Dear New World Investor:
Last Friday’s “strong” (well, higher than expected) nonfarm payrolls report, +263,000, set off a five-day losing streak in the S&P 500 that ended today. Investors are afraid that the Fed might keep the interest rate pressure higher for longer, thus causing a harder economic downturn in the coming months. As well they might, except….
There’s something really wrong with the payroll survey and the Fed knows it. The payrolls number you saw is calculated by the “establishment” survey of companies. The October survey only had a response rate of 49.4%, equaling a 32-year low (blue line). That means that half of the report was estimated and the result is vulnerable to a bigger-than-normal revision. The red line is the response rate a month later on the first revision.
This was a major shortfall:
Also, while the +263,000 was well above the +200,000 expected, the three-month moving average is around +270,000. From peak job creation in 2021, the trend clearly is down.
Not to get too deep into the weeds here, but temporary help services employees declined in November for the fourth straight month. That is an excellent leading indicator because temps are the first to go when the economy turns down. Four declines in a row hasn’t happened since 2009.
Adding to the questionable validity of this payroll report, the birth-death model of assumed new small business startups and other small businesses shutting down added 110,000 jobs in November. Sure thing. Net this out and adjust for the shrinking workweek, and the real nonfarm payrolls number was closer to minus 227,000.
Employment also is calculated by the “household” job survey of families. In the last two months alone, the Payroll Survey shows a gain of 547,000 jobs while the Household Survey shows a loss of 466,000. That’s a one million job disagreement. Most importantly, the Household Survey of families shows literally no jobs have been added in eight months while the Payroll Survey of establishments shows 2.7 million jobs added.


Wait, what? Zero jobs versus 2.7 million jobs added? The answer mostly lies in how the different surveys are run. The Household Survey counts a person holding three jobs as one employed person. The Establishment Survey counts that as three jobs being created. Over 700,000 Americans have had to get a second or third job in the last 12 months to make ends meet, and the Establishment Survey double-counts them.
On top of that, the Bureau of Labor Statistics keeps telling us that after the pandemic the net birth/death in the creation of new businesses is double what it was before.
Obviously, it’s not. It’s most likely due to a statistical adjustment the BLS talks about on their own website.
Conclusion: A much softer labor market awaits us, and it’s just a matter of when, not if. And I believe the Fed knows it.
The S&P 500 rose 8.0% in October and 5.4% in November. As my friend Keith Fitz-Gerald wrote: “Investors who don’t study history are at a huge disadvantage. They make poor decisions because they lack perspective. Persistent strength is more often a sign that there’s a new bull market brewing than a sign that there’s another bear market at hand.”
Market Outlook
The S&P 500 lost 2.8% since last Thursday after posting the longest stretch of down days (5) to begin a month since 2011. The Index is down 16.8% year-to-date. The Nasdaq Composite fell 3.5% and has done very little since mid-September. It is down 29.2% for the year. The small-cap Russell 2000 dropped 3.3% and is down 19.0% in 2022.
The fractal dimension marked another week of consolidation, which means even more stored-up energy for what promises to be a barn-burner of a move. I still think it’s up.
Looking ahead to the next three weeks, Nomura wrote: “Between the December FOMC meeting and the end of the year, trading tends to be thinner than at any other time, and with many fundamentals-oriented investors on holiday, Commodity Trading Advisors’ trades tend to have a larger market impact.” Goldman Sachs says the CTAs have been shorting heavily the last seven trading days, with a close above 2975.80 likely to set off a wave of short-covering. The CTAs are trend-followers, so a move in either direction can be quick and outsized. Time for the Santa Claus rally!
Top 5
Changes this week: None
Near-Term – chronological order
OIL iPath Pure Beta Crude Oil Exchange-Traded Note – crude should rise quickly
GBTC Grayscale Bitcoin Trust – Bitcoin is coming out of one of its periodic sharp drops
INO Inovio – VGX-3100 HPV Phase 3 results by yearend
TGTX TG Therapeutics – FDA approval on December 28
META Meta – Bounce from overdone selloff
VLD Velo3D – Rapid revenue growth; low market cap
Long-Term – alphabetical order
GRPH Graphite Bio – second-generation genetic editing
NVTA Invitae – the winner-take-most of genetic testing
META Meta – a leader in the metaverse
RKLB Rocket Lab – #2 to SpaceX in space
VLD Velo3D – Return manufacturing to the US
Economy
The Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow model forecast for this quarter’s real GDP growth increased to +3.4% due to better personal consumption expenditures growth and government spending growth. The Blue Chip economists are raising their forecasts, as I expected, although they only are up to +1.0%.
Dollar
Global trade growth affects the direction of the dollar. Korean exports (blue) indicate the year-over-year (YoY) performance of the dollar with a few quarters lead time. Weak global trade = organic dollar flow stops = exposed counterparties scramble for US dollars.
Coming Events
All times below are ET, and most presentations and slides are archived on the companies’ websites so you can listen to them.
Friday, December 9
Short Interest – After the close
Sunday, December 11
GILD – Gilead Sciences – Unspec. – 30(!) data presentation at the American Society of Hematology (ASH) annual meeting
APTO – Aptose Therapeutics – 10:00am – Clinical Update/Data Review from ASH
APTO – Aptose Therapeutics – 6:00pm – Three poster presentations at ASH
GRPH – Graphite Bio – 6:00pm – Poster presentation at ASH
Tuesday, December 13
Consumer Price Index – 8:30am – Expected headline: +7.7% YoY; +0.5% MoM. Expected core: +6.4% YoY; +0.6% MoM
CDE – Coeur Mining – 11:00am – Annual meeting
QUIK – QuickLogic – 2:05pm – Oppenheimer 5G Summit: The Revolution Continues
Wednesday, December 14
Fed Meeting – 2:00pm – +50 basis points expected
Thursday, December 15
CDE – Coeur Mining – 10:00am – Investor Day
The $20-For-$1 Stocks
Say you put $2,000 into a stock that goes from 50¢ a share to $10. The $2,000 turns into $40,000. Then you put the $40,000 into another stock that goes from 50¢ to $10. That turns the $40,000 into $800,000. You did it with two stocks, and never risked going negative more than $2,000. (Not that you won’t be mad at me if the first one works and then the second one doesn’t, taking your $40,000 to Money Heaven.)
If you can afford it – and it would not be too big a position in your portfolio – putting $2,000 into each of these 12 speculative biotechs might be a good way to start.
The market capitalizations of these recommendations are typically very low. At the same time, Initial Public Offering valuations had moved very high. We were seeing $750 million to $900 million valuations for a good preclinical/Phase 1 IPO, and even $300 million to $500 million for mediocre Phase 1s. I don’t see how investors make 5x to 10x in a reasonable, three- to four-year period if they buy at those valuations. How many biotechs have moved north of $10 billion within 5 years after pricing an IPO in the $700 million to $900 million range? Hardly any. Buying these out-of-favor, fallen, or forgotten companies that can get important products through the FDA at very low market capitalizations seems like a much better strategy to me.
Risks
Development-stage biotechs are subject to investor sentiment swings from wildly optimistic to excessively pessimistic – mostly the latter recently. After the Primary Risk for each company, I’ve added the clinical stage of their lead product, the probable time of their first FDA approval, and the probable time of their next financing.
As always, you need to think about an appropriate position size. You could buy a full position upfront and then just hold on, or buy some upfront and leave room to add more on the inevitable financings, transient clinical trial setbacks, and the like.
Algernon Pharmaceuticals (AGNPF – $2.00) got Orphan Drug Designation for ifenprodil for the treatment of idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis. Orphan Drug Designation qualifies them for various incentives, including tax credits for qualified clinical trials, an exemption from user fees, and seven years of market exclusivity after approval. AGNPF is a Hold for the Phase 2b IPF/chronic cough results.
Primary Risk: Ifenprodil fails in clinical trials.
Clinical stage of lead product: Phase 2/3
Probable time of first FDA approval: 2023
Probable time of next financing: 2022
Aptose Biosciences (APTO – $0.71) will host an Investor Day from the American Society of Hematology (ASH) annual meeting this Sunday, including a comprehensive review of the current clinical data for tuspetinib (formerly HM43239). APTO is a Buy under $2.50 for a $30 target in a buyout.
Primary Risk: Either drug fails in clinical trials.
Clinical stage of lead product: Phase 1a
Probable time of first FDA approval: 2025
Probable time of next financing: Mid- to late-2023
Arch Therapeutics (ARTH – $0.04) said the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services (CMS) has made a preliminary recommendation to establish a dedicated Healthcare Common Procedure Coding System (HCPCS) Level II billing code specific to AC5. The HCPCS code makes it easier for doctors to bill third-party payers for AC5 used in their offices. ARTH is a Hold for a buyout.
Primary Risk: AC5 fails to sell or the internal trial fails.
Clinical stage of lead product: External approved. Internal trial 2023
Probable time of first FDA approval: External done. Internal 2023
Probable time of next financing: June 2022 quarter
Compass Pathways (CMPS – $10.12) said 12 out of 14 bipolar patients went into remission for three months following a single 25-milligram dose of COMP360 psilocybin therapy, in an independent investigator-initiated, exploratory open-label study of Type II bipolar disorder. CMPS is a Buy under $20 for a very long-term hold to a 10x.
Primary Risk: Their drugs fail in the clinic.
Clinical stage of lead product: Phase 2
Probable time of first FDA approval: 2024
Probable time of next financing: Mid-2023
Biotech & Digital Dominators MegaShift
There are at least four ways to make money in the stocks of these large, growing, dominant companies. You can:
* * Buy a stock and hold it
* * Buy a stock and write a call option against it
* * With a Level IV options account, write an out-of-the-money put option
* * With a Level IV options account, write an out-of-the-money put option and use part of the premium to buy an out-of-the-money call option
Apple (AAPL – $142.65) fell after Morgan Stanley lowered its iPhone estimates for the second time in less than a month, citing a slower ramp in Foxconn’s Zhengzhou plant that has put them three to four weeks behind schedule for iPhone production as a result of the country’s COVID-19 lockdowns and worker unrest. MS now expect iPhone shipments of 75.5 million in the December quarter, down from their prior forecast of 78.5 million.
They kept their March quarter iPhone shipment estimate of 56.5 million unchanged, implying that none of the shortfalls in the current quarter would be moved to the next. But they added: “Given iPhone 14 Pro/Pro Max lead times remain elevated at 3+ weeks, 10-15 days ahead of the supply-constrained iPhone 12 Pro and 13 Pro/Pro Max at this point in the cycle, we believe demand for the iPhone 14 Pro/Pro Max remains solid, supporting the view that lost demand in December is more likely to be deferred into March than destroyed.”
The analyst said “it’s more likely” that most of the demand that did not grt filled in the December quarter is pushed out later in the fiscal year.
He wrote: “While we might be taking an overly conservative approach given our Greater China Hardware team … estimates just a 1-2M unit incremental shortfall from the slower iPhone production ramp, … we also believe more thoroughly de-risking estimates today is the prudent decision considering the uncertainty of the production situation in China.”
The analyst now expects December quarter revenues of $120.3 billion with earnings of $1.88 per share. He kept his overweight rating and $175 price target.
On Tuesday, investment firm UBS said it had seen evidence of improving wait times for the iPhone 14 Pro and iPhone 14 Pro Max in 30 countries, suggesting that the supply chain headwinds Apple has dealt with are starting to ease up. They noted that wait times in the US for both high-end iPhone 14 models are now down to roughly 25 days from 38 days two weeks ago. In China, wait times have declined to 36 days, down from 39 days last week and two weeks ago. They have a buy rating and a $180 target price.
I think Wall Street is likely to view the December and March quarters in aggregate relative to last year to gauge underlying demand. AAPL is a Buy under $150 for new iPhone rollouts and augmented/virtual reality products.
Corning (GLW – $33.32) gave a fireside chat today at the Barclays Global Technology, Media and Telecommunications Conference (TRANSCRIPT HERE). The CFO said their big priorities over the next couple of years are having enough capacity for the rapid growth in optical fiber, restarting Hemlock’s solar business, normalizing the supply chain, and getting costs back in line with pre-pandemic levels wherever they can, and continuing to raise price to offset costs where they can’t cut. GLW is a Buy under $33 for the 5G cellular buildout, followed by the smartphone upgrade to use 5G services. My target is $60 in 2023 .
Gilead Sciences (GILD – $89.47) gave a fireside chat at the Nasdaq Investor Conference in London (TRANSCRIPT HERE). The CEO said he joined four years ago to take a company that had extraordinary success in virology into new therapeutic areas, which is not an easy thing to do. He decided to use the immunology scientific base and expand that to oncology with a real focus on immuno-oncology and also to inflammation. Gilead has put around $30 billion of capital to work over the past 2 1/2 years to build this portfolio that has gone from 30 molecules in development to 60 molecules. They want to have 30% or more of revenues in oncology by 2030 on top of a growing HIV virology base.
They’ve had really good quarters every quarter this year, and he said that’s going to continue in 2023. They have several PDUFA dates coming up. Gilead is a great Biotech Dominator and you get paid a 3.3% yield while you wait for Wall Street to catch on. GILD is a Long-Term Buy under $70 for a first target of $100.
Inflation MegaShift
Gold ($1,800.70) is unchanged for the week as $1,800 seems to be an attractor/repeller level as investors try to balance the Fed, inflation, the dollar, the economy, and however Putin wants to price his oil. The fractal dimension is hinting that a new uptrend is starting, but it has to drop a L-O-N-G way through 55 to confirm it. By then, gold will be near its all-time high with plenty of energy left to print new records.
Miners & Related
First Majestic (AG – $9.13) sold its past-producing La Parrilla Silver Mine in Durango, Mexico to Golden Tag Resources (GTAGF) for up to $33.5 million, mostly in stock. First Majestic will get 143.7 million Golden Tag shares worth $20.0 million upfront, approximately 40% of the outstanding shares in Golden Tag. Then they will receive up to $13.5 million in three milestone payments in either cash or Golden Tag shares.
This was a non-producing mine and it will be some time before we know if Golden Tag can make it valuable, but there’s no downside. AG is a Buy under $11 for a $23 next target price as production increases and the price of silver rises.
Primary Risk: Prices of precious metals fall due to US dollar strength.
Paramount Gold Nevada (PZG – $0.37) got the permit from the Forest Service to drill the Bald Peak Project in Mineral County, Nevada. Bald Peak is a 4-mile-long prospective area with significant gold mineralization identified in surface samples, promising geophysical targets, and excellent geology within the Aurora-Borealis mining district. These two mines have produced more than two million ounces of gold for their owner, Hecla Mining. Hecla plans to conduct exploration drilling at their Aurora site to replenish resources after having consolidated their land position, and the nearby, open pit Borealis Mine is currently in production with a heap leach recovery operation.
PZG is a Buy under $1 for a $10 target as gold moves higher.
Primary Risk: Prices of precious metals fall due to US dollar strength.
Probable time of next financing: Second half of 2022
Cryptocurrencies
Cryptocurrencies are a diversifying asset that offer a unique opportunity to make (or lose!) a lot of money quickly. You can easily buy Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies at Coinbase, Block, or Robinhood.
Bitcoin (BTC-USD on Yahoo – $17,235.87) has stabilized after the FTX debacle/fraud. Almost 960,000 addresses hold one bitcoin or more, and people are still saying that bitcoin is dead. I don’t think there’s much downside from here – that’s behind us – and I expect a strong run into 2023.
BTC-USD, ETH-USD, GBTC, and, ETHE are Strong Buys. But the smartest way to buy bitcoin is the Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC- $8.19), now at a 48% discount from net asset value. I understand why the Wall Street/media fear-mongering campaign to scare you about GBTC is hard to resist. They are really good at it.
But as I wrote on the Comments board, in order for GBTC’s bitcoin to be missing or at risk, every one of these folks would have to be in on the scam:
1. The signers of the SEC filings would have to not care that they certainly would go to jail.
Pursuant to the requirements of Section 13 or 15(d) of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, the registrant has duly caused this report to be signed on its behalf by the undersigned in the capacities indicated, thereunto duly authorized.
Grayscale Investments, LLC as Sponsor of Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (BTC)
By: /s/ Michael Sonnenshein Member of the Board of Directors and Chief Executive Officer
By: /s/ Edward McGee Chief Financial Officer, Principal Financial Officer, and Principal Accounting Officer
Date: November 4, 2022
2. Friedman LLP, the auditor of the 10-K, would have to be in on the fraud with partners ready to go to jail. In September, Marcum LLP acquired Friedman and would at least have had to miss the fraud in its due diligence.
3. The custodian, Coinbase Custody Services, would have to be willing to risk its entire business, lose its licenses, and (again) have several officers ready to go to jail.
“The Trust’s Digital Asset Account is a segregated custody account controlled and secured by the Custodian to store private keys, which allow for the transfer of ownership or control of the Trust’s Bitcoin, on the Trust’s behalf. Private key shards associated with the Trust’s Bitcoin are distributed geographically by the Custodian in secure vaults around the world, including in the United States. The locations of the secure vaults may change regularly and are kept confidential by the Custodian for security purposes. The Custodian requires written approval of the Trust prior to changing the location of the private key shards, and therefore the Trust’s Bitcoin, including to a different state. The Digital Asset Account uses offline storage, or cold storage, mechanisms to secure the Trust’s private keys. The term cold storage refers to a safeguarding method by which the private keys corresponding to digital assets are disconnected and/or deleted entirely from the internet.
“Bitcoin in the Digital Asset Account are not treated as general assets of the Custodian. Rather,the Custodian serves as a fiduciary and custodian on the Trust’s behalf, and the Bitcoin in the Digital Asset Account are considered fiduciary assets that remain the Trust’s property at all times.”
4. Oh, also – GBTC’s bitcoin is insured by an outside company.
Now, if you think all those companies and corporate officers are in on a massive fraud, you certainly should stay away from GBTC.
But if you think this is just Wall Street BS designed to separate the rubes from their money by buying GBTC in the open market and then pushing for redemptions at face value, buy GBTC.
And there might also be a shift to favor the view that regulating crypto is the best way to protect customers from things such as the debacle at FTX, and that vehicles such as Exchange-Traded Funds are safer alternatives, so the SEC should approve GBTC’s application to become an ETF post-haste. GBTC is a Buy under net asset value.
Primary Risk:Bitcoin falls due to over-regulation or is surpassed by another cryptocurrency.
Oil – $71.66
Oil prices ended lower despite government data showing domestic supplies of crude oil fell by 5.2 million barrels last week, down a fourth week in a row. Inventories at the Cushing, Oklahoma, delivery hub declined by 400,000 barrels for the week, while the Strategic Petroleum Reserve fell by 2.1 million barrels.
China is ignoring the price cap and buying Russian crude at a hefty discount. Their
crude oil imports in November rose 12% from a year earlier to the highest level in 10 months – so much for the Zero-COVID policy.
While demand for physical oil is holding up, the supply of paper oil is pushing the price down. According to The Wall Street Journal, trend-following traders (those Commodity Trading Advisors again) are shorting WTI crude oil futures to an extent they haven’t since October 2020, more than two years ago, according to a report from TD Securities that estimates their positions.
About 30% of trading volumes in commodities markets come from traders using computer algorithms to identify price trends, according to Daniel Ghali, a commodity strategist at TD Securities. Such traders have gone decisively short in recent days. It’s become a crowded trade, and that means it’s time to be a contrarian. Got OIL?
The July 2026 Crude Oil Futures (CLN26.NYM – $53.16) are a Buy under $55 for a $200+ target.
The iPath Pure Beta Crude Oil Exchange-Traded Note (OIL – $27.07) is a Buy under $36 for an $80+ target.
* * * * *
I should write a book titled Keep Calm and Wait. Every page would just be this chart:
* * * * *
Your trying ChatGPT Editor, (tell your kids!)
Michael Murphy CFA
Founding Editor
New World Investor
All Recommendations
Check out the complete Portfolio page HERE.
Buys
These are the stocks everyone needs to own because transformative events are happening over the next year or two, and I expect to hold them long-term.
$20-for-$1
Aptose Biosciences (APTO – $0.71) – Buy under $2.50, ultimate target $30
Bellerophon Therapeutics (BLPH – $0.93) – Buy under $5, first target $30, then $100
Compass Pathways (CMPS – $10.12) – Buy under $20, hold a long time for a 10x return
Graphite Bio (GRPH – $3.39) – Buy under $9, hold a long time
Inovio (INO – $1.84) – Buy under $7, hold a long time
Invitae (NVTA – $2.47) – Buy under $10, first target $50, then $100+
Medicenna (MDNA – $0.50) – Buy under $3, first target $20, then maybe $40
ScyNexis (SCYX – $1.89) – Buy under $3, target price $20, then $50
Other Biotech
TG Therapeutics (TGTX – $8.20) – Buy under $7, target price $25+
Tech Dominators
Apple Computer (AAPL – $142.65) – Buy under $150 for new iPhones
Corning (GLW – $33.32) – Buy under $33, target price $60
Gilead Sciences (GILD – $89.47) – Buy under $70, target price $100
Meta (META – $115.33) – Buy under $250, target price $400
SoftBank (SFTBY – $22.42) – Buy under $25, target price $50
Other Tech
First Trust NASDAQ Cybersecurity ETF (CIBR – $40.37 – Buy under $40; 3- to 5-year hold
Fastly (FSLY – $9.95) – Buy under $20; 2- to 5-year hold to $80+
PagerDuty (PD – $24.01) – Buy under $30; 2- to 5-year hold
QuickLogic (QUIK – $5.78) – Buy under $10, target price $40
Rocket Lab (RKLB – $3.98) – Buy under $13, target price $30+
Velo3D (VLD – $1.96) – Buy under $6, target price $50
Inflation
A Short-Sale or REO House – ($447,000) – Buy while fixed mortgage rates are low
Bag of Junk Silver – ($23.27) – hold through silver bull market
Sprott Gold Miners ETF (SGDM – $25.06) – Buy under $28, target price $50
Sprott Junior Gold Miners ETF (SGDJ – $29.95) – Buy under $39, target price $100
Sprott Physical Gold and Silver Trust (CEF – $17.57) – Buy under $18, target price $30
Global X Silver Miners ETF (SIL – $28.95) – Buy under $30, target price $50
Coeur Mining (CDE – $3.40) – Buy under $5, target price $20
First Majestic Mining (AG – $9.13) – Buy under $11, next target price $23
Paramount Gold Nevada (PZG – $0.37) – Buy under $1, first target price $10
Sandstorm Gold (SAND – $5.31) – Buy under $10, target price $25
Sprott Inc. (SII – $34.53) – Buy under $40, target price $70
Cryptocurrencies
Bitcoin (BTC-USD – $17,235.87) – Buy
Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC – $8.19) – Buy
Ethereum (ETH-USD – $1,277.048) – Buy
Grayscale Ethereum Trust (ETHE – $6.46) – Buy
International & Other Recommendations
EMQQ Emerging Markets Internet & Ecommerce ETF (EMQQ – $30.94) – Buy under $38 for a $66 target in 12 to 18 months
KraneShares Bosera MSCI China A Share Fund (KBA – $32.64) – Buy under $40 for a three- to five-year hold
Morgan Stanley China A-Shares Fund (CAF – $14.17) – Buy under $18 for a three- to five-year hold
KraneShares CSI China Internet ETF (KWEB – $31.47) – Buy under $40 for a double over the next three years
Acreage Holdings (ACRDF – $1.35) – Buy under $2 for the Canopy Growth merger
Mongolia Growth Group (MNGGF – $1.10) – Buy under $1.30; long-term hold
Energy
Crude Oil Futures – July 2026 (CLN26.NYM – $53.16) – Buy under $55; $200+ target
iPath Pure Beta Crude Oil Exchange-Traded Note (OIL – $27.07) – Buy under $36; $80+ target
Energy Fuels (UUUU – $6.08) – Buy under $8; $30 target
Holds
These are holds but not sells – yet. They could get moved back to one of the buy categories if their prices drop or outlook improves, or they could become sell recommendations in the future.
Algernon Pharmaceuticals (AGNPF – $2.00) – Hold for IPF/chronic cough trial
Akebia Biotherapeutics (AKBA – $0.30) – Hold for FDA meeting
Arch Therapeutics (ARTH – $0.04) – Hold for buyout
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#1!!!
SILVER
3rd?
The cap on oil is just stupid. Of course China is going to ignore the Russian oil cap. And so are many other countries. All Russia has to do is ship crude to India , (in unmarked tankers) have them refine it and sell it on the open market. (Which they are already doing!!) Who even knows or cares where it came from. It’s like driving to a gas station and telling the station attendant you won’t buy their gas unless it’s $1.50 a gallon as he waves and tells you to get the hell out of here. Also what’s going on at INO and the legal paperwork I received in the mail? Buy the gold rush coming. IMO
What did the paperwork say?
Forget OIL, buy the leader in solar. ENPH. It’s an incredible company just killing their projections.
Wow! I don’t know if it’s a BUY now, but on
1/1/17 it was $1.02
1/1/18 it was $2.39
1/1/19 it was $4.63
1/1/20 it was $26.37
1/1/21 it was $178
1/1/22 it was $185 and now over $300
$1 to $300 in just 6 years. Definitely something to keep in mind for the next market crash.
Well, I would call 2022 a market correction/crash yet ENPH has killed it this year. Very profitable and keeps beating quarterly numbers bigly. Seems the Ukraine war has Europe scrambling to solar.
I’ll keep DCAing into this name, hopefully at lower prices 🙂
One day the Ukraine war will be over, and so will the scramble for solar. Then ENPH will crash, even if earnings are still OK.
LOL. I don’t think you understand how popular/needed solar has become. Ukraine is only a small catalyst.
Maybe MM can revisit the economics of solar. In the past, solar required govt subsidies for consumers. If you need a new roof, the solar panels have to be dismantled and put back again.
Sure and you get some leaking on occasion. There are always objections to new tech.
Not sure if MM’s opinion has much merit. Compare his OIL recommendation to my ENPH over the past few years.
MM is far from a new world investor.
Oh and BTW, take a look at MRNA compared to INO.
You ain’t getting rich with his picks.
MM – what is the status of the supposed Greystone lawsuit towards the FTC for preventing approval of a spot BTC ETF?
They filed the suit last summer. There’s been no news since then – I assume it’s in discovery. If the SEC would let GBTC convert to an ETF, all the shareholders would benefit immediately. Isn’t that something the SEC cares about?
I think the Household survey is closer to the truth about the number of jobs, rather than the Establishment survey. Relatively few people have more than one job. For those that do, figure the main job is 40 hours/week, and the 2nd job is 20 hours. It’s hard to work over 60 hours, with additional wasted and energy draining time commuting to the 2nd job. Then there is the fatigue factor, with less productivity and more errors made on the 2nd job. Total hours worked would be a better indicator, but for now the Household survey is more realistic by counting the number of people working as more equivalent to number of jobs, or total labor output.
Bought more GBTC
Bad move. GBTC is a terrible way to own BTC. You note that Greyscale keeps its BTC in a Coinbase custodial account but if Coinbase fails, which is a strong possibility considering they have the same business model as FTX and BlockFi, ALL holdings will be frozen. Including Greyscale. The market sees this huge risk which explains the massive discount. Once again today, GBTC was down 2% while BTC was down .5%.
The ONLY way one should hold BTC is using your own personal cold wallet. I’ve pulled all assets out of Coinbase.
I urge your readers to do their due diligence. Exchanges will fail but BTC will survive. Don’t ride this flawed instrument to pennies or worse.
Your claim that GBTC is insured. Can you explain how an investor could recoup their money if the ETF failed?
FTX and BlockFi BTC holders were screwed, why would this be any different?
What is your rec to find a location for a personal cold wallet that is secure? hard in this world of tech to know what is safe.Tku!
Appreciate your time and info.
I use the Ledger Nano S. It’s a tiny bit tedious to set up but there are tons of YouTube videos on how to do it. Once it’s set up there is a nice application you run to send and receive your BTC. Plus it’s SAFE!! Nobody can hack you because you’re offline.
Thank you. Reading about it now. When you say “a tiny bit tedious”, you make me nervous (as in tech can be very frustrating). On a scale of 1-10, 10 being very difficult, how difficult?
Thanks again
I’d say about a 6. The worst is you have to repeat the 24 word recovery phase on the small device. It probably took me 10-15 minutes to set it up but I’m pretty tech savvy. Are you on Mac or Windows?
Windows
Simple downloadable Windows application is available from Ledger. Once you have your cold storage you simply connect to your Windows box with a USB connection.
Look up connecting Ledger to my Windows pc on YouTube. It will make you way more comfortable setting it up.
I’ve been playing around with the Ledger application and you can easily buy/sell/send/receive your BTC using the easy to understand interface.
Thank you! I’m on my way. I’ll keep you posted.
Correction. I know it’s not an ETF but my objection remains.
Coinbase Custody Services, Inc. is NOT an exchange and does NOT have GBTC’s bitcoin on their balance sheet. That bitcoin is owned by GBTC and cannot be sold, lent, or hypothecated by Coinbase, Inc. or Coinbase Custody Services, Inc.
I urge you to read at least page 33 of the 10-K:
“Insurance
Pursuant to the terms of the Custodian Agreement, the Custodian is required to have insurance coverage to protect against risks such as theft of funds. The Custodian has advised the Sponsor that it has insurance coverage pursuant to policies held by Coinbase Global, Inc. (“Coinbase”), which procures fidelity (or crime) insurance coverage of up to $320 million. This insurance coverage is limited to losses of the digital assets the Custodian custodies on behalf of its clients, including the Trust’s Bitcoin, resulting from theft, including internal theft by employees of Coinbase and its subsidiaries and theft or fraud by a director of Coinbase if the director is acting in the capacity of an employee of Coinbase or its subsidiaries.”
CCS is owned by Coinbase correct? If for some reason Coinbase was to go the way of FTX what would happen to CCS?
The insurance you mentioned won’t do a thing if the parent company goes under. This probably won’t happen but it is a factor and probably explains the huge discount.
I feel way more comfortable owning the keys, not letting another entity own them. Remember, not your keys, not your coins.
Fair enough.
Buy bitcoin @ $!7,191 because “not your keys, not your coins”
or
Buy bitcoin @ $8,939 via GBTC because Coinbase Custody Services is tightly regulated and you’ll make 75% overnight when GBTC converts to an ETF.
Both valid choices.
One is a guarantee and the other is a dream. Both are not valid choices.
There is a reason for that huge discount. Wall street isn’t stupid.
You are rather rigid. I’ve seen you ride stocks to pennies.
I hope you’re right this time.
They have “insurance coverage up to $320 million.” That’s only about $.50 per share.
MM – as Michael asks, are funds with Greystone insured?
To Michael,
All good points. The Market ain’t stupid and that huge discount MAY not be an opportunity but rather an early death warning.
Another, perhaps better, way to gain exposure to BTC could be MSTR.
MSTR is a money losing business. I’m DCA into BTC on my private wallet, I still thing BTC is a real thing as its transaction fees are a fraction of Visa and Mastercard and when the FED pivots in 2023 BTC will explode again.
We might have a real BTC buying opportunity when the next exchange collapses. Maybe Coinbase?
The problem is the announced “USA electric money” which will eliminate everything else in the established form of “Money”.
This also includes large penalties which prevents entities to issue funds to transfer “values” to owners and holders
Sort of like DC learned from China.
JP MORGAN SAYS THE S&P 500 CAN RALLY OVER 10% TOMORROW IF Y/Y CPI COMES IN AT 6.9% OR UNDER
Cool maybe some of our holdings like nvta ..etc might go up a few cents,we need something that’s for sure
And if the cpi comes in above 6.9,I’m assuming the S&P will go down,is that a good assumption
10.39 nvta now in the red,what a piece of
What is going on with NVTA ????? We get rid of the spend spend spend CEO, get back the original CEO and all we do is sink. What gives? What are we missing?
But not the NWI small biotech losers.
7.1 seems to be good enough.
MM, what is going on with our latest NWI dog NVTA ?
You do have to wonder Frank,I question if mm shorts some of the issues he recommends to us from 50 dollars to 2 he always stated this stock was the one a no brainer,to short once the nwi newsletter members ran it up,so pathetic
No, I think MM eats his own cooking, not shorting his buys for us. But I have shown many examples where he doesn’t understand the medical science. Very few analysts and doctors appreciate the risks and what will actually work in clinical trials. Even worse is predicting what will actually succeed in the marketplace. He is way too optimistic. TGTX is running up in anticipation of approval Dec 28. Their treatment for MS is a one dimensional approach that will make a difference, but won’t be a panacea. Sell on approval at whatever the price spikes to. Successful commercialization is a pipe dream for most of these bios.
I reckon somebody has it out for him and everything he recommends as it seems that three quarters or more of his picks have dropped 50 percent ir more this year,planning on selling tgtx upon approval also
Nobody “has it out for him” although short sellers could be active. They merely make an assessment that for most NWI picks he is overly optimistic, and they short down to what they feel is fair value.
Michael, Looks like the market wasn’t too impressed with APTO’s update on their programs Sunday and I’m sure you’ll be covering that in this week’s report. Can u give us a sneak peak on this dog? Or is it time to book this loss and re-buy in January?
Santa Claus Rally?
Haah! Lump of coal for everybody
Retail sales declined in Nov after a big increase in Oct. We are headed for stagflation. That’s what you get from prior aggressive money printing from the Fed, and stupid economic policies by this govt. Throw in stupid wars from Russia and other international threats.
funny insults from the wise and famous:
The new Radar Report for 12.15.22 is posted.