Radar Report – 9.14.23

Michael Murphy
Sep 23

Dear New World Investor:

The August Consumer Price Index rose 3.7% year-over-year (YOY), driven by gasoline prices that accounted for over half of the increase. That was faster than July’s 3.2% but far below the 40-year high of 9.1% in June 2022. It was the second straight increase after 12 consecutive declines in annual inflation. Shelter, including rents, jumped 7.3% over the last 12 months but it was still softer than July’s 7.7% gain. As you know, this reflects the situation six to nine months ago. Shelter has been up for 40 consecutive months but will be falling for months to come.

The month-over-month (MOM) headline increase was 0.6%. That followed a 0.2% rise in July and marked the biggest jump in more than a year. The chief culprit again was the surge in gasoline.

The core inflation rate, excluding the volatile food and energy sectors, rose 4.3% YOY, down from July’s 4.7% and the smallest gain since September 2021. With real-time rent data instead of the flawed Bureau of Labor Statistics measure, the core CPI YOY was +1.8% – and the Fed knows it.

The MOM core rate was 0.3%, a bit above July’s 0.2% advance. The top contributors were all energy: (1) gasoline, (2) airline fuel, and (3) airfares.

Click for larger graphic

BofA pointed out that investors love cash and are still piling into money market funds for a risk-free rate of 5% rather than putting their money at risk by buying stocks or long-duration bonds. Net assets of all money market funds hit a record $5.625 trillion last week. Goldman Sachs said: “Global Money Market Funds have seen +$1.0 Trillion worth of YTD inflows. This is the second largest year of inflows on record, only Covid times saw larger inflows (~$1.118 Trillion).”

Click for larger graphic

BofA said: “A mountain of money can provide fuel for a year-end rally. Cash at 5% lags the year-to-date S&P 500 return of 16.9%. Since the S&P 500 can continue [to] thrive after solid returns for [the] first half and a strong year-to-date rally through August, it would not surprise us to see investors put cash to work and fuel a rally into yearend.”

I think the rally is highly likely, but more likely to be fueled by institutional cash and hedge funds than retail investors. We’ll see. BofA also pointed out that the Bloomberg US Corporate High Yield Average Option-Adjusted Spread (OAS) hit a new year-to-date low earlier this month, meaning that bond investors are growing more comfortable buying risky debts. That’s a leading indicator for the stock market. The high-yield OAS is at about 3.7, which is near its lowest level since early 2022. They wrote: “We view this as a risk-on bullish leading indicator that favors eventual new year-to-date highs on the S&P 500. Constructive credit markets entering September support the case for the bullish seasonality scenarios that we have highlighted.”

Market Outlook

The S&P 500 added 1.2% since last Thursday and is almost flat for September, which usually is the worst month of the year. The Index is up 17.3% year-to-date. The Nasdaq Composite gained 1.3%, mirroring the S&P. It is up 33.1% for the year, nearly double the S&P.

The small-cap Russell 2000 was up only 0.5% and is up only 5.9% in 2023. We are 11 months off the S&P 500’s October 2022 low and only 39% of Russell 2000 members are trading above their 200-day moving average. Back when we were 11 months off the 2020 low, over 90% of the Russell were trading above their 200-day moving average.

Click for larger graphic h/t @LizAnnSonders

The fractal dimension is getting close to fully consolidated. The second half of September often is weak, which would fully consolidate it.

Top 5

Changes this week: None

Near-Term – chronological order
TGTX TG Therapeutics – Rapid recovery from overdone pullback
EQT EQT –natural gas price rebound
USL United States 12 Month Oil Fund, LP – crude should rise quickly
FCX Freeport McMoRan – copper shortage this fall
SFTBY SoftBank – for ARM IPO valuation
AKBA Akebia – Vadadustat NDA filing 2023; approval 2024
VLD Velo3D – Rapid revenue growth; low market cap

Long-Term – alphabetical order
EQT EQT – largest US natural gas company
GBTC Grayscale Bitcoin Trust – Bitcoin is headed for $100,000
NVTA Invitae – the winner-take-most of genetic testing
META Meta – a (the?) leader in the metaverse
RKLB Rocket Lab – #2 to SpaceX in space
SCYX ScyNexis –First new antifungal in 20 years
VLD Velo3D – Return manufacturing to the US


The Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow model forecast for September quarter real GDP slipped this morning to +4.9% due to lower estimates for personal consumption expenditures growth, gross private domestic investment growth, and government spending growth. The Blue Chip economists are up to +2.95%, so it looks like a strong quarter for sure.

Click for larger graphic

Coming Events
All times below are ET, and most presentations and slides are archived on the companies’ websites so you can listen to them.

Monday, September 18
AG – First Majestic – Through 9/20 – Gold Forum Americas

Wednesday, September 20
Fed meeting results – 2:00pm press release; 2:30 press conference

Saturday, September 23
Autumnal equinox – 2:50am


Big Tech: The Biotech & Digital Dominators MegaShift
There are at least four ways to make money in the stocks of these large, growing, dominant companies. You can:
* * Buy a stock and hold it
* * Buy a stock and write a call option against it
* * With a Level IV options account, write an out-of-the-money put option
* * With a Level IV options account, write an out-of-the-money put option and use part of the premium to buy an out-of-the-money call option

Apple (AAPL – $175.74) introduced the iPhone 15 ($799), 15 Plus ($899), 15 Pro ($999), and 15 Pro Max with a titanium shell and 5x zoom that will set you back $1,199. Also some new features on Apple Watch 9 and a second generation of AirPods Pro. New Siri health interactions allow users to log sleep, weight, and other health markers.

The new iPhones now support high-end PC and console games — which has never been achieved in top-of-the-line smartphones before. It will be interesting to see if gamers can be wooed away from their desktops. AAPL is a Buy under $150 for new iPhone rollouts and augmented/virtual reality products.

Gilead Sciences (GILD – $77.36) did a fireside chat at the Morgan Stanley Global Healthcare Conference (TRANSCRIPT HERE). CEO Dan O”Day said they’ve had seven consecutive quarters of strong growth, excluding Veklury, and are doing 21 Phase 3 trials at once. He said: “We’re very confident about our ability to meet our target of more than a third of our revenue coming from our oncology business by 2030.”

He added an interesting point: “We don’t talk about that much, but Andy and the team have built up a really interesting early inflammation portfolio too, both within our own research and externally. And that’s kind of the third leg of the transformation journey that will come in the 2030s. But we think in generations, kind of in terms of how we’re going to approach the portfolio and how we expand that out and so that will continue to be very interesting, coming across for all of the oncology and inflammation.”

CFO Andy Dickinson added: “We are still a very small company relative to many of our peers. We have less than 20,000 employees globally. We are agile, and there’s a lot of room in the model. So when you drive the top-line growth that we’ve seen and that we expect to kind of increase over time and the expense discipline, you’re going to see a lot of that fall to the bottom line.”

BoA upgraded the stock from Neutral to Buy and raised their target price from $88 to $95. GILD is a Long-Term Buy under $80 for a first target of $120.

Meta Platforms (META – $311.72) is developing a new artificial intelligence system that should be as powerful as OpenAI’s most advanced model, The Wall Street Journal reported, citing sources familiar with the matter. Meta is aiming for its new system, which should be several times more powerful than the one it released over the summer, to be ready next year, the report said, adding that it is intended to help other companies offer AI-driven text, analysis, and other services. The group is building data centers and acquiring the necessary advanced chips to train AI from Nvidia.

Morgan Stanley rates Meta as Overweight with a $375 target price. They project earnings of $20 a share by 2024, saying that Facebook Reels has untapped revenue opportunities. That’s substantially higher than Wall Street estimates of $16.85 a share for 2024. They added the average revenue per user for Reels is about 28% the rate of other average Meta engagement, which speaks to the Reels revenue opportunity yet to come. They said: “The fact that Reels engagement is driving incremental time spent on the platform…gives more confidence in Reels ability to drive Meta’s ad revenue.” META is a Buy under $150 for a $400 target in 2024.

SoftBank (SFTBY – $22.85) engineered a very successful ARM plc initial public offering today. They priced the deal at the high end of their $47 to $51 range, raised $4.87 billion, and were 10x oversubscribed. It opened at $56.10 and closed at $63.59, a nice 24.7% one-day pop for those who got stock, including major ARM clients like Apple, Nvidia, Alphabet, Advanced Micro Devices, Intel, Samsung, and Taiwan Semiconductor.

Softbank pocketed about $4.77 billion and still owns 90.6% of the company, sharply increasing its net asset value. Its stock price will follow. SFTBY is a Buy under $25 for a first target of $50 in the next two years.

Small Tech

Enovix (ENVX – $15.00) did a fireside chat at the Morgan Stanley Laguna Conference today (AUDIO HERE). The company is shipping batteries for revenue today. They said they are compatible with solid state battery technology and are in talks or cooperative ventures.

Demand is stronger than they expected for larger batteries, so their ability to make them at scale is what investors should be watching. They had $409 million in cash at the end of June and are on track to burn $100 million from operations and $70 million from capital investment in 2023. That will go up in 2024.

If you want to go deep in the weeds, they started their Journey to Scale podcast with COO Ajay Marathe describing their Path to High-Volume Manufacturing Next-Gen Batteries (39 intense minutes). ENVX is a Buy up to $20 for a 4-year hold to $100+ as their BrakeFlow lithium-ion battery takes market share.
Primary Risk: A new competitor invents a better battery.

Fastly (FSLY – $21.62) did a fireside presentation yesterday at the Piper Sandler Growth Frontiers Conference (AUDIO HERE and TRANSCRIPT HERE). They are using AI internally to route customer traffic in the most efficient way to meet their latency requirements. They said streaming video is just the tip of the iceberg in terms of customer requirements. Security is becoming a major revenue driver.

They are still digesting the Signal Sciences acquisition and don’t feel the need to do another strategic acquisition. FSLY is a Buy up to $20 for a 2- to 5-year hold to $80+ as Compute@Edge drives customer acquisition and revenue growth.
Primary Risk:Content and applications delivery networks are a competitive area.

QuickLogic (QUIK – $8.74) presented at the H. C. Wainwright Global Investment Conference (SLIDES HERE). It was the standard presentation.

Click for larger graphic

They have a $1+ billion served available market in aerospace, defense, industrial and consumer Internet of Things, AI/ML, and security. They now have a top-shelf customer list:

Click for larger graphic

QUIK is a Buy up to $10 for my $40 target as their sensor hub is widely adopted in smartphones, tablets and wearables.
Primary Risk: New sensor hub competitor emerges.

Rocket Lab USA (RKLB – $5.26) also did a fireside chat at the Morgan Stanley Laguna Conference (AUDIO HERE). They said a lot of “aspirational” rocket companies have had launch failures or gone bankrupt, improving dedicated low-earth orbit launch prices.

Reusing the nine Rutherford engines and the maritime or helicopter recoveries of stages of the rocket will significantly reduce their costs.

Last June, Rocket Lab used their Hypersonic Accelerator Suborbital Test Electron, or HASTE, launch vehicle to launch a satellite for Leidos (LDOS). This week they signed a contract with Leidos to launch four more missions using HASTE in 2024 and 2025.

The stock slipped Tuesday after CEO Peter Beck filed to sell 3.6 million shares or $22.3 million of his stock. I do not mind successful founders reaping some of their reward. RKLB is a Buy up to $13 for my $30+ target as low earth orbit satellites and space exploration grow.
Primary Risk: A new competitor emerges.

Velo3D (VLD – $1.63) appointed a new EVP: Global Sales and Business Development with more than 20 years of experience in technology sales and bringing transformative technologies to market. VLD is a Buy up to $6 for my $50 target as Velo3D’s high-tolerance metal parts printing business grows.
Primary Risk:A new 3D metal printing competitor emerges.

Biotech MegaShift: The $20-For-$1 Stocks

Say you put $2,000 into a stock that goes from 50¢ a share to $10. The $2,000 turns into $40,000. Then you put the $40,000 into another stock that goes from 50¢ to $10. That turns the $40,000 into $800,000. You did it with two stocks and never risked going negative more than $2,000. (Not that you won’t be mad at me if the first one works and then the second one doesn’t, taking your $40,000 to Money Heaven.)

If you can afford it – and it would not be too big a position in your portfolio – putting $2,000 into each of these speculative biotechs might be a good way to start. Buying these out-of-favor, fallen, or forgotten companies that can get important products through the FDA at very low market capitalizations seems like a good strategy to me.


Development-stage biotechs are subject to investor sentiment swings from wildly optimistic to excessively pessimistic – mostly the latter recently. After the Primary Risk for each company, I’ve added the clinical stage of their lead product, the probable time of their first FDA approval, and the probable time of their next financing.

As always, you need to think about an appropriate position size. You could buy a full position upfront and then just hold on, or buy some upfront and leave room to add more on the inevitable financings, transient clinical trial setbacks, and the like.

Akebia Therapeutics (AKBA- $1.26) presented at the H. C. Wainwright Global Investment Conference (henceforth known as HCW) (ZOOM HERE). It was just a repeat of recent presentations, but it is amazing what a layup this investment is at a current total market capitalization of only $250 million. They’ll refile the New Drug Application for vadadustat in the next three weeks, which will move the stock up. Then, in October, the FDA will accept it with a March approval date, giving the stock another bump. Then, before yearend, Medice will launch in Europe, and both Australia and Taiwan will approve it. More bumps up.

Click for larger graphic

Then the FDA will approve it in March and they’ll do a soft launch while they apply for TDAPA approval. About September they’ll get TDAPA approval and do a commercial launch, including through CSL Vifor to the Fresenius and other chains of dialysis clinics covering 60% of all dialysis patients. Akebia keeps 2/3 of the profits. With the TDAPA approval, the chains will be fully reimbursed for vadadustat and not have to buy ESA drugs, increasing their profits. It’s an easy sale. And a big market:

Click for larger graphic

Akebia has a full inventory of vadadustat and the 25 Auryxia account managers for the launch. Their patents extend to at least 2032. And they have a pipeline for further growth.

Click for larger graphic
Click for larger graphic

They are funded through the next 12 months. Buy AKBA up to $2 for the vadadustat launches in the EU, UK, and (after FDA approval in March 2024) the US.

Primary Risk: Vadadustat not approved in the US.
   Clinical stage of lead product: Vadadustat NDA to be refiled by 9/30/23
   Probable time of next FDA approval: March 2024
   Probable time of next financing: Late 2024 or never

Aptose Biosciences (APTO – $3.35) gave an outstanding presentation at HCW (ZOOM HERE and SLIDES HERE). They started with their investment highlights – note that the tuspetinib/venetoclax combination “Presents accelerated approval path for TUS/VEN in R/R AML” (relapsed/refractory acute myeloid leukemia).

Click for larger graphic
Click for larger graphic

Early data showed a 50% response rate to the TUS/VEN doublet. We’ll get an update in October.

Click for larger graphic

They are moving directly into a registrational trial.

Click for larger graphic

They see a path to $2.5 billion in tuspetinib sales by 2035. In the immediate future we will see “value-driving clinical milestones” and they are “Advancing partnering discussions” (!!!) (AbbVie owns venetoclax; Genentech (Roche) co-markets it in the US.)

Click for larger graphic

I have long said the CEO Bill Rice is the best drug developer I know. Wall Street hates his slow, methodical pace, and now they are going to learn about the payoff: An approved drug without a brutally expensive Phase 3 trial. Buckle up, cowpokes! APTO is a Buy under $2.50 for a $30 target in a buyout.
Primary Risk: Either drug fails in clinical trials.
   Clinical stage of lead product: Phase 2
   Probable time of first FDA approval: 2025
   Probable time of next financing: Late 2025

Arch Therapeutics (ARTH – $2.00) rallied after they did a private placement as a bridge offering prior to uplisting. They raised $2.6 million selling units of one share plus two warrants at 27.5¢ each. Investors have a one-year lockup unless they elect to participate in an anticipated near-term financing related to the planned uplisting in an amount at least 4.3x greater than their investment in the Bridge Offering.

CEO Terry Norchi said that since the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services established A2020, a Level II Healthcare Common Procedure Coding System (HCPCS) code dedicated to AC5, both orders and payments for submitted claims have accelerated. Since the April 1 effective date of A2020, average monthly order volume for AC5 has increased over 4x when compared to average monthly order volume from the first calendar quarter. They have gotten reimbursement through paid claims in various regions of the country.

Norchi said: “While…total revenue remains modest relative to our long-term expectations, the increase in order volume, reimbursement trends, and the number of providers using AC5 in their respective practice settings exceeds management’s internal targets for this point in the process.”

ARTH is a Hold for a buyout after the reverse split, financing, and uplisting.
Primary Risk: AC5 fails to sell or the internal trial fails.
   Clinical stage of lead product: External approved. Internal trial 2024
   Probable time of first FDA approval: External done. Internal 2025
   Probable time of next financing: December 2023 quarter

Compass Pathways (CMPS – $9.92) did a good fireside chat at HCW (ZOOM HERE). Treatment-resistant depression is an unmet medical need, and Compass was just able to raise $125 million upfront and another potential $165 million from three-year warrants. The two Phase 3 trials of COMP360 are underway. One reads out in the summer of 2024 and the other in summer 2025.

They should file for approval at the end of 2025 or early 2026 and get approval at the end of 2026. In the meantime, they are focused on defining what treatment centers will look like, getting reimbursement codes, and arranging with payers for reimbursement for psychiatrists. CMPS is a Buy under $20 for a very long-term hold to a 10x.
Primary Risk: Their drugs fail in the clinic.
   Clinical stage of lead product: Phase 2
   Probable time of first FDA approval: 2025
   Probable time of next financing: Late 2025

Inovio (INO – $0.43) also presented at HCW (SLIDES HERE and TRANSCRIPT HERE). The new CEO said she has hired world-class leaders in regulatory, medical, and R&D to bring products to market. They are focused on fewer programs:

Click for larger graphic

The INO-3107 pivotal trial for recurrent respiratory papillomatosis starts in the March 2024 quarter. It has Breakthrough Therapy designation from the FDA and Orphan Drug Designation in both the US and Europe.

Click for larger graphic
Click for larger graphic

There is a deep pipeline, some of which is on the shelf pending outside funding of further trials.

Click for larger graphic

They had $194.9 million in cash at the end of June, enough to carry them into the September 2025 quarter. INO is a Buy under $7 for a very long-term hold.
Primary Risk: Their drugs fail in the clinic.
   Clinical stage of lead product: Phase 3
   Probable time of first FDA approval: 2024
   Probable time of next financing: 2025

ScyNexis (SCYX – $3.39) presented at HCW (ZOOM HERE and SLIDES HERE ). Management reviewed the slow development of antifungals.

Click for larger graphic
Click for larger graphic

With ibrexafungerp licensed to Glaxo SmithKline, ScyNexis is focused on SCY-237.

Click for larger graphic
Click for larger graphic

They’ll file the SCY-247 Investigational New Drug application in the second half of 2024 to begin human clinical trials. At this point, ScyNexis looks like a sure winner with solid financials and the newest antifungal for the next many years. Buy SCYX under $2.50 for a first target price of $20 after ibrexafungerp is approved for hospital use and a buyout at $50.
Primary Risk: Ibrexafungerp fails to sell.
   Clinical stage of lead product: Approved
   Probable time of next FDA approval: 2023/2024
   Probable time of next financing: Never

TG Therapeutics (TGTX – $10.19) dipped last Friday after Cantor Fitzgerald said that September sales for Briumvi, their multiple sclerosis therapy, needed to be strong to meet consensus estimates. Citing data from Symphony Health, Cantor said Briumvi sales for August reached $7.2 million, up from $5.9 million in July, so to hit the $27 million consensus for the third quarter, “September will need to be a strong month” to meet expectations.

The CEO did a fireside presentation at HCW (ZOOM HERE). Michael Weiss said that when Briumvi launched, the consensus for the March quarter was $4 million in sales, then $10 million, $20 million , and $30 million for the following quarters. They beat that consensus for the first and second quarters, and he expects to beat it in the September and December quarters.

But along the way, some analysts (looking at you, Cantor!) boosted their estimates, possibly to make the company look bad when they “missed.” The third-party data like Symphony only capture part of the subscription revenues. TG probably will stop cooperating with Symphony. He said they are very happy with the revenue growth.

Their partner will launch in Europe early next year, generating a $12.5 million milestone payment. With the $140 million they got upfront, they have $205 million in cash today. They do not have to raise money. Buy under $12 for a target price in a buyout of $30 or more.
Primary Risk:Briumvi, the MS drug, fails to sell.
   Clinical stage of lead product: Approved
   Probable time of next FDA approval: NM
   Probable time of next financing:Never

Inflation MegaShift

Gold ($1,931.00) continues to hang around the $1,950 magnet, in spite of the pressure from increasing Treasury yields and the strong dollar. Central banks bought 228.4 tons of gold in the March quarter and about 100 more tons in the June period.

JPMorgan said as central banks pile up gold reserves, investors are also accumulating the precious metal. The bank estimates gold accumulation to be at the highest level since 2012. They wrote: “In other words, investors’ allocation to gold looks rather high by historical standards at the moment and one needs to assume a structural increase in central bank demand beyond historical norms (due to fear of sanctions or general diversification away from G7 government bonds) to be bullish on gold.”

I think both the fear of sanctions and a strong desire to get away from G7 government bonds as Europe implodes will put gold at new highs. Since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, foreign central banks have added to their gold reserves in an effort to be less dependent on the US dollar. The greenback’s weaponization against Russia served as a warning to other countries with large exposures to the dollar.

The fractal dimension is almost fully consolidated. Another week around $1,950 should do it.


Cryptocurrencies are a diversifying asset that offer a unique opportunity to make (or lose!) a lot of money quickly. You can easily buy bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies at Coinbase, Block, or Robinhood.

Bitcoin (BTC-USD on Yahoo – $26,605.10) found a bottom after companies that hold cryptocurrency were delivered a long-awaited win on Wednesday after the Financial Accounting Standards Board voted through a key change to how digital assets are valued that has the potential to accelerate institutional adoption.

Under current accounting rules, companies record crypto investments as “intangible assets” and are required to write down their value if the price drops below the purchase price. But gains can only be recorded if the assets are sold.

Under the new rules, companies will report these assets on a fair value basis, writing them up as their value increases. The new rules take effect for fiscal years beginning after December 15, 2024. Berenberg wrote: “The change should help MicroStrategy and other companies that hold digital assets to eliminate the poor optics that have been created by impairment losses under the rules that FASB has had in place.”

Click for larger graphic

BTC-USD, ETH-USD, GBTC, and ETHE are Strong Buys.
Primary Risk: Bitcoin falls due to over-regulation or is surpassed by another cryptocurrency.

Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC- $19.46) will jump when a spot bitcoin exchange-traded fund is approved, which former SEC Chairman Jay Clayton said is inevitable, adding “The dichotomy between a futures product and cash product can’t go on forever.” GBTC is a Buy under net asset value.
Primary Risk: Bitcoin falls due to over-regulation or is surpassed by another cryptocurrency.


Oil – $90.61

Today oil hit $90 a barrel for the first time since November 2022, up more than 35% over the past three months. Both oil and gasoline are now higher year-over-year. Unless the Fed hikes rates far higher than expectations, or President Biden empties every last drop of oil from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve, oil could hit $150 by election day. There are less than 40 days of oil inventories in US and winter is coming. We are now an incredible 29% above the levels that the US was targeting to refill the Strategic Petroleum Reserves (SPR).

Last week saw the crude inventory build I warned you was coming – +4.0 million barrels. It was caused by a surge in imports to 7.6 million barrels per day .That was the highest level of imports since August 9, 2019. Next week we’ll be back to crude draws. Gasoline inventories rose 5.6 million barrels – they always rise after Labor Day in anticipation of the refinery maintenance seasons that’s about to start.

OPEC data shows the industry faces a supply shortfall of three million barrels per day in the December quarter, the biggest since 2007, due to the Saudi-led supply squeeze. Saudi Arabia’s revenues from high oil exports and Brent in the low $70s are virtually equal to low exports with Brent at $90 a barrel. What is the benefit? They conserve about 45 million barrels of oil every month and it reduces their costs.

A gallon of gas now costs $3.86 or about eight minutes of an average worker’s hourly wages, roughly 50% higher than the average of the 1990s. Got OIL?

The July 2026 Crude Oil Futures (CLN26.NYM – $70.86) are a Buy under $65 for a $200+ target. Only buy futures for all cash; do not use margin.

The United States 12 Month Oil Fund, LP (USL – $40.83) is a Buy under $40 for a $100+ target.

Energy Fuels (UUUU – $8.08) moved up as spot uranium achieved escape velocity today on its moon-ward trajectory. Nuclear fuel brokers Numerco reported a $2.08 spike to $65.51 a pound with sellers now asking $66 a pound. Got U308? UUUU is a buy under $8 for a $30 target.
Primary Risk: Uranium prices fall.

International & Other Recommendations
It is important to hold some non-US assets, especially in China.

Acreage Holdings (ACRDF – $0.54) shot up after a letter leaked from the Department of Health and Human Services recommending the U.S. Drug Enforcement Administration de-schedule cannabis. That followed last week when Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer in a floor speech discussed near-term legislative priorities, including “making progress on cannabis” with the advancement of the SAFE Banking Act. ACRDF is a buy under $2 for a hold for the Canopy Growth merger and beyond.
Primary Risk: Canopy Growth does not acquire the company.

* * * * *

Conscious and unconscious preferences, as well as career and social incentives for researchers, create a ‘Survivorship Bias’ in what information the public and decision-makers tend to see.

Click for larger graphic h/t @PatrickTBrown31 Also see https://thedecisionlab.com/biases/survivorship-bias

* * * * *

* * * * *

Your exploring the Hispanic paradox Editor,

Michael Murphy CFA
Founding Editor
New World Investor

All Recommendations

Priced 9/14/23. Check out the complete Portfolio page HERE.

These are the stocks everyone needs to own because transformative events are happening over the next year or two, and I expect to hold them long-term.

Tech Dominators
  Apple Computer (AAPL – $175.74) – Buy under $150 for new iPhones
  Corning (GLW – $31.48) – Buy under $33, target price $60
  Gilead Sciences (GILD – $77.36) – Buy under $80, target price $120
  Meta (META – $311.72) – Buy under $250, target price $400
  SoftBank (SFTBY – $22.85) – Buy under $25, target price $50

Small Tech
  Enovix (ENVX – $15.00) – Buy under $20; 4-year hold to $100+
  First Trust NASDAQ Cybersecurity ETF (CIBR – $47.08) – Buy under $40; 3- to 5-year hold
  Fastly (FSLY – $21.62) – Buy under $20; 2- to 5-year hold to $80+
  PagerDuty (PD – $23.39) – Buy under $30; 2- to 5-year hold
  QuickLogic (QUIK – $8.74) – Buy under $10, target price $40
  Rocket Lab (RKLB – $5.26) – Buy under $13, target price $30+
  Velo3D (VLD – $1.63) – Buy under $6, target price $50

  Akebia Biotherapeutics (AKBA – $1.26) – Buy under $2, target $20
  Aptose Biosciences (APTO – $3.35) – Buy under $10, ultimate target $300
  Compass Pathways (CMPS – $9.92) – Buy under $20, hold a long time for a 10x return
  Inovio (INO – $0.43) – Buy under $7, hold a long time
  Invitae (NVTA – $0.80) – Buy under $10, first target $50, then $100+
  Medicenna (MDNA – $0.30) – Buy under $3, first target $20, then maybe $40
  ScyNexis (SCYX – $3.39) – Buy under $3, target price $20, then $50
  TG Therapeutics (TGTX – $10.19) – Buy under $12 for buyout at $30+

  A Short-Sale or REO House – ($415,400) – Hold
  Bag of Junk Silver – ($22.94) – hold through silver bull market
  Sprott Gold Miners ETF (SGDM – $24.53) – Buy under $28, target price $50
  Sprott Junior Gold Miners ETF (SGDJ – $27.61) – Buy under $39, target price $100
  Sprott Physical Gold and Silver Trust (CEF – $17.82) – Buy under $18, target price $30
  Global X Silver Miners ETF (SIL – $25.73) – Buy under $30, target price $50
  Coeur Mining (CDE – $2.29) – Buy under $5, target price $20
  First Majestic Mining (AG – $5.59) – Buy under $11, next target price $23
  Paramount Gold Nevada (PZG – $0.31) – Buy under $1, first target price $10
  Sandstorm Gold (SAND – $5.20) – Buy under $10, target price $25
  Sprott Inc. (SII – $33.33) – Buy under $40, target price $70

  Bitcoin (BTC-USD – $26,605.10) – Buy
  Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC – $19.46) – Buy
  Ethereum (ETH-USD – $1,624.76) – Buy
  Grayscale Ethereum Trust (ETHE – $11.62) – Buy

  Crude Oil Futures – July 2026 (CLN26.NYM – $70.86) – Buy under $70; $200+ target
  United States 12 Month Oil Fund, LP (USL – $40.83) – Buy under $40; $100+ target
  EQT (EQT – $42.59) – Buy under $35; $70 first target
  Energy Fuels (UUUU – $8.08) – Buy under $8; $30 target
  Freeport McMoRan (FCX – $40.68) – Buy under $44; $65 target within two years

International & Other Recommendations
  EMQQ Emerging Markets Internet & Ecommerce ETF (EMQQ – $30.66) – Buy under $38 for a $66 target in 12 to 18 months
  KraneShares Bosera MSCI China A Share Fund (KBA – $22.96) – Buy under $40 for a three- to five-year hold
  Morgan Stanley China A-Shares Fund (CAF – $12.55) – Buy under $18 for a three- to five-year hold
  KraneShares CSI China Internet ETF (KWEB – $27.89) – Buy under $40 for a double over the next three years
  Acreage Holdings (ACRDF – $0.54) – Buy under $2 for the Canopy Growth merger
  Mongolia Growth Group (MNGGF – $1.07) – Buy under $1.30; long-term hold

These are holds but not sells – yet. They could get moved back to one of the buy categories if their prices drop or outlook improves, or they could become sell recommendations in the future.
  Arch Therapeutics (ARTH – $2.00) – Hold for buyout

Publisher: GwynRose LLC, 5348 Vegas Drive, Suite 868, Las Vegas, NV 89108

New World Investor does not act as a personal investment adviser or advocate the purchase or sale of any security or investment for any specific individual. The recommendations and analysis presented to members are for the exclusive use of members. Members should be aware that investment markets have inherent risks and there can be no guarantee of future profits. Likewise, past performance does not assure future results. Recommendations are subject to change at any time. Nothing in this presentation should be considered personalized investment advice. No communication to you by Michael Murphy or any of our employees or contractors should be deemed as personalized investment advice.

Copyright ©GwynRoseLLC 2023

New World Investor Mastermind Group

1. Post unto others as you would have them post unto you.
2. Keep it clean, like a 1950s family television show. Your alter ego can run free on Twitter.
3. NO PERSONAL ATTACKS! If you don’t like the stock, don’t trash the person. Everyone is responsible for their own due diligence and investments.
4. Don’t post here about politics or religion – you aren’t going to change anyone’s mind. Again, NO PERSONAL ATTACKS!
5. The investment implications of something going on in politics or religion is OK.
6. Of course, there’s never a reason to slur someone based on race, religion, gender, sexual orientation, or country of national origin.
7. Please, no snark!

Print This Post Print This Post
Notify of
Inline Feedbacks
View all comments

First. Now to read it….


The UAW wants a 40 percent raise. The UPS workers just got a pie in the sky contract. The teachers union is pushing for some of the same . As is the longshoremen’s union. How is this NOT inflationary? OMG. We can’t get off the inflation super train. What will the FED do when all of that filters back into FED’s computer models???

You know who benefits the most from this UAW kerfuffle? Union free Tesla.

On the other hand, wages are horribly out of step with costs at this point. Workers deserve more money and executives need cuts or at least flat wages.

Yes , the AI intel says Tesla will pop 10-16 percent in the next 30 days. I agree, top executives are getting crazy amounts of $$$$$$$.

RIVN should benefit also.

I don’t mind top execs of blue chip companies getting the high market based salaries they command. They create jobs and benefit shareholders because they are incentivized with high pay. But I resent execs from speculative companies like in NWI getting high salaries at the expense of shareholders. Capital raises and dilutions line their fat pockets for producing nothing but losses. The rare spec stock may succeed and produce profits for employees and shareholders like us, but the principal beneficiaries of most spec stocks are the execs.

Right but these blue chip company CEOs are artificially inflating their share prices with stock buy backs. They aren’t necessarily creating wealth.

But the stock buy backs raise the stock price which is part of the execs’ pay package since they own lots of stock. Higher pay = more incentives to do good for employees and retail stockholders. Some employees own their company stock which helps their pay package also.

Still, you are right that an artificially inflated stock price will eventually correct down to its proper value based on company fundamentals. If there is lots of cash in the company, but no attractive investments for that cash, it is reasonable to use the cash for stock buybacks since the company’s stock will be seen as a more attractive use of the cash rather than alternatives.

How does one purchase CLN26.NYM?

Good question. There were no open contracts when I tried to buy on Merrill Edge or E*TRADE. Seems dangerous to be in something so illiquid. I agree with the premise of spot oil increasing. Anyone have any ideas how to buy oil futures ?

Some of most horrible losses came when I dared dip my toe into futures options. If you want to play rising oil, buy URA and/or TSLA.

In the portfolio section, says FSLY was recommended 5-20-2021@ $23.40? More like $47 on Yahoo finance that day. Also, why not put the current price in the portfolio section. Seems like would be easy to integrate. Saves having to look in multiple places when analyzing.

$43.78 to be exact. Easy to replace the “9-14-23” portion of the link for this week’s report with the recommended date (“5-20-21”) & delete the “#comment…” portion to go back & look up the original price when he recommended it. There hasn’t been a stock split since so MM needs to shed some light on why he now uses $23.40.

Though the ARM share price has slipped a bit over the last few days, I’ve been surprised by the lack of impact of the undeniably successful IPO on SFTBY. I’m not a shareholder in either, but I’ve been watching. Any thoughts?

Yet another tech sell off on yet another stalled budget battle. Really tiresome. Perhaps we could withhold congressional salaries while they figure out the correct posture and pork they want added or subtracted to these constant battles?

Get rid of ALL pork (special interests for a few beneficiaries of “noble” causes at the expense of the many taxpayers). Stop attaching pork to the very few worthwhile spending bills.

The problem is one man’s pork is another’s baloney. The elephant in the room is the 900 million dollars given to the pentagon every year with absolutely no oversight. Enough.

Michael, I think you need to multiply that elephant by about 1,000 to get the actual amount given to the pentagon every year.

Yeah duh.


Rocket Lab stock drops after first Electron launch failure in years (cnbc.com)
Stocking trading at $4.64 after hitting a low of $4.17 early in the morning.

Run Forest run!

do we have to assume that nvta is the worst recommendation.that this newsletter has ever been giving,closing price march 1st 2021 43.72 with a strong buy up to 50.00
now trading at 73 cents,do any others out there top that,anybody

Sadly, within just the Biotech group, NVTA doesn’t even crack the top 5, it comes in 7th.

Of the biotech stocks still in the portfolio as of the 1st of this year, the ranking of worst performers compared with their original recommendation price are:
AKBA: -96.6%
BLPH: -95.3% (using the sell recommendation price)
ARTH: -95.0%
MDNA: -92.2%
INO: -92.1%
GRPH: -90.6% (using the sell recommendation price)
NVTA: -89.5%
SCYX: -84.4%
APTO: -79.9%
CMPS: -75.4%
TGTX: +58.3%

Only one has a positive return (TGTX) and all others are down over 75%! Talk about wealth destruction…

Wow,agreed tx Brent

You won’t see those numbers on the NWI homepage 🙂

What are current thoughts on CWBR? Thanks!

Would love some concrete information on TGTX. Specific info not general, xomething you could hang your hat on.

There is no specific info. We are waiting on Q3 sales report in early Nov.

MM why do you still believe NVTA is the “winner take-most in genetic testing”? As you can see it hit an all time low this week. Is this a “table pounding” buy as you used to say? Cathy Wood seems to think so. Thanks

Mm has left the building

But what’s another couple hundred bucks at this point