Dear New World Investor:
After the explosive Monday-Tuesday upturn, stocks retraced the whole gain. There wasn’t much news this week, but next week brings earnings from the major tech companies, plus the first estimate of September quarter real Gross Domestic Product growth Thursday morning and the latest Personal Consumption Expenditures Index Friday morning. Both of those reports precede the next Fed meeting on November 2, when they are sure to raise the funds rate by another 75 basis points (0.75 percentage points) just before the midterm elections.
Focus on this: We are entering a multiyear bull market for forgotten growth+value stocks. Valuations of many stocks are on par or below the levels at the bottom of the declines following the 2000 dot-com bubble and the 2008 Global Financial Crisis. But the world isn’t ending. Yes, wages are up and companies have to adjust to the new normal. Markets always evolve. And, as always, the strong will survive and the weak will perish.
Companies grow, their stocks go up over time, and you will make more money by taking a glass-half-full approach to investing in bear markets instead of fixating on pessimism. Are we at the absolute bottom? I don’t know and neither does anyone else. Previous declines almost never stopped at 25%, so maybe there is more downside in store over the coming months. But this graphic shows why putting money to work right now isn’t too bad an idea.
Click for larger graphic
“But the Fed…” Here is world stock market performance following each cycle’s first Federal Reserve interest rate hike.
Click for larger graphic
Meanwhile, the supposedly smarter bond market is expecting the sharpest drop in inflation ever since the 2008 crisis.
Click for larger graphic
The S&P 500 is unchanged since last Thursday and is down 23.1% year-to-date. The Nasdaq Composite also is unchanged for the week but is down much more for the year, 32.2%. The small-cap Russell 2000 dropped 1.2% and is down 24.0% in 2022.
In the latest Bank of America Fund Manager Survey, cash levels at 6.3% are at their highest levels since April 2001 – over 20 years. With cash levels well above the long-term average of 4.8%, they said the survey ”screams of full capitulation”. BofA expects stocks to bottom in the first half of 2023, presumably after a Santa Claus rally to work off the negative sentiment and then a final decline.
Click for larger graphic
I don’t think people really appreciate what’s happening in the options market right now. Last week, retail traders bought $19.9 billion worth of puts to open. They bought only $6.5 billion in calls to open. This is the first time in history that puts were 3x calls.
Click for larger graphic
The fractal dimension fully consolidated this week and is ready to support a two- to three-month trend in either direction. Seasonally, that trend should be up.
We are only two trading days away from October 25, when the buyback computers restart in full force again, buying $5 billion per day, every day until yearend. That’s $240 billion of unemotional buying.
Top 5
Changes this week: None
Near-Term – chronological order
AAPL Apple – New iPhone preorders
OIL iPath Pure Beta Crude Oil Exchange-Traded Note – crude should rise quickly
GBTC Grayscale Bitcoin Trust – Bitcoin is coming out of one of its periodic sharp drops
INO Inovio – INO-4800 China trial results and VGX-3100 HPV Phase 3 results by yearend
META Meta – Bounce from overdone selloff
VLD Velo3D – Rapid revenue growth; low market cap
Long-Term – alphabetical order
GRPH Graphite Bio – second-generation genetic editing
NVTA Invitae – the winner-take-most of genetic testing
META Meta – a leader in the metaverse
RKLB Rocket Lab – #2 to SpaceX in space
VLD Velo3D – Return manufacturing to the US
Economy
The Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow model estimate of the September quarter real GDP increased another 0.1 percentage points to +2.9%. The Blue Chip economists are at 1.3%, but much of that gap may be due to lagging updates. Goldman Sachs increased their estimate to +2.4%, which is closer to the +2.0% consensus estimate.
Click for larger graphic
In October, homebuilder confidence crashed to COVID-19 lockdown lows. This is the 10th straight monthly decline in homebuilder confidence – the longest losing streak since data began in 1985. This chart of the S&P Index and NAHB Index helps separate bear market rallies from new bull markets. Stocks tend to bottom when or right before housing bottoms. The economy has never avoided a recession with this level of deterioration in the housing market unless there was a swift monetary pivot.
Click for larger graphic
Virus Update
Daily deaths in the US were at 245 yesterday, down 84% from last year’s 1,522 on October 19, 2021.
Click for larger graphic
Coming Events
All times below are ET, and most presentations and slides are archived on the companies’ websites so you can listen to them.
Friday, October 21
SCYX – ScyNexis – 10:30am – ID Week poster presentation
Saturday, October 22
SCYX – ScyNexis – 8:00am – ID Week poster presentation
Tuesday, October 25
GLW – Corning – 8:30am – Earnings conference call
Short Interest – After the close
Wednesday, October 26
TGTX – TG Therapeutics – Through 10/28 – 5 posters at European Committee for Treatment and Research in Multiple Sclerosis (ECTRIMS) annual meeting
META – Meta Platforms – 5:00pm – Earnings conference call
Thursday, October 27
September quarter real GDP – 8:30am – +2.0% expected
GILD – Gilead – 4:30pm – Earnings conference call
AAPL – Apple – 5:00pm – Earnings conference call
Friday, October 28
PCE – Personal Consumption Expenditures Index – 8:30am – Expected: +0.5% month-over-month; +5.2% year-over-year
The $20-For-$1 Stocks
Say you put $2,000 into a stock that goes from 50¢ a share to $10. The $2,000 turns into $40,000. Then you put the $40,000 into another stock that goes from 50¢ to $10. That turns the $40,000 into $800,000. You did it with two stocks, and never risked going negative more than $2,000. (Not that you won’t be mad at me if the first one works and then the second one doesn’t, taking your $40,000 to Money Heaven.)
If you can afford it – and it would not be too big a position in your portfolio – putting $2,000 into each of these 12 speculative biotechs might be a good way to start.
The market capitalizations of these recommendations are typically very low. At the same time, Initial Public Offering valuations had moved very high. We were seeing $750 million to $900 million valuations for a good preclinical/Phase 1 IPO, and even $300 million to $500 million for mediocre Phase 1s. I don’t see how investors make 5x to 10x in a reasonable, three- to four-year period if they buy at those valuations. How many biotechs have moved north of $10 billion within 5 years after pricing an IPO in the $700 million to $900 million range? Hardly any. Buying these out-of-favor, fallen, or forgotten companies that can get important products through the FDA at very low market capitalizations seems like a much better strategy to me.
Risks
Development-stage biotechs are subject to investor sentiment swings from wildly optimistic to excessively pessimistic – mostly the latter recently. After the Primary Risk for each company, I’ve added the clinical stage of their lead product, the probable time of their first FDA approval, and the probable time of their next financing.
As always, you need to think about an appropriate position size. You could buy a full position upfront and then just hold on, or buy some upfront and leave room to add more on the inevitable financings, transient clinical trial setbacks, and the like.
Algernon Pharmaceuticals (AGNPF – $2.04) CEO Chris Moreau will be joined by Dr. Rick Strassman, the author of DMT: The Spirit Molecule and an Algernon consultant, for the November 5 Science Keynote Address at Wonderland, a leading event in the psychedelic medicine industry. They will review the positive preclinical science and data driving Algernon’s Phase 1 clinical trial of DMT for the treatment of stroke. AGNPF is a Hold for the Phase 2b IPF/chronic cough results.
Primary Risk: Ifenprodil fails in clinical trials.
Clinical stage of lead product: Phase 2/3
Probable time of first FDA approval: 2023
Probable time of next financing: 2022
Arch Therapeutics (ARTH – $0.04) presented two posters at the Symposium on Advanced Wound Care (SAWC) Fall Conference. One won the “Highest Scoring Poster Abstract; Case Series/Study” award. AC5 also was featured in the Innovation Spotlight: Shining a Light on Bold Ideas in Wound Care session with a presentation on “Changing the Healing Experience–Improving Lives with Self-Assembly” (SLIDES HERE).
The presenter, Dr. Brock Liben, featured three remarkable case studies:
Click for larger graphic
Click for larger graphic
Click for larger graphic
I wonder if we are getting close to the point where amputating someone’s foot without first trying AC5 is unethical.
At the recent shareholders meeting (VIDEO HERE and RESULTS HERE) the possible reverse split was approved by a vote of 140 million to 44 million. We’ll see what happens. ARTH is a Hold for a buyout.
Primary Risk: AC5 fails to sell or the internal trial fails.
Clinical stage of lead product: External approved. Internal trial 2023
Probable time of first FDA approval: External done. Internal 2023
Probable time of next financing: June 2022 quarter
ScyNexis (SCYX – $2.50) dropped 15% today after they “retired” their CEO, fired their Chief Commercial Officer and their Chief Financial Officer, terminated their Amplify Health sales partner and said they will out-license Brexafemme to refocus the company on the development of ibrexafungerp for severe, hospital-based indications. Both the oral and liposomal intravenous formulations are in multiple ongoing Phase 3 trials, progressing for a potential first approval in hospital indications in 2024. A Phase 2 trial of the IV formulation is planned for 2023.
This obviously is a result of the dismal launch of Brexafemme in the outpatient market, managed by the Chief Commercial Officer and Amplify Health. They said Brexa has had continued growth in prescriptions and expansion of access, including recent new coverage with a major national pharmacy benefits manager for an additional 21 million commercially insured lives. I still expect FDA approval for preventing recurrent vulvovaginal candidiasis on November 30. They said the management changes and cutbacks extend their cash runway to the June quarter of 2024.
Their Chief Medical Officer since 2015 will become President and Chief Executive Officer, effective January 1. This makes sense, as they’re back to being a development-stage company. The new Chief Financial Officer, Ivor Macleod, is a 30-year life sciences vet and was most recently CFO of Athersys. He’ll be tasked with finding a deal for Brexafemme.
My first target price now depends on how good the out-licensing deal is, but the ultimate target stays the same as the hospital market is huge. Buy SCYX under $2 for a first target price of $20 now that Brexafemme is approved and a buyout at $50.
Primary Risk: Ibrexafungerp fails to sell.
Clinical stage of lead product: Approved
Probable time of next FDA approval: late-2022
Probable time of next financing: second half of 2023 or newer
Biotech & Digital Dominators MegaShift
There are at least four ways to make money in the stocks of these large, growing, dominant companies. You can:
* * Buy a stock and hold it
* * Buy a stock and write a call option against it
* * With a Level IV options account, write an out-of-the-money put option
* * With a Level IV options account, write an out-of-the-money put option and use part of the premium to buy an out-of-the-money call option
Apple (AAPL – $143.39) introduced new iPads, an iPad Pro with the M2 chip, and a next-generation TV. Analysts are expecting $88.9 billion in revenues and $1.27 a share at next Thursday’s earnings report. AAPL is a Buy under $150 for new iPhone rollouts and augmented/virtual reality products.
Corning (GLW – $30.90) is expected to report $3.68 billion in sales and 51¢ earning per share next Tuesday morning. GLW is a Buy under $33 for the 5G cellular buildout, followed by the smartphone upgrade to use 5G services. My first target is $60 in 2023 .
Gilead Sciences (GILD – $66.16) Kite subsidiary signed a worldwide in-license deal with Refuge Biotechnologies, a synthetic biology company for cancer immunotherapy, for exclusive rights to Refuge’s proprietary gene expression platform to develop potential treatments for blood cancers.
Analysts expect Gilead to report $6.12 billion in sales and $1.48 a share next Thursday. GILD is a Long-Term Buy under $70 for a first target of $100.
Meta Platforms (META – $131.53) wants you to quarterback an NFL team through a full season to the Superbowl or just play against your friends. Interested? Sign up here. And get ready for a flood of virtual reality experiences in areas like travel, education, concerts, plays, sports, and – ahem – interpersonal relationships.
Analysts expect $27.42 billion in sales (wide range from $25.48 billion to $28.37 billion) and $1.89 per share earnings (wider range from $1.22 to $2.57) next Wednesday. META is a Buy under $250 for a $400 target in 2023 or 2024.
SoftBank (SFTBY – $19.25) bought back another 24.6 million shares in the first two weeks of October, bringing the total to 189.6 million of the 250 million authorized in November 2021. And when they finish that, they have an additional buyback authorized in August 2022. SFTBY is a Buy under $25 for a first target of $50 in the next two years.
Other Tech
Rocket Lab USA (RKLB – $4.21) won a contract from NASA’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory to supply solar panels that will power NASA’s shoe-box-sized mobile robots as part of the Cooperative Autonomous Distributed Robotic Explorers (CADRE) program. JPL is designing the CADRE robots to be able to explore as a group to collect data in the hardest-to-reach places on the moon, Mars, and beyond.
CEO Peter Beck was interviewed on NASASpaceflight.
RKLB is a Buy up to $13 for my $30+ target as low earth orbit satellites and space exploration grow.
Primary Risk: A new competitor emerges.
Probable time of next financing: None needed
Inflation MegaShift
Gold ($1,631.00) fractals are – as seemingly ever – in an extremely consolidated position. There is more than enough fractal energy to get to new all-time highs.
Miners & Related
First Majestic (AG – $7.84) September quarter production hit a new record of 8.8 million silver equivalent ounces, up 14% from the June quarter, consisting of 2.7 million ounces of silver and 67,072 ounces of gold. They’ll release earnings on November 9. AG is a Buy under $11 for a $23 next target price as production increases and the price of silver rises.
Primary Risk: Prices of precious metals fall due to US dollar strength.
Cryptocurrencies
Cryptocurrencies are diversifying assets that offer a unique opportunity to make (or lose!) a lot of money quickly. You can easily buy Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies at Coinbase, Block, or Robinhood.
Bitcoin (BTC-USD on Yahoo – $19,040.09) will benefit from MasterCard launching a new service that will allow consumers to buy and sell cryptocurrencies through their bank accounts. This will help banks with the required anti-money laundering and identify monitoring requirements, as well as transaction verification.
Bitcoin may have lost the $20,000 floor, but I suspect this drop is only temporary and this is a great time to buy the Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC- $11.28) well under net asset value.
Click for larger graphic
BTC-USD, ETH-USD, GBTC, and ETHE all are Strong Buys.
Primary Risk: Bitcoin falls due to over-regulation or is surpassed by another cryptocurrency.
Oil – $85.71
Oil is depressed by President Biden draining the Strategic Petroleum Reserve of another 15 million barrels to hold down the price of gasoline before the midterm elections. Totally legal and I suspect any President in his situation would do the same. There are 22 days of US demand left in storage, so let’s hope there’s no sudden strategic need for a reserve.
Click for larger graphic
The last time commercial diesel inventories were this low in mid-October, Harry Truman was President. New York harbor spot prices are over $200 per barrel and US diesel refining margins hit a record high today.
Click for larger graphic
OPEC’s Secretary-General said demand for energy is set to rise dramatically by 23% from 285.7 million barrels of oil equivalent per day in 2021 to 351 million barrels of oil equivalent per day in 2045. He added that the industry needs an investment of $12.1 trillion to meet that demand, and if it is not met we could see serious shortfalls and volatility. Got OIL?
The July 2026 Crude Oil Futures (CLN26.NYM – $53.16) are a Buy under $55 for a $200+ target.
The iPath Pure Beta Crude Oil Exchange-Traded Note (OIL – $30.51) is a Buy under $36 for an $80+ target.
Energy Fuels (UUUU – $6.72) will benefit when China weaponize the rare earth metal supply, as they surely will.
Click for larger graphic
And Energy Fuels has uranium. As Doomberg wrote: “Nothing focuses the mind like a crisis, and no technology is poised to benefit more from our inevitable reconciliation with physics than nuclear energy.”
UUUU is a buy under $8 for a $30 target.
Primary Risk: Uranium prices fall.
* * * * *
The Breakthrough Battery That The US Gave Away to China
* * * * *
“The gilts market collapse should have been a wake-up for everyone, except most investors assumed it was just a UK thing. What if DM markets are now living with EM rules? What if the US is now an Emerging Market but we don’t realize it yet??”
* * * * *
Your wondering if governments can direct investment wherever they want to Editor,
Michael Murphy CFA
Founding Editor
New World Investor
All Recommendations
Check out the complete Portfolio page HERE.
Buys
These are the stocks everyone needs to own because transformative events are happening over the next year or two, and I expect to hold them long-term.
$20-for-$1
Aptose Biosciences (APTO – $0.488) – Buy under $2.50, ultimate target $30
Bellerophon Therapeutics (BLPH – $1.05) – Buy under $5, first target $30, then $100
Compass Pathways (CMPS – $9.16) – Buy under $20, hold a long time for a 10x return
Graphite Bio (GRPH – $3.29) – Buy under $9, hold a long time
Inovio (INO – $1.64) – Buy under $7, hold a long time
Invitae (NVTA – $2.04) – Buy under $10, first target $50, then $100+
Medicenna (MDNA – $0.81) – Buy under $3, first target $20, then maybe $40
ScyNexis (SCYX – $2.50) – Buy under $3, target price $20, then $50
Other Biotech
TG Therapeutics (TGTX – $5.01) – Buy under $7, target price $25+
Tech Dominators
Apple Computer (AAPL – $143.39) – Buy under $150 for new iPhones
Corning (GLW – $30.90) – Buy under $33, target price $60
Gilead Sciences (GILD – $66.16) – Buy under $70, target price $100
Meta (META – $131.53) – Buy under $250, target price $400
SoftBank (SFTBY – $19.25) – Buy under $25, target price $50
Other Tech
First Trust NASDAQ Cybersecurity ETF (CIBR – $38.92) – Buy under $40; 3- to 5-year hold
Fastly (FSLY – $7.95 – Buy under $20; 2- to 5-year hold to $80+
PagerDuty (PD – $22.55) – Buy under $30; 2- to 5-year hold
QuickLogic (QUIK – $6.18) – Buy under $10, target price $40
Rocket Lab (RKLB – $4.21 – Buy under $13, target price $30+
Velo3D (VLD – $3.55) – Buy under $6, target price $50
Inflation
A Short-Sale or REO House – ($447,000) – Buy while fixed mortgage rates are low
Bag of Junk Silver – ($18.58) – hold through silver bull market
Sprott Gold Miners ETF (SGDM – $20.30) – Buy under $28, target price $50
Sprott Junior Gold Miners ETF (SGDJ – $22.44) – Buy under $39, target price $100
Sprott Physical Gold and Silver Trust (CEF – $15.38) – Buy under $18, target price $30
Global X Silver Miners ETF (SIL – $23.78) – Buy under $30, target price $50
Coeur Mining (CDE – $3.54) – Buy under $5, target price $20
First Majestic Mining (AG – $7.84) – Buy under $11, next target price $23
Paramount Gold Nevada (PZG – $0.31) – Buy under $1, first target price $10
Sandstorm Gold (SAND – $4.75) – Buy under $10, target price $25
Sprott Inc. (SII – $32.40) – Buy under $40, target price $70
Cryptocurrencies
Bitcoin (BTC-USD – $ 19,040.09) – Buy
Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC – $11.28) – Buy
Ethereum (ETH-USD – $1,280.33) – Buy
Grayscale Ethereum Trust (ETHE – $8.33) – Buy
International & Other Recommendations
EMQQ Emerging Markets Internet & Ecommerce ETF (EMQQ – $23.98) – Buy under $38 for a $66 target in 12 to 18 months
KraneShares Bosera MSCI China A Share Fund (KBA – $29.49) – Buy under $40 for a three- to five-year hold
Morgan Stanley China A-Shares Fund (CAF – $13.16) – Buy under $18 for a three- to five-year hold
KraneShares CSI China Internet ETF (KWEB – $21.34) – Buy under $40 for a double over the next three years
Acreage Holdings (ACRDF – $1.46) – Buy under $2 for the Canopy Growth merger
Mongolia Growth Group (MNGGF – $1.20) – Buy under $1.30; long-term hold
Energy
Crude Oil Futures – July 2026 (CLN26.NYM – $53.16) – Buy under $55; $200+ target
iPath Pure Beta Crude Oil Exchange-Traded Note (OIL – $30.51) – Buy under $36; $80+ target
Energy Fuels (UUUU – $6.72) – Buy under $8; $30 target
Holds
These are holds but not sells – yet. They could get moved back to one of the buy categories if their prices drop or outlook improves, or they could become sell recommendations in the future.
Algernon Pharmaceuticals (AGNPF – $2.04) – Hold for IPF/chronic cough trial
Akebia Biotherapeutics (AKBA – $0.27) – Hold for FDA meeting
Arch Therapeutics (ARTH – $0.04) – Hold for buyout
Publisher: GwynRose LLC, 5348 Vegas Drive, Suite 868, Las Vegas, NV 89108
New World Investor does not act as a personal investment adviser or advocate the purchase or sale of any security or investment for any specific individual. The recommendations and analysis presented to members are for the exclusive use of members. Members should be aware that investment markets have inherent risks and there can be no guarantee of future profits. Likewise, past performance does not assure future results. Recommendations are subject to change at any time. Nothing in this presentation should be considered personalized investment advice. No communication to you by Michael Murphy or any of our employees or contractors should be deemed as personalized investment advice.
Copyright ©GwynRoseLLC 2022
New World Investor Mastermind Group
1. Post unto others as you would have them post unto you.
2. Keep it clean, like a 1950s family television show. Your alter ego can run free on Twitter.
3. NO PERSONAL ATTACKS! If you don’t like the stock, don’t trash the person. Everyone is responsible for their own due diligence and investments.
4. Don’t post here about politics or religion – you aren’t going to change anyone’s mind. Again, NO PERSONAL ATTACKS!
5. The investment implications of something going on in politics or religion is OK.
6. Of course, there’s never a reason to slur someone based on race, religion, gender, sexual orientation, or country of national origin.
7. Please, no snark!
Print This Post
First
que rapido!
MM–I agree that some forgotten growth + value stocks could be an opportunity. BUT–stay away from spec bios. Your NWI bios continue to deteriorate far more than the general market. You don’t have the background to understand which bio companies will make it. Neither do I, and nobody else that you know of. This is strictly a lottery crap shoot and minefield.
Repost–
JGMD
Reply to Sheesh
October 20, 2022 9:29 pm
Thanks for posting. I think this is all good. The big money maker is serious hospital infections which are fatal with current drugs. SCYX can save many more lives than current drugs.
I have been critical of the trials for Brexa for outpatient use, and saw that the data was no great shakes, even if a modest improvement over cheap azoles. Sales have been poor. SCYX would suffer losses for many years for outpatient use. Good riddance. Taglietti needed to retire.
MM, I know it’s never been the focus of this newsletter, but I, for one, would be VERY interested to see your top-10 list of “forgotten growth + value stocks” for putting cash to work in the current environment.
Agreed!
Working on it.
Another great Radar, Michael Murphy. I like the consolidation for fractals of Gols as we, indeed may be seeing some inversion of thedollar strength, as utility prices in the northeast and elsewhere may be a couple of months worth of faux util- bills to all of the sectors of the market which I hope Mr Powell recognizes causes a pre-vote day rate tick down with a focus on “data” with a potential rate tick back up as very cold weather with paucity of US oil and natural gas with Russian and other dirty gas replacing it.. It ma generate that quick drop by the end of January giving a better welcome to rate drop.as we enter the beginning of the BOA 6 month slump in markets which I hope finally see US drillers getting back to work for an insistent RED Congress, with a bipartisan House and Senate overriding Presidential vetoes on energy. All IMHO One comment on TGTX. My friends whohave relativves with MS are skeptical of a drug that will stop relapse patterns. If that combo is as good as I think it is, we should see a real jump into a takeover.
GLTA
Biden has not vetoed energy. He has done everything possible to increase production. The Big OILs continue to gouge us by refusing to loser the price at the pump even though they are paying much less for the oil.
Don, seems you are only listening to the liberals explanation for high gas prices, maybe you should read the responses from the oil companies so you have a more well rounded understanding. Do you really think that suddenly the oil companies are taking advantage now, and they weren’t ever doing so before when gas was 1/2 the price it is today? Biden declared war on oil companies during his campaign, remember? Then cancelled all the pipeline projects that would’ve kept the US energy independent and prices well below what we are paying terrorist countries and enrichening them to make them more risky on the global front, so how do you explain he hasn’t vetoed fossil fuels??
Maybe he should try to explain why the average price of gas in CA is over $6/gallon while the average, including that state, sits under $4…it’s all by design to push the green agenda, despite the fact that it’s an abject failure to date…just ask Germany, the UK, etc, but leave off the comment that ‘Putin did it’…since prices are only marginally affected by his actions. The trend was already in play well before he invaded Ukraine again.
Correct.
Gas has always been more expensive on the west coast versus east coast, that’s not a new phenomena, a guess is that one reason is transportation costs as most of the oil/gas comes into the east coast and must be transported west
So you think California raises the price of gas ? How absurd. California is doing everything to help the working class by even giving money to poor people like me to help us paying for the gouging oil cos. prices.
I think you need to understand the difference between pipelines and drilling. Nobody is keeping big oil from drilling. All Biden did was cancel the last third of Keystone which was years away from completion anyway.
Sick of this talking point. US oil production is a near record highs. Do some research. It’s quite obvious that big oil is keeping prices high in part to cover their dramatic losses in 2020 and Biden is a fantastic cover for the fox watchers.
https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=pet&s=mcrfpus2&f=m
Big Oil cos are making record profits and paying no taxes while they gobble up subsides from our government. Pure greed. No concern for this country nor us citizens who are hurting.
Just lefty propaganda. Truth–big oil hesitates to make more investments such as drilling because of Biden. Next, canceling Keystone reduced the potential of more supply coming on the market, even though rig counts are still high. So Biden goes begging with first bumps to the Saudis for more oil. Releasing oil from the Strategic Reserve is good short term for lowering oil prices, but is bad in the medium/long term for supply. Typical politician behavior desperate for midterm votes in the short term.
how about the leak that came out that Biden asked the Saudis to give him one more month before they reduce production, the SOB was positioning to help the Dems not look worse for the midterm elections rather than solving the problem for all Americans
Source?
Source is Faux News
Not the liberal mainstream media you watch obviously, but even CNBC reported it.
https://www.cnbc.com/amp/2022/10/13/biden-admin-asked-saudi-arabia-to-postpone-opec-cut-by-a-month-saudis-say.html
Doesn’t Lowering oil prices helps republicans also?
Read above. Biden cancelled something that was years away from completion. Wouldn’t help now.
As far as the SPR … every politician has dipped into the reserve on election years when oil is high. Both red ties and blue ties will do anything for votes.
Keystone pipeline would’ve started operating in 2023 Michael, the cancellation definitely has a huge effect on oil and gas prices for the US and forced Biden to go begging oil from terrorist countries, there no defending his failed policies.
https://www.api.org/news-policy-and-issues/blog/2022/03/11/misunderstood-keystone-xl-a-reminder-of-the-importance-of-critical-infrastructure
I’ll skip to the relevant part: “The Keystone Pipeline System was over half complete. At the time the presidential cross-border permit was revoked, construction of the 1,120-mile Keystone XL segment was on track to be completed in 2022, with operations starting in early 2023”
Gas and oil prices down substantially from their peaks. The president has absolutely no impact on world oil prices.
Don’t you remember trump and jared sucking up to the terrorist Saudis? I don’t remember an objection then.
Turn off fox for just one evening. Can you do it?
If I hadnt listened to Fox news I wouldn’t have known about Hunters laptop (about to blow sky high and implicate his Dad) and that Sleepy, creepy Joe begged the Saudi’s to hold oil pricing one more month for the elections that you were oblivious to amongst other stories completely suppressed by the liberal news outlets you watch
BUT, IT WOULD ALMOST BE FINISHED THROUGH’ IF HE HAD NOT.
Absolutely incorrect.
guess you’re ignoring the futures market and how energy actually gets priced. It’s all based on future contracts, so killing new permits and pipelines will factor into the overall price down the road, which gets reflected today. Oil, gas, coal, and fertilizer stocks have the biggest upside for the next decade. Can’t live without fossil fuels unless you’re willing to give up on asphalt roads, concrete, the plastics in your EV, etc…the list is literally endless, but sure, let’s kill the entire fossil fuel industry and then figure all of that out?? Might also help to build a new refinery, since the last new build was over 50 years ago…can’t wait to see the food shortages en masse, come 2023.
This administration can’t find it’s ass with both hands.
“This administration can’t find it’s ass with both hands.”
Whereas the last administration’s ass can be found on Faux News regularly.
Unfortunately fossil fuels are part of life as we know it for the short term. If the entire congress wasn’t bought and paid for by big oil for the past 30 years we might have progressed more. I’d still like someone to explain to me how a US president controls world wide oil prices.
For an alternative, look at ENPH. Absolutely crushing it. There is your future.
Michael, what happens on Oct. 25 that triggers the start of corporate buybacks at $5 B per day? Is this just the historical experience of when buybacks begin in earnest?
There is a blackout period until they report earnings, after which they can restart buybacks.
ARTH – will 2023 finally be the year they generate significant sales and get the share price moving?
Some small sales will occur, but not enough to even pay TN’s unjustified salary. Amazon had losses for years, but grew exponentially due to its universality. ARTH ain’t no Amazon.
Are there any companies involved with Cobalt in the republic of Congo you can recommend? It looks like the majority of Cobalt comes from there and it’s critical to the EV market.
MM: A teaching moment
We are only two trading days away from October 25, when the buyback computers restart in full force again, buying $5 billion per day, every day until yearend. That’s $240 billion of unemotional buying.
Please explain
How much influence on NWI portfolio?
Two very big pieces of news this week for NervGen (NGENF – long)
The 1st piece I have been expecting, but am glad to see it is official at last:
The FDA released the partial hold on clinical trials that had limited the use of NervGen’s drug to only post-menopausal women. In other words, they can now give it to men and pre-menopausal women as well. I figured the partial hold would be removed eventually, but it has taken about 2.5 years to get it lifted.
The 2nd big news comes as a complete surprise. An outside group is going to fully fund a study of NervGen’s drug in combination with epidural spinal cord stimulation for Spinal Cord Injury in pigs. This study can be done much faster than a Phase 2 in humans, but positive results in pigs will be huge news for humans:
https://www.einnews.com/pr_news/597778086/combination-therapy-targets-chronic-spinal-cord-injury
MM and Michael what do you think of this company ?
11:24 AM EDT, 10/25/2022 (MT Newswires) — Gritstone bio (GRTS) said Tuesday that phase 1 results from its ongoing Coral-Boost and Coral-Cepi trials collectively showed that self-amplifying mRNA vaccine candidates against SARS-CoV-2 are well tolerated and have the potential to deliver strong and broad immunogenicity across several patient populations and settings.
Separately, the company said it will sell 6.6 million shares at $2.26 apiece and 13.3 million pre-funded warrants
Reasonably positive news at first glance. My main beef is the fact that the partial clinical hold occurred long ago, March 2020. That’s why I couldn’t find it, and it was buried by the company. The clinical hold was because of tumors in animals. Recall that ARNA’s drug Belviq initially showed large tumors in rats. This was claimed to be irrelevant in humans for a period of time, but it was later shown to be true years later, and Belviq disappeared from the US market.
Unfortunately, I think this tumor issue will hang on the heads of the company for years. This product is likely great for healing of brain conditions, but its success depends on repeated use.
OOPS, my mistake. The partial clinical hold was for reproductive organ toxicity, not tumors. Subsequent studies showed no toxicity of this sort. However, it is common for studies to show different results. This issue is not going away and will be a drag on widespread adoption of this treatment. Perhaps older people won’t care about reproductive organ toxicity, but clinical trials will have to show no other organ toxicity. If phase 2 human trials are successful, I don’t see a buyout until large phase 3 trials are successful without any organ toxicity. Prospects for multi-bagger stock gains will be delayed until phase 3 is positive, possibly for years instead of next year. The company at present is poorly funded, so they had to go to Australia where trials are cheaper. In this respect, this company is like Algernon.
MM: with a PDUFA date of 11/30/22 for SCYX could you give us an idea if approval is a slam dunk and if it’s likely to move the stock. We’re getting near tax loss selling season which I would imagine would bring some downward pressure on the stock. Also, have recent changes at the company meant that this is much more likely to be a takeover candidate.
Thanks
The new Radar Report for 19.27.22 is posted.