Dear New World Investor:
Wednesday and Thursday were the Fed’s semiannual Humphrey-Hawkins testimony to Congress. “Even if inflation accelerates, we aren’t going to raise rates,” said nobody, ever. Of course Chairman Powell said they may raise rates further if inflation doesn’t head down towards 2%.
The next Fed meeting is on July 26, while the next Consumer Price Index report comes July 12. It is expected to decline to only 3.2% year over year. With that kind of news, there is no chance they’ll raise the Fed funds rate again. That’s the good news.
The bad news is in this graphic:
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This CNN graphic shows how far sentiment has shifted. As Goldman Sachs said: “Slowly and quietly….starting with CTA’s [commodity trading advisers]…followed by retail and then topped off by Insto and Hedge funds….positioning has gotten much fuller.”
In other words, the money has come off the sidelines and, right on schedule, the fractal dimension shows the uptrend has used about half of the stored-up energy, leaving just enough to push higher into July.
There could be a pullback next week but overall I expect the Index to work its way higher into the next weekly cycle high that is due from July 17 to July 24. The probable target for a July high is the March 2022 high at 4637. A July high is likely to lead to a 5% to 7% correction.
Market Outlook
The S&P 500 lost 1.0% since last Thursday but is up 14.1% year-to-date and is back to where it was when the Fed started raising rates. The Nasdaq Composite lost a similar 1.1% and is up 30.2% – more than double the S&P for the year to date.
The Nasdaq 100 (NDX) closed today at 15,042.32, 22.4% above its 200-day moving average (12285). The last time is was so far from its 200DMA was in July and August 2020. It ended with a blow-off top on September 2, 2020, when it was 32.8% above the 200DMA. We may see something similar going into July this year. If it can get above 15272, the next resistance is the all-time high at 16765.
The small-cap Russell 2000 dropped 2.2% for the week and is clinging to an up 2023 at +4.9%.
Top 5
Changes this week: Added SFTBY; replaced OIL with USL – see below
Near-Term – chronological order
EQT EQT –natural gas price rebound
USL United States 12 Month Oil Fund, LP – crude should rise quickly
SFTBY SoftBank – for ARM IPO this fall
AKBA Akebia – Vadadustat NDA filing 2023; approval 2024
VLD Velo3D – Rapid revenue growth; low market cap
Long-Term – alphabetical order
EQT EQT – largest US natural gas company
NVTA Invitae – the winner-take-most of genetic testing
META Meta – a (the?) leader in the metaverse
RKLB Rocket Lab – #2 to SpaceX in space
VLD Velo3D – Return manufacturing to the US
GBTC Grayscale Bitcoin Trust – Bitcoin is headed for $100,000
Economy
The Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow model is at +1.9% for June quarter real Gross Domestic Product growth, still above the consensus.
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Coming Events
All times below are ET, and most presentations and slides are archived on the companies’ websites so you can listen to them.
Monday, June 26
CMPS – Compass Pathways – 7:00am – HC Wainwright Neuropsychiatry Conference
Tuesday, June 27
RKLB – Rocket Lab – 12:20pm – Jefferies Space Summit
Short Interest – After the close
Thursday, June 29
March quarter GDP – 8:30am – Third estimate
Friday, June 30
Personal Consumption Expenditures Index – 8:30am – Expected: Headline +3.87% YoY, +0.13% QoQ. Core: +4.70% YoY, +0.38% QoQ
Big Tech: The Biotech & Digital Dominators MegaShift
There are at least four ways to make money in the stocks of these large, growing, dominant companies. You can:
* * Buy a stock and hold it
* * Buy a stock and write a call option against it
* * With a Level IV options account, write an out-of-the-money put option
* * With a Level IV options account, write an out-of-the-money put option and use part of the premium to buy an out-of-the-money call option
Apple (AAPL – $187.00) released the Vision Pro software development kit to developers to modify current apps and build new ones. They also get access to a new tool called Reality Composer Pro to preview 3D objects that they’re building for their apps. This probably means the headset spatial computer will go on sale in the March quarter.
In July, Apple will open developer labs in Cupertino, London, Munich, Shanghai, Singapore, and Tokyo to provide developers with hands-on experience to test their apps on Apple Vision Pro hardware and get support from Apple engineers. Development teams will also be able to apply for developer kits to help them quickly build, iterate, and test right on the Vision Pro. Developers who have been building 3D apps and games with Unity’s (U) authoring tools can port their Unity apps to Vision Pro and take full advantage of its capabilities.
The President of Elsevier Health said: “With Apple Vision Pro, Complete HeartX will help prepare medical students for clinical practice by using hyper-realistic 3D models and animations that help them understand and visualize medical issues, such as ventricular fibrillation, and how to apply their knowledge with patients. Learning through Complete HeartX on Apple Vision Pro will transform medical education and prepare future health professionals for practice.”
The CEO of Algoriddim said: “The djayapp on Apple Vision Pro puts a fully featured DJ system right at a user’s fingertips. With a reimagined spatial interface, anyone can mix their favorite music and apply real-time effects using just their eyes and hands. Whether for a beginner or a seasoned professional, djay on Vision Pro transforms the user’s surroundings with stunning environments that automatically react to their mix, enabling them to experience and interact with music in ways never before possible.”
AAPL is a Buy under $150 for new iPhone rollouts and augmented/virtual reality products.
Meta Platforms (META – $284.88) announced a research project, Voicebox, an AI tool for speech generation.
The Street when META was $88: “The apps are isht. TikTok is the future. Zuck won’t make needed cost cuts. It’s behind in AI.”
The Street with META at $275: “Apps growing even for Facebook. Gen Z is coming back. Reels is the future. Monetization and engagement gaps are closing. Zuck making needed cuts. Open sourcing AI is genius.” META is a Buy under $150 for a $400 target in 2024.
SoftBank (SFTBY – $23.84) held their annual meeting, aka MASA IS BACK! After going into “defense” mode last year, slowing new tech investments, and more or less withdrawing from public view to get ARM ready for its initial public offering, Masa said they are “shifting to offense mode” in a remarkable 35-slide presentation (VIDEO HERE and SLIDES HERE). Starting with a basic Q&A:
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Masa thinks Chat-GPT woke up the world to the potential of AI, and he’s probably right. He showed this slide on exam performance:
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So he’s started a contest among his companies and investments to submit uses for generative AI like Chat-GPT. It attracted 52,000 proposals in 10 days!
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Beyond generative AI, he gets the ultimate power of AI:
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And he couldn’t resist a commercial for ARM. There will be a big demand for AI at the edge, where Nvidia graphics processing units are too expensive and overkill. ARM aims to dominate that market. The ARM IPO is expected to net $10 billion for SoftBank, which Masa will use to buy back more SFTBY stock at a discount to net asset value (which will be higher based on their ARM holdings).
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I am adding SoftBank to the Near-Term Buys for the ARM initial public offering this fall. SFTBY is a Buy under $25 for a first target of $50 in the next two years.
Small Tech
Enovix (ENVX – $13.63) jumped after saying it already has achieved its June quarter forecast of 18,000 units manufactured at its Fab1 site in California. With two weeks remaining in the quarter, it expects to beat their guidance for the number of batteries produced. For the full year, they reiterated guidance for production of 180,000 cells from Fab1 to support broad qualification activities and customer products.
They will begin high-volume manufacturing at their Fab2 location in Malaysia next year. The Gen2 Autoline 1 in Fab2 will have the capacity to produce more than nine million batteries annually.
There was a wide-ranging Twitter Spaces worth listening to. ENVX is a Buy up to $13 for a 4-year hold to $100+ as their BrakeFlow lithium-ion battery takes market share.
Primary Risk: A new competitor invents a better battery.
Fastly (FSLY – $16.09) held a very comprehensive Investor Day today (WEBINAR HERE). One of the key slides addressed Wall Street’s concern with gross margins.
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They pointed out that in 2020, the Super Bowl produced record traffic for them. Today, that traffic is 30% below their lowest traffic metrics on Tuesdays at 4:00am. It used to be the Super Bowl traffic was their highest until late in the year. This year, they’ve already exceeded the 2023 Super Bowl traffic three times.
The CFO said they are laser-focused on getting to profitability:
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He addressed the gross margin question directly – they are in the high 50% now, targeting 60% this year and the high 60s in two or three years.
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They are cutting operating expenses…
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…which will help get them to profitability.
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And dramatically improve cash flow.
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Their long-term model includes $1 billion in annual revenues.
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FSLY is a Buy up to $20 for a 2- to 5-year hold to $80+ as Compute@Edge drives customer acquisition and revenue growth.
Primary Risk:Content and applications delivery networks are a competitive area.
Rocket Lab USA (RKLB – $5.79) presented at the Wells Fargo Industrials Conference (AUDIO HERE). They already have gotten to their 1/3 launch-2/3 space systems revenue goal. They are 80% government today but are targeting 1/3 each coming from civil, defense, and commercial.
They expect to do 15 launches in 2023 and 20 in 2024 at $7.5 million each. The Space Systems $140 million contract from Globalstar starts ramping in the second half of this year. Profitability will depend on when they get past the Neutron investment, which currently is on target for completion in the December 2024 quarter.
They successfully launched their first suborbital testbed launch vehicle, called HASTE (Hypersonic Accelerator Suborbital Test Electron), for a “confidential customer.” (Shhh, don’t tell – it’s the Department of Defense.) The launch was from their Launch Complex 2 at Virginia’s Mid-Atlantic Regional Spaceport within NASA’s Wallops Flight Facility. The DoD certainly wanted a US launch pad.
The HASTE suborbital launch vehicle is derived from the Electron rocket but has a modified Kick Stage for hypersonic payload deployment and a larger payload capacity of up to 1,540 lbs, By leveraging the low-cost Electron, HASTE offers true commercial testing capability at a fraction of the cost of current full-scale tests.
Today, the company signed a dedicated launch deal with Spire Global (SPIR) to deliver its first four Space Situational Awareness satellites to low Earth orbit for Spire’s Space Services customer, NorthStar Earth & Space. Spire has previously launched with Rocket Lab on Electron’s first two commercial missions. This mission was originally manifested to launch with a now defunct launch competitor, but has been added to Rocket Lab’s launch manifest to provide an expedited launch. Spire Global selected Rocket Lab because they could reliably launch the satellites on an accelerated timeline within five months of contract signing. RKLB is a Buy up to $13 for my $30+ target as low earth orbit satellites and space exploration grow.
Primary Risk: A new competitor emerges.
Velo3D (VLD – $2.01) said that Avio SpA, a leading Italian aerospace company, bought a Sapphire XC 1MZ printer and an original Sapphire printer to support the development and production of its propulsion systems. Both printers are calibrated to produce parts in nickel-based alloys that deliver strength and corrosion resistance at extreme temperatures. VLD is a Buy up to $6 for my $50 target as Velo3D’s high-tolerance metal parts printing business grows.
Primary Risk:A new 3D metal printing competitor emerges.
Biotech MegaShift: The $20-For-$1 Stocks
Say you put $2,000 into a stock that goes from 50¢ a share to $10. The $2,000 turns into $40,000. Then you put the $40,000 into another stock that goes from 50¢ to $10. That turns the $40,000 into $800,000. You did it with two stocks and never risked going negative more than $2,000. (Not that you won’t be mad at me if the first one works and then the second one doesn’t, taking your $40,000 to Money Heaven.)
If you can afford it – and it would not be too big a position in your portfolio – putting $2,000 into each of these speculative biotechs might be a good way to start. Buying these out-of-favor, fallen, or forgotten companies that can get important products through the FDA at very low market capitalizations seems like a good strategy to me.
Risks
Development-stage biotechs are subject to investor sentiment swings from wildly optimistic to excessively pessimistic – mostly the latter recently. After the Primary Risk for each company, I’ve added the clinical stage of their lead product, the probable time of their first FDA approval, and the probable time of their next financing.
As always, you need to think about an appropriate position size. You could buy a full position upfront and then just hold on, or buy some upfront and leave room to add more on the inevitable financings, transient clinical trial setbacks, and the like.
Akebia Therapeutics (AKBA- $1.04) got Swissmedic (Swiss Agency for Therapeutic Products) approval for Vafseo (vadadustat). Vadadustat is now approved in 34 countries and their partner Medice will launch Vafseo in Europe this year. Buy AKBA up to $2 for the vadadustat lunches in the EU, UK, and (after FDA approval in 2024) the US.
Primary Risk: Vadadustat not approved in the US.
Clinical stage of lead product: Vadadustat NDA to be refiled
Probable time of next FDA approval: Mid-2024
Probable time of next financing: Unknown
ScyNexis (SCYX – $2.79) got a $25 million performance-based development milestone under its license agreement with Glaxo SmithKline for ibrexafungerp. The milestone payment follows a development goal for the Phase 3 MARIO study for ibrexafungerp in invasive candidiasis as SCYNEXIS continues executing ongoing ibrexafungerp trials.
As you probably remember, ScyNexis received a $90 million upfront payment and is eligible for additional milestone payments totaling up to $503 million. Glaxo will also pay mid-single digit to mid-teen digit tiered royalties on the totality of sales across all indications. Buy SCYX under $2.50 for a first target price of $20 after ibrexafungerp is approved for hospital use and a buyout at $50.
Primary Risk: Ibrexafungerp fails to sell.
Clinical stage of lead product: Approved
Probable time of next FDA approval: 2023/2024
Probable time of next financing: Never
Inflation MegaShift
Gold ($1,924.60) has been setting weekly cycle lows every 15 to 18 weeks since August 2021. In order to confirm that it has bottomed it has to close above its 10-week moving average, now at $1,952. The low may occur as late as the first week of July. The fractal dimension has stalled and looks like it may be headed back into a consolidation phase before using all the stored-up energy.
Miners & Related
Coeur Mining (CDE – $2.88) did a $19 million private placement to fund further exploration at the high-grade Silvertip polymetallic exploration project in British Columbia. The company provided plans for a sustained 24-month exploration program beginning July 1. It is designed to enable better understanding of the overall mineralizing system, discover all mineralization styles, expand the resource base, and assess the potential footprint and upside of the larger land package, 95% of which remains to be explored. CDE is a Buy under $5 for a $20 target as gold goes higher.
Primary Risk: Prices of precious metals fall due to US dollar strength.
Sandstorm Gold (SAND – $4.97) completed the previously announced sale of their 1.66% net profits interest on the Antamina copper mine in Peru for $20 million in cash, a 1.66% life-of-mine silver stream referenced to silver production from Antamina, a secured long-term $149.1 million convertible note , and 2,329,849 common shares of Horizon, which maintains Sandstorm’s 34% ownership of Horizon. Horizon Copper began trading on the TSX-V on June 21. SAND is a Buy under $10 for a $25 target.
Primary Risk: Prices of precious metals fall due to US dollar strength.
Cryptocurrencies
Cryptocurrencies are a diversifying asset that offer a unique opportunity to make (or lose!) a lot of money quickly. You can easily buy bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies at Coinbase, Block, or Robinhood.
Bitcoin (BTC-USD on Yahoo – $30,120.02) surged after a new cryptocurrency exchange, EDX Markets, backed by Citadel Securities, Fidelity Investments, and Charles Schwab started operations on June 20. They have a non-custodial model designed to minimize conflicts of interest and avoid entanglements with the SEC. EDX supports the trading of only four cryptocurrencies: bitcoin, ether, Litecoin and Bitcoin Cash, none of which have been identified as securities by the SEC.
In contrast, most current crypto exchanges require their customers to park their digital coins in wallets run by the exchange, creating the risk that the exchange could lose the funds or be tempted to “misuse” them. Additionally, unlike most crypto exchanges, EDX won’t directly serve individual investors. Instead, it expects that retail brokerages will send investors’ orders to buy and sell digital coins to its marketplace.
What this means is that the pervasive lack of liquidity that has plagued bitcoin and crypto trading ever since the collapse of FTX, the legal actions targeting Binance, and the withdrawal of high frequency trading shops such as Jane Street, is about to be replenished by the influx of several new huge entrants.
Sentiment also was lifted in recent days after Fed Chairman Powell said bitcoin has “staying power” as an asset class. He also said he has been a Grateful Dead fan for 50 years – I’m beginning to really like this guy!
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Who holds the remaining 18 million bitcoin?
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BTC-USD, ETH-USD, GBTC, and ETHE are Strong Buys.
Primary Risk: Bitcoin falls due to over-regulation or is surpassed by another cryptocurrency.
Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC- $18.00) rallied with bitcoin after after BlackRock, the world’s largest asset manager, filed for a spot bitcoin exchange-traded fund.
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It’s a very direct, very public challenge to the SEC. GBTC is a Buy under net asset value.
Primary Risk: Bitcoin falls due to over-regulation or is surpassed by another cryptocurrency.
Commodities
Oil – $69.42
Oil dropped over 4% today as traders reacted to the sticker shock of the latest Bank of England 50-basis-points rate hike that stunned global markets. But the more important news was a very positive weekly reading on oil inventories from the U.S. Energy Information Administration. Crude oil inventories fell by 3.831 million barrels last week – and that was after a 1.7 million barrel addition to inventories from another huge release from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve – when the consensus was expecting a 1.837 million barrel increase.
The EIA said it was the highest weekly demand for fuels since December as the summer driving season began. At the same time, US oil production is peaking.
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While demand trends higher.
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Legacy shale requires 10,000 barrels of fresh production every single day just to make up for its natural decline. 2022 was the last hurrah fueled by higher prices and complete drawdown of DUCs (drilled but uncompleted wells). The 2023 declines will be hard and fast.
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The July 2026 Crude Oil Futures (CLN26.NYM – $63.86) are a Buy under $65 for a $200+ target. Only buy futures for all cash; do not use margin.
The iPath Pure Beta Crude Oil Exchange-Traded Note (OIL) was retired by Barclay’s, the sponsor, at $28.42. I’ve looked at several alternatives – all worse – and decided to replace it with an exchange-traded fund, the United States 12 Month Oil Fund, LP (USL). USL is a Buy under $35 for a $100+ target.
EQT (EQT – $39.46) is slowly moving up as natural gas prices recover. Natty had a decisive close above its 20-week moving average, confirming that it made a weekly cycle low in the last week of March. That low probably was the low for the year as well. That will be confirmed when it breaks above the February high at $3.03. EQT is a buy under $35 for a first target of $70 and a long-term hold for much higher prices.
Primary Risk:Natural gas prices fall.
International & Other Recommendations
It is important to hold some non-US assets, especially in China.
Acreage Holdings (ACRDF – $0.34) reduced their Board size by four members as they get ready for the Canopy USA merger. No big deal. ACRDF is a buy under $2 for a hold for the Canopy Growth merger and beyond.
Primary Risk: Canopy Growth does not acquire the company.
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All Recommendations
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Buys
These are the stocks everyone needs to own because transformative events are happening over the next year or two, and I expect to hold them long-term.
Tech Dominators
Apple Computer (AAPL – $187.00) – Buy under $150 for new iPhones
Corning (GLW – $34.45) – Buy under $33, target price $60
Gilead Sciences (GILD – $78.11) – Buy under $80, target price $120
Meta (META – $284.88) – Buy under $250, target price $400
SoftBank (SFTBY – $23.84) – Buy under $25, target price $50
Other Tech
Enovix (ENVX – $13.63) – Buy under $13; 4-year hold to $100+
First Trust NASDAQ Cybersecurity ETF (CIBR – $44.74) – Buy under $40; 3- to 5-year hold
Fastly (FSLY – $16.09) – Buy under $20; 2- to 5-year hold to $80+
PagerDuty (PD – $21.80) – Buy under $30; 2- to 5-year hold
QuickLogic (QUIK – $7.44) – Buy under $10, target price $40
Rocket Lab (RKLB – $5.79) – Buy under $13, target price $30+
Velo3D (VLD – $2.01) – Buy under $6, target price $50
$20-for-$1
Akebia Biotherapeutics (AKBA – $1.04) – Buy under $2, target $20
Aptose Biosciences (APTO – $5.73) – Buy under $10, ultimate target $300
Compass Pathways (CMPS – $7.99) – Buy under $20, hold a long time for a 10x return
Inovio (INO – $0.45) – Buy under $7, hold a long time
Invitae (NVTA – $1.13) – Buy under $10, first target $50, then $100+
Medicenna (MDNA – $0.53) – Buy under $3, first target $20, then maybe $40
ScyNexis (SCYX – $2.79) – Buy under $2.50, target price $20, then $50
Inflation
A Short-Sale or REO House – ($447,000) – Hold
Bag of Junk Silver – ($22.28) – hold through silver bull market
Sprott Gold Miners ETF (SGDM – $25.53) – Buy under $28, target price $50
Sprott Junior Gold Miners ETF (SGDJ – $28.16) – Buy under $39, target price $100
Sprott Physical Gold and Silver Trust (CEF – $17.87) – Buy under $18, target price $30
Global X Silver Miners ETF (SIL – $25.62) – Buy under $30, target price $50
Coeur Mining (CDE – $2.88) – Buy under $5, target price $20
First Majestic Mining (AG – $5.33) – Buy under $11, next target price $23
Paramount Gold Nevada (PZG – $0.32) – Buy under $1, first target price $10
Sandstorm Gold (SAND – $4.97) – Buy under $10, target price $25
Sprott Inc. (SII – $32.15) – Buy under $40, target price $70
Cryptocurrencies
Bitcoin (BTC-USD – $30,120.02) – Buy
Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC – $18.00) – Buy
Ethereum (ETH-USD – $1,878.85) – Buy
Grayscale Ethereum Trust (ETHE – $9.50) – Buy
Commodities
Crude Oil Futures – July 2026 (CLN26.NYM – $63.86) – Buy under $65; $200+ target
United States 12 Month Oil Fund, LP (USL – $32.11) – Buy under $35; $100+ target
EQT (EQT – $39.46) – Buy under $35; $70 first target
Energy Fuels (UUUU – $6.19) – Buy under $8; $30 target
Freeport McMoRan (FCX – $39.72) – Buy under $44; $65 target within two years
International & Other Recommendations
EMQQ Emerging Markets Internet & Ecommerce ETF (EMQQ – $29.84) – Buy under $38 for a $66 target in 12 to 18 months
KraneShares Bosera MSCI China A Share Fund (KBA – $23.37) – Buy under $40 for a three- to five-year hold
Morgan Stanley China A-Shares Fund (CAF – $12.71) – Buy under $18 for a three- to five-year hold
KraneShares CSI China Internet ETF (KWEB – $27.51) – Buy under $40 for a double over the next three years
Acreage Holdings (ACRDF – $0.34) – Buy under $2 for the Canopy Growth merger
Mongolia Growth Group (MNGGF – $0.90) – Buy under $1.30; long-term hold
Holds
These are holds but not sells – yet. They could get moved back to one of the buy categories if their prices drop or outlook improves, or they could become sell recommendations in the future.
Arch Therapeutics (ARTH – $3.11) – Hold for buyout
Graphite Bio (GRPH – $2.76) – Hold until they update their strategy
TG Therapeutics (TGTX – $23.71) – Hold for buyout at $25+
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Repost of subscriber Michael’s source of very negative analysis of ENVX.
Michael
June 22, 2023 11:36 am
Pretty nasty hit piece on ENVX. https://www.pigfarmercapital.com/
MM–please read and comment. Thanks.
I held ENVX for a hot minute but rolled the money into TSLA. If a new battery tech is developed, I’m betting on Elon and crew rather than some money losing startup.
This Bear Loser is writing a PhD thesis trying to prove that TJ Rodgers is the first cousin of Elizabeth Holmes. Pure intellectual dishonesty from somebody that, like 99% of Bears, has a psychotic hatred of people that have been more successful than them. Yes there is risk, BUT between here and Zero, there will be plenty of opportunity for ENVX to have some gigantic rallies to fatally cream Mr. Pig Farmer.
Hitching to short? How about all those Commercial Real Estate “See Through” buildings/shopping malls with huge mortgages to roll over at higher rates? In comparison ENVX looks like a VERY inefficient short, imho.
The basic problem is that unless you are an informed scientist with real world expertise, you don’t know if TJ Rodgers is correct or full of crap. The real world of scientists is highly political. Most scientists have agendas because they work for large organizations that fund them, so they are reduced to the political agendas of their employers. The truth teller MD often has trouble getting his case studies published in medical journals whose editorial board has their inherent biases. These panels of “experts” are employed by big Pharma or other big political institutions. Prestigious journals like Lancet, New England J of Medicine are often guilty of this bias despite their claims of high minded honesty. They have retracted articles via courageous whistle blowers. One egregious example is Dr. Paul Marik, who pioneered a combined nutritional and drug protocol for sepsis. He reduced sepsis mortality from 40% to 8%. But an Australian academic a-hole smeared Marik, and the publicity caused the Norfolk, Va hospital to revoke Marik’s privileges. Marik lost his medical license after he was reported to the National Practitioner Data Bank. But Marik’s lawsuit prompted a review of Marik’s claims, and he was vindicated. The Australian MD issued a weak, half-hearted acknowledgment of his error AND defamation wrongdoing. Marik is still without a medical license, despite his vindication. The real victims are the patients who died after the hospital refused to continue Marik’s life saving treatment.
I think we’ve all been burned enough by MM’s spec plays. I only buy profitable companies with some sort of moat now.
Thanks for your PigFarmer article. Nobody here is knowledgeable enough to judge whether TJ Rodgers is really a brilliant innovator. If Elon Musk and his street smart experts decide that TJ has the best battery, I’ll change my mind.
Peter Lynch quaintly said to buy what you know is good. Walk into a store, and if you think the business is brisk, buy the company stock. That assumes you have better insights than the average investor. Good luck in trying to outsmart sophisticated tech experts in the business–but I don’t mean financial analysts who are merely armchair mavens. You’ve got a wise strategy, especially since you just retired from your career.
Good idea to short highly leveraged companies vulnerable to rising interest rates. Maybe the same applies to tech startups like ENVX in a competitive product line. Even if ENVX has the best battery, there is lots of competition so that what counts is the best political connections rather than battery connections! Sparks and scandals!
ENVX just announced it won some DoD business. Stock very strong at the open now up 9% and about to break out of $16 on big volume. Let’s see where it closes, but Mr. Knowitall Pig Farmer stands a good chance to get thoroughly creamed today.
Also, makes you wonder about the Pentagon signing contracts for grunts’ battery packs but not for nextgen hemostatic compounds like ARTH’s AC5….
ENVX- Correction, up almost 22% on the day.
One thing to keep in mind, particularly for short term/Day traders, is that the end of the quarter is approaching and hedge funds that are short the stock may consider covering their positions in order not to show end of the quarter exposure to the name and perhaps re-short after June 30th. Naturally, given the large short contingent in this name the covering action might push the shares higher.
If the science of ENVX’s battery is flawed, as claimed by PigFarmer, then long term the stock is a bust. Nobody here knows what the truth is. As for TGTX, long term it looks hopeful, but short term the stock has been bad. There was a YMB poster who was ridiculed when he refused to join the party of the momentum players after approval. When TGTX was low 30’s, he projected a correction to 25, and it is now in the low 20’s. Beware of hype-ster momentum players.
Sure, why the capricious Pentagon orders of ENVX and not the superior hemostat AC5? Could easily be fashionable promotion without substance. Nobody knows. Ignore the hype here.
What happens now with the ipath pure beta crude oil exchange traded note now that it has been retired?
MM or anyone. How or where can I buy an oil futures CL contract for all cash ? E trade doesn’t allow; they only trade futures with margin.
They do have mini contracts (500 barrels) and a micro contract (100 barrels) but still only on margin, cannot pay full cash price.
QuickLogic (QUIK) becoming fun for the first time since 2011.
I would still like to see MM comment on the ENVX Pig Farmer article, but it’s worth noting that ENVIX is up over 16% after the company announced it received a purchase order to produce battery cells for the U.S. Army.
A Con Man for President in 2024?
(“Failing”) NYTimes has a great story on Vivek Ramaswamy. Why is he rich? He got a Bachelor’s in Biology at Harvard and then a law degree from Yale and went to work at a hedge fund. He started Roivant Science, incorporated in the tax haven of Bermuda and backed by nearly $100 million in funding from investors including QVT, a hedge fund that employed him after college. “This will be the highest return on investment endeavor ever taken up in the pharmaceutical industry,” he boasted in a cover story in Forbes.
The “Roi” in the company’s name stands for return on investment.
In late 2014, the Roivant subsidiary that would be called Axovant bought for $5 million upfront — pocket change in the biotech industry — an Alzheimer’s drug called intepirdine that GlaxoSmithKline had given up on after four failed clinical trials.
Six months later, before starting any new clinical trials for the drug, he took Axovant public in a debut that sent the company’s market value to nearly $3 billion.
In late 2015, he sold off a portion of his Roivant shares to an institutional investor, Viking Global Investors, that wanted in. The sale was a major payday: On his 2015 tax return, Mr. Ramaswamy claimed more than $37 million in capital gains.
In an interview, Mr. Ramaswamy said he cashed out only to make room for Viking, not to hedge his bets ahead of intepirdine’s clinical trial.
He pitched Masayoshi Son and in August of 2017, SoftBank led an investment of $1.1 billion in Roivant.
A few weeks later, the Alzheimer’s drug’s clinical trial failed. The stock price plunged, losing 75 percent of its value in a single day. The stock slid further in the months that followed and never recovered before the company was dissolved this year.
Thanks to the way he structured his biotechnology empire, he did not hold a direct stake in Axovant. His personal stake was through Roivant, allowing Vivek to weather the storm. QVT, the hedge fund where he once worked, had also invested in Roivant, insulating it from much of the fallout.
In 2019, Roivant sold off its stake in five of its most promising spinoff companies to Sumitomo, a giant Japanese conglomerate.
That proved to be Vivek’s biggest payday. His 2020 tax return included nearly $175 million in capital gains.
In recent years, he has stepped back from Roivant, leaving his roles as chief executive in 2021 and chairman in February. He remains the sixth largest shareholder in the company, with a stake currently valued at more than $500 million. (He has yet to file personal financial disclosures for his presidential run, but he has released 20 years of tax returns and called for his competitors in the Republican race to do the same.)
Mr. Ramaswamy’s pitch that his business model would lead to affordable drug prices has not come to pass. One example is the product for which he has said he is most proud, a one-time implant for children with a rare and devastating immune ailment. When Enzyvant, the Roivant spinoff company by then controlled by Sumitomo, won regulatory approval in 2021, it set a sticker price of $2.7 million.
All managements of spec bio companies are corrupt. Alzheimer’s will never be successfully managed by any drug. The best management comes from holistic MD’s who have natural and non drug methods. The CEO’s ignore this reality and LIE to cover all this up. Their main purpose is to inflate the stock price to get money for their salaries. Lying promotors, lying politicians, all the same.
Here’s Vivek Ramaswamy pushing his lousy company on Jim Cramer’s Mad Money:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=75MY4Rr47WM
Step right up ladies and gentlemen, one thin dime, one tenth of a dollar. This guy is slick and slippery. Cramer has a WTF look. Stay away of course.
At least Cramer shows lots of skepticism about this drug candidate, although he is being polite to Vivek. Why would Glaxo give away the rights to the drug for a measly $5 million? Vivek doesn’t answer Cramer’s question. Just like a politician who doesn’t take or answer questions. On IPO day, the stock reached a market cap of $2 BILLION. If the drug worked, Glaxo could market it better than Vivek’s small start up company, and turn $5 million into $5 BILLION. The drug increases acetylcholine levels in the brain, but so do many old established drugs like Aricept. These drugs help symptoms a little, but Cramer correctly says that they don’t do anything to prolong survival. Of course not, because they don’t address the root causes of the disease, which are environmental toxicity, nutritional and hormonal deficiencies, etc. Vivek deliberately evades these inconvenient truths.
NVTA up a bit today. No reason. I guess because its gone down for nine trading days. MM keeps saying $50 and I would be very happy with $5. Does anyone here believe a further reduction in cash burn and positive forward looking statements from Mr Dynamic (CEO) will finally move this stock?
it touched 60 – but we all waited for atleast 100 – MMs target then was 200
What’s up with MDNA today? It was up 25 percent at one point during the day then closed up 15 percent.
Why did APTO drop so much yesterday?
See whether you are convinced by YMB poster Carol J, who claims that APTO is going bust.
some glimmer of hope , hopefully …for this oldie :
Akebia Therapeutics Announces Positive Top-Line Results of Phase 4 IMPACT Study of Auryxia® (ferric citrate) for In-Center and Home Dialysis Patients
The new Radar Report for 6.29.23 is posted.