Dear New World Investor:

The third estimate of March quarter real GDP growth released yesterday showed a 1.6% annualized drop in economic growth, a bit worse than the 1.5% previously reported. The update primarily reflects a downward revision to personal consumption expenditures (consumers buying less) that was partly offset by an upward revision to private inventory investment (caused by consumers buying less and a drag on June quarter GDP as inventories are sold).

This morning, the Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow model reduced its June quarter forecast from +0.3% to -1.0% due mostly to weakness in both personal consumption expenditures growth and real gross private domestic investment growth. There will be another update tomorrow morning, but for now it looks like a recession may have started – earlier than I expected.

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We still could avoid the popular definition of a recession – two negative quarters in a row – but there’s no doubt the economy slowed sharply in June. May personal income grew 0.5%, as expected, but personal spending only grew 0.2%, half of expectations. People are battening down the hatches to be sure they can buy gasoline and food. The Flash Purchasing Managers Composite Output Index fell to 51.2, a five-month low. The US Services Business Activity Index fell to 51.6, also a five-month low. The US Manufacturing Index at 49.6 was a 24-month low. The Flash Purchasing Managers Index fell from 57.0 in May to 52.4 in June, a 23-month low. Anything above 50 means manufacturing is still expanding, but it’s a very slow pace as retailers cut back orders.

Backlogs of work fell in June for the first time in two years and business confidence had one of the sharpest drops in 10 years to the lowest level since September 2020. The four-week average of initial claims for unemployment has increased five weeks in a row to the highest level since January.

The good news is that this economic softness is slowing inflation quickly. The core Producer Price Index, core Consumer Price Index, and the Fed’s favorite inflation indicator, the core Personal Consumption Expenditures Index, have all rolled over for consecutive months. This morning’s May Core PCE Deflator was lower than expected at +4.7% year-over-year and +0.3% month-over-month versus the +0.4% estimate. The Fed’s target is +0.2% .It now has dropped for three consecutive months and is getting very close to “normal.”

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Many of the headline commodity and other prices are falling – DRAM memory, lumber, used cars, wheat (off 30% from the peak), cotton down from a decade-high peak, tin, copper, aluminum, and many others. Metals are set for their worst quarter since 2008 with the London Metals Exchange metals index down 23% since the end of March.

The preliminary University of Michigan June survey of longer-term US consumer inflation expectations final June reading was a 14-year high of 3.3%. Fed Chairman Powell freaked out that “unanchored” inflation expectations could set off an inflationary spiral. Last Friday, the final number was reported a little lower at 3.1%, sparking a stock market rally. Consumers are more concerned with saving to cover gas and food costs than spending to beat inflation.

Market Outlook

The investment industry works in quarterly timeframes. A lot of funds report their holdings to clients, especially mutual funds which are very detailed in their reporting. There’s no way to positively spin a stock that is down 80% this year, so the portfolio manager dumps it by quarter-end so that clients won’t see that they owned it. That selling should be cleaning up today, on the last day of the quarter.

Most hedge funds have quarterly liquidity. The redemption notice period is Q-30 or Q-45 days. The March quarter was a miss for most funds, and the June quarter is a bloodbath. Clients don’t allow two bad quarters. Redemption notices arrived in May and the stock selling to meet them has been going on all month. Of course, that now is sideline cash or new inflows to some other manager to be put to work. I think we get a few week reprieve on the selling starting tomorrow.

And thank you The New York Times for belaboring the obvious. “Some see,” hey?

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The S&P 500 lost only 0.3% since last Thursday but fell 8.4% in June. The Index is down 20.6% year-to-date, its worst first half since 1970. The Nasdaq Composite lost 2.1% as institutions dumped tech stocks and is down 29.5% for the year, its worst first half ever.

The small-cap Russell 2000 dropped only 0.2% and is down 23.9% in 2022. Small-cap valuations are near the all-time lows posted in the Great Financial Crises:

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The fractal dimension is moving towards the trend exhaustion level at 30 and will get there next week unless there is a big counter-trend rally.

This has been an especially frustrating market because indicators that have been reliable in the past haven’t worked. A strategy that holds 95% in the S&P 500 and 5% in S&P puts for protection has lost as much money as just holding the Index. Contrarian buying when sentiment is very negative hasn’t worked. The selloff is often interrupted by rallies like last Friday’s, which marked the 12^th time that the S&P 500 rose at least 2% in a single session. At this rate, 2022 is on course for the third-highest annual number of big up days since the 1930s. Happily, July is seasonally strong:

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Top 5 (or 6)

Changes this week: Added AGNPF and AAPL

Near-Term – chronological order
AGNPF Algernon Pharmaceuticals – chronic cough results
AAPL Apple – September new iPhone introduction
OIL iPath Pure Beta Crude Oil Exchange-Traded Note – crude should rise
GBTC Grayscale Bitcoin Trust – Bitcoin will come out of one of its periodic sharp drops
META Meta – Bounce from overdone selloff
VLD Velo3D – Rapid revenue growth; low market cap

Long-Term – alphabetical order
GRPH Graphite Bio – second-generation genetic editing
NVTA Invitae – the winner-take-most of genetic testing
META Meta – a leader in the metaverse
RKLB Rocket Lab – #2 to SpaceX in space
VLD Velo3D – Return manufacturing to the US

Virus Update

Worldometers now shows 552,136,496 worldwide confirmed infections, of which 535,865,974 have run their course. Of those, 527,508,997 recovered and 6,356,977 died – matching the last five week’s all-time low case fatality rate of 1.2%.

In the US, there have been 89,269,922 confirmed infections, of which 85,878,539 have run their course. Of those, 84,836,116 recovered and 1,042,423 died – the tenth week in a row at the all-time low case fatality rate of 1.2%.

Hospitalizations still are slowly increasing.

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Daily deaths have trended down to 265.

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Coming Events
All times below are ET, and most of the presentations and slides are archived on the companies’ websites so you can listen to them.

Monday, July 4
Markets Closed

via GIPHY

Friday, July 8
June Payrolls – 8:30am – +250,000 expected vs. +390,000 in May

The $20-For-$1 Stocks

Say you put $2,000 into a stock that goes from 50¢ a share to $10. The $2,000 turns into $40,000. Then you put the $40,000 into another stock that goes from 50¢ to $10. That turns the $40,000 into $800,000. You did it with two stocks, and never risked going negative more than $2,000. (Not that you won’t be mad at me if the first one works and then the second one doesn’t, taking your $40,000 to Money Heaven.)

If you can afford it – and it would not be too big a position in your portfolio – putting $2,000 into each of these 12 speculative biotechs might be a good way to start.

The market capitalizations of these recommendations typically are very low. At the same time, Initial Public Offering valuations had moved very high. We were seeing $750 million to $900 million valuations for a good preclinical/Phase 1 IPO, and even $300 million to $500 million for mediocre Phase 1s. I don’t see how investors make 5x to 10x in a reasonable, three- to four-year period if they buy at those valuations. How many biotechs have moved north of $10 billion within 5 years after pricing an IPO in the $700 million to $900 million range? Hardly any. Buying these out of favor, fallen, or forgotten companies that can get important products through the FDA at very low market capitalizations seems like a much better strategy to me.

Risks

Development-stage biotechs are subject to investor sentiment swings from wildly optimistic to excessively pessimistic – mostly the latter recently. After the Primary Risk for each company, I’ve added the clinical stage of their lead product, the probable time of their first FDA approval, and the probable time of their next financing.

As always, you need to think about an appropriate position size. You could buy a full position upfront and then just hold on, or buy some upfront and leave room to add more on the inevitable financings, transient clinical trial setbacks, and the like.

The iShares Biotechnology Exchange-Traded Fund (IBB) first bottomed at $106.46 a share on May 12. It bottomed again at $105.97 on June 13. Then, on June 16 it bottomed once more at $105.82. Since its peak at the end of August last year to the June 16 low, it plunged 40.3%. But it is up 11.1% since then.

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Algernon Pharmaceuticals (AGNPF – $2.91) priced 533,333 units (one share plus one five-year, $4.70 warrant) at $3.75, raising $2 million. The company can force conversion of the warrants if the stock trades for more than $14.10 for 20 consecutive days. AGNPF is a Hold for the chronic cough results.
Primary Risk: Ifenprodil fails in clinical trials.
   Clinical stage of lead product: Phase 2/3
   Probable time of first FDA approval: 2023
   Probable time of next financing: 2022

Inovio (INO – $1.73) appointed a new Chief Medical Officer with a solid track record. The the new BA.5 variant of omicron is likely to upend the COVID-19 vaccine business, providing Inovio a path forward to approval. INO is a Buy under $7 for a very long-term hold.
Primary Risk: Their drugs fail in the clinic.
   Clinical stage of lead product: Phase 3
   Probable time of first FDA approval: 2022
   Probable time of next financing: Not needed

Invitae (NVTA – $2.44) is providing the data driving the turning point in cancer as the genomics of the cancer matched with the appropriate therapy is leading to outcomes that are being described as “unheard-of” by expert oncologists.

The company is planning a Technology Day Investor Forum but hasn’t specified the date yet. Buy NVTA under $10 for a first target of $50 and eventually $100+ when they become the Amazon of genetic testing.
Primary Risk: A competitor starts taking significant market share.
   Clinical stage of lead product: NM
   Probable time of first FDA approval: NM
   Probable time of next financing: Not needed

Biotech & Digital Dominators MegaShift
There are at least four ways to make money in the stocks of these large, growing, dominant companies. You can:
* * Buy a stock and hold it
* * Buy a stock and write a call option against it
* * With a Level IV options account, write an out-of-the-money put option
* * With a Level IV options account, write an out-of-the-money put option and use part of the premium to buy an out-of-the-money call option

Apple (AAPL – $136.72) has pretty meaningfully outperformed in 14 of the last 15 years before iPhone launches, and there’s no reason to think this year will be any different.

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To be fair, the level of outperformance has dropped, but this is a big index weighting, and so even last year’s 9.1% hurts a portfolio manager who doesn’t own any. Given the recent selloff and a fairly conservative September quarter consensus estimate, this is an excellent time to Buy AAPL under $150 for new iPhone rollouts and augmented/virtual reality products.

Gilead Sciences (GILD – $61.81) got European approval for Yescarta, Kite’s CAR T-cell therapy for the treatment of adult patients with relapsed or refractory follicular lymphoma after three or more lines of systemic therapy. Yescarta has maintained orphan medicinal product designation in this indication.

The company also resubmitted its New Drug Application to the FDA for lenacapavir, an investigational, long-acting HIV-1 capsid inhibitor, for the treatment of HIV-1 infection in heavily treatment-experienced people with multi-drug resistant HIV-1 infection. The FDA gave them a Complete Response Letter in February that cited issues relating to the compatibility of lenacapavir in borosilicate vials. The NDA resubmission supports the compatibility of lenacapavir with an alternative vial type made from aluminosilicate glass. Lenacapavir will be the first and only HIV-1 treatment option administered twice-yearly.

There’s a worthwhile article on SeekingAlpha: Gilead’s Future In 3 Molecules. GILD is a Long-Term Buy under $70 for a first target of $100.

Meta Platforms (now META – $161.25) got a target price cut from $275 to $225 by JPMorgan, but is META now a value stock? META is a Buy under $250 for a $400 target in 2023 or 2024.

SoftBank (SFTBY – $19.28) will take ARM Holdings public and list it on Nasdaq. You can watch the 2 1/2-hour shareholders meeting HERE. SFTBY is a Buy under $25 for a first target of $50 in the next two years.

Other Tech

Rocket Lab USA (RKLB – $3.79) had a very successful moon launch for the Capstone project and just successfully ignited the Photon Lunar spacecraft’s HyperCurie engine for the fifth time, propelling Capstone and Photon deeper into space. They have passed the half-way point of the mission’s second phase with Photon.

At the end of this mission phase, Photon will accelerate to more than 24,500 mph to break free of Earth’s orbit and deploy Capstone on a ballistic lunar transfer trajectory to the Moon. In the coming days, there will be a final HyperCurie engine ignition on Photon to help set Capstone on its course to the Moon. RKLB is a Buy up to $13 for my $30+ target as low earth orbit satellites and space exploration grow.
Primary Risk: A new competitor emerges.
   Probable time of next financing: None needed

Velo3D (VLD – $1.38) sold a Sapphire XC to Knust-Godwin, a precision contract manufacturer and owner of five other Sapphire systems. The Sapphire XC lowers production costs by up to 75% and produce parts that are 500% larger in volume compared to the standard Sapphire system. Knust-Godwin is the first of Velo3D’s network of contract manufacturers to receive a Sapphire XC. I am very encouraged by all the repeat orders Velo gets – these things work. VLD is a Buy up to $6 for my $50 target as Velo3D’s high-tolerance metal parts printing business grows.
Primary Risk:A new 3D metal printing competitor emerges.
   Probable time of next financing: None needed

Inflation MegaShift

Gold ($1,808.00) can’t seem to get above the 38.2% retracement level at $1,843, but also won’t be pushed under $1,800 for long. The fractal energy continues to build and build to drive a very big up-leg.

Cryptocurrencies
Cryptocurrencies are a diversifying asset that offer a unique opportunity to make (or lose!) a lot of money quickly. You can easily buy Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies at Coinbase, Block, or Robinhood.

Bitcoin (BTC-USD on Yahoo – $19,006.53) dropped in last Saturday’s daisy-chained margin calls and liquidations, bounced 20% from the lows as Michael Saylor announced he bought another 480 coins for $10 million, and then was pasted today after the SEC turned down the Grayscale Bitcoin Trust’s request to convert to an exchange-traded fund (see below).

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JP Morgan’s bitcoin price prediction is $130,000. Citibank’s prediction is $318,000. Guggenheim’s is $600,000. BTC-USD, ETH-USD, GBTC and ETHE are Strong Buys.
Primary Risk: Bitcoin falls due to over-regulation or is surpassed by another cryptocurrency.

Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC- $12.06) filed a petition for review with the US Court of Appeals for the District of Columbia Circuit, challenging the decision by the SEC to deny conversion of the Trust to a spot bitcoin exchange-traded fund. Their lead lawyer is Donald B. Verrilli, Jr, their Senior Legal Strategist, former US Solicitor General, and partner at Munger, Tolles & Olson.

Good. This still is the best and easiest way to buy bitcoin – at a discount, no less. GBTC is a Buy under net asset value.
Primary Risk:Bitcoin falls due to over-regulation or is surpassed by another cryptocurrency.

International & Other Recommendations
It is important to hold some non-US assets, especially in China. Since April, the Shanghai Composite Index is up about 17% while the S&P 500 is down about 10%. The Chinese tightened early and are loosening first, with direct support for the economy driving stocks higher.

EMQQ Emerging Markets Internet & Ecommerce ETF (EMQQ – $32.33) is a Buy under $38 for a $66 target in 12 to 18 months.
Primary Risk: China falls into a recession.

KraneShares Bosera MSCI China A Share Fund (KBA – $38.81) is a Buy under $40 for a three- to five-year hold.
Primary Risk: China falls into a recession.

Morgan Stanley China A-Share Closed-End Fund (CAF – $16.93) is a Buy under $18 for a three- to five-year hold.
Primary Risk: China falls into a recession.

KraneShares CSI China Internet Exchange-Traded Fund (KWEB – $32.76) is a Buy under $40 for a double over the next three years.
Primary Risk: China falls into a recession.

Oil – $106.01 (Its first monthly decline since November 2021)

As everyone (possibly even President Biden) expected, the 23-nation OPEC+ group led by Saudi Arabia rubber-stamped plans to add 648,000 barrels a day in August, restoring the final tranche of the 9.7 million barrels a day that was shuttered just over two years ago. The key moment will come on August 3, when it meets again and needs to agree on a new production level for September.

But with most members besides the Saudis and their neighbors unable to raise output, the decision is largely symbolic. The August OPEC+ production quota for Saudi Arabia is 11.004 million barrels per day. In its whole history, the kingdom has only produced at that level for a grand total of eight weeks.

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Leading to lower than expected OPEC+ exports:

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US drillers are resorting to “re-fracs” as a cheap way to raise output without investing too much capital in a world that seems hell-bent on getting away from fossil fuels. A re-frac can be up to 40% cheaper than a new well, according to experts. More importantly, it can double or triple oil flows from aging wells, at least for a while. In the last six weeks, US production increased 500,000 barrels a day while US demand fell about a million barrels a day. Crack spreads are still very high but below their tops. Current gas and diesel prices are the equivalent of $135 to $150 a barrel oil with normal crack spreads.

Oil probably is headed over $130, but as crack spreads ease from $53 today to $35 or so, the price of gasoline can come down even as oil goes up. Demand destruction is finally here:

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All things considered, this is a great scenario for energy stocks. A price band between $115 to $135 is phenomenal for cash flow generation. The Strategic Petroleum Reserve is at a record low with 27 days of supplies, below the 500 million gallon mark for the first time since 1986. The Department of Energy revealed plans to replenish emergency stocks by repurchasing 60 million barrels of oil, or one-third of the six-month 180-million-barrel emergency release. That will pressure oil prices up.

AAA says gas prices have started falling. Gasoline is trading under its 50-day moving average for the first time since December.

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I still think oil is headed for $300 in 2026, but there’s only about another 25% in the short term. Still, the July 2026 Crude Oil Futures (CLN26.NYM – $53.16) are a Buy under $55 for a $200+ target.

The iPath Pure Beta Crude Oil Exchange-Traded Note (OIL – $34.30) remains a Buy under $36 for an $80+ target eventually, but we’ll trade it if we see $130+ oil in the near-term.

Energy Fuels (UUUU – $4.91) is well-positioned. In uranium, for the first time in history the International Energy Agency has released a report praising nuclear energy as “essential’ to delivering a clean, affordable, and secure energy future with recommendations to extend, reward, and accelerate new nuclear builds.

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In rare earths, Chinese agents pretending to be concerned Texans executed an online disinformation campaign against a company building a rare earth minerals facility in Texas for the Department of Defense, the cybersecurity firm Mandiant revealed on Tuesday. The Pentagon later released a statement confirming Mandiant’s findings.

Mandiant found that agents for a pro-China disinformation campaign used fake social media accounts to cast doubt on Lynas Rare Earth Ltd. and other mining firms in an effort to weaken the rare earth minerals supply chain in the United States and elsewhere. The natural reaction will be to support US rare earth companies like Energy Focus. UUUU is a buy under $8 for a $30 target.
Primary Risk: Uranium prices fall.

* * * * *

Click for larger graphic From https://www.zerohedge.com/medical/visualizing-elemental-composition-human-body

* * * * *

Your watching Artificial Intelligence trends Editor,

Michael Murphy CFA
Founding Editor
New World Investor

All Recommendations

Check out the complete Portfolio page HERE.

Buys
These are the stocks everyone needs to own because transformative events are happening over the next year or two, and I expect to hold them long-term.

$20-for-$1
  Aptose Biosciences (APTO – $0.74) – Buy under $2.50, ultimate target $30
  Bellerophon Therapeutics (BLPH – $1.23) – Buy under $5, first target $30, then $100
  Compass Pathways (CMPS – $10.82) – Buy under $20, hold a long time for a 10x return
  Graphite Bio (GRPH – $2.75) – Buy under $9, hold a long time
  Inovio (INO – $1.73) – Buy under $7, hold a long time
  Invitae (NVTA – $2.44) – Buy under $10, first target $50, then $100+
  Medicenna (MDNA – $1.16) – Buy under $3, first target $20, then maybe $40
  ScyNexis (SCYX – $1.86) – Buy under $2, target price $20, then $50

Other Biotech
  TG Therapeutics (TGTX – $4.25) – Buy under $7, target price $25+

Tech Dominators
  Apple Computer (AAPL – $136.72) – Buy under $150 for new iPhones
  Corning (GLW – $31.51) – Buy under $33, target price $60
  Gilead Sciences (GILD – $61.81) – Buy under $70, target price $100
  Meta (FB – $161.25) – Buy under $250, target price $400
  SoftBank (SFTBY – $19.28) – Buy under $25, target price $50

Other Tech
  First Trust NASDAQ Cybersecurity ETF (CIBR – $40.24) – Buy under $40; 3- to 5-year hold
  Fastly (FSLY – $11.61) – Buy under $20; 2- to 5-year hold to $80+
  PagerDuty (PD – $24.78) – Buy under $30; 2- to 5-year hold
  QuickLogic (QUIK – $8.48) – Buy under $10, target price $40
  Liberty Media Acquisition Corporation (LMACA – $9.84) – Buy under $10, target price $20 to $30
  Rocket Lab (RKLB – $3.79) – Buy under $13, target price $30+
  Velo3D (VLD – $1.38) – Buy under $6, target price $50

Inflation
  A Short-Sale or REO House – $447,000 – Buy while fixed mortgage rates are low
  Bag of Junk Silver – $20.20 – hold through silver bull market
  Sprott Gold Miners ETF (SGDM – $24.30) – Buy under $28, target price $50
  Sprott Junior Gold Miners ETF (SGDJ – $28.11) – Buy under $39, target price $100
  Sprott Physical Gold and Silver Trust (CEF – $16.82) – Buy under $18, target price $30
  Global X Silver Miners ETF (SIL – $25.90) – Buy under $30, target price $50
  Coeur Mining (CDE – $3.04) – Buy under $5, target price $20
  First Majestic Mining (AG – $7.18) – Buy under $11, next target price $23
  Paramount Gold Nevada (PZG – $0.44) – Buy under $1, first target price $10
  Sandstorm Gold (SAND – $5.95) – Buy under $10, target price $25
  Sprott Inc. (SII – $34.66) – Buy under $40, target price $70

Cryptocurrencies
  Bitcoin (BTC-USD – $19,006.53) – Buy
  Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC – $12.06) – Buy
  Ethereum (ETH-USD – $1,094.32) – Buy
  Grayscale Ethereum Trust (ETHE – $7.06) – Buy

International & Other Recommendations
  EMQQ Emerging Markets Internet & Ecommerce ETF (EMQQ – $32.33) – Buy under $38 for a $66 target in 12 to 18 months
  KraneShares Bosera MSCI China A Share Fund (KBA – $38.81) – Buy under $40 for a three- to five-year hold
  Morgan Stanley China A-Shares Fund (CAF – $16.93) – Buy under $18 for a three- to five-year hold
  KraneShares CSI China Internet ETF (KWEB – $32.76) – Buy under $40 for a double over the next three years
  Acreage Holdings (ACRDF – $0.99) – Buy under $2 for the Canopy Growth merger
  Mongolia Growth Group (MNGGF – $1.28) – Buy under $1.30; long-term hold

Energy
  Crude Oil Futures – July 2026 (CLN26.NYM – $53.16) – Buy under $55; $200+ target
  iPath Pure Beta Crude Oil Exchange-Traded Note (OIL – $34.30) – Buy under $36; $80+ target
  Energy Fuels (UUUU – $4.91) – Buy under $8; $30 target

Holds
These are holds but not sells – yet. They could get moved back to one of the buy categories if their prices drop or outlook improves, or they could become sell recommendations in the future.
  Algernon Pharmaceuticals (AGNPF – $2.91) – Hold for chronic cough results
  Akebia Biotherapeutics (AKBA – $0.35) – Hold for FDA meeting
  Arch Therapeutics (ARTH – $0.05) – Hold for buyout
  CohBar (CWBR – $0.19) – Hold for human trials of CB5138-3

Publisher: GwynRose LLC, 5348 Vegas Drive, Suite 868, Las Vegas, NV 89108

New World Investor does not act as a personal investment adviser or advocate the purchase or sale of any security or investment for any specific individual. The recommendations and analysis presented to members are for the exclusive use of members. Members should be aware that investment markets have inherent risks and there can be no guarantee of future profits. Likewise, past performance does not assure future results. Recommendations are subject to change at any time. Nothing in this presentation should be considered personalized investment advice. No communication to you by Michael Murphy or any of our employees or contractors should be deemed as personalized investment advice.

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