Radar Report – 5.4.23

Michael Murphy
Uncategorized
2023-05-05
04
May 23

Dear New World Investor:

The Fed is following my November 3 game plan to a T:

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The Fed in March: “We anticipate that some additional policy firming may be appropriate in order to attain a stance of monetary policy that is sufficiently restrictive to return inflation to 2 percent over time.”

The Fed Yesterday: “In determining the extent to which additional policy firming may be appropriate to return inflation to 2% over time, the committee will take into account the cumulative tightening of monetary policy, the lags with which monetary policy affects economic activity and inflation, and economic and financial developments.”

I know that was a meaningful change because, in the press conference, Chairman Powell went out of his way to say it was. This headline captured the change:

Not Quite Dovish, Not Quite Hawkish, the Fed Is ‘Don-ish’ With Hikes

As they should be. Real GDP is barely growing. Manufacturing activity fell for the sixth straight month.

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The latest Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey, or JOLTs report, showed 9.6 million job openings at the end of March, down from 9.9 million in February and the lowest level since April 2021. This morning, jobless claims rose more than expected to 242,000 from 230,000 in the previous week. They were expected to rise to 238,000. The Personal Consumption Expenditures Index is trending down:

Year-over-Year Change
December 2022 5.3%
January 2023 5.4%
February 2023 5.1%
March 2023 4.2%

Next Wednesday’s headline Consumer Price Index is expected to be 4.4%, well below March’s 5.0%. Chairman Powell said: “We on the committee have a view that inflation is going to come down not so quickly. If that forecast is broadly right, it will not be appropriate to cut rates.”

Fine, dude. Just stop raising them and you just may get your soft landing in the form of a mild, short recession.

Market Outlook

The S&P 500 lost 1.8% since last Thursday as investors worried about a few regional banks failing that no one will even remember in a year. The Index is up 5.8% year-to-date. The Nasdaq Composite lost 1.4% and is up 14.3% for the year. The small-cap Russell 2000 dropped 1.9% and is down 2.4% in 2023.

The fractal dimension is stalled. We still need a couple of strong weeks to declare a new uptrend has begun.

Top 5

Changes this week: None

Near-Term – chronological order
EQT EQT –natural gas price rebound
OIL iPath Pure Beta Crude Oil Exchange-Traded Note – crude should rise quickly
BLPH Phase 3 results mid-2023
VLD Velo3D – Rapid revenue growth; low market cap

Long-Term – alphabetical order
EQT EQT – largest US natural gas company
NVTA Invitae – the winner-take-most of genetic testing
META Meta – a (the?) leader in the metaverse
RKLB Rocket Lab – #2 to SpaceX in space
VLD Velo3D – Return manufacturing to the US
GBTC Grayscale Bitcoin Trust – Bitcoin is headed for $100,000

Economy

The Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow model is again well above the Blue Chip consensus in the early estimates of current quarter real Gross Domestic Product growth at +2.7% versus a near-comatose +0.2%. GDPNow saw strength in personal consumption expenditures growth and private domestic investment growth. I suspect they’ll converge around 1.0% – we’ll see.

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Coming Events
All times below are ET, and most presentations and slides are archived on the companies’ websites so you can listen to them.

Friday, May 5
April payrolls – 8:30am – +179,000 expected, was +236,000 in March
SII- Sprott Inc. – 10:00am – Earnings conference call

Monday, May 8
AKBA – Akebia – 8:30am – Earnings conference call
APTO – Aptose Therapeutics – 5:00pm – Earnings conference call

Tuesday, May 9
CDE – Coeur Mining – 10:30am – Annual meeting
Short Interest – After the close
GILD – Gilead Sciences – 2:20pm – BofA Healthcare Conference
RKLB – Rocket Lab – 4:30pm – Earnings conference call
NVTA – Invitae – 4:30pm – Earnings conference call
TGTX – TG Therapeutics – 6:00pm – BofA Healthcare Conference

Wednesday, May 10
ENVX – Enovix – Unspec – Citi Energy & Climate Technology Conference
Consumer Price Index – 8:30am – Expected: Headline YoY +4.4%, MoM +0.2%. Core YoY +5.8%, MoM +0.5%
CDE – Coeur Mining – After the close – Earnings release; call tomorrow
SAND – SandStorm – After the close – Earnings release; call tomorrow
INO – Inovio – 4:30pm – Earnings conference call

Thursday, May 11
ENVX – Enovix – Unspec – EF Hutton Global Conference
ENVX – Enovix – Unspec – Oppenheimer Emerging Growth Conference
QUIK- QuickLogic – Unspec – Oppenheimer Emerging Growth Conference
SFTBY – SoftBank – 3:30am – Earnings conference call
CMPS – Compass Pathways – 8:00am – Earnings conference call
SAND – SandStorm – 8:30am – Earnings conference call
CDE – Coeur Mining – 11:00am – Earnings conference call

Big Tech: The Biotech & Digital Dominators MegaShift
There are at least four ways to make money in the stocks of these large, growing, dominant companies. You can:
* * Buy a stock and hold it
* * Buy a stock and write a call option against it
* * With a Level IV options account, write an out-of-the-money put option
* * With a Level IV options account, write an out-of-the-money put option and use part of the premium to buy an out-of-the-money call option

Apple (AAPL – $165.79) reported a good March quarter. Revenues fell a less-than-expected 2.5% from last year to $94.84 billion, nicely above the $92.84 billion estimate. Earnings were the same as last year, $1.52, solidly above the $1.43 consensus.

On the conference call (AUDIO HERE and TRANSCRIPT HERE), management said iPhone sales rose 1.5% from last year in spite of the weakness in China to a March quarter record of $51.33 billion. As expected, Mac sales fell to $7.17 billion, down 31.3% from last year, and iPad sales fell 12.7% to $6.67 billion. Wearables, Home, and Accessories slipped 0.7% to $8.75 billion, but Services kept growing, up 5.4% year-over-year to a record $20.9 billion.

According to Forbes, Apple’s new high-yield savings account attracted nearly $400 million in deposits on the first day alone and as much as $990 million in the first four days of its launch. This underscores Apple’s ability to monetize its iPhone user base of more than 1 billion people.

For the 11th year in a row, they increased the quarterly dividend. It went up 4% to 24¢ and they added a whopping $90 billion to the stock buyback program. AAPL is a Buy under $150 for new iPhone rollouts and augmented/virtual reality products.

Gilead Sciences (GILD – $78.52) said the Committee for Medicinal Products for Human Use of the European Medicines Agency has adopted a positive opinion for Hepcludex for the treatment of adults with chronic Hepatitis D (HDV) and compensated liver disease, and recommended granting full Marketing Authorization. Chronic HDV is the most severe form of viral hepatitis. It affects about 5% of people living with hepatitis B, with a global prevalence of over 12 million people worldwide. It generally causes a more aggressive and rapid progression of liver disease than chronic hepatitis B infection alone. GILD is a Long-Term Buy under $80 for a first target of $120.

Meta Platforms (META – $233.52) introduced new personalization controls for Reels that let users customize what they want to see more or less of to see more relevant content. They also made short-form (TikTok-like) videos more discoverable on Facebook by adding Reels to the main navigation of Facebook Watch, so users can scroll seamlessly between reels and longer videos when watching content from creators on Facebook. META is a Buy under $150 for a $400 target in 2024.

SoftBank (SFTBY – $18.79) filed a confidential IPO registration with the SEC to take ARM ltd public in the fall. A successful offering would be a big plus for SoftBank’s stock. SFTBY is a Buy under $25 for a first target of $50 in the next two years.

Small Tech

Fastly (FSLY – $11.85) announced March quarter revenues up 14.8% from last year to a record $117.5 million, beating the consensus estimate for $116.16 million. The pro forma loss of nine cents a share was a penny better than the 10¢ loss estimate.

On the conference call (INVESTOR SUPPLEMENT HERE and TRANSCRIPT HERE), management said their last 12 months net retention rate was 116%, slightly less than the December quarter’s 119%.

Their dollar-based net expansion rate – how much a customer spent this quarter compared to the same quarter last year – also decreased slightly to 121% from 123% in the December quarter. The customer count was up 38 from the prior quarter to 3,100. Seven of those were enterprise customers, bringing them to 540 enterprise customers. Their average enterprise customer spend was $795,000 in the quarter, down 3% quarter-over-quarter.

For the June quarter they guided for in-line revenues of $117 million to $120 million versus the $118.7 million consensus. But their pro forma loss estimate of 9¢ to 11¢ per share was worse than the 8¢ consensus.

For the full year, they reiterated guidance for in-line revenue of $495 million to $505 million compared to the consensus for $501.29 million. They expect a pro forma loss of 21¢ to 27¢, a bit better than the 26¢ consensus. Due to higher interest rates, they now are expecting an additional $20 million of income this year. The stock fell 12.4% today, but FSLY is a Buy up to $20 for a 2- to 5-year hold to $80+ as Compute@Edge drives customer acquisition and revenue growth.
Primary Risk:Content and applications delivery networks are a competitive area.

Rocket Lab USA (RKLB – $3.88) and NASA posted the media teleconference they did or the TROPICS (Time-Resolved Observations of Precipitation structure and storm Intensity with a Constellation of Smallsats) launch.

RKLB is a Buy up to $13 for my $30+ target as low earth orbit satellites and space exploration grow.
Primary Risk: A new competitor emerges.

Velo3D (VLD – $2.01) reported March quarter revenues up 119.7% from last year to $26.8 million, beating the $27.8 million estimate. The nine-cent pro forma loss was in line with expectations.

On the conference call (SLIDES HERE and TRANSCRIPT HERE), they said bookings were up more than 30% from the December quarter to $20 million. In the June quarter, they are looking for $23 million to $29 million. They still expect full-year bookings of $100 million to $139 million, even though they removed a $15 million order from the backlog because the contract manufacturer is having trouble getting financing. The order has not been canceled, but they took it out of the backlog until they have a shipment date.

June quarter revenue guidance of $25 million to $29 million was below Wall Street’s expectation for $29.3 million. But they reiterated their full-year guidance of $120 million to $130 million, right on the $125 million consensus. 50% of that already is recognized, recurring, or booked.

Their 2023 priorities are:

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They are reducing their bill of materials costs now that the supply chain issues are behind them and getting an average selling price improvement as their mix of sales tilts towards higher-end Sapphire models. The gross profit margin improved from 6% in the December period to 11% in March, and they are on target for 30% in the December quarter. That will bring them to cash flow breakeven.

Wall Street knocked the stock down 7.2% on Tuesday in a knee-jerk reaction to the June quarter revenue guidance. This is a gift. VLD is a Buy up to $6 for my $50 target as Velo3D’s high-tolerance metal parts printing business grows.
Primary Risk:A new 3D metal printing competitor emerges.

Biotech MegaShift: The $20-For-$1 Stocks

Say you put $2,000 into a stock that goes from 50¢ a share to $10. The $2,000 turns into $40,000. Then you put the $40,000 into another stock that goes from 50¢ to $10. That turns the $40,000 into $800,000. You did it with two stocks and never risked going negative more than $2,000. (Not that you won’t be mad at me if the first one works and then the second one doesn’t, taking your $40,000 to Money Heaven.)

If you can afford it – and it would not be too big a position in your portfolio – putting $2,000 into each of these speculative biotechs might be a good way to start. Buying these out-of-favor, fallen, or forgotten companies that can get important products through the FDA at very low market capitalizations seems like a good strategy to me.

Risks

Development-stage biotechs are subject to investor sentiment swings from wildly optimistic to excessively pessimistic – mostly the latter recently. After the Primary Risk for each company, I’ve added the clinical stage of their lead product, the probable time of their first FDA approval, and the probable time of their next financing.

As always, you need to think about an appropriate position size. You could buy a full position upfront and then just hold on, or buy some upfront and leave room to add more on the inevitable financings, transient clinical trial setbacks, and the like.

Akebia Therapeutics (AKBA- $0.93) has not said anything yet about the results of today’s vote on the reverse split – if they didn’t cancel the meeting. AKBA is a Hold for the results of the FDA appeal on vadadustat.
Primary Risk: Vadadustat not approved.
   Clinical stage of lead product: Vadadustat NDA filed; CRL
   Probable time of next FDA approval: Unknown
   Probable time of next financing: Unknown

Compass Pathways (CMPS – $7.79) announced that the American Medical Association has approved a Current Procedural Terminology III code for psychedelic therapies. The full details of the code are expected to be released by the AMA in July and the code will go into effect when it is published on January 1, 2024. Once effective, the CPT code will provide physicians and other qualified healthcare professionals a means to code and seek reimbursement for delivering psychedelic therapies. CMPS is a Buy under $20 for a very long-term hold to a 10x.
Primary Risk: Their drugs fail in the clinic.
   Clinical stage of lead product: Phase 2
   Probable time of first FDA approval: 2025
   Probable time of next financing: Late 2023

TG Therapeutics (TGTX – $35.00) reported an admirable March quarter, with revenues of $7.8 million from only two months of Briumvi sales. Symphony Health had reported only $0.5 million in sales for February and $3.3 million in March, and Wall Street was expecting only $3.38 million – less than half of reality. They lost $39.2 million or 28¢, less than the 35¢ estimate.

Briumvi had recorded more than 400 prescriptions across 125 treatment centers from more than 165 healthcare providers. Over 50% of covered lives in the US have payer coverage policies in place.

On the conference call (AUDIO HERE and TRANSCRIPT HERE), CEO Mike Weiss said: “…we have seen nice adoption within our target accounts. In terms of patients, we are also seeing a nice distribution of those that are new to MS treatment, new to CD20 treatment, and also switches from other CD20s, which we believe further underscores the attractiveness of the Briumvi profile.”

They had $139.7 million in cash at the end of the quarter plus $20 million available capacity on a term loan facility. With that and their projected revenues, they can get into mid-2024. The stock jumped 19% on Monday to another 52-week high.Hold TGTX for a buyout now that the Briumvi is launched.
Primary Risk:Briumvi revenues fails to grow.
   Clinical stage of lead product: Approved
   Probable time of next FDA approval: NM
   Probable time of next financing: Second half of 2023

Inflation MegaShift

Gold ($2,059.10) looks like it will hit a new all-time high early next week. We are about $20 away from the August 2020 record. I think one more bank failure should do it. The fractal dimension shows a strong trend underway with a l-o-n-g way to run. Time to update the graphic – $3,000 top?

This year, silver industrial demand will increase 4% to a new record high. The drivers include GDP growth; investment in solar power, power grids, and 5G networks; a return to growth for consumer electronics, and rising vehicle output.

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Miners & Related

First Majestic (AG – $6.97) reported March quarter revenues up just 0.1% from last year to $157 million with breakeven on the bottom line, better than the four-cent loss expected.

As previously reported, they produced 7.6 million silver equivalent ounces, consisting of 2.5 million silver ounces and 60,594 gold ounces, up 6% from last year and 1% compared to the December quarter. Their all-in-sustaining cost (AISC) was $20.90 per silver equivalent ounce. Excluding Jerritt Canyon, AISC for the three Mexican operations was $15.38 per silver equivalent ounce.

At the end of the quarter, they had $235.9 million of cash, including $131.1 million of restricted cash. AG is a Buy under $11 for a $23 next target price as production increases and the price of silver rises.
Primary Risk: Prices of precious metals fall due to US dollar strength.

Cryptocurrencies

Cryptocurrencies are a diversifying asset that offer a unique opportunity to make (or lose!) a lot of money quickly. You can easily buy bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies at Coinbase, Block, or Robinhood.

Bitcoin (BTC-USD on Yahoo – $28,848.07) is building a base in the $28,000 to $30,000 range to gather energy for the next move up.


Click for larger graphic

BTC-USD, ETH-USD, GBTC, and ETHE are Strong Buys.
Primary Risk: Bitcoin falls due to over-regulation or is surpassed by another cryptocurrency.

Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC- $16.55) remains my favorite way to Buy bitcoin under net asset value.
Primary Risk: Bitcoin falls due to over-regulation or is surpassed by another cryptocurrency.

Commodities

Oil – $68.54

Oil fell over $6 a barrel from last Thursday as investors bet Fed Chairman Powell’s recession will trump OPEC’s pricing power. They are wrong. We’ll find out this weekend if the most recent round of supply cuts is real. It’s still way too early, but there has been a material drop in Saudi and Russia’s weekly crude exports.

The International Monetary Fund said Saudi Arabia can’t balance its budget if oil is below $80.90 a barrel, which would mean the kingdom would move back into fiscal deficit after its first surplus in almost a decade. I don’t think that’s acceptable to them. Bloomberg Economics estimates Saudi Arabia needs an oil price closer to $100 to meet all its spending commitments and ensure the stability of the social contract between the government and the citizens.

Meanwhile, despite a very warm February, US oil demand is just 287,000 barrels a day below 2019. We are going to see an all-time high in US oil demand this summer.

Click for larger graphic h/t @HFI_Research

The July 2026 Crude Oil Futures (CLN26.NYM – $62.19) are a Buy under $65 for a $200+ target. Only buy futures for all cash; do not use margin.

The iPath Pure Beta Crude Oil Exchange-Traded Note (OIL – $26.44) is a Buy under $36 for an $80+ target.

EQT (EQT – $31.04) competitor Chesapeake Energy said it could hold off bringing some wells online if low prices continue, and it had opted to conduct some maintenance in the Haynesville shale while gas prices were low.

In the longer run, we have to transition to a hydrogen economy and natural gas has a major role to play. The Intermountain Power Agency’s renewed power plant project in Utah transforms a retiring coal-fired power plant into a clean energy plant running on hydrogen. At first, the plant will use a mix of 30% hydrogen and 70% natural gas before transitioning to 100% hydrogen by 2045. The hydrogen will be supplied by the Mitsubishi Power Advanced Clean Energy production and storage hub. When complete, the Intermountain project will supply six Western states with carbon-free power.EQT is a buy under $35 for a first target of $70 and a long-term hold for much higher prices.
Primary Risk:Natural gas prices fall.

Energy Fuels (UUUU – $5.66) should benefit as uranium prices upticked (finally). Physical uranium is at a multi-month high.

Click for larger graphic

Most of the buying is from utilities as opposed to traders or financial entities. It seems that UxC – “The Industry’s Leading Source of Publications, Data Services, Market Research, and Analysis, on the Global Nuclear Fuel Cycle Markets” – finally turned bullish and redid their math, suddenly realizing that the market has been in a deficit for years. This seems to have surprised some utilities and they’ve finally come into the spot market.

Industry behemoth Cameco Corp (CCJ) noted that they have five million to seven million pounds to buy in the open market this year and have thus far bought only 400,000. UUUU is a buy under $8 for a $30 target.
Primary Risk: Uranium prices fall.

International & Other Recommendations
It is important to hold some non-US assets, especially in China.

Mongolia Growth Group (MNGGF – $0.81) finally published their fourth quarter Shareholder’s Letter. Kuppy had mostly good news, although the Mongolian economy remains mired in crisis. Their KEDM subscription data business is going well and the stock portfolio – the main reason we own MNGFF – produced a $1,031,997 unrealized gain and a $8,792,881 realized gain during 2022.

The portfolio is concentrated in investments in oil futures and futures options (including fully offsetting futures call option spreads), an oil exchange-traded fund, energy services companies, uranium, and the housing sector (mostly St. Joe, I suspect).

During the December quarter, the company repurchased 302,600 shares. At the end of the quarter, the share count was 27,710,499, or 23% fewer than the peak share count in 2016. To date, the company has repurchased a total of 8,224,800 shares. MNGGF is a buy under $1.30 for a long-term hold.
Primary Risk: Harris Kupperman makes bad investments.

* * * * *

RIP the great Gordon Lightfoot

Bob Dylan: “I can’t think of any Gordon Lightfoot song I don’t like. Every time I hear a song of his, it’s like I wish it would last forever.”

* * * * *

* * * * *

Your reading The Great Unwinding Of The Silicon Valley Editor,

Michael Murphy CFA
Founding Editor
New World Investor

All Recommendations

Check out the complete Portfolio page HERE.

Buys
These are the stocks everyone needs to own because transformative events are happening over the next year or two, and I expect to hold them long-term.

Tech Dominators
  Apple Computer (AAPL – $165.79 ) – Buy under $150 for new iPhones
  Corning (GLW – $31.37) – Buy under $33, target price $60
  Gilead Sciences (GILD – $78.52) – Buy under $80, target price $120
  Meta (META – $233.52) – Buy under $250, target price $400
  SoftBank (SFTBY – $18.79) – Buy under $25, target price $50

Other Tech
  Enovix (ENVX – $11.77) – Buy under $13; 4-year hold to $100+
  First Trust NASDAQ Cybersecurity ETF (CIBR – $35.44) – Buy under $40; 3- to 5-year hold
  Fastly (FSLY – $11.85) – Buy under $20; 2- to 5-year hold to $80+
  PagerDuty (PD – $28.01) – Buy under $30; 2- to 5-year hold
  QuickLogic (QUIK – $5.74) – Buy under $10, target price $40
  Rocket Lab (RKLB – $3.88) – Buy under $13, target price $30+
  Velo3D (VLD – $2.01) – Buy under $6, target price $50

$20-for-$1
  Aptose Biosciences (APTO – $0.52) – Buy under $2.50, ultimate target $30
  Bellerophon Therapeutics (BLPH – $9.30) – Buy under $5, first target $30, then $100
  Compass Pathways (CMPS – $7.79) – Buy under $20, hold a long time for a 10x return
  Inovio (INO – $0.83) – Buy under $7, hold a long time
  Invitae (NVTA – $1.46) – Buy under $10, first target $50, then $100+
  Medicenna (MDNA – $0.75) – Buy under $3, first target $20, then maybe $40
  ScyNexis (SCYX – $3.03) – Buy under $2.50, target price $20, then $50

Inflation
  A Short-Sale or REO House – ($447,000) – Hold
  Bag of Junk Silver – ($26.35) – hold through silver bull market
  Sprott Gold Miners ETF (SGDM – $31.04) – Buy under $28, target price $50
  Sprott Junior Gold Miners ETF (SGDJ – $34.97) – Buy under $39, target price $100
  Sprott Physical Gold and Silver Trust (CEF – $19.81) – Buy under $18, target price $30
  Global X Silver Miners ETF (SIL – $30.92) – Buy under $30, target price $50
  Coeur Mining (CDE – $3.61) – Buy under $5, target price $20
  First Majestic Mining (AG – $6.97) – Buy under $11, next target price $23
  Paramount Gold Nevada (PZG – $0.35) – Buy under $1, first target price $10
  Sandstorm Gold (SAND – $6.11) – Buy under $10, target price $25
  Sprott Inc. (SII – $4.98) – Buy under $40, target price $70

Cryptocurrencies
  Bitcoin (BTC-USD – $28,848.07) – Buy
  Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC – $16.55) – Buy
  Ethereum (ETH-USD – $1,873.35) – Buy
  Grayscale Ethereum Trust (ETHE – $9.21) – Buy

Commodities
  Crude Oil Futures – July 2026 (CLN26.NYM – $62.19) – Buy under $65; $200+ target
  iPath Pure Beta Crude Oil Exchange-Traded Note (OIL – $26.44) – Buy under $36; $80+ target
  EQT (EQT – $31.04) – Buy under $35; $70 first target
  Energy Fuels (UUUU – $5.66) – Buy under $8; $30 target
  Freeport McMoRan (FCX – $35.22) – Buy under $44; $65 target within two years

International & Other Recommendations
  EMQQ Emerging Markets Internet & Ecommerce ETF (EMQQ – $29.27) – Buy under $38 for a $66 target in 12 to 18 months
  KraneShares Bosera MSCI China A Share Fund (KBA – $25.32) – Buy under $40 for a three- to five-year hold
  Morgan Stanley China A-Shares Fund (CAF – $13.79) – Buy under $18 for a three- to five-year hold
  KraneShares CSI China Internet ETF (KWEB – $27.33) – Buy under $40 for a double over the next three years
  Acreage Holdings (ACRDF – $0.53) – Buy under $2 for the Canopy Growth merger
  Mongolia Growth Group (MNGGF – $0.81) – Buy under $1.30; long-term hold

Holds
These are holds but not sells – yet. They could get moved back to one of the buy categories if their prices drop or outlook improves, or they could become sell recommendations in the future.
  Akebia Biotherapeutics (AKBA – $0.93) – Hold for FDA decision
  Arch Therapeutics (ARTH – $2.50) – Hold for buyout
  Graphite Bio (GRPH – $3.26) – Hold until they update their strategy
  TG Therapeutics (TGTX – $35.00) – Hold for buyout at $25+

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First

MM What are you expecting from NVTA on Tuesday?

most of us lost hope – it was toyed to be the next Amazon , Tesla etc reached 60 …we should have sold – many bought around 30

I’m there with yuh. But management’s new approach has certainly changed the risk/reward in a very favourable way. So taking a chance on recouping a loss and perhaps making gains. Tuesday will be a tell.

On a Friday the Dow is up 546 points . The Nas. is up 269 points . Imagine that!! Oil is up 2.76, AAPL is up $7.78, TXN is up $4.76 FCX is up $1.25. What are the odds of that? If you listen to the media, the world is coming to an end. Just say’in.

Update from a TGTX bear: he has now upgraded the stock from Strong Sell to Sell.
TG Therapeutics’ Stock Surge: Exploring The Factors And Exercising Caution (NASDAQ:TGTX) | Seeking Alpha

I refuse to pay any more subscriptions. Can you summarize their bear case? Thanks.

see ya

its a free piece and was not worth my time to reed

it was a free SA piece

from Stefan Ayers
‘it is crucial to examine long-term trends and data to establish a more accurate outlook’.
So buy looking at the past this guy thinks he can predict the future.
another jack ass.
tgtx is good to $50 on MS more in a buyout.

the long shot is
another scrub and read on the pulled ca submissions (that I did not think would happen. ate my shair of crow and hat sandwich on that being that tgtx was my biggest holding) now that MS is plugging along they might give it another look.

MM tends to be optimistic about his picks with higher target prices than the consensus. But even he projected a buyout of “only” $25, when the stock was about $10. Early sales have been a pleasant surprise but will they continue? A reasonable buyout price is often double the market price. Did the peak of $35 one trading day ago anticipate a buyout?

yes and my experience with MM going back to mid 1990 and most of to big winners got sell recommendations to soon.
but that’s jest my experience and might not apply now.
DYODD

This dip was short lived. TGTX is headed to new highs tomorrow or very soon. Technically bullish.

what do you meant buy Technically Bullish?
didn’t we hit 48 or something like that on the first CA approval the no market orphan one.
EU approval than at least 1 year or sails after full usa and EU sales data then see what ABBV is willing to pay leading to bidding war.

Very shallow and brief pullbacks means technically bullish. For now. Fundamentally, the high growth rate in sales will have to continue in order to justify the current stock price.

MM any thoughts on NVTA’s call? Looks like they have 7 quarters cash on hand and are exceeding their forecast for revs and cutting expenses. Plus, another 5 quarters of borrowing available…all assuming they don’t continue to close the gap towards profitability.