Dear New World Investor:

Traders have fully priced in another quarter-point (25 basis points) interest-rate increase by the Fed within the next two policy meetings and a more than 1-in-2 chance that hike could arrive as soon as the June 14 meeting. Near-term yields have moved higher for 10 straight trading sessions fueled by increased optimism about a potential debt-ceiling deal and resilient economic data that could pave the way for additional Fed tightening.

I think they’re wrong.

The recent Federal Open Market Committee minutes said: “Several participants noted that if the economy evolved along the lines of their current outlooks, then further policy firming after this meeting may not be necessary. Some thought additional policy firming would likely be warranted.” GDP was projected to decelerate over the next two quarters before declining modestly in both the fourth quarter of this year and the first quarter of next year – a recession.

Then in last Friday’s speech, Chairman Powell said future decisions on interest rate moves will be made on a “meeting by meeting” basis and interest rates may not need to rise as high as previously expected with the bank crisis tightening credit conditions, even with inflation well above the Fed’s 2% target. He said: “We’ve come a long way in policy tightening and the stance of policy is restrictive. We’ll be monitoring as we assess the extent to which additional policy firming may be appropriate to return inflation to 2% over time. That assessment will be an ongoing one. As we move ahead meeting by meeting having come this far, we can afford to look at the data and the evolving outlook and make careful assessments.”

Powell said interest rates are now “restrictive” and banking sector developments “are contributing to tighter credit conditions and are likely to weigh on economic growth, hiring, and inflation. So as a result, our policy rate may not need to rise as much as it would have otherwise to achieve our goals. Of course, the extent of that is highly uncertain.”

He knows that as soon as a debt limit deal is done, the Treasury will scramble to replenish its dwindling cash buffer to maintain its ability to pay its obligations. There will be a deluge of Treasury-bill sales, estimated at well over $1 trillion by the end of the third quarter. Treasury just filed an intention to sell $64 billion in net issuance on June 1. The supply burst will quickly drain liquidity from the banking sector, raise short-term funding rates, and tighten the screws on the US economy just as it’s on the cusp of recession. BofA estimates it would have the same economic impact as a quarter-point interest-rate hike.

A recent Gallup poll found that after peaking at 58%, those with a “great deal” or “fair amount” of trust in the Fed Chair have tumbled to 36%, the lowest number in 20 years.

Click for larger graphic h/t Visual Capitalist

Market Outlook

In spite of today’s rally, the S&P 500 lost 1.1% since last Thursday due to the scripted debt limit drama, which is about to end in a dramatic save by our wonderful Congress. The Index is up 8.1% year-to-date. A strong first 100 days for the S&P 500 Index almost always leads to significant upside for the rest of the year. Gains of 8% or more during that initial period lead to average annual advances of 25%, according to data going back to 1950. What’s more, only three times over the past 70 years has the index ended the year with gains less than those during the earlier part of the year.

Click for larger graphic

The Nasdaq Composite eked out a 0.1% gain thanks to Nvidia and is up 21.3% for the year. The small-cap Russell 2000 dropped 1.1% and is negative for the year again, down 0.4% in 2023.

This is how different assets performed into the debt ceiling drama of 2011:

Click for larger graphic h/t @MacroAlf

The fractal dimension has stalled between 55 and 60. I still expect it to break below 55 and signal a new uptrend, but it could take until the Fed actually pauses.

In the Golden Age to 2036, Goldman Sachs says Artificial Intelligence technology could boost S&P 500 profits by 30% or more over the next decade. “The real source of optimism now is productivity enhancements through artificial intelligence. Over the next 10 years, AI could increase productivity by 1.5% per year. And that could increase S&P 500 profits by 30% or more over the next decade.”

Billionaire investor Paul Tudor Jones recently agreed that the introduction of large language AI tools like ChatGPT could unleash a “productivity boom” in the economy that helps drive inflation lower and the stock market higher for years to come.

And the great Ed Yardeni just wrote that generative artificial intelligence, through the use of chatbots like ChatGPT, could spark a surge in productivity and improve standards of living throughout the economy. If that happens, it could mean a lot of the worries on investors’ minds, like a recession, a banking crisis, and potential debt ceiling disaster, could melt away.

He said: “This may be the event that launches the Roaring 2020s. If so, then we can spend a lot less time obsessing about what the Fed will do next and focus on how technology is boosting productivity and the standard of living throughout the economy.”

Top 5

Changes this week: None

Near-Term – chronological order
EQT EQT –natural gas price rebound
OIL iPath Pure Beta Crude Oil Exchange-Traded Note – crude should rise quickly
BLPH Phase 3 results mid-2023
VLD Velo3D – Rapid revenue growth; low market cap

Long-Term – alphabetical order
EQT EQT – largest US natural gas company
NVTA Invitae – the winner-take-most of genetic testing
META Meta – a (the?) leader in the metaverse
RKLB Rocket Lab – #2 to SpaceX in space
VLD Velo3D – Return manufacturing to the US
GBTC Grayscale Bitcoin Trust – Bitcoin is headed for $100,000

Economy

March quarter real GDP growth was revised up from +1.1% to +1.3%.

Coming Events
All times below are ET, and most presentations and slides are archived on the companies’ websites so you can listen to them.

Friday, May 26
April Consumer Personal Consumption Index – 8:30am – Expected headline: +4.3% year-over-year and +0.3% month-over-month. Core: +4.6% YoY and +0.3% MoM. Core services excluding housing, now the Fed’s favorite inflation indicator: +0.2% MoM, down from +0.24% in March, 0.36% in February, and 0.55% in January.

Monday, May 29
Markets closed – Memorial Day

via GIPHY

Wednesday, May 31
QUIK – QuickLogic – 1on1s – Craig-Hallum Institutional Investor Conference
META – Meta Platforms – 1:00pm – Annual meeting
GLW – Corning – 3:30pm – Bernstein Strategic Decisions Conference

Friday, June 2
GILD – Gilead Sciences – Through 6/5 – 30 presentations at American Society of Clinical Oncology (ASCO)
May payrolls – 8:30am – +180.000 expected; April was +253,000
CMPS – Compass Pathways – 8:30am – Annual meeting

Big Tech: The Biotech & Digital Dominators MegaShift
There are at least four ways to make money in the stocks of these large, growing, dominant companies. You can:
* * Buy a stock and hold it
* * Buy a stock and write a call option against it
* * With a Level IV options account, write an out-of-the-money put option
* * With a Level IV options account, write an out-of-the-money put option and use part of the premium to buy an out-of-the-money call option

Apple (AAPL – $172.99) closed today with a $2.72 trillion market capitalization. It probably will be the first company ever to have a $3 trillion valuation. I never thought I’d see a company of this size, but then I never thought I’d see a company capable of generating more than $100 billion in free cash flow every year. With augmented/virtual reality, the metaverse, AI, and maybe self-driving cars ahead of them, we have to own it.

But Loop Capital analyst Ananda Baruah lowered his rating on Apple stock to hold from buy but kept his price target at $180. He wrote: “We’ve now seen Apple reduce its builds (and we believe shipment forecasts) for essentially the second time in the last 4 weeks.” He added that this presents downside risk to Apple’s guidance and Wall Street estimates for the June quarter.

When I was the software analyst for a brokerage firm, I learned what this is. The sales force grabs it to write tickets, everyone gets paid, and sometime in the future he turns positive again whether the stock is up or down so another round of tickets gets written. Rinse and repeat.

Apple’s annual Worldwide Developers Conference is the week of June 5, with a 1:00pm keynote including “a first look at exciting updates coming to Apple platforms later this year.” AAPL is a Buy under $150 for new iPhone rollouts and augmented/virtual reality products.

Corning‘s (GLW – $31.04) CFO presented at the JPMorgan Global Technology, Media and Communications Conference (TRANSCRIPT HERE). He said Corning targets a 20% return on invested capital. They “land and expand” in some markets, like autos. Today they get about $30 to $40 per car. They’ll add interior glass, a $30 per car opportunity, and then exterior glass, another $30. They already have over $1 billion in auto glass orders to be delivered over several years.

Regarding Augmented Reality, he said: “The way to think about AR is, there’s probably no device today that’s really at scale from a cost or design perspective. So, it means it’s a ways out in time, before it’s something. I don’t know how many units eventually get sold, but I think the content per unit could be significantly greater than a smartphone for Corning.

“So, you don’t necessarily need the same number of units to see a relatively large market size. So, if you believe AR is successful, I think it’s certainly a total addressable market that could be significant for us.”

Last Tuesday, the company announced a 20% increase to its display glass substrate prices beginning in the third quarter of 2023. GLW is a Buy under $33 for the 5G cellular buildout, followed by the smartphone upgrade to use 5G services. My target is $60 in 2024 .

Gilead Sciences (GILD – $77.65) and their Kite subsidiary will present a whopping 30 abstracts at ASCO (American Society of Clinical Oncology) meeting starting Friday. People think Gilead is an HIV company and don’t realize how quickly they’re becoming an oncology powerhouse. GILD is a Long-Term Buy under $80 for a first target of $120.

Meta Platforms (META – $252.69) is going to be one of the major winners in AI, and that isn’t in the stock yet. META is a Buy under $150 for a $400 target in 2024.

SoftBank (SFTBY – $18.24) was downgraded by S&P Global Ratings further into junk territory, from BB+ to BB, drawing a stinging rebuke from the company. S&P said that SoftBank’s credit risks are rising because it’s selling off public assets such as Alibaba and increasing its exposure to private startups with more volatile valuations as a result. SoftBank criticized the decision, said the credit-rating agency had failed to accurately analyze its circumstances, and pointed out that selling off assets like Alibaba in exchange for cash is clearly better for its balance sheet stability.

The company concluded: “Over the past year, our strict defensive financial management has strengthened our financial position as never before. It is extremely regrettable that our financial soundness was not properly assessed, and we will continue our dialogue with S&P.”

SFTBY is a Buy under $25 for a first target of $50 in the next two years.

Small Tech

Enovix (ENVX – $12.30) did a fireside presentation at the JPMorgan Global Technology, Media and Communications Conference (TRANSCRIPT HERE). Management said their biggest selling point is double the energy density in the exact same configuration as existing lithium-ion batteries. Batteries traditionally have grown their density 4% to 5% a year over the last couple of decades. A technology that can double density is phenomenal.

They said when they visit customers pretty much all the time the competition is the existing graphite anode suppliers. There is no real volume from silicon anode batteries in the consumer electronics business. They are seeing a few battery makers add a little bit of silicon into the graphite to improve energy density by 5% to 8%, but Enovix is 100% active silicon with no graphite at all.

They said the EV market is obviously large and interested in the increased energy density, but they are even more interested in reducing the heat generated when they charge the battery. Enovix’s architecture allows batteries to be charged very rapidly. They’ve been doing thermal modeling for the EV makers, who actually use different materials from standard lithium-ion batteries. They are working now to produce proof of concept cells using EV battery materials and they expect to have a joint development agreement with one of the EV makers this year.

They have a couple of wearables customers that they expect to be in the market this year with products consumers can buy. They have sampled to over 100 customers. The next milestone comes in August with factory acceptance of the Gen2 machines working and testing on site.

JPMorgan published a “takeaways” after the presentation:

Click for larger graphic

Enovix has a superior battery for EVs. It stays cool, gets an 80% charge in just over five minutes, and has a long life. The company will enter this market with joint ventures and licensing, which could include installing production lines at partner sites, Morgan Stanley projects a $523 billion market by 2040.

Click for larger graphic

Historically, new battery technologies fail. The shorts are betting this will repeat with Enovix. The company currently has around 20% of its entire float shorted, a number that has been growing rapidly. Like their Tesla and Nvidia shorts, I think they are really wrong.

Click for larger graphic

ENVX is a Buy up to $13 for a 4-year hold to $100+ as their BrakeFlow lithium-ion battery takes market share.
Primary Risk: A new competitor invents a better battery.

Rocket Lab USA (RKLB – $4.59) will launch the second set of TROPICS satellites for NASA tonight. It will be their fifth launch this year.

They were the successful bidder at $16.1 million for some of bankrupt Virgin Orbit’s Long Beach assets that includes the lease to one of its Long Beach facilities and critical manufacturing infrastructure to accelerate the production of Rocket Lab’s Neutron rocket. This will reduce their planned capital expenditures. RKLB is a Buy up to $13 for my $30+ target as low earth orbit satellites and space exploration grow.
Primary Risk: A new competitor emerges.

Velo3D (VLD – $1.66) promoted their Vice President of Engineering, where he oversaw the company’s hardware and software products, to Chief Technology Officer. He will also oversee the technology team, which is responsible for process development of new alloys and techniques, as well as advanced technology development. VLD is a Buy up to $6 for my $50 target as Velo3D’s high-tolerance metal parts printing business grows.
Primary Risk:A new 3D metal printing competitor emerges.

Biotech MegaShift: The $20-For-$1 Stocks

Say you put $2,000 into a stock that goes from 50¢ a share to $10. The $2,000 turns into $40,000. Then you put the $40,000 into another stock that goes from 50¢ to $10. That turns the $40,000 into $800,000. You did it with two stocks and never risked going negative more than $2,000. (Not that you won’t be mad at me if the first one works and then the second one doesn’t, taking your $40,000 to Money Heaven.)

If you can afford it – and it would not be too big a position in your portfolio – putting $2,000 into each of these speculative biotechs might be a good way to start. Buying these out-of-favor, fallen, or forgotten companies that can get important products through the FDA at very low market capitalizations seems like a good strategy to me.

Risks

Development-stage biotechs are subject to investor sentiment swings from wildly optimistic to excessively pessimistic – mostly the latter recently. After the Primary Risk for each company, I’ve added the clinical stage of their lead product, the probable time of their first FDA approval, and the probable time of their next financing.

As always, you need to think about an appropriate position size. You could buy a full position upfront and then just hold on, or buy some upfront and leave room to add more on the inevitable financings, transient clinical trial setbacks, and the like.

Akebia Therapeutics (AKBA- $1.21) licensed Medice Arzneimittel Pütter to sell Vafseo for the treatment of anemia associated with CKD in Europe, Switzerland, Australia, and the UK (where it was just approved this week). Medice has extensive expertise in nephrology and an established European dialysis business. They will launch this year.

Akebia gets a $10 million upfront payment, up to $100 million in commercial milestone payments, and tiered royalties from 10% to 30% of net sales in dialysis. Akebia keeps 70% of the net profits in the non-dialysis indication if approved by EMA and retains rights to all other indications.

And – surprise! – the stock traded over $1.00 for 10 days straight, so they regained compliance with Nasdaq with no reverse split needed. AKBA is a Hold for the results of the FDA appeal on vadadustat.
Primary Risk: Vadadustat not approved.
   Clinical stage of lead product: Vadadustat NDA filed; CRL
   Probable time of next FDA approval: Unknown
   Probable time of next financing: Unknown

Aptose Biosciences (APTO – $0.41), on the other hand, got shareholder approval for a reverse split and will do a 1-for-15 shortly. When will they ever learn? APTO is a Buy under $2.50 for a $30 target in a buyout.
Primary Risk: Either drug fails in clinical trials.
   Clinical stage of lead product: Phase 2
   Probable time of first FDA approval: 2025
   Probable time of next financing: Mid- to late-2023

Arch Therapeutics (ARTH – $2.79) filed their March quarter 10-Q and they had only $16,654 in AC5 sales. There were tens of thousands of foot amputations in the quarter, but apparently neither surgeons nor patients have much interest in preventing them. Arch only had $29,495 in cash at the end of the quarter and Norchi’s gamble that the reverse split would keep the stock over the $4 level required to uplist to Nasdaq has failed. He’ll sell it soon. ARTH is a Hold for a buyout.
Primary Risk: AC5 fails to sell or the internal trial fails.
   Clinical stage of lead product: External approved. Internal trial 2023
   Probable time of first FDA approval: External done. Internal 2024
   Probable time of next financing: March or June 2023 quarter

Bellerophon Therapeutics (BLPH – $6.83) had an insider sale of 560,000 shares at $9.46 on May 18 from Puissance Life Science Opportunities Fund VI, leaving them with 1,211,262 shares. This is not a sale by Kevin Tang’s Tang Capital Partners, who invested $5 million in a private placement in March. Buy BLPH under $5 for a $30 first target and $100 someday.
Primary Risk: The Phase 2b PH-ILD trial fails or the FDA turns down the INOpulse.
   Clinical stage of lead product: Phase 2 transitioning to Phase 3 in the March quarter
   Probable time of first FDA approval: 2024
   Probable time of next financing: September 2023 quarter

Inovio (INO – $0.62) got Orphan Drug Designation for INO-3107 for the treatment of recurrent respiratory papillomatosis from the European Commission. It is the first RRP product candidate to receive orphan drug designation from both US and EU regulatory bodies. INO is a Buy under $7 for a very long-term hold.
Primary Risk: Their drugs fail in the clinic.
   Clinical stage of lead product: Phase 3
   Probable time of first FDA approval: 2023
   Probable time of next financing: Mid-2024

Invitae (NVTA – $1.08) said their CFO is resigning effective June 30. This sounds like a normal transition – she got a BBD (Bigger Better Deal, for those of you have never dated in LA). Buy NVTA under $10 for a first target of $50 and eventually $100+ when they become the Amazon of genetic testing.
Primary Risk: A competitor starts taking significant market share.
   Clinical stage of lead product: NM
   Probable time of first FDA approval: NM
   Probable time of next financing: Not needed

Inflation MegaShift

Gold ($1,940.90) tried to get back to $2,000 and couldn’t, even though it should be a safe haven for the “debt ceiling crisis.” Perhaps investors are tired of the bogus crises. It’s near a two-month low, When – not if – the spending limit is raised and the Treasury unleashes a firehose of new debt offerings, sanity might return.

The fractal dimension still says the underlying trend is up, in spite of the month-long stall. Again, it may take the debt limit deal plus a Fed pause to reignite the rally.

Miners & Related

Coeur Mining (CDE – $2.98) presented at the Goldman Sachs Leveraged Finance & Credit Conference. The two takeaway messages were:

Click for larger graphic

Silvertip is the big upside for the company:

Click for larger graphic

CDE is a Buy under $5 for a $20 target as gold goes higher.
Primary Risk: Prices of precious metals fall due to US dollar strength.

Cryptocurrencies

Cryptocurrencies are a diversifying asset that offer a unique opportunity to make (or lose!) a lot of money quickly. You can easily buy bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies at Coinbase, Block, or Robinhood.

Bitcoin (BTC-USD on Yahoo – $26,529.16) may have found a new consolidation level in the $25,000 to $28,000 range. If it breaks lower, definitely hold and buy more if you can.

Click for larger graphic

BTC-USD, ETH-USD, GBTC, and ETHE are Strong Buys.
Primary Risk: Bitcoin falls due to over-regulation or is surpassed by another cryptocurrency.

Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC- $13.76) still is the best way to easily get cryptocurrency exposure, especially in retirement accounts. GBTC is a Buy under net asset value.
Primary Risk: Bitcoin falls due to over-regulation or is surpassed by another cryptocurrency.

Commodities

Oil – $71.92

Oil was clipped almost $2.50 today as people needlessly worried about both a US default and higher Fed rates causing a severe recession.

This week’s Energy Information Administration’s oil storage report was bullish, but the market continues to find a million reasons to be skeptical about oil. Debt ceiling this, China demand that, Russian export this, and so on and so forth, but the reality is that the oil market data continues to trend favorably for the bulls. Most importantly, the demand weakness we saw in the US that started in April last year has turned into a strengthening trend. US implied oil demand on a four-week basis is now above 2019 and materially higher than 2021 and 2022.

Click for larger graphic h/t @HFI_Research

In the coming weeks, I expect implied oil demand to keep trending higher fueled by gasoline and jet fuel.

Click for larger graphic h/t @HFI_Research

By the end of the summer, gasoline, distillate, and jet fuel demand will be close to 2019 and US oil demand will hit an all-time high. Refinery throughput may not be enough to satisfy the demand.

Product storage already is below 2022. If demand outpaces 2022 by a good margin, US petroleum product exports will drop, which will result in tighter global product balances and higher prices. I expect June to show an oil market deficit of ~1 million barrels a day with the second half of 2023 showing an average of ~1.25 million barrels a day.

Click for larger graphic h/t @HFI_Research

On a total liquids basis, I expect US oil inventory balances to eliminate the surplus since the beginning of the year by mid-June. And by the end of July, we should see commercial total liquids below that of 2022. Once that happens, bears will have to acknowledge that the oil market deficit is back and that the market is far too pessimistic about oil.

Saudi Arabia’s Energy Minister Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman warned speculators to “watch out” – an implied threat to cut production again to drive prices higher when ministers from the expanded OPEC+ group of exporters meet on June 4. He said: “I keep advising them (speculators) that they will be ouching, they did ouch in April, I don’t have to show my cards, I am not a poker player … but I would just tell them watch out.”

According to Kpler, OPEC+ month-to-date crude exports are down about two million barrels a day from April.

Click for larger graphic h/t @HFI_Research

At the same time. total hedge fund short positions in the three main Brent and WTI futures and options contracts has more than doubled to 184 million barrels on May 16 from 79 million four weeks earlier. Even so, shorts were still below the recent high of 204 million barrels in late March before Saudi Arabia and its OPEC+ allies squeezed them by unexpectedly announcing an output cut of more than one million barrels per day. OPEC+ will likely have to cut its production targets or risk being thought to have made an empty threat.

Click for larger graphic

The July 2026 Crude Oil Futures (CLN26.NYM – $64.16) are a Buy under $65 for a $200+ target. Only buy futures for all cash; do not use margin.

The iPath Pure Beta Crude Oil Exchange-Traded Note (OIL – $27.99) is a Buy under $36 for an $80+ target.

EQT (EQT – $36.49) strengthened after BofA said shares of companies that drill primarily for natural gas are poised to outperform their oil-focused counterparts by multiples, based on future free cash flows. They said shares of natural-gas producers such as Southwestern Energy, Chesapeake Energy, EQT, and Range Resources could appreciate by 80% to 175% with limited downside.

EQT continues to dramatically improve its balance sheet as they began a cash tender offer for up to $250 million of their outstanding 6.125% Senior Notes due 2025. EQT is a buy under $35 for a first target of $70 and a long-term hold for much higher prices.
Primary Risk:Natural gas prices fall.

Freeport McMoRan (FCX – $33.63) is suffering from low copper prices due to Wall Street fears of a severe recession. If Wall Street thinks we can have AI everywhere without a heck of a lot of copper used, they don’t understand electricity. FCX is a buy under $44 for a $65 target within two years.
Primary Risk: Copper prices fall.

International & Other Recommendations
It is important to hold some non-US assets, especially in China. Cases of Omicron variant XBB are mounting in China, forming a new wave expected to crest around 65 million cases a week by the end of June. As we now know, the elderly and obese are most at risk, while others can continue with their lives. China is not likely to lock down again.

EMQQ Emerging Markets Internet & Ecommerce ETF (EMQQ – $28.02) is a Buy under $38 for a $66 target in 12 to 18 months.

KraneShares Bosera MSCI China A Share Fund (KBA – $23.59) is a Buy under $40 for a three- to five-year hold.

Morgan Stanley China A-Share Closed-End Fund (CAF – $13.06) is a Buy under $18 for a three- to five-year hold.

KraneShares CSI China Internet Exchange-Traded Fund (KWEB – $25.33) is a Buy under $40 for a double over the next three years.
Primary Risk of all four of these: China falls into a recession.

Acreage Holdings (ACRDF – $0.41) finally reported March quarter results. Revenues hit $56.0 million. The merger into Canopy USA is proceeding. ACRDF is a buy for a hold for the Canopy Growth merger and beyond.
Primary Risk: Canopy Growth does not acquire the company.

Mongolia Growth Group (MNGGF – $0.85) issued their March quarter shareholders letter. Kuppy said Mongolia is still in the dumps and KEDM has flatlined as new subscribers aren’t quite making up for dropouts. He wrote: “It should be noted that due to income tax considerations, we’ve made the difficult decision to no longer actively trade the portfolio. While active trading was a huge boon to our returns previously, we believe that the tax consequences of earning profits from trading don’t outweigh any benefits that we’ll receive from trading the portfolio. Therefore, it’s likely that overall returns will be dictated primarily by the returns of our existing portfolio. This was a difficult decision as active trading has been so accretive, but the math is the math. “

The portfolio is concentrated in investments in oil futures and futures options, energy services companies, uranium, and St. Joe (JOE), plus a small position in the Monero cryptocurrency. That all looks good to me. MNGGF is a buy under $1.30 for a long-term hold.
Primary Risk: Harris Kupperman makes bad investments.

* * * * *

RIP The First Queen of Rock

* * * * *

Your learning prompting Editor,

Michael Murphy CFA
Founding Editor
New World Investor

All Recommendations

Check out the complete Portfolio page HERE.

Buys
These are the stocks everyone needs to own because transformative events are happening over the next year or two, and I expect to hold them long-term.

Tech Dominators
  Apple Computer (AAPL – $172.99) – Buy under $150 for new iPhones
  Corning (GLW – $31.04) – Buy under $33, target price $60
  Gilead Sciences (GILD – $77.65) – Buy under $80, target price $120
  Meta (META – $252.69) – Buy under $250, target price $400
  SoftBank (SFTBY – $18.24) – Buy under $25, target price $50

Other Tech
  Enovix (ENVX – $12.30) – Buy under $13; 4-year hold to $100+
  First Trust NASDAQ Cybersecurity ETF (CIBR – $42.49) – Buy under $40; 3- to 5-year hold
  Fastly (FSLY – $14.78) – Buy under $20; 2- to 5-year hold to $80+
  PagerDuty (PD – $26.48) – Buy under $30; 2- to 5-year hold
  QuickLogic (QUIK – $5.66) – Buy under $10, target price $40
  Rocket Lab (RKLB – $4.59) – Buy under $13, target price $30+
  Velo3D (VLD – $1.66) – Buy under $6, target price $50

$20-for-$1
  Aptose Biosciences (APTO – $0.41) – Buy under $2.50, ultimate target $30
  Bellerophon Therapeutics (BLPH – $6.83) – Buy under $5, first target $30, then $100
  Compass Pathways (CMPS – $7.48) – Buy under $20, hold a long time for a 10x return
  Inovio (INO – $0.62) – Buy under $7, hold a long time
  Invitae (NVTA – $1.08) – Buy under $10, first target $50, then $100+
  Medicenna (MDNA – $0.52) – Buy under $3, first target $20, then maybe $40
  ScyNexis (SCYX – $2.66) – Buy under $2.50, target price $20, then $50

Inflation
  A Short-Sale or REO House – ($447,000) – Hold
  Bag of Junk Silver – ($22.85) – hold through silver bull market
  Sprott Gold Miners ETF (SGDM – $26.34) – Buy under $28, target price $50
  Sprott Junior Gold Miners ETF (SGDJ – $29.06) – Buy under $39, target price $100
  Sprott Physical Gold and Silver Trust (CEF – $18.26) – Buy under $18, target price $30
  Global X Silver Miners ETF (SIL – $26.46) – Buy under $30, target price $50
  Coeur Mining (CDE – $2.98) – Buy under $5, target price $20
  First Majestic Mining (AG – $5.76) – Buy under $11, next target price $23
  Paramount Gold Nevada (PZG – $0.29) – Buy under $1, first target price $10
  Sandstorm Gold (SAND – $5.07) – Buy under $10, target price $25
  Sprott Inc. (SII – $33.10) – Buy under $40, target price $70

Cryptocurrencies
  Bitcoin (BTC-USD – $26,529.16) – Buy
  Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC – $13.76) – Buy
  Ethereum (ETH-USD – $1,807.46) – Buy
  Grayscale Ethereum Trust (ETHE – $8.13) – Buy

Commodities
  Crude Oil Futures – July 2026 (CLN26.NYM – $64.16) – Buy under $65; $200+ target
  iPath Pure Beta Crude Oil Exchange-Traded Note (OIL – $27.99) – Buy under $36; $80+ target
  EQT (EQT – $36.49) – Buy under $35; $70 first target
  Energy Fuels (UUUU – $5.93) – Buy under $8; $30 target
  Freeport McMoRan (FCX – $33.63) – Buy under $44; $65 target within two years

International & Other Recommendations
  EMQQ Emerging Markets Internet & Ecommerce ETF (EMQQ – $28.02) – Buy under $38 for a $66 target in 12 to 18 months
  KraneShares Bosera MSCI China A Share Fund (KBA – $23.59) – Buy under $40 for a three- to five-year hold
  Morgan Stanley China A-Shares Fund (CAF – $13.06) – Buy under $18 for a three- to five-year hold
  KraneShares CSI China Internet ETF (KWEB – $25.33) – Buy under $40 for a double over the next three years
  Acreage Holdings (ACRDF – $0.41) – Buy under $2 for the Canopy Growth merger
  Mongolia Growth Group (MNGGF – $0.85) – Buy under $1.30; long-term hold

Holds
These are holds but not sells – yet. They could get moved back to one of the buy categories if their prices drop or outlook improves, or they could become sell recommendations in the future.
  Akebia Biotherapeutics (AKBA – $1.21) – Hold for FDA decision
  Arch Therapeutics (ARTH – $2.79) – Hold for buyout
  Graphite Bio (GRPH – $2.65) – Hold until they update their strategy
  TG Therapeutics (TGTX – $37.03) – Hold for buyout at $25+Check out the complete Portfolio page HERE.

Buys
These are the stocks everyone needs to own because transformative events are happening over the next year or two, and I expect to hold them long-term.

Tech Dominators
  Apple Computer (AAPL – $172.99) – Buy under $150 for new iPhones
  Corning (GLW – $31.04) – Buy under $33, target price $60
  Gilead Sciences (GILD – $77.65) – Buy under $80, target price $120
  Meta (META – $252.69) – Buy under $250, target price $400
  SoftBank (SFTBY – $18.24) – Buy under $25, target price $50

Other Tech
  Enovix (ENVX – $12.30) – Buy under $13; 4-year hold to $100+
  First Trust NASDAQ Cybersecurity ETF (CIBR – $42.49) – Buy under $40; 3- to 5-year hold
  Fastly (FSLY – $14.78) – Buy under $20; 2- to 5-year hold to $80+
  PagerDuty (PD – $26.48) – Buy under $30; 2- to 5-year hold
  QuickLogic (QUIK – $5.66) – Buy under $10, target price $40
  Rocket Lab (RKLB – $4.59) – Buy under $13, target price $30+
  Velo3D (VLD – $1.66) – Buy under $6, target price $50

$20-for-$1
  Aptose Biosciences (APTO – $0.41) – Buy under $2.50, ultimate target $30
  Bellerophon Therapeutics (BLPH – $6.83) – Buy under $5, first target $30, then $100
  Compass Pathways (CMPS – $7.48) – Buy under $20, hold a long time for a 10x return
  Inovio (INO – $0.62) – Buy under $7, hold a long time
  Invitae (NVTA – $1.08) – Buy under $10, first target $50, then $100+
  Medicenna (MDNA – $0.52) – Buy under $3, first target $20, then maybe $40
  ScyNexis (SCYX – $2.66) – Buy under $2.50, target price $20, then $50

Inflation
  A Short-Sale or REO House – ($447,000) – Hold
  Bag of Junk Silver – ($22.85) – hold through silver bull market
  Sprott Gold Miners ETF (SGDM – $26.34) – Buy under $28, target price $50
  Sprott Junior Gold Miners ETF (SGDJ – $29.06) – Buy under $39, target price $100
  Sprott Physical Gold and Silver Trust (CEF – $18.26) – Buy under $18, target price $30
  Global X Silver Miners ETF (SIL – $26.46) – Buy under $30, target price $50
  Coeur Mining (CDE – $2.98) – Buy under $5, target price $20
  First Majestic Mining (AG – $5.76) – Buy under $11, next target price $23
  Paramount Gold Nevada (PZG – $0.29) – Buy under $1, first target price $10
  Sandstorm Gold (SAND – $5.07) – Buy under $10, target price $25
  Sprott Inc. (SII – $33.10) – Buy under $40, target price $70

Cryptocurrencies
  Bitcoin (BTC-USD – $26,529.16) – Buy
  Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC – $13.76) – Buy
  Ethereum (ETH-USD – $1,807.46) – Buy
  Grayscale Ethereum Trust (ETHE – $8.13) – Buy

Commodities
  Crude Oil Futures – July 2026 (CLN26.NYM – $64.16) – Buy under $65; $200+ target
  iPath Pure Beta Crude Oil Exchange-Traded Note (OIL – $27.99) – Buy under $36; $80+ target
  EQT (EQT – $36.49) – Buy under $35; $70 first target
  Energy Fuels (UUUU – $5.93) – Buy under $8; $30 target
  Freeport McMoRan (FCX – $33.63) – Buy under $44; $65 target within two years

International & Other Recommendations
  EMQQ Emerging Markets Internet & Ecommerce ETF (EMQQ – $28.02) – Buy under $38 for a $66 target in 12 to 18 months
  KraneShares Bosera MSCI China A Share Fund (KBA – $23.59) – Buy under $40 for a three- to five-year hold
  Morgan Stanley China A-Shares Fund (CAF – $13.06) – Buy under $18 for a three- to five-year hold
  KraneShares CSI China Internet ETF (KWEB – $25.33) – Buy under $40 for a double over the next three years
  Acreage Holdings (ACRDF – $0.41) – Buy under $2 for the Canopy Growth merger
  Mongolia Growth Group (MNGGF – $0.85) – Buy under $1.30; long-term hold

Holds
These are holds but not sells – yet. They could get moved back to one of the buy categories if their prices drop or outlook improves, or they could become sell recommendations in the future.
  Akebia Biotherapeutics (AKBA – $1.21) – Hold for FDA decision
  Arch Therapeutics (ARTH – $2.79) – Hold for buyout
  Graphite Bio (GRPH – $2.65) – Hold until they update their strategy
  TG Therapeutics (TGTX – $27.20) – Hold for buyout at $25+

Publisher: GwynRose LLC, 5348 Vegas Drive, Suite 868, Las Vegas, NV 89108

New World Investor does not act as a personal investment adviser or advocate the purchase or sale of any security or investment for any specific individual. The recommendations and analysis presented to members are for the exclusive use of members. Members should be aware that investment markets have inherent risks and there can be no guarantee of future profits. Likewise, past performance does not assure future results. Recommendations are subject to change at any time. Nothing in this presentation should be considered personalized investment advice. No communication to you by Michael Murphy or any of our employees or contractors should be deemed as personalized investment advice.

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