Dear New World Investor:
The Federal Reserve Open Market Committee minutes from their June 14-15 meeting said: “Participants judged that an increase of 50 or 75 basis points would likely be appropriate at the next meeting.” OK, that negative is in the market. At the July 26-27 meeting, a 75 basis point increase – ¾ of 1% or 0.75% – shouldn’t surprise anyone and if they only raise the Fed funds rate by 50 basis points it will set off a rally.
And “the Committee’s credibility… had been helpful in shifting market expectations of future policy and had already contributed to a notable tightening of financial conditions that would likely help reduce inflation pressures.” Hmm. Is that positive in the market? I don’t think so.
Then the Fed hints at a pause: “Participants noted that, with the federal funds rate expected to be near or above estimates of its longer-run level later this year, the Committee would then be well-positioned to determine… the extent to which developments warranted policy adjustments.” That positive definitely isn’t in the market.
Initial jobless claims unexpectedly edged higher last week to 235,000, the most since January 15, in a sign the labor market is cooling due to tighter financial conditions. The print comes ahead of the government’s monthly employment report for June due out Friday. Expectations are for a gain of 275,000 jobs, noticeably less than May’s 390,000.
The latest forecast for real GDP growth in the June quarter from the Atlanta Fed is a dramatically weaker -1.9%. There will be another update tomorrow morning.
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The June quarter GDP announcement comes the day after the next Fed meeting ends, but they’ll have a good idea of what it is going to be. If it’s negative, that means two down quarters in a row and recession headlines. Chairman Powell may not want those headlines to be: Fed Tightens Even More Into a Recession.
But first, we have to get past next Wednesday’s Consumer Price Index report. A headline number less than last month’s 8.6% would be helpful, especially since the expectation is for 8.7%. The number the Fed will be looking at in the month-over-month core price increase, expected to be +0.5% or a bit less than June’s +0.6%. Their preferred inflation measure, the Personal Consumption Expenditures price index, won’t be released until July 29.
We are on the edge of the Fed pausing interest rate increases, although I expect them to continue to shrink their balance sheet – quantitative tightening.
Market Outlook
The S&P 500 added 3.1% since last Thursday. Today was the fourth consecutive up day and we’re headed for another up week – a real change in the market’s action, even though investor sentiment still is very negative. That’s what happens when the smart money starts buying – it’s how bottoms are made. The Index is down 18.1% year-to-date and just 19% off its all-time high, exiting bear market territory.
The Nasdaq Composite gained 5.4% but still is deep in bear market territory, down 37.7% for the year. The small-cap Russell 2000 rose 3.6% and still is in a bear market, down 21.2% in 2022.
The fractal dimension still is sliding towards the trend-ending 30 level, even though the S&P was up this week. It’s near enough to 30 to say the end of the downtrend is close and may already have happened.
Top 5
Changes this week: None
Near-Term – chronological order
AGNPF Algernon Pharmaceuticals – chronic cough results
AAPL Apple – September new iPhone introduction
OIL iPath Pure Beta Crude Oil Exchange-Traded Note – crude should rise quickly
GBTC Grayscale Bitcoin Trust – Bitcoin is coming out of one of its periodic sharp drops
META Meta – Bounce from overdone selloff
VLD Velo3D – Rapid revenue growth; low market cap
Long-Term – alphabetical order
GRPH Graphite Bio – second-generation genetic editing
NVTA Invitae – the winner-take-most of genetic testing
META Meta – a leader in the metaverse
RKLB Rocket Lab – #2 to SpaceX in space
VLD Velo3D – Return manufacturing to the US
Virus Update
Worldometers now shows 557,976,502 worldwide confirmed infections, of which 538,125,576 have run their course. Of those, 531,757,961 recovered and 6,367,615 died – matching the last six week’s all-time low case fatality rate of 1.2%.
In the US, there have been 89,930,463 confirmed infections, of which 86,553,518 have run their course. Of those, 85,508,961 recovered and 1,044,557 died – the eleventh week in a row at the all-time low case fatality rate of 1.2%.
That includes the much higher case fatality rate in the early days of the pandemic, while doctors were figuring out the best practices for dealing with severe cases. The moving average case fatality rate shows the recent experience and it is back near the all-time lows at 0.25%.
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Hospitalizations still are increasing slowly.
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But daily deaths are down to 216, the lowest since March 26, 2020, when the pandemic started.
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Coming Events
All times below are ET, and most presentations and slides are archived on the companies’ websites so you can listen to them.
Friday, July 8
June payrolls report – 8:30am – +268,000 expected
Tuesday, July 12
Short Interest – After the close
Wednesday, July 13
Consumer Price Index – 8:30am – Expected top-line: +8.7% year-over-year and +1.0% month-over-month
Expected core: +5.9% year-over-year and +0.5% month-over-month
Friday, July 15
SCYX – ScyNexis – Through 7/20 – International Society for the Study of Vulvovaginal Diseases
The $20-For-$1 Stocks
Say you put $2,000 into a stock that goes from 50¢ a share to $10. The $2,000 turns into $40,000. Then you put the $40,000 into another stock that goes from 50¢ to $10. That turns the $40,000 into $800,000. You did it with two stocks, and never risked going negative more than $2,000. (Not that you won’t be mad at me if the first one works and then the second one doesn’t, taking your $40,000 to Money Heaven.)
If you can afford it – and it would not be too big a position in your portfolio – putting $2,000 into each of these 12 speculative biotechs might be a good way to start.
The market capitalizations of these recommendations are typically very low. At the same time, Initial Public Offering valuations had moved very high. We were seeing $750 million to $900 million valuations for a good preclinical/Phase 1 IPO, and even $300 million to $500 million for mediocre Phase 1s. I don’t see how investors make 5x to 10x in a reasonable, three- to four-year period if they buy at those valuations. How many biotechs have moved north of $10 billion within 5 years after pricing an IPO in the $700 million to $900 million range? Hardly any. Buying these out-of-favor, fallen, or forgotten companies that can get important products through the FDA at very low market capitalizations seems like a much better strategy to me.
Risks
Development-stage biotechs are subject to investor sentiment swings from wildly optimistic to excessively pessimistic – mostly the latter recently. After the Primary Risk for each company, I’ve added the clinical stage of their lead product, the probable time of their first FDA approval, and the probable time of their next financing.
As always, you need to think about an appropriate position size. You could buy a full position upfront and then just hold on, or buy some upfront and leave room to add more on the inevitable financings, transient clinical trial setbacks, and the like.
Algernon Pharmaceuticals (AGNPF – $2.68) closed their $3.75 units offering with net proceeds of about $1 million, enough to carry them through this month. The prospectus was for 2,133,333 units but they only sold 309,117 of them. That tells me two things. First, there was little appetite for units before the chronic cough results are released. Second, as soon as those results are released they will have a second closing of the rest of the shares, or as many as Ladenburg Thalmann can sell.
They didn’t uplist to Nasdaq when they could – when the stock traded over $4 for 20 days in a row. Now they have to announce news good enough to get the stock there and do the remainder of the offering. The hints are that the trial results were good, but show me the numbers.
The company explained its patent strategy for the DMT stroke program. DMT on its own is naturally occurring and therefore not patentable as a new chemical entity. Algernon is patenting novel salt forms of DMT combined with nicotinate and pamoate. Both salts have been shown to be helpful in stroke recovery. A novel salt form of a drug is a new and separate structure from the original compound and is considered a new composition of matter and therefore patentable.
Algernon has contracted with the Centre for Human Drug Research and its affiliated pharmacy at the Leiden University Medical Center in the Netherlands to complete the intravenous formulation that will be used in the Phase 1 DMT trial starting in September.AGNPF is a Hold for the chronic cough results.
Primary Risk: Ifenprodil fails in clinical trials.
Clinical stage of lead product: Phase 2/3
Probable time of first FDA approval: 2023
Probable time of next financing: 2022, as soon as cough results are announced
Aptose Biosciences (APTO – $0.85) appointed a highly experienced Chief Financial Officer, most recently the CFO of Synapse. APTO is a Buy under $2.50 for a $30 target in a buyout.
Primary Risk: Either drug fails in clinical trials.
Clinical stage of lead product: Phase 1a
Probable time of first FDA approval: 2025
Probable time of next financing: late 2022 or early 2023
Arch Therapeutics (ARTH – $0.05) raised $3.5 million in a very expensive and dilutive convertible note financing. The 10% notes mature in only 18 months and are convertible into 107,872,668 shares of common stock at a conversion price of 4.57¢ per share. They also issued warrants to buy 85,110,664 shares at the same price and another 12,766,600 inducement shares.
CEO Terry Norchi said: “The proceeds from this financing will support our efforts to both uplist to a national exchange, which we expect to complete by the first calendar quarter of 2023, and advance our commercialization plan. We continue to build momentum among providers impressed by the ability of AC5 Advanced Wound System to provide improved outcomes for patients, including those with challenging wounds that were previously unresponsive to other advanced treatments. We look forward to further leveraging our self-assembling peptide platform technology to become a recognized leader in wound care and biosurgery.”
Uplisting to the Nasdaq Capital Market requires a minimum stock price of $4, which suggests a 1-for-100 reverse split is coming. Maybe “ build momentum” means there will be meaningful sales in the June quarter. I still think ARTH gets acquired before they uplist. ARTH is a Hold for a buyout.
Primary Risk: AC5 fails to sell or the internal trial fails.
Clinical stage of lead product: External approved. Internal trial 2022
Probable time of first FDA approval: External done. Internal 2023
Probable time of next financing: June 2022 quarter
Graphite Bio (GRPH – $3.11) has a bigger pipeline than most people realize. The GPH-101 sickle cell program still is the most important near-term driver.
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GRPH is a Buy under $9 for a $50 target in 2023, $100 in 2025, and then higher.
Primary Risk: Their drugs fail in the clinic.
Clinical stage of lead product: Phase 1
Probable time of first FDA approval: 2025
Probable time of next financing: 2023 or 2024
Biotech MegaShift
Akebia Therapeutics (AKBA- $0.45) said they agreed with Otsuka to terminate the US and ex-US vadadustat collaboration agreements. Otsuka will pay Akebia a $55 million settlement fee.
Akebia regained the rights for vadadustat in the US, Europe, China, Russia, Canada, Australia, the Middle East, and certain other territories. Now it’s a question of how the FDA meeting goes. AKBA is a Hold for the FDA meeting on vadadustat.
Primary Risk: Vadadustat not approved.
Clinical stage of lead product: Vadadustat NDA filed
Probable time of next FDA approval: March 29, 2022
Probable time of next financing: June quarter of 2022
Biotech & Digital Dominators MegaShift
There are at least four ways to make money in the stocks of these large, growing, dominant companies. You can:
* * Buy a stock and hold it
* * Buy a stock and write a call option against it
* * With a Level IV options account, write an out-of-the-money put option
* * With a Level IV options account, write an out-of-the-money put option and use part of the premium to buy an out-of-the-money call option
Apple (AAPL – $146.35) got a negative review from Goldman Sachs with a target of $130 a share. If history is a guide, in a few months we’ll find out that Goldman is buying Apple stock right now. Ivan Feinseth, the 5-star analyst for Tigress, recently reiterated a Buy rating on APPL with a Street-high target of $210. He especially liked the M2 chip announcement, the next-generation CarPlay interface, and Apple’s $173.43 billion – or $10.65 per share – in excess cash. AAPL is a Buy under $150 for new iPhone rollouts and augmented/virtual reality products.
Meta Platforms (META – $172.19) CEO Mark Zuckerberg told employees that Meta has cut plans to hire engineers by at least 30% this year, from 10,000 to 6,000-7,000, and warned them to brace for a deep economic downturn. He also said the company was “turning up the heat” on performance management to weed out staffers unable to meet more aggressive goals.
“Realistically, there are probably a bunch of people at the company who shouldn’t be here,” Zuckerberg said, adding that “part of my hope by raising expectations and having more aggressive goals, and just kind of turning up the heat a little bit, is that I think some of you might decide that this place isn’t for you, and that self-selection is OK with me.”
Some took this as a negative, but I hear a CEO who is on top of the situation and willing to make hard decisions.
They just introduced a new Artificial Intelligence model that can translate 200 different languages and improves the quality of translations across their technologies by an average of 44%. It makes current technologies accessible in a wider range of languages, and in the future will help make virtual experiences more accessible, as well. Meta delivers more than 25 billion translations every day in Feed on Facebook, Instagram, and other technologies.
Meta is making major investments in AI to drive better recommendations for people, higher returns for advertisers, and faster revenue growth even in face of Apple’s advertising identifier changes and the upcoming removal of third-party cookies on Google’s platforms. Meta is shifting from having most of the content that you see on Facebook and Instagram come from your friends or follow groups to having more and more content just from AI recommendations.
META is a Buy under $250 for a $400 target in 2023 or 2024.
SoftBank (SFTBY – $20.07) bought back another 16,624,800 shares in June and has now bought 123,555,700 of the 250,000,000 authorized shares. Go Masa! SFTBY is a Buy under $25 for a first target of $50 in the next two years.
Other Tech
Rocket Lab USA (RKLB – $4.16) deployed the Capstone satellite for NASA in a very successful mission. It was Rocket Lab’s first deep space mission, paving the way for their upcoming interplanetary missions to Mars and Venus.
The company introduced Responsive Space Missions, a quick-turnaround program to go from contract to launch in a few weeks. Their next two launches for the US government’s National Reconnaissance Office will be within 10 days of each other. NROL-162 will launch from Rocket Lab Launch Complex 1’s Pad A no earlier than July 12, with NROL-199 scheduled to launch from Pad B no earlier than July 22.
These twin missions will be a demonstration of responsive launch under NRO’s Rapid Acquisition of a Small Rocket (RASR) contract for launching small satellites through a streamlined, commercial approach, and are the third and fourth missions contracted to Rocket Lab by the NRO under the contract. NROL-151 (RASR-1) was successfully deployed to space on a dedicated Electron launch in early 2020, followed by RASR-2 on another Electron launch in June 2020. RKLB is a Buy up to $13 for my $30+ target as low earth orbit satellites and space exploration grow.
Primary Risk: A new competitor emerges.
Probable time of next financing: None needed
Inflation MegaShift
Gold ($1,738.50) couldn’t hold $1,800 as the US dollar hit a 20-year high and the yellow metal closed yesterday at a 2022 low. The SPDR Gold Shares (GLD) had nine consecutive down days through yesterday, tying its record losing streaks that ended on July 23, 2015, and October 6, 2016. Both saw 4%+ rallies during the next couple of weeks, but then lower lows.
The gold fractals are cruising along in one of the longest consolidations I’ve ever seen. The break from the 38.2% retracement level at $1,842 means the 61.8% retracement level at $1,705 is the next line in the sand. I expect it to hold and an uptrend to start from there. We’ll see.
I’ve been wrong in expecting dollar weakness due to the unprecedented money printing by the Fed. I don’t care much about dollar strength or weakness against other fiat currencies, but I expected them all to be weak against hard assets. That’s happened in some cases – real estate, art, some commodities – but not for precious metals recently. I still think it is inevitable, perhaps beginning when the Fed backs off – as they will.
Miners & Related
Paramount Gold Nevada (PZG – $0.47) said Oregon regulators approved the two most critical Baseline Data Reports related to key environmental aspects of the Grassy Mountain gold mine, Ground Water and Geochemistry. Now the regulators will complete their review of the most recent Consolidated Permit Application to determine completeness. Then the state will initiate the Environmental Assessment, which incorporates all the 22 pre-approved Baseline Data Reports plus the Cultural Resource Report, and will direct the permitting agencies to write draft permits. PZG is a Buy under $1 for a $10 target as gold moves higher.
Primary Risk: Prices of precious metals fall due to US dollar strength.
Probable time of next financing: Second half of 2022
Sandstorm Gold (SAND – $5.81) had record sales and revenue in the June quarter. They sold 19,200 attributable ounces of gold for $36.0 million. Cost of sales was $5.3 million resulting in cash operating margins of approximately $1,590 per attributable gold equivalent ounce. SAND is a Buy under $10 for a $25 target.
Primary Risk: Prices of precious metals fall due to US dollar strength.
Cryptocurrencies
Cryptocurrencies are a diversifying asset that offer a unique opportunity to make (or lose!) a lot of money quickly. You can easily buy Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies at Coinbase, Block, or Robinhood.
Bitcoin (BTC-USD on Yahoo – $21,670.66) has started to rally off its panic low under $19,000. Now is the time to buy.
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BTC-USD, ETH-USD, GBTC and ETHE are Strong Buys.
Primary Risk: Bitcoin falls due to over-regulation or is surpassed by another cryptocurrency.
Cryptocurrency.
Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC- $13.75) needs to get a spot exchange-traded fund approved. The bureaucratic civil war between the SEC and the CFTC continues, with no end in sight before the next President is sworn in. GBTC has sued the SEC and could get a settlement. GBTC is a Buy under net asset value.
Primary Risk:Bitcoin falls due to over-regulation or is surpassed by another cryptocurrency.
International & Other Recommendations
It is important to hold some non-US assets, especially in China. JPMorgan China economists wrote: “For China, there is no doubt that a material rebound is underway as the spring lockdowns have been rolled back. Following the strong trade and manufacturing reports for May, China’s PMIs roared back in June. The Caixin manufacturing output PMI surged 13.2 points to 56.4 last month, as supply chain normalization gathered pace. Reopening dynamics are also boosting service-sector activity, with the NBS services PMI jumping nearly 7 points last month (the Caixin services PMI, our preferred measure, is out next week). Looking ahead, the economy’s recovery momentum will likely carry on into 3Q and our forecast looks for GDP to jump 7.5% annual rate after contracting 5.4% in 2Q. The risk is that the reopening triggers another round of COVID, but recent developments suggest policymakers are softening their zero-tolerance stance.”
EMQQ Emerging Markets Internet & Ecommerce ETF (EMQQ – $33.19) is a Buy under $38 for a $66 target in 12 to 18 months.
Primary Risk: China falls into a recession.
KraneShares Bosera MSCI China A Share Fund (KBA – $38.18) is a Buy under $40 for a three- to five-year hold.
Primary Risk: China falls into a recession.
Morgan Stanley China A-Share Closed-End Fund (CAF – $17.00) is a Buy under $18 for a three- to five-year hold.
Primary Risk: China falls into a recession.
KraneShares CSI China Internet Exchange-Traded Fund (KWEB – $32.89) is a Buy under $40 for a double over the next three years.
Primary Risk: China falls into a recession.
Acreage Holdings (ACRDF – $0.97) completed their departure from Oregon, selling their retail operations for $6.2 million to Chalice Brands Ltd. They got $350,000 upfront, with $1 million principal payments due in January 2024 and 2025, and then $3.85 million in 2026. The note carries 12% interest. We’ll see if they can collect. ACRDF is a buy under $2 for a hold for the Canopy Growth merger and beyond.
Primary Risk: Canopy Growth does not acquire the company.
Oil – $102.16
Oil took a big drop and traded under $100 for a couple of days on recession fears. But the truth is the world is short of oil and natural gas prices are too high for utilities to burn. After the Strategic Petroleum Reserve drip stops in the fall and the true supply/demand balance emerges, I expect to see oil over $130 – perhaps way over. This looked an awful lot like someone was too leveraged for higher oil prices and their fund blew up.
The Energy Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLE) closed today down 23.9% from its all-time high, while the Technology Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLK) closed today down 25.0% from its all-time high. Really? Energy is hit almost as hard as tech? Something is wrong here. The Saudis just raised oil prices to Asia because underlying demand remains robust despite growing recessionary concerns.
The main Nord Stream pipeline that carries Russian gas to Germany is due to shut down on July 11 for ten days of maintenance, and there’s a growing fear that Moscow may not reopen it. Where are energy prices going?
The July 2026 Crude Oil Futures (CLN26.NYM – $53.16) are a Buy under $55 for a $200+ target.
The iPath Pure Beta Crude Oil Exchange-Traded Note (OIL – $31.51) is a Buy under $36 for an $80+ target.
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Three-Year-Old Russian Drummer
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Your listening to Keith Fitz-Gerald, 2:00pm Friday, July 8 Editor,
Michael Murphy CFA
Founding Editor
New World Investor
All Recommendations
Check out the complete Portfolio page HERE.
Buys
These are the stocks everyone needs to own because transformative events are happening over the next year or two, and I expect to hold them long-term.
$20-for-$1
Aptose Biosciences (APTO – $0.85) – Buy under $2.50, ultimate target $30
Bellerophon Therapeutics (BLPH – $1.20) – Buy under $5, first target $30, then $100
Compass Pathways (CMPS – $13.01) – Buy under $20, hold a long time for a 10x return
Graphite Bio (GRPH – $3.11) – Buy under $9, hold a long time
Inovio (INO – $2.10) – Buy under $7, hold a long time
Invitae (NVTA – $3.15) – Buy under $10, first target $50, then $100+
Medicenna (MDNA – $1.16) – Buy under $3, first target $20, then maybe $40
ScyNexis (SCYX – $1.92 – Buy under $2, target price $20, then $50
Other Biotech
TG Therapeutics (TGTX – $5.53) – Buy under $7, target price $25+
Tech Dominators
Apple Computer (AAPL – $146.352) – Buy under $150 for new iPhones
Corning (GLW – $32.66) – Buy under $33, target price $60
Gilead Sciences (GILD – $62.72) – Buy under $70, target price $100
Meta (FB – $172.19) – Buy under $250, target price $400
SoftBank (SFTBY – $20.07) – Buy under $25, target price $50
Other Tech
First Trust NASDAQ Cybersecurity ETF (CIBR – $43.12) – Buy under $40; 3- to 5-year hold
Fastly (FSLY – $14.02) – Buy under $20; 2- to 5-year hold to $80+
PagerDuty (PD – $27.83) – Buy under $30; 2- to 5-year hold
QuickLogic (QUIK – $8.21) – Buy under $10, target price $40
Liberty Media Acquisition Corporation (LMACA – $9.83) – Buy under $10, target price $20 to $30
Rocket Lab (RKLB – $4.16) – Buy under $13, target price $30+
Velo3D (VLD – $1.67) – Buy under $6, target price $50
Inflation
A Short-Sale or REO House – $447,000 – Buy while fixed mortgage rates are low
Bag of Junk Silver – $19.16 – hold through silver bull market
Sprott Gold Miners ETF (SGDM – $23.93) – Buy under $28, target price $50
Sprott Junior Gold Miners ETF (SGDJ – $27.17) – Buy under $39, target price $100
Sprott Physical Gold and Silver Trust (CEF – $16.18) – Buy under $18, target price $30
Global X Silver Miners ETF (SIL – $25.01) – Buy under $30, target price $50
Coeur Mining (CDE – $2.92) – Buy under $5, target price $20
First Majestic Mining (AG – $7.14) – Buy under $11, next target price $23
Paramount Gold Nevada (PZG – $0.47) – Buy under $1, first target price $10
Sandstorm Gold (SAND – $5.81) – Buy under $10, target price $25
Sprott Inc. (SII – $34.73) – Buy under $40, target price $70
Cryptocurrencies
Bitcoin (BTC-USD – $19,006.53) – Buy
Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC – $13.75) – Buy
Ethereum (ETH-USD – $1,231.47) – Buy
Grayscale Ethereum Trust (ETHE – $8.67) – Buy
International & Other Recommendations
EMQQ Emerging Markets Internet & Ecommerce ETF (EMQQ – $33.19) – Buy under $38 for a $66 target in 12 to 18 months
KraneShares Bosera MSCI China A Share Fund (KBA – $38.18) – Buy under $40 for a three- to five-year hold
Morgan Stanley China A-Shares Fund (CAF – $17.00) – Buy under $18 for a three- to five-year hold
KraneShares CSI China Internet ETF (KWEB – $32.89) – Buy under $40 for a double over the next three years
Acreage Holdings (ACRDF – $0.97) – Buy under $2 for the Canopy Growth merger
Mongolia Growth Group (MNGGF – $1.21) – Buy under $1.30; long-term hold
Energy
Crude Oil Futures – July 2026 (CLN26.NYM – $53.16) – Buy under $55; $200+ target
iPath Pure Beta Crude Oil Exchange-Traded Note (OIL – $31.51) – Buy under $36; $80+ target
Energy Fuels (UUUU – $5.39) – Buy under $8; $30 target
Holds
These are holds but not sells – yet. They could get moved back to one of the buy categories if their prices drop or outlook improves, or they could become sell recommendations in the future.
Algernon Pharmaceuticals (AGNPF – $2.68) – Hold for chronic cough results
Akebia Biotherapeutics (AKBA – $0.45) – Hold for FDA meeting
Arch Therapeutics (ARTH – $0.05) – Hold for buyout
CohBar (CWBR – $0.20) – Hold for human trials of CB5138-3
Publisher: GwynRose LLC, 5348 Vegas Drive, Suite 868, Las Vegas, NV 89108
New World Investor does not act as a personal investment adviser or advocate the purchase or sale of any security or investment for any specific individual. The recommendations and analysis presented to members are for the exclusive use of members. Members should be aware that investment markets have inherent risks and there can be no guarantee of future profits. Likewise, past performance does not assure future results. Recommendations are subject to change at any time. Nothing in this presentation should be considered personalized investment advice. No communication to you by Michael Murphy or any of our employees or contractors should be deemed as personalized investment advice.
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First!
Long time holder of ARCH and making profits. Now playing with “house money” for more than a year or two. Loosing at lot over that period. Difficult to continue holding. They have an excellent product but cannot execute the processes of research and sales. I’m about done!
Also, nobody is going to buy ARTH without any sales for years after AC5 approval. This is different from when a company buys a tiny one after the latter’s superb trial results. There would be no sales yet, but in the case of ARTH, any potential buyer would wonder why there have been minimal sales after approval long ago. A fair buyout price would be 10 cents or less, and that’s if ARTH is lucky.
I remember a firm (perhaps an old recommendation here) but also in my Philadelphia suburbs. Their big item was a sort of an alternative to Botox. But they did have an English cosmetics operation that appeared to be making a little profit.
The Hoagies served at lunch were all we shareholders got out of the deal; as shortly they went into bankruptcy
The former officers were the new new owners. I recall they lasted a while and then did another dive into nothingness…….
PS: Unless you enjoyed Philly Hoagies as the heigh of fine area cuisine forget this insert.
That was Isologen, orig symbol ILE. They went bankrupt on a Tue and got FDA approval the following Fri.
Another Outstanding Radar Report, Michael Murphy. Hope all got home from trips by air over the July 4th holiday weekend. What a mess. Now they9Dept od Transportation want 65 as max age vs 70, and many took early retirements during lokdowns. Air traffic control has got to be an increased risk operation, not necessarily for controller skill, but for radar tracking equipment maintenance issues. Our state of RIhas placed a big buy for more windmills, when we have a critical shortage of a natural gas pipeline via NY(Both Cumos and Hochul against fracking) or PA witha very large pool of natural gas and oil, I will be looking forward to some blackouts in the Northeast if summers are very hot. Keep your comments polite about national leadership, We are probably very unanimous on the profanity. CMPS looks like they have a major opportunity here with substantial data on the relationship between access, to or recreational approval of MJ and similars showing more tha associational (rather causal ) relationship between access and use by boys and young men and first break psychosis, affective mental illness (bipolar,major depression, schizo affective disorders, etc-up CMPS’ alley), sociopathy, suicide and violence) in about 20-25% of the regular users annd escalatin over the past 3-5 years in sync with the number of prescriptionsand sales dtata and in sync with those folks who are mass killers. I have written a lot to our governor, General Assembly, and health and mentl health professionals and police to put a temprary stop to recently opened recreational MJ to adults (kids will get it, I’m sure) No positive responses. Vision of financial sugar plums swimming in their heads, I guess. That’s enough for my litanies. GLTA with some recovovery of what we have lost in our portfolios.
Part of the airline issues is the antiquated air traffic control equipment. Most of it was installed in the 60’s and now our airports have too many planes all trying to land and take off at high peak times. That’s what causes the horrid delays and cancellations. If more people knew the sorry state of that equipment, there would be some public outcry to fix the crap those controllers have to deal with every day. Then too is the issue that they need to shut down the whole airport to take the old stuff off line and install the new. Something the airlines are adamant about doing. But the alternative is having a very dangerous situation at all the major hubs in the US at peak travel times. The takeaway is don’t fly at those times.
U.S. Traffic Control infrastructure obsolete and falling apart?? Sorry, you are on your own, good luck taking off and landing. With a gargantuan $60billion total financing, the Brandon Administration is only interested in the Ukraine traffic control and Air Defense.
Perhaps “Brandon” might get more money if the obstructionists would get out of the way.
Stupid simplistic bureaucratic standards about age 65 or 70 for air traffic controllers. There are many healthy elderly people with fast reaction time and good judgment, and there are plenty of young people taking drugs for diabetes which cause dizziness from hypoglycemia, drowsiness from antihistamines and pain drugs, etc.
I’ve read this 3 times and can’t make heads or tails out of it. Seems all over the place.
MM: A few words of wisdom on TGTX’s upward move this week please.
This is either a huge win or a zero from this level, depending on the FDA on the December 29 PDUFA decision on MS. Someone decided approval is likely. I agree, but I don’t expect much more upside until the decision.
Perfect ! Many Thanks.
Quick Comment on employment figure of 372K, above the estimate. Previous two months were adjusted downward, Will these be adjusted down as well? The sentiment looks negative in leisure and restaurant
business and negative 1.9% estimate in GDP is Temporary down in energy will boost again, but inflation may moderate GLTA
Inflation is definitely declining across all commodities. Tech stocks moving back up nicely. The GOP was cheering for a recession, it’s not coming.
A strong market and the killing of RoevWade is going to demolish the GOP this midterm
[4. Don’t post here about politics or religion – you aren’t going to change anyone’s mind.]
Amazingly short sited view, like you’re in another universe. More voters have converted to republican in the last year than ever before. Border crisis feeding drug influx, Afghanistan withdrawal embarrassment, is could go on a while. Biden and Harris inability to communicate without giggles and gaffes, but very adept at blaming and deflecting responsibility will certainly sink the Democratic Party. What other president in history bashed the Supreme Court – pathetic leadership that reflects on the entire party.
[4. Don’t post here about politics or religion – you aren’t going to change anyone’s mind.]
And regarding the comment on inflation, I manage a food company and food prices are not coming down, in fact they’re going up farther from here – we are limited to how much and how fast we can raise prices and we’re only 1/2 way thru where we are eventually going – there is no quick inflation fix – done costs coming down on hard goods now because they are being discounted because seasonal goods arrived too late and retailers need to move them at a loss.
Inventories are through the roof. Food is perishable but all the large retailers are going to have to cut prices on other goods. Deflationary pressure.
Basic economics.
True, deflationary pressure. But the massive food inflation, deflated still will yield too much inflation on this vital expense. Everyone needs to eat, so I don’t approve of the typical economist emphasizing core inflation, as if we don’t eat. Even core inflation is high due to excessive money printing. If core inflation deflates from 6-8% to 4%, the Fed needs to raise interest rates to about 3% to allow the long bond to yield 4% for banks to be able to make loans. Dennis Gartman is bearish since IR still have to be raised much further.
Um, maybe you haven’t noticed but half the population have had basic rights removed. I think you will be shocked in November. Get ready.
Giggles and gaffes?? Were you in a coma from 2016 to 2020?
“It’s the economy, stupid.” Always has been.
Well that will still be true but I’ll bet that a massive amount of women between 18 and 40ish are pretty pissed off.
Killing 50 year old case precedent is kind of exceptional .. don’t you think? Can you think of another such situation as per the supremes?
I note that Corning Glass is perhaps the oldest listing here.
They usually were rated at $35-40 with a goal of $60-65. Since the highest actual price was never much over $40, how about dropping it from the list here.
Based on the “Law or Preversity”, perhaps the actual market price might get it over $50 soon.
Thus this otherwise great firm can at least also become a decent pick here.
3.3% yield + a very good stock buyback program. Earnings up ~13% this year and 12%+ next year. GLW gets much of Biden’s $5 billion for fiberoptic broadband in rural areas. Very well-run company. “Over $50 soon.”
GLW is basically flat for 5 years. I dumped it for Enphase a few months ago. So far so good.
Trouble is I have held this stock for ages before I ever heard of MM, and their stock has never gotten anywhere near that number. The do make great products and do pay a dividend but in terms of buying power today vs. then; I have a big loss in buying power
I wonder why no one has asked who Ever Cheated Obiden into Office to Please Come Pickup Your Idiot ?
Decades ago, I first heard him speak on TV.
He asked “why what I the first member of my family to go to college”.
I remember yelling into TV screen
“Declining academic standards.”
The reason that nobody has asked the random words you typed is because they are gibberish and unintelligible.
If you quit looking at the world with your head up your ASS you won’t spew bullshit.
If my head was up my ass how could I possibly spew bullshit? You need a lesson in basic anatomy and probably a repeat of kindergarten.
Michael, it must be crowded in there with your boyfriend there too. I still get a kick at your wife laughing at that comment. Congrats on getting a Tesla before they jacked up the prices.
A typo of “what” should have been “was”.
Gee. “gibberish” and “unintelligible” are big words you got.
Keith Fitz-Gerald 2PM – did anyone get a copy of this. I did not find a way (do not have a prepaired access) Download procedure of a replay would be a help.
(I have heard him on the Money Show and find his presentations always good.)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fzKf8h6E8xc
Keith is the second guest starting at 22:35.
I guess the actually number of Twitter bots was worked out by Musk’s team and it was crazy.
Now we wait for the bot count on Facebook …
I think Musk just realized it would be a bad investment and a lot cheaper to start his own version.
Hello, I am new to this subscription. I know Micheal Murphy is the legend when it comes to investing.
Welcome. Read the past (archive) comments to know what is going on.
@Michael Murphy and all. Very interesting article in the WSJ this morning by Andy Kessler entitled “The many reasons why ESG is a loser” Suggest you give it a scan. if you subscribe. ESG with initial good intentions has become highly political and now woke with measures of “gender equity” or the best sales job for stocks that kowtow to political power moves. Market and stock prices are becoming more distorted as a. result.
MM, enough with the scamdemic crap. Is this the never ending pandemic? Please. Anyone still wearing a mask is an idiot. The virus is 1 micron. The virus on water vapor is 65 micron. The holes in the mask are 80 micron. Do the math. Masks don’t work. If you are on your 1st booster, 2nd booster, 5th booster… Good luck with your immune system! Rule of unintended consequences.
I think the biggest failure of the Trump administration was locking down the economy instead of making the FDA approve cheap at-home saliva test strips and isolating those with the virus until it cleared, especially those in assisted living or rest homes.
At this point, I assume anyone wearing mak is sick and trying to do me a favor, or it’s performance art and I appreciate that.
I’d add contact tracing to your list. However, too many people won’t cooperate with contact tracing or staying in isolation. Or even wearing a mask when they are infectious. Some help make it useful, but others won’t help. That’s a primary reason that Asian countries do so well reducing the impact of COVID while we haven’t done as well…they feel a sense of social responsibility to others and their country that is too often lacking here. And I doubt they face as much disinformation about COVID either.
The COVID epidemic will not go away for many years, if ever. Its a worldwide problem, not just controlling it in the USA.
Hmm, maybe Trump stating the whole thing would go away by June 2020 was an error? Just spitballing here.
When Trump got COVID, he should have tried drinking bleach like he suggested?
MM you claim to be a libertarian. You mean to say Liberal. First of all, testing is a joke. The PCR tests can not distinguish between covid and influenza. People who have had the vaccine are the ones that keep testing positive for Covid because coronavirus is in the vaccine!! When this whole fraud is over, there will be class action lawsuits everywhere and those who got vaxxed will get the parting gift of a deteriorated immune system. MM I think you finally have Biden Brain Syndrome.
Cloth masks don’t do much but N95s work. The virus can’t travel by itself, it is carried by droplets that are larger. So you might not be an idiot, but you are certainly ignorant and spreading disinformation.
“The COVID-19 virus is 0.125 microns and N95 masks only filter down to 0.3 microns so how can N95, surgical or cloth masks be effective?A: While the size of the virus itself is very small, the virus particles do not travel through the air alone. The virus needs to hitch a ride on the tiny droplets of saliva and water that are exhaled when someone coughs or sneezes, or even on dust particles. Shouting or singing can also disperse these droplets widely. If you are infected with COVID-19, you likely contracted the virus from inhaling viral-infected particles. It is also not true that N95 masks do not filter particles smaller than 0.3 microns, they can and do. There are multiple layers of fibers that carry an electrostatic charge that helps entrap these smaller particles.
While there have not been large-scale controlled trials, recent research shared in the Journal of Aerosol Science shows that masks protect people surrounding the mask-wearer. This research indicates that masks are effective at trapping exhaled air and respiratory droplets in the mask and successfully limit the number and movement of viral particles on droplets in the air. We can also draw some conclusions by inference from data demonstrating decreases in viral transmission within States where universal masking has been mandated.”
CPI up 9.1%, core CPI up 5.9%. Still high inflation. Several more IR increases are a given.
More generally, it is fallacious to cite the argument that high prices by leading to decreased demand will naturally reduce inflation. This is a superficial, limited application of the supply/demand principle. OK, the prices of X, Y, Z may go down due to reduced demand from prior inflated X, Y, Z. But then the consumer has more money to spend on other things A, B, C. Wages have risen, money printing has been unprecedented, so the substitution effect happens where A, B, C prices can rise profoundly. If the money supply is reduced, and assuming productivity stays the same, then general inflation can be reduced. So XYZ and ABC prices are reduced.
Milton Friedman remains supreme in his statement that inflation is everywhere and always a monetary phenomenon. If productivity increases, then overall supply increases, and the correct application of supply/demand will explain reduced overall inflation.
MM–please report money supply figures–M6, etc. I don’t accept tunnel vision pronouncements of demand destruction, etc. Core CPI is meaningless because everyone has to eat and use energy for heating homes, etc.
@JGMD, yes, good observations, especially since these data do not incluse energy or food. The strength and weakness of othe categories is reaal goig to hurt into the end of the year, sucha s lack of crop chemicals and downstream poor or completely destroyed agricutural operations. We are alsomvig into a very hor summer, I think, and we don’t have enought relaible energy suplies or pipeline operations to prevent mre than minor brown or blackouts, that will hurt business and and ordinary consumer consumptions. Unless Biden and crew changes it mine on regulation and squeezing oil and gas delivery systems (forget about leases that are delayed for years), what in bkue blazes are we doin with the strategic petroleum reserve.? In economic terms, it is an account receivable platying with roulette for the coming hurricane season. Yep, I think recession has more votes for it, right now, including real estate air out od most balloons. Pray, JMHO.
Retirees are being hurt by inflation. People I worked with in the 70’s retired and were doing ok. Then in the late 70’s inflation was high and these people went from middle class to poverty. This is happening now.
It appears you are near retirement or already retired. Don’t buy any speculative stocks.
We will see Michael Murphy’s assessment of what we heard this morning, but just wanted to say that the “talking points on CNBC is that this scenario is increasing unemployment from here on in, well into next year, don’t buy any stocks that have no income, (also Tepper said something like that) and that we are actually in a recession right now, because, if you look at short term data, not year to year data, you will see astounding worse information about the CPI, inflation, using that view show a lot of double digit increase item on things that folks buy fequently for themselves. My emotions were really on the depressed side, after hearing that song. Any thoughts about where we go from here? GLTA Ohh Boeing looks good today.
The new Radar Report for 7.14.22 is posted.