLD will be roughly a $14 billion company once the deal closes, assuming no other changes, so only Franco-Nevada (FNV) and Wheaton Precious Metals (WPM) will be larger.
Royal Gold is the second-oldest gold royalty financing behind the pioneer, Franco-Nevada, and they’ve built a portfolio with a lot of long-tail upside in the form of hundreds of little royalties that might move forward someday, along with a good portfolio of very large cash-flowing royalties and streaming deals today. Their cash generation and growth have been just as good as Franco-Nevada, but they trade at a much cheaper valuation, about 20X cash flow from operations. If RGLD trades up to the same price/cash flow valuation as Franco-Nevada or Wheaton, that would be roughly a 70% gain from its current price.
Click for larger graphic h/t Stock Gumshoe
CEO Nolan Watson did Shareholder FAQ #7:
SAND is a Hold for the Royal Gold acquisition.
Primary Risk: Prices of precious metals fall due to US dollar strength.
Cryptocurrencies
Cryptocurrencies are a diversifying asset that offer a unique opportunity to make (or lose!) a lot of money quickly.
Bitcoin (BTC-USD on Yahoo – $116,838.82) goes up as mining gets harder, reducing the number of new coins produced and increasing the amount of energy required to mine each new coin. Bitcoin typically trades at over 2x its estimated energy cost. Since 2015, the energy cost per coin has grown from $90 to almost $5,000. Bitcoin’s price-to-energy multiple has averaged 2.92x over the last 10 years, with a standard deviation of 0.95. Price-to-energy multiples below 2x are good times to buy. Multiples above 4x have signaled good times to sell. Today we closed at 3.64x – getting frothy.
Click for larger graphic h/t Porter Stansberry’s Daily Journal
Boston Consulting Group and Citi made some enthusiastic forecasts of the market size of the technologies sweeping over us during the next five years:
Click for larger graphic h/t Boston Consulting Group; Citi
Click for larger graphic
BTC-USD, ETH-USD, IBIT, and ETHA are Strong Buys.
Primary Risk: Bitcoin falls due to over-regulation or is surpassed by another cryptocurrency.
iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT- $66.32) remains the cheapest and easiest way to buy bitcoin. IBIT is a Buy for the 2028, 2032, and 2036 halvings.
Primary Risk:Bitcoin falls due to over-regulation or is surpassed by another cryptocurrency.
Ethereum (ETH-USD on Yahoo – $3,695.91) turned 10 years old on Tuesday. My target is $10,000. ETH-USD is a Buy.
Primary Risk: Bitcoin extensions outperform Ethereum.
iShares Ethereum Trust (ETHA- $28.27) remains the cheapest and easiest way to buy ethereum. ETHA is a Buy for the coming explosion in token-funded start-ups.
Primary Risk: Ethereum falls due to over-regulation or is surpassed by another cryptocurrency.
Commodities
Each year, global demand for oil, natural gas, and coal grows by an average of 6.2 exajoules. It grew by 7.6 exajoules in 2024.
Click for larger graphic h/t Doomberg
Oil – $69.32
Crude oil touched $70 a barrel following comments from President Trump on Air Force One that Russia will face secondary sanctions if it does not stop the Ukraine war. Sanctions haven’t stopped Russian oil sales in the past, so I’m doubtful this will have any real effect. It could reduce the bearish sentiment, though.
The July 2026 Crude Oil Futures (CLN26.NYM – $64.71) are a Buy under $70 for a $200+ target. Only buy futures for all cash; do not use margin.
The United States 12 Month Oil Fund, LP (USL – $37.73) is a Buy under $40 for a $100+ target.
Vermilion Energy (VET – $8.22) will report June quarter results next Friday. The one publishing analyst expects revenues to be up 25.18% from last year to $599.5 million with a loss of 14¢ per share. Guidance should be for $558.9 million in revenues. VET is a buy under $11 for a target price of $24 or more.
Primary Risk: Oil prices fall.
Energy Fuels (UUUU – $9.09) will report June second quarter results next Thursday. The single publishing analyst expects revenues to be up 6.48% to $12.86 million. Guidance for the September third quarter is expected to be for $15.18 million in revenues. UUUU often either holds back or liquidates some inventory, depending on spot metals prices, so there’s always some extra uncertainty around the forecasts.
CEO Mark Chalmers appointed a new President. Ross Bhappu, formerly at Resource Capital, was instrumental in the acquisition of Mountain Pass, the only operating rare earth mine in the US, and the recreation of Molycorp, Inc., where he served as Chairman from 2008 to 2013. UUUU is a buy under $8 for a $30 target.
Primary Risk: Uranium prices fall.
* * * * *
RIP TOM LEHRER
* * * * *
Elgar – Nimrod (from “Enigma Variations”)
* * * * *
Your studying bitcoin treasury companies Editor,
Michael Murphy CFA
Founding Editor
New World Investor
All Recommendations
Priced 7/31/25. Check out the complete Portfolio page HERE.
Buys
These are the stocks everyone needs to own because transformative events are happening over the next year or two, and I expect to hold them long-term.
Tech Dominators
Apple Computer (AAPL – $207.57) – Buy under $205
Gilead Sciences (GILD – $112.29) – Buy under $115, first target price $150
Meta (META – $773.77) – Buy under $705 for a long-term hold
Micron Technology (MU – $109.14) – Buy under $120, first target price $140
Onsemi (ON – $56.36) – Buy under $60, first target price $100
PayPal (PYPL – $68.76) – Buy under $75, target price $150
Snap (SNAP – $9.43) – Buy under $11, target price $17+
SoftBank (SFTBY – $38.15) – Buy under $35, target price $50+
Small Tech
Enovix (ENVX – $13.40) – Buy under $20; 4-year hold to $100+
First Trust NASDAQ Cybersecurity ETF (CIBR – $72.69) – Buy under $75; 3- to 5-year hold
Fastly (FSLY – $6.79) – Buy under $10 for a 3- to 5-year hold to $50+
PagerDuty (PD – $16.12) – Buy under $30; 2- to 5-year hold
QuickLogic (QUIK – $6.34) – Buy under $10, target price $40
ARK Venture Fund (ARKVX – $32.34) – Buy for SpaceX
$20-for-$1 Biotech
AbCellera Biologics (ABCL – $4.47 – Buy under $6, target $30+
Akebia Biotherapeutics (AKBA – $3.69) – Buy under $4, target $20
Compass Pathways (CMPS – $4.35) – Buy under $10, hold a long time for a 20x return
Editas Medicines (EDIT – $2.51) – Buy under $6 for a double in 12 months and a long-term hold to much higher prices
Inovio (INO – $1.42) – Buy under $5, hold a long time
Medicenna (MDNAF – $0.62) – Buy under $3, first target $20, then maybe $40
ScyNexis (SCYX – $0.69) – Buy under $2.50, target price $20, then $50
Inflation
A Short-Sale or REO House – ($415,400) – Hold
Bag of Junk Silver – ($36.80) – hold through silver bull market
Sprott Gold Miners ETF (SGDM – $44.29) – Buy under $50, target price $75
Sprott Junior Gold Miners ETF (SGDJ – $47.53) – Buy under $60, target price $100
Sprott Physical Gold and Silver Trust (CEF – $30.12) – Buy under $35, target price $60
Global X Silver Miners ETF (SIL – $47.34) – Buy under $60, target price $100
Coeur Mining (CDE – $8.69) – Buy under $10, target price $20
First Majestic Mining (AG – $7.95) – Buy under $11, next target price $23
Paramount Gold Nevada (PZG – $0.62) – Buy under $1, first target price $10
Cryptocurrencies
Bitcoin (BTC-USD – $116,838.82) – Buy
iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT – $66.32) – Buy
Ethereum (ETH-USD – $3,736.13)– Buy
iShares Ethereum Trust (ETHA- $28.27) – Buy
Commodities
Crude Oil Futures – July 2026 (CLN26.NYM – $64.71) – Buy under $70; $200+ target
United States 12 Month Oil Fund, LP (USL – $37.73) – Buy under $40; $100+ target
Vermilion Energy (VET – $8.22) – Buy under $11; $24+ target
Energy Fuels (UUUU – $9.09) – Buy under $8; $30 target
EQT (EQT – $53.75) – Buy under $70; hold for much higher prices ($100+)
Freeport McMoRan (FCX – $40.24) – Buy under $50; $70 target within two years
Holds
These are holds but not sells – yet. They could get moved back to one of the buy categories if their prices drop or outlook improves, or they could become sell recommendations in the future.
Corning (GLW – $63.24) – Hold for $70
Nvidia (NVDA – $177.87) – Hold for $180 first target price
Palantir (PLTR – $158.35) – Hold for $180 first target price
TG Therapeutics (TGTX – $35.50) – Hold for buyout at $40+
Dakota Gold (DC – $3.60) – Hold for $6 target price
Sandstorm Gold (SAND – $9.36) – Hold for Royal Gold acquisition
Publisher: GwynRose LLC, 5348 Vegas Drive, Suite 868, Las Vegas, NV 89108
New World Investor does not act as a personal investment adviser or advocate the purchase or sale of any security or investment for any specific individual. The recommendations and analysis presented to members are for the exclusive use of members. Members should be aware that investment markets have inherent risks and there can be no guarantee of future profits. Likewise, past performance does not assure future results. Recommendations are subject to change at any time. Nothing in this presentation should be considered personalized investment advice. No communication to you by Michael Murphy or any of our employees or contractors should be deemed as personalized investment advice.
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Dearest Steve,
In response to your post this morning from the previous board, you have demonstrated a profound lack of self-awareness. Everybody knows what TDS is. You wrote, “its is a real mental condition.” No, my friend. Real mental conditions are those listed in the Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of the American Psychiatric Association. In its latest iteration, The DSM-5 -TR you will not find TDS. It is a pejorative term used by people who are so enamored with DJT that they believe he can do nothing wrong so that even legitimate criticism of actions by Trump are met with name-calling (“TDS”) rather than intellectual argument. You note that I commended a couple of actions by Trump and then wrote “until now all you have done is bash Trumps every move?” Good actions by government do not call for criticism, but bad actions do. I reiterate: Are you capable of naming any bad things Trump has done?
If not, my diagnosis of your condition as CRI will be confirmed.
Don’t use the DSM of the APA as authoritative on the broadest definition of mental disorders. The field of psychiatry is an example of my disgust at how only toxic drugs with lots of side effects are used to help psych patients. If there is no drug to treat a condition, the condition doesn’t exist, according to the APA. Put another way, a condition is the result of a drug deficiency. Hogwash crap. Even the use of the term, TDS is an arbitrary construct. It is OK to agree or disagree with some of Trump’s actions, but TD “syndrome” is an attempt to say it is a mental disorder.
What is CRI? Too many abbreviations are used. Probably many people other than I don’t know what CRI is. Abbreviations are convenient shorthands to reduce typing time, but in the process, the meaning gets obscured. Whatever CRI or TDS mean, they are not diagnoses.
JGMD,
As a PhD research psychologist and human factors and usability engineer, I’m not a clinician. I do like the Community Psychology approach that tries to avoid labeling people with psychological conditions, and rather, tries to improve our communities for individuals to thrive, with their unique capabilities and limitations. However, for those who want to ascribe psychological or psychiatric labels, and who also are qualified to do so, DSM is the standard that is widely accepted in psychiatry and clinical psychology. I have never heard of any requirement that a condition cannot appear in DSM due to a lack of an appropriate med to treat the condition. However, agree with you that MDs typically want to have a med to prescribe, and may not pay attention to lifestyle or diet issues as you do (which I agree is a good approach). For example, most psychiatrists want depressed patients to use an anti-depressant and will attempt to find one that is tolerated and effective for that patient. But also there are treatments that involve depressed patients in physical and social activities to overcome or lessen depression, that do not require meds as part of that specific program.
In any case, Trump Derangement Syndrome is not a real diagnosis accepted by the American Psychiatric Association or by the American Psychological Association (of which I was a former member). And software engineers are not qualified to assess or label anyone with a psychological or psychiatric condition, as is obvious to most educated people. Even if they worship an obvious narcissistic psychopath.
“Even if they worship an obvious narcissistic psychopath”, well ok now for balance give us your diagnosis of Joe Biden and his dementia.
Not saying it for ideological hatred or anything but just because his policies have first allowed and then cemented a VERY strong economic and military alliance between our current adversaries, Russia and China, a catastrophe for the USA. That is possibly the worst outcome of his time in power and something Henry Kissinger warned about a long time ago, too long evidently for Joe to remember.
Steve, I hope your stock recommendations are on more solid ground than your claims about Trump’s tariff agreements! And how they will cure the deficit, maybe result in tax refunds, and ensure Medicare AND Social Security solvency. (Have you considered becoming a politician? 😉
The ongoing tariff negotiations are not the same as a done deal as far as I know. Trump only has agreed to some frameworks of deals with the details to be worked out. In other cases, there is no agreed-upon deal yet according to the Trump team.
Please provide some quantitative details on how tariffs will ensure Medicare remains solvent (despite funding cuts in the Big Beautiful Bill), and ensure Social Security remains solvent (even though everyone else apparently believes it will run out of money. According to the May 2024 trustees’ report, the Social Security Administration will deplete its reserves in 2035). I’ve haven’t heard about tariffs balancing the budget or resulting in tax refunds this year either, but look forward to it! Again, some quantitative references or calculations or some details would be helpful.
Steve, professional psychiatrists and psychologists believe that you cannot diagnose another person as deranged or having some psychiatric condition or psychological condition without thorough evaluation, using psychological tests and interviews, not to mention years of professional training and a supervised internship. Apparently, you think you can diagnose someone with a derangement syndrome; and that there’s something real called “Trump Derangement Syndrome”, but its just a political insult with no real credibility.
It appears from your tariff benefit statements that you have some problem that “prevents a person from unbiased thinking and seeing the facts”. Maybe its you who should admit to having “Trump derangement syndrome.”
Hey its Chris buddy Opie running to his defense again – you both need to take a break from Tic Toc, Instagram, the VIEW and MSNBC and find out what’s really going on in government. You are both the product of the distorted, biased and propoganda driven media you consume, you really would benefit from getting the facts rather than opinions from losers like Colbert. The government has realized a second month of surplus, and is forecasting a huge surplus for fiscal 2025, allowing Medicare and Soc Security solvency among other positive things, and even a stimulus check to all tax payers – I suppose you can find some broken thinking reason (likely from MSNBC talk shows) why that is not all good news and the best economic situation this counties been in in decades. I still chuckle over Chris comment that “Its not the role of government to make a profit” – I knew then that he had no idea what he was talking about – that is exactly the broken lefts play book – when you overspend (as they always do) just tax the people more rather than generate new revenues. Had Trump not been elected Harris would be telling the US why they have to raise taxes to keep Medicare and Soc Sec solvent as they would have continued spending billions providing illegal immigrants, housing, food, and health care to illegal immigrants, and continuing to fund the billions of waste fraud and abuse that have been cut by DOGE
As usual you make up fantasies, this time about media. I don’t follow any of the ones you mention. Sorry to burst your stereotyped bubble. But you can keep lying to yourself and others. You claim biased propaganda, but you are stating your own stereotyped propaganda about another individual, just like you did with Chris. Do you see a pattern here? You think you know everything, even what media people use? You believe you are qualified to claim people have derangement syndromes that don’t really exist?!! You clearly have zero background and experience, test results, interviews to make your fake assertions about others. Just your distorted stereotypes.
Live in your fantasy world of worshipping the molester Trump with his bankrupted companies and 34 financial felonies. “Grab ’em by the pussy” braggart is getting implicated with his buddy Epstein. He left Top Secret SCI documents in a bathroom and an entertainment hall on his property for spies to peruse, and one of his appointed judges dropped the case. That’s who you worship and trust.
DOGE’s Musk has publicly disclosed that he has Asperger’s syndrome, a condition on the autism spectrum. Asperger’s is characterized by difficulties with social interaction, repetitive behaviors, and intense interests. Musk has also spoken about his struggles with depression and anxiety. He’s alienated his own Tesla customers. That’s your hero #2? He actually has real psychological problems, you don’t have to make up fake ones for him!
So that $200 million ballroom Trump decided to build with federal money isn’t waste? His frequent golf trips paid by the US government isn’t a little bit wasteful perhaps? DOGE approves this? Medicare is waste? Let poor school children go hungry, and go without medical care? Hey, those on Medicare and Medicaid aren’t rich, therefore you and Trump don’t care about them? Educating kids is waste? Banning books is more your MAGA idea of education? Why not just burn the books like Hitler! Best use of government money is building “Alligator Alcatraz” to glorify nasty prison camps? Let’s celebrate hate? Let’s send people to the most notorious prisons without checking if they actually committed a crime? Or sending Marines to LA to intimidate the CA population? The Army and Marines are to defend against enemies. CA is now the enemy?? This is Hitler’s playbook. Spread hate, fear, white supremacy, and refuse to accept losing the 2020 election?
Trump the bully is alienating our allies, threatening to take over Greenland, incorporate an unwilling Canada, take back control of Panama, insulting Mexico, threatening NATO. These used to be our friends and allies. Now they are having second thoughts. Some countries now see China as a more reasonable alternative partner now. Threatening and bullying our allies isn’t in our national interest. Putin and Xi are overjoyed I’m sure!
so glad you are not in any position of power or influence within our government, you aren’t as smart as you think, and you’re a victim of the fake news media funded by left wingers who are anti-US, you would’ve fit perfectly into Biden’s failed administration
maybe you can volunteer for Kamala’s next run
Another stupid empty comment. I didn’t support Kamala. So tell me who I did. C’mon, guess again. And again. Clueless Steve just makes up stuff…Trump Derangement Syndrome….Which media I follow…Kamala supporter….You are so full of yourself you really do believe you know who I am??
Now you tell me you know how smart I am? Wow you really believe you know everything! How would you know that Steve?
Want to actually compare real data on test scores, achievements, etc? Of course not. You’d rather lie to yourself and everybody else. All mouth, no substance.
I do look at fake news media, Fox News for one. And other sources, domestic and international. Just to give you a hint…. your stereotyped BS is so way off its not funny. You are just making up nonsense as you go on. You have no idea what you are talking about.
Opie yiuve brought absolutely nothing, zero investment value to this message board, nobody cares anout yiur political opinion, do you have anything to offer this board of investment value? If not, and thats my guess, then please take your political view back to tik tok.
I’ve never been on TikToc. By the way, you spelled it incorrectly. Two capital letters, no space between Tik and Toc.
And I already told you that I don’t use TikToc, after you guessed wrong the first time. Are you learning disabled? Having memory issues? Just so emotionally volatile that you can’t process what’s been written?
Again you think you know everything. And again you are wrong. And apparently you never learn that you are talking about things about which you are obviously incorrect.
And maybe somebody here needs to point out your mistakes, and your many claims that have no basis in reality.
And maybe somebody needs to point out to you that you do not control who is allowed to post on this board.
And finally, you should re-read Murphy’s rules #1, #2. #3 AND #4. You broke them all. Congratulations, you are disqualifying yourself from this board. While you try to kick other members off so you can lie with abandon.
I responded to your political comments. So if you don’t want political arguments, don’t start them.
I responded to your political comments. So if you don’t want political arguments, don’t start them.
I responded to your political comments. So if you don’t want political arguments, don’t start them. Do you get it now??
Why do you believe you can make political comments, insult and lie about others on this board, then tell them to leave?
just as I thought, you have no investment knowledge or advise for this board, only thought limited, blowhard, useless opinion – though entertaining
pretty funny, insulting people while asking why they are insulting you
I guess you didn’t read everything Chris, get caught up before putting your foot in your mouth again.
Steve, you are the one with foot in mouth disease!
Despite a page full of posts today, I thought someone would inform me what “CRI” means. I didn’t want to spend over 5 minutes of research of its meaning in the psych context. Suppose you meant “chronic renal insufficiency” even though I know you had something else in mind. In medical articles, they do the following. “Chronic renal insufficiency (CRI), blah, blah.” Then in the rest of the article, write “CRI, blah, blah.” If you plan to use “CRI” a few times, this is practical for both the author and reader. This style gives the meaning without wasting the reader’s time doing his own DD. Whoops, I used an abbreviation, but I think most investors know what DD means.
Do they allow abbreviations in court, or do they want complete words for best clarity for public open conversations?
Steve, DECK has been plunging lately probably because of the latest tariff scare. It may not apply to Vietnam where DECK has production. These are opportunities to accumulate DECK shares. Have there been any fundamental negatives in the company itself? Probably not.
These good blue chip companies usually don’t show big gains unless you buy on extreme weakness during geopolitical crises. If I buy DECK below $100, it is likely a reasonable 20% gain over a year. We can’t compete with pro institutional investors on blue chips, except for buying on extreme weakness when the crowd is running away. Mutual fund managers don’t like to see short term plunges because they might lose their bonuses or even jobs. They would rather expunge a losing stock than hold for the likely better gains. Short term, it is a PR stunt, STOOPID.
no fundamental change to DECK – Vietnam has been hit with a 20% tariff which is scaring the market that they will reflect that into the cost of their goods but studies how that companies will eat 1/2 the tariff and they will not raise price of sneaks equal to the other half because they will remain competitively priced to maintain market share. PLUS – most of DECKS growth is coming from outside the US where they are underdeveloped.
JGMD let me provide example of what I stated previously on DECK. One of the companies I manage imports Dairy products from Brazil, who has a 40% tariff. We decided to only pass on a 20% tariff to US customers and we will absorb the other 20%. In addition we restructured our marketing funds to reduce the 20% increase for the balance of this year to see how the US market reacts – so really we are passing less than a 10% increase to US customers rather than 40%. I believe most US importers will do much of the same to lessen the blow to the US consumer.
Thanks for both posts.
Testing
Chris with all the extracurricular political BS going on, I haven noticed if you’ve weighed in on CAPR since their Zoom call. We’re you able to listen and do you have an opinion ?
Take a look at SRPT again, CAPR might get approved some day way off but SRPT has an approved drug with exclusivity and now a more favorable FDA.
You can now listen on the PPMD.org site posted today. I did, and will write this weekend. It’s long, 1 hr and 14 min. Form your own opinion first.
I had not weighed in on CAPR since Linda’s call. I figured Prasad would not survive Laura Loomer’s attacks on him. His dismissal by Trump was the right thing to do, even if for the wrong reasons (it should not matter that he is a Bernie Sanders Democrat). No matter what Director Makary may say about Prasad, the fact that Prasad claimed three titles and thought his wisdom was greater than that of the crowd of an AdCom, Nicole Verdum and the previous Chief Medical Officer and Chief Science Officer made a prima facie case that he was unfit. A 42 year old with 550 publications (more than 1 every 2 weeks with no vacations also makes the value of his work questionable.
So with Nicole Verdum gone and Prasad gone where does that leave CAPR? I doubt their PDUFA date at the end of this month will bring a green light for them, but I still think they can get the nod from the FDA this year so I’ve kept my December calls, but lately I’ve been adding January 2027 Calls.
I never understood SRPT’s $13B valuation and am still not completely sold on gene therapies. I did well trading puts on SRPT after the second death from liver failure of one of their patients. SRPT may rise for a while but I doubt they will approach their highs again in the foreseeable future. I think CAPR will be multiples higher over the next year and beyond and, unlike SRPT, has never killed a patient. CAPR’s technology will eventually be used far beyond the limited market of DMD.
Agree about CAPR. Thanks for mentioning MSCLF. I liked the dynamic video by Phil Lambert, PhD, chief science officer, although Dr. Michael Rudnicki is the chief discoverer. Lambert’s talk seems to have disappeared, although the presentation is there. I like the innovative science behind 3247. It is a protein that restores some of the effects of the absent dystrophin in DMD. A tiny trial of 5 patients relatively advanced at ages 20-27 showed IMPROVEMENT in grip strength in 3 out of 5 patients after 28 days of daily oral treatment. If this remains true after more trials, it is better than CAPR which shows only far reduced deterioration. CAPR is still the best proven therapy for extending life for cardiomyopathy victims. I’m looking forward to more trials for MSCLF. Meanwhile, the stock will continue to fall from cash drain. They have only several quarters of cash left. As news of more success appears, the stock will be briefly bid up, then fall as cash losses continue. What’s your strategy on accumulation? Ironically, MSCLF has a higher market cap than CPIX which is further along the path to approval. Of course, nobody yet knows which therapy will be the most successful. I like CPIX the least, because its thromboxane receptor blocker is only one tool for therapy, and already in phase 2 there was bruising. It is just a fancy, expensive aspirin, which reduces thromboxane levels. CAPR’s exosomes have many mechanisms to help. MSCLF has interesting targeted therapy.
At universities, lots of articles are generated by the team. Often, the bigshot MD has his name last, with the medical student first, and other MD’s in the middle. So Prasad could have been just an armchair advisor to the many other people who actually did the work. This is approximately what he did at the FDA, trying to pontificate and over-rule the MD’s who did the real analysis. This is consistent with his leftwing outlook of CONTROL over others, although there are libertarians in academia who exert control also. But it is the nature of academia to attract leftwingers who like to pontificate and control others. The political feeding chain starts with public school administrators, then college heads of departments, then college presidents, then local and national political chiefs culminating in President.
Opie, you may infer that I think Trump is a control freak, which is true. A leader cannot sit back and pray that the ideal free market philosophy will be accepted by the world’s people. He must act decisively to correct the damage caused by rogue terrorist leaders from the CCP, Russia, Iran plus the domestic past leaders like Biden who did a lot of damage to US standing by taking money from the CCP, etc. The CCP loved Biden who furthered the CCP goals of destroying the US.
I wish world leaders who believed in freedom would be elected in fair, free elections. Then we could channel the defense budget into productive areas that help mankind. But socialism/communism has indoctrinated many people who think the most productive goal in their lives is to gain control and steal from others. So we need leaders like Trump who use their penchant for control to enable the free market to most efficiently help people lead better, freer lives, not Bernie Sanders types who glorify commies who kill their own people to show their control.
Chris, weren’t the patients that died on SRPT in final stages of the disease, and isn’t SRPT primarily a last chance medicine? If so then a couple deaths should be expected, if I was late stage I would want it also to extend life as long as possible. As stated in a my previous post, SRPT is the only drug approved right now so thats the only option for late stage patients
Sweetheart,
I truly admire the way you can insult someone and then ask him for help. A gift of shamelessness usually found only in real jackasses rather than in viewers of right wing fake news media that promote ignorance. It took me all of 30 seconds to identify the ages of the Sarepta patients who died. I guess your chronic indolence serves you well as a manager who tells others what to do but don’t look for me to reward you for it. You previously said you would avoid biotech investing. I suggest you stick to your previous inclination and invest in things more easily understood. And also, believe Trump when he says the BLS statistics released Friday were a manipulated scam, rather than an accurate picture of the US labor market. Even Trump’s own Secretary of Labor agrees with Trump. https://thehill.com/business/5432857-trump-fires-bls-commissioner/ LOL!
Again, I thank you for mentioning MSCLF. What is your strategy on accumulating a decent stock position? It could be at least a 5 year wait, but that’s how I made 6X returns on TGTX. Same question for NGENF. It is now below $2.50 in this quiet period. I’m getting ready to add.
I don’t think much is known about the efficacy of Elevidys (E) gene therapy. E is a bio similar dystrophin which is not quite the real thing. There is a relatively new field of peptides which are shortened versions of the complete protein which has biological effects. E is certainly a peptide with promise. (I had a friend who was injecting peptide fragments of growth hormone for anti-aging purposes. The fragments are MUCH cheaper than growth hormone which is crazy expensive and highly regulated. He was getting benefits at the time.) Such therapies have maximum benefits early in the course of the disease. I regard SRPT as a speculative bet at this point. For late stage benefits, I regard CAPR’s deramiocel as more likely to benefit skeletal and cardiac disabilities. CAPR has better data than SRPT.
Dr.JG What do you expect out of the earnings call for CAPR on the 7th?
Your guess is as good as mine. I hope you listened to the replay of Linda’s webinar of 7/29, available on PPMD.org, posted there on 8/1. We are expecting the type A meeting with the FDA very soon as to the path forward. The nail biting question is whether Linda’s request to change the cardiac endpoint for HOPE 3 from secondary to primary will be granted by the FDA. To me, it doesn’t matter. HOPE 3 will show benefits for PUL (skeletal muscle) and LVEF (cardiomyopathy), so it doesn’t matter which endpoint is primary or secondary. But Linda accepted the FDA guidance to make HOPE 3 a PUL trial and make that endpoint primary, with the cardiac benefit supplementary or secondary. Then the new FDA changed the rules under Prasad. Now that Prasad is gone, hopefully the FDA will have the flexibility to consider the LVEF and PUL data with the same standing. But you never know with govt bureaucrats. That to me is the only risk in the stock.
8/7/25 is D-Day for AKBA. The big AKBA ultra bull on Stocktwits, hsainu, thinks that AKBA will show $60 million revenue for V and continued $40 million for Auryxia for total of $100 million for Q2. That would result in $10 stock price that day. He is forecasting $1 billion annual run rate in early 2026 with target of $30 then. 8/7 is really D-Day for hsainu to see whether he is a hero or as flawed as the rest of us. My guess is $30 million for V, $40 million for A in Q2, for $5-7 PPS on 8/7.
MM, care to weigh in?
Yes they do.
OPEN – I alerted previously to this board and made killing on this last week, it retreated but news out tonite they regained NASDAQ compliance and cancelled reverse stock split shareholder vote and expected to report first positive cash flow quarter next Tues. The recovery of this company is underway and next weeks earning could be a huge price catalyst. Im in it again. This had meme stock support from the wallstreetbets gang and it could ignite again.
Good to know. Thanks, I am into OPEN as well.
If you don’t like rollercoasters , take a stock market vacation for the month of August. Today was a preview of coming attractions. IMO. Also replying to previous 7/24 comments. To Steve about APPS. APPS has got its mojo back . It’s up 116 percent over the last year. Strong earnings and very strong price to volume activity. It has superior earnings growth in the past 12 months. Increasing volume. And insiders are buying the stock. To JGMD about TGTX. My original stake of $8,000 ballooned to $21,000. And it had those red flags you mentioned. So I shifted those funds into AKBA, INO, APPS, PD, VST, and QRVO.
Good moves, except that I don’t like the harms caused by AI. Here’s another example of how human judgment is thwarted by the promises of shortcuts from AI. I don’t know if you are following CAPR, but some entity arbitrarily reversed the prior FDA’s decision to accept phase 2 HOPE and its OLE as criteria for approval. Then in the last minute, the FDA reversed this decision, issued a CRL which scared the hell out of the stock. Did Prasad sabotage CAPR single handedly? Maybe not. The FDA has been overworked because of DOGE cutbacks, so perhaps they were using AI to rubber stamp the routine standard of requiring phase 3 studies for all drug approvals. If that is true, this is a mockery of the PR from Makary and Prasad about flexibility for approving drugs for rare, tragic diseases like DMD. AI will never understand human compassionate factors that don’t follow algos.
I never buy stocks trading near recent highs, such as APPS. Chris mentioned CAPR about a year ago when it had jumped rapidly from $5 to $15. I liked the story, but not the stock. More recently, there was a scare from announcement about an Adcom, and the stock plunged to a low of $6. I was lucky to get in at $7. It was like I got rejected by the prettiest girl in the room, but got lucky when her boyfriend breaks up with her and moves away, so I take advantage of the opportunity.
For safe money, the best idea is from Steve–DECK. It is near the lows of about a year ago at about $100, although it had jumped from $60 not too long ago.
Thanks for your input. I am looking at APPS for all the above reasons and it was selling for $84-$88 for eight months in 2021. If it only regains to $25.00 I will be up 450 percent. Thanks for CAPR and DECK
Hey John, are you referring to me as the “Steve”? I don’t recall a discussion on APPS – what is it and why is it performing so well? Appreciate a summary, thanks
MM hope TGTX call is that good or better
Unfortunately, another bloodbath for them. Down almost 17%!!
I listened to the call this AM. CEO Mike Weiss had an upbeat initial presentation, but later he had low energy when taking questions. He let CFO Adam Waldman take most of the questions. I like how the first analyst didn’t say the usual kiss-ass “congrats on the results.” The only positive for me was that TGTX will study another autoimmune disease, myasthenia gravis (MG). For decades, MG has had good symptomatic treatment, but I have to research whether there are any effective disease-modifying drugs for that. I am cautiously optimistic about Briumvi being successful for that. Too bad there were no questions about that, and the call ended after only 30 min. Most of the R & D is going for subQ Briumvi, which will go on for another 2 years or so. SubQ Briumvi is targeted for the home market, but it will probably be cheaper than the present IV Briumvi. After 2-3 years on the market, IV Briumvi is given to only 1/3 of new patients. That’s disappointing, considering it is the most effective and safe CD20 drug. Hopefully, subQ will contribute to revenue, making up for lower price with much higher volume.
As I said before, the stock will probably plunge to the mid-20’s. At that point, I may re-enter, but with much less money than what I just sold last week. It becomes a less exciting growth stock than before.
YMB poster “Ouchie” today pointed out that Roche’s patent on IV Ocrevus expires in 2028 for EU and 2029 for US. They have subQ Ocrevus patented for longer, and TGTX has the IV Briumvi patent until 2042. About 1-2 years ago when TGTX got it extended to 2042, we were all excited and became ultra bullish for $60-200 targets. BUT THIS IS ALL FOR NAUGHT when considering that a generic IV form of Briumvi will take over the market because it is the cheapest treatment. Insurance companies care about nothing except saving money, and this is one area in which DJT is not a Pharma investor’s friend.
I don’t know how TGTX will cope with that. TGTX is a one trick pony, and will perish if TGTX doesn’t have the bargaining muscle to keep IV Briumvi going. SubQ Briumvi won’t be available until 2027-8. Will TGTX make money from it from only 1-2 years of use? This is why Big Pharma is in trouble after patent expirations, so they are always looking for acquisitions. Their remedy is to make modifications to their drugs like extended release formulations, or new delivery systems like subQ. The subQ product will not have a generic equivalent, but this will be irrelevant to an insurance company that will pay for the generic of the IV product only. I have enough concern about all this so that I won’t be tempted to re-enter even at $20. I doubt any buyout of TGTX by a BP will occur, because the acquirer BP will face the same problem as TGTX.
Mike Weiss should have confronted the patent expiration problem a long time ago before he engaged in spending sprees on SubQ Briumvi, carT. He should have maximized the bottom line and sold out already. Revenues of Briumvi are still growing nicely, but earnings suck because of the spending sprees. That’s why the stock plunged today.
MM, please address all these points before you write in the next RR to hold TGTX for a buyout at $40, which you’ve been doing for a long time.
the I agree with you that the call was not handled well. your expertise on the new candidate for UMB would be appreciated as a layman it would seem that other autoimmune disorders might be targets for UMB.
beet YOY +90% & QoQ 16% the shortfall hopefully went into STAGE3 prep for sub-Q but i did not hear anything from management addressing that per share shortfall. Mike W must have been tired after a long night of preparation for a call botched again.
What is the new candidate for UMB? The KEY issue is patent expiration of IV Briumvi. I don’t know how long it takes for generic IV or subQ formulations to get approved and launched, but count on such a generic to be launched ASAP, upon IV Ocrevus’ expiration in 2028 for EU, 2029 for US.
Generics often don’t have the identical effects of branded products they imitate. Example–I have several patients who have significant side effects from generic levothyroxine and generic amlodipine. This is because the tablet has other ingredients besides the active drug. The patients are sensitive to the other ingredients. They want the brand names and pay the extra for those. Here’s another scenario. Briumvi and Ocrevus disappear after generics are introduced, being mandated by the insurance company. People have side effects or results worse than they had when taking the branded Ocrevus and Briumvi. Over the following few years, data shows worse recurrence rates for MS from generics. Then the particular generic disappears and IV Briumvi (protected until 2042), subQ Briumvi, subQ Ocrevus are then approved by the insurance companies. TGTX stock rises from $2 to $30 again.
This scenario is highly speculative, of course.
i listened to the call and at 06.30 on the call they state that the first patient was dossed in new study using Azer-Cel there cart T inhibitor.
additionally they continue to explore the use of UMBE in Myasthenia Gravis (MG).
The ps shortfall was there working on other products and uses for UMBE. The current administration is NOT GOOD FOR PHARMA patents or otherwise, but that’s got a 3.4 year shelf life now and that could TACO.
what am I missing on the patent side of this that makes you think ” a generic IV form equivalent ” is only 2-3 years away. and if Generic gets mandated like AIDS drugs for 3erd world. why would tgtx not still derive some $ through the life of the 2042 patent. or are you thinking that Ocrevus’ expiration in 2028 will lead to generic Ocr and that Generic Ocr will sink Umb with the help of our beloved and well meaning insurance co.
if so tgtx only hope is UMBE will be s.o.c. buy the time Roches patent runs
In the polite obseqious language of a typical analyst on a CC, I’ll give more “color” and “granularity.” Those words were used on the CC of AKBA today.
Patents can be extended. “Bill” on YMB said he knows of a drug whose patent expired in 2019 but is still in use. Who knows how long IV Ocrevus will be on the market. It was approved 2017 and its patent expires in EU 2028 and US 2029. SubQ Ocrevus was approved Sept 2024, so there is plenty of time for subQ to make money for Roche. Whenever IV Ocrevus loses its patent, a generic version can be released. However, I don’t know if a generic IV Ocrevus can be released if subQ Ocrevus is still patent protected. If a company can extend a patent via a new form of a drug, logic would imply that subQ Ocrevus is a new drug with a new patent. So if IV Ocrevus loses its patent, then a generic IV Ocrevus can be released. But this is only my attempt to apply logic to legal matters like patents. Law is a corrupt, arbitrary framework of rules where logic may or may not apply.
Standard of care (SOC) is another medical/legal quagmire. SOC means the best care at the state of current medical knowledge. But insurance companies run medicine, and they can make inferior options first choice to try, and then if the treatment fails or there are side effects, authorization has to be obtained to get SOC treatment paid by insurance. Usually authorization is denied at first, and then docs have to fight with the medical director. Perhaps legally, the insurance company has to pay for the SOC, more expensive option, I don’t know. Suppose the insurance company refuses the SOC. They often stall to save money, hoping the doc gives up or the patient dies. 6 months later, the patient and doc win the battle to get payment for SOC, so the insurance company hasn’t violated a law which may require SOC to be covered.
For TGTX’s Briumvi, it may eventually be made SOC. I don’t know if that will give it the power to overcome competition from generics. Whenever the generic appears, most branded expensive drugs like Bri will be at financial risk. The 2042 patent life of IV Bri or circa 2050 patent life of subQ Bri won’t matter if a generic IV version is favored by the insurance company. This arbitrary, unknown time course of events makes my head spin, and I don’t plan to re-enter TGTX as an investment. The easy money has been made. Good riddance.
Reminder ENVX CEO sold 17,000+ shares July 18 at about $15.50. This was the day after the warrant dividend was paid. Friday the stock closed at $10.50. What else needs to be said about this management as super spin, pump and dump artists? Now they promote plant videos. Where are the batteries and their customers: still palaver.
More on ENVX!
https://x.com/tsnyctsnyc22/status/1951614774615089214?s=61
Aside from these financial dirty tricks by ENVX, I still don’t like the nondisclosure agreements. OK, the NDA may be a customary way of doing business, but why did the stock soar recently without substance to report? Substance = dollar amount of contracts, nothing else. If someone can show me substance I have missed, I would reconsider investing around $5. The market cap is too high considering the lack of hard data. Even a speculative stock with no revenue is better, provided the market cap is low and reflective of the risks.
Finally ask yourself why there are persistent massive shorts of ENVX.
Could it be many professional shorts are incredibly good at research and sniffing out shysters?
Arch Therapeutics
https://www.justice.gov/usao-ma/pr/former-chairman-health-care-company-board-directors-sentenced-prison-selling
Nice,tx for sharing maybe Terrence nocchi is next
Tonight I’m glad I’m in PLTR and not ON. MM: Comment on earnings and prospects for ON? Should one enter in ON anon…? or avoid and let the dust settle?
AKBA disappoints stock dropping – MM please analyze results and provide us guidance
Expectations were way too high. Vadu not a blockbuster…YET. Incredible how well Aurixia is still doing. Waiting for MM and JGMD comments
The key word is “YET.” I’ll let MM write first.
Same for TGTX.
Looks like the MM shorts had their way with AKBA today
New World Investor for 8.7.25 is posted.