Dear New World Investor:
Friday at 10:00am EDT Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell will address the Kansas City Fed’s annual Jackson Hole conference. Last year he said inflation was transitory to justify not responding to already-rising prices with higher interest rates. He was wrong. This year, he is expected to take a hawkish stance, saying it’s way too early for the Fed to consider a pivot because the economy is not in a recession, the labor market is strong, and interest rates must go much higher to stop inflation. So he will be wrong on three factors instead of just one.
Powell’s basic problem is that he and everyone else, including me, have no idea what the lag time is between the Fed talking about or doing something and then that thing having an impact on the real economy. So the Fed overshoots every time and tightens or loosens for too long.
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Let’s look at his three factors.
Is the Economy in a Recession?
Yes, it is. This morning the second estimate of June quarter real Gross Domestic Product was revised to -0.6% due to upward revisions to consumer spending and inventories. That’s better than the first estimate of -0.9%, but it still has a minus sign in front of it. The March quarter was -1.6%, so we have two down quarters in a row and there has never been two down quarters in a row when we weren’t in a recession.
The upward revision to inventories just creates a drag on September quarter GDP growth, which already looks weak. The Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow estimate for September quarter real GDP growth slipped 0.2 points to +1.4% due to the weak housing data. The Blue Chip consensus is a bit lower at +1.2%.
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US new home sales plunged by 12.6% in July after a 7.1% drop in June, confirming the weak state of the housing market. The supply of new homes in the US crossed above 10 months in July, its highest level since January 2009. Every time it’s been over 10 months in the past the US has been in a recession.
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The manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index fell to 51.3 from 52.2, still in expansion territory over 50.0. But the services PMI headed deeper into contraction territory to 44.1 from 47.3. The composite PMI declined to 45.0 from 47.7, where an increase to 49.8 was expected. The US economy is 75% services.
According to S&P Global: “US private sector firms signaled a sharper fall in business activity during August. The decrease in output was the fastest seen since May 2020. The rate of contraction also outpaced anything recorded outside of the initial pandemic outbreak since the series began nearly 13-years ago.”
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Is the Labor Market Strong?
Nope. It was extremely strong, but now over half of US companies have paused hiring or announced layoffs. The trend has changed, but Powell is focused on the level, not the trend – yet. After his policies cause more employment weakness, he’ll stop raising rates but employment (a lagging indicator) will keep getting worse.
And housing leads unemployment:
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Must Interest Rates Go Much Higher to Stop Inflation?
Nope. It’s much more important that the Fed reduce their balance sheet – Quantitative Tightening – to get some of their excess money out of the system. Thanks to the strong dollar, they have a wide-open window to do this due to foreign demand for US debt. The Fed is going to increase QT to $90 billion a month in September. I think they should keep increasing it from there and leave the Fed funds rate flat around 2.75%-3.00%, which assumes another 50 basis point (bp, or 0.5 percentage points) increase at the September 21 meeting.
What Does This Mean For Us?
At 8:30am EDT tomorrow, just before Powell’s talk, we get the August Personal Consumption Expenditures Index report. This is the Fed’s favorite inflation indicator. The core PCE decreased to +4.4% in the June quarter from +5.2% in the March quarter.
Both institutional and retail investors have increased positioning for a market drop ahead of Powell’s presentation, so his speech is likely to remove a near-term overhang. There is a large amount of money waiting to be deployed on Friday. BofA’s bull-and-bear indicator remains at the zero or “maximum bearish” level for the tenth week in a row, which is often seen as a contrarian signal to buy. A more than $125 billion institutional short position is building up against the stock market, driven by hedge funds, according to BNP Paribas.
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And the American Association of Individual Investors survey has retreated a bit:
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I just don’t think the Fed will hit hard into an election, and ballots are being mailed out in a few weeks. The Fed’s real pivot is likely to change from: “We’ll hike fast and above 4% if needed, and we’ll see what happens” to “We’ll hike to 3.00% or 3.50% but we’ll keep rates there.” No 2023 cuts, but a slightly higher Fed funds rate for longer. That’s the real pivot.
Market Outlook
The S&P 500 lost 2.2% since last Thursday after touching its 200-day moving average last week. This is typical: Within the first 46 days of this bull market the Index pulled back -4.10%. At the same 46 days into the bull markets in 1962, 1970, 1974, 1987, 1998, 2002, and 2011, the S&P 500 began or completed pullbacks of -10.52%, -9.28%, -13.56%, -7.06%, -10.00% -14.71%, and -9.85%. The Index is down 11.9% year-to-date.
The Nasdaq Composite lost 2.5% and is down 19.2% for the year. The small-cap Russell 2000 dropped 1.8% and is down 12.5% in 2022.
The markets are tracking the usual midterm elections pattern, which should mean a final decline in September and numerous buying opportunities in October:
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The recent weakness is in line with the Ned Davis Research Cycle Composite. Highs are due around August 23 and September 6-8 with a final low on September 25-30. The Cycle Composite is based on historical trends – the one-year seasonal cycle, the four-year Presidential cycle, and the 10-year decennial cycle.
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The fractal dimension continues to consolidate but isn’t fully consolidated yet. There could be a pain trade up if the market breaks out of its short-term consolidation based on what Powell says, which would fully consolidate the fractal dimension and set up the next trend. Although the Cycle Composite says that would be down, there is so much money positioned for a down move that it’s hard to believe it would be deep or last long.
Top 5
Changes this week: None
Near-Term – chronological order
AAPL Apple – September 7 new iPhone introduction
OIL iPath Pure Beta Crude Oil Exchange-Traded Note – crude should rise quickly
GBTC Grayscale Bitcoin Trust – Bitcoin is coming out of one of its periodic sharp drops
META Meta – Bounce from overdone selloff
VLD Velo3D – Rapid revenue growth; low market cap
Long-Term – alphabetical order
GRPH Graphite Bio – second-generation genetic editing
NVTA Invitae – the winner-take-most of genetic testing
META Meta – a leader in the metaverse
RKLB Rocket Lab – #2 to SpaceX in space
VLD Velo3D – Return manufacturing to the US
Economy
The index of the Conference Board Top 10 Leading Indicators has a 100% success rate in anticipating every recession over the last 40+ years. By the time you get two or three consecutive negative prints, it’s a done deal. Last release was at 0%. So: Is this going to be a 2016-type growth scare only or a proper recession? Unless the Fed pivots soon – they won’t – it’s a recession.
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Coming Events
All times below are ET, and most presentations and slides are archived on the companies’ websites so you can listen to them.
Friday, August 26
PCE Index – 8:30am
Fed Chairman Powell – 10:00am – Jackson Hole speech
Tuesday, August 30
AG – First Majestic – Through 8/31 – Silver Symposium Mining and Investment Conference
Friday, September 2
August payrolls – 8:30am – +290,000 expected vs. 528,000 in July
The $20-For-$1 Stocks
Say you put $2,000 into a stock that goes from 50¢ a share to $10. The $2,000 turns into $40,000. Then you put the $40,000 into another stock that goes from 50¢ to $10. That turns the $40,000 into $800,000. You did it with two stocks, and never risked going negative more than $2,000. (Not that you won’t be mad at me if the first one works and then the second one doesn’t, taking your $40,000 to Money Heaven.)
If you can afford it – and it would not be too big a position in your portfolio – putting $2,000 into each of these 12 speculative biotechs might be a good way to start.
The market capitalizations of these recommendations are typically very low. At the same time, Initial Public Offering valuations had moved very high. We were seeing $750 million to $900 million valuations for a good preclinical/Phase 1 IPO, and even $300 million to $500 million for mediocre Phase 1s. I don’t see how investors make 5x to 10x in a reasonable, three- to four-year period if they buy at those valuations. How many biotechs have moved north of $10 billion within 5 years after pricing an IPO in the $700 million to $900 million range? Hardly any. Buying these out-of-favor, fallen, or forgotten companies that can get important products through the FDA at very low market capitalizations seems like a much better strategy to me.
Risks
Development-stage biotechs are subject to investor sentiment swings from wildly optimistic to excessively pessimistic – mostly the latter recently. After the Primary Risk for each company, I’ve added the clinical stage of their lead product, the probable time of their first FDA approval, and the probable time of their next financing.
As always, you need to think about an appropriate position size. You could buy a full position upfront and then just hold on, or buy some upfront and leave room to add more on the inevitable financings, transient clinical trial setbacks, and the like.
Algernon Pharmaceuticals (AGNPF – $3.75) closed their private placement of 373,900 units, netting about $1.25 million. They did an offering two months ago, and it looks like they are funding quarter-by-quarter. They are supported by their largest shareholder, AlphaNorth Asset Management, which bought 150,000 shares in the private placement and now owns over 13% of the company. AGNPF is a Hold for the Phase 2b IPF/chronic cough results.
Primary Risk: Ifenprodil fails in clinical trials.
Clinical stage of lead product: Phase 2/3
Probable time of first FDA approval: 2023
Probable time of next financing: 2022
Biotech MegaShift
TG Therapeutics (TGTX – $7.63) said the results of their two Phase 3 trials of ublituximab for multiple sclerosis are published in the new issue of the prestigious New England Journal of Medicine. That will help with the FDA approval due on December 28. Buy TGTX under $7 for a target price in a buyout of $25 or more after the MS drug is approved.
Primary Risk: FDA turns the MS drug down.
Clinical stage of lead product: Filed for approval.
Probable time of next FDA approval: September 28, 2022
Probable time of next financing: March 2023 quarter
Biotech & Digital Dominators MegaShift
There are at least four ways to make money in the stocks of these large, growing, dominant companies. You can:
* * Buy a stock and hold it
* * Buy a stock and write a call option against it
* * With a Level IV options account, write an out-of-the-money put option
* * With a Level IV options account, write an out-of-the-money put option and use part of the premium to buy an out-of-the-money call option
Apple (AAPL – $170.03) will introduce the iPhone 14 on September 7. AAPL is a Buy under $150 for new iPhone rollouts and augmented/virtual reality products.
Gilead Sciences (GILD – $63.59) got European Union approval for Sunlenca, the only twice-yearly HIV treatment option. They now have global approval. GILD is a Long-Term Buy under $70 for a first target of $100.
Other Tech
Fastly (FSLY – $9.79) held a webinar and live demo of their content delivery network (CDN) today. It covered how CDNs have evolved, the benefits of a modern CDN, and how to select a CDN provider based on key criteria and capabilities. You can watch it by CLICKING HERE. FSLY is a Buy up to $20 for a 2- to 5-year hold to $80+ as Compute@Edge drives customer acquisition and revenue growth.
Primary Risk:Content and applications delivery networks are a competitive area.
Probable time of next financing: None needed
PagerDuty (PD – $27.30) reports next Thursday. The consensus is expecting $88.13 million in revenues and a loss of eight cents per share. They’ve beaten the estimate for the last four quarters. PD is a Buy up to $30 for a 2- to 5-year hold as their digital operations management Software-As-A-Service gains market share.
Primary Risk:Digital operations management is a competitive area.
Probable time of next financing: None needed
QuickLogic (QUIK – $7.15) gave a fireside presentation at the Rosenblatt Virtual Technology Summit (ZOOM HERE, password is TechSummit). Rosenblatt says: “The “Mother of All Cycles” is underway. Our thesis, “The Age of AI Scaling, Mother of All Cycles,” posits that the setup of the current semiconductor cycle is a rare planetary alignment of market forces, which include Artificial Intelligence and AI at the Edge. We see the current cycle being driven by exponential growth in AI intensity and TCO/efficiency that is driving demand beyond any cycle that the Technology sector has ever witnessed, in which demand will significantly outstrip supply and demonstrate Moore’s Law’s inability to meet this scale intensity. In addition, there is a sense of urgency in strategic product initiatives and a structural and secular AI gap in scale that are all aligned for the Mother of All Cycles.”
CEO Brian Faith did an excellent job of positioning QUIK as a beneficiary of the Artificial Intelligence revolution. QUIK is a Buy up to $10 for my $40 target as their sensor hub is widely adopted in smartphones, tablets, and wearables.
Primary Risk: New sensor hub competitor emerges.
Probable time of next financing: None needed
Inflation MegaShift
Gold ($1,771.00) is staying as close as it can to $1,800 in the face of the strong dollar. When that pressure eases, as it always does, there is enough fractal energy to put gold to new highs.
Miners & Related
First Majestic (AG – $8.00) struck gold at the Jerritt Canyon Gold Mine in Elko County, Nevada. Infill drilling intersected 19.35 grams per tonne over 23.2 meters in a new high-grade gold zone. Nine follow-up drill holes are being planned. AG is a Buy under $11 for a $23 next target price as production increases and the price of silver rises.
Primary Risk: Prices of precious metals fall due to US dollar strength.
Cryptocurrencies
Cryptocurrencies are a diversifying asset that offer a unique opportunity to make (or lose!) a lot of money quickly. You can easily buy Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies at Coinbase, Block, or Robinhood.
Bitcoin (BTC-USD on Yahoo – $21,640.91) continues its slow but relentless climb from its mid-July lows under $20,000. A decisive break over $24,000, which I expect by the end of the year, should set off a very strong move up.
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BTC-USD, ETH-USD, GBTC and ETHE are Strong Buys.
Primary Risk: Bitcoin falls due to over-regulation or is surpassed by another cryptocurrency.
Oil – $93.05
I think it’s over for the fake “Iran deal” headlines that have depressed the price of oil – it’s obvious there is no deal. On top of that, OPEC now is saying they may cut production because the “paper” market is out of line with the physical market – real supply and demand. It looks like they’ve gotten used to $100+ oil and they like it.
Department of Energy data showed a massive ~8.1 million barrels release from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve last week, the largest ever weekly SPR drawdown. The Strategic Petroleum Reserve has fallen to a 35-year low – if something unexpected happens, we have no cushion. Much of the releases have been exported, so commercial inventories fell anyway. Cushing inventories are still scraping the bottom of the barrel at 28.5 million barrels. Cushing’s stated capacity is 90 million barrels, but realistic working capacity is 75 million because they have to leave room at the tops of the tanks for transfers. If we were really seeing huge demand destruction, Cushing would be seeing much larger builds.
The SPR dump has been effective at delaying record oil prices (and gasoline prices, for the midterms), but ultimately it cannot prevent them. I expect all-time highs for crude as soon as January as the European crisis escalates. Almost the entire European continent is now operating at electricity prices about €600 per megawatt hour. One barrel of oil equivalent = 1.70 megawatt hours. So this is roughly equivalent to $1000 (!) per barrel of oil The last decade average cost of electricity was in the €20-30/MWh range This will further motivate switching from natural gas to oil for power generation and heat this winter. Got OIL?
The July 2026 Crude Oil Futures (CLN26.NYM – $53.16) are a Buy under $55 for a $200+ target.
The iPath Pure Beta Crude Oil Exchange-Traded Note (OIL – $33.02) is a Buy under $36 for an $80+ target.
Energy Fuels (UUUU – $7.31) will benefit from both the effort to develop non-China sources of rare earth elements and the rapidly increasing interest in building nuclear reactors. Japan’s recent decision to restart more of its nuclear plants and look into developing next-generation reactors was a game-changer.
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The tide is turning for uranium.
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Pat, can I get a UUUU?
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Got uranium? UUUU is a buy under $8 for a $30 target.
Primary Risk: Uranium prices fall.
* * * * *
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* * * * *
Your navigating The Pause Editor,
Michael Murphy CFA
Founding Editor
New World Investor
All Recommendations
Check out the complete Portfolio page HERE.
Buys
These are the stocks everyone needs to own because transformative events are happening over the next year or two, and I expect to hold them long-term.
$20-for-$1
Aptose Biosciences (APTO – $0.79) – Buy under $2.50, ultimate target $30
Bellerophon Therapeutics (BLPH – $1.43) – Buy under $5, first target $30, then $100
Compass Pathways (CMPS – $18.20) – Buy under $20, hold a long time for a 10x return
Graphite Bio (GRPH – $3.92) – Buy under $9, hold a long time
Inovio (INO – $2.50) – Buy under $7, hold a long time
Invitae (NVTA – $3.52) – Buy under $10, first target $50, then $100+
Medicenna (MDNA – $1.03) – Buy under $3, first target $20, then maybe $40
ScyNexis (SCYX – $2.71) – Buy under $2, target price $20, then $50
Other Biotech
TG Therapeutics (TGTX – $7.63) – Buy under $7, target price $25+
Tech Dominators
Apple Computer (AAPL – $170.03) – Buy under $150 for new iPhones
Corning (GLW – $35.86) – Buy under $33, target price $60
Gilead Sciences (GILD – $63.59) – Buy under $70, target price $100
Meta (META – $168.78) – Buy under $250, target price $400
SoftBank (SFTBY – $20.82) – Buy under $25, target price $50
Other Tech
First Trust NASDAQ Cybersecurity ETF (CIBR – $45.29) – Buy under $40; 3- to 5-year hold
Fastly (FSLY – $9.79) – Buy under $20; 2- to 5-year hold to $80+
PagerDuty (PD – $27.30) – Buy under $30; 2- to 5-year hold
QuickLogic (QUIK – $7.15) – Buy under $10, target price $40
Liberty Media Acquisition Corporation (LMACA – $9.86) – Buy under $10, target price $20 to $30
Rocket Lab (RKLB – $5.51) – Buy under $13, target price $30+
Velo3D (VLD – $4.47) – Buy under $6, target price $50
Inflation
A Short-Sale or REO House – $447,000 – Buy while fixed mortgage rates are low
Bag of Junk Silver – ($19.11) – hold through silver bull market
Sprott Gold Miners ETF (SGDM – $22.83) – Buy under $28, target price $50
Sprott Junior Gold Miners ETF (SGDJ – $27.52) – Buy under $39, target price $100
Sprott Physical Gold and Silver Trust (CEF – $16.28) – Buy under $18, target price $30
Global X Silver Miners ETF (SIL – $25.10) – Buy under $30, target price $50
Coeur Mining (CDE – $3.14) – Buy under $5, target price $20
First Majestic Mining (AG – $8.00) – Buy under $11, next target price $23
Paramount Gold Nevada (PZG – $0.40) – Buy under $1, first target price $10
Sandstorm Gold (SAND – $6.24) – Buy under $10, target price $25
Sprott Inc. (SII – $38.19) – Buy under $40, target price $70
Cryptocurrencies
Bitcoin (BTC-USD – $ 21,640.91 ) – Buy
Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC – $13.40) – Buy
Ethereum (ETH-USD – $1,698.89) – Buy
Grayscale Ethereum Trust (ETHE – $13.20) – Buy
International & Other Recommendations
EMQQ Emerging Markets Internet & Ecommerce ETF (EMQQ – $32.08) – Buy under $38 for a $66 target in 12 to 18 months
KraneShares Bosera MSCI China A Share Fund (KBA – $34.61) – Buy under $40 for a three- to five-year hold
Morgan Stanley China A-Shares Fund (CAF – $15.03) – Buy under $18 for a three- to five-year hold
KraneShares CSI China Internet ETF (KWEB – $30.54) – Buy under $40 for a double over the next three years
Acreage Holdings (ACRDF – $1.02) – Buy under $2 for the Canopy Growth merger
Mongolia Growth Group (MNGGF – $1.35) – Buy under $1.30; long-term hold
Energy
Crude Oil Futures – July 2026 (CLN26.NYM – $53.16) – Buy under $55; $200+ target
iPath Pure Beta Crude Oil Exchange-Traded Note (OIL – $33.02) – Buy under $36; $80+ target
Energy Fuels (UUUU – $7.31) – Buy under $8; $30 target
Holds
These are holds but not sells – yet. They could get moved back to one of the buy categories if their prices drop or outlook improves, or they could become sell recommendations in the future.
Algernon Pharmaceuticals (AGNPF – $3.75) – Hold for IPF/chronic cough trial
Akebia Biotherapeutics (AKBA – $0.40) – Hold for FDA meeting
Arch Therapeutics (ARTH – $0.03) – Hold for buyout
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1st in a long time.
segundo
NGENF is quiet due to delays in Australian enrollment in trials, and the partial hold. What was the partial hold about? I can’t find info on this. Thanks for your input.
They did not mention a partial hold in their August 2021 report on the June quarter, but they did mention it in their November 2021 report on the September quarter. From the November 8, 2021 prospectus supplement:”The Phase 1 study is being conducted under a partial clinical hold by the FDA pending satisfactory results from additional preclinical studies that have been requested by the FDA. Under the restrictions of the partial clinical hold, single dose administration of NVG-291 may be given to females only, and multiple dose administration of NVG-291 may be given to post-menopausal females only. Following completion of the preclinical studies requested by the FDA, NervGen intends to apply to the FDA to remove the restrictions of partial clinical hold and will then conduct bridging studies in healthy males and pre-menopausal females.”
2021 Annual filing on Sedar: “NervGen is currently conducting a Phase 1 trial with its lead product, NVG-291, in heathy subjects. Following completion of the MAD portion of the study and ongoing toxicology studies requested by the United States Food and Drug Administration (FDA), NervGen will seek removal of the partial clinical trial hold initiated by the FDA and perform bridging studies in healthy males and in healthy premenopausal females. Once the bridging studies are complete, NervGen intends to initiate Phase 1b/2 trials in Alzheimer’s disease, spinal cord injury and multiple sclerosis with each of these trials planned to start in 2022.”
2022 June quarter filing: “…in the second quarter NervGen submitted a comprehensive package of nonclinical studies to the United States Food and Drug Administration (FDA) to address the partial clinical hold in males and premenopausal females. The FDA has asked for clarification of certain issues, which we are now actively addressing.”
Thanks, MM for your efforts. Still, the company is not addressing the nature of any problem that led to the partial hold. Usually, a hold is due to a problem raised. All of the published nonclinical (animal) studies have been encouraging, so I am puzzled.
Chris?
third.
Can’t wait for the Oval Office to come out with some new spin /definition of recession this time!!!
Repost reply to Steve F about ARTH.
STEVE F
Reply to jcs
August 25, 2022 4:08 pm
I just want to note that the perennially, decades long recommended ARTH is now down below 3 cents. A fair chunk of money down the drain.
0
Reply
JGMD
Reply to STEVE F
August 25, 2022 10:07 pm
On YMB, someone recently posted a story about the many offerings in the high end bandage field and surgical applications. We were led to believe that AC5 is by far the best. Maybe not, but even if AC5 is the best, there are plenty of good alternatives backed up by major companies. Who wants to do business with a company like ARTH whose major business activity is getting funding to pay the few insiders and fleece 99+ percent of shareholders.
MM–many inflation plays have already had big moves, such as UUUU. If you believe the general stock market will create better buying opportunities in late Sept/Oct, does this apply also to UUUU?
Aside from Uranium, how about Hydrogen? CPWHF might be worth a look.
@ Mr Soler. good question. Technology and supply chain pricing are impediments but not impossible. need that freedom that EV’s ultimately don’t provide. See my comment abve.
@Michael Murphy, another outstanding analytic journey into uncertainty. That nuclear plant in the Ukraine that Vladimir is toying with. may create more than a minor disruption if we get a radiation plume in NATO countries. Biden’s few millions, instead of armament support pace has been slower than molasses in January. If this happens we will need an energy supply, putting some pressure on our LNG output overseas, that will also, with some intelligent policy maker in the WH call for a stop the Strategic Pump out further of the accelerating oil and gas price presures, IMHO. Second point, would like your assessment of the STRIVE ETF fund initiative to provide an alternative to ESG pricing for energy company equity pricing and capital for exploration and production to about 800-1000 largest US companies. Using your assessment of January oil pricing, adding this STRIVE DRLL has been getting nice escalation of participants, my educated guess would be a much higher energy price escalation, followed by a nice drop in the spring for US prices and similars for NATO, with Putin squeezed into a deal with NATO, if the November elections yield a Republican Congress. If not, your guess is solicited.
Re: nuclear units, the two best Climate guys Koonin and Schellenberger also advocate in that direction but we have seen so much green propaganda for solar and wind baloney and curricula in all levels of education and public pablum in the media, it will take a good 5-10 years to get a meaningful start as part of the mix, In the EV interim, fossil will be with us as cheaper and cleaner as our real basis around 50% or so for as long as the eyes may see and brain migh speculate.as the ordinary driver wants freedom that fossil fill ups provide and reject central planning and blowouts from heavy weather iffy charge stations. JMHO
Don, are you saying that Koonin and Schellenberger are very bullish on uranium, but the greenies will delay and delay and delay nuclear usage? In that case, UUUU will show a volatile uptrend.
MM–how do you get a target of $30 for UUUU, and when? In a decade?
Remember, UUUU is a Canadian company and the world is a market for Uranium. The USA is a place where Canadians go to get warm in Florida
@JGMD, Koonin takes an analytucal view mostly pointing out positives and practicality, etc. He wants us to conclude bullishness but be aware of the negative cost on populations . On the other hanfdSchellenbergen is more the public advocate after some great analysis of the entire energy spectrum and the impact of cost on populations. His bullishness is a respectful sense of population cost restraints. Be well.
Over 40 years ago, I heard a ringing endorsement of nuclear as a clean, preferred energy source from a professor of engineering. The main risk is terrorism and war near the nuclear plants, as in the current Ukraine situation.
An unconsidered massive danger for nukes is if there is a major power outage as things degenerate,causing over heating and a meltdown at many plants around the world.
Remember Chernobyl. That was the same place as what is now in Ukraine and the same Nuclear plant as no being run by the local staff and an area help by the Russians, When the Ukraine was divorced from Russiam the deal was to take the Russian Nuclear Weapons home and leave the locals the power plant which they still run. So there is a possible nuclear power plant disaster of a different type as well as shut down of power locally. Remember the disaster of the radiation cloud that hit a large area beyond the local area.
In the past I worked for the construction manager of a couple nuclear power plants. One of the main drawbacks is the extended time (many years) it takes to get to get licensed for operation.
If Arth is bought out – MM sure is a Miracle worker.
No, all it takes is $1 by a board member or two who think they can do it again if only for use on animals in another country. .
Good morning all. Well, aside from a fawning media on Powell’s comments cluster regarding stiff 75 basis point increase potential when the Data come in, was actually an open threat to the Biden crew to stop the giveaway tax and spend programs. I should include the 12 or so Republican Senators as well, which put Mitch McConnell with a dunce cap on for lack of leadership of the minority in the corner of the public square
No pivot. Added to my October Qid 20 calls this morning. Buckle up.
MM and board Any opinion on the Company Global Star, GSAT
TIA ((-:
What’s happening at 235 Walnut Street? Also don’t look for an end to the Russian/Ukrainian engagement any time soon. Since the daughter of Putin’s brain (Alexander Dugin) got killed in a car bomb recently. Putin blames Ukraine and the energy squeeze in Europe is on.Putin shut down the pipeline again siting maintenance issues and the worries again are that it won’t get back up and running. The US is going to be the new Russia in fossil fuel exports. IMO
@John Miller, I think you are right. The issue here is letting US Exports of LNG to finance their E&P capital investment financing.ESG is hurting this along with complicit banks. Take a look at DRLL which is an oil&Gas sub ETF for STRIVE to make that happen. Some brokers won’t sell that yet until it stabilizes their trading. Fidelity does. This is new and I saw its proposal in an WSJ interview article followed by a TV interview by Tucker Carlson with the guy who thought up this way to get around the ESG constraints on energy stock. It’s a gamble, but the idea seems right to me.
Thanks for your input Don. Good to know:
Anything Tucker Carlson says is suspect in my opinion.
ARTH Big reverse split between 1 for 100 to 1 for 200
DEF 14A – 08/30/2022 – Arch Therapeutics, Inc.
Just got this filing in my e-mail
Full of sound any furry and signifying nothing!
https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/312070/000119312522207620/d386666d424b5.htm
Received a rescission/Tender offer from Barclays bank regarding OIL shares.
Any one else see this and is it something to be concerned about or just BAU.
What is a rescission offer?
A rescission offer is an offer to rescind a securities transaction in which a securities law violation occurred or may have occurred. To conduct a rescission offer, the issuer of the subject securities offers to repurchase the applicable securities from relevant purchasers who acquired such securities, at their purchase price plus interest, less the amount of any interest, coupon payments, principal or other income received pursuant to the terms of the securities, or to pay rescissory damages if such securities, after being purchased, were sold, redeemed or matured at a loss.
I know this is not a new offer but the offer terms in September. Pardon me if this has been discussed previously.
Your wording seems to indicate that you may or may not have a current holding in one or more elements of this $ 20B pool
by a British Bank that is being nailed by the US IRS and needs to get out of this mess.
In short there appears to be no new “buy-in investment offer at hand,
If you have purchased some of the $20 B securities you need a lawyer. For example, what if not all of the other holders do not take up the offer as spelled out. If you have stock in the Bank itself that too could be a real for the stability and reputation of the Bank
In any case please let us know what happens, for this is so unusual.
Is anybody else thinking thinking that lithium and rare earth metals mining would be a good investment? Mine have gone up over 100%
The problem is that so much of the source materials and processing are in the hands of others (mostly China). Australia might be a target for some investments.
Canada, perhaps.
The new Radar Report for 9.1.22 is posted.