Dear New World Investor:

Change is in the air. At Fed Chairman Powell’s final Jackson Hole Economic Symposium speech, he said: “Overall, while the labor market appears to be in balance, it is a curious kind of balance that results from a marked slowing in both the supply of and demand for workers. This unusual situation suggests that downside risks to employment are rising. And if those risks materialize, they can do so quickly in the form of sharply higher layoffs and rising unemployment.”

But, Jerry, what about inflation?

“We cannot say for certain where rates will settle out over the longer run, but their neutral level may now be higher than during the 2010s, reflecting changes in productivity, demographics, fiscal policy, and other factors that affect the balance between saving and investment.”

“Fiscal policy” refers to the concept of “fiscal dominance,” when the central bank loses independence and becomes beholden to the fiscal predicament of the national government. Fiscal dominance is historically a phenomenon that affects highly indebted third world countries. Regrettably, the US now has $37 trillion of federal debt and generationally high (and growing) debt-to-GDP.

Click for larger graphic h/t St. Louis Fed and @76research

And what about tariffs, Jerry?

“A reasonable base case is that the effects will be relatively short lived—a one-time shift in the price level.”

That one-time shift isn’t likely to be down, folks. But even so, Powell said: “Nonetheless, with policy in restrictive territory, the baseline outlook and the shifting balance of risks may warrant adjusting our policy stance.”

Whoa. The CME Fed Watch Tool shot back up to an 85.2% probability that they cut 25 basis points (¼ percentage point) at the September 17 meeting even though the 2% inflation target has not been hit. So all the talk is going to be about stagflation for the next many months. That’s not good.

On one hand, we have had several recommendations in a red hot high-tech economy, fueled by massive investments in AI and wealth effects. Stocks, especially large cap stocks and tech stocks, tend to represent this part of the economy in a disproportionate way. The other hand is the economy that is experienced by the average American worker and consumer, which is more connected to food, housing, and transportation than AI data center buildouts. That one is about to enter a recession, leading to interest rate cuts that will create another inflation bubble in the future.

Structurally higher inflation rates hurt consumers struggling to make ends meet, but drive up asset prices, from stocks to real estate to gold to bitcoin. In an environment of fiscal dominance, ownership of assets is key. The question is, as always, which assets?

We’ve done well in gold and bitcoin, and I believe there’s more we can squeeze out of gold and quite a bit more out of silver and bitcoin.

We’ve also done well in AI-related tech stocks, and here the question is whether it’s January 1999 or March 2000. You may remember the Nasdaq strength from 1995, after Netscape went public and shot up 500% in a few months, to 1998. It had all the magazine editors greenlighting stories about how expensive Internet stocks were. All the value stock managers were tearing their hair out or even closing their hedge funds.

Then came 1999, and everything shot up even higher. So if the present moment is like January 1999, we do not want to get off the bus. Yet. During my “vacation” last week (ha ha – is moving ever easy?), I’ve been thinking about the real cause of the dot-com crash 25 years ago.

I understand the AI bear case, and they will be right eventually. Huge amounts of money are being spent on AI datacenters full of Nvidia chips – about $400 billion this year. Of that, the building and land are about $100 million or 25% of the cost and the building is depreciated over 30 years. The Nvidia GPUs are about $140 million or 35% of the cost and are obsolete in 3 to 5 years. The power systems, wiring, cooling, racking, and so on are about $160 million or 40% of the cost and last about 10 years on average. Putting it all together, a realistic depreciation curve for an AI datacenter is around 10 years.

Using straight-line depreciation, that’s $40 billion of annual depreciation, while generating somewhere between $15 and $20 billion of revenue. The depreciation is twice what the revenue is. I doubt the revenue will go up, at least until after the inevitable shakeout.

This is the same problem the Internet had in its early days – CEOs overbuilding at massive scale without revenue. Back then, they laid huge amounts of optical fiber to connect the world. But it wasn’t long before Global Crossing went bankrupt. Corning dropped 97% by the end of 2002. Years after splitting their stock 2-for-1 every 90 days in the last half of 1999, followed two years later by the biggest write-down of goodwill ever, JDS Uniphase split what was left of the company into Viavi Solutions and Lumentum Holdings.

Like optical fiber, AI technology is real and transformative. But the capital cycle is brutal, the math is unforgiving, and the equity holders are ultimately incinerated. The datacenters will be built, the chips will hum, and some of the capacity will eventually prove mind-blowingly useful. But the investors footing the bill today will regret ever making the investment.

But I also understand the bull case – the 1999 scenario. Big Tech is in an arms race to dominate AI and governments worldwide are building sovereign AI data centers. In the US, President Biden’s CHIPS Act will provide $280 billion for semiconductor production and supercomputing. President Trump’s AI Action Plan is removing red tape, fast-tracking data center permits, and warning states that noncompliance could cost them federal funding.

Both retail and institutional investors feel underinvested in AI. With about $7 trillion in money market funds, there is plenty of dry powder to keep the AI ball rolling through its “1999” moment. But you want to know how I will know when to say it’s time to get off the train.

First, a little history. In February, 2000, I spoke at a MoneyShow conference and said Intel was a Sell. The audience booed. Afterwards, a sweet grandmotherly type cornered me to ask how my California Technology Stock Letter did in 1999. I proudly told her we were up over 100% and #1 in the Hulbert Financial Digest ratings. She looked at me with pity and told me she was up over 350%. I promptly took the CTSL model portfolio to 55% cash.

There are several ways to know when you are at or near a top. Investor sentiment will be very positive. And it’s not just what they say, it’s what they do – cash levels and short interest will be low and margin balances high. Cover stories will be about high school dropouts who ran $100 into $1 million. We’ll see huge mergers like the AOL-Time Warner merger in 2000 — still the largest ever — that culminated in the dot-com bust. And, most important, the Initial Public Offerings market will be so hot that OpenAI, xAI, and/or Anthropic will go public at an outrageous valuation and then triple.

But we’re not there yet. It looks like 2026 will be another 1999. Fasten your seat belts.

Market Outlook

The S&P 500 added 0.5% in the two weeks since the last issue, including a new record high over 6500 today. The Index is up 10.5% year-to-date. The Nasdaq Composite was flat and closed just shy of a new record. It is up 12.4% for the year. The SPDR S&P Biotech Exchange-Traded Fund (XBI) climbed 0.8% as the stealth biotech rally continued. It is finally up(!) 0.3% year-to-date. The small-cap Russell 2000 soared 3.4%. Small-cap stocks are viewed as more economically sensitive, so the Russell 2000 rose nearly 4% last Friday after Powell’s pivot. It is up 6.6% in 2025.

The fractal dimension is just about to signal this is a real uptrend with a few months to run. As they sometimes do right after Labor Day, Wall Street may try one last sweep of the retail stop losses early next week to pick up some cheap stock to fund their holiday spending. If they do, I expect it to be a shallow, short dip.

Click for larger graphic

Top 5

Changes this week: None

Near-Term – chronological order
AKBA Akebia Therapeutics – Vafseo launch
SCYX ScyNexis – Resolution of GSK situation
EQT EQT – natural gas price rebound
USL United States 12 Month Oil Fund, LP – crude should rise quickly
FCX Freeport McMoRan – copper shortage

Long-Term – alphabetical order
ABCL AbCelllera – Will become a huge pharma royalty company
UUUU Energy Focus – Domestic uranium supplier
EQT EQT – largest US natural gas company
IBIT iShares Bitcoin Trust – Bitcoin is headed for $150,000
META Meta – a (the?) leader in the metaverse
PLTR Palantir – a (the?) leader in AI applications software
SCYX ScyNexis –First new antifungal in 20 years

Economy

Today’s second estimate of June quarter real GDP growth increased from 3.0% to 3.3%. The Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow model has consistently predicted a stronger economy that the Blue Chip economists, which are the Wall Street consensus. It is hanging in there at +2.2% for September quarter GDP growth – again well above the +0.9% forecast of the Blue Chips.

Click for larger graphic

Coming Events
All times below are ET, and most presentations and slides are archived on the companies’ websites so you can listen to them.

Friday, August 29
Personal Consumption Expenditures Index – 8:30am – The Fed’s favorite inflation indicator

Monday, September 1
Markets Closed – Labor Day

Wednesday, September 3
EDIT – Editas – 1on1s – Wells Fargo Healthcare Conference
GILD – Gilead – 11:30am – Cantor Global Healthcare Conference
CMPS – Compass Pathways – 1:35pm – Cantor Global Healthcare Conference
ON – Onsemi – 2:10pm – Citi Global TMT Conference
PD – PagerDuty – 5:00pm – Earnings conference call

Thursday, September 4
GLW – Corning – 8:50am – Citi Global TMT Conference
PYPL – PayPal – 10:00am – Jefferies Fintech Conference
GILD – Gilead – 11:00am – Wells Fargo Healthcare Conference
EDIT – Editas – 11:30am – Cantor Global Healthcare Conference

Friday, September 5
INO – Inovio – 7:00am – H.C. Wainwright Global Investment Conference
August payrolls – 8:30am
ABCL – AbCellera – 9:30am – Wells Fargo Healthcare Conference

Big Tech: The Biotech & Digital Dominators MegaShift
There are at least four ways to make money in the stocks of these large, growing, dominant companies. You can:
* * Buy a stock and hold it
* * Buy a stock and write a call option against it
* * With a Level IV options account, write an out-of-the-money put option
* * With a Level IV options account, write an out-of-the-money put option and use part of the premium to buy an out-of-the-money call option

Apple (AAPL – $232.56) will introduce the iPhone 17 on September 9 at 1:00pm EDT. AAPL is a Buy under $205.

Gilead Sciences (GILD – $112.56) got European Commission marketing authorization for Yeytuo (lenacapavir) as expected. It is the first and only twice-yearly pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) to reduce the risk of sexually acquired HIV to be approved for use in the European Union’s 27 member states, as well as Norway, Iceland, and Liechtenstein. The marketing authorization application was reviewed under an accelerated timeline based on the assessment by the European Medicines Agency’s Committee for Medicinal Products for Human Use that twice-yearly Yeytuo is a product of major interest for public health.

Gilead’s Kite subsidiary is acquiring Interius BioTherapeutics, a private biotech developing in vivo CAR T-cell therapeutics, for $350 million. The acquisition complements Kite’s expertise in cell therapy by incorporating Interius’s integrating in vivo platform. This approach enables the generation of CAR T-cells directly within the patient’s body to create a more durable and long-lasting therapeutic effect by inserting DNA into the patient’s genome.

Daiwa upgraded the stock from Neutral to Outperform with a $128 target. GILD is a Long-Term Buy under $115 for a first target of $150.

Meta Platforms (META – $751.11) opened a $1 billion data center in Kansas City. They said: “The grand opening of this data center represents a pivotal moment as we invest in scalable infrastructure optimized for our global work in AI. Our data centers with AI-optimized design, the first of which is slated to come online in 2026, will blend high-performance and flexibility with a mix of custom hardware solutions.”

Meta has developed a new flat ultra-thin panel laser display that could lead to lighter, more immersive augmented reality glasses and improve the picture quality of smartphones, tablets and televisions. The new display is only two millimeters thick and produces bright, high-resolution images. In a paper published in Nature, they wrote: “Our work represents an advancement in the integration of nanophotonics with display technologies, enabling a range of new display concepts, from high-performance immersive displays to slim-panel 3D holography.”

META is a Buy under $705 for a long-term hold.

Nvidia (NVDA – $180.12) reported a small double beat, guided above the consensus, and saw its stock drop $1.48 or 0.82% today. July second quarter revenues rose 55.6% from last year to $46.74 billion – not too many companies doing $180 billion are growing that fast. But – horrors! – they only beat the $46.13 billion estimate by a measly $610 million. Data Center revenue hit $41.1 billion, up 56% from a year ago and 5% from the April quarter, but – horrors! – the estimate was $41.3 billion.

Click for larger graphic h/t Seeking Alpha

Blackwell Data Center revenue grew 17% from the April quarter. Earnings of $1.05 a share were just above the $1.01 estimate.

On the conference call (AUDIO HERE and TRANSCRIPT HERE), they guided October third quarter revenue for over $7 billion sequential growth to $54.0 billion ±2%, above the consensus for $52.76 billion. They have not assumed any H20 shipments to China in their outlook. I don’t expect any, although CFO Colette Kress said: “In late July, the US government began reviewing licenses for sales of H20 to China customers. While a select number of our China-based customers have received licenses over the past few weeks, we have not shipped any H20 based on those licenses.”

CEO Jensen Huang threw some red meat to the wolves: “The scale and scope of these build-outs present significant long-term growth opportunities for NVIDIA. We see $3 trillion to $4 trillion in AI infrastructure spend by the end of the decade.”

If I’m right that about 35% of that goes for Nvidia GPUs, that’s a heck of a lot of revenue! Colette said: “NVIDIA’s Blackwell platform reached record levels, growing sequentially by 17%. We began production shipments of GB300 in Q2. The GB200 NVL system is seeing widespread adoption with deployments at CSPs [communication service providers] and consumer Internet companies. Lighthouse model builders, including OpenAI, Meta, and Mistral are using the GB200 NVL72 at data center scale for both training next-generation models and serving inference models in production.

“We expect widespread market availability in the second half of the year as CoreWeave prepares to bring their GB300 instance to market as they are already seeing 10x more inference performance on reasoning models compared to H100.”

[CoreWeave provides cloud-based GPU infrastructure to AI developers and enterprises, and also develops its own chip management software. Its $1.6 billion supercomputer data center has been described by Nvidia as the fastest AI supercomputer in the world.]

Morgan Stanley maintained their Overweight rating, raised their target price a bit from $205 to $210, and wrote: “Sentiment has shifted to become much more positive, yet the company still cleared the bar,. Just a few weeks ago, consensus [for the October quarter] was $50B and there were fears of digestion, and now coming into the print consensus had risen to $53B including some China (which did not materialize in guidance). That guidance for $7B of incremental revenue — the first time that a company has guided for that dollar sequential growth — without China. That’s in just one quarter, and based on the commentary we heard from management on the call — and what we continue to hear from checks — continues to represent undershipment of true demand. The continued strength in Hopper is a testament to that, as compute shortages remain intense enough customers are still buying three-year-old Hoppers to serve some of that demand.”

Wedbush Securities analyst Dan Ives said: “With AI infrastructure investments continuing to grow with the company expecting between $3 trillion to $4 trillion in total AI infrastructure spend by the end of the decade, the chip landscape remains NVDA’s world with everybody else paying rent as more sovereigns and enterprises wait in line for the most advanced chips in the world.”

In the quarter, Nvidia returned $10 billion to shareholders through stock buybacks and dividends. They added $60.0 billion to their remaining $14.7 billion of buyback authorization at the end of the quarter. NVDA is a Hold for a $180 first target.

Palantir (PLTR – $158.12) won a sole source contract from NASA. Palantir was identified as the only software solution capable of fully integrating, automating, and ontologizing data from multiple disparate sources. In addition to its robust data fusion capabilities, NASA said Palantir provides built-in analytics and visualization tools that deliver actionable insights through a modern, user-friendly interface, enhancing operational decision-making in complex environments.

Institutional investors own more than 50% of the stock for the first time ever.

Click for larger graphic h/t @em013L

Due to the recent decline in the stock, I’m moving PLTR back to a Buy, now under $160 for a raised $200 first target.

Small Tech

Enovix (ENVX – $9.93) said Polaris Battery Labs, a global provider of independent battery performance testing, confirmed the Enovix AI-1TM smartphone battery as the highest energy density cell ever reported for a smartphone. In addition, it had very fast charging, reaching a 20% charge in 3.8 minutes, 50% charge in 12.3 minutes, and 100% charge in 39.5 minutes. ENVX is a Buy up to $20 for a 4-year hold to $100+ as their BrakeFlow lithium-ion battery takes market share.
Primary Risk: A new competitor invents a better battery.

Fastly (FSLY – $7.72) said analysis of traffic from mid-April to mid-July shows that AI crawlers made up almost 80% of all AI bot traffic observed, with Meta generating more than half and eclipsing both Google and OpenAI combined.

Fetcher bots – those that access website content in response to user actions, including those used by ChatGPT and Perplexity – also are driving massive real-time request volumes. In some cases, fetcher request volume exceeds 39,000 requests per minute. This surge is putting pressure on unprotected origin infrastructure, consuming bandwidth, overwhelming servers, and mimicking the effects of DDoS [Distributed Denial of Service] attacks, even without malicious intent. North America receives a heavy skew of AI crawler traffic, accounting for nearly 90% of observed activity.

Fastly can block the crawlers. FSLY is a Buy under $10 for a 3- to 5-year hold to $50+.
Primary Risk:Content and applications delivery networks are a competitive area.

QuickLogic (QUIK – $5.52) presented at the Needham Virtual Semiconductor & SemiCap 1×1 Conference (SLIDES HERE). There wasn’t anything new. I expect QUIK to show rapid revenue growth for the next three to five years.

Click for larger graphic

QUIK is a Buy up to $10 for my $40 target as their earnings repeatedly surprise Wall Street.
Primary Risk: Customers’ product introductions and associated royalties are unpredictable.

ARK Venture Fund (ARKVX – $34.92) has 12 holdings that have at least a 2% weight in the portfolio. The top three, accounting for just over 25% of the portfolio, are Elon Musk companies.

1 SPACEX 12.10%
2 X.AI HOLDINGS 7.10%
3 NEURALINK 6.05%
4 LAMBDA LABS 5.53%
5 OPENAI 5.47%
6 REPLIT 3.70%
7 BLOCKDAEMON 2.97%
8 ANTHROPIC 2.65%
9 HAMMERSPACE 2.61%
10 MYTHICAL 2.44%
11 SHIELD AI 2.10%
12 KODIAK ROBOTICS 2.02%

ARKVX is a Buy for the SpaceX IPO.
Primary Risk: Cathie sells the stock before the IPO.

Biotech MegaShift

If you can afford it – and it would not be too big a position in your portfolio – putting $2,000 into each of these speculative biotechs might be a good way to start. Buying these out-of-favor, fallen, or forgotten companies that can get important products through the FDA at very low market capitalizations seems like a good strategy to me.

Risks

Development-stage biotechs are subject to investor sentiment swings from wildly optimistic to excessively pessimistic – mostly the latter recently. After the Primary Risk for each company, I’ve added the clinical stage of their lead product, the probable time of their first FDA approval, and the probable time of their next financing.

As always, you need to think about an appropriate position size. You could buy a full position upfront and then just hold on, or buy some upfront and leave room to add more on the inevitable financings, transient clinical trial setbacks, and the like.

AbCellera Biologics (ABCL- $4.30) dosed the first participants in its Phase 1 clinical trial of ABCL575, their next-generation investigational antibody therapy being developed for the treatment of moderate-to-severe atopic dermatitis, with potential applications for other inflammatory and autoimmune conditions.

ABCL575 has been engineered to support a dosing interval of once every six months, which is less frequent than current clinical-stage molecules. The Phase 1 trial is a randomized, placebo-controlled, double-blind study to assess safety and tolerability in healthy participants following subcutaneous doses of ABCL575. Data from this study is expected in mid-2026. Buy ABCL up to $6 for a long-term hold to $30 or more.
Primary Risk: Partnered and owned drugs fail in the clinic.
   Clinical stage of lead product: Partnered: Various Owned: Preclinical
   Probable time of next FDA approval: 2027-2028
   Probable time of next financing: 2026-2027 or never

Akebia Therapeutics (AKBA- $3.13) announced the broad availability of Vafseo across all Innovative Renal Care (IRC) clinics, a network of more than 230 dialysis centers in 28 states serving more than 16,000 patients.

On August 18, DaVita began rolling out Vafseo to 200 of its clinics for a 90-day test of their standardized treatment protocol. On November 18, I expect them to announce broad availability. Then Fresenius Kidney Care will follow with their 90-day test and by early 2026, Akebia will be selling Vafseo to virtually every dialysis clinic. I bought more stock on this week’s weakness. Buy AKBA up to $4 for the Vafseo launches in the EU, UK, and US. I think GSK and/or Amgen will make a bid for the company.
Primary Risk: Vafseo doesn’t sell in the US.
   Clinical stage of lead product: Approved
   Probable time of next approval: 2026
   Probable time of next financing: Never

Compass Pathways (CMPS – $4.81) has quite a line-up of brokerage firm presentations coming:

September 3 – Cantor Global Healthcare Conference
September 9 – Morgan Stanley Global Healthcare Conference and the H.C. Wainwright Global Investment Conference
September 17 – TD Cowen’s Novel Mechanisms in Neuropsychiatry & Epilepsy Summit

Can’t say they aren’t trying to support the stock! CMPS is a Buy under $10 for a very long-term hold to $200.
Primary Risk: Their drugs fail in the clinic.
   Clinical stage of lead product: Phase 3
   Probable time of first FDA approval: 2028
   Probable time of next financing: Late 2025

Editas Medicine (EDIT – $2.65) will present at the Cantor Global Healthcare Conference next Thursday morning – their first brokerage firm conference presentation since May 13. EDIT is a Buy under $6 for a double in 12 months and a long-term hold to much higher prices.
Primary Risk: Other companies’ gene-sequencing drugs fail in the clinic.
   Clinical stage of lead product: Partnered: Approved. Owned: Going into the clinic mid-2025.
   Probable time of next FDA approval: 2028
   Probable time of next financing: Late 2026 or never

Inovio (INO – $2.46) jumped after they said they will begin their rolling submission of the Biologics Licensing Application for INO-3107 for recurrent respiratory papillomatosis after the FDA notified them that it agrees with its rolling submission timeline. The company will complete its submission to the FDA in the coming months and request priority review, with the goal of file acceptance by the FDA by the end of 2025. The drug is as close as you can get to a lock for approval, probably in mid-2026. INO is a Buy under $5 for a very long-term hold.
Primary Risk: Their drugs fail in the clinic.
   Clinical stage of lead product: Phase 3
   Probable time of first FDA approval: Mid-2026
   Probable time of next financing:After FDA approval in 2026

ScyNexis (SCYX – $0.85) will present at the H.C. Wainwright Global Conference on September 10. Their last broker conference presentation was November 12 at the Guggenheim Securities Healthcare Conference. Might be news coming. Buy SCYX under $2.50 for a first target price of $20 after ibrexafungerp is approved for hospital use and a buyout at $50.
Primary Risk: Ibrexafungerp fails to sell.
   Clinical stage of lead product: Approved
   Probable time of next FDA approval: 2026
   Probable time of next financing: Never

TG Therapeutics (TGTX – $28.96) has been weak since their June quarter earnings report, but it looks like the stock has bottomed. I’m moving it back to a Buy, now under $30 for a target price in a buyout of $40 or more.
Primary Risk: Briumvi, the MS drug, fails to sell.
   Clinical stage of lead product: Approved
   Probable time of next FDA approval: NM
   Probable time of next financing: Never

Inflation MegaShift

Gold ($3,477.10) has held up well as the fractal dimension flatlined right on the edge of declaring a new trend. Gold is a heartbreaker, but I think we could see a strong week after Labor Day that will finally kick off the next uptrend to all-time highs.

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Miners & Related

First Majestic (AG – $8.97) reported positive exploration results at their San Dimas mine. CEO Keith Neumeyer said: “The 2025 exploration results at San Dimas continue to reinforce its position as a high-quality asset within First Majestic’s portfolio of operating mines. We are realizing strong results from numerous veins at San Dimas near-mine extensions at Elia, Sinaloa, Roberta, and Santa Teresa, and we are excited by the new high-grade silver and gold intercept of the Coronado vein in the West Block. Extensions of historically mined areas remain untested by modern methods, and this speaks to the untapped potential of the district. These new results confirm our view that San Dimas has significant growth opportunities and remains a cornerstone asset for our long-term growth strategy.”

AG is a Buy under $11 for a $23 next target price as production increases and the price of silver rises.
Primary Risk: Prices of precious metals fall due to US dollar strength.

Cryptocurrencies

Cryptocurrencies are a diversifying asset that offer a unique opportunity to make (or lose!) a lot of money quickly.

Bitcoin (BTC-USD on Yahoo – $112,117.39) will reach its cycle peak between $150,000 and $200,000 in the next 6 to 12 months according to the digital assets team at Bernstein, during what the firm is calling a “long, exhausting bull run” for crypto into 2027. They wrote: “We believe we are in the middle of a digital assets revolution backed by regulatory reform. Now we believe the Trump Administration is in mission-critical mode (including the SEC and CFTC) to build the US into the crypto capital of the world, so a market peak is not anywhere near. We expect a long crypto bull market, continuing the surge into 2026 and potentially peak in 2027.”

Sounds right. But bitcoin is down from its $123,500 record high because we’re seeing people sell bitcoin to buy ethereum, including an $11.5 billion “whale” who made that trade this week. I agree that ethereum will outperform bitcoin, but that doesn’t mean dumping BTC to buy ETH. You should own both.

Click for larger graphic

BTC-USD, ETH-USD, IBIT, and ETHA are Strong Buys.
Primary Risk: Bitcoin falls due to over-regulation or is surpassed by another cryptocurrency.

iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT- $63.58) remains the cheapest and easiest way to buy bitcoin. IBIT is a Buy for the 2028, 2032, and 2036 halvings.
Primary Risk:Bitcoin falls due to over-regulation or is surpassed by another cryptocurrency.

Ethereum (ETH-USD on Yahoo – $4.457.16) has surging more than 200% from its April lows compared to a 45% rise in bitcoin during the same period. It briefly hit a new all-time high Sunday over $4,900, after Powell’s pivot. ETH-USD is a Buy.
Primary Risk: Bitcoin extensions outperform Ethereum.

iShares Ethereum Trust (ETHA- $33.57) remains the cheapest and easiest way to buy ethereum. ETHA is a Buy for the coming explosion in token-funded start-ups.
Primary Risk: Ethereum falls due to over-regulation or is surpassed by another cryptocurrency.

Commodities

Oil – $64.33

Oil hardly moved over the last two weeks. The next news should be US shale production starting to fall and Saudi exports not picking up, creating a supply crunch just as Powell pivots to a stimulative monetary policy, increasing demand. Things are going to get interesting. Unlike the COVID-led demand suppression we saw in 2020/2021, the dynamics of a supply shortage are a bit more nuanced. It may take a few weeks for the paper oil traders to see them.

The July 2026 Crude Oil Futures (CLN26.NYM – $62.49) are a Buy under $70 for a $200+ target. Only buy futures for all cash; do not use margin.

The United States 12 Month Oil Fund, LP (USL – $36.25) is a Buy under $40 for a $100+ target.

Vermilion Energy (VET – $7.68) is a Buy under $11 for a target price of $24 or more.
Primary Risk: Oil prices fall.

Energy Fuels (UUUU – $11.71) rose after they announced that they have successfully completed production of their first kilogram of dysprosium (Dy) oxide at pilot scale at their White Mesa Mill in Utah. They achieved a purity of 99.9% Dy, which is well in excess of the 99.5% commercial specification. The Mill expects to continue producing dysprosium oxide at a rate of two kilograms per week.

Energy Fuels is the first US company to both produce high-purity Dy oxide and publicly disclose actual production volumes and purities. These oxides are being produced from monazite mined in Florida and Georgia. They demonstrate the viability of Energy Fuels’ completely non-Chinese rare earth oxide supply chain. Multiple magnet manufacturers and OEMs have already expressed their strong interest in obtaining these samples to accelerate their validation processes.

Pilot-scale production is expected to continue until approximately 15 kilograms of Dy oxide are produced. At that point, Energy Fuels intends to produce high purity terbium (Tb) oxide and is targeting the December quarter for the first samples of Tb oxide to be available for end-user validation.

Due to the ongoing success of this “heavy” REE pilot project, the company will construct and commission commercial-scale Dy, Tb, and potentially other “heavy” REE separation capacity at the White Mesa Mill, which could be in production as soon as the fourth quarter of 2026.

Last year, Energy Fuels announced the completion and commissioning of its commercial scale “light” rare earth oxide circuit at the Mill with a successful run of on-spec neodymium-praseodymium (NdPr) oxide used in permanent magnets for electric mobility, robotics, drones, wind energy, and defense technologies. That material has been tested and qualified by magnet makers around the world and is expected to be used in EVs and hybrid vehicles available for sale in the US, EU, and Asia this year.

Energy Fuels also signed a Memorandum of Understanding with Vulcan Elements, a US manufacturer of rare earth permanent magnets, to collaborate on creating a resilient domestic supply chain for rare earth magnets independent of China. Energy Fuels has agreed to supply initial quantities of high-purity neodymium-praseodymium (NdPr) and dysprosium (Dy) oxides for production of rare earth magnet applications. After validating the oxides, Vulcan and Energy Fuels intend to negotiate additional long-term supply agreements for both NdPr and Dy oxides.

One day, lightning is going to strike this stock as it is recognized as the US rare earth elements winner. The swoosh to $30 will be quick. UUUU is a buy under $8 for a $30 target.
Primary Risk: Uranium prices fall.

EQT (EQT – $52.38) signed a 20-year definitive sales and purchase agreement with Sempra Infrastructure, a subsidiary of Sempra (SRE) for the supply of 2 million tonnes per annum of liquefied natural gas (LNG) offtake from the Port Arthur LNG Phase 2 development project in Jefferson County, Texas. EQT will purchase the LNG on a free-on-board basis at a price indexed to Henry Hub.

EQT gets two things out of this deal. First, they advance the Port Arthur project, which is a future customer for their natural gas production. Second, they intend to be an integrated source for LNG exports to higher-price-paying markets, and this locks in LNG supply that’s likely to be scarce for many years. EQT is a buy under $70 for a long-term hold for much higher prices.
Primary Risk:Natural gas prices fall.

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RIP Michael Antunes

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Khatia Buniatishvili plays Franz Liszt’s “Ständchen” Piano Transcriptions After Schubert

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Michael Murphy CFA
Founding Editor
New World Investor

All Recommendations

Priced 08/28/25. Check out the complete Portfolio page HERE.

Buys
These are the stocks everyone needs to own because transformative events are happening over the next year or two, and I expect to hold them long-term.

Tech Dominators
  Apple Computer (AAPL – $232.56) – Buy under $205
  Gilead Sciences (GILD – $112.56) – Buy under $115, first target price $150
  Meta (META – $751.11) – Buy under $705 for a long-term hold
  Micron Technology (MU – $122.00) – Buy under $125, target price $200
  Onsemi (ON – $50.78) – Buy under $60, first target price $100
  Palantir (PLTR – $158.12) – Buy under $160 for $200 first target price
  PayPal (PYPL – $70.06) – Buy under $75, target price $150
  Snap (SNAP – $7.10) – Buy under $11, target price $17+
  SoftBank (SFTBY – $54.74) – Buy under $35, target price $50+

Small Tech
  Enovix (ENVX – $9.93) – Buy under $20; 4-year hold to $100+
  First Trust NASDAQ Cybersecurity ETF (CIBR – $73.92) – Buy under $75; 3- to 5-year hold
  Fastly (FSLY – $7.72) – Buy under $10 for a 3- to 5-year hold to $50+
  PagerDuty (PD – $16.92) – Buy under $30; 2- to 5-year hold
  QuickLogic (QUIK – $5.52) – Buy under $10, target price $40
  ARK Venture Fund (ARKVX – $34.92) – Buy for SpaceX

$20-for-$1 Biotech
  AbCellera Biologics (ABCL – $4.30) – Buy under $6, target $30+
  Akebia Biotherapeutics (AKBA – $3.13) – Buy under $4, target $20
  Compass Pathways (CMPS – $4.81) – Buy under $10, hold a long time for a 20x return
  Editas Medicines (EDIT – $2.65) – Buy under $6 for a double in 12 months and a long-term hold to much higher prices
  Inovio (INO – $2.46) – Buy under $5, hold a long time
  Medicenna (MDNAF – $0.76) – Buy under $3, first target $20, then maybe $40
  ScyNexis (SCYX – $0.85) – Buy under $2.50, target price $20, then $50
  TG Therapeutics (TGTX – $28.96) – Buy under $30 for buyout at $40+

Inflation
  A Short-Sale or REO House – ($415,400) – Hold
  Bag of Junk Silver – ($39.70) – hold through silver bull market
  Sprott Gold Miners ETF (SGDM – $51.60) – Buy under $50, target price $75
  Sprott Junior Gold Miners ETF (SGDJ – $55.88) – Buy under $60, target price $100
  Sprott Physical Gold and Silver Trust (CEF – $31.77) – Buy under $35, target price $60
  Global X Silver Miners ETF (SIL – $56.32) – Buy under $60, target price $100
  Coeur Mining (CDE – $12.56) – Buy under $10, target price $20
  First Majestic Mining (AG – $8.97) – Buy under $11, next target price $23
  Paramount Gold Nevada (PZG – $0.99) – Buy under $1, first target price $10

Cryptocurrencies
  Bitcoin (BTC-USD – $112,117.39) – Buy
  iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT – $63.58) – Buy
  Ethereum (ETH-USD – $4,457.16)– Buy
  iShares Ethereum Trust (ETHA- $33.57) – Buy

Commodities
  Crude Oil Futures – July 2026 (CLN26.NYM – $62.49) – Buy under $70; $200+ target
  United States 12 Month Oil Fund, LP (USL – $36.25) – Buy under $40; $100+ target
  Vermilion Energy (VET – $7.68) – Buy under $11; $24+ target
  Energy Fuels (UUUU – $11.71) – Buy under $8; $30 target
  EQT (EQT – $52.38) – Buy under $70; hold for much higher prices ($100+)
  Freeport McMoRan (FCX – $44.38) – Buy under $50; $70 target within two years

Holds
These are holds but not sells – yet. They could get moved back to one of the buy categories if their prices drop or outlook improves, or they could become sell recommendations in the future.
  Corning (GLW – $68.94) – Hold for $70
  Nvidia (NVDA – $180.12) – Hold for $180 first target price
  Dakota Gold (DC – $4.12) – Hold for $6 target price
  Sandstorm Gold (SAND – $10.96) – Hold for Royal Gold acquisition

Publisher: GwynRose LLC, 5348 Vegas Drive, Suite 868, Las Vegas, NV 89108

New World Investor does not act as a personal investment adviser or advocate the purchase or sale of any security or investment for any specific individual. The recommendations and analysis presented to members are for the exclusive use of members. Members should be aware that investment markets have inherent risks and there can be no guarantee of future profits. Likewise, past performance does not assure future results. Recommendations are subject to change at any time. Nothing in this presentation should be considered personalized investment advice. No communication to you by Michael Murphy or any of our employees or contractors should be deemed as personalized investment advice.

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