Dear New World Investor:
Soon to be Fed Vice Chairman Lael Brainard kneecapped the rally by saying the Fed will run down their balance sheet aggressively, perhaps at $95 billion every month, beginning as soon as next month. The 10-year Treasury note closed today with a 2.652% yield while the 2-year closed at 2.468%, so the yield curve is very flat but not inverted. Markets now expect half-point (50 basis points) Fed fund rate increases in May, June, and July to bring the rate to 2.5% to 2.75% by the end of this year. That is now priced in to stocks.
Next Tuesday’s March Consumer Price Index report is expected to show a year-over-year increase of 8.3% for the headline number and 6.6% for the core number that excludes food and energy. That would encourage the Fed to raise the half-point in May.
But it looks like core inflation pressures will start easing soon. The spread between new orders and production components within the March ISM Manufacturing Index has collapsed and is at lowest level since late-2020. That means supply chain pressures and excess demand from the recovery may be over.
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Stock investors remain very negative. The demand for hedges remains elevated with the 20-day average CBOE put-to-call ratio recently near the highest since May 2020. RBC Capital Markets said investors who are optimistic about US stocks over the next six months to a year have “nearly vanished” as the Federal Reserve begins tightening its monetary policy. They wrote: “For the first time since mid-2019, the bears outnumbered the bulls in our first-quarter poll of institutional equity investors over the last four days of March.” The portion of bullish views on the stock market has fallen to the lowest level since RBC began conducting the survey in early 2018. This is a strong contrarian indicator.
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But bond investors are very happy with current yields and don’t seem to think long rates will go much higher. Investment-grade bond issuance reached nearly $250 billion in March, marking the fourth-busiest monthly period on record and double the average supply over the previous 10 months. That was in spite of the Bloomberg U.S. Corporate Bond Index logging a 7.7% loss over the first three months of 2022, marking the worst quarterly showing since Lehman Brothers bit the dust in 2008.
The S&P 500 lost 0.7% since last Thursday, is down 5.6% year-to-date, and is only 6.2% below its all-time closing high.
Last week, 80% of the roughly 2,000 constituents of the New York Stock Exchange Composite Index traded above their 20-day averages. That’s happened 56 times in the last ten years, and over the subsequent 100 days after these occurrences, the Index climbed an average of 6%, according to Bloomberg.
The Nasdaq Composite lost 2.3% as tech stocks continued to get hit. I’m looking at both Snap (SNAP) and Roku (ROKU) for possible bounce-back recommendations. The Composite is down 11.2% for the year. The small-cap Russell 2000 dropped 2.9% and is down 10.5% in 2022.
The fractal dimension might have signaled a new trend if we had another big up week, but we didn’t. When the Ukraine war ends – soon, I expect – we’ll see new highs. There is too much money on the sidelines to squeeze through the door at the same time.
Top 5
Changes this week: None
Near-Term – chronological order
OIL iPath Pure Beta Crude Oil Exchange-Traded Note – crude should rise quickly
GBTC Grayscale Bitcoin Trust – Bitcoin is coming out of one of its periodic sharp drops
FB Meta – Bounce from overdone selloff
Long-Term – alphabetical order
ARTH Arch Therapeutics – High-value wound care and hemostat for surgery
CWBR CohBar – mitochondria drugs and life extension
GRPH Graphic Bio – second-generation genetic editing
NVTA Invitae – the winner-take-most of genetic testing
FB Meta – a leader in the metaverse
Economy
The Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow model is forecasting 0.9% growth in the March quarter, while the Blue Chip economists are at 1.9%. It’s a low number either way.
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Virus Update
I’m thinking about ending these virus updates because the pandemic seems to be under control and not affecting the economy much anymore. Any thoughts?
Worldometers now shows 495,823,716 worldwide confirmed infections, of which 437,830,464 have run their course. Of those, 431,636,999 recovered and 6,193,465 died – matching last week’s new low case fatality rate of 1.4%.
In the US, there have been 81,951,440 confirmed infections, of which 67,098,730 have run their course. Of those, 66,088,166 recovered and 1,010,564 died, matching the last two week’s case fatality rate of 1.5%.
Daily new cases are stuck at just over 28,000.
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Hospitalizations were only 10,505 on Monday.
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Daily deaths have gone under 500.
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Almost half of the adult population has had a booster, including two-thirds of the over-65s.
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Coming Events
All times below are ET, and most of the presentations and slides are archived on the companies’ websites so you can listen to them.
Friday, April 8
MDNA – Medicenna – Through 4/13 – American Association for Cancer Research annual meeting – 2 poster presentations
Monday, April 11
Short Interest – After the close
Tuesday, April 12
March Consumer Price Index – 8:30am – +8.3% expected; core +6.6% expected
Wednesday, April 13
ACRDF – Acreage Holdings – 9:00am – Cantor Cannabis Conference panel
Thursday, April 14
APTO – Aptose – 1:30pm – Canaccord Genuity Horizons in Oncology Conference panel
Friday, April 15
Markets closed
The $20-For-$1 Stocks
Say you put $2,000 into a stock that goes from 50¢ a share to $10. The $2,000 turns into $40,000. Then you put the $40,000 into another stock that goes from 50¢ to $10. That turns the $40,000 into $800,000. You did it with two stocks, and never risked going negative more than $2,000. (Not that you won’t be mad at me if the first one works and then the second one doesn’t, taking your $40,000 to Money Heaven.)
If you can afford it – and it would not be too big a position in your portfolio – putting $2,000 into each of these 12 speculative biotechs might be a good way to start.
The market capitalizations of these recommendations typically are very low. At the same time, Initial Public Offering valuations have moved very high. We are seeing $750 million to $900 million valuations for a good preclinical/Phase 1 IPO, and even $300 million to $500 million for mediocre Phase 1s. I don’t see how investors make 5x to 10x in a reasonable, three- to four-year period. How many biotechs have moved north of $10 billion within 5 years after pricing an IPO in the $700 million to $900 million range? Hardly any. Buying these out of favor, fallen, or forgotten companies that can get important products through the FDA at very low market capitalizations seems like a much better strategy to me.
Risks
Development-stage biotechs are subject to investor sentiment swings from wildly optimistic to excessively pessimistic – mostly the latter recently. After the Primary Risk for each company, I’ve added the clinical stage of their lead product, the probable time of their first FDA approval, and the probable time of their next financing.
As always, you need to think about an appropriate position size. You could buy a full position upfront and then just hold on, or buy some upfront and leave room to add more on the inevitable financings, transient clinical trial setbacks, and the like.
Algernon Pharmaceuticals (AGNPF – $4.92) has not completed their uplisting to NASDAQ yet. They did a brief video on their DMT for stroke program.
AGNPF is a Hold.
Primary Risk: Ifenprodil fails in clinical trials.
Clinical stage of lead product: Phase 2/3
Probable time of first FDA approval: 2023
Probable time of next financing: 2022
Aptose Biosciences (APTO – $1.42) appointed a very experienced Chief Commercial Officer to handle business development and licensing. He most recently was the Associate Vice President and Head of Oncology New Products at Merck, and before that worked for over 20 years at Novartis, including as Senior Director of Early Commercial Strategy focused on oncology products.
They also announced that the Chief Financial Officer, formerly a biotech analyst at Roth, is leaving. That’s probably to cut costs a bit. APTO is a Buy under $4 for a $45 target in a buyout.
Primary Risk: Either drug fails in clinical trials.
Clinical stage of lead product: Phase 1a
Probable time of first FDA approval: 2025
Probable time of next financing: late 2022 or early 2023
Arch Therapeutics (ARTH – $0.10) is at the 2022 Symposium on Advanced Wound Care (SAWC) Spring this week. Two doctors are presenting new case studies on AC5. Dr. Jean Gillon, a vascular surgeon at Sequoia Hospital, presented A New Treatment Modality to Expedite Healing in the Case of a Transmetatarsal Breakdown and Dr. Thomas Davenport, a plastic surgeon at the Long Island Plastic Surgical Group, presented Optimizing the Wound Bed for Application of a Skin Graft with a Novel Adaptive Self-Assembling Peptide Barrier Scaffold and Peptide Technology.
This morning, CEO Terry Norchi hosted a live Open Air Studio presentation, AC5 Self-Assembling Peptide: Game-Changing Opportunities for Acute, Chronic, and Challenging Wounds with Terry Treadwell, MD, FACS, and Brock Liden, DPM presenting additional case studies.
Dan Yrigoyen, VP:Sales, said: “The ongoing observations by wound care thought leaders regarding the utility of AC5 Advanced Wound System continues to demonstrate the impact this technology can have on the future of wound care. We look forward to sharing new case studies and discussing the central role AC5 should play in improving outcomes and lowering healthcare costs with SAWC attendees.”
Over 1,000 wound care specialists, including physicians, nurses, physical therapists, researchers, scientists, podiatrists, and dietitians, registered to attend SAWC. Arch created an AC5 website with case studies and Key Opinion Leader highlights, as well as the all-important ordering info. ARTH is a Buy up to $0.70 for a $2 target after a distribution deal is signed and a $7 target in a buyout.
Primary Risk: AC5 fails to sell or the internal trial fails.
Clinical stage of lead product: External approved. Internal trial 2022
Probable time of first FDA approval: External done. Internal 2023
Probable time of next financing: June 2022 quarter
Invitae (NVTA – $7.48) introduced the first comprehensive genetic test suite for neurodevelopmental disorders. It can deliver actionable genetic insights to inform treatment plans for children with developmental disabilities in an easily accessible format.
One in six children between the ages of 3 and 17 has a developmental disability, yet two out of three children do not receive the recommended genetic testing. Invitae’s package is supported by guidelines from the American Academy of Pediatrics that recommend testing for children with intellectual disability, global developmental delay, or autism spectrum disorder. Buy NVTA under $50 for a first target of $100 and eventually $200+ when they become the Amazon of genetic testing.
Primary Risk: A competitor starts taking significant market share.
Clinical stage of lead product: NM
Probable time of first FDA approval: NM
Probable time of next financing: Not needed
ScyNexis (SCYX – $3.60) will be at three women’s health medical conferences in April:
4/3-4/8 American College of Osteopathic Obstetricians and Gynecologists (ACOOG) Annual Conference
4/28-4/30 Ms. Medicine Women’s Health Matters Conference
4/29-4/30 National Black Nurse Practitioner Association (NBNPA) 3rd Annual Educational Conference
Buy SCYX under $24 for a first target price of $54 now that Brexafemme is approved and a buyout at $170.
Primary Risk: Ibrexafungerp fails to sell.
Clinical stage of lead product: Approved
Probable time of next FDA approval: mid-2022
Probable time of next financing: 2023 or never
Biotech MegaShift
Akebia Therapeutics (AKBA- $0.54) is presenting three posters of vadadustat data at the National Kidney Foundation Spring Clinical Meetings, April 6–10, including one FU to the FDA: Hemodialysis Access Thrombotic Events in Patients with Dialysis-Dependent CKD Randomized to Vadadustat vs. Darbepoetin Alfa.
We’re not likely to hear the results of the FDA meeting until midyear. AKBA is a Hold for the FDA meeting on vadadustat.
Primary Risk: Vadadustat not approved.
Clinical stage of lead product: Vadadustat NDA filed
Probable time of next FDA approval: March 29, 2022
Probable time of next financing: June quarter of 2022
TG Therapeutics (TGTX – $9.71) presented very positive data on ublituximab in patients with relapsing forms of multiple sclerosis (RMS) at the American Academy of Neurology annual meeting. Both the time to first confirmed relapse, and the proportion of patients who experienced a confirmed relapse were reduced with ublituximab treatment as compared to teriflunomide. Buy TGTX under $40 for a target price in a buyout of $80 or more.
Primary Risk: Ukoniq fails to sell or FDA turns down U2.
Clinical stage of lead product: Approved
Probable time of next FDA approval: mid-2022
Probable time of next financing: Not needed
Biotech & Digital Dominators MegaShift
There are at least four ways to make money in the stocks of these large, growing, dominant companies. You can:
* * Buy a stock and hold it
* * Buy a stock and write a call option against it
* * With a Level IV options account, write an out-of-the-money put option
* * With a Level IV options account, write an out-of-the-money put option and use part of the premium to buy an out-of-the-money call option
Apple (AAPL – $172.14) begins Friday Night Baseball tomorrow on Apple TV+ with two games, the Mets at the Washington Nationals at 7:00pm ET and the Houston Astros at the Los Angeles Angels game at 9:30pm. AAPL is a Hold for new iPhone rollouts and augmented/virtual reality products.
Meta Platforms (FB – $222.95) plans to introduce “Zuck Bucks,” virtual coins, tokens, and lending services, to its various apps now that their cryptocurrency project has collapsed. Eventually this will become the virtual currency for the metaverse, outside government regulation. FB is a Buy under $320 for a $400 target in 2022.
Gilead Sciences (GILD – $60.99) said Kite got FDA approval of Yescarta as the first CAR T-cell therapy for the initial treatment of relapsed or refractory large B-cell lymphoma (LBCL) and the first LBCL treatment to improve upon the standard of care in nearly 30 years. The Phase 3 trial showed patients on Yescarta were 2.5x more likely to be alive at two years without cancer progression or any need for additional cancer treatment.
GILD is a Long-Term Buy under $105 for a first target of $130.
SoftBank (SFTBY – $22.80) bought back another 29,703,300 shares in March, bringing them to a total of 67,257,900 sine the November 8 Board resolution. As long as SFTBY sells for less than half of net asset value, expect Masayoshi Son to keep buying. Excellent! SFTBY is a Buy under $30 for a first target of $60 in the next two years.
Other Tech
Rocket Lab USA (RKLB – $7.93) launched its 111th and 112th satellites into orbit, these two for BlackSky (BKSY). This was Electron’s 25th lift-off from their Launch Complex 1 on New Zealand’s Mahia Peninsula. Rocket Lab is contracted to launch another pair of BlackSky satellites on a dedicated Electron mission scheduled for later this year.
During its next Electron launch, a commercial rideshare mission currently scheduled for the second half of April, they will attempt a mid-air helicopter capture of the Electron launch vehicle for the first time. RKLB is a Buy up to $13 for my $30+ target as low earth orbit satellites and space exploration grow.
Primary Risk:A new competitor emerges.
Probable time of next financing: None needed
Inflation MegaShift
Gold ($1,934.90) and silver are each up 5.9% for the year to date. The Sprott Gold Miners Exchange-Traded Fund (SGDM – $33.22) is up 21.4% and the Sprott Junior Gold Miners Exchange-Traded Fund (SGDJ – $42.84) is up 4.8%. The Global X Silver Miners Exchange-Traded Fund (SIL – $36.95) is up 0.7%.
Gold had another consolidation week, reversing last week’s decline. Consolidation often means trendless, and gold has been more or less trendless since mid-2020. A lot of energy is stored up and it’s just a question of when we hit major new all-time highs, not if. Mother’s Day is coming, got gold?
Miners & Related
First Majestic (AG – $13.17) completed a record exploration program in 2021 totaling 227,845 meters of drilling, a 46% increase in meters drilled compared to 2020. About 80% of the drilling was focused on near-mine or brownfield targets. During 2021, they added more ounces into reserves than were depleted, following a record 26.9 million silver equivalent ounces in annual production.
Proven and Probable Mineral Reserves totaled 177.4 million silver equivalent ounces, consisting of 63.0 million ounces of silver and 1.32 million ounces of gold. Silver and gold ounces increased 1% and 118%, respectively.
Measured and Indicated Mineral Resource estimates totaled 332.5 million silver equivalent ounces, consisting of 111.0 million ounces of silver and 2.89 million ounces of gold, representing a 1% decrease and a 130% increase, respectively.
Inferred Mineral Resource estimates increased significantly to a total of 235.1 million silver equivalent ounces, consisting of 75.3 million ounces of silver and 2.08 million ounces of gold.
AG is a Buy under $15 for a $23 next target price as production increases and the price of silver rises.
Primary Risk: Prices of precious metals fall due to US dollar strength.
Sandstorm Gold (SAND – $8.60) announced record March quarter ounces sold and revenues. Ounces sold rose 7.2% from last year to approximately 18,700 attributable gold equivalent ounces. Revenue rose 13.9% to $35.3 million. Cost of sales excluding depletion was $5.3 million, resulting in cash operating margins of approximately $1,600 per attributable gold equivalent ounce versus $1,470 last year.
The company renewed its stock buyback program for up to 18.9 million shares, 10% of the outstanding stock. In the last year they bought back 4.65 million shares. SAND is a Buy under $10 for a $25 target.
Primary Risk: Prices of precious metals fall due to US dollar strength.
Cryptocurrencies
Cryptocurrencies are a diversifying asset that offer a unique opportunity to make (or lose!) a lot of money quickly. You can easily buy Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies at Coinbase, Block, or Robinhood.
Bitcoin (BTC-USD on Yahoo – $43,414.85) is marking time in the $40,000 to $45,000 area that has capped it many times in the last 12 months. The recent run to $48,000 was a test, but sellers came out over $45,000. Once it breaks through there I expect a run to the old high around $68,000, then a consolidation, and then a run towards $100,000.
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BTC-USD, ETH-USD, GBTC and ETHE are Strong Buys.
Primary Risk: Bitcoin falls due to over-regulation or is surpassed by another cryptocurrency.
International & Other Recommendations
It is important to hold some non-US assets, especially in China. Chinese firms listed in the US may yet retain their coveted exchange listings. The Wall Street Journal said regulators in Beijing and DC continue to haggle over the extent to which those entities are subject to inspection from American auditors. China is the only domicile that doesn’t allow US auditors to examine its companies’ books.
EMQQ Emerging Markets Internet & Ecommerce ETF (EMQQ – $32.71) is a Buy under $38 for a $66 target in 12 to 18 months.
Primary Risk: China falls into a recession.
Morgan Stanley China A-Share Closed-End Fund (CAF – $16.17) is a Buy under $24 for a three- to five-year hold.
Primary Risk: China falls into a recession.
KraneShares CSI China Internet Exchange-Traded Fund (KWEB – $28.89) is a Strong Buy under $50 for a double over the next three years.
Primary Risk: China falls into a recession.
Acreage Holdings (ACRDF – $1.40) moved up after the House voted 220-204 to pass the Marijuana Opportunity Reinvestment and Expungement (MORE) Act, which decriminalizes marijuana at the federal level. It doesn’t have a chance of passing the Senate, so it’s just a political trap, although a clever one. It makes Republicans look like idiots and they have no counter to it. Trump was worthless on this topic too.
ACRDF is a buy under $4.49 for a hold for the Canopy Growth merger and beyond.
Primary Risk: Canopy Growth does not acquire the company.
Oil – $96.92
Oil posted its biggest weekly loss in more than 10 years and fell under $100 after President Biden’s plan to release one million barrels a day from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve, which would replace half of Russia’s exports for the next six months, was backed by other countries pledging an additional 60 million barrels.
Analysts are warning that any reprieve from high oil prices will be short-lived. President Biden wants to exact financial penalties on drillers for unused federal permits, and enhance the focus on clean energy, leaving oil executives less inclined than ever to invest the proceeds from $100-a-barrel crude into new wells.
But one of the best analysts I follow thinks the SPR release will raise 2023-2024 futures prices, and that’s a good thing because drillers look at what they’ll get for their oil when a well is completed, not at today’s prices. He wrote: “What gets producers to invest and produce more? A few things – happy investors (higher share prices), government on a leash (less open attacks on the industry and the way they produce and get product to market), and often overlooked forward pricing. Sure, oil finally got back to $100 but only the near front month. Go out a few years and it is still VERY cheap. If you are about to spend a few billion bucks to put some new holes in the ground with expensive equipment and labor – you want to be able to sell it in a few years at a great price – so NOT the $60s we have been swimming in for out years.
“So, one of the ways to get more investment is to pull up the price of the out years by adding a new demand source for that oil. If you sell 100 million barrels today and tell folks you will buy it back in the next five years – producers know they may have a market for it and they know prices have to respond to that new demand that was not priced in. Dumping oil here to buy it back in the future flattens oil’s very steep curve (backwardation) which may get some capex off the ground.
“Yes, you can argue it is dumb to buy it back for more later but not when considering A) Uncle Sam’s checkbook and B) the incentives. Biden has the incentive to trade prices now for prices later (obviously) but in a commodity-heavy inflation shock – it makes sense to cool extreme prices now in a bet on lower inflation later. I would rather have it to put out a $200 oil fire, but I am a Monday Morning Quarterback and not the Commander in Chief with elections to worry about.”
Biden said his penalty program is a “use-it-or-lose-it policy.” Companies that sit on oil leases must “start producing or pay the price” for inaction. As you would expect, Anne Bradbury, CEO of the American Exploration & Production Council, which represent shale explorers, said: “It’s silly to think that increasing fees on producers will result in lower energy prices. This is more about political scapegoating and finger-pointing rather than resolving the underlying issues of supply and demand imbalances. A more constructive approach would be to incentivize domestic oil production over the long term.” But he can’t do that because the progressive wing of the Democratic Party is anti-fossil fuel.
Saad Rahim, chief economist at Trafigura Group, said: “What that is doing is disincentivizing sustainable production from coming on, and is in fact incentivizing demand to stay high. In reality you really need to be doing the opposite.”
Earlier this month, Energy Secretary Jennifer Granholm pleaded with oil executives at a Houston conference to boost oil production for the good of the country – to little effect. US oilfields are pumping about 11.7 million barrels a day, about 10% lower than they were prior to the outbreak of the pandemic, despite the doubling in domestic crude prices since the beginning of 2021.
Although major explorers like Exxon Mobil and Chevron are increasing output from their US assets, it’s intended to offset declines at older sites around the world, so the overall impact on global supplies will be minimal. The next tier of publicly-traded drillers are mostly holding production flat or nudging it up by 5% or less – targets that haven’t changed in response to the administration’s latest appeal.
Ed Hirs, a professor of energy economics at the University of Houston, asked why an oil CEO would ramp up output “when the guy who’s asking me to do it is going to make sure I don’t make a profit?”
As I’ve written before, OPEC+ isn’t coming anywhere near its targeted production increases. In March, they increased the quota by 400,000 barrels a day and then only produced an extra 130,000 barrels a day. It’s not for lack of trying, but they have stuff breaking down and problems with pipelines and storage.
At the same time, the US oil industry is contending with shortages of labor, pipes, trucks, and other equipment, making it hard to increase production, driving up costs, and eating up some or all of the windfall from higher prices. Matt Portillo, an analyst at Tudor, Pickering, Holt, said: “The release of the SPR feels like it’s a little bit of a move from a political perspective to try to get gas prices down in front of the election. But at the end of the day, it doesn’t really change the production constraints that are in the industry at the moment.”
Even after the SPR release, jet fuel prices are soaring on the East Coast, home to some of the world’s busiest airports, with buyers anticipating a worsening shortage as supply dwindles amid sanctions on Russian energy exports. Russia is a major exporter of distillates like jet fuel to Europe. East Coast jet fuel reached record highs in recent days, with spot prices in New York Harbor exceeding $7.30 per gallon on Monday, more than double the seasonal average. The East Coast largely relies on shipments on the Texas-to-New Jersey Colonial Pipeline for refined products, as well as imports from Europe. However, Europe is dealing with its own supply strains, so distillate exports to the East Coast are down nearly 60% on a year-on-year basis, according to Refinitiv Eikon data.
As for gasoline, the Energy Information Administration estimated an inventory draw of two million barrels for the week to April 1, and the summer driving season hasn’t begun yet. Got OIL?
The July 2026 Crude Oil Futures (CLN26.NYM – $53.16, but that’s an old trade) are a Buy under $55 for a $200+ target.
The iPath Pure Beta Crude Oil Exchange-Traded Note (OIL – $31.78) is a Buy under $24 for an $80+ target.
Energy Fuels (UUUU – $9.79) rose 9.6% today after the UK announced plans this morning to triple nuclear power generation capacity by 2050. The plan calls for eight more nuclear reactors, which could be approved on existing sites. The UK would generate about 25% of electricity from this carbon-free energy source, helping the country meet its Paris goals. Take that, Germany!
The Biden Administration is preparing to invoke this week a defense law to allow access to funding for American companies to increase domestic mining of key battery minerals as it aims to reduce foreign reliance on critical metals in the push for clean energy. But the planned addition of key battery metals to the list of items in the 1950 Defense Production Act isn’t expected to ease the permitting process for mining critical minerals in the US. Permitting and other state and federal regulations, as well as building a domestic supply chain of lithium and other minerals crucial to President Biden’s push for greener energy sources and electrification of transportation will take years, maybe a decade. The immediate supply chain crunch for the major battery metals is not going away in the short or medium-term as demand for lithium, nickel, cobalt, and other key metals is soaring and so are prices.
UUUU is a buy under $11 for a $30 target. Got uranium?
Primary Risk: Uranium prices fall.
* * * * *
The Worst Real Estate Bubbles, Ranked
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Your reading Stephen McClellan Editor,
Michael Murphy CFA
Founding Editor
New World Investor
All Recommendations
Check out the complete Portfolio page HERE.
Buys
These are the stocks everyone needs to own because transformative events are happening over the next year or two, and I expect to hold them long-term.
$20-for-$1
Antares Pharma (ATRS – $4.04) – Buy under $5, first target $10, then $50
Aptose Biosciences (APTO – $1.42) – Buy under $4, ultimate target $45
Arch Therapeutics (ARTH – $0.10) – Buy under $0.70, first target $2, then $7
Bellerophon Therapeutics (BLPH – $2.26) – Buy under $11, first target $30, then $300
Compass Pathways (CMPS – $13.02) – Buy under $36, hold a long time for a 10x return
Graphite Bio (GRPH – $4.36) – Buy under $26, hold a long time
Inovio (INO – $3.40) – Buy under $21, hold a long time
Invitae (NVTA – $7.48) – Buy under $50, first target $100, then $200+
Medicenna (MDNA – $1.20) – Buy under $4, first target $40, then maybe $80
ScyNexis (SCYX – $3.60) – Buy under $24, target price $54, then $170
Other Biotech
TG Therapeutics (TGTX – $9.71) – Buy under $40, target price $80+
Tech Dominators
Corning (GLW – $34.41) – Buy under $33, target price $60
Meta (FB – $222.95) – Buy under $320, target price $400
Gilead Sciences (GILD – $60.99) – Buy under $105, target price $130
SoftBank (SFTBY – $22.80) – Buy under $30, target price $60
Other Tech
First Trust NASDAQ Cybersecurity ETF (CIBR – $51.76) – Buy under $32; 3- to 5-year hold
Fastly (FSLY – $17.73) – Buy under $45; 2- to 5-year hold to $150+
PagerDuty (PD – $32.07) – Buy under $40; 2- to 5-year hold
QuickLogic (QUIK – $5.33) – Buy under $10, target price $60
Liberty Media Acquisition Corporation (LMACA – $9.95) – Buy under $10.50, target price $20 to $30
Rocket Lab (RKLB – $7.93) – Buy under $13, target price $30+
Velo3D (VLD – $6.81) – Buy under $11, target price $50
Inflation
A Short-Sale or REO House – Buy while fixed mortgage rates are low
Bag of Junk Silver – $24.75 – hold through silver bull market
Sprott Gold Miners ETF (SGDM – $33.22) – Buy under $25, target price $50
Sprott Junior Gold Miners ETF (SGDJ – $42.84) – Buy under $39, target price $100
Sprott Physical Gold and Silver Trust (CEF – $19.32) – Buy under $15, target price $30
Global X Silver Miners ETF (SIL – $36.95) – Buy under $30, target price $50
Coeur Mining (CDE – $4.49) – Buy under $10, target price $20
First Majestic Mining (AG – $13.17) – Buy under $15, next target price $23
Paramount Gold Nevada (PZG – $0.63) – Buy under $5, first target price $10
Sandstorm Gold (SAND – $8.60) – Buy under $10, target price $25
Sprott Inc. (SII – $51.59) – Buy under $30, target price $70
Cryptocurrencies
Bitcoin (BTC-USD – $43,414.85) – Buy
Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC – $30.38) – Buy
Ethereum (ETH-USD – $3,239.17) – Buy
Grayscale Ethereum Trust (ETHE – $24.87) – Buy
International & Other Recommendations
EMQQ Emerging Markets Internet & Ecommerce ETF (EMQQ – $32.71) – Buy under $38 for a $66 target in 12 to 18 months
KraneShares Bosera MSCI China A Share Fund (KBA – $36.86) – Buy under $34 for a three- to five-year hold
Morgan Stanley China A-Shares Fund (CAF – $16.17) – Buy under $24 for a three- to five-year hold
KraneShares CSI China Internet ETF (KWEB – $28.89) – Buy under $50 for a double over the next three years
Acreage Holdings (ACRDF – $1.40) – Buy under $4.49 for the Canopy Growth merger
Mongolia Growth Group (MNGGF – $1.49) – Buy under $1.25; long-term hold
Energy
Crude Oil Futures – July 2026 (CLN26.NYM – $53.16) – Buy under $55, $200+ target
iPath Pure Beta Crude Oil Exchange-Traded Note (OIL – $31.78) – Buy under $24, $80+ target
Energy Fuels (UUUU – $9.79) – Buy under $11, $30 target
Holds
These are holds but not sells – yet. They could get moved back to one of the buy categories if their prices drop or outlook improves, or they could become sell recommendations in the future.
Algernon Pharmaceuticals (AGNPF – $4.92) – Hold for CEO comment
CohBar (CWBR – $0.28) – Hold for human trials of CB5138-3
Akebia Biotherapeutics (AKBA – $0.54) – Hold for FDA meeting
Apple Computer (AAPL – $172.141) – Hold for 5G iPhones
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@Chris snow, see the comment by Murphy on ROKU. Remember our exchange on the price when it was under $50. I think it’s a good bet again.You?
Any one know what happened to VLD this week?
morning Bill,im seeing that playground adventures must have sold their stake according to sec filings hopefully that helps and all it is ,have a great day,Ron
Thank you, Ronald
Yes please get rid of the scamdemic numbers as CDC and the Who have constantly lied about and over exaggerated cases and deaths to promote a death jab that destroys one’s immune system. Not to mention, destroying our healthy youth that have virtually 0% of being harmed by the virus and more likely to collapse from myocarditis.
True, but whatever flaws in the data there are, I like to see the declines in deaths, hospitalizations. Good job, MM.
I agree, the virus is dead, kaput, gone even tho the CDC and Dr. F would love to have it continue forever. It committed suicide when Omni hit the streets as a weaker variation of the original. The goal of a virus is NOT to kill the host, because in the end it kills itself. Even the most ridiculous states like Oregon has finally come to the realization that the face Diaper is no longer needed. And it’s a good thing because the public is fed up to the eyeballs with all of it.
No reason to keep the covid #’s. At this point the only numbers that matters are hospital bed availability % and sewage concentration. Everything else is meaningless.
Numbers of hospital cases are less meaningful than numbers of deaths. Many patients with bad coughs panic and go to the hospital, but they are not significantly ill.
I like the Covid # but perhaps only monthly rather than weekly?
Another great Radar Michael Murphy. Liked your take on energy profit incentives. I still am concerned about a potential Sino-Russian move towards moving in on the Petro-Dollar reserve currency as Europe has problems disengaging from Russia because we are not able to get LNG moving to great circle routes to Europe and others (including the Northeast US via pipeline expansions in NY from the Marcellus shale in PA. So we will continue to suffer with energy prices including petro chemicals, Also I hope we don’t have any major natural hurricane or other disasters while we pump out SPR liquids, I saw an article somewhere this week that had some doubts about SPR numbers all being easy to pump out past the 50% number. Some of the big oil companies like XOM seem to b playing the ‘I am a do gooder ESG servant”: My speculation is that will change after the November elections and see a return to a balanced cleaner fossil fuel producing industry
and see greener options stabilize per the Steve Koonin much respected observation on Climate change :”Unsettled”::Hoping for a bit of sanity next week, GLTA
Yes please stop reporting the virus numbers; if people want to see the numbers they can google it.
MM, I see that MDNA hit another 52 week low of $1.13 yesterday with unusually high volume. Are you expecting anything significant from their presentations at the American Association for Cancer Research (AACR) Annual Meeting this weekend?
Medicenna Announces Upcoming Poster Presentations at the AACR Annual Meeting
TORONTO and HOUSTON, March 09, 2022 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) — Medicenna Therapeutics Corp. (“Medicenna” or “the Company”) (NASDAQ: MDNA TSX: MDNA), a clinical stage immuno-oncology company, today announced the publication of two abstracts that have been accepted for electronic poster presentations at the American Association for Cancer Research (AACR) Annual Meeting, which is taking place both virtually and in-person at the Ernest N. Morial Convention Center in New Orleans, Louisiana from April 8-13, 2022.
The full texts of the published abstracts can be found on the AACR Annual Meeting website. Details on the corresponding electronic posters, which will be available to registered attendees starting at 1:00 pm ET on April 8, 2022 and on Medicenna’s website following the meeting, are shown below:
Poster Title: An ‘Anti-PD1-IL2 Beta-Only Super-Agonist’ Displays Potent Anti-Tumor Efficacy
Session Category: Immunology
Session Title: Preclinical Immunotherapy
Location: On-line only
Abstract Number: 5532
This poster will describe preclinical studies evaluating a therapeutic candidate derived from Medicenna’s BiSKITs™ program (Bifunctional SuperKineImmunoTherapies). The evaluated bifunctional Superkine is designed to activate anti-cancer immune cells while limiting their exhaustion, and is composed of an anti-PD-1 antibody linked to an IL-2 Superkine exhibiting enhanced affinity for IL-2 receptor beta, and no binding to IL-2 receptor alpha.
Poster Title: Characterization of a Long-Acting IL-13 Super-Antagonist Engineered to Target Tumor Associated Macrophages and Myeloid Cells
Session Category: Immunology
Session Title: Preclinical Immunotherapy
Location: On-line only
Abstract Number: 5542
This poster will describe preclinical studies evaluating a long-acting IL-4/IL-13 super-antagonist that targets the IL-13 receptor alpha-1 component of type II IL-4 receptor expressed on tumor associated macrophages and myeloid derived suppressor cells. Inhibition of this receptor with the super-antagonist is intended to prevent tumor growth by promoting a pro-inflammatory tumor microenvironment.
MM, What’s with the pathetic volume on BLPH lately. What is the next catalyst that moves this POS!!
Phase 3 results in fibrotic interstitial lung disease at risk of pulmonary hypertension. Study completion in December, but results not until December 2023.
MM, before you close the book on Covid, could you please provide a comparison graph of Covid cases v. The ISM toilet paper manufacturing numbers. I’m not really into OIL but is there a Toilet Paper ETF you could recommend when, I mean if, the next Covid variant is released, I mean emerges, just before the 2022 elections ?
Unikely, I did a very quick scan for just a more general paper products without finding anything – but remember listings expecially on funds might have a unrelated name. Try a scan on the web for a similar range of names.
There is a lot of information on how well this area is booming. I even found lists of the big producers on a Fox site. Dig a little and you might find a sector fund there.
Visual Capital, web site in Canada, is a great way to scan simple simple phrases to get some wonderful answers
First they do a graphics summary, followed by a detailed discussion and then details of specifics plus where they got the data from.
This might be useful for any of subscribers here to start searches.
Tesla will obviously win the EV market with their remarkable cut and paste gigafactories which will become ubiquitous all across the globe. All EV makers have a massive need for nickel and lithium. I’m scaling into VALE and ALB as the biggest producers of both those valuable metals. Way more valuable than gold or silver IMO.
Nickel has skyrocketed. When the Russian war winds down, nickel will plunge, so how do you play this in the short/medium term?
The USA is de facto at war with Russia using the Ukraine as a proxy. So, no, no peace and WW3 in 2023 so nickel should continue to fly away, together with Oil/Gas and ALL commodities as the sanctions on Russia backfire and destroy the global economy, starting with Europe entering an economic Depression by year end. Followed by famine and riots/revolutions in North Africa where most of the now missing Ukraine grain was going.
You mean the US, Britain, Western Europe, NATO in a proxy war. Sanctions on Russia wreck the Russian economy as well as impacting the global economy. Murphy says sanctions don’t work except Russia just defaulted on debt, the Ruble is now the Rubble despite all the desperate efforts to prop it up, and Russian citizens at home are fighting each other over food supplies at retail outlets already. Not to mention their Ukraine-based army low on food and fuel. Putin can use weapons to destroy another country’s cities yet again, kill off and drive away civilians yet again, but he is destroying his Russia, his own military, and his legacy….when he thought he was rebuilding the Russian empire. Oops. Poor ole POS Vladimir Putrid.
The superiority of the Russian Air Farce didn’t work out so well in Ukraine.
The Pentagon to this day cannot confirm the “Bucha massacre”. The sanctions are ineffective (think Iran) for a nation that is self sufficient to the point of Autarchy and will have ZERO effect on Russians other that make them very angry at the West and have so far given an 83% approval rating to Putin. Contrary to daily MSM propaganda, the Russian military operation has been extremely successful and cause of great consternation at NATO headquarters in Mons. There is video after video of sizeable VSU troop detachments moving on foot with wounded elements carried away on requisitioned civilian SUVs; no tanks, no APCs, no trucks, no vehicles of any kind: the Russians destroyed them or captured them all, together with ammo and especially diesel fuel depots. There are also more and more videos of surrendering VSU troops, battalion size. These are the lucky ones, they will live. (not the Nazis hiding among them easily recognizable by their tattoos). The retreat from around Kyiv was probably part of the plan as that pincer movement was never carried out to its conclusion of surrounding the city and appears to have been a move to pin in place the very large VSU force defending the city while making it impossible for them to send reinforcements to the South and East. The endgame is near with the grinding out of the last of the Mariupol defenders in the Azovstal plant and the closing of the encirclement of the VSU army of 50 to 100,000 soldiers in front of the Donbass. Those are the best trained and equipped VSU forces and have been under attack since February 24 so they are probably degraded. But Zelensky has no intention of seeking a ceasefire and peace so they will be sacrificed once the cauldron is sealed. Unless the Russians offer a surrender option that will be accepted. I did not mention anything about the Russian air force, but let me just say that they have air superiority over Ukraine. The occasional lucky strike from a man pad Stinger on a fixed wing or an helicopter changes nothing for the final outcome; additionally, any future engagement between the Nato/US and Russia will NOT be a cakewalk as Russian AD S-400 and related systems units are better and more than a match for Patriot and will make flying in the contested airspace extremely dangerous, unlike Iraq or Afghanistan. Lastly, Russia used for the first time operationally 7 or 8 Zinkhal hypersonic missiles to destroy the Yavoriv military base, a NATO training facility 20 klicks from the Polish border. More than 200 foreign fighters, Nato and Ukrainian military died in the attack with hundreds more wounded. It does not appear that NATO’s AD early warning issued an alarm of an imminent strike, another very disturbing fact if confirmed true. The reason I expect a larger conflict in 2023, besides the West’s politicians daily warmongering, is precisely Hypersonics. The US will have them in 2/3 years and installed in bases in Poland and Romania they will have a 4 minutes flight time to Moscow, a clear strategic no-no for the Russians.
The Bucha massacre is not real? It wasn’t Putin who leveled Grozny, a place the U.N. declared the most destroyed city on Earth? That didn’t happen either? What’s your take on Syria and El-AssSad?
I did not say the Bucha massacre is not real, there is a war, people die. There has to be a forensic investigation to see what happened, is it going to happen? I do not think so as every civilian that dies is always the Russians, by definition. That’s propaganda imho.
We, the USA, have a very long history of killing innocent civilians, during WW2 and every decade afterwards, so there should be some caution in accusing others. How about the 10 Afghani of 2 families incinerated by Biden after the Kabul terror attack?
I just collect facts and analyze them with great limitations as I am not there.
My military library is not one book but about 6,000 of them, and I read most of them as I try to understand things.
Try to find out if the US Navy has countermeasures that work against Zinkhal and Zyrkon hypersonic missiles.
My guess is they do not at the present time which means, by definition, that in any hot war between the US and Russia we may stand to lose one of more aircraft carriers and which also explains the very little propensity of the Pentagon to follow the Neocons in their escalatory crazy policies.
You are espousing Putin propaganda along Tucker Carlson on Fixed News
Yeah, according to a survey by the state-run pollster VTsIOM says Putin’s popularity has soared. I’m shocked…really shocked … that Putrid’s popularity wasn’t at least 100%. Otherwise someone could end up as a roommate of Navalny.
Just like Trump won the 2020 election. By a landslide. And “senile” Joe Bi somehow stole the election from the stable genius.
Thanks. Could Russia collapse as Opie suggests, just as the USSR collapsed, ushering in new prosperity in the West?
No, wrong, the first to collapse will be Europe if it renounces to the Russian Oil and Gas this year. US LNG supplies are few and extremely expensive, while Algeria is for the moment unwilling to provide more than token extra amounts. Bottom line is, with no Russian oil/gas Europe’s economies will soon come to a screeching halt, all of them except Hungary and perhaps Slovakia. Russia’s Ruble in the meantime has NOT turned to Rubble but is higher than before the war. That is the result of the fact that Russia can do without Vuitton bags and Mercedes Benzes but the world cannot function without the hundreds of commodities they produce in very large amounts. They are also finding new buyers for OIL and Gas like China, India and others, countries not very easily pushed around by US threats. Finally they introduced a domestic Ruble backed by Gold. Just embryonic at this point but potentially a powerful cornerstone of a monetary gold standard for the Eurasia block of countries: Russia, China, India, Pakistan, Iran and all the rest of them in the middle. Joe Biden probably does not understand what he has done: the END of the West and the US as a global hegemon. As this becomes more and more obvious, more countries in South America and Africa will start trading with or outright join the Eurasian Behemoth. Good job Mr. President and good job Neocons and Victoria Nuland!!!
Listen to Scott Ritter and learn something.
Scott Ritter? He is a registered sex offender, having been convicted of unlawful contact with a minor and five other charges in a 2011 trial.
Charges included “unlawful contact with a minor, criminal use of a communications facility, corruption of minors, indecent exposure, possessing instruments of crime, criminal attempt and criminal solicitation”. Ritter rejected a plea bargain and was found guilty of all but the criminal attempt count in a courtroom in Monroe County, Pennsylvania, on April 14, 2011. In October 2011, he received a sentence of 1½ to 5½ years in prison. He was sent to Laurel Highlands state prison in Somerset County, Pennsylvania, in March 2012 and paroled in September 2014.
Earlier, Ritter was charged in June 2001 with trying to set up a meeting with an undercover police officer posing as a 16-year-old girl. He was charged with a misdemeanor crime of “attempted endangerment of the welfare of a child”. The charge was dismissed and the record was sealed after he completed six months of probation.
I don’t have to go to Russia to learn about authority, that is really not necessary, I can comfortably stay here while our Constitution is trampled on on a daily basis by elected representatives that should know better and the country becomes more and more authoritarian.
Still, “Hic Manebimus Optime”.
I worked on a project classified Top Secret SCI at NASA/JPL, and taught on military bases in Germany. Those Russian atrocities in Ukraine weren’t done by Russia, some say. Same for Syria, Georgia, Chechnya, or the massacre of tens of thousands of imprisoned Polish leaders and intellectuals in WWII?
Bottom line: That Russian Air Force can’t even control the air space over Ukraine.
We give Ukraine drones and intelligence, and they have been defeating a much larger Russian invading army, that was supposed to take Kyiv within days.
Ukraine is being defeated by a much smaller force of 200,000 Russians versus their total of 600,000, but of course if one is just listening to the MSM they are winning instead. The War is really over but that puppet Zelensky is not throwing in the towel and is trying its best to get WW3 started; NO American should die for a country that is NOT in our strategic interest (Obama famously said it) and that most Americans would have trouble finding on a map.
Some have this sanctimonius attitude that Russians fight dirty and kill civilians all the time while we, the USA, are clean as a whistle. That is simply not true, starting with the 2 families Biden incinerated with a hellfire missile in Kabul last August. Just going back to Iraq, we are responsible directly or indirectly, as we invaded and destroyed that country, for the death of 900,000 innocent civilians plus the estimated 500,000 children that died before the invasion because of OUR sanctions against Saddam Hussein. I could continue and examine all of the shit we did during and after WW2 but I will stop with Iraq as the list is far too long.
Regarding Scott Ritter, he may be an ex-con, but he also served as a Marine Officer in the Gulf War and as a UN Weapons Inspector and has a lot more knowledge about what is going on and about how to avoid WW3 than most of the current serving State Dept. clowns.
Where can we read about Scott Ritter’s analysis that is not censored and biased by MSM? Does he have a blog, etc.? Whether there is a serious risk of WW3 is obviously germane to our investments and survival, as you say.
He got booted/censored by Twitter, he was Tweeting daily there. I just try to find out where he participates or gets invited to podcasts. The one I linked here I think is the latest one.
He is actually pretty optimistic regarding our ability to avoid WW3 mostly predicated on the Pentagon current non-aggressive stance vis-a-vis the Russian hating crazed out State Department neocons like Nuland (she is de facto running the war). Not sure his optimism is justified given the Biden name calling (a first since WW2) and ball busting permanent sanctions.
Just because the USA nuked Japan, firebombed the city of Dresden, etc., that does not imply the Russians did not commit atrocities in Ukraine, or its okay for them to do so. That is a core Russian objective, to destroy cities and kill civilians by bombing civilian targets. Those are war crimes and pretending there’s no evidence yet is absurd.
Most of the Ukrainians fighting are volunteers who joined the fight just recently, and were trained as the invasion began. Russia has more tanks than any army in the world. Ukraine has been begging NATO members for jets and got none (yet).
Some assume that to estimate the strength of an army, you count the number of people with rifles, which is obviously incorrect. The soldiers with rifles are not the main source of Russia’s battalion tactical group’s firepower.
A battalion tactical group has one tank company of ten tanks, and three infantry companies. This would typically include one company with ten BMP tracked infantry vehicles and two with ten BTR wheeled personnel carriers each. This gives a total of 40 armored vehicles in the front line.
They also are assisted by one platoon of three vehicles armed with automatic grenade launchers, and another support platoon with five anti-tank vehicles. Behind them is a formidable array of artillery, typically three batteries of two 152mm self-propelled guns, two batteries of three multiple-launch rockets with reload vehicles, and two batteries of three 120mm heavy mortars. Artillery is likely to inflict more casualties than the front-line troops, not to mention all the civilian casualties Russia is targeting to destroy cities and morale. The battalion tactical group also has its own air defense assets, in the form of three personnel carriers carrying teams with man-portable missiles, plus two batteries of three mobile surface-to-air missile launchers with their attendant radar and control vehicles.
Ukraine is outmatched in military resources vs. Russia.
The VSU, the Ukrainian armed forces, on February 24th numbered 260,000 soldiers. With MP, SBU the security services goons, border guards and volunteers drafted when the war started they got to 600,000.- A very powerful army trained and equipped by NATO since 2014. A true NATO standards military force that indeed, so far, has fought very well despite being continuously degraded and suffering heavy losses in men and materiel.
The idea that Russians are intentionally targeting cities and civilians is just pure psyop propaganda. Yesterday we saw Boris Johnson and Zelensky walking around downtown Kyiv, did you see any destruction around them? Kyiv, a huge city of 3.5 million is largely intact. Certainly the suburban towns like Irpin and Bucha where there was heavy fighting are destroyed. But Kyiv, Karkyiv and many other cities large and small are intact. No, the truth is that if Putin wanted to level them with artillery, bombers and standoff weapons he would have done at the very beginning. He is obviously getting zero credit for trying to avoid civilian casualties. Even the majority of the infrastructure, electricity, water and internet has been spared. There are exception like Mariupol, where the neo-Nazi Azov battalion, really a brigade in size, has refused to surrender and is fighting to the last man. MSM have been more than happy to ignore the all too numerous cases of ethnic Russian civilians used as human shields there. The city is now completely destroyed and looks like a mini Stalingrad.
You forgot to go through the supremacy of Russia in tanks, artillery, …. and pretend its just man-to-man combat. Ukrainian citizens didn’t just sign up for a volunteer army to invade Russia.
Look at all the photos. Apartment blocks completed bombed out. Who did this? Russian artillery. Targeting civilian targets. The atrocities are being documented. Of course Russians have already claimed it was all staged, even tho its consistent with their wars in Syria etc. etc.
The Kremlin lies. Oh, there were Nazis! We had to defend ourselves by a special operation, accidentally leveling a few cities, but we haven’t bombed EVERY city yet, like we did in other recent wars! Their may have been Nazis in the train station of refugees, so we are within our rights to bomb those women and children. And the hospitals, schools and apartment buildings too. We HAD to invade just to protect ourselves and rebuild the Russian Empire before next month’s May Victory Day celebration.
You obviously do not know that we have supported and inserted 3rd Gen Nazi organizations like Azov in the politics of Ukraine and their military, we, the USA, have through the good works of Victoria Nuland, a high level unelected State Dept. bureaucrat. Also a neocon rabid Russian hater that used plenty of US taxpayer funds to nurture and support these extremists and, of course, the creation of BioWeapons labs in the Ukraine, 26 of them. (those things are illegal in the US).
We ARE in bed with the Nazis of Ukraine since 1945 when we were thinking of using them against the Soviet Union. That country is gone now we are happily using them against Russia.
There are literally hundreds of photos and videos of the Azov and other Nazi VSU enlisted men and officers wearing the 1st Galizien patches, the Waffen SS Totenkopf Division insignia patches and both in patches and tattoos many more Swastikas than during the 3rd Reich. These are OUR guys.
A lot of these and other VSU formations, US/NATO trained and armed, have been on the Donbass contact line since 2014 and in the period 2014-2022 have been responsible for killing 14,000 civilians in Luhansk and Donetsk. Do those not count as they were ethnic Russian, hence sub-human?
War or no war, nickel and lithium demand will continue to outpace supply. EV batteries need both and growth will he hyperbolic.
Michael – how are you investing in nickel and lithium, please share your calls?
VALE and ALB.
“Way more valuable than gold and silver”, wha?? Gold IS money so it can be used to value those commodities but cannot in any way be compared to them as a commodity as it has very few industrial applications besides jewelry. The new gold ruble is a big deal as it potentially means a return to a gold standard, at least for Eurasia.
Gold as money is so old school. Try taking a gold bar to the grocery store. Why do you think BTC has been skyrocketing for the past dozen years while Gold is about level? I can use BTC to buy anything and transfer it wallet to wallet for no fee anywhere.
What I meant was that the demand for nickel and lithium will keep those metal prices very high for a very long time. The demand for gold will be as it always is … pretty much level.
The Russian money trail and Tramp…
https://www.reuters.com/investigates/special-report/usa-trump-property/
NVTA
MM I would really appreciate your input on what you expect from the first quarter financial report. While they have enough cash to carry them well into next year, the market has punished the stock because costs keep rising above record revenues. The stock price is extremely cheap in the face of your targets, and this would be a back up the truck moment IF you know the company as well as you have researched it as a recommendation in the first place. Is this going to be an earnings surprise or some other good news that would drive a price reversal?
About $133 million in revenues (31% growth) with guidance for over $150 million in the June quarter. An 80 cent loss in both March and June.
Still looks like 40% growth for the full year, though.
NVTA
Thanks for that MM.
It’s a slow crawl back. -.80 is better than -.90 (last quarter) but hardly approaching break even any time soon. Not at least before another round of financing? Sean George is a visionary with a health industry altering concept and I for one would like to believe him. The way I see it at some point soon there has got to be an exponential jump in billable tests in order for him to see he is on his way to fulfilling his vision. Are there any catalysts in the near term that you see that will drive revenue? Do you think the market will treat the expected quarterlies as a hohum quarter or, can you see to the end of the year and beyond toward positive growth. We currently seem to be spinning our wheels. Looking to your years of financial and analytical skills for some real answers. Thanks, now for some real “meat and potatoes”!
Revenues are growing rapidly and steadily, +40% this year, +35%-40% in 2023 and thereafter. They are growing as fast as they can while having the ability to cut costs and turn profitable if we get into a bear market. It’s the Amazon strategy and it works when a company is creating a new industry.
If I had to put all my money into one investment and couldn’t touch it for 10 years, it would be NVTA.
Thanks MM
I think they will only cut costs if they experience a slow down in testing. I don’t think that will happen, maybe in a depression. I like your thinking on this one.
In the current incandescent geopolitical climate I am personally not Pro-Ukraine or Pro-Russia as this is not a football game. I am Pro-truth,
“Amicus Plauti, sed magis amica veritas”.
As little truth is seemingly available in the Main Stream Media, I try to understand what is going on by listening to Scott Ritter, recently booted out of Twitter by the censors over there.
(1) Scott Ritter and The Battle of the Donbas – YouTube
When it comes to Russians massacring civilians in train stations, or in Bucha, the Russians said they didn’t do it. “…some others saying they think it’s Russia. I have President Putin, he just said it’s not Russia…I will say this, I don’t see any reason why it would be.”
The Kromatorsk rocket is a Tochka-U, an old Soviet system the Russians are not using in the theatre but the Ukranians are. It also apparently came from an area controlled by the VSU. The MSM reporting on that massacre is problematic. Both massacres need to be investigated by an international authority.
Plenty of videos out there of VSU army integrated Nazi/Nationalist/extremist elements killing Russian POWs and using their own civilians as human shields.
For sure Russians have killed civilians and maybe even committed atrocities, just, perhaps, NOT those that have been so bombastically announced in Bucha and Kramatorsk. They appear to have been designed and amplified for the purpose of getting NATO involved and invade the Ukraine. As I said, I need a neutral forensic investigation to pin these 2 on the Russians. The fact that CNN accept at face value what Zelensky says is not enough. I am not a Putin lover, I just absolutely do NOT desire any US/NATO direct intervention in this conflict. Period. You want to fight Russians? Go there yourself or send your Grandchildren. The day they build a missile base in Mexico I will be the first one to defend my country but in the Ukraine? Never.
I’m not blind to American atrocities, from My Lai to George Floyd, but everyone who’s not willfully blind can see hundreds of pictures of bombed out apartments, walls and roofs collapsed, every window shattered with scorch marks from each. When we kill a family of 10 in an errant missile strike, we investigate and explain and apologize, and see what we can change to prevent it from happening again. What the Russians are doing in Ukraine is brutal by intention and policy, aimed at civilians, and if one can’t see that for a fact, in a world where almost everyone has a camera, they are blinding themselves to reports just because they are from the MSM, which some apparently take as an acronym for made up, fictional, but which I prefer because they try to verify what they report, and acknowledge and apologize when they make a mistake.
It does not seem to me that apologizing for a war crime goes far enough. No we are not clean like you are saying, Lt. Calley barely went to prison for the Mi Lai massacre. We shall find out the truth one day about Bucha and Kramatorsk. Imho the Russians could have been A LOT more brutal had they really wanted to.
Twitter soon to be sensor free. Musk just bought in and is now on the board. IMO. WOW , this exchange is both very educational and entertaining!!
No board seat.
Then my source was incorrect. But my gut feeling then was something was going to happen. And now he wants to buy the entire company.
“You Cant handle the truth”
MM Time to bring back the “dark room section” to allow the warmongers on this site a place to have their little war of words instead of simple investing ideas that we are subscribing for.
Sorry you feel that way, BUT fyi this little Euro war is having huge ripercussions in all financial/currencies/commodities markets worldwide and it is a gigantic game changer for countless companies and the “simple investing ideas” discussions you are craving.
Depending on where you live, IF things get out of hand and WW3 actually gets going, it may represent a “life ending” event as well.
See, sort of important no?
Then stick to specifics on investments here. Solve those other problems in a useful location.
we
Unbiased political analysis is needed to understand mega trends, as MM would say. The biggest mega trend is whether we survive, and what entity rules over us. Free markets and liberty on a local and global scale must be championed and defended.
Back to “trivial” investments. Latest weekly script numbers for SCYX are down to 342. The stock is plunging, as I predicted. Good but not great product, lousy management. At least ARTH has a great product, although still lousy management.
ACXP has a great drug candidate. I don’t know why the trading volumes are so low.
Chris?
It’s a snow day in Ashland, so I took the time to edit out most of the personal attacks in the very useful discussion on the Ukraine war. The fog of war is heavy and I don’t really know what’s going on, but I think the S&P will shoot up when it ends. It still seems to me the obvious final deal is Ukraine can join the EU but not NATO, can’t host foreign armies, bases, or weapons, and Russia gets Donbas. The war is a big investment deal.
By writing “some people” instead of “you” many posts would not have to be edited. Just sayin’.
Just scrolling though the Ukraine stuff it looks like business as usual. One or 2 people fighting with each other. Hardly worth your time, it all disappears each Thursday.
El Capitan,
Too bad a lot of your debate with Opie was deleted by MM. It got heated, but many useful points were made. We are all grownups and can take the heat. Much of it went over my head because I am not well read in this area, and would like to learn more with your help. Where can we find Scott Ritter’s blog or other corroboration of his findings without the censorship of MSM?
I only deleted the personal insults, I agree wholeheartedly about the useful points on both sides. The fog of war makes it very hard to know what is really happening – was the Moskova sunk? Abandoned? Or just evacuated for safety reasons? Was it hit by a cruise missile or did a fire break out in the ammunition stores? Each side will tell the story that makes them look best, and maybe we’ll find out the truth someday, or maybe not.
HALO to acquire ATRS for $5.60 per share.
Do disappointed
So disappointed
ATRS being bought by HALO for $5.60 per share
Far cry from $10 let alone $50!!
what about the buyout of atrs?
@michaelmurphy
Atrs Buyout
Congrats to Michael Murphy. I can’t believe this. Never has happened to me. I also hold Halozyme {HALO}, who is buying out Antares,a long term hold for me and buy recommendation for Michael Murphy. Now, how does that work? Is that a profit taxwise for me or a transfer with new tax basis??
I’m a long-time holder of ATRS and frankly, I was disappointed by the price. It’s for roughly 5x 2022 revenue that is expected to grow at 18-30% in 2022 with what appears to be lots of long-term growth potential. Throw in that the company is already profitable and frankly, I’m wondering what Antares is thinking?
Maybe epipen sales are peaking (though weekly scripts seem to be up about 10% vs. last year Q)?
Script data for Xyosted continues to slowly increase although revenue data consistently exceeds the script data (34% in Q4 2021 and 45% for the full year over pandemic 2020).
Personally, I plan to vote against this deal.
Question for Michael Murphy – any potential that Teva or someone else will put in a bid for the company?
About 1-2 years ago here, I pointed out that the gold standard for testosterone therapy is CHEAP injectable testo cypionate, using a nearly painless tiny 29 gauge needle on a 1 ml syringe. I train all of my eligible patients to do it at home. It is easy. Xyosted is an OVERPRICED product that will do poorly business-wise. Cost cutting in pharmacy and other health care will kill Xyosted.
The biggest mega shift in medical care is cost cutting. Testosterone is testosterone, so I see no advantage to Xyosted except for convenience. But at what price? You can get testo cypionate for $40 cash retail on GoodRx for a 10 ml vial which lasts 9 months. What is the cost of a 9 month supply of Xyosted? Then tell me what you would do as an informed pharmacy benefit manager.
I respect Brexafemme as a new chemical entity with better efficacy than azoles, so it is worth a premium price. Same goes for the expensive AC5 vs other products. Xyosted–NOT. Everyone is angry about the newer insulin injectable pens which are expensive and not fully covered by insurance. Xyosted will peter out in the marketplace.
Yes, even MM said it was underpriced. I am thinking the $900 plus million had a lot to do with it. I agree if enough shareholders vote NO, there will be movement in the deal.
Flash Alert! Halozyme (HALO) has made an all-cash $5.60 a share offer for our Antares Pharma (ATRS). I recommended ATRS in September 2009 at 93¢ a share, so we made 500% in 12 1/2 years. Better than the proverbial sharp stick in the eye, but this offer WAY undervalues Antares.
It will take Halozyme two or three weeks to do their due diligence, so we don’t have to worry about the deal falling apart in the next week. Because it’s an all-cash offer, we don’t have to worry about the HALO stock price. There’s no downside to waiting a week to see if there’s a higher offer.
Pfizer is an Antares partner. They just hired David Denton from Lowe’s as their new Chief Financial Officer to help them spend their vaccine windfall. He negotiated the Caremark acquisition for CVS Health when he was the CFO there. Antares may be too small potatoes for him, but let’s wait a week and see. Don’t Sell ATRS Yet!
Thank you, Michael Murphy. Just logged in. Foolishly I sold ATRS after a long conversation with an analyst at Fidelity. He was wishy washy on what to do. This morning, I saw the terms of the Agreement with Antares, which told me I had made a mistake, I thought that because there is a statement in the agreement that looks like companies retained their names or Antares shareholders were “merged” into the Halozyme company. Then I saw the HALO shares go up with no news, today. They dropped yesterday on the announcement. Then I came back to New World Investor and saw your comments and re-bought my shares for a seventeen-dollar profit and a wash sale. Thanks. I’m happy you came in with the Don’t Sell and I went to confession to all on this blog. If any on this board made my sell yesterday, please consider what I just did.
ATRS——-NAILED It. Up 45 percent today. ($9,104.00) 138 percent total. Money for nothing, chicks for free!! And to think ALL NWI stocks are DOGS. Thank you MR. MICHAEL MURPHY.
Ok you got a winner. Shall I go through the NWI dogs for you?
Enough dogs to fill ten dog pounds
Just out of curiosity, how many people have actually held onto ATRS for 12 and a half years? Sure this might be a 500% gain but I could toss up dozens of tech stocks that have gone up far higher in far less time .. TSLA comes to mind.
What about the $10 price target .. or even the $50? I would hardly be crowing about this name.
Exactly.
I think Murph forgot to adjust for inflation.
That’s funny, since MM proclaimed that inflation will go away soon. Now he realizes that inflation will persist, diminishing the real returns on paper assets.
ATRS: Regarding the 500% return. For 12 1/2 years using .93 cents as initial value and $5.60 as end value I get a return of 15.5% per year. So the magic of compounding.
When I go to big charts and use 9-3-2009 as start date and compare to the S&P 500 it looks like S&P had a 12% return over the same time period (just my back of the envelope calculations).
I can’t help be a bit disappointed that when BDSI & ATRS are bought out the acquirers says it will be accretive to earnings
It does seem like NWI gets into these stocks earlier than necessary; After years of holding some of these it seems like I should wait until just before the FDA event. I’m thinking TGTX, SCYX, INO…
take the gain on ATRS and smile
jest coment not intended to be a reply to Roger
Exactly
Exactly. Buy when there is blood in the streets, not when you are excited about the story. There will be still major losses, but the overall track record will be much better.
MM – you’ve been calling out Greyscale as the preferred investment option for bitcoin – curious of your thoughts on this article?
https://www.fool.com/investing/2022/04/09/better-buy-bitcoin-vs-grayscale-bitcoin-trust/?source=eptyholnk0000202&utm_source=yahoo-host&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=article
Q: How can anyone write an article on GBTC and not mention the large discount to net asset value, which is the same as buying bitcoin at a discount?
A: They write this: “ The trust held 641,391 Bitcoins in April 2021. Today, the holdings stand at 653,919 Bitcoins. That’s a 2% reduction [??? – MM] in 12 months, consistent with the stated 2% management fee.”
One of the Russian Navy’s most important warships is either floating abandoned, or is at the bottom of the Black Sea, a massive blow to the Russian military struggling against Ukrainian resistance 50 days into Vladimir Putin’s invasion of his neighbor. The 611-foot-long (186 meters) Moskva, with a crew of almost 500, is the pride of the Russian naval fleet in the Black Sea.
Hours earlier, a Ukrainian official claimed the Russian warship had been hit by cruise missiles fired from Ukraine. Moskva would potentially be the largest warship ever taken out of action by a missile.
In the infamous words of Ukrainian soldiers, “Russian ship go F yourself!”
However, this is being reported by the American MSM, nothing on Fox. TASS is admitting there is a fire whose cause is being investigated, and sailors evacuated, but no report of casualties. (Also note, it is illegal to call this “special operation” an invasion, intentionally spreading “fake” news, and punishable by 15 years in Russian prison.) Soon we will see who is spreading fake news, and who is spouting propaganda.
Unless India or some fairly neutral entity brokering a real negotiation to a ceasefire or to end Putin’s war…Given the length of involvement of Russia in its other wars with neighbors and in Syria, this war may last a decade, similar to those other wars fighting resistance, in the attempt to rebuild the Russian empire.
Clearly the lines are being drawn with a united Western Europe, North America, Australia and Japan, vs. an isolated Russia. China is consumed with containing COVID, but otherwise benefits with its frenemies Russia and US/allies fighting each other.
Glad for the ship sinking, OPIE. Otherwise. TOS, if that is a commercial for Biden.
The new Radar Report for 4.14.22 is posted.